Massive 26% Markdown on Carmel Valley McMansion

[SD Realtor]

“Cookie cutter tract house with small usable lot…. Even though it’s over 4000 sqfts, it’s still way overpriced.

I won’t look at it until it returns to price below $750s range. ”

Masakayo I do not believe it will ever get there. They already have 3 offers and I know of a 4th being written tonite. I also have heard that there has been alot of traffic.

The home right near it on Mesa Norte which is 5500 is not on the MLS yet as the lender is still pricing it. It will most likely fetch between 1.7-2M. Still a reduction compared to the 2.2+M it sold for.

***********

meandale – I don’t know who buys a home and leaves it like it is, but again, most flippers do not expose 300k cash unless it belongs to someone else..Back to the age old argument…if you can get someone to loan ya the money without recourse why in the world would you not do that? So I don’t know who did it, but I would bet that it was not a flipper.

Also the home on Mesa Norte that went for 2.2M and change is an REO. He only had 200k into it. From what I have found out about the owner he was definitely not a flipper but that home is very close by to Mesa Norte and it has not even hit the MLS yet and has had substantial activity on it.

*********

Mr Wrong you have pretty keen insights. I guess my point is that I do not ever claim to understand any behavior of any buyer at all except that they are all different. As you pointed out many are indeed driven by emotion and I would venture to guess more then the 50% number. However as many who post here simply cannot even begin to fathom how people would ever buy in a market like this, many who do buy cannot even begin to fathom ever renting a home. That cost is not an issue for them regardless of the fact that they are not independently wealthy. Am I saying either party is right or wrong? Well not really but for me personally I tend to fall on the side of people here simply because I am not as wealthy as I want to be. Yet I think you touched on an important point that this site is based on hard numbers more and psychology less. There is nothing wrong with that at all except expectation levels of market movement are not adjusted because logic does not account for that. Logic dictates that there should NOT BE 25,000 homes sold if everyone looked at this as only a financial issue. BTW 25K is a piss poor year right?

There is no right or wrong here at all. Yet, I think ….well like you said Mr Wrong, you need patience to wait it out… and in some cases the price levels people think may occur for some homes may indeed not occur.

Please don’t confuse this with an endorsement to buy now or anything like that.

SD Realtor

[mrwrong]

The analysis on this site may very well be rational, but the people here are definitely emotional. Otherwise SDR would not need to sign every other posts with the following line:

Please don’t confuse this with an endorsement to buy now or anything like that.

Kindof sad.

Mr. Wrong

[mrwrong]

The analysis on this site may very well be rational, but the people here are definitely emotional. Otherwise SDR would not need to sign every other posts with the following line:

Please don’t confuse this with an endorsement to buy now or anything like that.

Kindof sad.

Mr. Wrong

[mrwrong]

The analysis on this site may very well be rational, but the people here are definitely emotional. Otherwise SDR would not need to sign every other posts with the following line:

Please don’t confuse this with an endorsement to buy now or anything like that.

Kindof sad.

Mr. Wrong

[mrwrong]

The analysis on this site may very well be rational, but the people here are definitely emotional. Otherwise SDR would not need to sign every other posts with the following line:

Please don’t confuse this with an endorsement to buy now or anything like that.

Kindof sad.

Mr. Wrong

[mrwrong]

The analysis on this site may very well be rational, but the people here are definitely emotional. Otherwise SDR would not need to sign every other posts with the following line:

Please don’t confuse this with an endorsement to buy now or anything like that.

Kindof sad.

Mr. Wrong

[DWCAP]

