My prediction: DOW -500 tomorrow Tuesday Jan 22, 08….

[bubble_contagion]

DOW Futures are currently showing -450. There are no facts or data behind my prediction, just a gut feeling.

[davelj]

I hope you’re right. I just fear candy and cake (re: “surprise” rate cut) from Uncle Ben.

[davelj]

I hope you’re right. I just fear candy and cake (re: “surprise” rate cut) from Uncle Ben.

[davelj]

I hope you’re right. I just fear candy and cake (re: “surprise” rate cut) from Uncle Ben.

[davelj]

I hope you’re right. I just fear candy and cake (re: “surprise” rate cut) from Uncle Ben.

[davelj]

I hope you’re right. I just fear candy and cake (re: “surprise” rate cut) from Uncle Ben.

[gold_dredger_phd]

I am so glad that I’m renting. It’s so nice not to have to service a $6K/month mortgage with no job. Now I can join the WalMart leisure class. I plan to be out of work for at least 9 months or until I get bored.

Time to lose more money on Tuesday.

[golfproz]

well, the Asian markets are currently going down the toilet. I’m not convinced even a full 1% cut would save the ship at this point. Although I do expect uncle Ben to be up bright and early with a big red axe whacking away at the interest rate.

[golfproz]

well, the Asian markets are currently going down the toilet. I’m not convinced even a full 1% cut would save the ship at this point. Although I do expect uncle Ben to be up bright and early with a big red axe whacking away at the interest rate.

[golfproz]

well, the Asian markets are currently going down the toilet. I’m not convinced even a full 1% cut would save the ship at this point. Although I do expect uncle Ben to be up bright and early with a big red axe whacking away at the interest rate.

[golfproz]

well, the Asian markets are currently going down the toilet. I’m not convinced even a full 1% cut would save the ship at this point. Although I do expect uncle Ben to be up bright and early with a big red axe whacking away at the interest rate.

[golfproz]

well, the Asian markets are currently going down the toilet. I’m not convinced even a full 1% cut would save the ship at this point. Although I do expect uncle Ben to be up bright and early with a big red axe whacking away at the interest rate.

[gold_dredger_phd]

I am so glad that I’m renting. It’s so nice not to have to service a $6K/month mortgage with no job. Now I can join the WalMart leisure class. I plan to be out of work for at least 9 months or until I get bored.

Time to lose more money on Tuesday.

[gold_dredger_phd]

I am so glad that I’m renting. It’s so nice not to have to service a $6K/month mortgage with no job. Now I can join the WalMart leisure class. I plan to be out of work for at least 9 months or until I get bored.

Time to lose more money on Tuesday.

[gold_dredger_phd]

I am so glad that I’m renting. It’s so nice not to have to service a $6K/month mortgage with no job. Now I can join the WalMart leisure class. I plan to be out of work for at least 9 months or until I get bored.

Time to lose more money on Tuesday.

[gold_dredger_phd]

I am so glad that I’m renting. It’s so nice not to have to service a $6K/month mortgage with no job. Now I can join the WalMart leisure class. I plan to be out of work for at least 9 months or until I get bored.

Time to lose more money on Tuesday.

[Arty]

I will double that to about 1000 pts which is about 9%. Not even based on the DOW Futures, nor any facts other than currently the Asian Markets are taking another 4.5% on their Tuesday morning.

[HereWeGo]

The Dow does, at times, ignore the rest of the world. The opposite is almost never the case. The Dow futures are up significantly (off of a -520 base, admittedly.)

I think the Dow falls 300 tomorrow, maybe less.

If that’s the case, will investment capital flee from the submerging markets back to the NYSE/Amex/Nasdaq?

[kewp]

Huh, makes me wonder if the plunge-protection-team will run out of plungers….

[GoUSC]

It is absolutely staggering what is happening in the world markets guys. Up to now I have had my share of wanting the adjustment but what we are seeing here is a global correction on an absolute unprecedented level.

I am *very* nervous.

Thank god all my cash is sitting in CD’s and savings account. At least my principal is 100% protected.

[HereWeGo]

I guess emerging markets aren’t such a safehaven after all.

On the commodities front, is that a little foam I see on Ol’ Yellow’s maw?

[PadreBrian]

It won’t be that bad. I say 2% down at 4PM EST.

[an]

Base on CNN, the DOW future is up 20 points. If the FED announce an emergency rate cut, that might send the US market running from short covering and bottom feeders buying in. Only time will tell, but I don’t see a -450 points DOW future. Am I looking in the wrong place?

[bubble_contagion]

I was looking at the website below but I really don’t understand how these futures work. Is future tomorrow, 1 month?

http://sites3.barchart.com/pl/vsn/default.asp?code=XVSN&section=indices

[davelj]

asianautica and bubble_contagion,

Keep it simple. This gets updated about every 15-20 minutes.

http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/stocks/futures.html

[an]

I still don’t get it. based on the bloomberg site, it is down 505 points. But is that for tomorrow? It also say it will open @ 12,130, which is 529 points above the value # of 11,601.

And the site bubble_contagion points out, that’s the future for march 08.

Dow Industrials (E) (ZDH8) Mar 08 12130 12140 11569 11604 -502 22:49

So the future market is predicting the DOW to drop 502 points by march 08. At least that’s what I see it as. The number on CNN is pre-market #, not future #. I guess that’s a huge difference.

[davelj]

asianautica,

Let me explain. The “open” value – 12,130 – was the first open for Dow futures trading AFTER futures trading closed in the US markets on Friday afternoon. So that “open” value that you’re seeing on Bloomberg was the open for Dow futures in Asia on Monday morning (or Sunday our time). (Remember, we haven’t traded Dow futures here in the U.S. since Friday, but they still trade them in the rest of the world.) The 11,601 value reflects the CURRENT trading price for Dow futures. The -505 is the expected decline in the SPOT Dow value when the market opens in the U.S. tomorrow morning. (Remember, you can’t have a SPOT index value until the index actually trades, which it will tomorrow morning.) Does that make sense?

[an]

Ah, OK. Thanks for explaining. That makes more sense now. So does that mean we’ll gap down tomorrow, or drift down? If we gap down, is there still a possibility to drift up to positive territory by day close?

[davelj]

Absent any new “news” – like news of a preemptive rate cut – the market will likely gap down to reflect the futures trading. Two things to remember: (1) Every hedge fund of any importance trades in the global markets, so most U.S. hedge funds are already trading the Dow futures in the foreign markets that are open right now; the current Dow futures price already reflects what the marginal U.S. stock trader thinks is going to happen tomorrow; (2) There’s arbitrage at work here. If the Dow futures are trading at “X-5” and the actual Dow Index is trading at “X” the arbs are going to sell the actual Dow Index (with the higher value) and buy the Dow index futures (with the lower value) to capture a risk-free profit. But the market participants already know traders will try to do this at the opening and the current price reflects that – there won’t be a free lunch for anyone. Therefore, absent any new news, the market will likely gap down. Where it closes, who knows?

[an]

very interesting info davelj. Thanks for the write up. We’ll just have to wait and see if there is any news or not. There’s supposed to be several earning report tomorrow too. If they all turn out better than expected, the market will fill in the gap. We’ll just have to wait and see I guess.

[davelj]

Most of the earnings reports tomorrow – and most of this week – will come from banks and other financial services companies. You are one of the world’s great optimists if you expect to see better-than-expected results out of this group. I suppose stranger things have happened. But not by much.

[an]

I’m not expecting positive numbers, but I think the worst is being priced in right now. So any sign of life in those number might cause a short squeeze. We’ll just have to wait and see. But you’re right, I’m an optimist.

[an]

I’m not expecting positive numbers, but I think the worst is being priced in right now. So any sign of life in those number might cause a short squeeze. We’ll just have to wait and see. But you’re right, I’m an optimist.

[an]

I’m not expecting positive numbers, but I think the worst is being priced in right now. So any sign of life in those number might cause a short squeeze. We’ll just have to wait and see. But you’re right, I’m an optimist.

[an]

I’m not expecting positive numbers, but I think the worst is being priced in right now. So any sign of life in those number might cause a short squeeze. We’ll just have to wait and see. But you’re right, I’m an optimist.

[an]

I’m not expecting positive numbers, but I think the worst is being priced in right now. So any sign of life in those number might cause a short squeeze. We’ll just have to wait and see. But you’re right, I’m an optimist.

[temeculaguy]

I’ve got a bad feeling about tomorrow, the main stream media is already putting a fork in the market calling it the end of the bull market. The only debate is how bad not good or bad. Regardless of the numbers, the emotions will drive this to a record day IMHO. I don’t even want to look at my overseas and emerging market funds.

[Aecetia]

Thank God for 2 buck Chuck.

[davelj]

Risk has been dramatically mispriced across virtually every asset class (with the possible exception of commodities) for much of the last decade. And layers and layers of leverage have been applied to such assets. What we are witnessing is the simultaneous re-pricing of risk and an unwinding of the leverage. It must, by definition, end in tears.

But, hey, it could be worse. It could be MY money.

[davelj]

Risk has been dramatically mispriced across virtually every asset class (with the possible exception of commodities) for much of the last decade. And layers and layers of leverage have been applied to such assets. What we are witnessing is the simultaneous re-pricing of risk and an unwinding of the leverage. It must, by definition, end in tears.

But, hey, it could be worse. It could be MY money.

[davelj]

Risk has been dramatically mispriced across virtually every asset class (with the possible exception of commodities) for much of the last decade. And layers and layers of leverage have been applied to such assets. What we are witnessing is the simultaneous re-pricing of risk and an unwinding of the leverage. It must, by definition, end in tears.

But, hey, it could be worse. It could be MY money.

[davelj]

Risk has been dramatically mispriced across virtually every asset class (with the possible exception of commodities) for much of the last decade. And layers and layers of leverage have been applied to such assets. What we are witnessing is the simultaneous re-pricing of risk and an unwinding of the leverage. It must, by definition, end in tears.

But, hey, it could be worse. It could be MY money.

[davelj]

Risk has been dramatically mispriced across virtually every asset class (with the possible exception of commodities) for much of the last decade. And layers and layers of leverage have been applied to such assets. What we are witnessing is the simultaneous re-pricing of risk and an unwinding of the leverage. It must, by definition, end in tears.

But, hey, it could be worse. It could be MY money.

[HereWeGo]

There’s a fair number of significant earnings reports tomorrow – BAC, WB, JNJ, and AAPL most noteworthy. Their reports will be of great impact, IMO.

[Anonymous]

Savings accounts are FDIC protected in dollar terms,
not in real terms. Inflation, probably around 7-10% now,
is a huge risk for USD savers, as it quietly destroys
real value in terms of food, energy, etc.

Is savings “principal” really protected, given it now buys
1/3 the gasoline it did 10 years ago? Or 1/4th the house?
1/2 the milk?

I highly recommend the education provided by Ludwig von Mises
in “The Causes Of The Economic Crisis”. The US is hardly
the first debtor nation with a fiat currency trying to
print its way out of bankruptcy. And the endgame this time
is probably going to rhyme with prior ones.

[Anonymous]

Savings accounts are FDIC protected in dollar terms,
not in real terms. Inflation, probably around 7-10% now,
is a huge risk for USD savers, as it quietly destroys
real value in terms of food, energy, etc.

Is savings “principal” really protected, given it now buys
1/3 the gasoline it did 10 years ago? Or 1/4th the house?
1/2 the milk?

I highly recommend the education provided by Ludwig von Mises
in “The Causes Of The Economic Crisis”. The US is hardly
the first debtor nation with a fiat currency trying to
print its way out of bankruptcy. And the endgame this time
is probably going to rhyme with prior ones.

[Anonymous]

Savings accounts are FDIC protected in dollar terms,
not in real terms. Inflation, probably around 7-10% now,
is a huge risk for USD savers, as it quietly destroys
real value in terms of food, energy, etc.

Is savings “principal” really protected, given it now buys
1/3 the gasoline it did 10 years ago? Or 1/4th the house?
1/2 the milk?

I highly recommend the education provided by Ludwig von Mises
in “The Causes Of The Economic Crisis”. The US is hardly
the first debtor nation with a fiat currency trying to
print its way out of bankruptcy. And the endgame this time
is probably going to rhyme with prior ones.

[Anonymous]

Savings accounts are FDIC protected in dollar terms,
not in real terms. Inflation, probably around 7-10% now,
is a huge risk for USD savers, as it quietly destroys
real value in terms of food, energy, etc.

Is savings “principal” really protected, given it now buys
1/3 the gasoline it did 10 years ago? Or 1/4th the house?
1/2 the milk?

I highly recommend the education provided by Ludwig von Mises
in “The Causes Of The Economic Crisis”. The US is hardly
the first debtor nation with a fiat currency trying to
print its way out of bankruptcy. And the endgame this time
is probably going to rhyme with prior ones.

[Anonymous]

Savings accounts are FDIC protected in dollar terms,
not in real terms. Inflation, probably around 7-10% now,
is a huge risk for USD savers, as it quietly destroys
real value in terms of food, energy, etc.

Is savings “principal” really protected, given it now buys
1/3 the gasoline it did 10 years ago? Or 1/4th the house?
1/2 the milk?

I highly recommend the education provided by Ludwig von Mises
in “The Causes Of The Economic Crisis”. The US is hardly
the first debtor nation with a fiat currency trying to
print its way out of bankruptcy. And the endgame this time
is probably going to rhyme with prior ones.

[an]

if the Financials report badly but AAPL report better than expected, would have help raise the tech stocks?

[davelj]

No. If the market is already down 5%-ish and the financials report poor earnings – even if they’re in line with already expected crappy results – then Apple’s report, even if it’s good, will be irrelevant. It’s like the doctor telling you you’ve got brain cancer, but hey, it looks like you’ve lost 5 pounds. Not much comfort, really.

Something dramatic has to happen to change the overall appetite for risk and I don’t know what that would be. But good Apple earnings ain’t it. That much I know for sure.

Currently the futures are setting new lows. But you never know… strange things can happen at these junctures.

[robson]

well futures now at -650 Dow and -70 SP. With European markets on their way to another -3 to 4%, I am at the point of asking not how ours can fall this much, but how it could fall this little. This is 2 days of pent up world wide crashing. Right now the main index that seems to have faired the BEST during that time is London, which has fallen about 7.5%, not 5.5% like the futures are showing. A lot of people are gonna be waking up in about 6 hours not knowing what is waiting for them.

[Chris Scoreboard Johnston]

This is what so many of you hoped for, why be afraid, you should be thrilled. Those of us who said be careful what you wished for were talking about exactly this scenario. Obviously the market is short term oversold and will bounce sharply in the next day or two even today it could happen.

The PPT’s .75 seem to disappoint traders based on the tape, However, based on this opening being past a -4.0 std deviations based on a 60 day regression channel, it is likely to be a short term low today. Every other time in history I can find where we touched the -4.0 we had a significant bounce almost immediately.

I exited my futures long Sunday luckily when it was actually in the green from Fridays close, so I am probably going to sit this one out. Trading in this volatility is straight out gambling. If we get way down I will nibble on a few blue chip stocks I like. I took my Gold shorts off profitably last night, and am only short Cocoa at this point which is unaffected by this stuff. I am looking to put on a heavy short position on Gold during any bounce we get up from here during the next week.

[HereWeGo]

Down 300, not really all that terrible. Still a very long ways to go in the day, though.

[HereWeGo]

Down 300, not really all that terrible. Still a very long ways to go in the day, though.

[HereWeGo]

Down 300, not really all that terrible. Still a very long ways to go in the day, though.

[HereWeGo]

Down 300, not really all that terrible. Still a very long ways to go in the day, though.

[HereWeGo]

Down 300, not really all that terrible. Still a very long ways to go in the day, though.

[Chris Scoreboard Johnston]

This is what so many of you hoped for, why be afraid, you should be thrilled. Those of us who said be careful what you wished for were talking about exactly this scenario. Obviously the market is short term oversold and will bounce sharply in the next day or two even today it could happen.

The PPT’s .75 seem to disappoint traders based on the tape, However, based on this opening being past a -4.0 std deviations based on a 60 day regression channel, it is likely to be a short term low today. Every other time in history I can find where we touched the -4.0 we had a significant bounce almost immediately.

I exited my futures long Sunday luckily when it was actually in the green from Fridays close, so I am probably going to sit this one out. Trading in this volatility is straight out gambling. If we get way down I will nibble on a few blue chip stocks I like. I took my Gold shorts off profitably last night, and am only short Cocoa at this point which is unaffected by this stuff. I am looking to put on a heavy short position on Gold during any bounce we get up from here during the next week.

[Chris Scoreboard Johnston]

This is what so many of you hoped for, why be afraid, you should be thrilled. Those of us who said be careful what you wished for were talking about exactly this scenario. Obviously the market is short term oversold and will bounce sharply in the next day or two even today it could happen.

The PPT’s .75 seem to disappoint traders based on the tape, However, based on this opening being past a -4.0 std deviations based on a 60 day regression channel, it is likely to be a short term low today. Every other time in history I can find where we touched the -4.0 we had a significant bounce almost immediately.

