Massive 26% Markdown on Carmel Valley McMansion

[jonnycsd]

One thought on the type of person who would put $300K into a $2MM home then walk away – a bubble industry person who earned commission – like a MORTGAGE BROKER. Extremely high income the last few years but recently many of them have lost thier jobs or at least commissions. They should have read Pigginton. Lets hear a piggy cheer for the brokers’ bleeding. Those jerks made money by making it WAY to easy for people to buy homes. (Sarcasm intentional).

Mr. Wrong, yes, many posters here are emmotionally invested in the “rightness” of thier bearish predictions even if the predictions are based on reasonable objective analysis. And the piggers tend to attack those who contradict the party line – even though some versions are extreme (c’mon piggers – forget about a 60% price cut accross the board in nominal dollar terms – it will never happen. “The system” – congress, wall street, the Fed, and voters – will not allow it to happen – who ever is waiting for that outcome will be waiting forever or until thier naivete wears off).

Piggington is not a professional investors board, it is more like a dog fight and the crowd has already picked the winning dog. The bleeding (and the cheering) will continue. Interfere with schadenfruede on this board at your own peril.

[DWCAP]

I wanted to clarify what I just said. I am not saying MrWong is saying the NAR motto. What I am saying is that these option ARMs are gonna force must sell inventory onto the market. This must sell is gonna go for a larger drop than just a few percent. This is where the “It isnt different here” is coming from, must sells hurting the market. I dont mean to be harsh to MrWong. I had trouble disputing his numbers cept to say that 5-6% Yr over yr appreciation for housing seems high. If I can make that in a tax advantaged leveraged home, why ever buy a bond again?
-20% feels better to me. Million dollar morgage, reduced to 800k, with low interest rates and 3-4 years of wage inflation is going to be alot more doable by a large enough segment of the population to justify the premiums of CV. But I can be wrong, I did just discuss that I really dont have a grasp on buyer psycology. Plus we do agree that these declines will happen at in a few years, not this year. A lot can happen “in a few years”.

[DWCAP]

I wanted to clarify what I just said. I am not saying MrWong is saying the NAR motto. What I am saying is that these option ARMs are gonna force must sell inventory onto the market. This must sell is gonna go for a larger drop than just a few percent. This is where the “It isnt different here” is coming from, must sells hurting the market. I dont mean to be harsh to MrWong. I had trouble disputing his numbers cept to say that 5-6% Yr over yr appreciation for housing seems high. If I can make that in a tax advantaged leveraged home, why ever buy a bond again?
-20% feels better to me. Million dollar morgage, reduced to 800k, with low interest rates and 3-4 years of wage inflation is going to be alot more doable by a large enough segment of the population to justify the premiums of CV. But I can be wrong, I did just discuss that I really dont have a grasp on buyer psycology. Plus we do agree that these declines will happen at in a few years, not this year. A lot can happen “in a few years”.

[DWCAP]

I wanted to clarify what I just said. I am not saying MrWong is saying the NAR motto. What I am saying is that these option ARMs are gonna force must sell inventory onto the market. This must sell is gonna go for a larger drop than just a few percent. This is where the “It isnt different here” is coming from, must sells hurting the market. I dont mean to be harsh to MrWong. I had trouble disputing his numbers cept to say that 5-6% Yr over yr appreciation for housing seems high. If I can make that in a tax advantaged leveraged home, why ever buy a bond again?
-20% feels better to me. Million dollar morgage, reduced to 800k, with low interest rates and 3-4 years of wage inflation is going to be alot more doable by a large enough segment of the population to justify the premiums of CV. But I can be wrong, I did just discuss that I really dont have a grasp on buyer psycology. Plus we do agree that these declines will happen at in a few years, not this year. A lot can happen “in a few years”.

[DWCAP]

I wanted to clarify what I just said. I am not saying MrWong is saying the NAR motto. What I am saying is that these option ARMs are gonna force must sell inventory onto the market. This must sell is gonna go for a larger drop than just a few percent. This is where the “It isnt different here” is coming from, must sells hurting the market. I dont mean to be harsh to MrWong. I had trouble disputing his numbers cept to say that 5-6% Yr over yr appreciation for housing seems high. If I can make that in a tax advantaged leveraged home, why ever buy a bond again?
-20% feels better to me. Million dollar morgage, reduced to 800k, with low interest rates and 3-4 years of wage inflation is going to be alot more doable by a large enough segment of the population to justify the premiums of CV. But I can be wrong, I did just discuss that I really dont have a grasp on buyer psycology. Plus we do agree that these declines will happen at in a few years, not this year. A lot can happen “in a few years”.