Mr. Wong,
I totally agree with you about buyer psycology. I have no idea why about half the people buying homes are right now except to say that they want it. We are not a society built on self denial. I think it would be really interesting if the relators released a survey about buyer reasons for buying. You know, Moving up, sizing down, better schools, etc. I really want to see how many really check the suposid savior box, foreign buyer with too much money. This may be true in NY, or Miami, Hell even La Jolla and Downtown will have some of these. But Muhammad and all his oil billions isnt looking into buying a 2/1 800sqft 20 year old condo in Santee.
I disagree with you about Carmel Valley. I think it will get hit, and hard. It wont be like the IE. BUT it will suffer, just not yet. I dont even think 2008. I am thinking 2011. Here is why. That is 6-12 months after all the PRIME option-arms start hitting their stride. The last recession was felt for about 3 years, (ala 2000-2003). For some reason, that feels about right to me. So call it 2008-2010. Incomes wont have been going up much, jobs will be stagnant, and interest rates really dont have much more that they can go down from today. All of a sudden people who really havnt been getting ahead will feel the pain of subprime today. It will be an all new “crisis” that no one could foresee. We arent going into a depression IMHO, that is stupid scare tatics used to sell news. But a 2-3 bear market to work off the excesses of the largest comodity binge in history seems quite normal.
I back that up with an factoid gleaned from a link on this page to the SF Chronicle (ill look to find it). A buyer of a $1000000 home needs an income about $200000/yr to support the monthy payment. With an interest only, it is only $95000/yr. That is a great income, but not enough to buy a million dollar morgage. The idea was buy now, get into a house in CV before you were priced out, and then refinance when your income went up. No inceased buying power (recessions happen) along with that kinda morgage no longer being available, and you have CV’s subprime. Is it gonna be as bad as the 2007 hit poor fokes took? Doubt it, there is alot more demand there, just not at those prices. But to say that we will inflate our way out of this mess ANYWHERE in SoCal reads to me like the forcasts of price appreciation in 2007 by the NAR. You cant just say it is different here.

[DWCAP]

Mr. Wong,
I totally agree with you about buyer psycology. I have no idea why about half the people buying homes are right now except to say that they want it. We are not a society built on self denial. I think it would be really interesting if the relators released a survey about buyer reasons for buying. You know, Moving up, sizing down, better schools, etc. I really want to see how many really check the suposid savior box, foreign buyer with too much money. This may be true in NY, or Miami, Hell even La Jolla and Downtown will have some of these. But Muhammad and all his oil billions isnt looking into buying a 2/1 800sqft 20 year old condo in Santee.
I disagree with you about Carmel Valley. I think it will get hit, and hard. It wont be like the IE. BUT it will suffer, just not yet. I dont even think 2008. I am thinking 2011. Here is why. That is 6-12 months after all the PRIME option-arms start hitting their stride. The last recession was felt for about 3 years, (ala 2000-2003). For some reason, that feels about right to me. So call it 2008-2010. Incomes wont have been going up much, jobs will be stagnant, and interest rates really dont have much more that they can go down from today. All of a sudden people who really havnt been getting ahead will feel the pain of subprime today. It will be an all new “crisis” that no one could foresee. We arent going into a depression IMHO, that is stupid scare tatics used to sell news. But a 2-3 bear market to work off the excesses of the largest comodity binge in history seems quite normal.
I back that up with an factoid gleaned from a link on this page to the SF Chronicle (ill look to find it). A buyer of a $1000000 home needs an income about $200000/yr to support the monthy payment. With an interest only, it is only $95000/yr. That is a great income, but not enough to buy a million dollar morgage. The idea was buy now, get into a house in CV before you were priced out, and then refinance when your income went up. No inceased buying power (recessions happen) along with that kinda morgage no longer being available, and you have CV’s subprime. Is it gonna be as bad as the 2007 hit poor fokes took? Doubt it, there is alot more demand there, just not at those prices. But to say that we will inflate our way out of this mess ANYWHERE in SoCal reads to me like the forcasts of price appreciation in 2007 by the NAR. You cant just say it is different here.

[DWCAP]

Mr. Wong,
I totally agree with you about buyer psycology. I have no idea why about half the people buying homes are right now except to say that they want it. We are not a society built on self denial. I think it would be really interesting if the relators released a survey about buyer reasons for buying. You know, Moving up, sizing down, better schools, etc. I really want to see how many really check the suposid savior box, foreign buyer with too much money. This may be true in NY, or Miami, Hell even La Jolla and Downtown will have some of these. But Muhammad and all his oil billions isnt looking into buying a 2/1 800sqft 20 year old condo in Santee.
I disagree with you about Carmel Valley. I think it will get hit, and hard. It wont be like the IE. BUT it will suffer, just not yet. I dont even think 2008. I am thinking 2011. Here is why. That is 6-12 months after all the PRIME option-arms start hitting their stride. The last recession was felt for about 3 years, (ala 2000-2003). For some reason, that feels about right to me. So call it 2008-2010. Incomes wont have been going up much, jobs will be stagnant, and interest rates really dont have much more that they can go down from today. All of a sudden people who really havnt been getting ahead will feel the pain of subprime today. It will be an all new “crisis” that no one could foresee. We arent going into a depression IMHO, that is stupid scare tatics used to sell news. But a 2-3 bear market to work off the excesses of the largest comodity binge in history seems quite normal.
I back that up with an factoid gleaned from a link on this page to the SF Chronicle (ill look to find it). A buyer of a $1000000 home needs an income about $200000/yr to support the monthy payment. With an interest only, it is only $95000/yr. That is a great income, but not enough to buy a million dollar morgage. The idea was buy now, get into a house in CV before you were priced out, and then refinance when your income went up. No inceased buying power (recessions happen) along with that kinda morgage no longer being available, and you have CV’s subprime. Is it gonna be as bad as the 2007 hit poor fokes took? Doubt it, there is alot more demand there, just not at those prices. But to say that we will inflate our way out of this mess ANYWHERE in SoCal reads to me like the forcasts of price appreciation in 2007 by the NAR. You cant just say it is different here.

