My prediction: DOW -500 tomorrow Tuesday Jan 22, 08….

[davelj]

The S&P futures are currently pointing to a 62 point drop around the opening, or a 4.7% decline. Now things could change before the opening. But, here’s something to keep in mind. Prior to whatever happens tomorrow, the S&P is down 9.7% so far in January, and down 6.7% in the last 6 trading sessions. These are off-the-charts outliers for any period, much less the January of an election year. So, you’ve had a bunch of quants at the big hedge funds sitting back saying, “We’ve gotta get long because what we’ve seen so far this year is EXTREMELY unlikely from a statistical standpoint, so we’re due for a HUGE bounce.” And of course it’s leveraged money. So if that bounce doesn’t materialize tomorrow, and in fact we get a wipeout, I predict continued problems for the rest of the week as the hedge funds have to unwind these poorly timed long positions to meet margin calls. Selling will beget selling.

Again, maybe Uncle Ben will show up with treats for the children. But if he doesn’t… look out below.

[davelj]

asianautica and bubble_contagion,

Keep it simple. This gets updated about every 15-20 minutes.

http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/stocks/futures.html

[davelj]

asianautica and bubble_contagion,

Keep it simple. This gets updated about every 15-20 minutes.

http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/stocks/futures.html

[davelj]

asianautica and bubble_contagion,

Keep it simple. This gets updated about every 15-20 minutes.

http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/stocks/futures.html

[davelj]

asianautica and bubble_contagion,

Keep it simple. This gets updated about every 15-20 minutes.

http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/stocks/futures.html

[davelj]

asianautica and bubble_contagion,

Keep it simple. This gets updated about every 15-20 minutes.

http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/stocks/futures.html

[an]

I still don’t get it. based on the bloomberg site, it is down 505 points. But is that for tomorrow? It also say it will open @ 12,130, which is 529 points above the value # of 11,601.

And the site bubble_contagion points out, that’s the future for march 08.

Dow Industrials (E) (ZDH8) Mar 08 12130 12140 11569 11604 -502 22:49

So the future market is predicting the DOW to drop 502 points by march 08. At least that’s what I see it as. The number on CNN is pre-market #, not future #. I guess that’s a huge difference.

[an]

I still don’t get it. based on the bloomberg site, it is down 505 points. But is that for tomorrow? It also say it will open @ 12,130, which is 529 points above the value # of 11,601.

And the site bubble_contagion points out, that’s the future for march 08.

Dow Industrials (E) (ZDH8) Mar 08 12130 12140 11569 11604 -502 22:49

So the future market is predicting the DOW to drop 502 points by march 08. At least that’s what I see it as. The number on CNN is pre-market #, not future #. I guess that’s a huge difference.

[an]

I still don’t get it. based on the bloomberg site, it is down 505 points. But is that for tomorrow? It also say it will open @ 12,130, which is 529 points above the value # of 11,601.

And the site bubble_contagion points out, that’s the future for march 08.

Dow Industrials (E) (ZDH8) Mar 08 12130 12140 11569 11604 -502 22:49

So the future market is predicting the DOW to drop 502 points by march 08. At least that’s what I see it as. The number on CNN is pre-market #, not future #. I guess that’s a huge difference.

[an]

I still don’t get it. based on the bloomberg site, it is down 505 points. But is that for tomorrow? It also say it will open @ 12,130, which is 529 points above the value # of 11,601.

And the site bubble_contagion points out, that’s the future for march 08.

Dow Industrials (E) (ZDH8) Mar 08 12130 12140 11569 11604 -502 22:49

So the future market is predicting the DOW to drop 502 points by march 08. At least that’s what I see it as. The number on CNN is pre-market #, not future #. I guess that’s a huge difference.

[an]

I still don’t get it. based on the bloomberg site, it is down 505 points. But is that for tomorrow? It also say it will open @ 12,130, which is 529 points above the value # of 11,601.

And the site bubble_contagion points out, that’s the future for march 08.

Dow Industrials (E) (ZDH8) Mar 08 12130 12140 11569 11604 -502 22:49

So the future market is predicting the DOW to drop 502 points by march 08. At least that’s what I see it as. The number on CNN is pre-market #, not future #. I guess that’s a huge difference.

[davelj]

asianautica,

Let me explain. The “open” value – 12,130 – was the first open for Dow futures trading AFTER futures trading closed in the US markets on Friday afternoon. So that “open” value that you’re seeing on Bloomberg was the open for Dow futures in Asia on Monday morning (or Sunday our time). (Remember, we haven’t traded Dow futures here in the U.S. since Friday, but they still trade them in the rest of the world.) The 11,601 value reflects the CURRENT trading price for Dow futures. The -505 is the expected decline in the SPOT Dow value when the market opens in the U.S. tomorrow morning. (Remember, you can’t have a SPOT index value until the index actually trades, which it will tomorrow morning.) Does that make sense?

[davelj]

asianautica,

Let me explain. The “open” value – 12,130 – was the first open for Dow futures trading AFTER futures trading closed in the US markets on Friday afternoon. So that “open” value that you’re seeing on Bloomberg was the open for Dow futures in Asia on Monday morning (or Sunday our time). (Remember, we haven’t traded Dow futures here in the U.S. since Friday, but they still trade them in the rest of the world.) The 11,601 value reflects the CURRENT trading price for Dow futures. The -505 is the expected decline in the SPOT Dow value when the market opens in the U.S. tomorrow morning. (Remember, you can’t have a SPOT index value until the index actually trades, which it will tomorrow morning.) Does that make sense?

[davelj]

asianautica,

Let me explain. The “open” value – 12,130 – was the first open for Dow futures trading AFTER futures trading closed in the US markets on Friday afternoon. So that “open” value that you’re seeing on Bloomberg was the open for Dow futures in Asia on Monday morning (or Sunday our time). (Remember, we haven’t traded Dow futures here in the U.S. since Friday, but they still trade them in the rest of the world.) The 11,601 value reflects the CURRENT trading price for Dow futures. The -505 is the expected decline in the SPOT Dow value when the market opens in the U.S. tomorrow morning. (Remember, you can’t have a SPOT index value until the index actually trades, which it will tomorrow morning.) Does that make sense?

[davelj]

asianautica,

Let me explain. The “open” value – 12,130 – was the first open for Dow futures trading AFTER futures trading closed in the US markets on Friday afternoon. So that “open” value that you’re seeing on Bloomberg was the open for Dow futures in Asia on Monday morning (or Sunday our time). (Remember, we haven’t traded Dow futures here in the U.S. since Friday, but they still trade them in the rest of the world.) The 11,601 value reflects the CURRENT trading price for Dow futures. The -505 is the expected decline in the SPOT Dow value when the market opens in the U.S. tomorrow morning. (Remember, you can’t have a SPOT index value until the index actually trades, which it will tomorrow morning.) Does that make sense?

[Author]

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