Let’s speculate effect of a massive earthquake on RE and CA economy.

[enron_by_the_sea]

This is what is worrying me.

1) Let’s say a big one hits LA or Bay area. Leveling down a huge number of million dollar homes.

2) Most people there do not have earthquake insurance. The 12% that do, have 15%-20% deductible. (source –

http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com/Insurance/InsureYourHome/GetTheFactsOnEarthquakeInsurance.aspx

)

3) Earthquake results into massive disruption of life and commerce in this area. Rebuilding is projected to take many years. Many people and employers just simply decide to pack up and move some other place. This severally affects economy of the area.

4) The budget deficit of the state skyrockets. Feds help out some, but tea party does not want to bail out crazy hippies and president Palin is severly limited in how much she can help. This causes crisis in the municipal bond market.

5) People have big mortgages to pay on damaged properties without big paying jobs and they start to default which starts the next leg of banking crisis.

Can this happen?

[GH]

Nothing in our way of life or society allows for disasters. We go about our lives assuming it will not happen and when it does …

Of course I suspect the biggest disaster waiting in the wings for the US is the Oregon area when the Cascadia Subduction fault gives resulting in a 100 foot tsunami. Last one happened in 1700. They happen every 300 years or so.

[GH]

Nothing in our way of life or society allows for disasters. We go about our lives assuming it will not happen and when it does …

Of course I suspect the biggest disaster waiting in the wings for the US is the Oregon area when the Cascadia Subduction fault gives resulting in a 100 foot tsunami. Last one happened in 1700. They happen every 300 years or so.

[GH]

Nothing in our way of life or society allows for disasters. We go about our lives assuming it will not happen and when it does …

Of course I suspect the biggest disaster waiting in the wings for the US is the Oregon area when the Cascadia Subduction fault gives resulting in a 100 foot tsunami. Last one happened in 1700. They happen every 300 years or so.

[GH]

Nothing in our way of life or society allows for disasters. We go about our lives assuming it will not happen and when it does …

Of course I suspect the biggest disaster waiting in the wings for the US is the Oregon area when the Cascadia Subduction fault gives resulting in a 100 foot tsunami. Last one happened in 1700. They happen every 300 years or so.

[GH]

Nothing in our way of life or society allows for disasters. We go about our lives assuming it will not happen and when it does …

Of course I suspect the biggest disaster waiting in the wings for the US is the Oregon area when the Cascadia Subduction fault gives resulting in a 100 foot tsunami. Last one happened in 1700. They happen every 300 years or so.

[UCGal]

If I recall, real estate prices dropped for about a year in the LA area after the Northridge earthquakes. I personally know two families who took advantage to purchase from freaked out people who decided the sunshine was not worth the earth quake risk and moved back to wherever they were from. One was in OC, one was in the Valley. Admittedly, this is anectdotal evidence.

It’s hard to say how much of the home price decline was due to the earthquake – there was a dip in housing prices during the same window for economic reasons. But the persons I know had been looking, and felt it was the time to get a bargain.

http://www.forecast-chart.com/estate-real-los-angeles.html

[UCGal]

If I recall, real estate prices dropped for about a year in the LA area after the Northridge earthquakes. I personally know two families who took advantage to purchase from freaked out people who decided the sunshine was not worth the earth quake risk and moved back to wherever they were from. One was in OC, one was in the Valley. Admittedly, this is anectdotal evidence.

It’s hard to say how much of the home price decline was due to the earthquake – there was a dip in housing prices during the same window for economic reasons. But the persons I know had been looking, and felt it was the time to get a bargain.

http://www.forecast-chart.com/estate-real-los-angeles.html

[UCGal]

If I recall, real estate prices dropped for about a year in the LA area after the Northridge earthquakes. I personally know two families who took advantage to purchase from freaked out people who decided the sunshine was not worth the earth quake risk and moved back to wherever they were from. One was in OC, one was in the Valley. Admittedly, this is anectdotal evidence.

It’s hard to say how much of the home price decline was due to the earthquake – there was a dip in housing prices during the same window for economic reasons. But the persons I know had been looking, and felt it was the time to get a bargain.

http://www.forecast-chart.com/estate-real-los-angeles.html

[UCGal]

If I recall, real estate prices dropped for about a year in the LA area after the Northridge earthquakes. I personally know two families who took advantage to purchase from freaked out people who decided the sunshine was not worth the earth quake risk and moved back to wherever they were from. One was in OC, one was in the Valley. Admittedly, this is anectdotal evidence.

It’s hard to say how much of the home price decline was due to the earthquake – there was a dip in housing prices during the same window for economic reasons. But the persons I know had been looking, and felt it was the time to get a bargain.

http://www.forecast-chart.com/estate-real-los-angeles.html

[UCGal]

If I recall, real estate prices dropped for about a year in the LA area after the Northridge earthquakes. I personally know two families who took advantage to purchase from freaked out people who decided the sunshine was not worth the earth quake risk and moved back to wherever they were from. One was in OC, one was in the Valley. Admittedly, this is anectdotal evidence.