I exited my futures long Sunday luckily when it was actually in the green from Fridays close, so I am probably going to sit this one out. Trading in this volatility is straight out gambling. If we get way down I will nibble on a few blue chip stocks I like. I took my Gold shorts off profitably last night, and am only short Cocoa at this point which is unaffected by this stuff. I am looking to put on a heavy short position on Gold during any bounce we get up from here during the next week.

[Chris Scoreboard Johnston]

This is what so many of you hoped for, why be afraid, you should be thrilled. Those of us who said be careful what you wished for were talking about exactly this scenario. Obviously the market is short term oversold and will bounce sharply in the next day or two even today it could happen.

The PPT’s .75 seem to disappoint traders based on the tape, However, based on this opening being past a -4.0 std deviations based on a 60 day regression channel, it is likely to be a short term low today. Every other time in history I can find where we touched the -4.0 we had a significant bounce almost immediately.

I exited my futures long Sunday luckily when it was actually in the green from Fridays close, so I am probably going to sit this one out. Trading in this volatility is straight out gambling. If we get way down I will nibble on a few blue chip stocks I like. I took my Gold shorts off profitably last night, and am only short Cocoa at this point which is unaffected by this stuff. I am looking to put on a heavy short position on Gold during any bounce we get up from here during the next week.

[Chris Scoreboard Johnston]

This is what so many of you hoped for, why be afraid, you should be thrilled. Those of us who said be careful what you wished for were talking about exactly this scenario. Obviously the market is short term oversold and will bounce sharply in the next day or two even today it could happen.

The PPT’s .75 seem to disappoint traders based on the tape, However, based on this opening being past a -4.0 std deviations based on a 60 day regression channel, it is likely to be a short term low today. Every other time in history I can find where we touched the -4.0 we had a significant bounce almost immediately.

I exited my futures long Sunday luckily when it was actually in the green from Fridays close, so I am probably going to sit this one out. Trading in this volatility is straight out gambling. If we get way down I will nibble on a few blue chip stocks I like. I took my Gold shorts off profitably last night, and am only short Cocoa at this point which is unaffected by this stuff. I am looking to put on a heavy short position on Gold during any bounce we get up from here during the next week.

[robson]

well futures now at -650 Dow and -70 SP. With European markets on their way to another -3 to 4%, I am at the point of asking not how ours can fall this much, but how it could fall this little. This is 2 days of pent up world wide crashing. Right now the main index that seems to have faired the BEST during that time is London, which has fallen about 7.5%, not 5.5% like the futures are showing. A lot of people are gonna be waking up in about 6 hours not knowing what is waiting for them.

[robson]

well futures now at -650 Dow and -70 SP. With European markets on their way to another -3 to 4%, I am at the point of asking not how ours can fall this much, but how it could fall this little. This is 2 days of pent up world wide crashing. Right now the main index that seems to have faired the BEST during that time is London, which has fallen about 7.5%, not 5.5% like the futures are showing. A lot of people are gonna be waking up in about 6 hours not knowing what is waiting for them.

[robson]

well futures now at -650 Dow and -70 SP. With European markets on their way to another -3 to 4%, I am at the point of asking not how ours can fall this much, but how it could fall this little. This is 2 days of pent up world wide crashing. Right now the main index that seems to have faired the BEST during that time is London, which has fallen about 7.5%, not 5.5% like the futures are showing. A lot of people are gonna be waking up in about 6 hours not knowing what is waiting for them.

[robson]

well futures now at -650 Dow and -70 SP. With European markets on their way to another -3 to 4%, I am at the point of asking not how ours can fall this much, but how it could fall this little. This is 2 days of pent up world wide crashing. Right now the main index that seems to have faired the BEST during that time is London, which has fallen about 7.5%, not 5.5% like the futures are showing. A lot of people are gonna be waking up in about 6 hours not knowing what is waiting for them.

[davelj]

No. If the market is already down 5%-ish and the financials report poor earnings – even if they’re in line with already expected crappy results – then Apple’s report, even if it’s good, will be irrelevant. It’s like the doctor telling you you’ve got brain cancer, but hey, it looks like you’ve lost 5 pounds. Not much comfort, really.

Something dramatic has to happen to change the overall appetite for risk and I don’t know what that would be. But good Apple earnings ain’t it. That much I know for sure.

Currently the futures are setting new lows. But you never know… strange things can happen at these junctures.

[davelj]

No. If the market is already down 5%-ish and the financials report poor earnings – even if they’re in line with already expected crappy results – then Apple’s report, even if it’s good, will be irrelevant. It’s like the doctor telling you you’ve got brain cancer, but hey, it looks like you’ve lost 5 pounds. Not much comfort, really.

Something dramatic has to happen to change the overall appetite for risk and I don’t know what that would be. But good Apple earnings ain’t it. That much I know for sure.

Currently the futures are setting new lows. But you never know… strange things can happen at these junctures.

[davelj]

No. If the market is already down 5%-ish and the financials report poor earnings – even if they’re in line with already expected crappy results – then Apple’s report, even if it’s good, will be irrelevant. It’s like the doctor telling you you’ve got brain cancer, but hey, it looks like you’ve lost 5 pounds. Not much comfort, really.

Something dramatic has to happen to change the overall appetite for risk and I don’t know what that would be. But good Apple earnings ain’t it. That much I know for sure.

Currently the futures are setting new lows. But you never know… strange things can happen at these junctures.

[davelj]

No. If the market is already down 5%-ish and the financials report poor earnings – even if they’re in line with already expected crappy results – then Apple’s report, even if it’s good, will be irrelevant. It’s like the doctor telling you you’ve got brain cancer, but hey, it looks like you’ve lost 5 pounds. Not much comfort, really.

Something dramatic has to happen to change the overall appetite for risk and I don’t know what that would be. But good Apple earnings ain’t it. That much I know for sure.

Currently the futures are setting new lows. But you never know… strange things can happen at these junctures.

[an]

if the Financials report badly but AAPL report better than expected, would have help raise the tech stocks?

[an]

if the Financials report badly but AAPL report better than expected, would have help raise the tech stocks?

[an]

if the Financials report badly but AAPL report better than expected, would have help raise the tech stocks?

[an]

if the Financials report badly but AAPL report better than expected, would have help raise the tech stocks?

[HereWeGo]

There’s a fair number of significant earnings reports tomorrow – BAC, WB, JNJ, and AAPL most noteworthy. Their reports will be of great impact, IMO.

[HereWeGo]

There’s a fair number of significant earnings reports tomorrow – BAC, WB, JNJ, and AAPL most noteworthy. Their reports will be of great impact, IMO.

[HereWeGo]

There’s a fair number of significant earnings reports tomorrow – BAC, WB, JNJ, and AAPL most noteworthy. Their reports will be of great impact, IMO.

[HereWeGo]

There’s a fair number of significant earnings reports tomorrow – BAC, WB, JNJ, and AAPL most noteworthy. Their reports will be of great impact, IMO.

[Aecetia]

Thank God for 2 buck Chuck.

[Aecetia]

Thank God for 2 buck Chuck.

[Aecetia]

Thank God for 2 buck Chuck.

[Aecetia]

Thank God for 2 buck Chuck.

[temeculaguy]

I’ve got a bad feeling about tomorrow, the main stream media is already putting a fork in the market calling it the end of the bull market. The only debate is how bad not good or bad. Regardless of the numbers, the emotions will drive this to a record day IMHO. I don’t even want to look at my overseas and emerging market funds.

[temeculaguy]

I’ve got a bad feeling about tomorrow, the main stream media is already putting a fork in the market calling it the end of the bull market. The only debate is how bad not good or bad. Regardless of the numbers, the emotions will drive this to a record day IMHO. I don’t even want to look at my overseas and emerging market funds.

[temeculaguy]

I’ve got a bad feeling about tomorrow, the main stream media is already putting a fork in the market calling it the end of the bull market. The only debate is how bad not good or bad. Regardless of the numbers, the emotions will drive this to a record day IMHO. I don’t even want to look at my overseas and emerging market funds.

[temeculaguy]

I’ve got a bad feeling about tomorrow, the main stream media is already putting a fork in the market calling it the end of the bull market. The only debate is how bad not good or bad. Regardless of the numbers, the emotions will drive this to a record day IMHO. I don’t even want to look at my overseas and emerging market funds.

[davelj]

Most of the earnings reports tomorrow – and most of this week – will come from banks and other financial services companies. You are one of the world’s great optimists if you expect to see better-than-expected results out of this group. I suppose stranger things have happened. But not by much.

[davelj]

Most of the earnings reports tomorrow – and most of this week – will come from banks and other financial services companies. You are one of the world’s great optimists if you expect to see better-than-expected results out of this group. I suppose stranger things have happened. But not by much.

[davelj]

Most of the earnings reports tomorrow – and most of this week – will come from banks and other financial services companies. You are one of the world’s great optimists if you expect to see better-than-expected results out of this group. I suppose stranger things have happened. But not by much.

[davelj]

Most of the earnings reports tomorrow – and most of this week – will come from banks and other financial services companies. You are one of the world’s great optimists if you expect to see better-than-expected results out of this group. I suppose stranger things have happened. But not by much.

[an]

very interesting info davelj. Thanks for the write up. We’ll just have to wait and see if there is any news or not. There’s supposed to be several earning report tomorrow too. If they all turn out better than expected, the market will fill in the gap. We’ll just have to wait and see I guess.

[an]

very interesting info davelj. Thanks for the write up. We’ll just have to wait and see if there is any news or not. There’s supposed to be several earning report tomorrow too. If they all turn out better than expected, the market will fill in the gap. We’ll just have to wait and see I guess.

[an]

very interesting info davelj. Thanks for the write up. We’ll just have to wait and see if there is any news or not. There’s supposed to be several earning report tomorrow too. If they all turn out better than expected, the market will fill in the gap. We’ll just have to wait and see I guess.

[an]

very interesting info davelj. Thanks for the write up. We’ll just have to wait and see if there is any news or not. There’s supposed to be several earning report tomorrow too. If they all turn out better than expected, the market will fill in the gap. We’ll just have to wait and see I guess.

[davelj]

Absent any new “news” – like news of a preemptive rate cut – the market will likely gap down to reflect the futures trading. Two things to remember: (1) Every hedge fund of any importance trades in the global markets, so most U.S. hedge funds are already trading the Dow futures in the foreign markets that are open right now; the current Dow futures price already reflects what the marginal U.S. stock trader thinks is going to happen tomorrow; (2) There’s arbitrage at work here. If the Dow futures are trading at “X-5” and the actual Dow Index is trading at “X” the arbs are going to sell the actual Dow Index (with the higher value) and buy the Dow index futures (with the lower value) to capture a risk-free profit. But the market participants already know traders will try to do this at the opening and the current price reflects that – there won’t be a free lunch for anyone. Therefore, absent any new news, the market will likely gap down. Where it closes, who knows?

[davelj]

Absent any new “news” – like news of a preemptive rate cut – the market will likely gap down to reflect the futures trading. Two things to remember: (1) Every hedge fund of any importance trades in the global markets, so most U.S. hedge funds are already trading the Dow futures in the foreign markets that are open right now; the current Dow futures price already reflects what the marginal U.S. stock trader thinks is going to happen tomorrow; (2) There’s arbitrage at work here. If the Dow futures are trading at “X-5” and the actual Dow Index is trading at “X” the arbs are going to sell the actual Dow Index (with the higher value) and buy the Dow index futures (with the lower value) to capture a risk-free profit. But the market participants already know traders will try to do this at the opening and the current price reflects that – there won’t be a free lunch for anyone. Therefore, absent any new news, the market will likely gap down. Where it closes, who knows?

[davelj]

Absent any new “news” – like news of a preemptive rate cut – the market will likely gap down to reflect the futures trading. Two things to remember: (1) Every hedge fund of any importance trades in the global markets, so most U.S. hedge funds are already trading the Dow futures in the foreign markets that are open right now; the current Dow futures price already reflects what the marginal U.S. stock trader thinks is going to happen tomorrow; (2) There’s arbitrage at work here. If the Dow futures are trading at “X-5” and the actual Dow Index is trading at “X” the arbs are going to sell the actual Dow Index (with the higher value) and buy the Dow index futures (with the lower value) to capture a risk-free profit. But the market participants already know traders will try to do this at the opening and the current price reflects that – there won’t be a free lunch for anyone. Therefore, absent any new news, the market will likely gap down. Where it closes, who knows?

[davelj]

Absent any new “news” – like news of a preemptive rate cut – the market will likely gap down to reflect the futures trading. Two things to remember: (1) Every hedge fund of any importance trades in the global markets, so most U.S. hedge funds are already trading the Dow futures in the foreign markets that are open right now; the current Dow futures price already reflects what the marginal U.S. stock trader thinks is going to happen tomorrow; (2) There’s arbitrage at work here. If the Dow futures are trading at “X-5” and the actual Dow Index is trading at “X” the arbs are going to sell the actual Dow Index (with the higher value) and buy the Dow index futures (with the lower value) to capture a risk-free profit. But the market participants already know traders will try to do this at the opening and the current price reflects that – there won’t be a free lunch for anyone. Therefore, absent any new news, the market will likely gap down. Where it closes, who knows?

[an]

Ah, OK. Thanks for explaining. That makes more sense now. So does that mean we’ll gap down tomorrow, or drift down? If we gap down, is there still a possibility to drift up to positive territory by day close?

[an]

Ah, OK. Thanks for explaining. That makes more sense now. So does that mean we’ll gap down tomorrow, or drift down? If we gap down, is there still a possibility to drift up to positive territory by day close?

[an]

Ah, OK. Thanks for explaining. That makes more sense now. So does that mean we’ll gap down tomorrow, or drift down? If we gap down, is there still a possibility to drift up to positive territory by day close?

[an]

Ah, OK. Thanks for explaining. That makes more sense now. So does that mean we’ll gap down tomorrow, or drift down? If we gap down, is there still a possibility to drift up to positive territory by day close?

[davelj]

asianautica,

Let me explain. The “open” value – 12,130 – was the first open for Dow futures trading AFTER futures trading closed in the US markets on Friday afternoon. So that “open” value that you’re seeing on Bloomberg was the open for Dow futures in Asia on Monday morning (or Sunday our time). (Remember, we haven’t traded Dow futures here in the U.S. since Friday, but they still trade them in the rest of the world.) The 11,601 value reflects the CURRENT trading price for Dow futures. The -505 is the expected decline in the SPOT Dow value when the market opens in the U.S. tomorrow morning. (Remember, you can’t have a SPOT index value until the index actually trades, which it will tomorrow morning.) Does that make sense?

[davelj]

asianautica,

Let me explain. The “open” value – 12,130 – was the first open for Dow futures trading AFTER futures trading closed in the US markets on Friday afternoon. So that “open” value that you’re seeing on Bloomberg was the open for Dow futures in Asia on Monday morning (or Sunday our time). (Remember, we haven’t traded Dow futures here in the U.S. since Friday, but they still trade them in the rest of the world.) The 11,601 value reflects the CURRENT trading price for Dow futures. The -505 is the expected decline in the SPOT Dow value when the market opens in the U.S. tomorrow morning. (Remember, you can’t have a SPOT index value until the index actually trades, which it will tomorrow morning.) Does that make sense?

[davelj]

asianautica,

Let me explain. The “open” value – 12,130 – was the first open for Dow futures trading AFTER futures trading closed in the US markets on Friday afternoon. So that “open” value that you’re seeing on Bloomberg was the open for Dow futures in Asia on Monday morning (or Sunday our time). (Remember, we haven’t traded Dow futures here in the U.S. since Friday, but they still trade them in the rest of the world.) The 11,601 value reflects the CURRENT trading price for Dow futures. The -505 is the expected decline in the SPOT Dow value when the market opens in the U.S. tomorrow morning. (Remember, you can’t have a SPOT index value until the index actually trades, which it will tomorrow morning.) Does that make sense?

[davelj]

asianautica,

Let me explain. The “open” value – 12,130 – was the first open for Dow futures trading AFTER futures trading closed in the US markets on Friday afternoon. So that “open” value that you’re seeing on Bloomberg was the open for Dow futures in Asia on Monday morning (or Sunday our time). (Remember, we haven’t traded Dow futures here in the U.S. since Friday, but they still trade them in the rest of the world.) The 11,601 value reflects the CURRENT trading price for Dow futures. The -505 is the expected decline in the SPOT Dow value when the market opens in the U.S. tomorrow morning. (Remember, you can’t have a SPOT index value until the index actually trades, which it will tomorrow morning.) Does that make sense?

[an]

I still don’t get it. based on the bloomberg site, it is down 505 points. But is that for tomorrow? It also say it will open @ 12,130, which is 529 points above the value # of 11,601.

And the site bubble_contagion points out, that’s the future for march 08.

Dow Industrials (E) (ZDH8) Mar 08 12130 12140 11569 11604 -502 22:49

So the future market is predicting the DOW to drop 502 points by march 08. At least that’s what I see it as. The number on CNN is pre-market #, not future #. I guess that’s a huge difference.

[an]

I still don’t get it. based on the bloomberg site, it is down 505 points. But is that for tomorrow? It also say it will open @ 12,130, which is 529 points above the value # of 11,601.

