Massive 26% Markdown on Carmel Valley McMansion

[New_Renter]

http://www.sdlookup.com/MLS-076096902-6515_Caminito_Stella_San_Diego_CA_92130

Purchased 7/22/05 for $2,035,000
For Sale: $1,499,000

This is an REO orginally built by Barratt American right at the height of the craziness. There is at least one other REO in this small development (Paso Fino) in the Del Mar Ridge area of CV that hasn’t come on the market yet (6473 Mesa Norte).

See:
http://www.zillow.com/HomeDetails.htm?zprop=69021686

What do you all think? Could these mark the beginning of a Carmel Valley meltdown?

[Bugs]

That’s not the only Barratt project with problems. Their Magnolia Ranch project at Bressi has been online for 18 months now and they’ve only sold 13 units out of the 30. One of those is already going into foreclosure.

[pfflyer]

I asked this before with no responses but is the Grand Del Mar only for resort guests or are memberships available? If so does anyone know how much? Any info on Carmel Valley is appreciated. Thanks….

[pfflyer]

I asked this before with no responses but is the Grand Del Mar only for resort guests or are memberships available? If so does anyone know how much? Any info on Carmel Valley is appreciated. Thanks….

[pfflyer]

I asked this before with no responses but is the Grand Del Mar only for resort guests or are memberships available? If so does anyone know how much? Any info on Carmel Valley is appreciated. Thanks….

[pfflyer]

I asked this before with no responses but is the Grand Del Mar only for resort guests or are memberships available? If so does anyone know how much? Any info on Carmel Valley is appreciated. Thanks….

[pfflyer]

I asked this before with no responses but is the Grand Del Mar only for resort guests or are memberships available? If so does anyone know how much? Any info on Carmel Valley is appreciated. Thanks….

[Bugs]

That’s not the only Barratt project with problems. Their Magnolia Ranch project at Bressi has been online for 18 months now and they’ve only sold 13 units out of the 30. One of those is already going into foreclosure.

[Bugs]

That’s not the only Barratt project with problems. Their Magnolia Ranch project at Bressi has been online for 18 months now and they’ve only sold 13 units out of the 30. One of those is already going into foreclosure.

[Bugs]

That’s not the only Barratt project with problems. Their Magnolia Ranch project at Bressi has been online for 18 months now and they’ve only sold 13 units out of the 30. One of those is already going into foreclosure.

[Bugs]

That’s not the only Barratt project with problems. Their Magnolia Ranch project at Bressi has been online for 18 months now and they’ve only sold 13 units out of the 30. One of those is already going into foreclosure.

[Coronita]

Just curious. Is this side of CV Poway Unified? It's roughly in the middle of 56.  

 

[img_assist|nid=5962|title=selfportrait|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=100|height=80]

—– Sour grapes for everyone!

[New_Renter]

No, this is Carmel Valley schools. You get there by exiting at Carmel Country Rd., which is only a couple of miles in from I-5, but then have to drive on Del Mar Mesa Rd a couple of miles further east. It is directly across the canyon from Canyon Crest Academy.

[New_Renter]

No, this is Carmel Valley schools. You get there by exiting at Carmel Country Rd., which is only a couple of miles in from I-5, but then have to drive on Del Mar Mesa Rd a couple of miles further east. It is directly across the canyon from Canyon Crest Academy.

[New_Renter]

No, this is Carmel Valley schools. You get there by exiting at Carmel Country Rd., which is only a couple of miles in from I-5, but then have to drive on Del Mar Mesa Rd a couple of miles further east. It is directly across the canyon from Canyon Crest Academy.

[New_Renter]

No, this is Carmel Valley schools. You get there by exiting at Carmel Country Rd., which is only a couple of miles in from I-5, but then have to drive on Del Mar Mesa Rd a couple of miles further east. It is directly across the canyon from Canyon Crest Academy.

[New_Renter]

No, this is Carmel Valley schools. You get there by exiting at Carmel Country Rd., which is only a couple of miles in from I-5, but then have to drive on Del Mar Mesa Rd a couple of miles further east. It is directly across the canyon from Canyon Crest Academy.

[Coronita]

Just curious. Is this side of CV Poway Unified? It's roughly in the middle of 56.  

 

[img_assist|nid=5962|title=selfportrait|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=100|height=80]

—– Sour grapes for everyone!

[Coronita]

Just curious. Is this side of CV Poway Unified? It's roughly in the middle of 56.  

 

[img_assist|nid=5962|title=selfportrait|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=100|height=80]

—– Sour grapes for everyone!

[Coronita]

Just curious. Is this side of CV Poway Unified? It's roughly in the middle of 56.  

 

[img_assist|nid=5962|title=selfportrait|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=100|height=80]

—– Sour grapes for everyone!

[Coronita]

Just curious. Is this side of CV Poway Unified? It's roughly in the middle of 56.  

 

[img_assist|nid=5962|title=selfportrait|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=100|height=80]

—– Sour grapes for everyone!

[patientrenter]

Hmmm… I thought the people who’d bought $2 million homes at the peak weren’t subject to price pressures or foreclosure risk. It’s fascinating to watch this tide go out.

Why would anyone borrow more than $1 million if the interest on the excess over $1 million is not deductible? Is everyone in the wealthiest 1% earning more than 6% on their money net of taxes?

Patient renter in OC

[zk]

I don’t know if it’s the beginning of a CV meltdown (I hope it is), but that’s a very low (relative to recent sales) price for a 4800 sf house on an acre of useable land. In fact, I’ll be quite surprised if that doesn’t sell this week for at least the asking price. As long as it doesn’t sell for a lot more than that it will be a definite comp killer.

[mrwrong]

I wouldn’t read too much into this one listing. Judging from its location on the map, this is definitely not “mainstream” CV and from the picture, it does not look like it has over one acre of usable land.

Mr. Wrong

[bsrsharma]

From the pictures, it doesn’t look like a million $ property. A smart bottom fisher would wait it out.

[bsrsharma]

From the pictures, it doesn’t look like a million $ property. A smart bottom fisher would wait it out.

[bsrsharma]

From the pictures, it doesn’t look like a million $ property. A smart bottom fisher would wait it out.

[bsrsharma]

From the pictures, it doesn’t look like a million $ property. A smart bottom fisher would wait it out.

[bsrsharma]

From the pictures, it doesn’t look like a million $ property. A smart bottom fisher would wait it out.

[zk]

You’re right, Mr. Wrong, it doesn’t have an acre of useable land. It doesn’t even have an especially big yard, as it turns out.

But as far as it being mainstream CV, while I’d agree that it’s not mainstream CV, I’d say that that’s because it’s more desireable than mainstream CV.

In any case, I still think it’ll end up being a lower comp than most recent ones.

[SD Realtor]

You guys will love the listing history on this one. Original purchase in 7/05. First mtg for 1.424, second for 300k. So the homeowner did lose 300k of his own loot. The house has been on the MLS since August of 2006. Realist (which is the tax roll service used by Sandicor) is slow to get updates and has the home still owned by the homeowner and not the bank. However the NOT filed was for an auction date of 11/07 so I bet they had an offer on a short sale, it crashed and burned and the auction was postponed but now happened or will happen tomorrow especially since the listing says it is bank owned.

Anyways no this is not mainstream CV however it is very nice to see this 30% cut from the 2005 sales price. The home will go quick at this price. Not even close to an acre of usable ground as there is a slope that is in the lot. As you said zk it is more desireable in this part of CV and this will help bring down the comps there.

SD Realtor

[bsrsharma]

SDR,

What could be the reason the buyer bought in 7/05 and wanted to sell in 8/06? At 6%, transaction costs would be about $100K. Was this a case of pure speculation or something else? The reason I am asking this is, I see many transactions like this – buying and then trying to sell in 12 -18 months. Surely, they didn’t plan on living there just for a year.

[gracie]

what is amazing to me is that land is still be cleared and by Pardee Homes to start a new set of homes/development they plan to build off Camino del Sur. More homes?

[gracie]

what is amazing to me is that land is still be cleared and by Pardee Homes to start a new set of homes/development they plan to build off Camino del Sur. More homes?

[gracie]

what is amazing to me is that land is still be cleared and by Pardee Homes to start a new set of homes/development they plan to build off Camino del Sur. More homes?

[gracie]

what is amazing to me is that land is still be cleared and by Pardee Homes to start a new set of homes/development they plan to build off Camino del Sur. More homes?

[gracie]

what is amazing to me is that land is still be cleared and by Pardee Homes to start a new set of homes/development they plan to build off Camino del Sur. More homes?

[SD Realtor]

BSR it is hard to say. I have said it before and will say it once more, that is, I believe there is a fundamental misunderstanding about buyer behavior on this site. I cannot argue about the fundamental message from many on this site about how much money can be saved by waiting to buy. No argument at all. Yet there were still 25,000 homes sold this year! That does not include FSBO’s and perhaps other new home sales right? So what drives all these people? Surely many of them know the market is down and moving downward… so what drove them?

It is not all about the money right? I know many people who bought this year. Many of them are quite successful, intelligent, and understand the market dynamics and direction. The factors that drove them to buying obviously outweighed the depreciation factor.

Don’t get me wrong, I am not advocating a strong buyers market or anything like that…

*******

Sorry for the detour… getting back to your question…who knows what the heck happened with Stella. There is another REO nearby on Mesa Norte that is not on the MLS yet and it went REO awhile ago. I posted about this home last spring because the owners tried to avoid foreclosure by transferring slices of title to entities they would start up. It was quite interesting. Eventually they were chased down and lost the home.

As for Stella yeah he closed escrow in 7/05 and put it on the market by 8/06. Was it pure speculation? Perhaps. Hard to say man… Most speculators don’t throw down 300k of thier own money though… so for this case my read would be doubtful but that is just a guess.

SD Realtor

[mrwrong]

SDR, interesting comments on the misunderstandings of buyer behaviors. People on this site are too rational imho. Too much analysis based on hard numbers not nearly enough on human psychology. To understand the market dynamics you need to realize the decision to buy a house for most families are at least 50% driven by emotions. This is why housing can get really overvalued and stay overvalued for a long time. The flip side of course is when the tide finally turns, it can overshoot on the downside as well, again driven more by emotions than the fundamentals. However, unlike other investments and assets, home is highly personal. Most people buy it as a place to live rather than as a speculation. People won’t sell unless they absolutely have to. This is why housing cycle tends to drag on for years. You need to be really patient in order to wait it out.

Mr. Wrong

[raptorduck]

Mr. Wrong.

I completely agree with you. Well put.

[raptorduck]

Mr. Wrong.

I completely agree with you. Well put.

[raptorduck]

Mr. Wrong.

I completely agree with you. Well put.

[raptorduck]

Mr. Wrong.

I completely agree with you. Well put.

[raptorduck]

Mr. Wrong.

I completely agree with you. Well put.

[SD Realtor]

“Cookie cutter tract house with small usable lot…. Even though it’s over 4000 sqfts, it’s still way overpriced.

I won’t look at it until it returns to price below $750s range. ”

Masakayo I do not believe it will ever get there. They already have 3 offers and I know of a 4th being written tonite. I also have heard that there has been alot of traffic.

The home right near it on Mesa Norte which is 5500 is not on the MLS yet as the lender is still pricing it. It will most likely fetch between 1.7-2M. Still a reduction compared to the 2.2+M it sold for.

***********

meandale – I don’t know who buys a home and leaves it like it is, but again, most flippers do not expose 300k cash unless it belongs to someone else..Back to the age old argument…if you can get someone to loan ya the money without recourse why in the world would you not do that? So I don’t know who did it, but I would bet that it was not a flipper.

Also the home on Mesa Norte that went for 2.2M and change is an REO. He only had 200k into it. From what I have found out about the owner he was definitely not a flipper but that home is very close by to Mesa Norte and it has not even hit the MLS yet and has had substantial activity on it.

*********

Mr Wrong you have pretty keen insights. I guess my point is that I do not ever claim to understand any behavior of any buyer at all except that they are all different. As you pointed out many are indeed driven by emotion and I would venture to guess more then the 50% number. However as many who post here simply cannot even begin to fathom how people would ever buy in a market like this, many who do buy cannot even begin to fathom ever renting a home. That cost is not an issue for them regardless of the fact that they are not independently wealthy. Am I saying either party is right or wrong? Well not really but for me personally I tend to fall on the side of people here simply because I am not as wealthy as I want to be. Yet I think you touched on an important point that this site is based on hard numbers more and psychology less. There is nothing wrong with that at all except expectation levels of market movement are not adjusted because logic does not account for that. Logic dictates that there should NOT BE 25,000 homes sold if everyone looked at this as only a financial issue. BTW 25K is a piss poor year right?

There is no right or wrong here at all. Yet, I think ….well like you said Mr Wrong, you need patience to wait it out… and in some cases the price levels people think may occur for some homes may indeed not occur.

Please don’t confuse this with an endorsement to buy now or anything like that.

SD Realtor

[mrwrong]

The analysis on this site may very well be rational, but the people here are definitely emotional. Otherwise SDR would not need to sign every other posts with the following line:

Please don’t confuse this with an endorsement to buy now or anything like that.

Kindof sad.

Mr. Wrong

[jonnycsd]

One thought on the type of person who would put $300K into a $2MM home then walk away – a bubble industry person who earned commission – like a MORTGAGE BROKER. Extremely high income the last few years but recently many of them have lost thier jobs or at least commissions. They should have read Pigginton. Lets hear a piggy cheer for the brokers’ bleeding. Those jerks made money by making it WAY to easy for people to buy homes. (Sarcasm intentional).

Mr. Wrong, yes, many posters here are emmotionally invested in the “rightness” of thier bearish predictions even if the predictions are based on reasonable objective analysis. And the piggers tend to attack those who contradict the party line – even though some versions are extreme (c’mon piggers – forget about a 60% price cut accross the board in nominal dollar terms – it will never happen. “The system” – congress, wall street, the Fed, and voters – will not allow it to happen – who ever is waiting for that outcome will be waiting forever or until thier naivete wears off).

Piggington is not a professional investors board, it is more like a dog fight and the crowd has already picked the winning dog. The bleeding (and the cheering) will continue. Interfere with schadenfruede on this board at your own peril.

[jonnycsd]

One thought on the type of person who would put $300K into a $2MM home then walk away – a bubble industry person who earned commission – like a MORTGAGE BROKER. Extremely high income the last few years but recently many of them have lost thier jobs or at least commissions. They should have read Pigginton. Lets hear a piggy cheer for the brokers’ bleeding. Those jerks made money by making it WAY to easy for people to buy homes. (Sarcasm intentional).

Mr. Wrong, yes, many posters here are emmotionally invested in the “rightness” of thier bearish predictions even if the predictions are based on reasonable objective analysis. And the piggers tend to attack those who contradict the party line – even though some versions are extreme (c’mon piggers – forget about a 60% price cut accross the board in nominal dollar terms – it will never happen. “The system” – congress, wall street, the Fed, and voters – will not allow it to happen – who ever is waiting for that outcome will be waiting forever or until thier naivete wears off).

Piggington is not a professional investors board, it is more like a dog fight and the crowd has already picked the winning dog. The bleeding (and the cheering) will continue. Interfere with schadenfruede on this board at your own peril.

[jonnycsd]

One thought on the type of person who would put $300K into a $2MM home then walk away – a bubble industry person who earned commission – like a MORTGAGE BROKER. Extremely high income the last few years but recently many of them have lost thier jobs or at least commissions. They should have read Pigginton. Lets hear a piggy cheer for the brokers’ bleeding. Those jerks made money by making it WAY to easy for people to buy homes. (Sarcasm intentional).

Mr. Wrong, yes, many posters here are emmotionally invested in the “rightness” of thier bearish predictions even if the predictions are based on reasonable objective analysis. And the piggers tend to attack those who contradict the party line – even though some versions are extreme (c’mon piggers – forget about a 60% price cut accross the board in nominal dollar terms – it will never happen. “The system” – congress, wall street, the Fed, and voters – will not allow it to happen – who ever is waiting for that outcome will be waiting forever or until thier naivete wears off).

Piggington is not a professional investors board, it is more like a dog fight and the crowd has already picked the winning dog. The bleeding (and the cheering) will continue. Interfere with schadenfruede on this board at your own peril.

[jonnycsd]

One thought on the type of person who would put $300K into a $2MM home then walk away – a bubble industry person who earned commission – like a MORTGAGE BROKER. Extremely high income the last few years but recently many of them have lost thier jobs or at least commissions. They should have read Pigginton. Lets hear a piggy cheer for the brokers’ bleeding. Those jerks made money by making it WAY to easy for people to buy homes. (Sarcasm intentional).

Mr. Wrong, yes, many posters here are emmotionally invested in the “rightness” of thier bearish predictions even if the predictions are based on reasonable objective analysis. And the piggers tend to attack those who contradict the party line – even though some versions are extreme (c’mon piggers – forget about a 60% price cut accross the board in nominal dollar terms – it will never happen. “The system” – congress, wall street, the Fed, and voters – will not allow it to happen – who ever is waiting for that outcome will be waiting forever or until thier naivete wears off).

Piggington is not a professional investors board, it is more like a dog fight and the crowd has already picked the winning dog. The bleeding (and the cheering) will continue. Interfere with schadenfruede on this board at your own peril.

[jonnycsd]

One thought on the type of person who would put $300K into a $2MM home then walk away – a bubble industry person who earned commission – like a MORTGAGE BROKER. Extremely high income the last few years but recently many of them have lost thier jobs or at least commissions. They should have read Pigginton. Lets hear a piggy cheer for the brokers’ bleeding. Those jerks made money by making it WAY to easy for people to buy homes. (Sarcasm intentional).

Mr. Wrong, yes, many posters here are emmotionally invested in the “rightness” of thier bearish predictions even if the predictions are based on reasonable objective analysis. And the piggers tend to attack those who contradict the party line – even though some versions are extreme (c’mon piggers – forget about a 60% price cut accross the board in nominal dollar terms – it will never happen. “The system” – congress, wall street, the Fed, and voters – will not allow it to happen – who ever is waiting for that outcome will be waiting forever or until thier naivete wears off).

Piggington is not a professional investors board, it is more like a dog fight and the crowd has already picked the winning dog. The bleeding (and the cheering) will continue. Interfere with schadenfruede on this board at your own peril.

[mrwrong]

The analysis on this site may very well be rational, but the people here are definitely emotional. Otherwise SDR would not need to sign every other posts with the following line:

Please don’t confuse this with an endorsement to buy now or anything like that.

Kindof sad.

Mr. Wrong

[mrwrong]

The analysis on this site may very well be rational, but the people here are definitely emotional. Otherwise SDR would not need to sign every other posts with the following line:

Please don’t confuse this with an endorsement to buy now or anything like that.

Kindof sad.

Mr. Wrong

[mrwrong]

The analysis on this site may very well be rational, but the people here are definitely emotional. Otherwise SDR would not need to sign every other posts with the following line:

Please don’t confuse this with an endorsement to buy now or anything like that.

Kindof sad.

Mr. Wrong

[mrwrong]

The analysis on this site may very well be rational, but the people here are definitely emotional. Otherwise SDR would not need to sign every other posts with the following line:

Please don’t confuse this with an endorsement to buy now or anything like that.

Kindof sad.

Mr. Wrong

[SD Realtor]

“Cookie cutter tract house with small usable lot…. Even though it’s over 4000 sqfts, it’s still way overpriced.

I won’t look at it until it returns to price below $750s range. ”

Masakayo I do not believe it will ever get there. They already have 3 offers and I know of a 4th being written tonite. I also have heard that there has been alot of traffic.

The home right near it on Mesa Norte which is 5500 is not on the MLS yet as the lender is still pricing it. It will most likely fetch between 1.7-2M. Still a reduction compared to the 2.2+M it sold for.

***********

meandale – I don’t know who buys a home and leaves it like it is, but again, most flippers do not expose 300k cash unless it belongs to someone else..Back to the age old argument…if you can get someone to loan ya the money without recourse why in the world would you not do that? So I don’t know who did it, but I would bet that it was not a flipper.

Also the home on Mesa Norte that went for 2.2M and change is an REO. He only had 200k into it. From what I have found out about the owner he was definitely not a flipper but that home is very close by to Mesa Norte and it has not even hit the MLS yet and has had substantial activity on it.

*********

Mr Wrong you have pretty keen insights. I guess my point is that I do not ever claim to understand any behavior of any buyer at all except that they are all different. As you pointed out many are indeed driven by emotion and I would venture to guess more then the 50% number. However as many who post here simply cannot even begin to fathom how people would ever buy in a market like this, many who do buy cannot even begin to fathom ever renting a home. That cost is not an issue for them regardless of the fact that they are not independently wealthy. Am I saying either party is right or wrong? Well not really but for me personally I tend to fall on the side of people here simply because I am not as wealthy as I want to be. Yet I think you touched on an important point that this site is based on hard numbers more and psychology less. There is nothing wrong with that at all except expectation levels of market movement are not adjusted because logic does not account for that. Logic dictates that there should NOT BE 25,000 homes sold if everyone looked at this as only a financial issue. BTW 25K is a piss poor year right?

There is no right or wrong here at all. Yet, I think ….well like you said Mr Wrong, you need patience to wait it out… and in some cases the price levels people think may occur for some homes may indeed not occur.

Please don’t confuse this with an endorsement to buy now or anything like that.

SD Realtor

[SD Realtor]

“Cookie cutter tract house with small usable lot…. Even though it’s over 4000 sqfts, it’s still way overpriced.

I won’t look at it until it returns to price below $750s range. ”

Masakayo I do not believe it will ever get there. They already have 3 offers and I know of a 4th being written tonite. I also have heard that there has been alot of traffic.

The home right near it on Mesa Norte which is 5500 is not on the MLS yet as the lender is still pricing it. It will most likely fetch between 1.7-2M. Still a reduction compared to the 2.2+M it sold for.

***********

meandale – I don’t know who buys a home and leaves it like it is, but again, most flippers do not expose 300k cash unless it belongs to someone else..Back to the age old argument…if you can get someone to loan ya the money without recourse why in the world would you not do that? So I don’t know who did it, but I would bet that it was not a flipper.

Also the home on Mesa Norte that went for 2.2M and change is an REO. He only had 200k into it. From what I have found out about the owner he was definitely not a flipper but that home is very close by to Mesa Norte and it has not even hit the MLS yet and has had substantial activity on it.

*********

Mr Wrong you have pretty keen insights. I guess my point is that I do not ever claim to understand any behavior of any buyer at all except that they are all different. As you pointed out many are indeed driven by emotion and I would venture to guess more then the 50% number. However as many who post here simply cannot even begin to fathom how people would ever buy in a market like this, many who do buy cannot even begin to fathom ever renting a home. That cost is not an issue for them regardless of the fact that they are not independently wealthy. Am I saying either party is right or wrong? Well not really but for me personally I tend to fall on the side of people here simply because I am not as wealthy as I want to be. Yet I think you touched on an important point that this site is based on hard numbers more and psychology less. There is nothing wrong with that at all except expectation levels of market movement are not adjusted because logic does not account for that. Logic dictates that there should NOT BE 25,000 homes sold if everyone looked at this as only a financial issue. BTW 25K is a piss poor year right?

There is no right or wrong here at all. Yet, I think ….well like you said Mr Wrong, you need patience to wait it out… and in some cases the price levels people think may occur for some homes may indeed not occur.

Please don’t confuse this with an endorsement to buy now or anything like that.

SD Realtor

[SD Realtor]

“Cookie cutter tract house with small usable lot…. Even though it’s over 4000 sqfts, it’s still way overpriced.

I won’t look at it until it returns to price below $750s range. ”

Masakayo I do not believe it will ever get there. They already have 3 offers and I know of a 4th being written tonite. I also have heard that there has been alot of traffic.

The home right near it on Mesa Norte which is 5500 is not on the MLS yet as the lender is still pricing it. It will most likely fetch between 1.7-2M. Still a reduction compared to the 2.2+M it sold for.

***********

meandale – I don’t know who buys a home and leaves it like it is, but again, most flippers do not expose 300k cash unless it belongs to someone else..Back to the age old argument…if you can get someone to loan ya the money without recourse why in the world would you not do that? So I don’t know who did it, but I would bet that it was not a flipper.

Also the home on Mesa Norte that went for 2.2M and change is an REO. He only had 200k into it. From what I have found out about the owner he was definitely not a flipper but that home is very close by to Mesa Norte and it has not even hit the MLS yet and has had substantial activity on it.