[DWCAP]

I wanted to clarify what I just said. I am not saying MrWong is saying the NAR motto. What I am saying is that these option ARMs are gonna force must sell inventory onto the market. This must sell is gonna go for a larger drop than just a few percent. This is where the “It isnt different here” is coming from, must sells hurting the market. I dont mean to be harsh to MrWong. I had trouble disputing his numbers cept to say that 5-6% Yr over yr appreciation for housing seems high. If I can make that in a tax advantaged leveraged home, why ever buy a bond again?
-20% feels better to me. Million dollar morgage, reduced to 800k, with low interest rates and 3-4 years of wage inflation is going to be alot more doable by a large enough segment of the population to justify the premiums of CV. But I can be wrong, I did just discuss that I really dont have a grasp on buyer psycology. Plus we do agree that these declines will happen at in a few years, not this year. A lot can happen “in a few years”.

[DWCAP]

SD Realtor,

It seems hard to believe that 25000 homes sold in 2007, but then that is basically 2000 a month. Somehow that sounds different. Also, how many sold in the last six months? I know that is traditionally the slow time, but that is also the time when a 0% down subprime jumbo loan wasnt available to anyone with a pulse. 2007 started out fine, it was the last 3 months that really took it in the ass. If housing had limped along like it had in the first three months, how many talking heads would be calling down the thunder on anyone who dared to challenge their mastery of the real estate market? Alot more than there are now trying to deflect criticism about the “now is the time to buy” mantra. I guess the thing to remember is that realestate never goes to zero, it is the momentum that counts. Am I wrong?

[DWCAP]

SD Realtor,

It seems hard to believe that 25000 homes sold in 2007, but then that is basically 2000 a month. Somehow that sounds different. Also, how many sold in the last six months? I know that is traditionally the slow time, but that is also the time when a 0% down subprime jumbo loan wasnt available to anyone with a pulse. 2007 started out fine, it was the last 3 months that really took it in the ass. If housing had limped along like it had in the first three months, how many talking heads would be calling down the thunder on anyone who dared to challenge their mastery of the real estate market? Alot more than there are now trying to deflect criticism about the “now is the time to buy” mantra. I guess the thing to remember is that realestate never goes to zero, it is the momentum that counts. Am I wrong?

[DWCAP]

SD Realtor,

It seems hard to believe that 25000 homes sold in 2007, but then that is basically 2000 a month. Somehow that sounds different. Also, how many sold in the last six months? I know that is traditionally the slow time, but that is also the time when a 0% down subprime jumbo loan wasnt available to anyone with a pulse. 2007 started out fine, it was the last 3 months that really took it in the ass. If housing had limped along like it had in the first three months, how many talking heads would be calling down the thunder on anyone who dared to challenge their mastery of the real estate market? Alot more than there are now trying to deflect criticism about the “now is the time to buy” mantra. I guess the thing to remember is that realestate never goes to zero, it is the momentum that counts. Am I wrong?

[DWCAP]

SD Realtor,

It seems hard to believe that 25000 homes sold in 2007, but then that is basically 2000 a month. Somehow that sounds different. Also, how many sold in the last six months? I know that is traditionally the slow time, but that is also the time when a 0% down subprime jumbo loan wasnt available to anyone with a pulse. 2007 started out fine, it was the last 3 months that really took it in the ass. If housing had limped along like it had in the first three months, how many talking heads would be calling down the thunder on anyone who dared to challenge their mastery of the real estate market? Alot more than there are now trying to deflect criticism about the “now is the time to buy” mantra. I guess the thing to remember is that realestate never goes to zero, it is the momentum that counts. Am I wrong?