And the site bubble_contagion points out, that’s the future for march 08.

Dow Industrials (E) (ZDH8) Mar 08 12130 12140 11569 11604 -502 22:49

So the future market is predicting the DOW to drop 502 points by march 08. At least that’s what I see it as. The number on CNN is pre-market #, not future #. I guess that’s a huge difference.

[an]

I still don’t get it. based on the bloomberg site, it is down 505 points. But is that for tomorrow? It also say it will open @ 12,130, which is 529 points above the value # of 11,601.

And the site bubble_contagion points out, that’s the future for march 08.

Dow Industrials (E) (ZDH8) Mar 08 12130 12140 11569 11604 -502 22:49

So the future market is predicting the DOW to drop 502 points by march 08. At least that’s what I see it as. The number on CNN is pre-market #, not future #. I guess that’s a huge difference.

[an]

I still don’t get it. based on the bloomberg site, it is down 505 points. But is that for tomorrow? It also say it will open @ 12,130, which is 529 points above the value # of 11,601.

And the site bubble_contagion points out, that’s the future for march 08.

Dow Industrials (E) (ZDH8) Mar 08 12130 12140 11569 11604 -502 22:49

So the future market is predicting the DOW to drop 502 points by march 08. At least that’s what I see it as. The number on CNN is pre-market #, not future #. I guess that’s a huge difference.

[davelj]

asianautica and bubble_contagion,

Keep it simple. This gets updated about every 15-20 minutes.

http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/stocks/futures.html

[davelj]

asianautica and bubble_contagion,

Keep it simple. This gets updated about every 15-20 minutes.

http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/stocks/futures.html

[davelj]

asianautica and bubble_contagion,

Keep it simple. This gets updated about every 15-20 minutes.

http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/stocks/futures.html

[davelj]

asianautica and bubble_contagion,

Keep it simple. This gets updated about every 15-20 minutes.

http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/stocks/futures.html

[bubble_contagion]

I was looking at the website below but I really don’t understand how these futures work. Is future tomorrow, 1 month?

http://sites3.barchart.com/pl/vsn/default.asp?code=XVSN&section=indices

[bubble_contagion]

I was looking at the website below but I really don’t understand how these futures work. Is future tomorrow, 1 month?

http://sites3.barchart.com/pl/vsn/default.asp?code=XVSN&section=indices

[bubble_contagion]

I was looking at the website below but I really don’t understand how these futures work. Is future tomorrow, 1 month?

http://sites3.barchart.com/pl/vsn/default.asp?code=XVSN&section=indices

[bubble_contagion]

I was looking at the website below but I really don’t understand how these futures work. Is future tomorrow, 1 month?

http://sites3.barchart.com/pl/vsn/default.asp?code=XVSN&section=indices

[an]

Base on CNN, the DOW future is up 20 points. If the FED announce an emergency rate cut, that might send the US market running from short covering and bottom feeders buying in. Only time will tell, but I don’t see a -450 points DOW future. Am I looking in the wrong place?

[an]

Base on CNN, the DOW future is up 20 points. If the FED announce an emergency rate cut, that might send the US market running from short covering and bottom feeders buying in. Only time will tell, but I don’t see a -450 points DOW future. Am I looking in the wrong place?

[an]

Base on CNN, the DOW future is up 20 points. If the FED announce an emergency rate cut, that might send the US market running from short covering and bottom feeders buying in. Only time will tell, but I don’t see a -450 points DOW future. Am I looking in the wrong place?

[an]

Base on CNN, the DOW future is up 20 points. If the FED announce an emergency rate cut, that might send the US market running from short covering and bottom feeders buying in. Only time will tell, but I don’t see a -450 points DOW future. Am I looking in the wrong place?

[davelj]

The S&P futures are currently pointing to a 62 point drop around the opening, or a 4.7% decline. Now things could change before the opening. But, here’s something to keep in mind. Prior to whatever happens tomorrow, the S&P is down 9.7% so far in January, and down 6.7% in the last 6 trading sessions. These are off-the-charts outliers for any period, much less the January of an election year. So, you’ve had a bunch of quants at the big hedge funds sitting back saying, “We’ve gotta get long because what we’ve seen so far this year is EXTREMELY unlikely from a statistical standpoint, so we’re due for a HUGE bounce.” And of course it’s leveraged money. So if that bounce doesn’t materialize tomorrow, and in fact we get a wipeout, I predict continued problems for the rest of the week as the hedge funds have to unwind these poorly timed long positions to meet margin calls. Selling will beget selling.

Again, maybe Uncle Ben will show up with treats for the children. But if he doesn’t… look out below.

[davelj]

The S&P futures are currently pointing to a 62 point drop around the opening, or a 4.7% decline. Now things could change before the opening. But, here’s something to keep in mind. Prior to whatever happens tomorrow, the S&P is down 9.7% so far in January, and down 6.7% in the last 6 trading sessions. These are off-the-charts outliers for any period, much less the January of an election year. So, you’ve had a bunch of quants at the big hedge funds sitting back saying, “We’ve gotta get long because what we’ve seen so far this year is EXTREMELY unlikely from a statistical standpoint, so we’re due for a HUGE bounce.” And of course it’s leveraged money. So if that bounce doesn’t materialize tomorrow, and in fact we get a wipeout, I predict continued problems for the rest of the week as the hedge funds have to unwind these poorly timed long positions to meet margin calls. Selling will beget selling.

Again, maybe Uncle Ben will show up with treats for the children. But if he doesn’t… look out below.

[davelj]

The S&P futures are currently pointing to a 62 point drop around the opening, or a 4.7% decline. Now things could change before the opening. But, here’s something to keep in mind. Prior to whatever happens tomorrow, the S&P is down 9.7% so far in January, and down 6.7% in the last 6 trading sessions. These are off-the-charts outliers for any period, much less the January of an election year. So, you’ve had a bunch of quants at the big hedge funds sitting back saying, “We’ve gotta get long because what we’ve seen so far this year is EXTREMELY unlikely from a statistical standpoint, so we’re due for a HUGE bounce.” And of course it’s leveraged money. So if that bounce doesn’t materialize tomorrow, and in fact we get a wipeout, I predict continued problems for the rest of the week as the hedge funds have to unwind these poorly timed long positions to meet margin calls. Selling will beget selling.

Again, maybe Uncle Ben will show up with treats for the children. But if he doesn’t… look out below.

[davelj]

The S&P futures are currently pointing to a 62 point drop around the opening, or a 4.7% decline. Now things could change before the opening. But, here’s something to keep in mind. Prior to whatever happens tomorrow, the S&P is down 9.7% so far in January, and down 6.7% in the last 6 trading sessions. These are off-the-charts outliers for any period, much less the January of an election year. So, you’ve had a bunch of quants at the big hedge funds sitting back saying, “We’ve gotta get long because what we’ve seen so far this year is EXTREMELY unlikely from a statistical standpoint, so we’re due for a HUGE bounce.” And of course it’s leveraged money. So if that bounce doesn’t materialize tomorrow, and in fact we get a wipeout, I predict continued problems for the rest of the week as the hedge funds have to unwind these poorly timed long positions to meet margin calls. Selling will beget selling.

Again, maybe Uncle Ben will show up with treats for the children. But if he doesn’t… look out below.

[davelj]

The S&P futures are currently pointing to a 62 point drop around the opening, or a 4.7% decline. Now things could change before the opening. But, here’s something to keep in mind. Prior to whatever happens tomorrow, the S&P is down 9.7% so far in January, and down 6.7% in the last 6 trading sessions. These are off-the-charts outliers for any period, much less the January of an election year. So, you’ve had a bunch of quants at the big hedge funds sitting back saying, “We’ve gotta get long because what we’ve seen so far this year is EXTREMELY unlikely from a statistical standpoint, so we’re due for a HUGE bounce.” And of course it’s leveraged money. So if that bounce doesn’t materialize tomorrow, and in fact we get a wipeout, I predict continued problems for the rest of the week as the hedge funds have to unwind these poorly timed long positions to meet margin calls. Selling will beget selling.

Again, maybe Uncle Ben will show up with treats for the children. But if he doesn’t… look out below.

[PadreBrian]

It won’t be that bad. I say 2% down at 4PM EST.

[PadreBrian]

It won’t be that bad. I say 2% down at 4PM EST.

[PadreBrian]

It won’t be that bad. I say 2% down at 4PM EST.

[PadreBrian]

It won’t be that bad. I say 2% down at 4PM EST.

[HereWeGo]

I guess emerging markets aren’t such a safehaven after all.

On the commodities front, is that a little foam I see on Ol’ Yellow’s maw?

[HereWeGo]

I guess emerging markets aren’t such a safehaven after all.

On the commodities front, is that a little foam I see on Ol’ Yellow’s maw?

[HereWeGo]

I guess emerging markets aren’t such a safehaven after all.

On the commodities front, is that a little foam I see on Ol’ Yellow’s maw?

[HereWeGo]

I guess emerging markets aren’t such a safehaven after all.

On the commodities front, is that a little foam I see on Ol’ Yellow’s maw?

[GoUSC]

It is absolutely staggering what is happening in the world markets guys. Up to now I have had my share of wanting the adjustment but what we are seeing here is a global correction on an absolute unprecedented level.

I am *very* nervous.

Thank god all my cash is sitting in CD’s and savings account. At least my principal is 100% protected.

[GoUSC]

It is absolutely staggering what is happening in the world markets guys. Up to now I have had my share of wanting the adjustment but what we are seeing here is a global correction on an absolute unprecedented level.

I am *very* nervous.

Thank god all my cash is sitting in CD’s and savings account. At least my principal is 100% protected.

[GoUSC]

It is absolutely staggering what is happening in the world markets guys. Up to now I have had my share of wanting the adjustment but what we are seeing here is a global correction on an absolute unprecedented level.

I am *very* nervous.

Thank god all my cash is sitting in CD’s and savings account. At least my principal is 100% protected.

[GoUSC]

It is absolutely staggering what is happening in the world markets guys. Up to now I have had my share of wanting the adjustment but what we are seeing here is a global correction on an absolute unprecedented level.

I am *very* nervous.

Thank god all my cash is sitting in CD’s and savings account. At least my principal is 100% protected.

[kewp]

Huh, makes me wonder if the plunge-protection-team will run out of plungers….

[kewp]

Huh, makes me wonder if the plunge-protection-team will run out of plungers….

[kewp]

Huh, makes me wonder if the plunge-protection-team will run out of plungers….

[kewp]

Huh, makes me wonder if the plunge-protection-team will run out of plungers….

[HereWeGo]

The Dow does, at times, ignore the rest of the world. The opposite is almost never the case. The Dow futures are up significantly (off of a -520 base, admittedly.)

I think the Dow falls 300 tomorrow, maybe less.

If that’s the case, will investment capital flee from the submerging markets back to the NYSE/Amex/Nasdaq?

[HereWeGo]

The Dow does, at times, ignore the rest of the world. The opposite is almost never the case. The Dow futures are up significantly (off of a -520 base, admittedly.)

I think the Dow falls 300 tomorrow, maybe less.

If that’s the case, will investment capital flee from the submerging markets back to the NYSE/Amex/Nasdaq?

[HereWeGo]

The Dow does, at times, ignore the rest of the world. The opposite is almost never the case. The Dow futures are up significantly (off of a -520 base, admittedly.)

I think the Dow falls 300 tomorrow, maybe less.

If that’s the case, will investment capital flee from the submerging markets back to the NYSE/Amex/Nasdaq?

[HereWeGo]

The Dow does, at times, ignore the rest of the world. The opposite is almost never the case. The Dow futures are up significantly (off of a -520 base, admittedly.)

I think the Dow falls 300 tomorrow, maybe less.

If that’s the case, will investment capital flee from the submerging markets back to the NYSE/Amex/Nasdaq?

[Arty]

I will double that to about 1000 pts which is about 9%. Not even based on the DOW Futures, nor any facts other than currently the Asian Markets are taking another 4.5% on their Tuesday morning.

[Arty]

I will double that to about 1000 pts which is about 9%. Not even based on the DOW Futures, nor any facts other than currently the Asian Markets are taking another 4.5% on their Tuesday morning.

[Arty]

I will double that to about 1000 pts which is about 9%. Not even based on the DOW Futures, nor any facts other than currently the Asian Markets are taking another 4.5% on their Tuesday morning.

[Arty]

I will double that to about 1000 pts which is about 9%. Not even based on the DOW Futures, nor any facts other than currently the Asian Markets are taking another 4.5% on their Tuesday morning.

[Coronita]

I thought people here would be happy that the economy is in the crapper now. After all, now you can go buy that home of your dreams at 50cents on the dollar.

Oh wait, when the economy is in the crapper, it's quite possible you're in the crapper too, because very few things are disconnected in the economy.  For me, it's always harder to do well  in the downturn.  So I wonder how many folks would really be better off with an economic demise. 

[img_assist|nid=5962|title=selfportrait|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=100|height=80]

—– Sour grapes for everyone!

[Coronita]

I thought people here would be happy that the economy is in the crapper now. After all, now you can go buy that home of your dreams at 50cents on the dollar.

Oh wait, when the economy is in the crapper, it's quite possible you're in the crapper too, because very few things are disconnected in the economy.  For me, it's always harder to do well  in the downturn.  So I wonder how many folks would really be better off with an economic demise. 

[img_assist|nid=5962|title=selfportrait|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=100|height=80]

—– Sour grapes for everyone!

[Coronita]

I thought people here would be happy that the economy is in the crapper now. After all, now you can go buy that home of your dreams at 50cents on the dollar.

Oh wait, when the economy is in the crapper, it's quite possible you're in the crapper too, because very few things are disconnected in the economy.  For me, it's always harder to do well  in the downturn.  So I wonder how many folks would really be better off with an economic demise. 

[img_assist|nid=5962|title=selfportrait|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=100|height=80]

—– Sour grapes for everyone!

[Coronita]

I thought people here would be happy that the economy is in the crapper now. After all, now you can go buy that home of your dreams at 50cents on the dollar.

Oh wait, when the economy is in the crapper, it's quite possible you're in the crapper too, because very few things are disconnected in the economy.  For me, it's always harder to do well  in the downturn.  So I wonder how many folks would really be better off with an economic demise. 

[img_assist|nid=5962|title=selfportrait|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=100|height=80]

—– Sour grapes for everyone!

[Coronita]

I thought people here would be happy that the economy is in the crapper now. After all, now you can go buy that home of your dreams at 50cents on the dollar.

Oh wait, when the economy is in the crapper, it's quite possible you're in the crapper too, because very few things are disconnected in the economy.  For me, it's always harder to do well  in the downturn.  So I wonder how many folks would really be better off with an economic demise. 

[img_assist|nid=5962|title=selfportrait|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=100|height=80]

—– Sour grapes for everyone!

[stockstradr]

When I shorted the oil sector several months ago, many on here laughed. Whatever. I’m now laughing my way to the bank. I’m up 25% net on that bet.

Yesterday the forum convinced me to cancel my BUY orders for GLD (gold ETF). I was stupid to listen. Well, I can at least realize a mistake. I am BUYING GOLD my friends. When the stupid Fed cuts rates 3/4 point, you buy gold.

[Coronita]

stocks, you do seem to always make the right moves, don't you 🙂 

[img_assist|nid=5962|title=selfportrait|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=100|height=80]

—– Sour grapes for everyone!

[nostradamus]

If I recall correctly stockstrader did mention some time ago that he went short on oil, with the ETF “DUG”. Anyhow, good luck on that. I thought that with a rate cut the price of oil would go up thus so would the ETF.

[an]

Well, the DOW is now only -70 points. At this rate, it might end up in positive territory by closing bell. I guess the FED’s emergency rate cut does mean something.

[an]

Well, the DOW is now only -70 points. At this rate, it might end up in positive territory by closing bell. I guess the FED’s emergency rate cut does mean something.

[an]

Well, the DOW is now only -70 points. At this rate, it might end up in positive territory by closing bell. I guess the FED’s emergency rate cut does mean something.

[an]

Well, the DOW is now only -70 points. At this rate, it might end up in positive territory by closing bell. I guess the FED’s emergency rate cut does mean something.

[an]

Well, the DOW is now only -70 points. At this rate, it might end up in positive territory by closing bell. I guess the FED’s emergency rate cut does mean something.

[nostradamus]

If I recall correctly stockstrader did mention some time ago that he went short on oil, with the ETF “DUG”. Anyhow, good luck on that. I thought that with a rate cut the price of oil would go up thus so would the ETF.

[nostradamus]

If I recall correctly stockstrader did mention some time ago that he went short on oil, with the ETF “DUG”. Anyhow, good luck on that. I thought that with a rate cut the price of oil would go up thus so would the ETF.

[nostradamus]

If I recall correctly stockstrader did mention some time ago that he went short on oil, with the ETF “DUG”. Anyhow, good luck on that. I thought that with a rate cut the price of oil would go up thus so would the ETF.

[nostradamus]

If I recall correctly stockstrader did mention some time ago that he went short on oil, with the ETF “DUG”. Anyhow, good luck on that. I thought that with a rate cut the price of oil would go up thus so would the ETF.