*********

Mr Wrong you have pretty keen insights. I guess my point is that I do not ever claim to understand any behavior of any buyer at all except that they are all different. As you pointed out many are indeed driven by emotion and I would venture to guess more then the 50% number. However as many who post here simply cannot even begin to fathom how people would ever buy in a market like this, many who do buy cannot even begin to fathom ever renting a home. That cost is not an issue for them regardless of the fact that they are not independently wealthy. Am I saying either party is right or wrong? Well not really but for me personally I tend to fall on the side of people here simply because I am not as wealthy as I want to be. Yet I think you touched on an important point that this site is based on hard numbers more and psychology less. There is nothing wrong with that at all except expectation levels of market movement are not adjusted because logic does not account for that. Logic dictates that there should NOT BE 25,000 homes sold if everyone looked at this as only a financial issue. BTW 25K is a piss poor year right?

There is no right or wrong here at all. Yet, I think ….well like you said Mr Wrong, you need patience to wait it out… and in some cases the price levels people think may occur for some homes may indeed not occur.

Please don’t confuse this with an endorsement to buy now or anything like that.

SD Realtor

[SD Realtor]

“Cookie cutter tract house with small usable lot…. Even though it’s over 4000 sqfts, it’s still way overpriced.

I won’t look at it until it returns to price below $750s range. ”

Masakayo I do not believe it will ever get there. They already have 3 offers and I know of a 4th being written tonite. I also have heard that there has been alot of traffic.

The home right near it on Mesa Norte which is 5500 is not on the MLS yet as the lender is still pricing it. It will most likely fetch between 1.7-2M. Still a reduction compared to the 2.2+M it sold for.

***********

meandale – I don’t know who buys a home and leaves it like it is, but again, most flippers do not expose 300k cash unless it belongs to someone else..Back to the age old argument…if you can get someone to loan ya the money without recourse why in the world would you not do that? So I don’t know who did it, but I would bet that it was not a flipper.

Also the home on Mesa Norte that went for 2.2M and change is an REO. He only had 200k into it. From what I have found out about the owner he was definitely not a flipper but that home is very close by to Mesa Norte and it has not even hit the MLS yet and has had substantial activity on it.

*********

Mr Wrong you have pretty keen insights. I guess my point is that I do not ever claim to understand any behavior of any buyer at all except that they are all different. As you pointed out many are indeed driven by emotion and I would venture to guess more then the 50% number. However as many who post here simply cannot even begin to fathom how people would ever buy in a market like this, many who do buy cannot even begin to fathom ever renting a home. That cost is not an issue for them regardless of the fact that they are not independently wealthy. Am I saying either party is right or wrong? Well not really but for me personally I tend to fall on the side of people here simply because I am not as wealthy as I want to be. Yet I think you touched on an important point that this site is based on hard numbers more and psychology less. There is nothing wrong with that at all except expectation levels of market movement are not adjusted because logic does not account for that. Logic dictates that there should NOT BE 25,000 homes sold if everyone looked at this as only a financial issue. BTW 25K is a piss poor year right?

There is no right or wrong here at all. Yet, I think ….well like you said Mr Wrong, you need patience to wait it out… and in some cases the price levels people think may occur for some homes may indeed not occur.

Please don’t confuse this with an endorsement to buy now or anything like that.

SD Realtor

[mrwrong]

SDR, interesting comments on the misunderstandings of buyer behaviors. People on this site are too rational imho. Too much analysis based on hard numbers not nearly enough on human psychology. To understand the market dynamics you need to realize the decision to buy a house for most families are at least 50% driven by emotions. This is why housing can get really overvalued and stay overvalued for a long time. The flip side of course is when the tide finally turns, it can overshoot on the downside as well, again driven more by emotions than the fundamentals. However, unlike other investments and assets, home is highly personal. Most people buy it as a place to live rather than as a speculation. People won’t sell unless they absolutely have to. This is why housing cycle tends to drag on for years. You need to be really patient in order to wait it out.

Mr. Wrong

[mrwrong]

SDR, interesting comments on the misunderstandings of buyer behaviors. People on this site are too rational imho. Too much analysis based on hard numbers not nearly enough on human psychology. To understand the market dynamics you need to realize the decision to buy a house for most families are at least 50% driven by emotions. This is why housing can get really overvalued and stay overvalued for a long time. The flip side of course is when the tide finally turns, it can overshoot on the downside as well, again driven more by emotions than the fundamentals. However, unlike other investments and assets, home is highly personal. Most people buy it as a place to live rather than as a speculation. People won’t sell unless they absolutely have to. This is why housing cycle tends to drag on for years. You need to be really patient in order to wait it out.

Mr. Wrong

[mrwrong]

SDR, interesting comments on the misunderstandings of buyer behaviors. People on this site are too rational imho. Too much analysis based on hard numbers not nearly enough on human psychology. To understand the market dynamics you need to realize the decision to buy a house for most families are at least 50% driven by emotions. This is why housing can get really overvalued and stay overvalued for a long time. The flip side of course is when the tide finally turns, it can overshoot on the downside as well, again driven more by emotions than the fundamentals. However, unlike other investments and assets, home is highly personal. Most people buy it as a place to live rather than as a speculation. People won’t sell unless they absolutely have to. This is why housing cycle tends to drag on for years. You need to be really patient in order to wait it out.

Mr. Wrong

[mrwrong]

SDR, interesting comments on the misunderstandings of buyer behaviors. People on this site are too rational imho. Too much analysis based on hard numbers not nearly enough on human psychology. To understand the market dynamics you need to realize the decision to buy a house for most families are at least 50% driven by emotions. This is why housing can get really overvalued and stay overvalued for a long time. The flip side of course is when the tide finally turns, it can overshoot on the downside as well, again driven more by emotions than the fundamentals. However, unlike other investments and assets, home is highly personal. Most people buy it as a place to live rather than as a speculation. People won’t sell unless they absolutely have to. This is why housing cycle tends to drag on for years. You need to be really patient in order to wait it out.

Mr. Wrong

[SD Realtor]

BSR it is hard to say. I have said it before and will say it once more, that is, I believe there is a fundamental misunderstanding about buyer behavior on this site. I cannot argue about the fundamental message from many on this site about how much money can be saved by waiting to buy. No argument at all. Yet there were still 25,000 homes sold this year! That does not include FSBO’s and perhaps other new home sales right? So what drives all these people? Surely many of them know the market is down and moving downward… so what drove them?

It is not all about the money right? I know many people who bought this year. Many of them are quite successful, intelligent, and understand the market dynamics and direction. The factors that drove them to buying obviously outweighed the depreciation factor.

Don’t get me wrong, I am not advocating a strong buyers market or anything like that…

*******

Sorry for the detour… getting back to your question…who knows what the heck happened with Stella. There is another REO nearby on Mesa Norte that is not on the MLS yet and it went REO awhile ago. I posted about this home last spring because the owners tried to avoid foreclosure by transferring slices of title to entities they would start up. It was quite interesting. Eventually they were chased down and lost the home.

As for Stella yeah he closed escrow in 7/05 and put it on the market by 8/06. Was it pure speculation? Perhaps. Hard to say man… Most speculators don’t throw down 300k of thier own money though… so for this case my read would be doubtful but that is just a guess.

SD Realtor

[SD Realtor]

BSR it is hard to say. I have said it before and will say it once more, that is, I believe there is a fundamental misunderstanding about buyer behavior on this site. I cannot argue about the fundamental message from many on this site about how much money can be saved by waiting to buy. No argument at all. Yet there were still 25,000 homes sold this year! That does not include FSBO’s and perhaps other new home sales right? So what drives all these people? Surely many of them know the market is down and moving downward… so what drove them?

It is not all about the money right? I know many people who bought this year. Many of them are quite successful, intelligent, and understand the market dynamics and direction. The factors that drove them to buying obviously outweighed the depreciation factor.

Don’t get me wrong, I am not advocating a strong buyers market or anything like that…

*******

Sorry for the detour… getting back to your question…who knows what the heck happened with Stella. There is another REO nearby on Mesa Norte that is not on the MLS yet and it went REO awhile ago. I posted about this home last spring because the owners tried to avoid foreclosure by transferring slices of title to entities they would start up. It was quite interesting. Eventually they were chased down and lost the home.

As for Stella yeah he closed escrow in 7/05 and put it on the market by 8/06. Was it pure speculation? Perhaps. Hard to say man… Most speculators don’t throw down 300k of thier own money though… so for this case my read would be doubtful but that is just a guess.

SD Realtor

[SD Realtor]

BSR it is hard to say. I have said it before and will say it once more, that is, I believe there is a fundamental misunderstanding about buyer behavior on this site. I cannot argue about the fundamental message from many on this site about how much money can be saved by waiting to buy. No argument at all. Yet there were still 25,000 homes sold this year! That does not include FSBO’s and perhaps other new home sales right? So what drives all these people? Surely many of them know the market is down and moving downward… so what drove them?

It is not all about the money right? I know many people who bought this year. Many of them are quite successful, intelligent, and understand the market dynamics and direction. The factors that drove them to buying obviously outweighed the depreciation factor.

Don’t get me wrong, I am not advocating a strong buyers market or anything like that…

*******

Sorry for the detour… getting back to your question…who knows what the heck happened with Stella. There is another REO nearby on Mesa Norte that is not on the MLS yet and it went REO awhile ago. I posted about this home last spring because the owners tried to avoid foreclosure by transferring slices of title to entities they would start up. It was quite interesting. Eventually they were chased down and lost the home.

As for Stella yeah he closed escrow in 7/05 and put it on the market by 8/06. Was it pure speculation? Perhaps. Hard to say man… Most speculators don’t throw down 300k of thier own money though… so for this case my read would be doubtful but that is just a guess.

SD Realtor

[SD Realtor]

BSR it is hard to say. I have said it before and will say it once more, that is, I believe there is a fundamental misunderstanding about buyer behavior on this site. I cannot argue about the fundamental message from many on this site about how much money can be saved by waiting to buy. No argument at all. Yet there were still 25,000 homes sold this year! That does not include FSBO’s and perhaps other new home sales right? So what drives all these people? Surely many of them know the market is down and moving downward… so what drove them?

It is not all about the money right? I know many people who bought this year. Many of them are quite successful, intelligent, and understand the market dynamics and direction. The factors that drove them to buying obviously outweighed the depreciation factor.

Don’t get me wrong, I am not advocating a strong buyers market or anything like that…

*******

Sorry for the detour… getting back to your question…who knows what the heck happened with Stella. There is another REO nearby on Mesa Norte that is not on the MLS yet and it went REO awhile ago. I posted about this home last spring because the owners tried to avoid foreclosure by transferring slices of title to entities they would start up. It was quite interesting. Eventually they were chased down and lost the home.

As for Stella yeah he closed escrow in 7/05 and put it on the market by 8/06. Was it pure speculation? Perhaps. Hard to say man… Most speculators don’t throw down 300k of thier own money though… so for this case my read would be doubtful but that is just a guess.

SD Realtor

[Coronita]

SDR,

What could be the reason the buyer bought in 7/05 and wanted to sell in 8/06? At 6%, transaction costs would be about $100K. Was this a case of pure speculation or something else? The reason I am asking this is, I see many transactions like this – buying and then trying to sell in 12 -18 months. Surely, they didn't plan on living there just for a year.

 

Actually, this sort of thing happened TWICE on my street, with both buyers buying in 2006.

The first buyer overbid in a multiple offer situation (in 2006 !) for a home and paid close to $1.15 million for a home, spent another $100k in remodeling..Then 3 months later, they turn around and sells it at a loss for $1.1 million. At least it has an ocean view (sort of) compared to….

Couple number two spent $1.1 million on a home that has no ocean view in the same complex with the same sqft. Was sold by the "antique" wood floor, etc,etc. Spent also $100k in upgrades…3 months later, it's back on the market listed for $1.05-1.15 million.

 

I'm finding out lots of people make their biggest financial decisions when it couldn't be possibly any worse time to do it.

Couple #1 was having marriage problems and thought buying a home and living together would help. The stress of a new home purchase and all the hoops they had to jump through to remodel didn't help. The marriage ended in a divorce 3 months later, and they had to sell the home at a loss.

Couple #2 again overpaid on the home, probably a FTB. I haven't talked to this neighbor to figure out what happened, they're a quiet asian couple that keep to themselves…But my hunch is a FTB that overstretched and underestimated the total cost of ownership. 1 months after they buy, both couples show up in brand new Bimmers, and start a $100k makeover in the home. Anyway, it's 3 months since they moved in, and they put it back on the market. It's definitely not a flip attempt, as their asking price (with a ridiculous $100k spread) won't cover their total cost of the intial purchase plus all the remodeling they've been doing. Never see husband and wife going out together, always separate. My guess would be possibly the home was purchased with the hope to add some stability to a family too. But that's just a guess.

Why do so many couples make their biggest financial decisions when their personal life are at distress? When my wife and I bought our place, we felt such a big purchase was enough stress by itself. Dealing with issues here and there, fixing up the place and making it the way we wanted without blowing budgets was enough for us who normally don't fight to get on each other's nerves… I can't imagine how two people not on good standing would be able to do it.

[img_assist|nid=5962|title=selfportrait|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=100|height=80]

—– Sour grapes for everyone!

 

 

[bsrsharma]

Couple #1 was having marriage problems and thought buying a home and living together would help.

I had this hunch based on a couple of empirical observations. Interesting to see another data point. I think some wives in difficult marriages grasp at homebuying (or having a baby) as a cementing factor. Looks like it usually fails (and if anything, contributes to accelerating the fracture). On the other hand, I have also observed some good marriages fall apart after buying an unaffordable home and the resulting financial distress from it.

I think the correlation between housing bubble and its impact on marriages would make a fine subject for a few Ph. Ds in Sociology!

[bsrsharma]

Couple #1 was having marriage problems and thought buying a home and living together would help.

I had this hunch based on a couple of empirical observations. Interesting to see another data point. I think some wives in difficult marriages grasp at homebuying (or having a baby) as a cementing factor. Looks like it usually fails (and if anything, contributes to accelerating the fracture). On the other hand, I have also observed some good marriages fall apart after buying an unaffordable home and the resulting financial distress from it.

I think the correlation between housing bubble and its impact on marriages would make a fine subject for a few Ph. Ds in Sociology!

[bsrsharma]

Couple #1 was having marriage problems and thought buying a home and living together would help.

I had this hunch based on a couple of empirical observations. Interesting to see another data point. I think some wives in difficult marriages grasp at homebuying (or having a baby) as a cementing factor. Looks like it usually fails (and if anything, contributes to accelerating the fracture). On the other hand, I have also observed some good marriages fall apart after buying an unaffordable home and the resulting financial distress from it.

I think the correlation between housing bubble and its impact on marriages would make a fine subject for a few Ph. Ds in Sociology!

[bsrsharma]

Couple #1 was having marriage problems and thought buying a home and living together would help.

I had this hunch based on a couple of empirical observations. Interesting to see another data point. I think some wives in difficult marriages grasp at homebuying (or having a baby) as a cementing factor. Looks like it usually fails (and if anything, contributes to accelerating the fracture). On the other hand, I have also observed some good marriages fall apart after buying an unaffordable home and the resulting financial distress from it.

I think the correlation between housing bubble and its impact on marriages would make a fine subject for a few Ph. Ds in Sociology!

[bsrsharma]

Couple #1 was having marriage problems and thought buying a home and living together would help.

I had this hunch based on a couple of empirical observations. Interesting to see another data point. I think some wives in difficult marriages grasp at homebuying (or having a baby) as a cementing factor. Looks like it usually fails (and if anything, contributes to accelerating the fracture). On the other hand, I have also observed some good marriages fall apart after buying an unaffordable home and the resulting financial distress from it.

I think the correlation between housing bubble and its impact on marriages would make a fine subject for a few Ph. Ds in Sociology!

[Coronita]

SDR,

What could be the reason the buyer bought in 7/05 and wanted to sell in 8/06? At 6%, transaction costs would be about $100K. Was this a case of pure speculation or something else? The reason I am asking this is, I see many transactions like this – buying and then trying to sell in 12 -18 months. Surely, they didn't plan on living there just for a year.

 

Actually, this sort of thing happened TWICE on my street, with both buyers buying in 2006.

The first buyer overbid in a multiple offer situation (in 2006 !) for a home and paid close to $1.15 million for a home, spent another $100k in remodeling..Then 3 months later, they turn around and sells it at a loss for $1.1 million. At least it has an ocean view (sort of) compared to….

Couple number two spent $1.1 million on a home that has no ocean view in the same complex with the same sqft. Was sold by the "antique" wood floor, etc,etc. Spent also $100k in upgrades…3 months later, it's back on the market listed for $1.05-1.15 million.

 

I'm finding out lots of people make their biggest financial decisions when it couldn't be possibly any worse time to do it.

Couple #1 was having marriage problems and thought buying a home and living together would help. The stress of a new home purchase and all the hoops they had to jump through to remodel didn't help. The marriage ended in a divorce 3 months later, and they had to sell the home at a loss.

Couple #2 again overpaid on the home, probably a FTB. I haven't talked to this neighbor to figure out what happened, they're a quiet asian couple that keep to themselves…But my hunch is a FTB that overstretched and underestimated the total cost of ownership. 1 months after they buy, both couples show up in brand new Bimmers, and start a $100k makeover in the home. Anyway, it's 3 months since they moved in, and they put it back on the market. It's definitely not a flip attempt, as their asking price (with a ridiculous $100k spread) won't cover their total cost of the intial purchase plus all the remodeling they've been doing. Never see husband and wife going out together, always separate. My guess would be possibly the home was purchased with the hope to add some stability to a family too. But that's just a guess.

Why do so many couples make their biggest financial decisions when their personal life are at distress? When my wife and I bought our place, we felt such a big purchase was enough stress by itself. Dealing with issues here and there, fixing up the place and making it the way we wanted without blowing budgets was enough for us who normally don't fight to get on each other's nerves… I can't imagine how two people not on good standing would be able to do it.

[img_assist|nid=5962|title=selfportrait|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=100|height=80]

—– Sour grapes for everyone!

 

 

[Coronita]

SDR,

What could be the reason the buyer bought in 7/05 and wanted to sell in 8/06? At 6%, transaction costs would be about $100K. Was this a case of pure speculation or something else? The reason I am asking this is, I see many transactions like this – buying and then trying to sell in 12 -18 months. Surely, they didn't plan on living there just for a year.

 

Actually, this sort of thing happened TWICE on my street, with both buyers buying in 2006.

The first buyer overbid in a multiple offer situation (in 2006 !) for a home and paid close to $1.15 million for a home, spent another $100k in remodeling..Then 3 months later, they turn around and sells it at a loss for $1.1 million. At least it has an ocean view (sort of) compared to….

Couple number two spent $1.1 million on a home that has no ocean view in the same complex with the same sqft. Was sold by the "antique" wood floor, etc,etc. Spent also $100k in upgrades…3 months later, it's back on the market listed for $1.05-1.15 million.

 

I'm finding out lots of people make their biggest financial decisions when it couldn't be possibly any worse time to do it.

Couple #1 was having marriage problems and thought buying a home and living together would help. The stress of a new home purchase and all the hoops they had to jump through to remodel didn't help. The marriage ended in a divorce 3 months later, and they had to sell the home at a loss.

Couple #2 again overpaid on the home, probably a FTB. I haven't talked to this neighbor to figure out what happened, they're a quiet asian couple that keep to themselves…But my hunch is a FTB that overstretched and underestimated the total cost of ownership. 1 months after they buy, both couples show up in brand new Bimmers, and start a $100k makeover in the home. Anyway, it's 3 months since they moved in, and they put it back on the market. It's definitely not a flip attempt, as their asking price (with a ridiculous $100k spread) won't cover their total cost of the intial purchase plus all the remodeling they've been doing. Never see husband and wife going out together, always separate. My guess would be possibly the home was purchased with the hope to add some stability to a family too. But that's just a guess.

Why do so many couples make their biggest financial decisions when their personal life are at distress? When my wife and I bought our place, we felt such a big purchase was enough stress by itself. Dealing with issues here and there, fixing up the place and making it the way we wanted without blowing budgets was enough for us who normally don't fight to get on each other's nerves… I can't imagine how two people not on good standing would be able to do it.

[img_assist|nid=5962|title=selfportrait|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=100|height=80]

—– Sour grapes for everyone!

 

 

[Coronita]

SDR,

What could be the reason the buyer bought in 7/05 and wanted to sell in 8/06? At 6%, transaction costs would be about $100K. Was this a case of pure speculation or something else? The reason I am asking this is, I see many transactions like this – buying and then trying to sell in 12 -18 months. Surely, they didn't plan on living there just for a year.

 

Actually, this sort of thing happened TWICE on my street, with both buyers buying in 2006.

The first buyer overbid in a multiple offer situation (in 2006 !) for a home and paid close to $1.15 million for a home, spent another $100k in remodeling..Then 3 months later, they turn around and sells it at a loss for $1.1 million. At least it has an ocean view (sort of) compared to….

Couple number two spent $1.1 million on a home that has no ocean view in the same complex with the same sqft. Was sold by the "antique" wood floor, etc,etc. Spent also $100k in upgrades…3 months later, it's back on the market listed for $1.05-1.15 million.

 

I'm finding out lots of people make their biggest financial decisions when it couldn't be possibly any worse time to do it.

Couple #1 was having marriage problems and thought buying a home and living together would help. The stress of a new home purchase and all the hoops they had to jump through to remodel didn't help. The marriage ended in a divorce 3 months later, and they had to sell the home at a loss.

Couple #2 again overpaid on the home, probably a FTB. I haven't talked to this neighbor to figure out what happened, they're a quiet asian couple that keep to themselves…But my hunch is a FTB that overstretched and underestimated the total cost of ownership. 1 months after they buy, both couples show up in brand new Bimmers, and start a $100k makeover in the home. Anyway, it's 3 months since they moved in, and they put it back on the market. It's definitely not a flip attempt, as their asking price (with a ridiculous $100k spread) won't cover their total cost of the intial purchase plus all the remodeling they've been doing. Never see husband and wife going out together, always separate. My guess would be possibly the home was purchased with the hope to add some stability to a family too. But that's just a guess.

Why do so many couples make their biggest financial decisions when their personal life are at distress? When my wife and I bought our place, we felt such a big purchase was enough stress by itself. Dealing with issues here and there, fixing up the place and making it the way we wanted without blowing budgets was enough for us who normally don't fight to get on each other's nerves… I can't imagine how two people not on good standing would be able to do it.

[img_assist|nid=5962|title=selfportrait|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=100|height=80]

—– Sour grapes for everyone!

 

 

[Coronita]

SDR,

What could be the reason the buyer bought in 7/05 and wanted to sell in 8/06? At 6%, transaction costs would be about $100K. Was this a case of pure speculation or something else? The reason I am asking this is, I see many transactions like this – buying and then trying to sell in 12 -18 months. Surely, they didn't plan on living there just for a year.

 

Actually, this sort of thing happened TWICE on my street, with both buyers buying in 2006.

The first buyer overbid in a multiple offer situation (in 2006 !) for a home and paid close to $1.15 million for a home, spent another $100k in remodeling..Then 3 months later, they turn around and sells it at a loss for $1.1 million. At least it has an ocean view (sort of) compared to….

Couple number two spent $1.1 million on a home that has no ocean view in the same complex with the same sqft. Was sold by the "antique" wood floor, etc,etc. Spent also $100k in upgrades…3 months later, it's back on the market listed for $1.05-1.15 million.

 

I'm finding out lots of people make their biggest financial decisions when it couldn't be possibly any worse time to do it.

Couple #1 was having marriage problems and thought buying a home and living together would help. The stress of a new home purchase and all the hoops they had to jump through to remodel didn't help. The marriage ended in a divorce 3 months later, and they had to sell the home at a loss.

Couple #2 again overpaid on the home, probably a FTB. I haven't talked to this neighbor to figure out what happened, they're a quiet asian couple that keep to themselves…But my hunch is a FTB that overstretched and underestimated the total cost of ownership. 1 months after they buy, both couples show up in brand new Bimmers, and start a $100k makeover in the home. Anyway, it's 3 months since they moved in, and they put it back on the market. It's definitely not a flip attempt, as their asking price (with a ridiculous $100k spread) won't cover their total cost of the intial purchase plus all the remodeling they've been doing. Never see husband and wife going out together, always separate. My guess would be possibly the home was purchased with the hope to add some stability to a family too. But that's just a guess.

Why do so many couples make their biggest financial decisions when their personal life are at distress? When my wife and I bought our place, we felt such a big purchase was enough stress by itself. Dealing with issues here and there, fixing up the place and making it the way we wanted without blowing budgets was enough for us who normally don't fight to get on each other's nerves… I can't imagine how two people not on good standing would be able to do it.

[img_assist|nid=5962|title=selfportrait|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=100|height=80]

—– Sour grapes for everyone!