[DWCAP]

SD Realtor,

It seems hard to believe that 25000 homes sold in 2007, but then that is basically 2000 a month. Somehow that sounds different. Also, how many sold in the last six months? I know that is traditionally the slow time, but that is also the time when a 0% down subprime jumbo loan wasnt available to anyone with a pulse. 2007 started out fine, it was the last 3 months that really took it in the ass. If housing had limped along like it had in the first three months, how many talking heads would be calling down the thunder on anyone who dared to challenge their mastery of the real estate market? Alot more than there are now trying to deflect criticism about the “now is the time to buy” mantra. I guess the thing to remember is that realestate never goes to zero, it is the momentum that counts. Am I wrong?

[raptorduck]

I can only look at myself to evaluate this emotion vs. logic argument.

As a likely 2008 buyer I came to this site last year because I finally found folks not brainwashed by the real estate industry who show me the other side of the home ownership equation.

I like that this site focuses more on the logic than the emotion. I have pleanty of the emotion. My wife, she is all emotion when it comes to buying a home. “The hell with logic” she says, “I wan’t my damn house, of the size and style I want, and I want to do what I want with it without having to ask a landlord and I don’t want to worry about the owner selling and making me give up the home I worked hard to create” yada yada.

My emotion is simple, I am looking for a home, not an investment. But the logical side of me says don’t overpay because you just never know what life brings. The logical side says, be patient. This site has helped me remain patient.

To me, buying a home is very emotional. I can crunch numbers until I turn blue, but in the end emotion is at least half the equation. The trick is to ensure it is 49% and no more so logic will prevail. That is all I need. Emotion is ok. I want to walk into a home and say “wow, this is my dream home, I wan’t to grow old here and raise children here.” I want to see my wife tear up. Once I see that then I can let the logic in me drive the deal and have enough input to walk away if the price is too high and hope for another emotional reaction to a possible abode.

Buyers can be unpredictable with their emotions, with one house in SD, I was. But I think sellers are even more unpredictable. Their emotional attachments to their homes and their value are making for some long long days on market while they wait for that buyer that never comes.

There is a home up here I have discussed before. 4,600 sf listing for $4.4M, the same price it first listed for 1 yr ago. Larger homes on the same street are selling for $500k-$1M less. You see, that seller bought it at the peak of the market for $3.4M and then put $1M into it. So in their eyes, they are being very reasonable considering the market and just trying to break even (which we all know is already not the case at that price, it is still a loss). They will absolutely refuse to lower it one penny despite its actual value being about $3.5-$3.6M now. They are emotionally tied into it and that emotion is controlling any logic. The consequence is >1yr on the market and 2 offers in all of that time, both of which came in the first month of listing and were around $4M or slighly less. I think if they drop the price under $4M it might sell, but they won’t.

To me, it is sellers that are the most emotional right now and their emotions are rulling the day. And to me, that is what one should expect in a “buyers” market. Buyers can afford to be logical in this market. When I bought my current house during a market peak in 2000, it was buyers who were more emotional and their emotions were running the day. I am to be included among them. I overpaid by $100k for my house back then. Sellers were the logical ones, the patient ones.

The odd thing is that buyers were just crazed to buy anything at any cost in that “sellers” market. So you would expect that sellers are crazed to sell at any price in a “buyers” market. But what I see is that they refuse to sell at “any” price. So sticky prices on the way down. This suggests to me that downturns run longer life cycles than housing booms. Curious.

BTW, I think that CV house is priced about right based on what I know about CV in this market. I suspect it will sell, even without the landscaping. CV is still in demand by families and that is a good size house for that price compared to what you can normally get in CV, which is less house for not that much less money than this one.

Just my 2 cent

Future resident of RSF, dunno which part yet.

[raptorduck]

I can only look at myself to evaluate this emotion vs. logic argument.

As a likely 2008 buyer I came to this site last year because I finally found folks not brainwashed by the real estate industry who show me the other side of the home ownership equation.

I like that this site focuses more on the logic than the emotion. I have pleanty of the emotion. My wife, she is all emotion when it comes to buying a home. “The hell with logic” she says, “I wan’t my damn house, of the size and style I want, and I want to do what I want with it without having to ask a landlord and I don’t want to worry about the owner selling and making me give up the home I worked hard to create” yada yada.

My emotion is simple, I am looking for a home, not an investment. But the logical side of me says don’t overpay because you just never know what life brings. The logical side says, be patient. This site has helped me remain patient.