[Coronita]

stocks, you do seem to always make the right moves, don't you 🙂 

[img_assist|nid=5962|title=selfportrait|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=100|height=80]

—– Sour grapes for everyone!

[Coronita]

stocks, you do seem to always make the right moves, don't you 🙂 

[img_assist|nid=5962|title=selfportrait|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=100|height=80]

—– Sour grapes for everyone!

[Coronita]

stocks, you do seem to always make the right moves, don't you 🙂 

[img_assist|nid=5962|title=selfportrait|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=100|height=80]

—– Sour grapes for everyone!

[Coronita]

stocks, you do seem to always make the right moves, don't you 🙂 

[img_assist|nid=5962|title=selfportrait|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=100|height=80]

—– Sour grapes for everyone!

[stockstradr]

When I shorted the oil sector several months ago, many on here laughed. Whatever. I’m now laughing my way to the bank. I’m up 25% net on that bet.

Yesterday the forum convinced me to cancel my BUY orders for GLD (gold ETF). I was stupid to listen. Well, I can at least realize a mistake. I am BUYING GOLD my friends. When the stupid Fed cuts rates 3/4 point, you buy gold.

[stockstradr]

When I shorted the oil sector several months ago, many on here laughed. Whatever. I’m now laughing my way to the bank. I’m up 25% net on that bet.

Yesterday the forum convinced me to cancel my BUY orders for GLD (gold ETF). I was stupid to listen. Well, I can at least realize a mistake. I am BUYING GOLD my friends. When the stupid Fed cuts rates 3/4 point, you buy gold.

[stockstradr]

When I shorted the oil sector several months ago, many on here laughed. Whatever. I’m now laughing my way to the bank. I’m up 25% net on that bet.

Yesterday the forum convinced me to cancel my BUY orders for GLD (gold ETF). I was stupid to listen. Well, I can at least realize a mistake. I am BUYING GOLD my friends. When the stupid Fed cuts rates 3/4 point, you buy gold.

[stockstradr]

When I shorted the oil sector several months ago, many on here laughed. Whatever. I’m now laughing my way to the bank. I’m up 25% net on that bet.

Yesterday the forum convinced me to cancel my BUY orders for GLD (gold ETF). I was stupid to listen. Well, I can at least realize a mistake. I am BUYING GOLD my friends. When the stupid Fed cuts rates 3/4 point, you buy gold.

[Coronita]

Cool, we're above 12000 again. Time to get out of my DUG position myself, though my rest of my portfolio looks a little pathetic.

[img_assist|nid=5962|title=selfportrait|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=100|height=80]

—– Sour grapes for everyone!

[HereWeGo]

Given the massive panic of the last couple of days, does this take the shine off of the emerging markets and the asian markets? Will more $$$ flow into the US stock market?

I should have bought BAC at 33.20. If I hadn’t turned on the TV and listened to Cramer … sigh.

For someone with a better understanding of the index futures markets:
All of the sellers of futures today and yesterday are in a bit of trouble, are they not? The down 500+ predictions are getting torched at this point.

[stockstradr]

Here’s how my morning went.

Naturally, I got up early (6AM) to watch the Grand Show on Bloomberg, starting with the ringing of the NYSE opening bell. (How would you like to be the guest who happened to get TODAY to ring that Opening Bell!)

It really is damn scary to watch the markets open down over 400 points. Wow.

Twenty minutes into trading I saw the markets immediately had strength and every instinct in my body told me to BUY the S&P500 long. But I didn’t have the guts to “walk into the fire.”

Then to see those buy trades from the market pro’s start coming in just as the market was down 400 points. Those are people with nerves of steel, just walking into that storm and start BUYING like mad even though the market was down 400 points. That really is damn impressive. That is real courage under fire.

I went with safety. I saw that gold showed strength even before the NYSE opened, just on that 3/4 point rate cut. So I moved 25% of my portfolio into gold today, only about 20 minutes after the NYSE opening bell. So far, gold continues to move up.

DID you see commodity exchanges were trading gold at $850 early this morning! I found myself thinking, “I WISH had a trading account in a metals exchange so I could buy at $850.”

One of the problems I had today is that several of my retirement accounts were FROZEN in ETRADE due to my having submitted to Fidelity the request those accounts be moved to Fidelity. Those are the last remaining accounts at ETRADE; the others have already moved to Fidelity. In one of those frozen ETRADE accounts I had that previous stupid purchase of $35,000 2X leveraged long position on the S&P500. YES, 2X leveraged and the market is moving in the opposite direction. Sucks. Talk about BAD TIMING. That was NOT a good feeling this morning knowing I was going to lose significant money on that stupid bet. As of now, I’m down $2500 on that bet overall.

I tried to sell all those short oil sector positions this morning when we were down 400 on the DOW. I was up 25% on those positions. It was time to sell. I clicked “SELL” and ETRADE replied, “Sorry, this account is FROZEN due to transfer of assets.”

Bastards
🙂

ETRADE is getting even with me for abandoning them in their darkest hour!

Hey, I found out yesterday you can order a Kg (32 oz) weight gold bar for $28,000, and have the post office deliver it to your door. I’m not sure I would trust my local mailman to safely deliver twenty-eight grand of gold!

[HereWeGo]

Agreed on the actions by the pros, but I’m still very leery of gold. The Fed cuts will probably help Au in the near term, though.

[drunkle]

what’s a good china etf? i’m thinking they’ll get a nice bounce here and want to place a bet…

[HereWeGo]

FXI is decent.

You know, in retrospect, the real trade was to buy calls on XLF in the morning, given the 75 bps cut and the high likelihood of another 50 bps cut in a week.

[drunkle]

thanks for the etf…

yeah, i woke up too late to miss the day’s bounce (for either dia or china) so now i’m going to wait to the end of the day. if the dow holds it’s bounce, i’m going to bet china goes up. if the bounce fizzles, then i’m only going to bet a small amount on china.

i’m also thinking the “stimulus package” will probably amount to a 100 bil injection into china’s market…

edit: holy handgrenades, batman, the premium is stiff… it had already doubled (feb 150 call) from 4.10 this am to currently 8.90… ish.

[robson]

looks like apple sees a recession too

[HereWeGo]

If the Appleonians are sandbagging again, they deserve to get whacked.

[davelj]

I was on a plane for most of the day so I just got a review of the action.

From my first post in this thread: “I hope you’re right [the market declines big]. I just fear candy and cake (re: “surprise” rate cut) from Uncle Ben.”

Well, just as I suspected. Uncle Ben hands out more candy because God forbid anyone should lose some money or we should have a recession. Now, both of those things are going to happen going forward anyway, but at least the kiddies can pretend for another month that they won’t.

I actually thought the “surprise” cut would come tomorrow (Wednesday), after the market tanked 5% or so today. I thought maybe, just maybe, that Ben would think, “Let the children suffer just a little bit to remind them that bad things can happen sometimes.” But no. Too much to ask.

Given the 75 bps rate cut I’m actually surprised that we didn’t close in positive territory today. After all, I believe that this is the first time in the history of the Fed that (a) rates have been cut by more than 50 bps at one time, and (b) that an intra-meeting rate cut has been greater than 50 bps. It surprises me that that didn’t get the kids more hot and bothered – today’s market close was a Bronx Cheer. In my view, it shows how serious the problems are.

Shoes that will be dropping over the next 6-12 months that are not fully priced into stocks include: (1) Problems in Credit Card Land, (2) Problems in Commercial Real Estate Land, (3) Problems in Leveraged Lending Land, and (4) Recession, with all that implies. But at least we’re moving in the right direction.

[drunkle]

boa and wach both reported abysmal earnings… those stories got drowned out by the rate cut. maybe that’s what got the markets in a tizzy? whatever, some bit of info got out, info that spooked the institutionals and insiders, big ben included. i’m not so sure that the market move instigated the cut. rather, the markets got a jump on the action. and the upswing in reaction to the cut was dominated by the outsiders and casual gamblers.

another bit of news, on mbia:

NY Insurance Dept. Working With Bond Insurers To Stabilize Market
11:33 AM ET – Dow Jones News
NEW YORK -(Dow Jones)- The New York Insurance Department said Tuesday it is closely monitoring the health of bond insurers and working closely with companies to stabilize the market.
The department has played an active role in trying to shore up the sector, which guarantees some $2.4 trillion in debt, the bulk of it issued by municipalities that would otherwise have to pay higher rates. The department previously invited Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway (BRKA BRKB) to open a new bond insurance company in New York and gave quick approval to a capital-raising plan for top bond insurer MBIA Inc. (MBI).
Without being specific, the department said more injections of capital are possible.
“The Department is currently in discussions with other parties about possible future capital investments,” the department said in a release.

{cut}

[HereWeGo]

Basically, drunkle, the banks can pay lower and lower rates to borrow depositors’ capital. The yield curve may steepen due to inflation worries, so the banks’ lending rates go up a bit, or at least don’t drop commensurate with the fall on the low end. Yay banks!

[drunkle]

oh, i understand that, higher profit margins… whether or not that offsets outstanding losses, though, is the question; can the banks bail out water faster than they’re taking it on? despite the sequentially larger bilge pump given to them by the fed since august, continued deflation in re and now bond ratings questions resulting in their 95% loss in profits, i’m not so sure…

[paramount]

Down -500, no wonder your renting…

[bubble_contagion]

Uncanny how accurate my prediction was. Dow -463 after the opening bell. Did I say it would close at that? Actually I managed to make some money on the stock market today. Did your house do that for you? Will it in the next two, three or even five years? Of course not.

[Ash Housewares]

So what’s the story with Berkshire Hathaway? Up almost 4% today. Some portion of that no doubt is a “flight to safety” response, with BRK’s sterling reputation. Is there any speculation about takeovers floating around? It certainly would fit Buffett’s pattern to strike at a time like this.

[Ash Housewares]

So what’s the story with Berkshire Hathaway? Up almost 4% today. Some portion of that no doubt is a “flight to safety” response, with BRK’s sterling reputation. Is there any speculation about takeovers floating around? It certainly would fit Buffett’s pattern to strike at a time like this.

[Ash Housewares]

So what’s the story with Berkshire Hathaway? Up almost 4% today. Some portion of that no doubt is a “flight to safety” response, with BRK’s sterling reputation. Is there any speculation about takeovers floating around? It certainly would fit Buffett’s pattern to strike at a time like this.

[Ash Housewares]

So what’s the story with Berkshire Hathaway? Up almost 4% today. Some portion of that no doubt is a “flight to safety” response, with BRK’s sterling reputation. Is there any speculation about takeovers floating around? It certainly would fit Buffett’s pattern to strike at a time like this.

[Ash Housewares]

So what’s the story with Berkshire Hathaway? Up almost 4% today. Some portion of that no doubt is a “flight to safety” response, with BRK’s sterling reputation. Is there any speculation about takeovers floating around? It certainly would fit Buffett’s pattern to strike at a time like this.

[temeculaguy]

Not all housing bears wish for stock market crashes, most of us reverse flippers moved R/E holdings into stocks or savings instruments. If inflation kills savings and rates go to nothing while stocks tank, we aren’t in that much better of a position (but still a little better). I know I am not rooting for a complete econimic meltdown or even a recession. I don’t think that just because one feels a certain asset class is overvalued that they think all classes are overvalued. I don’t believe that we need high unemployment, a stock market crash or any other calamity to get a housing correction. The housing bubble is partly to blame for the current conditions, more evidence of why our leaders should have attempted to avoid the bubble in the first place, rather than try and minimize the damage afterwards.

[temeculaguy]

Not all housing bears wish for stock market crashes, most of us reverse flippers moved R/E holdings into stocks or savings instruments. If inflation kills savings and rates go to nothing while stocks tank, we aren’t in that much better of a position (but still a little better). I know I am not rooting for a complete econimic meltdown or even a recession. I don’t think that just because one feels a certain asset class is overvalued that they think all classes are overvalued. I don’t believe that we need high unemployment, a stock market crash or any other calamity to get a housing correction. The housing bubble is partly to blame for the current conditions, more evidence of why our leaders should have attempted to avoid the bubble in the first place, rather than try and minimize the damage afterwards.

[temeculaguy]

Not all housing bears wish for stock market crashes, most of us reverse flippers moved R/E holdings into stocks or savings instruments. If inflation kills savings and rates go to nothing while stocks tank, we aren’t in that much better of a position (but still a little better). I know I am not rooting for a complete econimic meltdown or even a recession. I don’t think that just because one feels a certain asset class is overvalued that they think all classes are overvalued. I don’t believe that we need high unemployment, a stock market crash or any other calamity to get a housing correction. The housing bubble is partly to blame for the current conditions, more evidence of why our leaders should have attempted to avoid the bubble in the first place, rather than try and minimize the damage afterwards.

[temeculaguy]

Not all housing bears wish for stock market crashes, most of us reverse flippers moved R/E holdings into stocks or savings instruments. If inflation kills savings and rates go to nothing while stocks tank, we aren’t in that much better of a position (but still a little better). I know I am not rooting for a complete econimic meltdown or even a recession. I don’t think that just because one feels a certain asset class is overvalued that they think all classes are overvalued. I don’t believe that we need high unemployment, a stock market crash or any other calamity to get a housing correction. The housing bubble is partly to blame for the current conditions, more evidence of why our leaders should have attempted to avoid the bubble in the first place, rather than try and minimize the damage afterwards.

[temeculaguy]

Not all housing bears wish for stock market crashes, most of us reverse flippers moved R/E holdings into stocks or savings instruments. If inflation kills savings and rates go to nothing while stocks tank, we aren’t in that much better of a position (but still a little better). I know I am not rooting for a complete econimic meltdown or even a recession. I don’t think that just because one feels a certain asset class is overvalued that they think all classes are overvalued. I don’t believe that we need high unemployment, a stock market crash or any other calamity to get a housing correction. The housing bubble is partly to blame for the current conditions, more evidence of why our leaders should have attempted to avoid the bubble in the first place, rather than try and minimize the damage afterwards.

[PadreBrian]

Bubble, lol. I came the clossest. It didn’t take a mathematician to know it would open low.

[an]

Seems like this whole thread will die a quick death with no real gloating from the bears since not only did we close much higher than when we opened, DOW future now is +52 points and the Hang Sang is up almost 11% in one day. Which completely recovered all of yesterday’s losses and then some. That’s some crazy volatility.

[socalarm]

thank uncle ben (and socalbubble for the link)
http://www.socalbubble.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/01/heliben.jpg

🙂

[Chris Scoreboard Johnston]

If we get a 50% housing drop you ain’t seen nothin yet in stocks, the two markets are inexoribly connected right now. I am puzzled as to how anyone could think an armaggeddon scenario like a drop like that in housing could stand alone, but itleast those who thought that have the counter proof right in front of them.

I am not sure who posted the really bullish gold comments, but I am looking for a significant down move in gold that should begin with the next 2 to 3 weeks. I hope todays drop is not the beginning because my entry signal is not set up quite yet. There are very strong long term seasonal and cyclical factors hitting very soon calling for a good sized decline. The commercials also have their largest short position in history, no time to be a gold bull other than a day trade here and there.

Crude oil typically bottoms in Feb, but the commercials are heavily short so as long as that condition exits I will stay clear of longs there, but once they shift, a good upmove should start there. The seasonal is going to be late it appears there this year.

[kewp]

I am puzzled as to how anyone could think an armaggeddon scenario like a drop like that in housing could stand alone, but itleast those who thought that have the counter proof right in front of them.

I’m not disagreeing with you, but I’ll have to point out that our country did just fine when homes cost half what they did now.

Given that our economy is driven by consumer spending, wouldn’t it be beneficial if everyones mortgage payment was cut in half?

[LA_Renter]

Alright who is playing the SSO for the bounce?? Are we even going to have a bounce? Geeze!

[stockstradr]

Damn.

Even a die-hard bear like me is stunned. Wow.
On the S&P500 from 1565 down to 1278,-18%, in about three months, and the markets seem to want more blood !
Unreal.

This opinion is pure speculation, but here goes….

I think we’re going below 1100 on the S&P500, possibly to 1000. Then start buying. When oil hits $60/bbl, start buying it like its liquid gold. I think it might take 12 to 24 months for oil to fall below $60/bbl. I’m sticking with my shorts to ride oil down like a hell hound.

The only stock I like today is Nokia. I might buy a few shares, looking for a bump tomorrow. Then I’ll dump it.

I’m getting my ass kicked on the gold I bought yesterday. Yes, you can say “I told you so”

Naturally, I’m asking myself WHY on Jan 15th did I dump the 80% of my portfolio that was SHORT this market. Pure stupidity. Oh well. Better not to be greedy when so many are in a world of hurt from these markets.

Oh, one more thing. Someone asked about SSO. Let me share my pain. I went long, buying a little bit of SSO, when S&P500 had fallen to about 1310. I’m now losing so damn much money on that SSO that it is wiping out half my profits on my short oil sector positions. It seems this market grinds bulls into the ground. I should have stuck with being a Bear.