It’s hard to say how much of the home price decline was due to the earthquake – there was a dip in housing prices during the same window for economic reasons. But the persons I know had been looking, and felt it was the time to get a bargain.

http://www.forecast-chart.com/estate-real-los-angeles.html

[5yearwaiter]

[quote=enron_by_the_sea]This is what is worrying me.

1) Let’s say a big one hits LA or Bay area. Leveling down a huge number of million dollar homes.

2) Most people there do not have earthquake insurance. The 12% that do, have 15%-20% deductible. (source –

http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com/Insurance/InsureYourHome/GetTheFactsOnEarthquakeInsurance.aspx

)

3) Earthquake results into massive disruption of life and commerce in this area. Rebuilding is projected to take many years. Many people and employers just simply decide to pack up and move some other place. This severally affects economy of the area.

4) The budget deficit of the state skyrockets. Feds help out some, but tea party does not want to bail out crazy hippies and president Palin is severly limited in how much she can help. This causes crisis in the municipal bond market.

5) People have big mortgages to pay on damaged properties without big paying jobs and they start to default which starts the next leg of banking crisis.

Can this happen?[/quote]

If really when this happened then a real shortage of housing occur on a huge demand and perhaps temporarly it appears it might be a disaster but many government resources start provide some sort of relief (like FEMA etc)… eventually a lot demand for homes (either rebuilt or new homes occur). If your recall last San Diego fires – I thought housing is going to be worst but it back like a huge swing. Nothing these factors impact as long as jobs and CA attractive life exists.

[5yearwaiter]

[quote=enron_by_the_sea]This is what is worrying me.

1) Let’s say a big one hits LA or Bay area. Leveling down a huge number of million dollar homes.

2) Most people there do not have earthquake insurance. The 12% that do, have 15%-20% deductible. (source –

http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com/Insurance/InsureYourHome/GetTheFactsOnEarthquakeInsurance.aspx

)

3) Earthquake results into massive disruption of life and commerce in this area. Rebuilding is projected to take many years. Many people and employers just simply decide to pack up and move some other place. This severally affects economy of the area.

4) The budget deficit of the state skyrockets. Feds help out some, but tea party does not want to bail out crazy hippies and president Palin is severly limited in how much she can help. This causes crisis in the municipal bond market.

5) People have big mortgages to pay on damaged properties without big paying jobs and they start to default which starts the next leg of banking crisis.

Can this happen?[/quote]

If really when this happened then a real shortage of housing occur on a huge demand and perhaps temporarly it appears it might be a disaster but many government resources start provide some sort of relief (like FEMA etc)… eventually a lot demand for homes (either rebuilt or new homes occur). If your recall last San Diego fires – I thought housing is going to be worst but it back like a huge swing. Nothing these factors impact as long as jobs and CA attractive life exists.

[5yearwaiter]

[quote=enron_by_the_sea]This is what is worrying me.

1) Let’s say a big one hits LA or Bay area. Leveling down a huge number of million dollar homes.

2) Most people there do not have earthquake insurance. The 12% that do, have 15%-20% deductible. (source –

http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com/Insurance/InsureYourHome/GetTheFactsOnEarthquakeInsurance.aspx

)

3) Earthquake results into massive disruption of life and commerce in this area. Rebuilding is projected to take many years. Many people and employers just simply decide to pack up and move some other place. This severally affects economy of the area.

4) The budget deficit of the state skyrockets. Feds help out some, but tea party does not want to bail out crazy hippies and president Palin is severly limited in how much she can help. This causes crisis in the municipal bond market.

5) People have big mortgages to pay on damaged properties without big paying jobs and they start to default which starts the next leg of banking crisis.

Can this happen?[/quote]

If really when this happened then a real shortage of housing occur on a huge demand and perhaps temporarly it appears it might be a disaster but many government resources start provide some sort of relief (like FEMA etc)… eventually a lot demand for homes (either rebuilt or new homes occur). If your recall last San Diego fires – I thought housing is going to be worst but it back like a huge swing. Nothing these factors impact as long as jobs and CA attractive life exists.

[5yearwaiter]

[quote=enron_by_the_sea]This is what is worrying me.

1) Let’s say a big one hits LA or Bay area. Leveling down a huge number of million dollar homes.

2) Most people there do not have earthquake insurance. The 12% that do, have 15%-20% deductible. (source –

http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com/Insurance/InsureYourHome/GetTheFactsOnEarthquakeInsurance.aspx

)

3) Earthquake results into massive disruption of life and commerce in this area. Rebuilding is projected to take many years. Many people and employers just simply decide to pack up and move some other place. This severally affects economy of the area.

4) The budget deficit of the state skyrockets. Feds help out some, but tea party does not want to bail out crazy hippies and president Palin is severly limited in how much she can help. This causes crisis in the municipal bond market.

5) People have big mortgages to pay on damaged properties without big paying jobs and they start to default which starts the next leg of banking crisis.

Can this happen?[/quote]

If really when this happened then a real shortage of housing occur on a huge demand and perhaps temporarly it appears it might be a disaster but many government resources start provide some sort of relief (like FEMA etc)… eventually a lot demand for homes (either rebuilt or new homes occur). If your recall last San Diego fires – I thought housing is going to be worst but it back like a huge swing. Nothing these factors impact as long as jobs and CA attractive life exists.

[Author]

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