Let’s speculate effect of a massive earthquake on RE and CA economy.

[patb]

actually Big quake is great.

supply is fonstrained

prices rise,

Look at new orleans.

[temeculaguy]

[quote=threadkiller]San Diego appears to be safe but Temecula not so much, [/quote]

That made me do about thirty minutes of research, thankfully it turns out we’re fine up here. Temec isn’t actually on the San Andreas fault, it takes an eastward turn about 60 miles north and swings east of Palm Springs. The study that made the prediction of 90+% of a big one also predicted temecula’s risk is cut in half from earlier predictions (it’s on page 4, where it adresses the elsinore fault)

http://pubs.usgs.gov/fs/2008/3027/fs2008-3027.pdf

“Quake probabilities for many parts of the State are similar to those in previous studies, but the new probabilities for the Elsinore and San Jacinto Faults in southern California are about half those previously determined.”

That quote essentiallys says that their new study is the same as their old study except you can cut the risk of the elsinore fault in half, everything else is the same. Temecula sits on the Elsinore Fault, as does mt palomar, valley center and Julian. None of the places on the elsinore fault have tall buildings, it’s all little towns, which fare better in quakes.

But now that I’ve done the research, I feel better. Now as far as the probabilities, looks like L.A. or S.F. according to the usgs prediction maps and unfortunately, those are the two that are the most densely populated, have the oldest infrastructure and are the most vital to the economy. Let’s hope the retrofit work helps out, because it will probably happen.

[temeculaguy]

[quote=threadkiller]San Diego appears to be safe but Temecula not so much, [/quote]

That made me do about thirty minutes of research, thankfully it turns out we’re fine up here. Temec isn’t actually on the San Andreas fault, it takes an eastward turn about 60 miles north and swings east of Palm Springs. The study that made the prediction of 90+% of a big one also predicted temecula’s risk is cut in half from earlier predictions (it’s on page 4, where it adresses the elsinore fault)

http://pubs.usgs.gov/fs/2008/3027/fs2008-3027.pdf

“Quake probabilities for many parts of the State are similar to those in previous studies, but the new probabilities for the Elsinore and San Jacinto Faults in southern California are about half those previously determined.”

That quote essentiallys says that their new study is the same as their old study except you can cut the risk of the elsinore fault in half, everything else is the same. Temecula sits on the Elsinore Fault, as does mt palomar, valley center and Julian. None of the places on the elsinore fault have tall buildings, it’s all little towns, which fare better in quakes.

But now that I’ve done the research, I feel better. Now as far as the probabilities, looks like L.A. or S.F. according to the usgs prediction maps and unfortunately, those are the two that are the most densely populated, have the oldest infrastructure and are the most vital to the economy. Let’s hope the retrofit work helps out, because it will probably happen.

[temeculaguy]

[quote=threadkiller]San Diego appears to be safe but Temecula not so much, [/quote]

That made me do about thirty minutes of research, thankfully it turns out we’re fine up here. Temec isn’t actually on the San Andreas fault, it takes an eastward turn about 60 miles north and swings east of Palm Springs. The study that made the prediction of 90+% of a big one also predicted temecula’s risk is cut in half from earlier predictions (it’s on page 4, where it adresses the elsinore fault)

http://pubs.usgs.gov/fs/2008/3027/fs2008-3027.pdf

“Quake probabilities for many parts of the State are similar to those in previous studies, but the new probabilities for the Elsinore and San Jacinto Faults in southern California are about half those previously determined.”

That quote essentiallys says that their new study is the same as their old study except you can cut the risk of the elsinore fault in half, everything else is the same. Temecula sits on the Elsinore Fault, as does mt palomar, valley center and Julian. None of the places on the elsinore fault have tall buildings, it’s all little towns, which fare better in quakes.

But now that I’ve done the research, I feel better. Now as far as the probabilities, looks like L.A. or S.F. according to the usgs prediction maps and unfortunately, those are the two that are the most densely populated, have the oldest infrastructure and are the most vital to the economy. Let’s hope the retrofit work helps out, because it will probably happen.

[temeculaguy]

[quote=threadkiller]San Diego appears to be safe but Temecula not so much, [/quote]

That made me do about thirty minutes of research, thankfully it turns out we’re fine up here. Temec isn’t actually on the San Andreas fault, it takes an eastward turn about 60 miles north and swings east of Palm Springs. The study that made the prediction of 90+% of a big one also predicted temecula’s risk is cut in half from earlier predictions (it’s on page 4, where it adresses the elsinore fault)

http://pubs.usgs.gov/fs/2008/3027/fs2008-3027.pdf

“Quake probabilities for many parts of the State are similar to those in previous studies, but the new probabilities for the Elsinore and San Jacinto Faults in southern California are about half those previously determined.”