[Ozzie]

I think the gov’t has finally figured out that the biggest economic risk to the country is the housing market and in particular the bad mortgages on lenders/investors/insurers books which are causing a credit crunch being felt in all aspects of the economy. With that said you are going to see a huge gov’t bailout which is already under way. The gov’t wants everyone who stands to lose their home to re-finance so that they stay in those homes and the loans will come of the lenders books. You think the $150 billion stimulus package is the end of this? No way. I can see the gov’t offering cash out re-fi’s to subprime borrowers so that they avoid forecosure and spend th cash to stimulate the economy. Buy WMT because that’s where a ton of the money is going to be spent, and then just wait until Hillary (former WMT board member) and Bill take over the White House.

[kev374]

+300pts? Never expected that!! Even when all the economic news is miserable the optimism of the market fueled by Wall St. greed amazes me. Guess these traders are still in denial.

[LA_Renter]

“Guess these traders are still in denial”

IMO I think what we saw today is a classic bear market rally. It’s rare to see a market move to the downside like that without a break. I played the SSO today, got in at 62.50 then it went down to about 61.15 and I thought uh oh I’m screwed. I had appts this afternoon and was relieved to see that trade work when I got home. I think this rally has some legs left to it and then back down we go. I am planning to take proceeds from the SSO trade and put back into SDS and ride that thing down. We will be in a process of hitting and testing new lows for a while here. The bond insurance bailout news is big IMO but it only means that we might avoid a total systemic meltdown, and hey I’ll tell ya I’m all for avoiding a total systemic meltdown. The unwinding process is still going to be long and painful and the world markets are truly signaling a significant slow down.

[LA_Renter]

“Guess these traders are still in denial”

IMO I think what we saw today is a classic bear market rally. It’s rare to see a market move to the downside like that without a break. I played the SSO today, got in at 62.50 then it went down to about 61.15 and I thought uh oh I’m screwed. I had appts this afternoon and was relieved to see that trade work when I got home. I think this rally has some legs left to it and then back down we go. I am planning to take proceeds from the SSO trade and put back into SDS and ride that thing down. We will be in a process of hitting and testing new lows for a while here. The bond insurance bailout news is big IMO but it only means that we might avoid a total systemic meltdown, and hey I’ll tell ya I’m all for avoiding a total systemic meltdown. The unwinding process is still going to be long and painful and the world markets are truly signaling a significant slow down.

[drunkle]

watching the blood drain out of apple, goog and rim is interesting. how many “tech” cheerleaders like cramer got very badly burned today?

that china etf, fxi burned me, that’s for sure… no bounce in the am despite the 10% rise in hang seng, dumped it at a loss… end o day, that fcker is up some 6 points!

bought a little dia call, sold it early for a marginal profit, watched that fcker fly at close…

daytrading blows.

[an]

How did you know Cramer got burned? He could very well bought put in the AM, sold it mid day and bought call mid day and held through close. You only get burned if you freaked out by mid day and sell. The DOW basically swung 500 points today from bottom to top. That’s some crazy volatility for sure. I got lucky and did not panic sell like I did many times before. We’ll see what tomorrow bring. Hopefully this bounce will continue for a few more days.

[an]

How did you know Cramer got burned? He could very well bought put in the AM, sold it mid day and bought call mid day and held through close. You only get burned if you freaked out by mid day and sell. The DOW basically swung 500 points today from bottom to top. That’s some crazy volatility for sure. I got lucky and did not panic sell like I did many times before. We’ll see what tomorrow bring. Hopefully this bounce will continue for a few more days.

[an]

How did you know Cramer got burned? He could very well bought put in the AM, sold it mid day and bought call mid day and held through close. You only get burned if you freaked out by mid day and sell. The DOW basically swung 500 points today from bottom to top. That’s some crazy volatility for sure. I got lucky and did not panic sell like I did many times before. We’ll see what tomorrow bring. Hopefully this bounce will continue for a few more days.

[an]

How did you know Cramer got burned? He could very well bought put in the AM, sold it mid day and bought call mid day and held through close. You only get burned if you freaked out by mid day and sell. The DOW basically swung 500 points today from bottom to top. That’s some crazy volatility for sure. I got lucky and did not panic sell like I did many times before. We’ll see what tomorrow bring. Hopefully this bounce will continue for a few more days.

[an]

How did you know Cramer got burned? He could very well bought put in the AM, sold it mid day and bought call mid day and held through close. You only get burned if you freaked out by mid day and sell. The DOW basically swung 500 points today from bottom to top. That’s some crazy volatility for sure. I got lucky and did not panic sell like I did many times before. We’ll see what tomorrow bring. Hopefully this bounce will continue for a few more days.

[Coronita]

watching the blood drain out of apple, goog and rim is interesting. how many "tech" cheerleaders like cramer got very badly burned today?

that china etf, fxi burned me, that's for sure… no bounce in the am despite the 10% rise in hang seng, dumped it at a loss… end o day, that fcker is up some 6 points!

bought a little dia call, sold it early for a marginal profit, watched that fcker fly at close…

 

 

From the local economy…. Looks like qualcomm did fine today AH. Ebay is getting beaten up slightly. We'll have to wait for Juniper tomorrow.

 

I have to say. Folks that put money into the chinese market. You got a lot of balls. I won't touch that market, despite all the hype. State sponsored banks just doesn't ring a bell for me.

 

 

[img_assist|nid=5962|title=selfportrait|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=100|height=80]

—– Sour grapes for everyone!

[stockstradr]

Regards LA_Renter’s post…

Brilliant. Agree with everything you wrote. Very nice move buying that ProShares ETF long the market. I agree we got a little rally going, in an otherwise bear market.

I think I’m gonna stop over-thinking this market, and just read your posts for investment ideas. You should charge us.

[stockstradr]

Regards LA_Renter’s post…

Brilliant. Agree with everything you wrote. Very nice move buying that ProShares ETF long the market. I agree we got a little rally going, in an otherwise bear market.

I think I’m gonna stop over-thinking this market, and just read your posts for investment ideas. You should charge us.

[stockstradr]

Regards LA_Renter’s post…

Brilliant. Agree with everything you wrote. Very nice move buying that ProShares ETF long the market. I agree we got a little rally going, in an otherwise bear market.

I think I’m gonna stop over-thinking this market, and just read your posts for investment ideas. You should charge us.

[stockstradr]

Regards LA_Renter’s post…

Brilliant. Agree with everything you wrote. Very nice move buying that ProShares ETF long the market. I agree we got a little rally going, in an otherwise bear market.

I think I’m gonna stop over-thinking this market, and just read your posts for investment ideas. You should charge us.

[stockstradr]

Regards LA_Renter’s post…

Brilliant. Agree with everything you wrote. Very nice move buying that ProShares ETF long the market. I agree we got a little rally going, in an otherwise bear market.

I think I’m gonna stop over-thinking this market, and just read your posts for investment ideas. You should charge us.

[drunkle]

asian:

i dont know how cramer did. i was merely casting aspersions. note however, today, he called the bottom.

flu:

i wouldn’t touch china’s market either, but i had a feeling they would pop. too bad i didn’t capitalize. you’re watching your intel, i’m sure… i picked up intel calls on the way down, those are working nicely… hopefully for a few more days at that…

[drunkle]

asian:

i dont know how cramer did. i was merely casting aspersions. note however, today, he called the bottom.

flu:

i wouldn’t touch china’s market either, but i had a feeling they would pop. too bad i didn’t capitalize. you’re watching your intel, i’m sure… i picked up intel calls on the way down, those are working nicely… hopefully for a few more days at that…

[drunkle]

asian:

i dont know how cramer did. i was merely casting aspersions. note however, today, he called the bottom.

flu:

i wouldn’t touch china’s market either, but i had a feeling they would pop. too bad i didn’t capitalize. you’re watching your intel, i’m sure… i picked up intel calls on the way down, those are working nicely… hopefully for a few more days at that…

[drunkle]

asian:

i dont know how cramer did. i was merely casting aspersions. note however, today, he called the bottom.

flu:

i wouldn’t touch china’s market either, but i had a feeling they would pop. too bad i didn’t capitalize. you’re watching your intel, i’m sure… i picked up intel calls on the way down, those are working nicely… hopefully for a few more days at that…

[drunkle]

asian:

i dont know how cramer did. i was merely casting aspersions. note however, today, he called the bottom.

flu:

i wouldn’t touch china’s market either, but i had a feeling they would pop. too bad i didn’t capitalize. you’re watching your intel, i’m sure… i picked up intel calls on the way down, those are working nicely… hopefully for a few more days at that…

[Coronita]

watching the blood drain out of apple, goog and rim is interesting. how many "tech" cheerleaders like cramer got very badly burned today?

that china etf, fxi burned me, that's for sure… no bounce in the am despite the 10% rise in hang seng, dumped it at a loss… end o day, that fcker is up some 6 points!

bought a little dia call, sold it early for a marginal profit, watched that fcker fly at close…

 

 

From the local economy…. Looks like qualcomm did fine today AH. Ebay is getting beaten up slightly. We'll have to wait for Juniper tomorrow.

 

I have to say. Folks that put money into the chinese market. You got a lot of balls. I won't touch that market, despite all the hype. State sponsored banks just doesn't ring a bell for me.

 

 

[img_assist|nid=5962|title=selfportrait|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=100|height=80]

—– Sour grapes for everyone!

[Coronita]

watching the blood drain out of apple, goog and rim is interesting. how many "tech" cheerleaders like cramer got very badly burned today?

that china etf, fxi burned me, that's for sure… no bounce in the am despite the 10% rise in hang seng, dumped it at a loss… end o day, that fcker is up some 6 points!

bought a little dia call, sold it early for a marginal profit, watched that fcker fly at close…

 

 

From the local economy…. Looks like qualcomm did fine today AH. Ebay is getting beaten up slightly. We'll have to wait for Juniper tomorrow.

 

I have to say. Folks that put money into the chinese market. You got a lot of balls. I won't touch that market, despite all the hype. State sponsored banks just doesn't ring a bell for me.

 

 

[img_assist|nid=5962|title=selfportrait|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=100|height=80]

—– Sour grapes for everyone!

[Coronita]

watching the blood drain out of apple, goog and rim is interesting. how many "tech" cheerleaders like cramer got very badly burned today?

that china etf, fxi burned me, that's for sure… no bounce in the am despite the 10% rise in hang seng, dumped it at a loss… end o day, that fcker is up some 6 points!

bought a little dia call, sold it early for a marginal profit, watched that fcker fly at close…

 

 

From the local economy…. Looks like qualcomm did fine today AH. Ebay is getting beaten up slightly. We'll have to wait for Juniper tomorrow.

 

I have to say. Folks that put money into the chinese market. You got a lot of balls. I won't touch that market, despite all the hype. State sponsored banks just doesn't ring a bell for me.

 

 

[img_assist|nid=5962|title=selfportrait|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=100|height=80]

—– Sour grapes for everyone!

[Coronita]

watching the blood drain out of apple, goog and rim is interesting. how many "tech" cheerleaders like cramer got very badly burned today?

that china etf, fxi burned me, that's for sure… no bounce in the am despite the 10% rise in hang seng, dumped it at a loss… end o day, that fcker is up some 6 points!

bought a little dia call, sold it early for a marginal profit, watched that fcker fly at close…

 

 

From the local economy…. Looks like qualcomm did fine today AH. Ebay is getting beaten up slightly. We'll have to wait for Juniper tomorrow.

 

I have to say. Folks that put money into the chinese market. You got a lot of balls. I won't touch that market, despite all the hype. State sponsored banks just doesn't ring a bell for me.

 

 

[img_assist|nid=5962|title=selfportrait|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=100|height=80]

—– Sour grapes for everyone!

[drunkle]

watching the blood drain out of apple, goog and rim is interesting. how many “tech” cheerleaders like cramer got very badly burned today?

that china etf, fxi burned me, that’s for sure… no bounce in the am despite the 10% rise in hang seng, dumped it at a loss… end o day, that fcker is up some 6 points!

bought a little dia call, sold it early for a marginal profit, watched that fcker fly at close…

daytrading blows.

[drunkle]

watching the blood drain out of apple, goog and rim is interesting. how many “tech” cheerleaders like cramer got very badly burned today?

that china etf, fxi burned me, that’s for sure… no bounce in the am despite the 10% rise in hang seng, dumped it at a loss… end o day, that fcker is up some 6 points!

bought a little dia call, sold it early for a marginal profit, watched that fcker fly at close…

daytrading blows.

[drunkle]

watching the blood drain out of apple, goog and rim is interesting. how many “tech” cheerleaders like cramer got very badly burned today?

that china etf, fxi burned me, that’s for sure… no bounce in the am despite the 10% rise in hang seng, dumped it at a loss… end o day, that fcker is up some 6 points!

bought a little dia call, sold it early for a marginal profit, watched that fcker fly at close…

daytrading blows.

[drunkle]

watching the blood drain out of apple, goog and rim is interesting. how many “tech” cheerleaders like cramer got very badly burned today?

that china etf, fxi burned me, that’s for sure… no bounce in the am despite the 10% rise in hang seng, dumped it at a loss… end o day, that fcker is up some 6 points!

bought a little dia call, sold it early for a marginal profit, watched that fcker fly at close…

daytrading blows.

[LA_Renter]

“Guess these traders are still in denial”

IMO I think what we saw today is a classic bear market rally. It’s rare to see a market move to the downside like that without a break. I played the SSO today, got in at 62.50 then it went down to about 61.15 and I thought uh oh I’m screwed. I had appts this afternoon and was relieved to see that trade work when I got home. I think this rally has some legs left to it and then back down we go. I am planning to take proceeds from the SSO trade and put back into SDS and ride that thing down. We will be in a process of hitting and testing new lows for a while here. The bond insurance bailout news is big IMO but it only means that we might avoid a total systemic meltdown, and hey I’ll tell ya I’m all for avoiding a total systemic meltdown. The unwinding process is still going to be long and painful and the world markets are truly signaling a significant slow down.

[LA_Renter]

“Guess these traders are still in denial”

IMO I think what we saw today is a classic bear market rally. It’s rare to see a market move to the downside like that without a break. I played the SSO today, got in at 62.50 then it went down to about 61.15 and I thought uh oh I’m screwed. I had appts this afternoon and was relieved to see that trade work when I got home. I think this rally has some legs left to it and then back down we go. I am planning to take proceeds from the SSO trade and put back into SDS and ride that thing down. We will be in a process of hitting and testing new lows for a while here. The bond insurance bailout news is big IMO but it only means that we might avoid a total systemic meltdown, and hey I’ll tell ya I’m all for avoiding a total systemic meltdown. The unwinding process is still going to be long and painful and the world markets are truly signaling a significant slow down.

[LA_Renter]

“Guess these traders are still in denial”

IMO I think what we saw today is a classic bear market rally. It’s rare to see a market move to the downside like that without a break. I played the SSO today, got in at 62.50 then it went down to about 61.15 and I thought uh oh I’m screwed. I had appts this afternoon and was relieved to see that trade work when I got home. I think this rally has some legs left to it and then back down we go. I am planning to take proceeds from the SSO trade and put back into SDS and ride that thing down. We will be in a process of hitting and testing new lows for a while here. The bond insurance bailout news is big IMO but it only means that we might avoid a total systemic meltdown, and hey I’ll tell ya I’m all for avoiding a total systemic meltdown. The unwinding process is still going to be long and painful and the world markets are truly signaling a significant slow down.

[LA_Renter]

“Guess these traders are still in denial”

IMO I think what we saw today is a classic bear market rally. It’s rare to see a market move to the downside like that without a break. I played the SSO today, got in at 62.50 then it went down to about 61.15 and I thought uh oh I’m screwed. I had appts this afternoon and was relieved to see that trade work when I got home. I think this rally has some legs left to it and then back down we go. I am planning to take proceeds from the SSO trade and put back into SDS and ride that thing down. We will be in a process of hitting and testing new lows for a while here. The bond insurance bailout news is big IMO but it only means that we might avoid a total systemic meltdown, and hey I’ll tell ya I’m all for avoiding a total systemic meltdown. The unwinding process is still going to be long and painful and the world markets are truly signaling a significant slow down.

[LA_Renter]

“Guess these traders are still in denial”

IMO I think what we saw today is a classic bear market rally. It’s rare to see a market move to the downside like that without a break. I played the SSO today, got in at 62.50 then it went down to about 61.15 and I thought uh oh I’m screwed. I had appts this afternoon and was relieved to see that trade work when I got home. I think this rally has some legs left to it and then back down we go. I am planning to take proceeds from the SSO trade and put back into SDS and ride that thing down. We will be in a process of hitting and testing new lows for a while here. The bond insurance bailout news is big IMO but it only means that we might avoid a total systemic meltdown, and hey I’ll tell ya I’m all for avoiding a total systemic meltdown. The unwinding process is still going to be long and painful and the world markets are truly signaling a significant slow down.