[DWCAP]

Mr. Wong,
I totally agree with you about buyer psycology. I have no idea why about half the people buying homes are right now except to say that they want it. We are not a society built on self denial. I think it would be really interesting if the relators released a survey about buyer reasons for buying. You know, Moving up, sizing down, better schools, etc. I really want to see how many really check the suposid savior box, foreign buyer with too much money. This may be true in NY, or Miami, Hell even La Jolla and Downtown will have some of these. But Muhammad and all his oil billions isnt looking into buying a 2/1 800sqft 20 year old condo in Santee.
I disagree with you about Carmel Valley. I think it will get hit, and hard. It wont be like the IE. BUT it will suffer, just not yet. I dont even think 2008. I am thinking 2011. Here is why. That is 6-12 months after all the PRIME option-arms start hitting their stride. The last recession was felt for about 3 years, (ala 2000-2003). For some reason, that feels about right to me. So call it 2008-2010. Incomes wont have been going up much, jobs will be stagnant, and interest rates really dont have much more that they can go down from today. All of a sudden people who really havnt been getting ahead will feel the pain of subprime today. It will be an all new “crisis” that no one could foresee. We arent going into a depression IMHO, that is stupid scare tatics used to sell news. But a 2-3 bear market to work off the excesses of the largest comodity binge in history seems quite normal.
I back that up with an factoid gleaned from a link on this page to the SF Chronicle (ill look to find it). A buyer of a $1000000 home needs an income about $200000/yr to support the monthy payment. With an interest only, it is only $95000/yr. That is a great income, but not enough to buy a million dollar morgage. The idea was buy now, get into a house in CV before you were priced out, and then refinance when your income went up. No inceased buying power (recessions happen) along with that kinda morgage no longer being available, and you have CV’s subprime. Is it gonna be as bad as the 2007 hit poor fokes took? Doubt it, there is alot more demand there, just not at those prices. But to say that we will inflate our way out of this mess ANYWHERE in SoCal reads to me like the forcasts of price appreciation in 2007 by the NAR. You cant just say it is different here.

[DWCAP]

Mr. Wong,
I totally agree with you about buyer psycology. I have no idea why about half the people buying homes are right now except to say that they want it. We are not a society built on self denial. I think it would be really interesting if the relators released a survey about buyer reasons for buying. You know, Moving up, sizing down, better schools, etc. I really want to see how many really check the suposid savior box, foreign buyer with too much money. This may be true in NY, or Miami, Hell even La Jolla and Downtown will have some of these. But Muhammad and all his oil billions isnt looking into buying a 2/1 800sqft 20 year old condo in Santee.
I disagree with you about Carmel Valley. I think it will get hit, and hard. It wont be like the IE. BUT it will suffer, just not yet. I dont even think 2008. I am thinking 2011. Here is why. That is 6-12 months after all the PRIME option-arms start hitting their stride. The last recession was felt for about 3 years, (ala 2000-2003). For some reason, that feels about right to me. So call it 2008-2010. Incomes wont have been going up much, jobs will be stagnant, and interest rates really dont have much more that they can go down from today. All of a sudden people who really havnt been getting ahead will feel the pain of subprime today. It will be an all new “crisis” that no one could foresee. We arent going into a depression IMHO, that is stupid scare tatics used to sell news. But a 2-3 bear market to work off the excesses of the largest comodity binge in history seems quite normal.
I back that up with an factoid gleaned from a link on this page to the SF Chronicle (ill look to find it). A buyer of a $1000000 home needs an income about $200000/yr to support the monthy payment. With an interest only, it is only $95000/yr. That is a great income, but not enough to buy a million dollar morgage. The idea was buy now, get into a house in CV before you were priced out, and then refinance when your income went up. No inceased buying power (recessions happen) along with that kinda morgage no longer being available, and you have CV’s subprime. Is it gonna be as bad as the 2007 hit poor fokes took? Doubt it, there is alot more demand there, just not at those prices. But to say that we will inflate our way out of this mess ANYWHERE in SoCal reads to me like the forcasts of price appreciation in 2007 by the NAR. You cant just say it is different here.