 

 

[bsrsharma]

SDR,

What could be the reason the buyer bought in 7/05 and wanted to sell in 8/06? At 6%, transaction costs would be about $100K. Was this a case of pure speculation or something else? The reason I am asking this is, I see many transactions like this – buying and then trying to sell in 12 -18 months. Surely, they didn’t plan on living there just for a year.

[bsrsharma]

SDR,

What could be the reason the buyer bought in 7/05 and wanted to sell in 8/06? At 6%, transaction costs would be about $100K. Was this a case of pure speculation or something else? The reason I am asking this is, I see many transactions like this – buying and then trying to sell in 12 -18 months. Surely, they didn’t plan on living there just for a year.

[bsrsharma]

SDR,

What could be the reason the buyer bought in 7/05 and wanted to sell in 8/06? At 6%, transaction costs would be about $100K. Was this a case of pure speculation or something else? The reason I am asking this is, I see many transactions like this – buying and then trying to sell in 12 -18 months. Surely, they didn’t plan on living there just for a year.

[bsrsharma]

SDR,

What could be the reason the buyer bought in 7/05 and wanted to sell in 8/06? At 6%, transaction costs would be about $100K. Was this a case of pure speculation or something else? The reason I am asking this is, I see many transactions like this – buying and then trying to sell in 12 -18 months. Surely, they didn’t plan on living there just for a year.

[SD Realtor]

You guys will love the listing history on this one. Original purchase in 7/05. First mtg for 1.424, second for 300k. So the homeowner did lose 300k of his own loot. The house has been on the MLS since August of 2006. Realist (which is the tax roll service used by Sandicor) is slow to get updates and has the home still owned by the homeowner and not the bank. However the NOT filed was for an auction date of 11/07 so I bet they had an offer on a short sale, it crashed and burned and the auction was postponed but now happened or will happen tomorrow especially since the listing says it is bank owned.

Anyways no this is not mainstream CV however it is very nice to see this 30% cut from the 2005 sales price. The home will go quick at this price. Not even close to an acre of usable ground as there is a slope that is in the lot. As you said zk it is more desireable in this part of CV and this will help bring down the comps there.

SD Realtor

[SD Realtor]

You guys will love the listing history on this one. Original purchase in 7/05. First mtg for 1.424, second for 300k. So the homeowner did lose 300k of his own loot. The house has been on the MLS since August of 2006. Realist (which is the tax roll service used by Sandicor) is slow to get updates and has the home still owned by the homeowner and not the bank. However the NOT filed was for an auction date of 11/07 so I bet they had an offer on a short sale, it crashed and burned and the auction was postponed but now happened or will happen tomorrow especially since the listing says it is bank owned.

Anyways no this is not mainstream CV however it is very nice to see this 30% cut from the 2005 sales price. The home will go quick at this price. Not even close to an acre of usable ground as there is a slope that is in the lot. As you said zk it is more desireable in this part of CV and this will help bring down the comps there.

SD Realtor

[SD Realtor]

You guys will love the listing history on this one. Original purchase in 7/05. First mtg for 1.424, second for 300k. So the homeowner did lose 300k of his own loot. The house has been on the MLS since August of 2006. Realist (which is the tax roll service used by Sandicor) is slow to get updates and has the home still owned by the homeowner and not the bank. However the NOT filed was for an auction date of 11/07 so I bet they had an offer on a short sale, it crashed and burned and the auction was postponed but now happened or will happen tomorrow especially since the listing says it is bank owned.

Anyways no this is not mainstream CV however it is very nice to see this 30% cut from the 2005 sales price. The home will go quick at this price. Not even close to an acre of usable ground as there is a slope that is in the lot. As you said zk it is more desireable in this part of CV and this will help bring down the comps there.

SD Realtor

[SD Realtor]

You guys will love the listing history on this one. Original purchase in 7/05. First mtg for 1.424, second for 300k. So the homeowner did lose 300k of his own loot. The house has been on the MLS since August of 2006. Realist (which is the tax roll service used by Sandicor) is slow to get updates and has the home still owned by the homeowner and not the bank. However the NOT filed was for an auction date of 11/07 so I bet they had an offer on a short sale, it crashed and burned and the auction was postponed but now happened or will happen tomorrow especially since the listing says it is bank owned.

Anyways no this is not mainstream CV however it is very nice to see this 30% cut from the 2005 sales price. The home will go quick at this price. Not even close to an acre of usable ground as there is a slope that is in the lot. As you said zk it is more desireable in this part of CV and this will help bring down the comps there.

SD Realtor

[zk]

You’re right, Mr. Wrong, it doesn’t have an acre of useable land. It doesn’t even have an especially big yard, as it turns out.

But as far as it being mainstream CV, while I’d agree that it’s not mainstream CV, I’d say that that’s because it’s more desireable than mainstream CV.

In any case, I still think it’ll end up being a lower comp than most recent ones.

[zk]

You’re right, Mr. Wrong, it doesn’t have an acre of useable land. It doesn’t even have an especially big yard, as it turns out.

But as far as it being mainstream CV, while I’d agree that it’s not mainstream CV, I’d say that that’s because it’s more desireable than mainstream CV.

In any case, I still think it’ll end up being a lower comp than most recent ones.

[zk]

You’re right, Mr. Wrong, it doesn’t have an acre of useable land. It doesn’t even have an especially big yard, as it turns out.

But as far as it being mainstream CV, while I’d agree that it’s not mainstream CV, I’d say that that’s because it’s more desireable than mainstream CV.

In any case, I still think it’ll end up being a lower comp than most recent ones.

[zk]

You’re right, Mr. Wrong, it doesn’t have an acre of useable land. It doesn’t even have an especially big yard, as it turns out.

But as far as it being mainstream CV, while I’d agree that it’s not mainstream CV, I’d say that that’s because it’s more desireable than mainstream CV.

In any case, I still think it’ll end up being a lower comp than most recent ones.

[mrwrong]

I wouldn’t read too much into this one listing. Judging from its location on the map, this is definitely not “mainstream” CV and from the picture, it does not look like it has over one acre of usable land.

Mr. Wrong

[mrwrong]

I wouldn’t read too much into this one listing. Judging from its location on the map, this is definitely not “mainstream” CV and from the picture, it does not look like it has over one acre of usable land.

Mr. Wrong

[mrwrong]

I wouldn’t read too much into this one listing. Judging from its location on the map, this is definitely not “mainstream” CV and from the picture, it does not look like it has over one acre of usable land.

Mr. Wrong

[mrwrong]

I wouldn’t read too much into this one listing. Judging from its location on the map, this is definitely not “mainstream” CV and from the picture, it does not look like it has over one acre of usable land.

Mr. Wrong

[zk]

I don’t know if it’s the beginning of a CV meltdown (I hope it is), but that’s a very low (relative to recent sales) price for a 4800 sf house on an acre of useable land. In fact, I’ll be quite surprised if that doesn’t sell this week for at least the asking price. As long as it doesn’t sell for a lot more than that it will be a definite comp killer.

[zk]

I don’t know if it’s the beginning of a CV meltdown (I hope it is), but that’s a very low (relative to recent sales) price for a 4800 sf house on an acre of useable land. In fact, I’ll be quite surprised if that doesn’t sell this week for at least the asking price. As long as it doesn’t sell for a lot more than that it will be a definite comp killer.

[zk]

I don’t know if it’s the beginning of a CV meltdown (I hope it is), but that’s a very low (relative to recent sales) price for a 4800 sf house on an acre of useable land. In fact, I’ll be quite surprised if that doesn’t sell this week for at least the asking price. As long as it doesn’t sell for a lot more than that it will be a definite comp killer.

[zk]

I don’t know if it’s the beginning of a CV meltdown (I hope it is), but that’s a very low (relative to recent sales) price for a 4800 sf house on an acre of useable land. In fact, I’ll be quite surprised if that doesn’t sell this week for at least the asking price. As long as it doesn’t sell for a lot more than that it will be a definite comp killer.

[Coronita]

Hmmm… I thought the people who'd bought $2 million homes at the peak weren't subject to price pressures or foreclosure risk. It's fascinating to watch this tide go out.

Why would anyone borrow more than $1 million if the interest on the excess over $1 million is not deductible? Is everyone in the wealthiest 1% earning more than 6% on their money net of taxes?

Patient renter in OC

Poor decision makers (my euphenism for financial idiots) come in all shapes,sizes, and financial backgrounds. I would say traditionally in the past people who bought $2million+ homes usually don't need to "borrow" to buy.

Once "nice" thing about all the relaxed lending that happened in recent times  is that you actually had people that stretched to pay $2million for homes. Seems like another case of trying to keep up with the Jones.

[img_assist|nid=5962|title=selfportrait|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=100|height=80]

—– Sour grapes for everyone!

 

 

 

 

[Coronita]

Hmmm… I thought the people who'd bought $2 million homes at the peak weren't subject to price pressures or foreclosure risk. It's fascinating to watch this tide go out.

Why would anyone borrow more than $1 million if the interest on the excess over $1 million is not deductible? Is everyone in the wealthiest 1% earning more than 6% on their money net of taxes?

Patient renter in OC

Poor decision makers (my euphenism for financial idiots) come in all shapes,sizes, and financial backgrounds. I would say traditionally in the past people who bought $2million+ homes usually don't need to "borrow" to buy.

Once "nice" thing about all the relaxed lending that happened in recent times  is that you actually had people that stretched to pay $2million for homes. Seems like another case of trying to keep up with the Jones.

[img_assist|nid=5962|title=selfportrait|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=100|height=80]

—– Sour grapes for everyone!

 

 

 

 

[Coronita]

Hmmm… I thought the people who'd bought $2 million homes at the peak weren't subject to price pressures or foreclosure risk. It's fascinating to watch this tide go out.

Why would anyone borrow more than $1 million if the interest on the excess over $1 million is not deductible? Is everyone in the wealthiest 1% earning more than 6% on their money net of taxes?

Patient renter in OC

Poor decision makers (my euphenism for financial idiots) come in all shapes,sizes, and financial backgrounds. I would say traditionally in the past people who bought $2million+ homes usually don't need to "borrow" to buy.

Once "nice" thing about all the relaxed lending that happened in recent times  is that you actually had people that stretched to pay $2million for homes. Seems like another case of trying to keep up with the Jones.

[img_assist|nid=5962|title=selfportrait|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=100|height=80]

—– Sour grapes for everyone!

 

 

 

 

[Coronita]

Hmmm… I thought the people who'd bought $2 million homes at the peak weren't subject to price pressures or foreclosure risk. It's fascinating to watch this tide go out.

Why would anyone borrow more than $1 million if the interest on the excess over $1 million is not deductible? Is everyone in the wealthiest 1% earning more than 6% on their money net of taxes?

Patient renter in OC

Poor decision makers (my euphenism for financial idiots) come in all shapes,sizes, and financial backgrounds. I would say traditionally in the past people who bought $2million+ homes usually don't need to "borrow" to buy.

Once "nice" thing about all the relaxed lending that happened in recent times  is that you actually had people that stretched to pay $2million for homes. Seems like another case of trying to keep up with the Jones.

[img_assist|nid=5962|title=selfportrait|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=100|height=80]

—– Sour grapes for everyone!

 

 

 

 

[Coronita]

Hmmm… I thought the people who'd bought $2 million homes at the peak weren't subject to price pressures or foreclosure risk. It's fascinating to watch this tide go out.

Why would anyone borrow more than $1 million if the interest on the excess over $1 million is not deductible? Is everyone in the wealthiest 1% earning more than 6% on their money net of taxes?

Patient renter in OC

Poor decision makers (my euphenism for financial idiots) come in all shapes,sizes, and financial backgrounds. I would say traditionally in the past people who bought $2million+ homes usually don't need to "borrow" to buy.

Once "nice" thing about all the relaxed lending that happened in recent times  is that you actually had people that stretched to pay $2million for homes. Seems like another case of trying to keep up with the Jones.

[img_assist|nid=5962|title=selfportrait|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=100|height=80]

—– Sour grapes for everyone!

 

 

 

 

[patientrenter]

Hmmm… I thought the people who’d bought $2 million homes at the peak weren’t subject to price pressures or foreclosure risk. It’s fascinating to watch this tide go out.

Why would anyone borrow more than $1 million if the interest on the excess over $1 million is not deductible? Is everyone in the wealthiest 1% earning more than 6% on their money net of taxes?

Patient renter in OC

[patientrenter]

Hmmm… I thought the people who’d bought $2 million homes at the peak weren’t subject to price pressures or foreclosure risk. It’s fascinating to watch this tide go out.

Why would anyone borrow more than $1 million if the interest on the excess over $1 million is not deductible? Is everyone in the wealthiest 1% earning more than 6% on their money net of taxes?

Patient renter in OC

[patientrenter]

Hmmm… I thought the people who’d bought $2 million homes at the peak weren’t subject to price pressures or foreclosure risk. It’s fascinating to watch this tide go out.

Why would anyone borrow more than $1 million if the interest on the excess over $1 million is not deductible? Is everyone in the wealthiest 1% earning more than 6% on their money net of taxes?

Patient renter in OC

[patientrenter]

Hmmm… I thought the people who’d bought $2 million homes at the peak weren’t subject to price pressures or foreclosure risk. It’s fascinating to watch this tide go out.

Why would anyone borrow more than $1 million if the interest on the excess over $1 million is not deductible? Is everyone in the wealthiest 1% earning more than 6% on their money net of taxes?

Patient renter in OC

[meadandale]

You got to love a 2 year old house with not a lick of landscaping on the entire property.

Can you say ‘flip’?

[SD Realtor]

Like I said, not many flippers come in with 300k cash.

I would be willing to bet this was not a flip.

SD Realtor

[meadandale]

@SD Realtor

Well then, who the heck buys a $1.5 million house and then leaves it with a dirt lot for 2 years? Maybe they should have held some of the downpayment money in reserve for landscaping?

There’s no way I’d buy a 2 year old house for far in excess of a million dollars when it has zero landscaping. You’re looking at at least $50k post purchase just to put in grass, shrubs and irrigation.

[meadandale]

@SD Realtor

Well then, who the heck buys a $1.5 million house and then leaves it with a dirt lot for 2 years? Maybe they should have held some of the downpayment money in reserve for landscaping?

There’s no way I’d buy a 2 year old house for far in excess of a million dollars when it has zero landscaping. You’re looking at at least $50k post purchase just to put in grass, shrubs and irrigation.

[meadandale]

@SD Realtor

Well then, who the heck buys a $1.5 million house and then leaves it with a dirt lot for 2 years? Maybe they should have held some of the downpayment money in reserve for landscaping?

There’s no way I’d buy a 2 year old house for far in excess of a million dollars when it has zero landscaping. You’re looking at at least $50k post purchase just to put in grass, shrubs and irrigation.

[meadandale]

@SD Realtor

Well then, who the heck buys a $1.5 million house and then leaves it with a dirt lot for 2 years? Maybe they should have held some of the downpayment money in reserve for landscaping?

There’s no way I’d buy a 2 year old house for far in excess of a million dollars when it has zero landscaping. You’re looking at at least $50k post purchase just to put in grass, shrubs and irrigation.

[meadandale]

@SD Realtor

Well then, who the heck buys a $1.5 million house and then leaves it with a dirt lot for 2 years? Maybe they should have held some of the downpayment money in reserve for landscaping?

There’s no way I’d buy a 2 year old house for far in excess of a million dollars when it has zero landscaping. You’re looking at at least $50k post purchase just to put in grass, shrubs and irrigation.

[SD Realtor]

Like I said, not many flippers come in with 300k cash.

I would be willing to bet this was not a flip.

SD Realtor

[SD Realtor]

Like I said, not many flippers come in with 300k cash.

I would be willing to bet this was not a flip.

SD Realtor

[SD Realtor]

Like I said, not many flippers come in with 300k cash.

I would be willing to bet this was not a flip.

SD Realtor

[SD Realtor]

Like I said, not many flippers come in with 300k cash.

I would be willing to bet this was not a flip.

SD Realtor

[meadandale]

You got to love a 2 year old house with not a lick of landscaping on the entire property.

Can you say ‘flip’?

[meadandale]

You got to love a 2 year old house with not a lick of landscaping on the entire property.

Can you say ‘flip’?

[meadandale]

You got to love a 2 year old house with not a lick of landscaping on the entire property.

Can you say ‘flip’?

[meadandale]

You got to love a 2 year old house with not a lick of landscaping on the entire property.

Can you say ‘flip’?

[masayako]

Cookie cutter tract house with small usable lot…. Even though it’s over >4000 sqfts, it’s still way overpriced.

I won’t look at it until it returns to price below $750s range.

[Coronita]

Cookie cutter tract house with small usable lot…. Even though it's over >4000 sqfts, it's still way overpriced.

I won't look at it until it returns to price below $750s range.

 

Cool, more supply for people that are looking 🙂 Just kidding.

 

[img_assist|nid=5962|title=selfportrait|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=100|height=80]

—– Sour grapes for everyone!

[Coronita]

Cookie cutter tract house with small usable lot…. Even though it's over >4000 sqfts, it's still way overpriced.

I won't look at it until it returns to price below $750s range.

 

Cool, more supply for people that are looking 🙂 Just kidding.

 

[img_assist|nid=5962|title=selfportrait|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=100|height=80]

—– Sour grapes for everyone!

[Coronita]

Cookie cutter tract house with small usable lot…. Even though it's over >4000 sqfts, it's still way overpriced.

I won't look at it until it returns to price below $750s range.

 

Cool, more supply for people that are looking 🙂 Just kidding.

 

[img_assist|nid=5962|title=selfportrait|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=100|height=80]

—– Sour grapes for everyone!

[Coronita]

Cookie cutter tract house with small usable lot…. Even though it's over >4000 sqfts, it's still way overpriced.

I won't look at it until it returns to price below $750s range.

 

Cool, more supply for people that are looking 🙂 Just kidding.

 

[img_assist|nid=5962|title=selfportrait|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=100|height=80]

—– Sour grapes for everyone!

[Coronita]

Cookie cutter tract house with small usable lot…. Even though it's over >4000 sqfts, it's still way overpriced.

I won't look at it until it returns to price below $750s range.

 

Cool, more supply for people that are looking 🙂 Just kidding.

 

[img_assist|nid=5962|title=selfportrait|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=100|height=80]

—– Sour grapes for everyone!

[mrwrong]

I won’t look at it until it returns to price below $750s range.

You want to start a bidding war now, masayako? 🙂 Barring any kind of disasters, natural or manmade, I doubt price will ever drop to that low. That kindof percentage decline is unlikely to happen in CV imho. Tract homes or not, I think CV has established itself as one of the best areas in San Diego over the years mainly due to its location and schools.

With that said, I do think prices in CV will eventually decline. However, the decline will be relatively small and perhaps with most of the decline happening towards the end of the cycle. So the real decision for people waiting to buy CV is: is this worth the wait?

Also keep in mind that price may not decline much in nominal terms due to inflation. Most people on this board think home prices in 1998 are reasonable. Prices in CV have probably doubled since then. If you also happen to believe 2012 will be the bottom and assuming prices stay flat until that time, then prices have only doubled in 14 years, which comes to an annualized appreciation of just under 5.1%, quite reasonable given the current inflation numbers, don’t you think?

Mr. Wrong

[mrwrong]

I won’t look at it until it returns to price below $750s range.

You want to start a bidding war now, masayako? 🙂 Barring any kind of disasters, natural or manmade, I doubt price will ever drop to that low. That kindof percentage decline is unlikely to happen in CV imho. Tract homes or not, I think CV has established itself as one of the best areas in San Diego over the years mainly due to its location and schools.

With that said, I do think prices in CV will eventually decline. However, the decline will be relatively small and perhaps with most of the decline happening towards the end of the cycle. So the real decision for people waiting to buy CV is: is this worth the wait?

Also keep in mind that price may not decline much in nominal terms due to inflation. Most people on this board think home prices in 1998 are reasonable. Prices in CV have probably doubled since then. If you also happen to believe 2012 will be the bottom and assuming prices stay flat until that time, then prices have only doubled in 14 years, which comes to an annualized appreciation of just under 5.1%, quite reasonable given the current inflation numbers, don’t you think?

Mr. Wrong

[mrwrong]

I won’t look at it until it returns to price below $750s range.

You want to start a bidding war now, masayako? 🙂 Barring any kind of disasters, natural or manmade, I doubt price will ever drop to that low. That kindof percentage decline is unlikely to happen in CV imho. Tract homes or not, I think CV has established itself as one of the best areas in San Diego over the years mainly due to its location and schools.

With that said, I do think prices in CV will eventually decline. However, the decline will be relatively small and perhaps with most of the decline happening towards the end of the cycle. So the real decision for people waiting to buy CV is: is this worth the wait?

Also keep in mind that price may not decline much in nominal terms due to inflation. Most people on this board think home prices in 1998 are reasonable. Prices in CV have probably doubled since then. If you also happen to believe 2012 will be the bottom and assuming prices stay flat until that time, then prices have only doubled in 14 years, which comes to an annualized appreciation of just under 5.1%, quite reasonable given the current inflation numbers, don’t you think?

Mr. Wrong

[mrwrong]

I won’t look at it until it returns to price below $750s range.

You want to start a bidding war now, masayako? 🙂 Barring any kind of disasters, natural or manmade, I doubt price will ever drop to that low. That kindof percentage decline is unlikely to happen in CV imho. Tract homes or not, I think CV has established itself as one of the best areas in San Diego over the years mainly due to its location and schools.

With that said, I do think prices in CV will eventually decline. However, the decline will be relatively small and perhaps with most of the decline happening towards the end of the cycle. So the real decision for people waiting to buy CV is: is this worth the wait?

Also keep in mind that price may not decline much in nominal terms due to inflation. Most people on this board think home prices in 1998 are reasonable. Prices in CV have probably doubled since then. If you also happen to believe 2012 will be the bottom and assuming prices stay flat until that time, then prices have only doubled in 14 years, which comes to an annualized appreciation of just under 5.1%, quite reasonable given the current inflation numbers, don’t you think?

Mr. Wrong

[mrwrong]

I won’t look at it until it returns to price below $750s range.

You want to start a bidding war now, masayako? 🙂 Barring any kind of disasters, natural or manmade, I doubt price will ever drop to that low. That kindof percentage decline is unlikely to happen in CV imho. Tract homes or not, I think CV has established itself as one of the best areas in San Diego over the years mainly due to its location and schools.

With that said, I do think prices in CV will eventually decline. However, the decline will be relatively small and perhaps with most of the decline happening towards the end of the cycle. So the real decision for people waiting to buy CV is: is this worth the wait?

Also keep in mind that price may not decline much in nominal terms due to inflation. Most people on this board think home prices in 1998 are reasonable. Prices in CV have probably doubled since then. If you also happen to believe 2012 will be the bottom and assuming prices stay flat until that time, then prices have only doubled in 14 years, which comes to an annualized appreciation of just under 5.1%, quite reasonable given the current inflation numbers, don’t you think?

Mr. Wrong

[masayako]

Cookie cutter tract house with small usable lot…. Even though it’s over >4000 sqfts, it’s still way overpriced.

I won’t look at it until it returns to price below $750s range.

[masayako]

Cookie cutter tract house with small usable lot…. Even though it’s over >4000 sqfts, it’s still way overpriced.

I won’t look at it until it returns to price below $750s range.

[masayako]

Cookie cutter tract house with small usable lot…. Even though it’s over >4000 sqfts, it’s still way overpriced.

I won’t look at it until it returns to price below $750s range.

[masayako]

Cookie cutter tract house with small usable lot…. Even though it’s over >4000 sqfts, it’s still way overpriced.

I won’t look at it until it returns to price below $750s range.

[DWCAP]

Mr. Wong,
I totally agree with you about buyer psycology. I have no idea why about half the people buying homes are right now except to say that they want it. We are not a society built on self denial. I think it would be really interesting if the relators released a survey about buyer reasons for buying. You know, Moving up, sizing down, better schools, etc. I really want to see how many really check the suposid savior box, foreign buyer with too much money. This may be true in NY, or Miami, Hell even La Jolla and Downtown will have some of these. But Muhammad and all his oil billions isnt looking into buying a 2/1 800sqft 20 year old condo in Santee.
I disagree with you about Carmel Valley. I think it will get hit, and hard. It wont be like the IE. BUT it will suffer, just not yet. I dont even think 2008. I am thinking 2011. Here is why. That is 6-12 months after all the PRIME option-arms start hitting their stride. The last recession was felt for about 3 years, (ala 2000-2003). For some reason, that feels about right to me. So call it 2008-2010. Incomes wont have been going up much, jobs will be stagnant, and interest rates really dont have much more that they can go down from today. All of a sudden people who really havnt been getting ahead will feel the pain of subprime today. It will be an all new “crisis” that no one could foresee. We arent going into a depression IMHO, that is stupid scare tatics used to sell news. But a 2-3 bear market to work off the excesses of the largest comodity binge in history seems quite normal.
I back that up with an factoid gleaned from a link on this page to the SF Chronicle (ill look to find it). A buyer of a $1000000 home needs an income about $200000/yr to support the monthy payment. With an interest only, it is only $95000/yr. That is a great income, but not enough to buy a million dollar morgage. The idea was buy now, get into a house in CV before you were priced out, and then refinance when your income went up. No inceased buying power (recessions happen) along with that kinda morgage no longer being available, and you have CV’s subprime. Is it gonna be as bad as the 2007 hit poor fokes took? Doubt it, there is alot more demand there, just not at those prices. But to say that we will inflate our way out of this mess ANYWHERE in SoCal reads to me like the forcasts of price appreciation in 2007 by the NAR. You cant just say it is different here.