That quote essentiallys says that their new study is the same as their old study except you can cut the risk of the elsinore fault in half, everything else is the same. Temecula sits on the Elsinore Fault, as does mt palomar, valley center and Julian. None of the places on the elsinore fault have tall buildings, it’s all little towns, which fare better in quakes.

But now that I’ve done the research, I feel better. Now as far as the probabilities, looks like L.A. or S.F. according to the usgs prediction maps and unfortunately, those are the two that are the most densely populated, have the oldest infrastructure and are the most vital to the economy. Let’s hope the retrofit work helps out, because it will probably happen.

[temeculaguy]

[quote=threadkiller]San Diego appears to be safe but Temecula not so much, [/quote]

That made me do about thirty minutes of research, thankfully it turns out we’re fine up here. Temec isn’t actually on the San Andreas fault, it takes an eastward turn about 60 miles north and swings east of Palm Springs. The study that made the prediction of 90+% of a big one also predicted temecula’s risk is cut in half from earlier predictions (it’s on page 4, where it adresses the elsinore fault)

http://pubs.usgs.gov/fs/2008/3027/fs2008-3027.pdf

“Quake probabilities for many parts of the State are similar to those in previous studies, but the new probabilities for the Elsinore and San Jacinto Faults in southern California are about half those previously determined.”

That quote essentiallys says that their new study is the same as their old study except you can cut the risk of the elsinore fault in half, everything else is the same. Temecula sits on the Elsinore Fault, as does mt palomar, valley center and Julian. None of the places on the elsinore fault have tall buildings, it’s all little towns, which fare better in quakes.

But now that I’ve done the research, I feel better. Now as far as the probabilities, looks like L.A. or S.F. according to the usgs prediction maps and unfortunately, those are the two that are the most densely populated, have the oldest infrastructure and are the most vital to the economy. Let’s hope the retrofit work helps out, because it will probably happen.

[justme]

>>Haiti disaster drove up re pricing on remaining houses

…but that is different because Haitians had nowhere else to move to, and little money to travel even if they were allowed to immigrate somwhere.

[justme]

>>Haiti disaster drove up re pricing on remaining houses

…but that is different because Haitians had nowhere else to move to, and little money to travel even if they were allowed to immigrate somwhere.

[justme]

>>Haiti disaster drove up re pricing on remaining houses

…but that is different because Haitians had nowhere else to move to, and little money to travel even if they were allowed to immigrate somwhere.

[justme]

>>Haiti disaster drove up re pricing on remaining houses

…but that is different because Haitians had nowhere else to move to, and little money to travel even if they were allowed to immigrate somwhere.

[justme]

>>Haiti disaster drove up re pricing on remaining houses

…but that is different because Haitians had nowhere else to move to, and little money to travel even if they were allowed to immigrate somwhere.

[briansd1]

[quote=CA renter]
but there is no doubt in my mind that the EQ codes save lives.[/quote]

Yes, but at what cost?

Sometimes the costs aren’t worth the savings. If we save 1000 lives in an earthquake at a cost of hundred of billions in contruction costs, then what benefit did we get? It would have been better to spend the money elsewhere.

[briansd1]

[quote=CA renter]
but there is no doubt in my mind that the EQ codes save lives.[/quote]

Yes, but at what cost?

Sometimes the costs aren’t worth the savings. If we save 1000 lives in an earthquake at a cost of hundred of billions in contruction costs, then what benefit did we get? It would have been better to spend the money elsewhere.

[briansd1]

[quote=CA renter]
but there is no doubt in my mind that the EQ codes save lives.[/quote]

Yes, but at what cost?

Sometimes the costs aren’t worth the savings. If we save 1000 lives in an earthquake at a cost of hundred of billions in contruction costs, then what benefit did we get? It would have been better to spend the money elsewhere.

[briansd1]

[quote=CA renter]
but there is no doubt in my mind that the EQ codes save lives.[/quote]

Yes, but at what cost?

Sometimes the costs aren’t worth the savings. If we save 1000 lives in an earthquake at a cost of hundred of billions in contruction costs, then what benefit did we get? It would have been better to spend the money elsewhere.

[Author]

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