[LA_Renter]

“Guess these traders are still in denial”

IMO I think what we saw today is a classic bear market rally. It’s rare to see a market move to the downside like that without a break. I played the SSO today, got in at 62.50 then it went down to about 61.15 and I thought uh oh I’m screwed. I had appts this afternoon and was relieved to see that trade work when I got home. I think this rally has some legs left to it and then back down we go. I am planning to take proceeds from the SSO trade and put back into SDS and ride that thing down. We will be in a process of hitting and testing new lows for a while here. The bond insurance bailout news is big IMO but it only means that we might avoid a total systemic meltdown, and hey I’ll tell ya I’m all for avoiding a total systemic meltdown. The unwinding process is still going to be long and painful and the world markets are truly signaling a significant slow down.

[LA_Renter]

“Guess these traders are still in denial”

IMO I think what we saw today is a classic bear market rally. It’s rare to see a market move to the downside like that without a break. I played the SSO today, got in at 62.50 then it went down to about 61.15 and I thought uh oh I’m screwed. I had appts this afternoon and was relieved to see that trade work when I got home. I think this rally has some legs left to it and then back down we go. I am planning to take proceeds from the SSO trade and put back into SDS and ride that thing down. We will be in a process of hitting and testing new lows for a while here. The bond insurance bailout news is big IMO but it only means that we might avoid a total systemic meltdown, and hey I’ll tell ya I’m all for avoiding a total systemic meltdown. The unwinding process is still going to be long and painful and the world markets are truly signaling a significant slow down.

[LA_Renter]

“Guess these traders are still in denial”

IMO I think what we saw today is a classic bear market rally. It’s rare to see a market move to the downside like that without a break. I played the SSO today, got in at 62.50 then it went down to about 61.15 and I thought uh oh I’m screwed. I had appts this afternoon and was relieved to see that trade work when I got home. I think this rally has some legs left to it and then back down we go. I am planning to take proceeds from the SSO trade and put back into SDS and ride that thing down. We will be in a process of hitting and testing new lows for a while here. The bond insurance bailout news is big IMO but it only means that we might avoid a total systemic meltdown, and hey I’ll tell ya I’m all for avoiding a total systemic meltdown. The unwinding process is still going to be long and painful and the world markets are truly signaling a significant slow down.

[kev374]

+300pts? Never expected that!! Even when all the economic news is miserable the optimism of the market fueled by Wall St. greed amazes me. Guess these traders are still in denial.

[kev374]

+300pts? Never expected that!! Even when all the economic news is miserable the optimism of the market fueled by Wall St. greed amazes me. Guess these traders are still in denial.

[kev374]

+300pts? Never expected that!! Even when all the economic news is miserable the optimism of the market fueled by Wall St. greed amazes me. Guess these traders are still in denial.

[kev374]

+300pts? Never expected that!! Even when all the economic news is miserable the optimism of the market fueled by Wall St. greed amazes me. Guess these traders are still in denial.

[Ozzie]

I think the gov’t has finally figured out that the biggest economic risk to the country is the housing market and in particular the bad mortgages on lenders/investors/insurers books which are causing a credit crunch being felt in all aspects of the economy. With that said you are going to see a huge gov’t bailout which is already under way. The gov’t wants everyone who stands to lose their home to re-finance so that they stay in those homes and the loans will come of the lenders books. You think the $150 billion stimulus package is the end of this? No way. I can see the gov’t offering cash out re-fi’s to subprime borrowers so that they avoid forecosure and spend th cash to stimulate the economy. Buy WMT because that’s where a ton of the money is going to be spent, and then just wait until Hillary (former WMT board member) and Bill take over the White House.

[Ozzie]

I think the gov’t has finally figured out that the biggest economic risk to the country is the housing market and in particular the bad mortgages on lenders/investors/insurers books which are causing a credit crunch being felt in all aspects of the economy. With that said you are going to see a huge gov’t bailout which is already under way. The gov’t wants everyone who stands to lose their home to re-finance so that they stay in those homes and the loans will come of the lenders books. You think the $150 billion stimulus package is the end of this? No way. I can see the gov’t offering cash out re-fi’s to subprime borrowers so that they avoid forecosure and spend th cash to stimulate the economy. Buy WMT because that’s where a ton of the money is going to be spent, and then just wait until Hillary (former WMT board member) and Bill take over the White House.

[Ozzie]

I think the gov’t has finally figured out that the biggest economic risk to the country is the housing market and in particular the bad mortgages on lenders/investors/insurers books which are causing a credit crunch being felt in all aspects of the economy. With that said you are going to see a huge gov’t bailout which is already under way. The gov’t wants everyone who stands to lose their home to re-finance so that they stay in those homes and the loans will come of the lenders books. You think the $150 billion stimulus package is the end of this? No way. I can see the gov’t offering cash out re-fi’s to subprime borrowers so that they avoid forecosure and spend th cash to stimulate the economy. Buy WMT because that’s where a ton of the money is going to be spent, and then just wait until Hillary (former WMT board member) and Bill take over the White House.

[Ozzie]

I think the gov’t has finally figured out that the biggest economic risk to the country is the housing market and in particular the bad mortgages on lenders/investors/insurers books which are causing a credit crunch being felt in all aspects of the economy. With that said you are going to see a huge gov’t bailout which is already under way. The gov’t wants everyone who stands to lose their home to re-finance so that they stay in those homes and the loans will come of the lenders books. You think the $150 billion stimulus package is the end of this? No way. I can see the gov’t offering cash out re-fi’s to subprime borrowers so that they avoid forecosure and spend th cash to stimulate the economy. Buy WMT because that’s where a ton of the money is going to be spent, and then just wait until Hillary (former WMT board member) and Bill take over the White House.

[stockstradr]

Damn.

Even a die-hard bear like me is stunned. Wow.
On the S&P500 from 1565 down to 1278,-18%, in about three months, and the markets seem to want more blood !
Unreal.

This opinion is pure speculation, but here goes….

I think we’re going below 1100 on the S&P500, possibly to 1000. Then start buying. When oil hits $60/bbl, start buying it like its liquid gold. I think it might take 12 to 24 months for oil to fall below $60/bbl. I’m sticking with my shorts to ride oil down like a hell hound.

The only stock I like today is Nokia. I might buy a few shares, looking for a bump tomorrow. Then I’ll dump it.

I’m getting my ass kicked on the gold I bought yesterday. Yes, you can say “I told you so”

Naturally, I’m asking myself WHY on Jan 15th did I dump the 80% of my portfolio that was SHORT this market. Pure stupidity. Oh well. Better not to be greedy when so many are in a world of hurt from these markets.

Oh, one more thing. Someone asked about SSO. Let me share my pain. I went long, buying a little bit of SSO, when S&P500 had fallen to about 1310. I’m now losing so damn much money on that SSO that it is wiping out half my profits on my short oil sector positions. It seems this market grinds bulls into the ground. I should have stuck with being a Bear.

[stockstradr]

Damn.

Even a die-hard bear like me is stunned. Wow.
On the S&P500 from 1565 down to 1278,-18%, in about three months, and the markets seem to want more blood !
Unreal.

This opinion is pure speculation, but here goes….

I think we’re going below 1100 on the S&P500, possibly to 1000. Then start buying. When oil hits $60/bbl, start buying it like its liquid gold. I think it might take 12 to 24 months for oil to fall below $60/bbl. I’m sticking with my shorts to ride oil down like a hell hound.

The only stock I like today is Nokia. I might buy a few shares, looking for a bump tomorrow. Then I’ll dump it.

I’m getting my ass kicked on the gold I bought yesterday. Yes, you can say “I told you so”

Naturally, I’m asking myself WHY on Jan 15th did I dump the 80% of my portfolio that was SHORT this market. Pure stupidity. Oh well. Better not to be greedy when so many are in a world of hurt from these markets.

Oh, one more thing. Someone asked about SSO. Let me share my pain. I went long, buying a little bit of SSO, when S&P500 had fallen to about 1310. I’m now losing so damn much money on that SSO that it is wiping out half my profits on my short oil sector positions. It seems this market grinds bulls into the ground. I should have stuck with being a Bear.

[stockstradr]

Damn.

Even a die-hard bear like me is stunned. Wow.
On the S&P500 from 1565 down to 1278,-18%, in about three months, and the markets seem to want more blood !
Unreal.

This opinion is pure speculation, but here goes….

I think we’re going below 1100 on the S&P500, possibly to 1000. Then start buying. When oil hits $60/bbl, start buying it like its liquid gold. I think it might take 12 to 24 months for oil to fall below $60/bbl. I’m sticking with my shorts to ride oil down like a hell hound.

The only stock I like today is Nokia. I might buy a few shares, looking for a bump tomorrow. Then I’ll dump it.

I’m getting my ass kicked on the gold I bought yesterday. Yes, you can say “I told you so”

Naturally, I’m asking myself WHY on Jan 15th did I dump the 80% of my portfolio that was SHORT this market. Pure stupidity. Oh well. Better not to be greedy when so many are in a world of hurt from these markets.

Oh, one more thing. Someone asked about SSO. Let me share my pain. I went long, buying a little bit of SSO, when S&P500 had fallen to about 1310. I’m now losing so damn much money on that SSO that it is wiping out half my profits on my short oil sector positions. It seems this market grinds bulls into the ground. I should have stuck with being a Bear.

[stockstradr]

Damn.

Even a die-hard bear like me is stunned. Wow.
On the S&P500 from 1565 down to 1278,-18%, in about three months, and the markets seem to want more blood !
Unreal.

This opinion is pure speculation, but here goes….

I think we’re going below 1100 on the S&P500, possibly to 1000. Then start buying. When oil hits $60/bbl, start buying it like its liquid gold. I think it might take 12 to 24 months for oil to fall below $60/bbl. I’m sticking with my shorts to ride oil down like a hell hound.

The only stock I like today is Nokia. I might buy a few shares, looking for a bump tomorrow. Then I’ll dump it.

I’m getting my ass kicked on the gold I bought yesterday. Yes, you can say “I told you so”

Naturally, I’m asking myself WHY on Jan 15th did I dump the 80% of my portfolio that was SHORT this market. Pure stupidity. Oh well. Better not to be greedy when so many are in a world of hurt from these markets.

Oh, one more thing. Someone asked about SSO. Let me share my pain. I went long, buying a little bit of SSO, when S&P500 had fallen to about 1310. I’m now losing so damn much money on that SSO that it is wiping out half my profits on my short oil sector positions. It seems this market grinds bulls into the ground. I should have stuck with being a Bear.

[LA_Renter]

Alright who is playing the SSO for the bounce?? Are we even going to have a bounce? Geeze!

[LA_Renter]

Alright who is playing the SSO for the bounce?? Are we even going to have a bounce? Geeze!

[LA_Renter]

Alright who is playing the SSO for the bounce?? Are we even going to have a bounce? Geeze!

[LA_Renter]

Alright who is playing the SSO for the bounce?? Are we even going to have a bounce? Geeze!

[kewp]

I am puzzled as to how anyone could think an armaggeddon scenario like a drop like that in housing could stand alone, but itleast those who thought that have the counter proof right in front of them.

I’m not disagreeing with you, but I’ll have to point out that our country did just fine when homes cost half what they did now.

Given that our economy is driven by consumer spending, wouldn’t it be beneficial if everyones mortgage payment was cut in half?

[kewp]

I am puzzled as to how anyone could think an armaggeddon scenario like a drop like that in housing could stand alone, but itleast those who thought that have the counter proof right in front of them.

I’m not disagreeing with you, but I’ll have to point out that our country did just fine when homes cost half what they did now.

Given that our economy is driven by consumer spending, wouldn’t it be beneficial if everyones mortgage payment was cut in half?

[kewp]

I am puzzled as to how anyone could think an armaggeddon scenario like a drop like that in housing could stand alone, but itleast those who thought that have the counter proof right in front of them.

I’m not disagreeing with you, but I’ll have to point out that our country did just fine when homes cost half what they did now.

Given that our economy is driven by consumer spending, wouldn’t it be beneficial if everyones mortgage payment was cut in half?

[kewp]

I am puzzled as to how anyone could think an armaggeddon scenario like a drop like that in housing could stand alone, but itleast those who thought that have the counter proof right in front of them.

I’m not disagreeing with you, but I’ll have to point out that our country did just fine when homes cost half what they did now.

Given that our economy is driven by consumer spending, wouldn’t it be beneficial if everyones mortgage payment was cut in half?

[Chris Scoreboard Johnston]

If we get a 50% housing drop you ain’t seen nothin yet in stocks, the two markets are inexoribly connected right now. I am puzzled as to how anyone could think an armaggeddon scenario like a drop like that in housing could stand alone, but itleast those who thought that have the counter proof right in front of them.

I am not sure who posted the really bullish gold comments, but I am looking for a significant down move in gold that should begin with the next 2 to 3 weeks. I hope todays drop is not the beginning because my entry signal is not set up quite yet. There are very strong long term seasonal and cyclical factors hitting very soon calling for a good sized decline. The commercials also have their largest short position in history, no time to be a gold bull other than a day trade here and there.

Crude oil typically bottoms in Feb, but the commercials are heavily short so as long as that condition exits I will stay clear of longs there, but once they shift, a good upmove should start there. The seasonal is going to be late it appears there this year.

[Chris Scoreboard Johnston]

If we get a 50% housing drop you ain’t seen nothin yet in stocks, the two markets are inexoribly connected right now. I am puzzled as to how anyone could think an armaggeddon scenario like a drop like that in housing could stand alone, but itleast those who thought that have the counter proof right in front of them.

I am not sure who posted the really bullish gold comments, but I am looking for a significant down move in gold that should begin with the next 2 to 3 weeks. I hope todays drop is not the beginning because my entry signal is not set up quite yet. There are very strong long term seasonal and cyclical factors hitting very soon calling for a good sized decline. The commercials also have their largest short position in history, no time to be a gold bull other than a day trade here and there.

Crude oil typically bottoms in Feb, but the commercials are heavily short so as long as that condition exits I will stay clear of longs there, but once they shift, a good upmove should start there. The seasonal is going to be late it appears there this year.

[Chris Scoreboard Johnston]

If we get a 50% housing drop you ain’t seen nothin yet in stocks, the two markets are inexoribly connected right now. I am puzzled as to how anyone could think an armaggeddon scenario like a drop like that in housing could stand alone, but itleast those who thought that have the counter proof right in front of them.

I am not sure who posted the really bullish gold comments, but I am looking for a significant down move in gold that should begin with the next 2 to 3 weeks. I hope todays drop is not the beginning because my entry signal is not set up quite yet. There are very strong long term seasonal and cyclical factors hitting very soon calling for a good sized decline. The commercials also have their largest short position in history, no time to be a gold bull other than a day trade here and there.

Crude oil typically bottoms in Feb, but the commercials are heavily short so as long as that condition exits I will stay clear of longs there, but once they shift, a good upmove should start there. The seasonal is going to be late it appears there this year.

[Chris Scoreboard Johnston]

If we get a 50% housing drop you ain’t seen nothin yet in stocks, the two markets are inexoribly connected right now. I am puzzled as to how anyone could think an armaggeddon scenario like a drop like that in housing could stand alone, but itleast those who thought that have the counter proof right in front of them.

I am not sure who posted the really bullish gold comments, but I am looking for a significant down move in gold that should begin with the next 2 to 3 weeks. I hope todays drop is not the beginning because my entry signal is not set up quite yet. There are very strong long term seasonal and cyclical factors hitting very soon calling for a good sized decline. The commercials also have their largest short position in history, no time to be a gold bull other than a day trade here and there.

Crude oil typically bottoms in Feb, but the commercials are heavily short so as long as that condition exits I will stay clear of longs there, but once they shift, a good upmove should start there. The seasonal is going to be late it appears there this year.

[socalarm]

thank uncle ben (and socalbubble for the link)
http://www.socalbubble.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/01/heliben.jpg

🙂

[socalarm]

thank uncle ben (and socalbubble for the link)
http://www.socalbubble.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/01/heliben.jpg

🙂

[socalarm]

thank uncle ben (and socalbubble for the link)
http://www.socalbubble.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/01/heliben.jpg

🙂

[socalarm]

thank uncle ben (and socalbubble for the link)
http://www.socalbubble.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/01/heliben.jpg

🙂

[an]

Seems like this whole thread will die a quick death with no real gloating from the bears since not only did we close much higher than when we opened, DOW future now is +52 points and the Hang Sang is up almost 11% in one day. Which completely recovered all of yesterday’s losses and then some. That’s some crazy volatility.

[an]

Seems like this whole thread will die a quick death with no real gloating from the bears since not only did we close much higher than when we opened, DOW future now is +52 points and the Hang Sang is up almost 11% in one day. Which completely recovered all of yesterday’s losses and then some. That’s some crazy volatility.

[an]

Seems like this whole thread will die a quick death with no real gloating from the bears since not only did we close much higher than when we opened, DOW future now is +52 points and the Hang Sang is up almost 11% in one day. Which completely recovered all of yesterday’s losses and then some. That’s some crazy volatility.

[an]

Seems like this whole thread will die a quick death with no real gloating from the bears since not only did we close much higher than when we opened, DOW future now is +52 points and the Hang Sang is up almost 11% in one day. Which completely recovered all of yesterday’s losses and then some. That’s some crazy volatility.