[mrwrong]

Wow, I survived the night without being called a troll or a real estate agent (no offense to you, SDR). 🙂 Not that I would mind being called one. After all, this site is titled “Southern California Housing Bubble News and Analysis”. What else can you expect?

By the way, I appreciate all the comments so far. I guess I’ve finally found the right crowd to hang with.

DWCAP, I’m not sure we disagree much on CV. I did say that I believe CV prices will experience a relatively small decline towards the end of the cycle. If I have to guess, I would say it will be about 20% on average, not insignificant for million dollar homes.

raptorduck, your description on your home buying process is the best advise for a couple that I’ve ever read. It is no easy feat to strike that kind of balance though.

Mr. Wrong

[New_Renter]

MrWrong,
While I appreciate your opinion, and in fact did start this thread to get everyone’s thoughts on whether a 26% discount on a CV McMansion signified the start of a more serious downturn there, I personally disagree with your assessment of how things will play out in CV. First, you seem to imply (actually stated in an early post) that CV prices were flat and would likely remain flat until the end of the downturn. It’s quite clear from the (unemotional) data that prices aren’t flat in CV. Just compare November’s CV Median of $875K to the 2005 Nov. Median. It’s down about 10%. Aug/Sept/Oct medians also down compared to a year earlier. The Case Shiller index for the top 1/3 tier shows a 8.72% decline through October and will likely go over 10% in the November report. I could also point out many CV sales in this past year that sold at a loss to 2005 comps, with Caminito Stella being one of the most dramatic. Yes I know, it hasn’t sold yet and could go at a price higher than $1.499, but even if it ends up selling for $1.6 to $1.7, it is still a dramatic loss. Another example is a Belmont recently closing for $276/sq. ft. There are many others.

What I am trying to say is that it is wrong to give the impression that CV is flat and thus implying it hasn’t been affected much by the downturn. You also state that you think it will only decline by a small amount (your 20% isn’t small, btw) and only at the very end of the cycle. From what I see, CV is declining just like everywhere else, albeit at a slower rate because of it’s high desireability. Nevertheless, it is declining, and will more likely continue to decline consistently throughout this downturn rather than at the very end. It’s clear that CV is already down 8-10%, and if it continues through 2010-2012 (as SD Realtor and many others think) then I can easily see CV going down at least another 20-25% from here (30%-35% from peak to trough). On the other extreme, I agree with you and others that Masakayo is way off. I don’t think the 75% decline he implies is in the cards.

[pepsi]

Just some numbers for CV (signle family resell):

Medium price (2001 – 2006):

2001: $610K

2002: $670K

2003: $750K

2004: $969K

2005: $1.04M

2006: $1.028M

Medium Price for Nov, 2007:  $875K  (That is less than 5% annual appreciation from 2001 medium price)

[pepsi]

Just some numbers for CV (signle family resell):

Medium price (2001 – 2006):

2001: $610K

2002: $670K

2003: $750K

2004: $969K

2005: $1.04M

2006: $1.028M

Medium Price for Nov, 2007:  $875K  (That is less than 5% annual appreciation from 2001 medium price)

[pepsi]

Just some numbers for CV (signle family resell):

Medium price (2001 – 2006):

2001: $610K

2002: $670K

2003: $750K

2004: $969K

2005: $1.04M

2006: $1.028M

Medium Price for Nov, 2007:  $875K  (That is less than 5% annual appreciation from 2001 medium price)

[pepsi]

Just some numbers for CV (signle family resell):

Medium price (2001 – 2006):

2001: $610K

2002: $670K

2003: $750K

2004: $969K

2005: $1.04M

2006: $1.028M

Medium Price for Nov, 2007:  $875K  (That is less than 5% annual appreciation from 2001 medium price)

[pepsi]

Just some numbers for CV (signle family resell):

Medium price (2001 – 2006):

2001: $610K

2002: $670K

2003: $750K

2004: $969K

2005: $1.04M

2006: $1.028M

Medium Price for Nov, 2007:  $875K  (That is less than 5% annual appreciation from 2001 medium price)

[mrwrong]

New_Renter,

I don’t think we disagree much, but I do like to clarify a couple of things.

My flat price comment was in the context to show that a 14 year appreciation of 100% is not totally unreasonable when taking inflation into account. I actually stated twice that I expected CV prices to decline.

I also didn’t say the decline would be small, but *relatively* small. If San Diego county has declined 15% so far into the cycle and CV only declined less than 10%, then that is relatively small.

I have no idea how much CV prices will fall. The 20% was just a guess. The CV is a upper-middle class community (annual gross income at least 200K). People with that kindof income can support a million dollar house after 20% down, given the current interest rates. More importantly there seems to be more people that fit this profile than the houses available even in today’s market. Want proof? Just look at the interests on this 1.5 million REO house. As soon as people smell a deal, they jump on it. If this is happening a few years back when the market was still hot, I wouldn’t be surprised, but everybody in their right mind should know by now that there is a real estate bubble going on and prices have dropped. So you’ve got to ask yourself what is really motivating these people to buy today and perhaps adjust your expectations accordingly. Also ask yourself now that real estate has turned bearish, are people buying a house to flip or are they buying a place to live.

Mr. Wrong

[New_Renter]

Mr. Wrong,
Yes, it does sound like we are basically in agreement. Your comment about the Stella house is interesting. The number of bids is suprising, and at the same time it isn’t. $1.5M is an unheard of price over the last 4 years in that area, so the bank was smart to set the price at that level to get some action. Heck, I might have put in an offer if I liked the location better. The reason I’m surprised is because of the negatives associated with that property, which in my opinion are:

1. The 25mph 4-mile roundtrip drive down Del Mar Mesa Road multiple times per day would get real old, real fast. It’s a royal pain to go shopping or get to the schools.

2. The Paso Fino development in general seems like a kind of “end-of-bubble”, poorly thought out, and quickly erected for profit development. There’s not much character there. When you compare it to Bougainvilla (Davidson) next door, it doesn’t hold a candle.

3. Barrett seemed to hastily design and build a bit “on the cheap” compared to their other developments in the area. Paso Fino doesn’t hold a candle to Whitehorse in terms of quality. You can feel it the instant you walk into one these houses.

4. While it is over an acre property, the lot itself is small for the area. You could barely fit a nice pool. You would need to invest at least $150K-$200K in landscaping/pool/drainage/hardscape, etc. to bring it on par with other similar properties.

[mrwrong]

New_Renter,

Agree on all points. I wouldn’t touch it at $1.5M and I’m really surprised there are so much interests.

Mr. Wrong

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

Medium Price ? Pepsi ?

Submitted by pepsi on January 3, 2008 – 1:52pm.

Just some numbers for CV (signle family resell):

Medium price (2001 – 2006):

2001: $610K

2002: $670K

2003: $750K

2004: $969K

2005: $1.04M

2006: $1.028M

Medium Price for Nov, 2007: $875K (That is less than 5% annual appreciation from 2001 medium price)

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

Medium Price ? Pepsi ?

Submitted by pepsi on January 3, 2008 – 1:52pm.

Just some numbers for CV (signle family resell):

Medium price (2001 – 2006):

2001: $610K

2002: $670K

2003: $750K

2004: $969K

2005: $1.04M

2006: $1.028M

Medium Price for Nov, 2007: $875K (That is less than 5% annual appreciation from 2001 medium price)

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

Medium Price ? Pepsi ?

Submitted by pepsi on January 3, 2008 – 1:52pm.

Just some numbers for CV (signle family resell):

Medium price (2001 – 2006):

2001: $610K

2002: $670K

2003: $750K

2004: $969K

2005: $1.04M

2006: $1.028M

Medium Price for Nov, 2007: $875K (That is less than 5% annual appreciation from 2001 medium price)

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

Medium Price ? Pepsi ?

Submitted by pepsi on January 3, 2008 – 1:52pm.

Just some numbers for CV (signle family resell):

Medium price (2001 – 2006):

2001: $610K

2002: $670K

2003: $750K

2004: $969K

2005: $1.04M

2006: $1.028M

Medium Price for Nov, 2007: $875K (That is less than 5% annual appreciation from 2001 medium price)

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

Medium Price ? Pepsi ?

Submitted by pepsi on January 3, 2008 – 1:52pm.

Just some numbers for CV (signle family resell):

Medium price (2001 – 2006):

2001: $610K

2002: $670K

2003: $750K

2004: $969K

2005: $1.04M

2006: $1.028M

Medium Price for Nov, 2007: $875K (That is less than 5% annual appreciation from 2001 medium price)

[Ex-SD]

Housing prices may or may NOT follow the percentage of inflation, even in a healthy market. There are many factors that cause housing to go up when times are good and inflation is only one of them. I’ve read quite a few posts since I started reading this board where many a poster automatically figures in inflation when trying to determine where a house should presently be priced. I’m not saying that they’re absolutely wrong…..it’s just my opinion that they are. If “X” house was selling for $500k in 2001 and housing returns to 2001 levels, my opinion is that “X” house will most likely return to a price of $500k……NOT $500k plus the cost of inflation for the years between 2001-2008. Reality has no rules and regulations when it comes to housing bubbles bursting and it IS and will continue to BE a buyers market for a long time. There is just way too much inventory and it’s going to get a lot larger and there’s going to be a shortage of good, qualified buyers with down payments and the desire to buy all of these properties unless they’re severely discounted.

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

Housing prices may or may NOT follow the percentage of inflation, even in a healthy market. There are many factors that cause housing to go up when times are good and inflation is only one of them. I’ve read quite a few posts since I started reading this board where many a poster automatically figures in inflation when trying to determine where a house should presently be priced. I’m not saying that they’re absolutely wrong…..it’s just my opinion that they are. If “X” house was selling for $500k in 2001 and housing returns to 2001 levels, my opinion is that “X” house will most likely return to a price of $500k……NOT $500k plus the cost of inflation for the years between 2001-2008.

Over long periods of time inflation matters.
Indexing to inflation accounts for distortions in nominal dollar terms. Any economist worth his/her salt accounts for inflation. (Schiff does, Shiller does).

One could use prices, relative to incomes (as Rich does) to come up with perhaps a more relevant metric.

If one ignores inflation one might make the mistake of expecting prices to revert to where they were in 1965 when a SFR in Point Loma could be had for about $35K. After all the weather is not that much better now, is it ?

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

Housing prices may or may NOT follow the percentage of inflation, even in a healthy market. There are many factors that cause housing to go up when times are good and inflation is only one of them. I’ve read quite a few posts since I started reading this board where many a poster automatically figures in inflation when trying to determine where a house should presently be priced. I’m not saying that they’re absolutely wrong…..it’s just my opinion that they are. If “X” house was selling for $500k in 2001 and housing returns to 2001 levels, my opinion is that “X” house will most likely return to a price of $500k……NOT $500k plus the cost of inflation for the years between 2001-2008.

Over long periods of time inflation matters.
Indexing to inflation accounts for distortions in nominal dollar terms. Any economist worth his/her salt accounts for inflation. (Schiff does, Shiller does).

One could use prices, relative to incomes (as Rich does) to come up with perhaps a more relevant metric.

If one ignores inflation one might make the mistake of expecting prices to revert to where they were in 1965 when a SFR in Point Loma could be had for about $35K. After all the weather is not that much better now, is it ?

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

Housing prices may or may NOT follow the percentage of inflation, even in a healthy market. There are many factors that cause housing to go up when times are good and inflation is only one of them. I’ve read quite a few posts since I started reading this board where many a poster automatically figures in inflation when trying to determine where a house should presently be priced. I’m not saying that they’re absolutely wrong…..it’s just my opinion that they are. If “X” house was selling for $500k in 2001 and housing returns to 2001 levels, my opinion is that “X” house will most likely return to a price of $500k……NOT $500k plus the cost of inflation for the years between 2001-2008.

Over long periods of time inflation matters.
Indexing to inflation accounts for distortions in nominal dollar terms. Any economist worth his/her salt accounts for inflation. (Schiff does, Shiller does).

One could use prices, relative to incomes (as Rich does) to come up with perhaps a more relevant metric.

If one ignores inflation one might make the mistake of expecting prices to revert to where they were in 1965 when a SFR in Point Loma could be had for about $35K. After all the weather is not that much better now, is it ?

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

Housing prices may or may NOT follow the percentage of inflation, even in a healthy market. There are many factors that cause housing to go up when times are good and inflation is only one of them. I’ve read quite a few posts since I started reading this board where many a poster automatically figures in inflation when trying to determine where a house should presently be priced. I’m not saying that they’re absolutely wrong…..it’s just my opinion that they are. If “X” house was selling for $500k in 2001 and housing returns to 2001 levels, my opinion is that “X” house will most likely return to a price of $500k……NOT $500k plus the cost of inflation for the years between 2001-2008.

Over long periods of time inflation matters.
Indexing to inflation accounts for distortions in nominal dollar terms. Any economist worth his/her salt accounts for inflation. (Schiff does, Shiller does).

One could use prices, relative to incomes (as Rich does) to come up with perhaps a more relevant metric.

If one ignores inflation one might make the mistake of expecting prices to revert to where they were in 1965 when a SFR in Point Loma could be had for about $35K. After all the weather is not that much better now, is it ?

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

Housing prices may or may NOT follow the percentage of inflation, even in a healthy market. There are many factors that cause housing to go up when times are good and inflation is only one of them. I’ve read quite a few posts since I started reading this board where many a poster automatically figures in inflation when trying to determine where a house should presently be priced. I’m not saying that they’re absolutely wrong…..it’s just my opinion that they are. If “X” house was selling for $500k in 2001 and housing returns to 2001 levels, my opinion is that “X” house will most likely return to a price of $500k……NOT $500k plus the cost of inflation for the years between 2001-2008.

Over long periods of time inflation matters.
Indexing to inflation accounts for distortions in nominal dollar terms. Any economist worth his/her salt accounts for inflation. (Schiff does, Shiller does).

One could use prices, relative to incomes (as Rich does) to come up with perhaps a more relevant metric.

If one ignores inflation one might make the mistake of expecting prices to revert to where they were in 1965 when a SFR in Point Loma could be had for about $35K. After all the weather is not that much better now, is it ?

[Coronita]

Housing prices may or may NOT follow the percentage of inflation, even in a healthy market. There are many factors that cause housing to go up when times are good and inflation is only one of them. I've read quite a few posts since I started reading this board where many a poster automatically figures in inflation when trying to determine where a house should presently be priced. I'm not saying that they're absolutely wrong…..it's just my opinion that they are. If "X" house was selling for $500k in 2001 and housing returns to 2001 levels, my opinion is that "X" house will most likely return to a price of $500k……NOT $500k plus the cost of inflation for the years between 2001-2008. Reality has no rules and regulations when it comes to housing bubbles bursting and it IS and will continue to BE a buyers market for a long time. There is just way too much inventory and it's going to get a lot larger and there's going to be a shortage of good, qualified buyers with down payments and the desire to buy all of these properties unless they're severely discounted.

 

I'm also curious if this time around, the dollar's continued tumble will mean relative to other currencies. During the last RE bubble burst, did we see the dollar tank in similar percentages to what we're currently seeing now. It's looking pretty ugly.  

[img_assist|nid=5962|title=selfportrait|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=100|height=80]

—– Sour grapes for everyone!

[drunkle]

well, assuming inflation is a measure of the currency relative to other currencies, that would suggest that tradeable goods would reflect inflation.

wage inflation is then a reflection of increasing prices in traded goods; autos, for instance.

since the majority of americans work in services, they wouldn’t gain wage inflation since their services are locally traded.

and since homes are not traded across borders, they too are limited to local inflation plus whatever amount of foreign investment or immigration accounts for. i would think that that amount of influx would be significantly less than the the absolute amount of currency inflation (deflation).

[Ex-SD]

My main point was….when prices fall because a bubble bursts, they won’t conform to any type of restraints such as “X plus inflation=Y”. They will fall to what the marketplace is able and willing to pay.

[Ex-SD]

My main point was….when prices fall because a bubble bursts, they won’t conform to any type of restraints such as “X plus inflation=Y”. They will fall to what the marketplace is able and willing to pay.

[Ex-SD]

My main point was….when prices fall because a bubble bursts, they won’t conform to any type of restraints such as “X plus inflation=Y”. They will fall to what the marketplace is able and willing to pay.

[Ex-SD]

My main point was….when prices fall because a bubble bursts, they won’t conform to any type of restraints such as “X plus inflation=Y”. They will fall to what the marketplace is able and willing to pay.

[Ex-SD]

My main point was….when prices fall because a bubble bursts, they won’t conform to any type of restraints such as “X plus inflation=Y”. They will fall to what the marketplace is able and willing to pay.

[drunkle]

well, assuming inflation is a measure of the currency relative to other currencies, that would suggest that tradeable goods would reflect inflation.

wage inflation is then a reflection of increasing prices in traded goods; autos, for instance.

since the majority of americans work in services, they wouldn’t gain wage inflation since their services are locally traded.

and since homes are not traded across borders, they too are limited to local inflation plus whatever amount of foreign investment or immigration accounts for. i would think that that amount of influx would be significantly less than the the absolute amount of currency inflation (deflation).

[drunkle]

well, assuming inflation is a measure of the currency relative to other currencies, that would suggest that tradeable goods would reflect inflation.

wage inflation is then a reflection of increasing prices in traded goods; autos, for instance.

since the majority of americans work in services, they wouldn’t gain wage inflation since their services are locally traded.

and since homes are not traded across borders, they too are limited to local inflation plus whatever amount of foreign investment or immigration accounts for. i would think that that amount of influx would be significantly less than the the absolute amount of currency inflation (deflation).

[drunkle]

well, assuming inflation is a measure of the currency relative to other currencies, that would suggest that tradeable goods would reflect inflation.

wage inflation is then a reflection of increasing prices in traded goods; autos, for instance.

since the majority of americans work in services, they wouldn’t gain wage inflation since their services are locally traded.

and since homes are not traded across borders, they too are limited to local inflation plus whatever amount of foreign investment or immigration accounts for. i would think that that amount of influx would be significantly less than the the absolute amount of currency inflation (deflation).

[drunkle]

well, assuming inflation is a measure of the currency relative to other currencies, that would suggest that tradeable goods would reflect inflation.

wage inflation is then a reflection of increasing prices in traded goods; autos, for instance.

since the majority of americans work in services, they wouldn’t gain wage inflation since their services are locally traded.

and since homes are not traded across borders, they too are limited to local inflation plus whatever amount of foreign investment or immigration accounts for. i would think that that amount of influx would be significantly less than the the absolute amount of currency inflation (deflation).

[Coronita]

Housing prices may or may NOT follow the percentage of inflation, even in a healthy market. There are many factors that cause housing to go up when times are good and inflation is only one of them. I've read quite a few posts since I started reading this board where many a poster automatically figures in inflation when trying to determine where a house should presently be priced. I'm not saying that they're absolutely wrong…..it's just my opinion that they are. If "X" house was selling for $500k in 2001 and housing returns to 2001 levels, my opinion is that "X" house will most likely return to a price of $500k……NOT $500k plus the cost of inflation for the years between 2001-2008. Reality has no rules and regulations when it comes to housing bubbles bursting and it IS and will continue to BE a buyers market for a long time. There is just way too much inventory and it's going to get a lot larger and there's going to be a shortage of good, qualified buyers with down payments and the desire to buy all of these properties unless they're severely discounted.

 

I'm also curious if this time around, the dollar's continued tumble will mean relative to other currencies. During the last RE bubble burst, did we see the dollar tank in similar percentages to what we're currently seeing now. It's looking pretty ugly.  

[img_assist|nid=5962|title=selfportrait|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=100|height=80]

—– Sour grapes for everyone!

[Coronita]

Housing prices may or may NOT follow the percentage of inflation, even in a healthy market. There are many factors that cause housing to go up when times are good and inflation is only one of them. I've read quite a few posts since I started reading this board where many a poster automatically figures in inflation when trying to determine where a house should presently be priced. I'm not saying that they're absolutely wrong…..it's just my opinion that they are. If "X" house was selling for $500k in 2001 and housing returns to 2001 levels, my opinion is that "X" house will most likely return to a price of $500k……NOT $500k plus the cost of inflation for the years between 2001-2008. Reality has no rules and regulations when it comes to housing bubbles bursting and it IS and will continue to BE a buyers market for a long time. There is just way too much inventory and it's going to get a lot larger and there's going to be a shortage of good, qualified buyers with down payments and the desire to buy all of these properties unless they're severely discounted.

 

I'm also curious if this time around, the dollar's continued tumble will mean relative to other currencies. During the last RE bubble burst, did we see the dollar tank in similar percentages to what we're currently seeing now. It's looking pretty ugly.  

[img_assist|nid=5962|title=selfportrait|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=100|height=80]

—– Sour grapes for everyone!

[Coronita]

Housing prices may or may NOT follow the percentage of inflation, even in a healthy market. There are many factors that cause housing to go up when times are good and inflation is only one of them. I've read quite a few posts since I started reading this board where many a poster automatically figures in inflation when trying to determine where a house should presently be priced. I'm not saying that they're absolutely wrong…..it's just my opinion that they are. If "X" house was selling for $500k in 2001 and housing returns to 2001 levels, my opinion is that "X" house will most likely return to a price of $500k……NOT $500k plus the cost of inflation for the years between 2001-2008. Reality has no rules and regulations when it comes to housing bubbles bursting and it IS and will continue to BE a buyers market for a long time. There is just way too much inventory and it's going to get a lot larger and there's going to be a shortage of good, qualified buyers with down payments and the desire to buy all of these properties unless they're severely discounted.

 

I'm also curious if this time around, the dollar's continued tumble will mean relative to other currencies. During the last RE bubble burst, did we see the dollar tank in similar percentages to what we're currently seeing now. It's looking pretty ugly.  

[img_assist|nid=5962|title=selfportrait|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=100|height=80]

—– Sour grapes for everyone!

[Coronita]

Housing prices may or may NOT follow the percentage of inflation, even in a healthy market. There are many factors that cause housing to go up when times are good and inflation is only one of them. I've read quite a few posts since I started reading this board where many a poster automatically figures in inflation when trying to determine where a house should presently be priced. I'm not saying that they're absolutely wrong…..it's just my opinion that they are. If "X" house was selling for $500k in 2001 and housing returns to 2001 levels, my opinion is that "X" house will most likely return to a price of $500k……NOT $500k plus the cost of inflation for the years between 2001-2008. Reality has no rules and regulations when it comes to housing bubbles bursting and it IS and will continue to BE a buyers market for a long time. There is just way too much inventory and it's going to get a lot larger and there's going to be a shortage of good, qualified buyers with down payments and the desire to buy all of these properties unless they're severely discounted.

 

I'm also curious if this time around, the dollar's continued tumble will mean relative to other currencies. During the last RE bubble burst, did we see the dollar tank in similar percentages to what we're currently seeing now. It's looking pretty ugly.  

[img_assist|nid=5962|title=selfportrait|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=100|height=80]

—– Sour grapes for everyone!

[Ex-SD]

Housing prices may or may NOT follow the percentage of inflation, even in a healthy market. There are many factors that cause housing to go up when times are good and inflation is only one of them. I’ve read quite a few posts since I started reading this board where many a poster automatically figures in inflation when trying to determine where a house should presently be priced. I’m not saying that they’re absolutely wrong…..it’s just my opinion that they are. If “X” house was selling for $500k in 2001 and housing returns to 2001 levels, my opinion is that “X” house will most likely return to a price of $500k……NOT $500k plus the cost of inflation for the years between 2001-2008. Reality has no rules and regulations when it comes to housing bubbles bursting and it IS and will continue to BE a buyers market for a long time. There is just way too much inventory and it’s going to get a lot larger and there’s going to be a shortage of good, qualified buyers with down payments and the desire to buy all of these properties unless they’re severely discounted.

