North County Coastal monitor

[Andrew32]

The two listed homes in my 92011 neighborhood are sitting for a couple weeks now. The prior four home sales here in the last 6 months all went fast, within a week.

[sdrealtor]

And there’s a pretty simple reason why. All the prior sales were listed lower and bid up under frenzy conditions. When those houses sold at those price levels there was one buyer willing to pay that and the buyer behind them could’ve been far less. So what do the new sellers do? They take the highest price and add 5 to 10% to it. With peak selling season past and frenzy conditions gone they sit. This is a pricing issue that’s fairly easy to fix

[evolusd]

[quote=sdrealtor]And there’s a pretty simple reason why. All the prior sales were listed lower and bid up under frenzy conditions. When those houses sold at those price levels there was one buyer willing to pay that and the buyer behind them could’ve been far less. So what do the new sellers do? They take the highest price and add 5 to 10% to it. With peak selling season past and frenzy conditions gone they sit. This is a pricing issue that’s fairly easy to fix[/quote]

Looks like in his ‘hood Treviso, current listings are at high mark of recent sales, not 5-10% higher. One of the listings just sold in May and is now back on the market at same price, very strange. Given rates, achieving those same prices today seems unrealistic.

Definitely a nice little neighborhood, but those prices are insane given HOA and tax rate, IMO.

[Pbranding]

Sdr,
What’s going on with 2901 Segovia Way? Looks like it sold for 2.5 just last month and now on the market for 2.375?

Only a few homes away from that serbal home that sold for 3.325 but clearly not as nice… but if that’s not an example of home values going down I don’t know what is.

[observer]

[quote=Pbranding]Sdr,
What’s going on with 2901 Segovia Way? Looks like it sold for 2.5 just last month and now on the market for 2.375?

Only a few homes away from that serbal home that sold for 3.325 but clearly not as nice… but if that’s not an example of home values going down I don’t know what is.[/quote]
It was bought by HomeLight it seems. I guess they made the offer before the market started to cool off. They just had layoffs too.

[sdrealtor]

[quote=evolusd][quote=sdrealtor]And there’s a pretty simple reason why. All the prior sales were listed lower and bid up under frenzy conditions. When those houses sold at those price levels there was one buyer willing to pay that and the buyer behind them could’ve been far less. So what do the new sellers do? They take the highest price and add 5 to 10% to it. With peak selling season past and frenzy conditions gone they sit. This is a pricing issue that’s fairly easy to fix[/quote]

Looks like in his ‘hood Treviso, current listings are at high mark of recent sales, not 5-10% higher. One of the listings just sold in May and is now back on the market at same price, very strange. Given rates, achieving those same prices today seems unrealistic.

Definitely a nice little neighborhood, but those prices are insane given HOA and tax rate, IMO.[/quote]

Guess I should have been more clear. The homes today should be listed at what the homes that recently sold were listed at (adjusted for differences) not the 5 to 10% over asking price those houses went for.

For example there is one listed at $1.485M. The last sale of that model was listed at $1.425 and sold for $1.51M in the frenzy. This new one is not nearly as nice with basic landscaping not the $100K + the one that went for $1.51M went for had in landscape and upgrades. This one should be listed no higher than $1.35M IMO (the 1.425 – 75K for landscape and upgrades if not more). If there are multiple buyers and the market is higher than that it will get bid up. But listing that one at $1.485M (started at 1.499) is about 10% too high on the asking price

The one that is back on the market listed at 1.44M and sold during frenzy at 1.67M because one buyer was willing to pay that. Realistically should be back on the market at 1.44 and let the market sort it out but of course that one buyer wants/expects/hopes to get their money back

[sdrealtor]

[quote=Pbranding]Sdr,
What’s going on with 2901 Segovia Way? Looks like it sold for 2.5 just last month and now on the market for 2.375?

Only a few homes away from that serbal home that sold for 3.325 but clearly not as nice… but if that’s not an example of home values going down I don’t know what is.[/quote]

So a few things to say about this. That is not a great house for that model and the neighborhood. Kinda busy street, backyard all pool and minimal upgrades/mostly origianl. I knew original owner and when he sold at peak frenzy in 2005 the house sat for 4 months which says a lot about desiareability of that spot.

So then it sold to an ebuyer last month who overpaid if they paid 2.5M. However, the ebuyers usually record the sales at higher than what they actually pay so it looks better when they resell it quickly. They dont care about a few hundred extra in taxes for a couple month. The reality is the fees and sales charges are close to 10% so my guess is they actually paid closer to 2.25M not 2.5M

With that said the market is definitely slower and softer now. Those conditions hit homes like this that struggled to sell even back in the best of times in 2005 faster and harder than say a house like Serbal which just went for $3.325M There are always trophy buyers for the most coveted “prom dates”

As an aside I was interested in Homelight and searched tax records. They currently own 16 properties in SD County. Some in escrow and some sold but tax records dont reflect yet. I dont know how much they will make on these but collectively should come out without big losses if at all

[Pbranding]

[quote=sdrealtor][quote=ncsd760]2.57 to 3.1 in less than a year feels a little arbitrary now, doesn’t it? https://www.redfin.com/CA/Encinitas/209-Coral-Cove-Way-92024/home/22420675%5B/quote%5D

That’s about what the market had done. We’ll see if it sticks?[/quote]

So looks like they didn’t get their price. Was reduced and now pulled off the market.