To me, buying a home is very emotional. I can crunch numbers until I turn blue, but in the end emotion is at least half the equation. The trick is to ensure it is 49% and no more so logic will prevail. That is all I need. Emotion is ok. I want to walk into a home and say “wow, this is my dream home, I wan’t to grow old here and raise children here.” I want to see my wife tear up. Once I see that then I can let the logic in me drive the deal and have enough input to walk away if the price is too high and hope for another emotional reaction to a possible abode.

Buyers can be unpredictable with their emotions, with one house in SD, I was. But I think sellers are even more unpredictable. Their emotional attachments to their homes and their value are making for some long long days on market while they wait for that buyer that never comes.

There is a home up here I have discussed before. 4,600 sf listing for $4.4M, the same price it first listed for 1 yr ago. Larger homes on the same street are selling for $500k-$1M less. You see, that seller bought it at the peak of the market for $3.4M and then put $1M into it. So in their eyes, they are being very reasonable considering the market and just trying to break even (which we all know is already not the case at that price, it is still a loss). They will absolutely refuse to lower it one penny despite its actual value being about $3.5-$3.6M now. They are emotionally tied into it and that emotion is controlling any logic. The consequence is >1yr on the market and 2 offers in all of that time, both of which came in the first month of listing and were around $4M or slighly less. I think if they drop the price under $4M it might sell, but they won’t.

To me, it is sellers that are the most emotional right now and their emotions are rulling the day. And to me, that is what one should expect in a “buyers” market. Buyers can afford to be logical in this market. When I bought my current house during a market peak in 2000, it was buyers who were more emotional and their emotions were running the day. I am to be included among them. I overpaid by $100k for my house back then. Sellers were the logical ones, the patient ones.

The odd thing is that buyers were just crazed to buy anything at any cost in that “sellers” market. So you would expect that sellers are crazed to sell at any price in a “buyers” market. But what I see is that they refuse to sell at “any” price. So sticky prices on the way down. This suggests to me that downturns run longer life cycles than housing booms. Curious.

BTW, I think that CV house is priced about right based on what I know about CV in this market. I suspect it will sell, even without the landscaping. CV is still in demand by families and that is a good size house for that price compared to what you can normally get in CV, which is less house for not that much less money than this one.

Just my 2 cent

Future resident of RSF, dunno which part yet.

[raptorduck]

I can only look at myself to evaluate this emotion vs. logic argument.

As a likely 2008 buyer I came to this site last year because I finally found folks not brainwashed by the real estate industry who show me the other side of the home ownership equation.

I like that this site focuses more on the logic than the emotion. I have pleanty of the emotion. My wife, she is all emotion when it comes to buying a home. “The hell with logic” she says, “I wan’t my damn house, of the size and style I want, and I want to do what I want with it without having to ask a landlord and I don’t want to worry about the owner selling and making me give up the home I worked hard to create” yada yada.

My emotion is simple, I am looking for a home, not an investment. But the logical side of me says don’t overpay because you just never know what life brings. The logical side says, be patient. This site has helped me remain patient.

To me, buying a home is very emotional. I can crunch numbers until I turn blue, but in the end emotion is at least half the equation. The trick is to ensure it is 49% and no more so logic will prevail. That is all I need. Emotion is ok. I want to walk into a home and say “wow, this is my dream home, I wan’t to grow old here and raise children here.” I want to see my wife tear up. Once I see that then I can let the logic in me drive the deal and have enough input to walk away if the price is too high and hope for another emotional reaction to a possible abode.

Buyers can be unpredictable with their emotions, with one house in SD, I was. But I think sellers are even more unpredictable. Their emotional attachments to their homes and their value are making for some long long days on market while they wait for that buyer that never comes.

There is a home up here I have discussed before. 4,600 sf listing for $4.4M, the same price it first listed for 1 yr ago. Larger homes on the same street are selling for $500k-$1M less. You see, that seller bought it at the peak of the market for $3.4M and then put $1M into it. So in their eyes, they are being very reasonable considering the market and just trying to break even (which we all know is already not the case at that price, it is still a loss). They will absolutely refuse to lower it one penny despite its actual value being about $3.5-$3.6M now. They are emotionally tied into it and that emotion is controlling any logic. The consequence is >1yr on the market and 2 offers in all of that time, both of which came in the first month of listing and were around $4M or slighly less. I think if they drop the price under $4M it might sell, but they won’t.