[Ex-SD]

Housing prices may or may NOT follow the percentage of inflation, even in a healthy market. There are many factors that cause housing to go up when times are good and inflation is only one of them. I’ve read quite a few posts since I started reading this board where many a poster automatically figures in inflation when trying to determine where a house should presently be priced. I’m not saying that they’re absolutely wrong…..it’s just my opinion that they are. If “X” house was selling for $500k in 2001 and housing returns to 2001 levels, my opinion is that “X” house will most likely return to a price of $500k……NOT $500k plus the cost of inflation for the years between 2001-2008. Reality has no rules and regulations when it comes to housing bubbles bursting and it IS and will continue to BE a buyers market for a long time. There is just way too much inventory and it’s going to get a lot larger and there’s going to be a shortage of good, qualified buyers with down payments and the desire to buy all of these properties unless they’re severely discounted.

[Ex-SD]

Housing prices may or may NOT follow the percentage of inflation, even in a healthy market. There are many factors that cause housing to go up when times are good and inflation is only one of them. I’ve read quite a few posts since I started reading this board where many a poster automatically figures in inflation when trying to determine where a house should presently be priced. I’m not saying that they’re absolutely wrong…..it’s just my opinion that they are. If “X” house was selling for $500k in 2001 and housing returns to 2001 levels, my opinion is that “X” house will most likely return to a price of $500k……NOT $500k plus the cost of inflation for the years between 2001-2008. Reality has no rules and regulations when it comes to housing bubbles bursting and it IS and will continue to BE a buyers market for a long time. There is just way too much inventory and it’s going to get a lot larger and there’s going to be a shortage of good, qualified buyers with down payments and the desire to buy all of these properties unless they’re severely discounted.

[Ex-SD]

Housing prices may or may NOT follow the percentage of inflation, even in a healthy market. There are many factors that cause housing to go up when times are good and inflation is only one of them. I’ve read quite a few posts since I started reading this board where many a poster automatically figures in inflation when trying to determine where a house should presently be priced. I’m not saying that they’re absolutely wrong…..it’s just my opinion that they are. If “X” house was selling for $500k in 2001 and housing returns to 2001 levels, my opinion is that “X” house will most likely return to a price of $500k……NOT $500k plus the cost of inflation for the years between 2001-2008. Reality has no rules and regulations when it comes to housing bubbles bursting and it IS and will continue to BE a buyers market for a long time. There is just way too much inventory and it’s going to get a lot larger and there’s going to be a shortage of good, qualified buyers with down payments and the desire to buy all of these properties unless they’re severely discounted.

[mrwrong]

New_Renter,

Agree on all points. I wouldn’t touch it at $1.5M and I’m really surprised there are so much interests.

Mr. Wrong

[mrwrong]

New_Renter,

Agree on all points. I wouldn’t touch it at $1.5M and I’m really surprised there are so much interests.

Mr. Wrong

[mrwrong]

New_Renter,

Agree on all points. I wouldn’t touch it at $1.5M and I’m really surprised there are so much interests.

Mr. Wrong

[mrwrong]

New_Renter,

Agree on all points. I wouldn’t touch it at $1.5M and I’m really surprised there are so much interests.

Mr. Wrong

[New_Renter]

Mr. Wrong,
Yes, it does sound like we are basically in agreement. Your comment about the Stella house is interesting. The number of bids is suprising, and at the same time it isn’t. $1.5M is an unheard of price over the last 4 years in that area, so the bank was smart to set the price at that level to get some action. Heck, I might have put in an offer if I liked the location better. The reason I’m surprised is because of the negatives associated with that property, which in my opinion are:

1. The 25mph 4-mile roundtrip drive down Del Mar Mesa Road multiple times per day would get real old, real fast. It’s a royal pain to go shopping or get to the schools.

2. The Paso Fino development in general seems like a kind of “end-of-bubble”, poorly thought out, and quickly erected for profit development. There’s not much character there. When you compare it to Bougainvilla (Davidson) next door, it doesn’t hold a candle.

3. Barrett seemed to hastily design and build a bit “on the cheap” compared to their other developments in the area. Paso Fino doesn’t hold a candle to Whitehorse in terms of quality. You can feel it the instant you walk into one these houses.

4. While it is over an acre property, the lot itself is small for the area. You could barely fit a nice pool. You would need to invest at least $150K-$200K in landscaping/pool/drainage/hardscape, etc. to bring it on par with other similar properties.

[New_Renter]

Mr. Wrong,
Yes, it does sound like we are basically in agreement. Your comment about the Stella house is interesting. The number of bids is suprising, and at the same time it isn’t. $1.5M is an unheard of price over the last 4 years in that area, so the bank was smart to set the price at that level to get some action. Heck, I might have put in an offer if I liked the location better. The reason I’m surprised is because of the negatives associated with that property, which in my opinion are:

1. The 25mph 4-mile roundtrip drive down Del Mar Mesa Road multiple times per day would get real old, real fast. It’s a royal pain to go shopping or get to the schools.

2. The Paso Fino development in general seems like a kind of “end-of-bubble”, poorly thought out, and quickly erected for profit development. There’s not much character there. When you compare it to Bougainvilla (Davidson) next door, it doesn’t hold a candle.

3. Barrett seemed to hastily design and build a bit “on the cheap” compared to their other developments in the area. Paso Fino doesn’t hold a candle to Whitehorse in terms of quality. You can feel it the instant you walk into one these houses.

4. While it is over an acre property, the lot itself is small for the area. You could barely fit a nice pool. You would need to invest at least $150K-$200K in landscaping/pool/drainage/hardscape, etc. to bring it on par with other similar properties.

[New_Renter]

Mr. Wrong,
Yes, it does sound like we are basically in agreement. Your comment about the Stella house is interesting. The number of bids is suprising, and at the same time it isn’t. $1.5M is an unheard of price over the last 4 years in that area, so the bank was smart to set the price at that level to get some action. Heck, I might have put in an offer if I liked the location better. The reason I’m surprised is because of the negatives associated with that property, which in my opinion are:

1. The 25mph 4-mile roundtrip drive down Del Mar Mesa Road multiple times per day would get real old, real fast. It’s a royal pain to go shopping or get to the schools.

2. The Paso Fino development in general seems like a kind of “end-of-bubble”, poorly thought out, and quickly erected for profit development. There’s not much character there. When you compare it to Bougainvilla (Davidson) next door, it doesn’t hold a candle.

3. Barrett seemed to hastily design and build a bit “on the cheap” compared to their other developments in the area. Paso Fino doesn’t hold a candle to Whitehorse in terms of quality. You can feel it the instant you walk into one these houses.

4. While it is over an acre property, the lot itself is small for the area. You could barely fit a nice pool. You would need to invest at least $150K-$200K in landscaping/pool/drainage/hardscape, etc. to bring it on par with other similar properties.

[New_Renter]

Mr. Wrong,
Yes, it does sound like we are basically in agreement. Your comment about the Stella house is interesting. The number of bids is suprising, and at the same time it isn’t. $1.5M is an unheard of price over the last 4 years in that area, so the bank was smart to set the price at that level to get some action. Heck, I might have put in an offer if I liked the location better. The reason I’m surprised is because of the negatives associated with that property, which in my opinion are:

1. The 25mph 4-mile roundtrip drive down Del Mar Mesa Road multiple times per day would get real old, real fast. It’s a royal pain to go shopping or get to the schools.

2. The Paso Fino development in general seems like a kind of “end-of-bubble”, poorly thought out, and quickly erected for profit development. There’s not much character there. When you compare it to Bougainvilla (Davidson) next door, it doesn’t hold a candle.

3. Barrett seemed to hastily design and build a bit “on the cheap” compared to their other developments in the area. Paso Fino doesn’t hold a candle to Whitehorse in terms of quality. You can feel it the instant you walk into one these houses.

4. While it is over an acre property, the lot itself is small for the area. You could barely fit a nice pool. You would need to invest at least $150K-$200K in landscaping/pool/drainage/hardscape, etc. to bring it on par with other similar properties.

[mrwrong]

New_Renter,

I don’t think we disagree much, but I do like to clarify a couple of things.

My flat price comment was in the context to show that a 14 year appreciation of 100% is not totally unreasonable when taking inflation into account. I actually stated twice that I expected CV prices to decline.

I also didn’t say the decline would be small, but *relatively* small. If San Diego county has declined 15% so far into the cycle and CV only declined less than 10%, then that is relatively small.

I have no idea how much CV prices will fall. The 20% was just a guess. The CV is a upper-middle class community (annual gross income at least 200K). People with that kindof income can support a million dollar house after 20% down, given the current interest rates. More importantly there seems to be more people that fit this profile than the houses available even in today’s market. Want proof? Just look at the interests on this 1.5 million REO house. As soon as people smell a deal, they jump on it. If this is happening a few years back when the market was still hot, I wouldn’t be surprised, but everybody in their right mind should know by now that there is a real estate bubble going on and prices have dropped. So you’ve got to ask yourself what is really motivating these people to buy today and perhaps adjust your expectations accordingly. Also ask yourself now that real estate has turned bearish, are people buying a house to flip or are they buying a place to live.

Mr. Wrong

[mrwrong]

New_Renter,

I don’t think we disagree much, but I do like to clarify a couple of things.

My flat price comment was in the context to show that a 14 year appreciation of 100% is not totally unreasonable when taking inflation into account. I actually stated twice that I expected CV prices to decline.

I also didn’t say the decline would be small, but *relatively* small. If San Diego county has declined 15% so far into the cycle and CV only declined less than 10%, then that is relatively small.

I have no idea how much CV prices will fall. The 20% was just a guess. The CV is a upper-middle class community (annual gross income at least 200K). People with that kindof income can support a million dollar house after 20% down, given the current interest rates. More importantly there seems to be more people that fit this profile than the houses available even in today’s market. Want proof? Just look at the interests on this 1.5 million REO house. As soon as people smell a deal, they jump on it. If this is happening a few years back when the market was still hot, I wouldn’t be surprised, but everybody in their right mind should know by now that there is a real estate bubble going on and prices have dropped. So you’ve got to ask yourself what is really motivating these people to buy today and perhaps adjust your expectations accordingly. Also ask yourself now that real estate has turned bearish, are people buying a house to flip or are they buying a place to live.

Mr. Wrong

[mrwrong]

New_Renter,

I don’t think we disagree much, but I do like to clarify a couple of things.

My flat price comment was in the context to show that a 14 year appreciation of 100% is not totally unreasonable when taking inflation into account. I actually stated twice that I expected CV prices to decline.

I also didn’t say the decline would be small, but *relatively* small. If San Diego county has declined 15% so far into the cycle and CV only declined less than 10%, then that is relatively small.

I have no idea how much CV prices will fall. The 20% was just a guess. The CV is a upper-middle class community (annual gross income at least 200K). People with that kindof income can support a million dollar house after 20% down, given the current interest rates. More importantly there seems to be more people that fit this profile than the houses available even in today’s market. Want proof? Just look at the interests on this 1.5 million REO house. As soon as people smell a deal, they jump on it. If this is happening a few years back when the market was still hot, I wouldn’t be surprised, but everybody in their right mind should know by now that there is a real estate bubble going on and prices have dropped. So you’ve got to ask yourself what is really motivating these people to buy today and perhaps adjust your expectations accordingly. Also ask yourself now that real estate has turned bearish, are people buying a house to flip or are they buying a place to live.

Mr. Wrong

[mrwrong]

New_Renter,

I don’t think we disagree much, but I do like to clarify a couple of things.

My flat price comment was in the context to show that a 14 year appreciation of 100% is not totally unreasonable when taking inflation into account. I actually stated twice that I expected CV prices to decline.

I also didn’t say the decline would be small, but *relatively* small. If San Diego county has declined 15% so far into the cycle and CV only declined less than 10%, then that is relatively small.

I have no idea how much CV prices will fall. The 20% was just a guess. The CV is a upper-middle class community (annual gross income at least 200K). People with that kindof income can support a million dollar house after 20% down, given the current interest rates. More importantly there seems to be more people that fit this profile than the houses available even in today’s market. Want proof? Just look at the interests on this 1.5 million REO house. As soon as people smell a deal, they jump on it. If this is happening a few years back when the market was still hot, I wouldn’t be surprised, but everybody in their right mind should know by now that there is a real estate bubble going on and prices have dropped. So you’ve got to ask yourself what is really motivating these people to buy today and perhaps adjust your expectations accordingly. Also ask yourself now that real estate has turned bearish, are people buying a house to flip or are they buying a place to live.

Mr. Wrong

[SD Realtor]

As usual good post New Renter

SD Realtor

[SD Realtor]

As usual good post New Renter

SD Realtor

[SD Realtor]

As usual good post New Renter

SD Realtor

[SD Realtor]

As usual good post New Renter

SD Realtor

[SD Realtor]

As usual good post New Renter

SD Realtor

[New_Renter]

MrWrong,
While I appreciate your opinion, and in fact did start this thread to get everyone’s thoughts on whether a 26% discount on a CV McMansion signified the start of a more serious downturn there, I personally disagree with your assessment of how things will play out in CV. First, you seem to imply (actually stated in an early post) that CV prices were flat and would likely remain flat until the end of the downturn. It’s quite clear from the (unemotional) data that prices aren’t flat in CV. Just compare November’s CV Median of $875K to the 2005 Nov. Median. It’s down about 10%. Aug/Sept/Oct medians also down compared to a year earlier. The Case Shiller index for the top 1/3 tier shows a 8.72% decline through October and will likely go over 10% in the November report. I could also point out many CV sales in this past year that sold at a loss to 2005 comps, with Caminito Stella being one of the most dramatic. Yes I know, it hasn’t sold yet and could go at a price higher than $1.499, but even if it ends up selling for $1.6 to $1.7, it is still a dramatic loss. Another example is a Belmont recently closing for $276/sq. ft. There are many others.

What I am trying to say is that it is wrong to give the impression that CV is flat and thus implying it hasn’t been affected much by the downturn. You also state that you think it will only decline by a small amount (your 20% isn’t small, btw) and only at the very end of the cycle. From what I see, CV is declining just like everywhere else, albeit at a slower rate because of it’s high desireability. Nevertheless, it is declining, and will more likely continue to decline consistently throughout this downturn rather than at the very end. It’s clear that CV is already down 8-10%, and if it continues through 2010-2012 (as SD Realtor and many others think) then I can easily see CV going down at least another 20-25% from here (30%-35% from peak to trough). On the other extreme, I agree with you and others that Masakayo is way off. I don’t think the 75% decline he implies is in the cards.

[New_Renter]

MrWrong,
While I appreciate your opinion, and in fact did start this thread to get everyone’s thoughts on whether a 26% discount on a CV McMansion signified the start of a more serious downturn there, I personally disagree with your assessment of how things will play out in CV. First, you seem to imply (actually stated in an early post) that CV prices were flat and would likely remain flat until the end of the downturn. It’s quite clear from the (unemotional) data that prices aren’t flat in CV. Just compare November’s CV Median of $875K to the 2005 Nov. Median. It’s down about 10%. Aug/Sept/Oct medians also down compared to a year earlier. The Case Shiller index for the top 1/3 tier shows a 8.72% decline through October and will likely go over 10% in the November report. I could also point out many CV sales in this past year that sold at a loss to 2005 comps, with Caminito Stella being one of the most dramatic. Yes I know, it hasn’t sold yet and could go at a price higher than $1.499, but even if it ends up selling for $1.6 to $1.7, it is still a dramatic loss. Another example is a Belmont recently closing for $276/sq. ft. There are many others.

What I am trying to say is that it is wrong to give the impression that CV is flat and thus implying it hasn’t been affected much by the downturn. You also state that you think it will only decline by a small amount (your 20% isn’t small, btw) and only at the very end of the cycle. From what I see, CV is declining just like everywhere else, albeit at a slower rate because of it’s high desireability. Nevertheless, it is declining, and will more likely continue to decline consistently throughout this downturn rather than at the very end. It’s clear that CV is already down 8-10%, and if it continues through 2010-2012 (as SD Realtor and many others think) then I can easily see CV going down at least another 20-25% from here (30%-35% from peak to trough). On the other extreme, I agree with you and others that Masakayo is way off. I don’t think the 75% decline he implies is in the cards.

[New_Renter]

MrWrong,
While I appreciate your opinion, and in fact did start this thread to get everyone’s thoughts on whether a 26% discount on a CV McMansion signified the start of a more serious downturn there, I personally disagree with your assessment of how things will play out in CV. First, you seem to imply (actually stated in an early post) that CV prices were flat and would likely remain flat until the end of the downturn. It’s quite clear from the (unemotional) data that prices aren’t flat in CV. Just compare November’s CV Median of $875K to the 2005 Nov. Median. It’s down about 10%. Aug/Sept/Oct medians also down compared to a year earlier. The Case Shiller index for the top 1/3 tier shows a 8.72% decline through October and will likely go over 10% in the November report. I could also point out many CV sales in this past year that sold at a loss to 2005 comps, with Caminito Stella being one of the most dramatic. Yes I know, it hasn’t sold yet and could go at a price higher than $1.499, but even if it ends up selling for $1.6 to $1.7, it is still a dramatic loss. Another example is a Belmont recently closing for $276/sq. ft. There are many others.

What I am trying to say is that it is wrong to give the impression that CV is flat and thus implying it hasn’t been affected much by the downturn. You also state that you think it will only decline by a small amount (your 20% isn’t small, btw) and only at the very end of the cycle. From what I see, CV is declining just like everywhere else, albeit at a slower rate because of it’s high desireability. Nevertheless, it is declining, and will more likely continue to decline consistently throughout this downturn rather than at the very end. It’s clear that CV is already down 8-10%, and if it continues through 2010-2012 (as SD Realtor and many others think) then I can easily see CV going down at least another 20-25% from here (30%-35% from peak to trough). On the other extreme, I agree with you and others that Masakayo is way off. I don’t think the 75% decline he implies is in the cards.

[New_Renter]

MrWrong,
While I appreciate your opinion, and in fact did start this thread to get everyone’s thoughts on whether a 26% discount on a CV McMansion signified the start of a more serious downturn there, I personally disagree with your assessment of how things will play out in CV. First, you seem to imply (actually stated in an early post) that CV prices were flat and would likely remain flat until the end of the downturn. It’s quite clear from the (unemotional) data that prices aren’t flat in CV. Just compare November’s CV Median of $875K to the 2005 Nov. Median. It’s down about 10%. Aug/Sept/Oct medians also down compared to a year earlier. The Case Shiller index for the top 1/3 tier shows a 8.72% decline through October and will likely go over 10% in the November report. I could also point out many CV sales in this past year that sold at a loss to 2005 comps, with Caminito Stella being one of the most dramatic. Yes I know, it hasn’t sold yet and could go at a price higher than $1.499, but even if it ends up selling for $1.6 to $1.7, it is still a dramatic loss. Another example is a Belmont recently closing for $276/sq. ft. There are many others.

What I am trying to say is that it is wrong to give the impression that CV is flat and thus implying it hasn’t been affected much by the downturn. You also state that you think it will only decline by a small amount (your 20% isn’t small, btw) and only at the very end of the cycle. From what I see, CV is declining just like everywhere else, albeit at a slower rate because of it’s high desireability. Nevertheless, it is declining, and will more likely continue to decline consistently throughout this downturn rather than at the very end. It’s clear that CV is already down 8-10%, and if it continues through 2010-2012 (as SD Realtor and many others think) then I can easily see CV going down at least another 20-25% from here (30%-35% from peak to trough). On the other extreme, I agree with you and others that Masakayo is way off. I don’t think the 75% decline he implies is in the cards.

[mrwrong]

Wow, I survived the night without being called a troll or a real estate agent (no offense to you, SDR). 🙂 Not that I would mind being called one. After all, this site is titled “Southern California Housing Bubble News and Analysis”. What else can you expect?

By the way, I appreciate all the comments so far. I guess I’ve finally found the right crowd to hang with.

DWCAP, I’m not sure we disagree much on CV. I did say that I believe CV prices will experience a relatively small decline towards the end of the cycle. If I have to guess, I would say it will be about 20% on average, not insignificant for million dollar homes.

raptorduck, your description on your home buying process is the best advise for a couple that I’ve ever read. It is no easy feat to strike that kind of balance though.

Mr. Wrong

[mrwrong]

Wow, I survived the night without being called a troll or a real estate agent (no offense to you, SDR). 🙂 Not that I would mind being called one. After all, this site is titled “Southern California Housing Bubble News and Analysis”. What else can you expect?

By the way, I appreciate all the comments so far. I guess I’ve finally found the right crowd to hang with.

DWCAP, I’m not sure we disagree much on CV. I did say that I believe CV prices will experience a relatively small decline towards the end of the cycle. If I have to guess, I would say it will be about 20% on average, not insignificant for million dollar homes.

raptorduck, your description on your home buying process is the best advise for a couple that I’ve ever read. It is no easy feat to strike that kind of balance though.

Mr. Wrong

[mrwrong]

Wow, I survived the night without being called a troll or a real estate agent (no offense to you, SDR). 🙂 Not that I would mind being called one. After all, this site is titled “Southern California Housing Bubble News and Analysis”. What else can you expect?

By the way, I appreciate all the comments so far. I guess I’ve finally found the right crowd to hang with.

DWCAP, I’m not sure we disagree much on CV. I did say that I believe CV prices will experience a relatively small decline towards the end of the cycle. If I have to guess, I would say it will be about 20% on average, not insignificant for million dollar homes.

raptorduck, your description on your home buying process is the best advise for a couple that I’ve ever read. It is no easy feat to strike that kind of balance though.

Mr. Wrong

[mrwrong]

Wow, I survived the night without being called a troll or a real estate agent (no offense to you, SDR). 🙂 Not that I would mind being called one. After all, this site is titled “Southern California Housing Bubble News and Analysis”. What else can you expect?

By the way, I appreciate all the comments so far. I guess I’ve finally found the right crowd to hang with.

DWCAP, I’m not sure we disagree much on CV. I did say that I believe CV prices will experience a relatively small decline towards the end of the cycle. If I have to guess, I would say it will be about 20% on average, not insignificant for million dollar homes.

raptorduck, your description on your home buying process is the best advise for a couple that I’ve ever read. It is no easy feat to strike that kind of balance though.

Mr. Wrong

[DWCAP]

Mr. Wong,
I totally agree with you about buyer psycology. I have no idea why about half the people buying homes are right now except to say that they want it. We are not a society built on self denial. I think it would be really interesting if the relators released a survey about buyer reasons for buying. You know, Moving up, sizing down, better schools, etc. I really want to see how many really check the suposid savior box, foreign buyer with too much money. This may be true in NY, or Miami, Hell even La Jolla and Downtown will have some of these. But Muhammad and all his oil billions isnt looking into buying a 2/1 800sqft 20 year old condo in Santee.
I disagree with you about Carmel Valley. I think it will get hit, and hard. It wont be like the IE. BUT it will suffer, just not yet. I dont even think 2008. I am thinking 2011. Here is why. That is 6-12 months after all the PRIME option-arms start hitting their stride. The last recession was felt for about 3 years, (ala 2000-2003). For some reason, that feels about right to me. So call it 2008-2010. Incomes wont have been going up much, jobs will be stagnant, and interest rates really dont have much more that they can go down from today. All of a sudden people who really havnt been getting ahead will feel the pain of subprime today. It will be an all new “crisis” that no one could foresee. We arent going into a depression IMHO, that is stupid scare tatics used to sell news. But a 2-3 bear market to work off the excesses of the largest comodity binge in history seems quite normal.
I back that up with an factoid gleaned from a link on this page to the SF Chronicle (ill look to find it). A buyer of a $1000000 home needs an income about $200000/yr to support the monthy payment. With an interest only, it is only $95000/yr. That is a great income, but not enough to buy a million dollar morgage. The idea was buy now, get into a house in CV before you were priced out, and then refinance when your income went up. No inceased buying power (recessions happen) along with that kinda morgage no longer being available, and you have CV’s subprime. Is it gonna be as bad as the 2007 hit poor fokes took? Doubt it, there is alot more demand there, just not at those prices. But to say that we will inflate our way out of this mess ANYWHERE in SoCal reads to me like the forcasts of price appreciation in 2007 by the NAR. You cant just say it is different here.

