North County Coastal monitor

[matt]

3.325M in LCV is still a major head scratcher for me.

[sdrealtor]

[quote=matt]3.325M in LCV is still a major head scratcher for me.[/quote]

They all are

[sdrealtor]

most new listings get entered wednesday through friday, so far 8 this week. We may actually get a sellers strike. Gonna try to follow this aspect closely to see if its happens

[sdrealtor]

Ran numbers but caught $10 Tuesday at Cinopolis yesterday. here they are.

New listings 16 (21) – another low number. 2 more weeks to get house on market and sell before end of summer

New Pendings of 15 (28) – demand waning but typically see one more burst to get in before school starts. Watch if that happens?

Thats +1

Closed sales at 20 (17)

Total houses for sale 141 (73) with median of $1.95M ($2.1M)

Same trend continues. New listings are atypically low but pendings dropped even more. Inventory feels plateauish for now but in 2 weeks when listings should start to drop even more and we should get last surge to get in before school starts inventory should start to drop. For now soft landing conditions are still present.

[ncsd760]

Wow, a big drop on Ravean. Haven’t seen a drop like that in a while.

I wonder how relevant the “former model” advertising becomes after a while as some of these tract homes are old enough to order a beer?

I can appreciate that those finishes may have been top of the line at the time, the inside feels like it needs modernizing for today’s buyers. Also if you’re not a local, you don’t remember when these were being built anyway, right?

[sdrealtor]

$550K drop. which seems like time to go quick. One thing i explain to clients is that upgrades are “consumed by time”. Today’s model home is an overly ornate dated home in 20 years and those upgrades often have little to no value anymore in many cases

[sdrealtor]

New listings 16 (23) – another low number. Looks like this is the eay its gonna be

New Pendings of 21 (18) – slight bump, gettin in before school starts

Thats -5

Closed sales at 16 (16)

Total houses for sale 129 (91) with median of $1.95M (didnt record it last year)

Last week was actually 131 inventory

Last year this was the peak inventory week. This year we’ve been pretty flat the last 4 weeks.

[sdrealtor]

New listings 9 (23) – even lower number. Looks like we may have a seller strike on our hands as I beleived we might. Will keep following this

New Pendings of 12 (34) – buyers aint playing either

Thats -3

Closed sales at 20 (24)

Total houses for sale 132 (86) with median of $1.95M (1.985M)

Inventory basically flat for 5 weeks now.

Last July we had 97 new listings and 107 pendings. Last July we had 67 new listings and 76 pendings.

[sdrealtor]

Been real busy with stuff so not sure if I’ll get to update this week. If not I checked some prelim numbers. Looking more and more like sellers strike. New listings are very low and pendings are out numbering them. Peak inventory seems to be in ouor rear view mirror

[XBoxBoy]

[quote=sdrealtor]Been real busy with stuff so not sure if I’ll get to update this week. [/quote]

Understandable, but hopefully you will manage to update. As much as I’ve enjoyed a lot of the other discussions on Piggington, for me, this thread has become one of the most interesting. It helps me to understand what is going on if only in a very limited location. (Three zip codes) And as a bonus, it is timely, not a month or three months behind. So, hopefully you’ll provide this real estate trend junkie his weekly fix.

[sdrealtor]

I ran the data but I’m out in the desert to catch a concert with my daughter and don’t have the historical data with me. I’ll post when i get back on Thursday. Preview more of the same. Limited new inventory, Pendings greater than new. Inventory slowly dropping. And for what it’s worth I think these three ZIP Codes are a great bellwether for Southern California. I’m on a weekly pod cast with a Good housing economist who does the best job in Southern California. I think he’s often a little bit behind and while I don’t call him out on the webcast I do in private messages. He was saying inventory would keep rising until October and I told him he was wrong and that it would peek by mid or early August. Two weeks ago I told him he was going to have to revise his Forecast soon. He disagreed then but changed it last week. I gave him a good ribbing privately lol

[sdrealtor]

New listings 12 (17) – a bit better than last week but still low.

New Pendings of 18 (28) – bargain hunting buyers seem to have come back in small numbers

Thats -6

Closed sales at 10 (25)

Total houses for sale 125 (64)

Inventory dropped a bit more. Of note, this week last year inventory dropped from 86 to 64 due to a surge in pendinings and sellers taking homes on the market that didnt sell quickly. I expect more of the later this year to be increasingly common too. While its gonna take some work, dropping below 100 by Labor Day would not shock me.

[The-Shoveler]

I have never seen the media so intent on causing a housing market decline, every other article seems to be predicting housing crash LOL.

IMO people waiting for a housing crash like 2008-11 will be probably be disappointed.

[The-Shoveler]

I have never seen the media so intent on causing a housing market decline, every other article seems to be predicting housing crash LOL.

IMO people waiting for a housing crash like 2008-11 will probably be disappointed.

[Pbranding]

[quote=The-Shoveler]I have never seen the media so intent on causing a housing market decline, every other article seems to be predicting housing crash LOL.

IMO people waiting for a housing crash like 2008-11 will probably be disappointed.[/quote]

Not 2008-11 but definitely going down and fast. I’m seeing frequent price drops in poway/scripps ranch/4s/Del Sur. Even SDR indicated a 10% give in the areas he follows closely. More rate hikes to come too.

[Author]

Posts