[PadreBrian]

Bubble, lol. I came the clossest. It didn’t take a mathematician to know it would open low.

[PadreBrian]

Bubble, lol. I came the clossest. It didn’t take a mathematician to know it would open low.

[PadreBrian]

Bubble, lol. I came the clossest. It didn’t take a mathematician to know it would open low.

[PadreBrian]

Bubble, lol. I came the clossest. It didn’t take a mathematician to know it would open low.

[bubble_contagion]

Uncanny how accurate my prediction was. Dow -463 after the opening bell. Did I say it would close at that? Actually I managed to make some money on the stock market today. Did your house do that for you? Will it in the next two, three or even five years? Of course not.

[bubble_contagion]

Uncanny how accurate my prediction was. Dow -463 after the opening bell. Did I say it would close at that? Actually I managed to make some money on the stock market today. Did your house do that for you? Will it in the next two, three or even five years? Of course not.

[bubble_contagion]

Uncanny how accurate my prediction was. Dow -463 after the opening bell. Did I say it would close at that? Actually I managed to make some money on the stock market today. Did your house do that for you? Will it in the next two, three or even five years? Of course not.

[bubble_contagion]

Uncanny how accurate my prediction was. Dow -463 after the opening bell. Did I say it would close at that? Actually I managed to make some money on the stock market today. Did your house do that for you? Will it in the next two, three or even five years? Of course not.

[paramount]

Down -500, no wonder your renting…

[paramount]

Down -500, no wonder your renting…

[paramount]

Down -500, no wonder your renting…

[paramount]

Down -500, no wonder your renting…

[drunkle]

oh, i understand that, higher profit margins… whether or not that offsets outstanding losses, though, is the question; can the banks bail out water faster than they’re taking it on? despite the sequentially larger bilge pump given to them by the fed since august, continued deflation in re and now bond ratings questions resulting in their 95% loss in profits, i’m not so sure…

[drunkle]

oh, i understand that, higher profit margins… whether or not that offsets outstanding losses, though, is the question; can the banks bail out water faster than they’re taking it on? despite the sequentially larger bilge pump given to them by the fed since august, continued deflation in re and now bond ratings questions resulting in their 95% loss in profits, i’m not so sure…

[drunkle]

oh, i understand that, higher profit margins… whether or not that offsets outstanding losses, though, is the question; can the banks bail out water faster than they’re taking it on? despite the sequentially larger bilge pump given to them by the fed since august, continued deflation in re and now bond ratings questions resulting in their 95% loss in profits, i’m not so sure…

[drunkle]

oh, i understand that, higher profit margins… whether or not that offsets outstanding losses, though, is the question; can the banks bail out water faster than they’re taking it on? despite the sequentially larger bilge pump given to them by the fed since august, continued deflation in re and now bond ratings questions resulting in their 95% loss in profits, i’m not so sure…

[HereWeGo]

Basically, drunkle, the banks can pay lower and lower rates to borrow depositors’ capital. The yield curve may steepen due to inflation worries, so the banks’ lending rates go up a bit, or at least don’t drop commensurate with the fall on the low end. Yay banks!

[HereWeGo]

Basically, drunkle, the banks can pay lower and lower rates to borrow depositors’ capital. The yield curve may steepen due to inflation worries, so the banks’ lending rates go up a bit, or at least don’t drop commensurate with the fall on the low end. Yay banks!

[HereWeGo]

Basically, drunkle, the banks can pay lower and lower rates to borrow depositors’ capital. The yield curve may steepen due to inflation worries, so the banks’ lending rates go up a bit, or at least don’t drop commensurate with the fall on the low end. Yay banks!

[HereWeGo]

Basically, drunkle, the banks can pay lower and lower rates to borrow depositors’ capital. The yield curve may steepen due to inflation worries, so the banks’ lending rates go up a bit, or at least don’t drop commensurate with the fall on the low end. Yay banks!

[drunkle]

boa and wach both reported abysmal earnings… those stories got drowned out by the rate cut. maybe that’s what got the markets in a tizzy? whatever, some bit of info got out, info that spooked the institutionals and insiders, big ben included. i’m not so sure that the market move instigated the cut. rather, the markets got a jump on the action. and the upswing in reaction to the cut was dominated by the outsiders and casual gamblers.

another bit of news, on mbia:

NY Insurance Dept. Working With Bond Insurers To Stabilize Market
11:33 AM ET – Dow Jones News
NEW YORK -(Dow Jones)- The New York Insurance Department said Tuesday it is closely monitoring the health of bond insurers and working closely with companies to stabilize the market.
The department has played an active role in trying to shore up the sector, which guarantees some $2.4 trillion in debt, the bulk of it issued by municipalities that would otherwise have to pay higher rates. The department previously invited Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway (BRKA BRKB) to open a new bond insurance company in New York and gave quick approval to a capital-raising plan for top bond insurer MBIA Inc. (MBI).
Without being specific, the department said more injections of capital are possible.
“The Department is currently in discussions with other parties about possible future capital investments,” the department said in a release.

{cut}

[drunkle]

boa and wach both reported abysmal earnings… those stories got drowned out by the rate cut. maybe that’s what got the markets in a tizzy? whatever, some bit of info got out, info that spooked the institutionals and insiders, big ben included. i’m not so sure that the market move instigated the cut. rather, the markets got a jump on the action. and the upswing in reaction to the cut was dominated by the outsiders and casual gamblers.

another bit of news, on mbia:

NY Insurance Dept. Working With Bond Insurers To Stabilize Market
11:33 AM ET – Dow Jones News
NEW YORK -(Dow Jones)- The New York Insurance Department said Tuesday it is closely monitoring the health of bond insurers and working closely with companies to stabilize the market.
The department has played an active role in trying to shore up the sector, which guarantees some $2.4 trillion in debt, the bulk of it issued by municipalities that would otherwise have to pay higher rates. The department previously invited Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway (BRKA BRKB) to open a new bond insurance company in New York and gave quick approval to a capital-raising plan for top bond insurer MBIA Inc. (MBI).
Without being specific, the department said more injections of capital are possible.
“The Department is currently in discussions with other parties about possible future capital investments,” the department said in a release.

{cut}

[drunkle]

boa and wach both reported abysmal earnings… those stories got drowned out by the rate cut. maybe that’s what got the markets in a tizzy? whatever, some bit of info got out, info that spooked the institutionals and insiders, big ben included. i’m not so sure that the market move instigated the cut. rather, the markets got a jump on the action. and the upswing in reaction to the cut was dominated by the outsiders and casual gamblers.

another bit of news, on mbia:

NY Insurance Dept. Working With Bond Insurers To Stabilize Market
11:33 AM ET – Dow Jones News
NEW YORK -(Dow Jones)- The New York Insurance Department said Tuesday it is closely monitoring the health of bond insurers and working closely with companies to stabilize the market.
The department has played an active role in trying to shore up the sector, which guarantees some $2.4 trillion in debt, the bulk of it issued by municipalities that would otherwise have to pay higher rates. The department previously invited Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway (BRKA BRKB) to open a new bond insurance company in New York and gave quick approval to a capital-raising plan for top bond insurer MBIA Inc. (MBI).
Without being specific, the department said more injections of capital are possible.
“The Department is currently in discussions with other parties about possible future capital investments,” the department said in a release.

{cut}

[drunkle]

boa and wach both reported abysmal earnings… those stories got drowned out by the rate cut. maybe that’s what got the markets in a tizzy? whatever, some bit of info got out, info that spooked the institutionals and insiders, big ben included. i’m not so sure that the market move instigated the cut. rather, the markets got a jump on the action. and the upswing in reaction to the cut was dominated by the outsiders and casual gamblers.

another bit of news, on mbia:

NY Insurance Dept. Working With Bond Insurers To Stabilize Market
11:33 AM ET – Dow Jones News
NEW YORK -(Dow Jones)- The New York Insurance Department said Tuesday it is closely monitoring the health of bond insurers and working closely with companies to stabilize the market.
The department has played an active role in trying to shore up the sector, which guarantees some $2.4 trillion in debt, the bulk of it issued by municipalities that would otherwise have to pay higher rates. The department previously invited Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway (BRKA BRKB) to open a new bond insurance company in New York and gave quick approval to a capital-raising plan for top bond insurer MBIA Inc. (MBI).
Without being specific, the department said more injections of capital are possible.
“The Department is currently in discussions with other parties about possible future capital investments,” the department said in a release.

{cut}

[davelj]

I was on a plane for most of the day so I just got a review of the action.

From my first post in this thread: “I hope you’re right [the market declines big]. I just fear candy and cake (re: “surprise” rate cut) from Uncle Ben.”

Well, just as I suspected. Uncle Ben hands out more candy because God forbid anyone should lose some money or we should have a recession. Now, both of those things are going to happen going forward anyway, but at least the kiddies can pretend for another month that they won’t.

I actually thought the “surprise” cut would come tomorrow (Wednesday), after the market tanked 5% or so today. I thought maybe, just maybe, that Ben would think, “Let the children suffer just a little bit to remind them that bad things can happen sometimes.” But no. Too much to ask.

Given the 75 bps rate cut I’m actually surprised that we didn’t close in positive territory today. After all, I believe that this is the first time in the history of the Fed that (a) rates have been cut by more than 50 bps at one time, and (b) that an intra-meeting rate cut has been greater than 50 bps. It surprises me that that didn’t get the kids more hot and bothered – today’s market close was a Bronx Cheer. In my view, it shows how serious the problems are.

Shoes that will be dropping over the next 6-12 months that are not fully priced into stocks include: (1) Problems in Credit Card Land, (2) Problems in Commercial Real Estate Land, (3) Problems in Leveraged Lending Land, and (4) Recession, with all that implies. But at least we’re moving in the right direction.

[davelj]

I was on a plane for most of the day so I just got a review of the action.

From my first post in this thread: “I hope you’re right [the market declines big]. I just fear candy and cake (re: “surprise” rate cut) from Uncle Ben.”

Well, just as I suspected. Uncle Ben hands out more candy because God forbid anyone should lose some money or we should have a recession. Now, both of those things are going to happen going forward anyway, but at least the kiddies can pretend for another month that they won’t.

I actually thought the “surprise” cut would come tomorrow (Wednesday), after the market tanked 5% or so today. I thought maybe, just maybe, that Ben would think, “Let the children suffer just a little bit to remind them that bad things can happen sometimes.” But no. Too much to ask.

Given the 75 bps rate cut I’m actually surprised that we didn’t close in positive territory today. After all, I believe that this is the first time in the history of the Fed that (a) rates have been cut by more than 50 bps at one time, and (b) that an intra-meeting rate cut has been greater than 50 bps. It surprises me that that didn’t get the kids more hot and bothered – today’s market close was a Bronx Cheer. In my view, it shows how serious the problems are.

Shoes that will be dropping over the next 6-12 months that are not fully priced into stocks include: (1) Problems in Credit Card Land, (2) Problems in Commercial Real Estate Land, (3) Problems in Leveraged Lending Land, and (4) Recession, with all that implies. But at least we’re moving in the right direction.

[davelj]

I was on a plane for most of the day so I just got a review of the action.

From my first post in this thread: “I hope you’re right [the market declines big]. I just fear candy and cake (re: “surprise” rate cut) from Uncle Ben.”

Well, just as I suspected. Uncle Ben hands out more candy because God forbid anyone should lose some money or we should have a recession. Now, both of those things are going to happen going forward anyway, but at least the kiddies can pretend for another month that they won’t.

I actually thought the “surprise” cut would come tomorrow (Wednesday), after the market tanked 5% or so today. I thought maybe, just maybe, that Ben would think, “Let the children suffer just a little bit to remind them that bad things can happen sometimes.” But no. Too much to ask.

Given the 75 bps rate cut I’m actually surprised that we didn’t close in positive territory today. After all, I believe that this is the first time in the history of the Fed that (a) rates have been cut by more than 50 bps at one time, and (b) that an intra-meeting rate cut has been greater than 50 bps. It surprises me that that didn’t get the kids more hot and bothered – today’s market close was a Bronx Cheer. In my view, it shows how serious the problems are.

Shoes that will be dropping over the next 6-12 months that are not fully priced into stocks include: (1) Problems in Credit Card Land, (2) Problems in Commercial Real Estate Land, (3) Problems in Leveraged Lending Land, and (4) Recession, with all that implies. But at least we’re moving in the right direction.

[davelj]

I was on a plane for most of the day so I just got a review of the action.

From my first post in this thread: “I hope you’re right [the market declines big]. I just fear candy and cake (re: “surprise” rate cut) from Uncle Ben.”

Well, just as I suspected. Uncle Ben hands out more candy because God forbid anyone should lose some money or we should have a recession. Now, both of those things are going to happen going forward anyway, but at least the kiddies can pretend for another month that they won’t.

I actually thought the “surprise” cut would come tomorrow (Wednesday), after the market tanked 5% or so today. I thought maybe, just maybe, that Ben would think, “Let the children suffer just a little bit to remind them that bad things can happen sometimes.” But no. Too much to ask.

Given the 75 bps rate cut I’m actually surprised that we didn’t close in positive territory today. After all, I believe that this is the first time in the history of the Fed that (a) rates have been cut by more than 50 bps at one time, and (b) that an intra-meeting rate cut has been greater than 50 bps. It surprises me that that didn’t get the kids more hot and bothered – today’s market close was a Bronx Cheer. In my view, it shows how serious the problems are.

Shoes that will be dropping over the next 6-12 months that are not fully priced into stocks include: (1) Problems in Credit Card Land, (2) Problems in Commercial Real Estate Land, (3) Problems in Leveraged Lending Land, and (4) Recession, with all that implies. But at least we’re moving in the right direction.

[HereWeGo]

If the Appleonians are sandbagging again, they deserve to get whacked.

[HereWeGo]

If the Appleonians are sandbagging again, they deserve to get whacked.

[HereWeGo]

If the Appleonians are sandbagging again, they deserve to get whacked.

[HereWeGo]

If the Appleonians are sandbagging again, they deserve to get whacked.

[robson]

looks like apple sees a recession too

[robson]

looks like apple sees a recession too

[robson]

looks like apple sees a recession too

[robson]

looks like apple sees a recession too

[drunkle]

thanks for the etf…

yeah, i woke up too late to miss the day’s bounce (for either dia or china) so now i’m going to wait to the end of the day. if the dow holds it’s bounce, i’m going to bet china goes up. if the bounce fizzles, then i’m only going to bet a small amount on china.

i’m also thinking the “stimulus package” will probably amount to a 100 bil injection into china’s market…

edit: holy handgrenades, batman, the premium is stiff… it had already doubled (feb 150 call) from 4.10 this am to currently 8.90… ish.

[drunkle]

thanks for the etf…

yeah, i woke up too late to miss the day’s bounce (for either dia or china) so now i’m going to wait to the end of the day. if the dow holds it’s bounce, i’m going to bet china goes up. if the bounce fizzles, then i’m only going to bet a small amount on china.

i’m also thinking the “stimulus package” will probably amount to a 100 bil injection into china’s market…

edit: holy handgrenades, batman, the premium is stiff… it had already doubled (feb 150 call) from 4.10 this am to currently 8.90… ish.

[drunkle]

thanks for the etf…

yeah, i woke up too late to miss the day’s bounce (for either dia or china) so now i’m going to wait to the end of the day. if the dow holds it’s bounce, i’m going to bet china goes up. if the bounce fizzles, then i’m only going to bet a small amount on china.

i’m also thinking the “stimulus package” will probably amount to a 100 bil injection into china’s market…

edit: holy handgrenades, batman, the premium is stiff… it had already doubled (feb 150 call) from 4.10 this am to currently 8.90… ish.

[drunkle]

thanks for the etf…

yeah, i woke up too late to miss the day’s bounce (for either dia or china) so now i’m going to wait to the end of the day. if the dow holds it’s bounce, i’m going to bet china goes up. if the bounce fizzles, then i’m only going to bet a small amount on china.

i’m also thinking the “stimulus package” will probably amount to a 100 bil injection into china’s market…

edit: holy handgrenades, batman, the premium is stiff… it had already doubled (feb 150 call) from 4.10 this am to currently 8.90… ish.

[HereWeGo]

FXI is decent.

You know, in retrospect, the real trade was to buy calls on XLF in the morning, given the 75 bps cut and the high likelihood of another 50 bps cut in a week.

[HereWeGo]

FXI is decent.

You know, in retrospect, the real trade was to buy calls on XLF in the morning, given the 75 bps cut and the high likelihood of another 50 bps cut in a week.

[HereWeGo]

FXI is decent.

You know, in retrospect, the real trade was to buy calls on XLF in the morning, given the 75 bps cut and the high likelihood of another 50 bps cut in a week.

[HereWeGo]

FXI is decent.

You know, in retrospect, the real trade was to buy calls on XLF in the morning, given the 75 bps cut and the high likelihood of another 50 bps cut in a week.