[DWCAP]

Mr. Wong,
I totally agree with you about buyer psycology. I have no idea why about half the people buying homes are right now except to say that they want it. We are not a society built on self denial. I think it would be really interesting if the relators released a survey about buyer reasons for buying. You know, Moving up, sizing down, better schools, etc. I really want to see how many really check the suposid savior box, foreign buyer with too much money. This may be true in NY, or Miami, Hell even La Jolla and Downtown will have some of these. But Muhammad and all his oil billions isnt looking into buying a 2/1 800sqft 20 year old condo in Santee.
I disagree with you about Carmel Valley. I think it will get hit, and hard. It wont be like the IE. BUT it will suffer, just not yet. I dont even think 2008. I am thinking 2011. Here is why. That is 6-12 months after all the PRIME option-arms start hitting their stride. The last recession was felt for about 3 years, (ala 2000-2003). For some reason, that feels about right to me. So call it 2008-2010. Incomes wont have been going up much, jobs will be stagnant, and interest rates really dont have much more that they can go down from today. All of a sudden people who really havnt been getting ahead will feel the pain of subprime today. It will be an all new “crisis” that no one could foresee. We arent going into a depression IMHO, that is stupid scare tatics used to sell news. But a 2-3 bear market to work off the excesses of the largest comodity binge in history seems quite normal.
I back that up with an factoid gleaned from a link on this page to the SF Chronicle (ill look to find it). A buyer of a $1000000 home needs an income about $200000/yr to support the monthy payment. With an interest only, it is only $95000/yr. That is a great income, but not enough to buy a million dollar morgage. The idea was buy now, get into a house in CV before you were priced out, and then refinance when your income went up. No inceased buying power (recessions happen) along with that kinda morgage no longer being available, and you have CV’s subprime. Is it gonna be as bad as the 2007 hit poor fokes took? Doubt it, there is alot more demand there, just not at those prices. But to say that we will inflate our way out of this mess ANYWHERE in SoCal reads to me like the forcasts of price appreciation in 2007 by the NAR. You cant just say it is different here.

[DWCAP]

Mr. Wong,
I totally agree with you about buyer psycology. I have no idea why about half the people buying homes are right now except to say that they want it. We are not a society built on self denial. I think it would be really interesting if the relators released a survey about buyer reasons for buying. You know, Moving up, sizing down, better schools, etc. I really want to see how many really check the suposid savior box, foreign buyer with too much money. This may be true in NY, or Miami, Hell even La Jolla and Downtown will have some of these. But Muhammad and all his oil billions isnt looking into buying a 2/1 800sqft 20 year old condo in Santee.
I disagree with you about Carmel Valley. I think it will get hit, and hard. It wont be like the IE. BUT it will suffer, just not yet. I dont even think 2008. I am thinking 2011. Here is why. That is 6-12 months after all the PRIME option-arms start hitting their stride. The last recession was felt for about 3 years, (ala 2000-2003). For some reason, that feels about right to me. So call it 2008-2010. Incomes wont have been going up much, jobs will be stagnant, and interest rates really dont have much more that they can go down from today. All of a sudden people who really havnt been getting ahead will feel the pain of subprime today. It will be an all new “crisis” that no one could foresee. We arent going into a depression IMHO, that is stupid scare tatics used to sell news. But a 2-3 bear market to work off the excesses of the largest comodity binge in history seems quite normal.
I back that up with an factoid gleaned from a link on this page to the SF Chronicle (ill look to find it). A buyer of a $1000000 home needs an income about $200000/yr to support the monthy payment. With an interest only, it is only $95000/yr. That is a great income, but not enough to buy a million dollar morgage. The idea was buy now, get into a house in CV before you were priced out, and then refinance when your income went up. No inceased buying power (recessions happen) along with that kinda morgage no longer being available, and you have CV’s subprime. Is it gonna be as bad as the 2007 hit poor fokes took? Doubt it, there is alot more demand there, just not at those prices. But to say that we will inflate our way out of this mess ANYWHERE in SoCal reads to me like the forcasts of price appreciation in 2007 by the NAR. You cant just say it is different here.

[DWCAP]

Mr. Wong,
I totally agree with you about buyer psycology. I have no idea why about half the people buying homes are right now except to say that they want it. We are not a society built on self denial. I think it would be really interesting if the relators released a survey about buyer reasons for buying. You know, Moving up, sizing down, better schools, etc. I really want to see how many really check the suposid savior box, foreign buyer with too much money. This may be true in NY, or Miami, Hell even La Jolla and Downtown will have some of these. But Muhammad and all his oil billions isnt looking into buying a 2/1 800sqft 20 year old condo in Santee.
I disagree with you about Carmel Valley. I think it will get hit, and hard. It wont be like the IE. BUT it will suffer, just not yet. I dont even think 2008. I am thinking 2011. Here is why. That is 6-12 months after all the PRIME option-arms start hitting their stride. The last recession was felt for about 3 years, (ala 2000-2003). For some reason, that feels about right to me. So call it 2008-2010. Incomes wont have been going up much, jobs will be stagnant, and interest rates really dont have much more that they can go down from today. All of a sudden people who really havnt been getting ahead will feel the pain of subprime today. It will be an all new “crisis” that no one could foresee. We arent going into a depression IMHO, that is stupid scare tatics used to sell news. But a 2-3 bear market to work off the excesses of the largest comodity binge in history seems quite normal.
I back that up with an factoid gleaned from a link on this page to the SF Chronicle (ill look to find it). A buyer of a $1000000 home needs an income about $200000/yr to support the monthy payment. With an interest only, it is only $95000/yr. That is a great income, but not enough to buy a million dollar morgage. The idea was buy now, get into a house in CV before you were priced out, and then refinance when your income went up. No inceased buying power (recessions happen) along with that kinda morgage no longer being available, and you have CV’s subprime. Is it gonna be as bad as the 2007 hit poor fokes took? Doubt it, there is alot more demand there, just not at those prices. But to say that we will inflate our way out of this mess ANYWHERE in SoCal reads to me like the forcasts of price appreciation in 2007 by the NAR. You cant just say it is different here.

[DWCAP]

I wanted to clarify what I just said. I am not saying MrWong is saying the NAR motto. What I am saying is that these option ARMs are gonna force must sell inventory onto the market. This must sell is gonna go for a larger drop than just a few percent. This is where the “It isnt different here” is coming from, must sells hurting the market. I dont mean to be harsh to MrWong. I had trouble disputing his numbers cept to say that 5-6% Yr over yr appreciation for housing seems high. If I can make that in a tax advantaged leveraged home, why ever buy a bond again?
-20% feels better to me. Million dollar morgage, reduced to 800k, with low interest rates and 3-4 years of wage inflation is going to be alot more doable by a large enough segment of the population to justify the premiums of CV. But I can be wrong, I did just discuss that I really dont have a grasp on buyer psycology. Plus we do agree that these declines will happen at in a few years, not this year. A lot can happen “in a few years”.

[DWCAP]

I wanted to clarify what I just said. I am not saying MrWong is saying the NAR motto. What I am saying is that these option ARMs are gonna force must sell inventory onto the market. This must sell is gonna go for a larger drop than just a few percent. This is where the “It isnt different here” is coming from, must sells hurting the market. I dont mean to be harsh to MrWong. I had trouble disputing his numbers cept to say that 5-6% Yr over yr appreciation for housing seems high. If I can make that in a tax advantaged leveraged home, why ever buy a bond again?
-20% feels better to me. Million dollar morgage, reduced to 800k, with low interest rates and 3-4 years of wage inflation is going to be alot more doable by a large enough segment of the population to justify the premiums of CV. But I can be wrong, I did just discuss that I really dont have a grasp on buyer psycology. Plus we do agree that these declines will happen at in a few years, not this year. A lot can happen “in a few years”.

[DWCAP]

I wanted to clarify what I just said. I am not saying MrWong is saying the NAR motto. What I am saying is that these option ARMs are gonna force must sell inventory onto the market. This must sell is gonna go for a larger drop than just a few percent. This is where the “It isnt different here” is coming from, must sells hurting the market. I dont mean to be harsh to MrWong. I had trouble disputing his numbers cept to say that 5-6% Yr over yr appreciation for housing seems high. If I can make that in a tax advantaged leveraged home, why ever buy a bond again?
-20% feels better to me. Million dollar morgage, reduced to 800k, with low interest rates and 3-4 years of wage inflation is going to be alot more doable by a large enough segment of the population to justify the premiums of CV. But I can be wrong, I did just discuss that I really dont have a grasp on buyer psycology. Plus we do agree that these declines will happen at in a few years, not this year. A lot can happen “in a few years”.

[DWCAP]

I wanted to clarify what I just said. I am not saying MrWong is saying the NAR motto. What I am saying is that these option ARMs are gonna force must sell inventory onto the market. This must sell is gonna go for a larger drop than just a few percent. This is where the “It isnt different here” is coming from, must sells hurting the market. I dont mean to be harsh to MrWong. I had trouble disputing his numbers cept to say that 5-6% Yr over yr appreciation for housing seems high. If I can make that in a tax advantaged leveraged home, why ever buy a bond again?
-20% feels better to me. Million dollar morgage, reduced to 800k, with low interest rates and 3-4 years of wage inflation is going to be alot more doable by a large enough segment of the population to justify the premiums of CV. But I can be wrong, I did just discuss that I really dont have a grasp on buyer psycology. Plus we do agree that these declines will happen at in a few years, not this year. A lot can happen “in a few years”.

[DWCAP]

I wanted to clarify what I just said. I am not saying MrWong is saying the NAR motto. What I am saying is that these option ARMs are gonna force must sell inventory onto the market. This must sell is gonna go for a larger drop than just a few percent. This is where the “It isnt different here” is coming from, must sells hurting the market. I dont mean to be harsh to MrWong. I had trouble disputing his numbers cept to say that 5-6% Yr over yr appreciation for housing seems high. If I can make that in a tax advantaged leveraged home, why ever buy a bond again?
-20% feels better to me. Million dollar morgage, reduced to 800k, with low interest rates and 3-4 years of wage inflation is going to be alot more doable by a large enough segment of the population to justify the premiums of CV. But I can be wrong, I did just discuss that I really dont have a grasp on buyer psycology. Plus we do agree that these declines will happen at in a few years, not this year. A lot can happen “in a few years”.

[DWCAP]

SD Realtor,

It seems hard to believe that 25000 homes sold in 2007, but then that is basically 2000 a month. Somehow that sounds different. Also, how many sold in the last six months? I know that is traditionally the slow time, but that is also the time when a 0% down subprime jumbo loan wasnt available to anyone with a pulse. 2007 started out fine, it was the last 3 months that really took it in the ass. If housing had limped along like it had in the first three months, how many talking heads would be calling down the thunder on anyone who dared to challenge their mastery of the real estate market? Alot more than there are now trying to deflect criticism about the “now is the time to buy” mantra. I guess the thing to remember is that realestate never goes to zero, it is the momentum that counts. Am I wrong?

[raptorduck]

I can only look at myself to evaluate this emotion vs. logic argument.

As a likely 2008 buyer I came to this site last year because I finally found folks not brainwashed by the real estate industry who show me the other side of the home ownership equation.

I like that this site focuses more on the logic than the emotion. I have pleanty of the emotion. My wife, she is all emotion when it comes to buying a home. “The hell with logic” she says, “I wan’t my damn house, of the size and style I want, and I want to do what I want with it without having to ask a landlord and I don’t want to worry about the owner selling and making me give up the home I worked hard to create” yada yada.

My emotion is simple, I am looking for a home, not an investment. But the logical side of me says don’t overpay because you just never know what life brings. The logical side says, be patient. This site has helped me remain patient.

To me, buying a home is very emotional. I can crunch numbers until I turn blue, but in the end emotion is at least half the equation. The trick is to ensure it is 49% and no more so logic will prevail. That is all I need. Emotion is ok. I want to walk into a home and say “wow, this is my dream home, I wan’t to grow old here and raise children here.” I want to see my wife tear up. Once I see that then I can let the logic in me drive the deal and have enough input to walk away if the price is too high and hope for another emotional reaction to a possible abode.

Buyers can be unpredictable with their emotions, with one house in SD, I was. But I think sellers are even more unpredictable. Their emotional attachments to their homes and their value are making for some long long days on market while they wait for that buyer that never comes.

There is a home up here I have discussed before. 4,600 sf listing for $4.4M, the same price it first listed for 1 yr ago. Larger homes on the same street are selling for $500k-$1M less. You see, that seller bought it at the peak of the market for $3.4M and then put $1M into it. So in their eyes, they are being very reasonable considering the market and just trying to break even (which we all know is already not the case at that price, it is still a loss). They will absolutely refuse to lower it one penny despite its actual value being about $3.5-$3.6M now. They are emotionally tied into it and that emotion is controlling any logic. The consequence is >1yr on the market and 2 offers in all of that time, both of which came in the first month of listing and were around $4M or slighly less. I think if they drop the price under $4M it might sell, but they won’t.

To me, it is sellers that are the most emotional right now and their emotions are rulling the day. And to me, that is what one should expect in a “buyers” market. Buyers can afford to be logical in this market. When I bought my current house during a market peak in 2000, it was buyers who were more emotional and their emotions were running the day. I am to be included among them. I overpaid by $100k for my house back then. Sellers were the logical ones, the patient ones.

The odd thing is that buyers were just crazed to buy anything at any cost in that “sellers” market. So you would expect that sellers are crazed to sell at any price in a “buyers” market. But what I see is that they refuse to sell at “any” price. So sticky prices on the way down. This suggests to me that downturns run longer life cycles than housing booms. Curious.

BTW, I think that CV house is priced about right based on what I know about CV in this market. I suspect it will sell, even without the landscaping. CV is still in demand by families and that is a good size house for that price compared to what you can normally get in CV, which is less house for not that much less money than this one.

Just my 2 cent

Future resident of RSF, dunno which part yet.

[raptorduck]

I can only look at myself to evaluate this emotion vs. logic argument.

As a likely 2008 buyer I came to this site last year because I finally found folks not brainwashed by the real estate industry who show me the other side of the home ownership equation.

I like that this site focuses more on the logic than the emotion. I have pleanty of the emotion. My wife, she is all emotion when it comes to buying a home. “The hell with logic” she says, “I wan’t my damn house, of the size and style I want, and I want to do what I want with it without having to ask a landlord and I don’t want to worry about the owner selling and making me give up the home I worked hard to create” yada yada.

My emotion is simple, I am looking for a home, not an investment. But the logical side of me says don’t overpay because you just never know what life brings. The logical side says, be patient. This site has helped me remain patient.

To me, buying a home is very emotional. I can crunch numbers until I turn blue, but in the end emotion is at least half the equation. The trick is to ensure it is 49% and no more so logic will prevail. That is all I need. Emotion is ok. I want to walk into a home and say “wow, this is my dream home, I wan’t to grow old here and raise children here.” I want to see my wife tear up. Once I see that then I can let the logic in me drive the deal and have enough input to walk away if the price is too high and hope for another emotional reaction to a possible abode.

Buyers can be unpredictable with their emotions, with one house in SD, I was. But I think sellers are even more unpredictable. Their emotional attachments to their homes and their value are making for some long long days on market while they wait for that buyer that never comes.

There is a home up here I have discussed before. 4,600 sf listing for $4.4M, the same price it first listed for 1 yr ago. Larger homes on the same street are selling for $500k-$1M less. You see, that seller bought it at the peak of the market for $3.4M and then put $1M into it. So in their eyes, they are being very reasonable considering the market and just trying to break even (which we all know is already not the case at that price, it is still a loss). They will absolutely refuse to lower it one penny despite its actual value being about $3.5-$3.6M now. They are emotionally tied into it and that emotion is controlling any logic. The consequence is >1yr on the market and 2 offers in all of that time, both of which came in the first month of listing and were around $4M or slighly less. I think if they drop the price under $4M it might sell, but they won’t.

To me, it is sellers that are the most emotional right now and their emotions are rulling the day. And to me, that is what one should expect in a “buyers” market. Buyers can afford to be logical in this market. When I bought my current house during a market peak in 2000, it was buyers who were more emotional and their emotions were running the day. I am to be included among them. I overpaid by $100k for my house back then. Sellers were the logical ones, the patient ones.

The odd thing is that buyers were just crazed to buy anything at any cost in that “sellers” market. So you would expect that sellers are crazed to sell at any price in a “buyers” market. But what I see is that they refuse to sell at “any” price. So sticky prices on the way down. This suggests to me that downturns run longer life cycles than housing booms. Curious.

BTW, I think that CV house is priced about right based on what I know about CV in this market. I suspect it will sell, even without the landscaping. CV is still in demand by families and that is a good size house for that price compared to what you can normally get in CV, which is less house for not that much less money than this one.

Just my 2 cent

Future resident of RSF, dunno which part yet.

[raptorduck]

I can only look at myself to evaluate this emotion vs. logic argument.

As a likely 2008 buyer I came to this site last year because I finally found folks not brainwashed by the real estate industry who show me the other side of the home ownership equation.

I like that this site focuses more on the logic than the emotion. I have pleanty of the emotion. My wife, she is all emotion when it comes to buying a home. “The hell with logic” she says, “I wan’t my damn house, of the size and style I want, and I want to do what I want with it without having to ask a landlord and I don’t want to worry about the owner selling and making me give up the home I worked hard to create” yada yada.

My emotion is simple, I am looking for a home, not an investment. But the logical side of me says don’t overpay because you just never know what life brings. The logical side says, be patient. This site has helped me remain patient.

To me, buying a home is very emotional. I can crunch numbers until I turn blue, but in the end emotion is at least half the equation. The trick is to ensure it is 49% and no more so logic will prevail. That is all I need. Emotion is ok. I want to walk into a home and say “wow, this is my dream home, I wan’t to grow old here and raise children here.” I want to see my wife tear up. Once I see that then I can let the logic in me drive the deal and have enough input to walk away if the price is too high and hope for another emotional reaction to a possible abode.

Buyers can be unpredictable with their emotions, with one house in SD, I was. But I think sellers are even more unpredictable. Their emotional attachments to their homes and their value are making for some long long days on market while they wait for that buyer that never comes.

There is a home up here I have discussed before. 4,600 sf listing for $4.4M, the same price it first listed for 1 yr ago. Larger homes on the same street are selling for $500k-$1M less. You see, that seller bought it at the peak of the market for $3.4M and then put $1M into it. So in their eyes, they are being very reasonable considering the market and just trying to break even (which we all know is already not the case at that price, it is still a loss). They will absolutely refuse to lower it one penny despite its actual value being about $3.5-$3.6M now. They are emotionally tied into it and that emotion is controlling any logic. The consequence is >1yr on the market and 2 offers in all of that time, both of which came in the first month of listing and were around $4M or slighly less. I think if they drop the price under $4M it might sell, but they won’t.

To me, it is sellers that are the most emotional right now and their emotions are rulling the day. And to me, that is what one should expect in a “buyers” market. Buyers can afford to be logical in this market. When I bought my current house during a market peak in 2000, it was buyers who were more emotional and their emotions were running the day. I am to be included among them. I overpaid by $100k for my house back then. Sellers were the logical ones, the patient ones.

The odd thing is that buyers were just crazed to buy anything at any cost in that “sellers” market. So you would expect that sellers are crazed to sell at any price in a “buyers” market. But what I see is that they refuse to sell at “any” price. So sticky prices on the way down. This suggests to me that downturns run longer life cycles than housing booms. Curious.

BTW, I think that CV house is priced about right based on what I know about CV in this market. I suspect it will sell, even without the landscaping. CV is still in demand by families and that is a good size house for that price compared to what you can normally get in CV, which is less house for not that much less money than this one.

Just my 2 cent

Future resident of RSF, dunno which part yet.

[raptorduck]

I can only look at myself to evaluate this emotion vs. logic argument.

As a likely 2008 buyer I came to this site last year because I finally found folks not brainwashed by the real estate industry who show me the other side of the home ownership equation.

I like that this site focuses more on the logic than the emotion. I have pleanty of the emotion. My wife, she is all emotion when it comes to buying a home. “The hell with logic” she says, “I wan’t my damn house, of the size and style I want, and I want to do what I want with it without having to ask a landlord and I don’t want to worry about the owner selling and making me give up the home I worked hard to create” yada yada.

My emotion is simple, I am looking for a home, not an investment. But the logical side of me says don’t overpay because you just never know what life brings. The logical side says, be patient. This site has helped me remain patient.

To me, buying a home is very emotional. I can crunch numbers until I turn blue, but in the end emotion is at least half the equation. The trick is to ensure it is 49% and no more so logic will prevail. That is all I need. Emotion is ok. I want to walk into a home and say “wow, this is my dream home, I wan’t to grow old here and raise children here.” I want to see my wife tear up. Once I see that then I can let the logic in me drive the deal and have enough input to walk away if the price is too high and hope for another emotional reaction to a possible abode.

Buyers can be unpredictable with their emotions, with one house in SD, I was. But I think sellers are even more unpredictable. Their emotional attachments to their homes and their value are making for some long long days on market while they wait for that buyer that never comes.

There is a home up here I have discussed before. 4,600 sf listing for $4.4M, the same price it first listed for 1 yr ago. Larger homes on the same street are selling for $500k-$1M less. You see, that seller bought it at the peak of the market for $3.4M and then put $1M into it. So in their eyes, they are being very reasonable considering the market and just trying to break even (which we all know is already not the case at that price, it is still a loss). They will absolutely refuse to lower it one penny despite its actual value being about $3.5-$3.6M now. They are emotionally tied into it and that emotion is controlling any logic. The consequence is >1yr on the market and 2 offers in all of that time, both of which came in the first month of listing and were around $4M or slighly less. I think if they drop the price under $4M it might sell, but they won’t.

To me, it is sellers that are the most emotional right now and their emotions are rulling the day. And to me, that is what one should expect in a “buyers” market. Buyers can afford to be logical in this market. When I bought my current house during a market peak in 2000, it was buyers who were more emotional and their emotions were running the day. I am to be included among them. I overpaid by $100k for my house back then. Sellers were the logical ones, the patient ones.

The odd thing is that buyers were just crazed to buy anything at any cost in that “sellers” market. So you would expect that sellers are crazed to sell at any price in a “buyers” market. But what I see is that they refuse to sell at “any” price. So sticky prices on the way down. This suggests to me that downturns run longer life cycles than housing booms. Curious.

BTW, I think that CV house is priced about right based on what I know about CV in this market. I suspect it will sell, even without the landscaping. CV is still in demand by families and that is a good size house for that price compared to what you can normally get in CV, which is less house for not that much less money than this one.

Just my 2 cent

Future resident of RSF, dunno which part yet.

[raptorduck]

I can only look at myself to evaluate this emotion vs. logic argument.

As a likely 2008 buyer I came to this site last year because I finally found folks not brainwashed by the real estate industry who show me the other side of the home ownership equation.

I like that this site focuses more on the logic than the emotion. I have pleanty of the emotion. My wife, she is all emotion when it comes to buying a home. “The hell with logic” she says, “I wan’t my damn house, of the size and style I want, and I want to do what I want with it without having to ask a landlord and I don’t want to worry about the owner selling and making me give up the home I worked hard to create” yada yada.

My emotion is simple, I am looking for a home, not an investment. But the logical side of me says don’t overpay because you just never know what life brings. The logical side says, be patient. This site has helped me remain patient.

To me, buying a home is very emotional. I can crunch numbers until I turn blue, but in the end emotion is at least half the equation. The trick is to ensure it is 49% and no more so logic will prevail. That is all I need. Emotion is ok. I want to walk into a home and say “wow, this is my dream home, I wan’t to grow old here and raise children here.” I want to see my wife tear up. Once I see that then I can let the logic in me drive the deal and have enough input to walk away if the price is too high and hope for another emotional reaction to a possible abode.

Buyers can be unpredictable with their emotions, with one house in SD, I was. But I think sellers are even more unpredictable. Their emotional attachments to their homes and their value are making for some long long days on market while they wait for that buyer that never comes.

There is a home up here I have discussed before. 4,600 sf listing for $4.4M, the same price it first listed for 1 yr ago. Larger homes on the same street are selling for $500k-$1M less. You see, that seller bought it at the peak of the market for $3.4M and then put $1M into it. So in their eyes, they are being very reasonable considering the market and just trying to break even (which we all know is already not the case at that price, it is still a loss). They will absolutely refuse to lower it one penny despite its actual value being about $3.5-$3.6M now. They are emotionally tied into it and that emotion is controlling any logic. The consequence is >1yr on the market and 2 offers in all of that time, both of which came in the first month of listing and were around $4M or slighly less. I think if they drop the price under $4M it might sell, but they won’t.

To me, it is sellers that are the most emotional right now and their emotions are rulling the day. And to me, that is what one should expect in a “buyers” market. Buyers can afford to be logical in this market. When I bought my current house during a market peak in 2000, it was buyers who were more emotional and their emotions were running the day. I am to be included among them. I overpaid by $100k for my house back then. Sellers were the logical ones, the patient ones.

The odd thing is that buyers were just crazed to buy anything at any cost in that “sellers” market. So you would expect that sellers are crazed to sell at any price in a “buyers” market. But what I see is that they refuse to sell at “any” price. So sticky prices on the way down. This suggests to me that downturns run longer life cycles than housing booms. Curious.

BTW, I think that CV house is priced about right based on what I know about CV in this market. I suspect it will sell, even without the landscaping. CV is still in demand by families and that is a good size house for that price compared to what you can normally get in CV, which is less house for not that much less money than this one.