[jonnycsd]

One thought on the type of person who would put $300K into a $2MM home then walk away – a bubble industry person who earned commission – like a MORTGAGE BROKER. Extremely high income the last few years but recently many of them have lost thier jobs or at least commissions. They should have read Pigginton. Lets hear a piggy cheer for the brokers’ bleeding. Those jerks made money by making it WAY to easy for people to buy homes. (Sarcasm intentional).

Mr. Wrong, yes, many posters here are emmotionally invested in the “rightness” of thier bearish predictions even if the predictions are based on reasonable objective analysis. And the piggers tend to attack those who contradict the party line – even though some versions are extreme (c’mon piggers – forget about a 60% price cut accross the board in nominal dollar terms – it will never happen. “The system” – congress, wall street, the Fed, and voters – will not allow it to happen – who ever is waiting for that outcome will be waiting forever or until thier naivete wears off).

Piggington is not a professional investors board, it is more like a dog fight and the crowd has already picked the winning dog. The bleeding (and the cheering) will continue. Interfere with schadenfruede on this board at your own peril.

[jonnycsd]

One thought on the type of person who would put $300K into a $2MM home then walk away – a bubble industry person who earned commission – like a MORTGAGE BROKER. Extremely high income the last few years but recently many of them have lost thier jobs or at least commissions. They should have read Pigginton. Lets hear a piggy cheer for the brokers’ bleeding. Those jerks made money by making it WAY to easy for people to buy homes. (Sarcasm intentional).

Mr. Wrong, yes, many posters here are emmotionally invested in the “rightness” of thier bearish predictions even if the predictions are based on reasonable objective analysis. And the piggers tend to attack those who contradict the party line – even though some versions are extreme (c’mon piggers – forget about a 60% price cut accross the board in nominal dollar terms – it will never happen. “The system” – congress, wall street, the Fed, and voters – will not allow it to happen – who ever is waiting for that outcome will be waiting forever or until thier naivete wears off).

Piggington is not a professional investors board, it is more like a dog fight and the crowd has already picked the winning dog. The bleeding (and the cheering) will continue. Interfere with schadenfruede on this board at your own peril.

[jonnycsd]

One thought on the type of person who would put $300K into a $2MM home then walk away – a bubble industry person who earned commission – like a MORTGAGE BROKER. Extremely high income the last few years but recently many of them have lost thier jobs or at least commissions. They should have read Pigginton. Lets hear a piggy cheer for the brokers’ bleeding. Those jerks made money by making it WAY to easy for people to buy homes. (Sarcasm intentional).

Mr. Wrong, yes, many posters here are emmotionally invested in the “rightness” of thier bearish predictions even if the predictions are based on reasonable objective analysis. And the piggers tend to attack those who contradict the party line – even though some versions are extreme (c’mon piggers – forget about a 60% price cut accross the board in nominal dollar terms – it will never happen. “The system” – congress, wall street, the Fed, and voters – will not allow it to happen – who ever is waiting for that outcome will be waiting forever or until thier naivete wears off).

Piggington is not a professional investors board, it is more like a dog fight and the crowd has already picked the winning dog. The bleeding (and the cheering) will continue. Interfere with schadenfruede on this board at your own peril.

[jonnycsd]

One thought on the type of person who would put $300K into a $2MM home then walk away – a bubble industry person who earned commission – like a MORTGAGE BROKER. Extremely high income the last few years but recently many of them have lost thier jobs or at least commissions. They should have read Pigginton. Lets hear a piggy cheer for the brokers’ bleeding. Those jerks made money by making it WAY to easy for people to buy homes. (Sarcasm intentional).

Mr. Wrong, yes, many posters here are emmotionally invested in the “rightness” of thier bearish predictions even if the predictions are based on reasonable objective analysis. And the piggers tend to attack those who contradict the party line – even though some versions are extreme (c’mon piggers – forget about a 60% price cut accross the board in nominal dollar terms – it will never happen. “The system” – congress, wall street, the Fed, and voters – will not allow it to happen – who ever is waiting for that outcome will be waiting forever or until thier naivete wears off).

Piggington is not a professional investors board, it is more like a dog fight and the crowd has already picked the winning dog. The bleeding (and the cheering) will continue. Interfere with schadenfruede on this board at your own peril.

[Author]

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