[drunkle]

what’s a good china etf? i’m thinking they’ll get a nice bounce here and want to place a bet…

[drunkle]

what’s a good china etf? i’m thinking they’ll get a nice bounce here and want to place a bet…

[drunkle]

what’s a good china etf? i’m thinking they’ll get a nice bounce here and want to place a bet…

[drunkle]

what’s a good china etf? i’m thinking they’ll get a nice bounce here and want to place a bet…

[HereWeGo]

Agreed on the actions by the pros, but I’m still very leery of gold. The Fed cuts will probably help Au in the near term, though.

[HereWeGo]

Agreed on the actions by the pros, but I’m still very leery of gold. The Fed cuts will probably help Au in the near term, though.

[HereWeGo]

Agreed on the actions by the pros, but I’m still very leery of gold. The Fed cuts will probably help Au in the near term, though.

[HereWeGo]

Agreed on the actions by the pros, but I’m still very leery of gold. The Fed cuts will probably help Au in the near term, though.

[stockstradr]

Here’s how my morning went.

Naturally, I got up early (6AM) to watch the Grand Show on Bloomberg, starting with the ringing of the NYSE opening bell. (How would you like to be the guest who happened to get TODAY to ring that Opening Bell!)

It really is damn scary to watch the markets open down over 400 points. Wow.

Twenty minutes into trading I saw the markets immediately had strength and every instinct in my body told me to BUY the S&P500 long. But I didn’t have the guts to “walk into the fire.”

Then to see those buy trades from the market pro’s start coming in just as the market was down 400 points. Those are people with nerves of steel, just walking into that storm and start BUYING like mad even though the market was down 400 points. That really is damn impressive. That is real courage under fire.

I went with safety. I saw that gold showed strength even before the NYSE opened, just on that 3/4 point rate cut. So I moved 25% of my portfolio into gold today, only about 20 minutes after the NYSE opening bell. So far, gold continues to move up.

DID you see commodity exchanges were trading gold at $850 early this morning! I found myself thinking, “I WISH had a trading account in a metals exchange so I could buy at $850.”

One of the problems I had today is that several of my retirement accounts were FROZEN in ETRADE due to my having submitted to Fidelity the request those accounts be moved to Fidelity. Those are the last remaining accounts at ETRADE; the others have already moved to Fidelity. In one of those frozen ETRADE accounts I had that previous stupid purchase of $35,000 2X leveraged long position on the S&P500. YES, 2X leveraged and the market is moving in the opposite direction. Sucks. Talk about BAD TIMING. That was NOT a good feeling this morning knowing I was going to lose significant money on that stupid bet. As of now, I’m down $2500 on that bet overall.

I tried to sell all those short oil sector positions this morning when we were down 400 on the DOW. I was up 25% on those positions. It was time to sell. I clicked “SELL” and ETRADE replied, “Sorry, this account is FROZEN due to transfer of assets.”

Bastards
🙂

ETRADE is getting even with me for abandoning them in their darkest hour!

Hey, I found out yesterday you can order a Kg (32 oz) weight gold bar for $28,000, and have the post office deliver it to your door. I’m not sure I would trust my local mailman to safely deliver twenty-eight grand of gold!

[stockstradr]

Here’s how my morning went.

Naturally, I got up early (6AM) to watch the Grand Show on Bloomberg, starting with the ringing of the NYSE opening bell. (How would you like to be the guest who happened to get TODAY to ring that Opening Bell!)

It really is damn scary to watch the markets open down over 400 points. Wow.

Twenty minutes into trading I saw the markets immediately had strength and every instinct in my body told me to BUY the S&P500 long. But I didn’t have the guts to “walk into the fire.”

Then to see those buy trades from the market pro’s start coming in just as the market was down 400 points. Those are people with nerves of steel, just walking into that storm and start BUYING like mad even though the market was down 400 points. That really is damn impressive. That is real courage under fire.

I went with safety. I saw that gold showed strength even before the NYSE opened, just on that 3/4 point rate cut. So I moved 25% of my portfolio into gold today, only about 20 minutes after the NYSE opening bell. So far, gold continues to move up.

DID you see commodity exchanges were trading gold at $850 early this morning! I found myself thinking, “I WISH had a trading account in a metals exchange so I could buy at $850.”

One of the problems I had today is that several of my retirement accounts were FROZEN in ETRADE due to my having submitted to Fidelity the request those accounts be moved to Fidelity. Those are the last remaining accounts at ETRADE; the others have already moved to Fidelity. In one of those frozen ETRADE accounts I had that previous stupid purchase of $35,000 2X leveraged long position on the S&P500. YES, 2X leveraged and the market is moving in the opposite direction. Sucks. Talk about BAD TIMING. That was NOT a good feeling this morning knowing I was going to lose significant money on that stupid bet. As of now, I’m down $2500 on that bet overall.

I tried to sell all those short oil sector positions this morning when we were down 400 on the DOW. I was up 25% on those positions. It was time to sell. I clicked “SELL” and ETRADE replied, “Sorry, this account is FROZEN due to transfer of assets.”

Bastards
🙂

ETRADE is getting even with me for abandoning them in their darkest hour!

Hey, I found out yesterday you can order a Kg (32 oz) weight gold bar for $28,000, and have the post office deliver it to your door. I’m not sure I would trust my local mailman to safely deliver twenty-eight grand of gold!

[stockstradr]

Here’s how my morning went.

Naturally, I got up early (6AM) to watch the Grand Show on Bloomberg, starting with the ringing of the NYSE opening bell. (How would you like to be the guest who happened to get TODAY to ring that Opening Bell!)

It really is damn scary to watch the markets open down over 400 points. Wow.

Twenty minutes into trading I saw the markets immediately had strength and every instinct in my body told me to BUY the S&P500 long. But I didn’t have the guts to “walk into the fire.”

Then to see those buy trades from the market pro’s start coming in just as the market was down 400 points. Those are people with nerves of steel, just walking into that storm and start BUYING like mad even though the market was down 400 points. That really is damn impressive. That is real courage under fire.

I went with safety. I saw that gold showed strength even before the NYSE opened, just on that 3/4 point rate cut. So I moved 25% of my portfolio into gold today, only about 20 minutes after the NYSE opening bell. So far, gold continues to move up.

DID you see commodity exchanges were trading gold at $850 early this morning! I found myself thinking, “I WISH had a trading account in a metals exchange so I could buy at $850.”

One of the problems I had today is that several of my retirement accounts were FROZEN in ETRADE due to my having submitted to Fidelity the request those accounts be moved to Fidelity. Those are the last remaining accounts at ETRADE; the others have already moved to Fidelity. In one of those frozen ETRADE accounts I had that previous stupid purchase of $35,000 2X leveraged long position on the S&P500. YES, 2X leveraged and the market is moving in the opposite direction. Sucks. Talk about BAD TIMING. That was NOT a good feeling this morning knowing I was going to lose significant money on that stupid bet. As of now, I’m down $2500 on that bet overall.

I tried to sell all those short oil sector positions this morning when we were down 400 on the DOW. I was up 25% on those positions. It was time to sell. I clicked “SELL” and ETRADE replied, “Sorry, this account is FROZEN due to transfer of assets.”

Bastards
🙂

ETRADE is getting even with me for abandoning them in their darkest hour!

Hey, I found out yesterday you can order a Kg (32 oz) weight gold bar for $28,000, and have the post office deliver it to your door. I’m not sure I would trust my local mailman to safely deliver twenty-eight grand of gold!

[stockstradr]

Here’s how my morning went.

Naturally, I got up early (6AM) to watch the Grand Show on Bloomberg, starting with the ringing of the NYSE opening bell. (How would you like to be the guest who happened to get TODAY to ring that Opening Bell!)

It really is damn scary to watch the markets open down over 400 points. Wow.

Twenty minutes into trading I saw the markets immediately had strength and every instinct in my body told me to BUY the S&P500 long. But I didn’t have the guts to “walk into the fire.”

Then to see those buy trades from the market pro’s start coming in just as the market was down 400 points. Those are people with nerves of steel, just walking into that storm and start BUYING like mad even though the market was down 400 points. That really is damn impressive. That is real courage under fire.

I went with safety. I saw that gold showed strength even before the NYSE opened, just on that 3/4 point rate cut. So I moved 25% of my portfolio into gold today, only about 20 minutes after the NYSE opening bell. So far, gold continues to move up.

DID you see commodity exchanges were trading gold at $850 early this morning! I found myself thinking, “I WISH had a trading account in a metals exchange so I could buy at $850.”

One of the problems I had today is that several of my retirement accounts were FROZEN in ETRADE due to my having submitted to Fidelity the request those accounts be moved to Fidelity. Those are the last remaining accounts at ETRADE; the others have already moved to Fidelity. In one of those frozen ETRADE accounts I had that previous stupid purchase of $35,000 2X leveraged long position on the S&P500. YES, 2X leveraged and the market is moving in the opposite direction. Sucks. Talk about BAD TIMING. That was NOT a good feeling this morning knowing I was going to lose significant money on that stupid bet. As of now, I’m down $2500 on that bet overall.

I tried to sell all those short oil sector positions this morning when we were down 400 on the DOW. I was up 25% on those positions. It was time to sell. I clicked “SELL” and ETRADE replied, “Sorry, this account is FROZEN due to transfer of assets.”

Bastards
🙂

ETRADE is getting even with me for abandoning them in their darkest hour!

Hey, I found out yesterday you can order a Kg (32 oz) weight gold bar for $28,000, and have the post office deliver it to your door. I’m not sure I would trust my local mailman to safely deliver twenty-eight grand of gold!

[HereWeGo]

Given the massive panic of the last couple of days, does this take the shine off of the emerging markets and the asian markets? Will more $$$ flow into the US stock market?

I should have bought BAC at 33.20. If I hadn’t turned on the TV and listened to Cramer … sigh.

For someone with a better understanding of the index futures markets:
All of the sellers of futures today and yesterday are in a bit of trouble, are they not? The down 500+ predictions are getting torched at this point.

[HereWeGo]

Given the massive panic of the last couple of days, does this take the shine off of the emerging markets and the asian markets? Will more $$$ flow into the US stock market?

I should have bought BAC at 33.20. If I hadn’t turned on the TV and listened to Cramer … sigh.

For someone with a better understanding of the index futures markets:
All of the sellers of futures today and yesterday are in a bit of trouble, are they not? The down 500+ predictions are getting torched at this point.

[HereWeGo]

Given the massive panic of the last couple of days, does this take the shine off of the emerging markets and the asian markets? Will more $$$ flow into the US stock market?

I should have bought BAC at 33.20. If I hadn’t turned on the TV and listened to Cramer … sigh.

For someone with a better understanding of the index futures markets:
All of the sellers of futures today and yesterday are in a bit of trouble, are they not? The down 500+ predictions are getting torched at this point.

[HereWeGo]

Given the massive panic of the last couple of days, does this take the shine off of the emerging markets and the asian markets? Will more $$$ flow into the US stock market?

I should have bought BAC at 33.20. If I hadn’t turned on the TV and listened to Cramer … sigh.

For someone with a better understanding of the index futures markets:
All of the sellers of futures today and yesterday are in a bit of trouble, are they not? The down 500+ predictions are getting torched at this point.

[Coronita]

Cool, we're above 12000 again. Time to get out of my DUG position myself, though my rest of my portfolio looks a little pathetic.

[img_assist|nid=5962|title=selfportrait|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=100|height=80]

—– Sour grapes for everyone!

[Coronita]

Cool, we're above 12000 again. Time to get out of my DUG position myself, though my rest of my portfolio looks a little pathetic.

[img_assist|nid=5962|title=selfportrait|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=100|height=80]

—– Sour grapes for everyone!

[Coronita]

Cool, we're above 12000 again. Time to get out of my DUG position myself, though my rest of my portfolio looks a little pathetic.

[img_assist|nid=5962|title=selfportrait|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=100|height=80]

—– Sour grapes for everyone!

[Coronita]

Cool, we're above 12000 again. Time to get out of my DUG position myself, though my rest of my portfolio looks a little pathetic.

[img_assist|nid=5962|title=selfportrait|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=100|height=80]

—– Sour grapes for everyone!

[HappyHouseHunting]

Cramer says we have hit the bottom. Right??

[stockstradr]

Cramer?

He’s an idiot. Rear Barron’s report on his stock picks UNDERperforming the indexes over many years.

But, I am guessing he’s right in this case that yesterday saw the short-term bottom. I’m expecting this “bump” continues up a couple percent maybe 5%. I’m currently LONG this market, except for my short oil sector position. I am guessing that markets head up for a few weeks (days?) and then continue their long nasty slide down much further into the dark abyss.

I did buy NOK yesterday, got very lucky on that. Up 15% in 24 hours, off yesterday’s bottom. I should have bought more of that NOK yesterday. (I only made enough to pay for a family vacation, not enough for a new car.)

For those who said at $865/ounce, gold was headed SOUTH…

You were WRONG, so far.

I should have ignored those forum posts. I currently have 25% of my portfolio in gold, but your comments made me hesitate and I missed $20 of this recent $40 move up to $910 because i listened to you gold bears.

Next stop for gold: $1200/ounce, and we reach that price sooner than you expect. I say this year.

[stockstradr]

Cramer?

He’s an idiot. Rear Barron’s report on his stock picks UNDERperforming the indexes over many years.

But, I am guessing he’s right in this case that yesterday saw the short-term bottom. I’m expecting this “bump” continues up a couple percent maybe 5%. I’m currently LONG this market, except for my short oil sector position. I am guessing that markets head up for a few weeks (days?) and then continue their long nasty slide down much further into the dark abyss.

I did buy NOK yesterday, got very lucky on that. Up 15% in 24 hours, off yesterday’s bottom. I should have bought more of that NOK yesterday. (I only made enough to pay for a family vacation, not enough for a new car.)

For those who said at $865/ounce, gold was headed SOUTH…

You were WRONG, so far.

I should have ignored those forum posts. I currently have 25% of my portfolio in gold, but your comments made me hesitate and I missed $20 of this recent $40 move up to $910 because i listened to you gold bears.

Next stop for gold: $1200/ounce, and we reach that price sooner than you expect. I say this year.

[stockstradr]

Cramer?

He’s an idiot. Rear Barron’s report on his stock picks UNDERperforming the indexes over many years.

But, I am guessing he’s right in this case that yesterday saw the short-term bottom. I’m expecting this “bump” continues up a couple percent maybe 5%. I’m currently LONG this market, except for my short oil sector position. I am guessing that markets head up for a few weeks (days?) and then continue their long nasty slide down much further into the dark abyss.

I did buy NOK yesterday, got very lucky on that. Up 15% in 24 hours, off yesterday’s bottom. I should have bought more of that NOK yesterday. (I only made enough to pay for a family vacation, not enough for a new car.)

For those who said at $865/ounce, gold was headed SOUTH…

You were WRONG, so far.

I should have ignored those forum posts. I currently have 25% of my portfolio in gold, but your comments made me hesitate and I missed $20 of this recent $40 move up to $910 because i listened to you gold bears.

Next stop for gold: $1200/ounce, and we reach that price sooner than you expect. I say this year.

[stockstradr]

Cramer?

He’s an idiot. Rear Barron’s report on his stock picks UNDERperforming the indexes over many years.

But, I am guessing he’s right in this case that yesterday saw the short-term bottom. I’m expecting this “bump” continues up a couple percent maybe 5%. I’m currently LONG this market, except for my short oil sector position. I am guessing that markets head up for a few weeks (days?) and then continue their long nasty slide down much further into the dark abyss.

I did buy NOK yesterday, got very lucky on that. Up 15% in 24 hours, off yesterday’s bottom. I should have bought more of that NOK yesterday. (I only made enough to pay for a family vacation, not enough for a new car.)

For those who said at $865/ounce, gold was headed SOUTH…

You were WRONG, so far.

I should have ignored those forum posts. I currently have 25% of my portfolio in gold, but your comments made me hesitate and I missed $20 of this recent $40 move up to $910 because i listened to you gold bears.

Next stop for gold: $1200/ounce, and we reach that price sooner than you expect. I say this year.

[stockstradr]

Cramer?

He’s an idiot. Rear Barron’s report on his stock picks UNDERperforming the indexes over many years.

But, I am guessing he’s right in this case that yesterday saw the short-term bottom. I’m expecting this “bump” continues up a couple percent maybe 5%. I’m currently LONG this market, except for my short oil sector position. I am guessing that markets head up for a few weeks (days?) and then continue their long nasty slide down much further into the dark abyss.

I did buy NOK yesterday, got very lucky on that. Up 15% in 24 hours, off yesterday’s bottom. I should have bought more of that NOK yesterday. (I only made enough to pay for a family vacation, not enough for a new car.)

For those who said at $865/ounce, gold was headed SOUTH…

You were WRONG, so far.

I should have ignored those forum posts. I currently have 25% of my portfolio in gold, but your comments made me hesitate and I missed $20 of this recent $40 move up to $910 because i listened to you gold bears.

Next stop for gold: $1200/ounce, and we reach that price sooner than you expect. I say this year.

[HappyHouseHunting]

Cramer says we have hit the bottom. Right??

[HappyHouseHunting]

Cramer says we have hit the bottom. Right??

[HappyHouseHunting]

Cramer says we have hit the bottom. Right??

[HappyHouseHunting]

Cramer says we have hit the bottom. Right??

[Author]

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