Just my 2 cent

Future resident of RSF, dunno which part yet.

[SD Realtor]

DWCAP good posts. By the way I agree that CV will continue to depreciate. No argument there at all. How much? I am not sure, maybe down to 2001 pricing. Will a home like this go for 750k? Not in my opinion. The 25k number I used was from a post Bugs made for the totals. As for the timing, spring always has the larger number of closing as it is always a seasonal high point for activity. We will see where 2008 heads out to. I expect the volume in 08 to be below 07 by perhaps as much as 10-15% but I could be wrong. The option arm wave to me, will not start to swamp the market until 2009 and beyond by the looks of the chart. 2008 will continue to cope with the subprimers going down. The option arm wave worries me alot on two fronts. Yes it can really hurt the market much more then the subprime but it is also filled with more qualified homeowners who have the ability to float with the tide if some entity provided relief in the form of a 5 year freeze on the rates.

Again, I have no clue about if/when buyers will ever dry up at all. Maybe this year, maybe next year, maybe never. Demand has ABSOLUTELY gone way down which is great but even 25k sales in 07 still surprises me.

Just on this board, to say I am astounded by how many people post that they want to live in Temecula or Murrieta is a huge eye opener to me. I am not an elitist or anything of the sort but I had no idea of the demand for that area.
Similarly if banks continue to carve pricings out there at the present rate, those homes will pencil out sooner, much sooner then 2010-2012 and they will get purchased by savvy investors.

I think that masses are somewhat driven by the talking heads but not as many as we think. This is the point where in my opinion, income level starts to take effect. Those making more money tend to listen to the heads less then those making less. That sounds snobbish but I find it to be true.

Personally I find the assessment you make to be pretty much correct. I tend to think 09 will be worse then 08 but I am certainly not saying 08 will not be worse then 07. I guess we will see. I still think for the home type I want it will be a longer haul into 2010-2012 for a bottom.

SD Realtor

[Coronita]

If a home like this can go for $750k, in inflationary weak dollar we are heading towards, this would be a steal for just about every other foreigner. At that price, even my sis-in-law from PRC would consider buying that, especially once the Yuan floats. I would buy that property without hesitation, my parents would buy that property without hesitation, and about 10 other people I know looking to move up would buy that place without hesitation.

As much as I'd like to dream about something like this in the $800k terms, I can't see it happening in the forseeable future. It will be interesting to see what a continued weakening dollar will do to home prices.

Anyone thinking about a worst case scenario in which to americans, american homes are unattainable but to foreigners it's dirt cheap? Just food for thought.

 

[img_assist|nid=5962|title=selfportrait|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=100|height=80]

—– Sour grapes for everyone!

[bsrsharma]

At that price, even my sis-in-law from PRC would consider buying that, especially once the Yuan floats. I would buy that property without hesitation, my parents would buy that property without hesitation, and about 10 other people I know looking to move up would buy that place without hesitation.

FLU,

Interesting info. How many of the said population can buy that for cash? Non-conforming mortgages have been difficult recently. So, they may have to come up with at least $400K.

[Coronita]

All of the above, except it would probably require rejuggling of resources to make things liquidable or a small light conforming loan.

Folks that think RE markets here are crazy need to take a look at the insanity in places like Beijing, Shanghai, etc. Bubble appreciation 2-4x in just a few years is even more ridiculous. For example, Sis in law purchased a lakefront home in outskirts of Shanghai at $400KUSD with 20% down. Currently renting to expat VP for current exchange rate converted. $4200USD/month. And she has no capital gains, income tax to pay on this whatsoever. So for example, she could nominally buy a place here with a very light loan that she could probably secure overseas, not factoring in additional USD devaluation relative to the RMB if the RMB does eventually float.

And the other thing, let's say the dollar gets wacked another 20-30% versus the other world currencies. Even those loony buyers north of us will start think RE is cheap here, if there are no actual drop in prices. Add in a price drop, appearance would seem to be even more of a bargain.

That's why I'm starting to think a crashing dollar isn't going to be a good thing in terms of housing affordability for people here dependent on the dollar. Relative to the world, we will just be much poorer. But I'm no economist, so what do I know.

 

[img_assist|nid=5962|title=selfportrait|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=100|height=80]

—– Sour grapes for everyone!

[Coronita]

All of the above, except it would probably require rejuggling of resources to make things liquidable or a small light conforming loan.

Folks that think RE markets here are crazy need to take a look at the insanity in places like Beijing, Shanghai, etc. Bubble appreciation 2-4x in just a few years is even more ridiculous. For example, Sis in law purchased a lakefront home in outskirts of Shanghai at $400KUSD with 20% down. Currently renting to expat VP for current exchange rate converted. $4200USD/month. And she has no capital gains, income tax to pay on this whatsoever. So for example, she could nominally buy a place here with a very light loan that she could probably secure overseas, not factoring in additional USD devaluation relative to the RMB if the RMB does eventually float.

And the other thing, let's say the dollar gets wacked another 20-30% versus the other world currencies. Even those loony buyers north of us will start think RE is cheap here, if there are no actual drop in prices. Add in a price drop, appearance would seem to be even more of a bargain.

That's why I'm starting to think a crashing dollar isn't going to be a good thing in terms of housing affordability for people here dependent on the dollar. Relative to the world, we will just be much poorer. But I'm no economist, so what do I know.

 

[img_assist|nid=5962|title=selfportrait|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=100|height=80]

—– Sour grapes for everyone!

[Coronita]

All of the above, except it would probably require rejuggling of resources to make things liquidable or a small light conforming loan.

Folks that think RE markets here are crazy need to take a look at the insanity in places like Beijing, Shanghai, etc. Bubble appreciation 2-4x in just a few years is even more ridiculous. For example, Sis in law purchased a lakefront home in outskirts of Shanghai at $400KUSD with 20% down. Currently renting to expat VP for current exchange rate converted. $4200USD/month. And she has no capital gains, income tax to pay on this whatsoever. So for example, she could nominally buy a place here with a very light loan that she could probably secure overseas, not factoring in additional USD devaluation relative to the RMB if the RMB does eventually float.

And the other thing, let's say the dollar gets wacked another 20-30% versus the other world currencies. Even those loony buyers north of us will start think RE is cheap here, if there are no actual drop in prices. Add in a price drop, appearance would seem to be even more of a bargain.

That's why I'm starting to think a crashing dollar isn't going to be a good thing in terms of housing affordability for people here dependent on the dollar. Relative to the world, we will just be much poorer. But I'm no economist, so what do I know.

 

[img_assist|nid=5962|title=selfportrait|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=100|height=80]

—– Sour grapes for everyone!

[Coronita]

All of the above, except it would probably require rejuggling of resources to make things liquidable or a small light conforming loan.

Folks that think RE markets here are crazy need to take a look at the insanity in places like Beijing, Shanghai, etc. Bubble appreciation 2-4x in just a few years is even more ridiculous. For example, Sis in law purchased a lakefront home in outskirts of Shanghai at $400KUSD with 20% down. Currently renting to expat VP for current exchange rate converted. $4200USD/month. And she has no capital gains, income tax to pay on this whatsoever. So for example, she could nominally buy a place here with a very light loan that she could probably secure overseas, not factoring in additional USD devaluation relative to the RMB if the RMB does eventually float.

And the other thing, let's say the dollar gets wacked another 20-30% versus the other world currencies. Even those loony buyers north of us will start think RE is cheap here, if there are no actual drop in prices. Add in a price drop, appearance would seem to be even more of a bargain.

That's why I'm starting to think a crashing dollar isn't going to be a good thing in terms of housing affordability for people here dependent on the dollar. Relative to the world, we will just be much poorer. But I'm no economist, so what do I know.

 

[img_assist|nid=5962|title=selfportrait|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=100|height=80]

—– Sour grapes for everyone!

[Coronita]

All of the above, except it would probably require rejuggling of resources to make things liquidable or a small light conforming loan.

Folks that think RE markets here are crazy need to take a look at the insanity in places like Beijing, Shanghai, etc. Bubble appreciation 2-4x in just a few years is even more ridiculous. For example, Sis in law purchased a lakefront home in outskirts of Shanghai at $400KUSD with 20% down. Currently renting to expat VP for current exchange rate converted. $4200USD/month. And she has no capital gains, income tax to pay on this whatsoever. So for example, she could nominally buy a place here with a very light loan that she could probably secure overseas, not factoring in additional USD devaluation relative to the RMB if the RMB does eventually float.

And the other thing, let's say the dollar gets wacked another 20-30% versus the other world currencies. Even those loony buyers north of us will start think RE is cheap here, if there are no actual drop in prices. Add in a price drop, appearance would seem to be even more of a bargain.

That's why I'm starting to think a crashing dollar isn't going to be a good thing in terms of housing affordability for people here dependent on the dollar. Relative to the world, we will just be much poorer. But I'm no economist, so what do I know.

 

[img_assist|nid=5962|title=selfportrait|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=100|height=80]

—– Sour grapes for everyone!

[bsrsharma]

At that price, even my sis-in-law from PRC would consider buying that, especially once the Yuan floats. I would buy that property without hesitation, my parents would buy that property without hesitation, and about 10 other people I know looking to move up would buy that place without hesitation.

FLU,

Interesting info. How many of the said population can buy that for cash? Non-conforming mortgages have been difficult recently. So, they may have to come up with at least $400K.

[bsrsharma]

At that price, even my sis-in-law from PRC would consider buying that, especially once the Yuan floats. I would buy that property without hesitation, my parents would buy that property without hesitation, and about 10 other people I know looking to move up would buy that place without hesitation.

FLU,

Interesting info. How many of the said population can buy that for cash? Non-conforming mortgages have been difficult recently. So, they may have to come up with at least $400K.

[bsrsharma]

At that price, even my sis-in-law from PRC would consider buying that, especially once the Yuan floats. I would buy that property without hesitation, my parents would buy that property without hesitation, and about 10 other people I know looking to move up would buy that place without hesitation.

FLU,

Interesting info. How many of the said population can buy that for cash? Non-conforming mortgages have been difficult recently. So, they may have to come up with at least $400K.

[bsrsharma]

At that price, even my sis-in-law from PRC would consider buying that, especially once the Yuan floats. I would buy that property without hesitation, my parents would buy that property without hesitation, and about 10 other people I know looking to move up would buy that place without hesitation.

FLU,

Interesting info. How many of the said population can buy that for cash? Non-conforming mortgages have been difficult recently. So, they may have to come up with at least $400K.

[Coronita]

If a home like this can go for $750k, in inflationary weak dollar we are heading towards, this would be a steal for just about every other foreigner. At that price, even my sis-in-law from PRC would consider buying that, especially once the Yuan floats. I would buy that property without hesitation, my parents would buy that property without hesitation, and about 10 other people I know looking to move up would buy that place without hesitation.

As much as I'd like to dream about something like this in the $800k terms, I can't see it happening in the forseeable future. It will be interesting to see what a continued weakening dollar will do to home prices.

Anyone thinking about a worst case scenario in which to americans, american homes are unattainable but to foreigners it's dirt cheap? Just food for thought.

 

[img_assist|nid=5962|title=selfportrait|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=100|height=80]

—– Sour grapes for everyone!

[Coronita]

If a home like this can go for $750k, in inflationary weak dollar we are heading towards, this would be a steal for just about every other foreigner. At that price, even my sis-in-law from PRC would consider buying that, especially once the Yuan floats. I would buy that property without hesitation, my parents would buy that property without hesitation, and about 10 other people I know looking to move up would buy that place without hesitation.

As much as I'd like to dream about something like this in the $800k terms, I can't see it happening in the forseeable future. It will be interesting to see what a continued weakening dollar will do to home prices.

Anyone thinking about a worst case scenario in which to americans, american homes are unattainable but to foreigners it's dirt cheap? Just food for thought.

 

[img_assist|nid=5962|title=selfportrait|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=100|height=80]

—– Sour grapes for everyone!

[Coronita]

If a home like this can go for $750k, in inflationary weak dollar we are heading towards, this would be a steal for just about every other foreigner. At that price, even my sis-in-law from PRC would consider buying that, especially once the Yuan floats. I would buy that property without hesitation, my parents would buy that property without hesitation, and about 10 other people I know looking to move up would buy that place without hesitation.

As much as I'd like to dream about something like this in the $800k terms, I can't see it happening in the forseeable future. It will be interesting to see what a continued weakening dollar will do to home prices.

Anyone thinking about a worst case scenario in which to americans, american homes are unattainable but to foreigners it's dirt cheap? Just food for thought.

 

[img_assist|nid=5962|title=selfportrait|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=100|height=80]

—– Sour grapes for everyone!

[Coronita]

If a home like this can go for $750k, in inflationary weak dollar we are heading towards, this would be a steal for just about every other foreigner. At that price, even my sis-in-law from PRC would consider buying that, especially once the Yuan floats. I would buy that property without hesitation, my parents would buy that property without hesitation, and about 10 other people I know looking to move up would buy that place without hesitation.

As much as I'd like to dream about something like this in the $800k terms, I can't see it happening in the forseeable future. It will be interesting to see what a continued weakening dollar will do to home prices.

Anyone thinking about a worst case scenario in which to americans, american homes are unattainable but to foreigners it's dirt cheap? Just food for thought.

 

[img_assist|nid=5962|title=selfportrait|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=100|height=80]

—– Sour grapes for everyone!

[SD Realtor]

DWCAP good posts. By the way I agree that CV will continue to depreciate. No argument there at all. How much? I am not sure, maybe down to 2001 pricing. Will a home like this go for 750k? Not in my opinion. The 25k number I used was from a post Bugs made for the totals. As for the timing, spring always has the larger number of closing as it is always a seasonal high point for activity. We will see where 2008 heads out to. I expect the volume in 08 to be below 07 by perhaps as much as 10-15% but I could be wrong. The option arm wave to me, will not start to swamp the market until 2009 and beyond by the looks of the chart. 2008 will continue to cope with the subprimers going down. The option arm wave worries me alot on two fronts. Yes it can really hurt the market much more then the subprime but it is also filled with more qualified homeowners who have the ability to float with the tide if some entity provided relief in the form of a 5 year freeze on the rates.

Again, I have no clue about if/when buyers will ever dry up at all. Maybe this year, maybe next year, maybe never. Demand has ABSOLUTELY gone way down which is great but even 25k sales in 07 still surprises me.

Just on this board, to say I am astounded by how many people post that they want to live in Temecula or Murrieta is a huge eye opener to me. I am not an elitist or anything of the sort but I had no idea of the demand for that area.
Similarly if banks continue to carve pricings out there at the present rate, those homes will pencil out sooner, much sooner then 2010-2012 and they will get purchased by savvy investors.

I think that masses are somewhat driven by the talking heads but not as many as we think. This is the point where in my opinion, income level starts to take effect. Those making more money tend to listen to the heads less then those making less. That sounds snobbish but I find it to be true.

Personally I find the assessment you make to be pretty much correct. I tend to think 09 will be worse then 08 but I am certainly not saying 08 will not be worse then 07. I guess we will see. I still think for the home type I want it will be a longer haul into 2010-2012 for a bottom.

SD Realtor

[SD Realtor]

DWCAP good posts. By the way I agree that CV will continue to depreciate. No argument there at all. How much? I am not sure, maybe down to 2001 pricing. Will a home like this go for 750k? Not in my opinion. The 25k number I used was from a post Bugs made for the totals. As for the timing, spring always has the larger number of closing as it is always a seasonal high point for activity. We will see where 2008 heads out to. I expect the volume in 08 to be below 07 by perhaps as much as 10-15% but I could be wrong. The option arm wave to me, will not start to swamp the market until 2009 and beyond by the looks of the chart. 2008 will continue to cope with the subprimers going down. The option arm wave worries me alot on two fronts. Yes it can really hurt the market much more then the subprime but it is also filled with more qualified homeowners who have the ability to float with the tide if some entity provided relief in the form of a 5 year freeze on the rates.

Again, I have no clue about if/when buyers will ever dry up at all. Maybe this year, maybe next year, maybe never. Demand has ABSOLUTELY gone way down which is great but even 25k sales in 07 still surprises me.

Just on this board, to say I am astounded by how many people post that they want to live in Temecula or Murrieta is a huge eye opener to me. I am not an elitist or anything of the sort but I had no idea of the demand for that area.
Similarly if banks continue to carve pricings out there at the present rate, those homes will pencil out sooner, much sooner then 2010-2012 and they will get purchased by savvy investors.

I think that masses are somewhat driven by the talking heads but not as many as we think. This is the point where in my opinion, income level starts to take effect. Those making more money tend to listen to the heads less then those making less. That sounds snobbish but I find it to be true.

Personally I find the assessment you make to be pretty much correct. I tend to think 09 will be worse then 08 but I am certainly not saying 08 will not be worse then 07. I guess we will see. I still think for the home type I want it will be a longer haul into 2010-2012 for a bottom.

SD Realtor

[SD Realtor]

DWCAP good posts. By the way I agree that CV will continue to depreciate. No argument there at all. How much? I am not sure, maybe down to 2001 pricing. Will a home like this go for 750k? Not in my opinion. The 25k number I used was from a post Bugs made for the totals. As for the timing, spring always has the larger number of closing as it is always a seasonal high point for activity. We will see where 2008 heads out to. I expect the volume in 08 to be below 07 by perhaps as much as 10-15% but I could be wrong. The option arm wave to me, will not start to swamp the market until 2009 and beyond by the looks of the chart. 2008 will continue to cope with the subprimers going down. The option arm wave worries me alot on two fronts. Yes it can really hurt the market much more then the subprime but it is also filled with more qualified homeowners who have the ability to float with the tide if some entity provided relief in the form of a 5 year freeze on the rates.

Again, I have no clue about if/when buyers will ever dry up at all. Maybe this year, maybe next year, maybe never. Demand has ABSOLUTELY gone way down which is great but even 25k sales in 07 still surprises me.

Just on this board, to say I am astounded by how many people post that they want to live in Temecula or Murrieta is a huge eye opener to me. I am not an elitist or anything of the sort but I had no idea of the demand for that area.
Similarly if banks continue to carve pricings out there at the present rate, those homes will pencil out sooner, much sooner then 2010-2012 and they will get purchased by savvy investors.

I think that masses are somewhat driven by the talking heads but not as many as we think. This is the point where in my opinion, income level starts to take effect. Those making more money tend to listen to the heads less then those making less. That sounds snobbish but I find it to be true.

Personally I find the assessment you make to be pretty much correct. I tend to think 09 will be worse then 08 but I am certainly not saying 08 will not be worse then 07. I guess we will see. I still think for the home type I want it will be a longer haul into 2010-2012 for a bottom.

SD Realtor

[SD Realtor]

DWCAP good posts. By the way I agree that CV will continue to depreciate. No argument there at all. How much? I am not sure, maybe down to 2001 pricing. Will a home like this go for 750k? Not in my opinion. The 25k number I used was from a post Bugs made for the totals. As for the timing, spring always has the larger number of closing as it is always a seasonal high point for activity. We will see where 2008 heads out to. I expect the volume in 08 to be below 07 by perhaps as much as 10-15% but I could be wrong. The option arm wave to me, will not start to swamp the market until 2009 and beyond by the looks of the chart. 2008 will continue to cope with the subprimers going down. The option arm wave worries me alot on two fronts. Yes it can really hurt the market much more then the subprime but it is also filled with more qualified homeowners who have the ability to float with the tide if some entity provided relief in the form of a 5 year freeze on the rates.

Again, I have no clue about if/when buyers will ever dry up at all. Maybe this year, maybe next year, maybe never. Demand has ABSOLUTELY gone way down which is great but even 25k sales in 07 still surprises me.

Just on this board, to say I am astounded by how many people post that they want to live in Temecula or Murrieta is a huge eye opener to me. I am not an elitist or anything of the sort but I had no idea of the demand for that area.
Similarly if banks continue to carve pricings out there at the present rate, those homes will pencil out sooner, much sooner then 2010-2012 and they will get purchased by savvy investors.

I think that masses are somewhat driven by the talking heads but not as many as we think. This is the point where in my opinion, income level starts to take effect. Those making more money tend to listen to the heads less then those making less. That sounds snobbish but I find it to be true.

Personally I find the assessment you make to be pretty much correct. I tend to think 09 will be worse then 08 but I am certainly not saying 08 will not be worse then 07. I guess we will see. I still think for the home type I want it will be a longer haul into 2010-2012 for a bottom.

SD Realtor

[DWCAP]

SD Realtor,

It seems hard to believe that 25000 homes sold in 2007, but then that is basically 2000 a month. Somehow that sounds different. Also, how many sold in the last six months? I know that is traditionally the slow time, but that is also the time when a 0% down subprime jumbo loan wasnt available to anyone with a pulse. 2007 started out fine, it was the last 3 months that really took it in the ass. If housing had limped along like it had in the first three months, how many talking heads would be calling down the thunder on anyone who dared to challenge their mastery of the real estate market? Alot more than there are now trying to deflect criticism about the “now is the time to buy” mantra. I guess the thing to remember is that realestate never goes to zero, it is the momentum that counts. Am I wrong?

[DWCAP]

SD Realtor,

It seems hard to believe that 25000 homes sold in 2007, but then that is basically 2000 a month. Somehow that sounds different. Also, how many sold in the last six months? I know that is traditionally the slow time, but that is also the time when a 0% down subprime jumbo loan wasnt available to anyone with a pulse. 2007 started out fine, it was the last 3 months that really took it in the ass. If housing had limped along like it had in the first three months, how many talking heads would be calling down the thunder on anyone who dared to challenge their mastery of the real estate market? Alot more than there are now trying to deflect criticism about the “now is the time to buy” mantra. I guess the thing to remember is that realestate never goes to zero, it is the momentum that counts. Am I wrong?

[DWCAP]

SD Realtor,

It seems hard to believe that 25000 homes sold in 2007, but then that is basically 2000 a month. Somehow that sounds different. Also, how many sold in the last six months? I know that is traditionally the slow time, but that is also the time when a 0% down subprime jumbo loan wasnt available to anyone with a pulse. 2007 started out fine, it was the last 3 months that really took it in the ass. If housing had limped along like it had in the first three months, how many talking heads would be calling down the thunder on anyone who dared to challenge their mastery of the real estate market? Alot more than there are now trying to deflect criticism about the “now is the time to buy” mantra. I guess the thing to remember is that realestate never goes to zero, it is the momentum that counts. Am I wrong?

[DWCAP]

SD Realtor,

It seems hard to believe that 25000 homes sold in 2007, but then that is basically 2000 a month. Somehow that sounds different. Also, how many sold in the last six months? I know that is traditionally the slow time, but that is also the time when a 0% down subprime jumbo loan wasnt available to anyone with a pulse. 2007 started out fine, it was the last 3 months that really took it in the ass. If housing had limped along like it had in the first three months, how many talking heads would be calling down the thunder on anyone who dared to challenge their mastery of the real estate market? Alot more than there are now trying to deflect criticism about the “now is the time to buy” mantra. I guess the thing to remember is that realestate never goes to zero, it is the momentum that counts. Am I wrong?

[DWCAP]

The biggest problem I see with inflation used in alot of posts is the index to monitary inflation. What needs to be used, but is a lot harder to measure and work with is WAGE inflation. That was the whole problem of Stagflation, inflation was eating up any real gains in peoples ability to buy. If inflation is going up by 5% in 2008 (just a # I made up), but wages go up only 3%, people are falling behind. To suppose that they can then buy more house because inflation is up 5% is just wrong. With $100 oil, and food going up like mad, inflation hurts.
What I really like about this site and rich’s insights is that it relates real estate to wages and the overall economy in a way that I cant do. If the average person isnt getting ahead, then real estate as a whole isnt going to keep going up for long. I may be wrong, but I dont think real people are getting ahead right now. Sure the people in the 200000+ are good, they are always good, but service jobs just dont pay as well.

[DWCAP]

The biggest problem I see with inflation used in alot of posts is the index to monitary inflation. What needs to be used, but is a lot harder to measure and work with is WAGE inflation. That was the whole problem of Stagflation, inflation was eating up any real gains in peoples ability to buy. If inflation is going up by 5% in 2008 (just a # I made up), but wages go up only 3%, people are falling behind. To suppose that they can then buy more house because inflation is up 5% is just wrong. With $100 oil, and food going up like mad, inflation hurts.
What I really like about this site and rich’s insights is that it relates real estate to wages and the overall economy in a way that I cant do. If the average person isnt getting ahead, then real estate as a whole isnt going to keep going up for long. I may be wrong, but I dont think real people are getting ahead right now. Sure the people in the 200000+ are good, they are always good, but service jobs just dont pay as well.