[sdrealtor]

[quote=Pbranding][quote=sdrealtor][quote=ncsd760]2.57 to 3.1 in less than a year feels a little arbitrary now, doesn’t it? https://www.redfin.com/CA/Encinitas/209-Coral-Cove-Way-92024/home/22420675%5B/quote%5D

That’s about what the market had done. We’ll see if it sticks?[/quote]

So looks like they didn’t get their price. Was reduced and now pulled off the market.[/quote]

It looks like seller got a job relo to OC 6 months after closing. They lived there before coming here and kept house there they bought several years ago. They have a very nice very affordable place up there they likely went back to. Dont think they will have issues carrying it. Maybe rent it out and try again in Spring. Dunno?

[DaCounselor]

Seems like in addition to the inferior properties (wonky floorplans, backing to major thorofares, fixers, etc) that some of the “perfectly fine” houses are sitting longer and longer? By “perfectly fine” I mean decent floorplan, location, finishes, etc, but not buffed out trophies like the $3.325 mil Serbal house (although it feels a little strnage for me to be calling a big tract home a “trophy” but that’s what’s coming to…)

Over in the Ponderosa it looks like our man who laid out $1.8 mil just a few months ago is down $275K on his re-sale not including transaction costs, so maybe a total loss of $350Kish? Oh well, easy come easy go it’s only money.

https://www.redfin.com/CA/Carlsbad/7917-Las-Nueces-Pl-92009/home/4073150

[sdrealtor]

Definitely leaves a mark but that case is an extreme outlier. Seriously who pays cash for a home only to decide they like another better amonth later before moving in and buys it also for cash?

No question things are slower and inventory has been building. But its still way below 2019 here and we are lsiting fewer homes by a good margin. We are at the time of year when the peak listing numbers should be past. How much they drop we’ll have to see but in the face of steady albeit lower demand we could work through most of this inventory heading into next Spring. Then what?

For now we just watch and wait to see.

[ncsd760]

[quote=sdrealtor][quote=Pbranding][quote=sdrealtor][quote=ncsd760]2.57 to 3.1 in less than a year feels a little arbitrary now, doesn’t it? https://www.redfin.com/CA/Encinitas/209-Coral-Cove-Way-92024/home/22420675%5B/quote%5D

That’s about what the market had done. We’ll see if it sticks?[/quote]

So looks like they didn’t get their price. Was reduced and now pulled off the market.[/quote]

It looks like seller got a job relo to OC 6 months after closing. They lived there before coming here and kept house there they bought several years ago. They have a very nice very affordable place up there they likely went back to. Dont think they will have issues carrying it. Maybe rent it out and try again in Spring. Dunno?[/quote]

BOM today at 2.95, noting that the one right by the entrance that is the almost single-level floorplan sold for 2.57 this week. Why not just start at that price and bid up?

[sdrealtor]

[quote=ncsd760][quote=sdrealtor][quote=Pbranding][quote=sdrealtor][quote=ncsd760]2.57 to 3.1 in less than a year feels a little arbitrary now, doesn’t it? https://www.redfin.com/CA/Encinitas/209-Coral-Cove-Way-92024/home/22420675%5B/quote%5D

That’s about what the market had done. We’ll see if it sticks?[/quote]

So looks like they didn’t get their price. Was reduced and now pulled off the market.[/quote]

It looks like seller got a job relo to OC 6 months after closing. They lived there before coming here and kept house there they bought several years ago. They have a very nice very affordable place up there they likely went back to. Dont think they will have issues carrying it. Maybe rent it out and try again in Spring. Dunno?[/quote]

BOM today at 2.95, noting that the one right by the entrance that is the almost single-level floorplan sold for 2.57 this week. Why not just start at that price and bid up?[/quote]

Cant depend upon things getting bid up anymore. Its a 4br vs 3br. Its recently upgraded vs original condition. It has a nice yard with pool vs basic yard. In the end , its what they want to do now.

[sdrealtor]

New listings 23 (25) – back up after holiday

New Pendings of 22 (25) – Still demand out there

Thats +1

Closed sales at 16 (30)

Total houses for sale 128 (77) with median of $1.995M ($1.95M).

Inventory is inching up but compared to last year. We are listing similar numbers for the last 4 months but demand is quite a bit lower (maybe 30-40% lower than last year). I could see us getting around 140ish in the enxt few weeks but higher would be a bit of a surprise. The would should bleed inventory through the end of the year.

Pendings still holding around the same level each week.

Still no run for the exits to be seen up here. Still seeing a fair amount of price reductions (about 15% of listings) but most holding firm.

[sdrealtor]

New listings 13 (29) – atypical weekly drop like that this time of year

New Pendings of 19 (31) – Still demand out there

Thats -6

Closed sales at 13 (35)

Total houses for sale 127 (80) with median of $1.95M ($1.99M)

Inventory dropped by one but the bigger thing of note was the drop in new listings. Watching things as I do its feeling like less is coming on and sellers are starting to dig in. But like in MM Id like to see this persist for a few weeks before declaring peak inventory past for the year. If these trends continue both places we’ll look back at this week as when we saw the frist sign of a soft landing but still a lot TBD first

A couple notable sales this week with a great house thats been on the market over a year entering escrow around $7M

https://www.redfin.com/CA/Encinitas/2054-Sheridan-Rd-92024/home/3783690

And this one which if it closes will establish a price record by around double the previous high sale when this home sold for $11M back in 2016. At $20Mish we’ll likely welcome a new celebrity neighbor to the community

https://www.redfin.com/CA/Encinitas/532-Neptune-Ave-92024/home/4087143

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