To me, it is sellers that are the most emotional right now and their emotions are rulling the day. And to me, that is what one should expect in a “buyers” market. Buyers can afford to be logical in this market. When I bought my current house during a market peak in 2000, it was buyers who were more emotional and their emotions were running the day. I am to be included among them. I overpaid by $100k for my house back then. Sellers were the logical ones, the patient ones.

The odd thing is that buyers were just crazed to buy anything at any cost in that “sellers” market. So you would expect that sellers are crazed to sell at any price in a “buyers” market. But what I see is that they refuse to sell at “any” price. So sticky prices on the way down. This suggests to me that downturns run longer life cycles than housing booms. Curious.

BTW, I think that CV house is priced about right based on what I know about CV in this market. I suspect it will sell, even without the landscaping. CV is still in demand by families and that is a good size house for that price compared to what you can normally get in CV, which is less house for not that much less money than this one.

Just my 2 cent

Future resident of RSF, dunno which part yet.

[raptorduck]

I can only look at myself to evaluate this emotion vs. logic argument.

As a likely 2008 buyer I came to this site last year because I finally found folks not brainwashed by the real estate industry who show me the other side of the home ownership equation.

I like that this site focuses more on the logic than the emotion. I have pleanty of the emotion. My wife, she is all emotion when it comes to buying a home. “The hell with logic” she says, “I wan’t my damn house, of the size and style I want, and I want to do what I want with it without having to ask a landlord and I don’t want to worry about the owner selling and making me give up the home I worked hard to create” yada yada.

My emotion is simple, I am looking for a home, not an investment. But the logical side of me says don’t overpay because you just never know what life brings. The logical side says, be patient. This site has helped me remain patient.

To me, buying a home is very emotional. I can crunch numbers until I turn blue, but in the end emotion is at least half the equation. The trick is to ensure it is 49% and no more so logic will prevail. That is all I need. Emotion is ok. I want to walk into a home and say “wow, this is my dream home, I wan’t to grow old here and raise children here.” I want to see my wife tear up. Once I see that then I can let the logic in me drive the deal and have enough input to walk away if the price is too high and hope for another emotional reaction to a possible abode.

Buyers can be unpredictable with their emotions, with one house in SD, I was. But I think sellers are even more unpredictable. Their emotional attachments to their homes and their value are making for some long long days on market while they wait for that buyer that never comes.

There is a home up here I have discussed before. 4,600 sf listing for $4.4M, the same price it first listed for 1 yr ago. Larger homes on the same street are selling for $500k-$1M less. You see, that seller bought it at the peak of the market for $3.4M and then put $1M into it. So in their eyes, they are being very reasonable considering the market and just trying to break even (which we all know is already not the case at that price, it is still a loss). They will absolutely refuse to lower it one penny despite its actual value being about $3.5-$3.6M now. They are emotionally tied into it and that emotion is controlling any logic. The consequence is >1yr on the market and 2 offers in all of that time, both of which came in the first month of listing and were around $4M or slighly less. I think if they drop the price under $4M it might sell, but they won’t.

To me, it is sellers that are the most emotional right now and their emotions are rulling the day. And to me, that is what one should expect in a “buyers” market. Buyers can afford to be logical in this market. When I bought my current house during a market peak in 2000, it was buyers who were more emotional and their emotions were running the day. I am to be included among them. I overpaid by $100k for my house back then. Sellers were the logical ones, the patient ones.

The odd thing is that buyers were just crazed to buy anything at any cost in that “sellers” market. So you would expect that sellers are crazed to sell at any price in a “buyers” market. But what I see is that they refuse to sell at “any” price. So sticky prices on the way down. This suggests to me that downturns run longer life cycles than housing booms. Curious.

BTW, I think that CV house is priced about right based on what I know about CV in this market. I suspect it will sell, even without the landscaping. CV is still in demand by families and that is a good size house for that price compared to what you can normally get in CV, which is less house for not that much less money than this one.

Just my 2 cent

Future resident of RSF, dunno which part yet.

[Author]

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