[DWCAP]

The biggest problem I see with inflation used in alot of posts is the index to monitary inflation. What needs to be used, but is a lot harder to measure and work with is WAGE inflation. That was the whole problem of Stagflation, inflation was eating up any real gains in peoples ability to buy. If inflation is going up by 5% in 2008 (just a # I made up), but wages go up only 3%, people are falling behind. To suppose that they can then buy more house because inflation is up 5% is just wrong. With $100 oil, and food going up like mad, inflation hurts.
What I really like about this site and rich’s insights is that it relates real estate to wages and the overall economy in a way that I cant do. If the average person isnt getting ahead, then real estate as a whole isnt going to keep going up for long. I may be wrong, but I dont think real people are getting ahead right now. Sure the people in the 200000+ are good, they are always good, but service jobs just dont pay as well.

[DWCAP]

The biggest problem I see with inflation used in alot of posts is the index to monitary inflation. What needs to be used, but is a lot harder to measure and work with is WAGE inflation. That was the whole problem of Stagflation, inflation was eating up any real gains in peoples ability to buy. If inflation is going up by 5% in 2008 (just a # I made up), but wages go up only 3%, people are falling behind. To suppose that they can then buy more house because inflation is up 5% is just wrong. With $100 oil, and food going up like mad, inflation hurts.
What I really like about this site and rich’s insights is that it relates real estate to wages and the overall economy in a way that I cant do. If the average person isnt getting ahead, then real estate as a whole isnt going to keep going up for long. I may be wrong, but I dont think real people are getting ahead right now. Sure the people in the 200000+ are good, they are always good, but service jobs just dont pay as well.

[DWCAP]

The biggest problem I see with inflation used in alot of posts is the index to monitary inflation. What needs to be used, but is a lot harder to measure and work with is WAGE inflation. That was the whole problem of Stagflation, inflation was eating up any real gains in peoples ability to buy. If inflation is going up by 5% in 2008 (just a # I made up), but wages go up only 3%, people are falling behind. To suppose that they can then buy more house because inflation is up 5% is just wrong. With $100 oil, and food going up like mad, inflation hurts.
What I really like about this site and rich’s insights is that it relates real estate to wages and the overall economy in a way that I cant do. If the average person isnt getting ahead, then real estate as a whole isnt going to keep going up for long. I may be wrong, but I dont think real people are getting ahead right now. Sure the people in the 200000+ are good, they are always good, but service jobs just dont pay as well.

[DWCAP]

Also, I am shocked at how many foreign buyers seem to want to own USA real estate. I dont care what they are paying for taxes in their home countries, they are paying property taxes, HOA’s, Mello Roo’s are a bunch of other taxes and fees on a depreciating asset. Plus with the doller falling so low already, I cant imagine it falling too much more before these international multimillionares feel the pain that comes with it. So basiclly they are gonna plop down a few mill, on a house that is loosing value and projected to loose value, and is in a foreign country that they will only spend a minority of the year in.
I dont dispute that they CANT buy, I am sure they can pick up two or three if they really wanted, but why should they? Rent a suite in Coronado or in La Jolla for a month for what they would pay in property taxes every year and let someone else take the depreciation and maintance costs. Add in a personal maid to clean your house (a hotel does it daily) maintance people to care for the yard, and security to protect the place and this investment is really getting expensive. Plus, the dollar is at all time low’s. Who is to say that in 3-7 years it wont have gone up against some of these other currencies, then where are they? Dont believe me, how many people accuratly thought that the dollar/Euro excange would be 1.5/1 now back in 2000? Not many.
So I guess it comes down to a look at me know factor. There are plenty of people in the world with the resources to pay for all the costs plus the real estate back in 2005, let alone today. If they want to show that they have made it, they can buy and enjoy. Some will. But usually these people have those kinda resources for a reason, and ego boosting isnt usually high on that list of reasons. I just think that the number choosing the ego boost wont be enough to save this market. What I really think is happening/being detected is the leftovers from the party. Some people missed the boat and think this is their second chance to ride the real estate wave. Unless they are looking for a long term retreat (read 10 years+), it isnt. Besides shopping trips to New York are a much bigger and more showy ego boost that doesnt have nearly the overhead costs.

[DWCAP]

Also, I am shocked at how many foreign buyers seem to want to own USA real estate. I dont care what they are paying for taxes in their home countries, they are paying property taxes, HOA’s, Mello Roo’s are a bunch of other taxes and fees on a depreciating asset. Plus with the doller falling so low already, I cant imagine it falling too much more before these international multimillionares feel the pain that comes with it. So basiclly they are gonna plop down a few mill, on a house that is loosing value and projected to loose value, and is in a foreign country that they will only spend a minority of the year in.
I dont dispute that they CANT buy, I am sure they can pick up two or three if they really wanted, but why should they? Rent a suite in Coronado or in La Jolla for a month for what they would pay in property taxes every year and let someone else take the depreciation and maintance costs. Add in a personal maid to clean your house (a hotel does it daily) maintance people to care for the yard, and security to protect the place and this investment is really getting expensive. Plus, the dollar is at all time low’s. Who is to say that in 3-7 years it wont have gone up against some of these other currencies, then where are they? Dont believe me, how many people accuratly thought that the dollar/Euro excange would be 1.5/1 now back in 2000? Not many.
So I guess it comes down to a look at me know factor. There are plenty of people in the world with the resources to pay for all the costs plus the real estate back in 2005, let alone today. If they want to show that they have made it, they can buy and enjoy. Some will. But usually these people have those kinda resources for a reason, and ego boosting isnt usually high on that list of reasons. I just think that the number choosing the ego boost wont be enough to save this market. What I really think is happening/being detected is the leftovers from the party. Some people missed the boat and think this is their second chance to ride the real estate wave. Unless they are looking for a long term retreat (read 10 years+), it isnt. Besides shopping trips to New York are a much bigger and more showy ego boost that doesnt have nearly the overhead costs.

[DWCAP]

Also, I am shocked at how many foreign buyers seem to want to own USA real estate. I dont care what they are paying for taxes in their home countries, they are paying property taxes, HOA’s, Mello Roo’s are a bunch of other taxes and fees on a depreciating asset. Plus with the doller falling so low already, I cant imagine it falling too much more before these international multimillionares feel the pain that comes with it. So basiclly they are gonna plop down a few mill, on a house that is loosing value and projected to loose value, and is in a foreign country that they will only spend a minority of the year in.
I dont dispute that they CANT buy, I am sure they can pick up two or three if they really wanted, but why should they? Rent a suite in Coronado or in La Jolla for a month for what they would pay in property taxes every year and let someone else take the depreciation and maintance costs. Add in a personal maid to clean your house (a hotel does it daily) maintance people to care for the yard, and security to protect the place and this investment is really getting expensive. Plus, the dollar is at all time low’s. Who is to say that in 3-7 years it wont have gone up against some of these other currencies, then where are they? Dont believe me, how many people accuratly thought that the dollar/Euro excange would be 1.5/1 now back in 2000? Not many.
So I guess it comes down to a look at me know factor. There are plenty of people in the world with the resources to pay for all the costs plus the real estate back in 2005, let alone today. If they want to show that they have made it, they can buy and enjoy. Some will. But usually these people have those kinda resources for a reason, and ego boosting isnt usually high on that list of reasons. I just think that the number choosing the ego boost wont be enough to save this market. What I really think is happening/being detected is the leftovers from the party. Some people missed the boat and think this is their second chance to ride the real estate wave. Unless they are looking for a long term retreat (read 10 years+), it isnt. Besides shopping trips to New York are a much bigger and more showy ego boost that doesnt have nearly the overhead costs.

[DWCAP]

Also, I am shocked at how many foreign buyers seem to want to own USA real estate. I dont care what they are paying for taxes in their home countries, they are paying property taxes, HOA’s, Mello Roo’s are a bunch of other taxes and fees on a depreciating asset. Plus with the doller falling so low already, I cant imagine it falling too much more before these international multimillionares feel the pain that comes with it. So basiclly they are gonna plop down a few mill, on a house that is loosing value and projected to loose value, and is in a foreign country that they will only spend a minority of the year in.
I dont dispute that they CANT buy, I am sure they can pick up two or three if they really wanted, but why should they? Rent a suite in Coronado or in La Jolla for a month for what they would pay in property taxes every year and let someone else take the depreciation and maintance costs. Add in a personal maid to clean your house (a hotel does it daily) maintance people to care for the yard, and security to protect the place and this investment is really getting expensive. Plus, the dollar is at all time low’s. Who is to say that in 3-7 years it wont have gone up against some of these other currencies, then where are they? Dont believe me, how many people accuratly thought that the dollar/Euro excange would be 1.5/1 now back in 2000? Not many.
So I guess it comes down to a look at me know factor. There are plenty of people in the world with the resources to pay for all the costs plus the real estate back in 2005, let alone today. If they want to show that they have made it, they can buy and enjoy. Some will. But usually these people have those kinda resources for a reason, and ego boosting isnt usually high on that list of reasons. I just think that the number choosing the ego boost wont be enough to save this market. What I really think is happening/being detected is the leftovers from the party. Some people missed the boat and think this is their second chance to ride the real estate wave. Unless they are looking for a long term retreat (read 10 years+), it isnt. Besides shopping trips to New York are a much bigger and more showy ego boost that doesnt have nearly the overhead costs.

[DWCAP]

Also, I am shocked at how many foreign buyers seem to want to own USA real estate. I dont care what they are paying for taxes in their home countries, they are paying property taxes, HOA’s, Mello Roo’s are a bunch of other taxes and fees on a depreciating asset. Plus with the doller falling so low already, I cant imagine it falling too much more before these international multimillionares feel the pain that comes with it. So basiclly they are gonna plop down a few mill, on a house that is loosing value and projected to loose value, and is in a foreign country that they will only spend a minority of the year in.
I dont dispute that they CANT buy, I am sure they can pick up two or three if they really wanted, but why should they? Rent a suite in Coronado or in La Jolla for a month for what they would pay in property taxes every year and let someone else take the depreciation and maintance costs. Add in a personal maid to clean your house (a hotel does it daily) maintance people to care for the yard, and security to protect the place and this investment is really getting expensive. Plus, the dollar is at all time low’s. Who is to say that in 3-7 years it wont have gone up against some of these other currencies, then where are they? Dont believe me, how many people accuratly thought that the dollar/Euro excange would be 1.5/1 now back in 2000? Not many.
So I guess it comes down to a look at me know factor. There are plenty of people in the world with the resources to pay for all the costs plus the real estate back in 2005, let alone today. If they want to show that they have made it, they can buy and enjoy. Some will. But usually these people have those kinda resources for a reason, and ego boosting isnt usually high on that list of reasons. I just think that the number choosing the ego boost wont be enough to save this market. What I really think is happening/being detected is the leftovers from the party. Some people missed the boat and think this is their second chance to ride the real estate wave. Unless they are looking for a long term retreat (read 10 years+), it isnt. Besides shopping trips to New York are a much bigger and more showy ego boost that doesnt have nearly the overhead costs.

[Coronita]

Just to revive this thread. According to SDR, unless there was a typo on a previous thread. This thing currently has 14 offers???

 

You know… The old familiar thing which the seller responds to you

 

"This is a multiple counter offer situation….<term 1>, <term 2>,<term 3>…"

 

So much for  "not buying this until the price hits $750k". 

 

[img_assist|nid=5962|title=selfportrait|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=100|height=80]

—– Sour grapes for everyone!

[SD Realtor]

No typo in the current thread FLU. They had just updated the MLS after they received more offers. The timeline of them updating the MLS made it look funky.

So yeah right now they are at 14 and have countered everyone. From that point they will take the best and most qualified offer.

SD Realtor

[[email protected]]

Carmel Valley still seems like a hot market. Derby Hill sold out it’s last release in December on the day of release and another release is scheduled for January 19th. The first re-sales are coming out in Derby Hill and the owners feel confident to ask $1.59-1.69 for a Plan 2 and $1.299 (FSBO) for a Plan 1. There are also at least two Saratoga resales, too, at $1.1-$1.25 and $1.15 (both the largest Plan 3’s). It seems to me that Carmel Country Highlands continues to hold strong.

[Coronita]

Ilcv,

I call bullsxxt on that one. The overpriced saratoga one you speak of has been on the market for hoe many days?

People can ask for whatever they want. Its the sell that counts.

[img_assist|nid=5962|title=selfportrait|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=100|height=80]

—– Sour grapes for everyone!

[Eugene]

“I am shocked at how many foreign buyers seem to want to own USA real estate.”

I see where you’re coming from but there’s one problem.

Foreign buyers aren’t snapping up McMansions in Florida to such an extent as to stop the bubble from collapsing. And Florida has some enormous advantages over San Diego for a prospective foreign vacation property buyer:

– About two times cheaper (median SFR in 300’s in Miami, low 200’s in Tampa)

– WARM OCEAN (low 70’s in December!)

– Direct 8-9 hour flights connecting Miami with London and Paris

Once we hear about rich Brits reversing the decline in Miami, I’ll start worrying about San Diego.

[Eugene]

Regarding the REO on Mesa Norte

It’s amazing. They had 4 acres to work with and they couldn’t find enough room to put in a proper driveway. You can’t make a u-turn in that driveway without hitting a wall or getting into a flowerbed. You’ll have to drive 200 feet backwards from the garage to the street.

I’d expect a little more consideration to be put into building a 2 million home.

[Eugene]

Regarding the REO on Mesa Norte

It’s amazing. They had 4 acres to work with and they couldn’t find enough room to put in a proper driveway. You can’t make a u-turn in that driveway without hitting a wall or getting into a flowerbed. You’ll have to drive 200 feet backwards from the garage to the street.

I’d expect a little more consideration to be put into building a 2 million home.

[Eugene]

Regarding the REO on Mesa Norte

It’s amazing. They had 4 acres to work with and they couldn’t find enough room to put in a proper driveway. You can’t make a u-turn in that driveway without hitting a wall or getting into a flowerbed. You’ll have to drive 200 feet backwards from the garage to the street.

I’d expect a little more consideration to be put into building a 2 million home.

[Eugene]

Regarding the REO on Mesa Norte

It’s amazing. They had 4 acres to work with and they couldn’t find enough room to put in a proper driveway. You can’t make a u-turn in that driveway without hitting a wall or getting into a flowerbed. You’ll have to drive 200 feet backwards from the garage to the street.

I’d expect a little more consideration to be put into building a 2 million home.

[Eugene]

Regarding the REO on Mesa Norte

It’s amazing. They had 4 acres to work with and they couldn’t find enough room to put in a proper driveway. You can’t make a u-turn in that driveway without hitting a wall or getting into a flowerbed. You’ll have to drive 200 feet backwards from the garage to the street.

I’d expect a little more consideration to be put into building a 2 million home.

[Eugene]

“I am shocked at how many foreign buyers seem to want to own USA real estate.”

I see where you’re coming from but there’s one problem.

Foreign buyers aren’t snapping up McMansions in Florida to such an extent as to stop the bubble from collapsing. And Florida has some enormous advantages over San Diego for a prospective foreign vacation property buyer:

– About two times cheaper (median SFR in 300’s in Miami, low 200’s in Tampa)

– WARM OCEAN (low 70’s in December!)

– Direct 8-9 hour flights connecting Miami with London and Paris

Once we hear about rich Brits reversing the decline in Miami, I’ll start worrying about San Diego.

[Eugene]

“I am shocked at how many foreign buyers seem to want to own USA real estate.”

I see where you’re coming from but there’s one problem.

Foreign buyers aren’t snapping up McMansions in Florida to such an extent as to stop the bubble from collapsing. And Florida has some enormous advantages over San Diego for a prospective foreign vacation property buyer:

– About two times cheaper (median SFR in 300’s in Miami, low 200’s in Tampa)

– WARM OCEAN (low 70’s in December!)

– Direct 8-9 hour flights connecting Miami with London and Paris

Once we hear about rich Brits reversing the decline in Miami, I’ll start worrying about San Diego.

[Eugene]

“I am shocked at how many foreign buyers seem to want to own USA real estate.”

I see where you’re coming from but there’s one problem.

Foreign buyers aren’t snapping up McMansions in Florida to such an extent as to stop the bubble from collapsing. And Florida has some enormous advantages over San Diego for a prospective foreign vacation property buyer:

– About two times cheaper (median SFR in 300’s in Miami, low 200’s in Tampa)

– WARM OCEAN (low 70’s in December!)

– Direct 8-9 hour flights connecting Miami with London and Paris

Once we hear about rich Brits reversing the decline in Miami, I’ll start worrying about San Diego.

[Eugene]

“I am shocked at how many foreign buyers seem to want to own USA real estate.”

I see where you’re coming from but there’s one problem.

Foreign buyers aren’t snapping up McMansions in Florida to such an extent as to stop the bubble from collapsing. And Florida has some enormous advantages over San Diego for a prospective foreign vacation property buyer:

– About two times cheaper (median SFR in 300’s in Miami, low 200’s in Tampa)

– WARM OCEAN (low 70’s in December!)

– Direct 8-9 hour flights connecting Miami with London and Paris

Once we hear about rich Brits reversing the decline in Miami, I’ll start worrying about San Diego.

[Coronita]

Ilcv,

I call bullsxxt on that one. The overpriced saratoga one you speak of has been on the market for hoe many days?

People can ask for whatever they want. Its the sell that counts.

[img_assist|nid=5962|title=selfportrait|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=100|height=80]

—– Sour grapes for everyone!

[Coronita]

Ilcv,

I call bullsxxt on that one. The overpriced saratoga one you speak of has been on the market for hoe many days?

People can ask for whatever they want. Its the sell that counts.

[img_assist|nid=5962|title=selfportrait|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=100|height=80]

—– Sour grapes for everyone!

[Coronita]

Ilcv,

I call bullsxxt on that one. The overpriced saratoga one you speak of has been on the market for hoe many days?

People can ask for whatever they want. Its the sell that counts.

[img_assist|nid=5962|title=selfportrait|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=100|height=80]

—– Sour grapes for everyone!

[Coronita]

Ilcv,

I call bullsxxt on that one. The overpriced saratoga one you speak of has been on the market for hoe many days?

People can ask for whatever they want. Its the sell that counts.

[img_assist|nid=5962|title=selfportrait|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=100|height=80]

—– Sour grapes for everyone!

[[email protected]]

Carmel Valley still seems like a hot market. Derby Hill sold out it’s last release in December on the day of release and another release is scheduled for January 19th. The first re-sales are coming out in Derby Hill and the owners feel confident to ask $1.59-1.69 for a Plan 2 and $1.299 (FSBO) for a Plan 1. There are also at least two Saratoga resales, too, at $1.1-$1.25 and $1.15 (both the largest Plan 3’s). It seems to me that Carmel Country Highlands continues to hold strong.

[[email protected]]

Carmel Valley still seems like a hot market. Derby Hill sold out it’s last release in December on the day of release and another release is scheduled for January 19th. The first re-sales are coming out in Derby Hill and the owners feel confident to ask $1.59-1.69 for a Plan 2 and $1.299 (FSBO) for a Plan 1. There are also at least two Saratoga resales, too, at $1.1-$1.25 and $1.15 (both the largest Plan 3’s). It seems to me that Carmel Country Highlands continues to hold strong.

[[email protected]]

Carmel Valley still seems like a hot market. Derby Hill sold out it’s last release in December on the day of release and another release is scheduled for January 19th. The first re-sales are coming out in Derby Hill and the owners feel confident to ask $1.59-1.69 for a Plan 2 and $1.299 (FSBO) for a Plan 1. There are also at least two Saratoga resales, too, at $1.1-$1.25 and $1.15 (both the largest Plan 3’s). It seems to me that Carmel Country Highlands continues to hold strong.

[[email protected]]

Carmel Valley still seems like a hot market. Derby Hill sold out it’s last release in December on the day of release and another release is scheduled for January 19th. The first re-sales are coming out in Derby Hill and the owners feel confident to ask $1.59-1.69 for a Plan 2 and $1.299 (FSBO) for a Plan 1. There are also at least two Saratoga resales, too, at $1.1-$1.25 and $1.15 (both the largest Plan 3’s). It seems to me that Carmel Country Highlands continues to hold strong.

[SD Realtor]

No typo in the current thread FLU. They had just updated the MLS after they received more offers. The timeline of them updating the MLS made it look funky.

So yeah right now they are at 14 and have countered everyone. From that point they will take the best and most qualified offer.

SD Realtor

[SD Realtor]

No typo in the current thread FLU. They had just updated the MLS after they received more offers. The timeline of them updating the MLS made it look funky.

So yeah right now they are at 14 and have countered everyone. From that point they will take the best and most qualified offer.

SD Realtor

[SD Realtor]

No typo in the current thread FLU. They had just updated the MLS after they received more offers. The timeline of them updating the MLS made it look funky.

So yeah right now they are at 14 and have countered everyone. From that point they will take the best and most qualified offer.

SD Realtor

[SD Realtor]

No typo in the current thread FLU. They had just updated the MLS after they received more offers. The timeline of them updating the MLS made it look funky.

So yeah right now they are at 14 and have countered everyone. From that point they will take the best and most qualified offer.

SD Realtor

[Coronita]

Just to revive this thread. According to SDR, unless there was a typo on a previous thread. This thing currently has 14 offers???

 

You know… The old familiar thing which the seller responds to you

 

"This is a multiple counter offer situation….<term 1>, <term 2>,<term 3>…"

 

So much for  "not buying this until the price hits $750k". 

 

[img_assist|nid=5962|title=selfportrait|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=100|height=80]

—– Sour grapes for everyone!

[Coronita]

Just to revive this thread. According to SDR, unless there was a typo on a previous thread. This thing currently has 14 offers???

 

You know… The old familiar thing which the seller responds to you

 

"This is a multiple counter offer situation….<term 1>, <term 2>,<term 3>…"

 

So much for  "not buying this until the price hits $750k". 

 

[img_assist|nid=5962|title=selfportrait|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=100|height=80]

—– Sour grapes for everyone!

[Coronita]

Just to revive this thread. According to SDR, unless there was a typo on a previous thread. This thing currently has 14 offers???

 

You know… The old familiar thing which the seller responds to you

 

"This is a multiple counter offer situation….<term 1>, <term 2>,<term 3>…"

 

So much for  "not buying this until the price hits $750k". 

 

[img_assist|nid=5962|title=selfportrait|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=100|height=80]

—– Sour grapes for everyone!

[Coronita]

Just to revive this thread. According to SDR, unless there was a typo on a previous thread. This thing currently has 14 offers???

 

You know… The old familiar thing which the seller responds to you

 

"This is a multiple counter offer situation….<term 1>, <term 2>,<term 3>…"

 

So much for  "not buying this until the price hits $750k". 

 

[img_assist|nid=5962|title=selfportrait|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=100|height=80]

—– Sour grapes for everyone!

[New_Renter]

So much for selling the Mesa Norte REO. I believe a few weeks ago SD Realtor let us know there were three offers on the Mesa Norte REO and then it quickly went pending. Well guess what, it’s baaaaack…..

http://www.sdlookup.com/MLS-081001736-6473_Mesa_Norte_Dr_San_Diego_CA_92130

And it’s back at the same price as before. You would think this agent might try a lower price this time around….

New_Renter

[New_Renter]

So much for selling the Mesa Norte REO. I believe a few weeks ago SD Realtor let us know there were three offers on the Mesa Norte REO and then it quickly went pending. Well guess what, it’s baaaaack…..

http://www.sdlookup.com/MLS-081001736-6473_Mesa_Norte_Dr_San_Diego_CA_92130

And it’s back at the same price as before. You would think this agent might try a lower price this time around….

New_Renter

[New_Renter]

So much for selling the Mesa Norte REO. I believe a few weeks ago SD Realtor let us know there were three offers on the Mesa Norte REO and then it quickly went pending. Well guess what, it’s baaaaack…..

http://www.sdlookup.com/MLS-081001736-6473_Mesa_Norte_Dr_San_Diego_CA_92130

And it’s back at the same price as before. You would think this agent might try a lower price this time around….

New_Renter

[New_Renter]

So much for selling the Mesa Norte REO. I believe a few weeks ago SD Realtor let us know there were three offers on the Mesa Norte REO and then it quickly went pending. Well guess what, it’s baaaaack…..

http://www.sdlookup.com/MLS-081001736-6473_Mesa_Norte_Dr_San_Diego_CA_92130

And it’s back at the same price as before. You would think this agent might try a lower price this time around….

New_Renter

[New_Renter]

So much for selling the Mesa Norte REO. I believe a few weeks ago SD Realtor let us know there were three offers on the Mesa Norte REO and then it quickly went pending. Well guess what, it’s baaaaack…..

http://www.sdlookup.com/MLS-081001736-6473_Mesa_Norte_Dr_San_Diego_CA_92130

And it’s back at the same price as before. You would think this agent might try a lower price this time around….

New_Renter

[Author]

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