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  • January 31, 2008 at 4:37 PM #146565
    SD Realtor
    Participant

    In theory you could be right lending. I do agree that a good number of homeowners are waking up… unfortunately I still encounter the ostriches. I still run into listing appointments for many homeowners who are looking for that special buyer who will “appreciate this home”. I am serious guys. If I had a buck for how many times I hear that line I would be rich. Most of these sellers also live in the more desireable areas. Big surprise there yeah? So they still cling to unrealistic prices.

    Yes some are getting it and yes the rise in the sheer numbers of those people will push the inventory numbers but I don’t believe that factor will push the inventory. I think the simple realization that things are not getting better sooner and will get much worse is much more of a driving reason.

    The best part of the original statement was the “perception of rate cuts”

    what rate cuts?

    Seriously…the 10 year had already priced in the fed moves for the past several weeks. HLS had a pretty telling post recently about a VERY brief spike in the rate sheets that was vaporized in a less then a few hours. So what rate cuts are we talking about?

    Also predicting a rampant rise in inventory during spring is not making headlines. I know the post topic had no choice because this is when the rate cuts happened.

    SD Realtor

    January 31, 2008 at 4:52 PM #146252
    stansd
    Participant

    I think you’ve had a bit too much of the piggington Kool Aid. I would anticipate the effect being the opposite. The average San Diegan still thinks housing is a great investment, and a market that has dropped 15% in the last year combined with near record-low interest rates (particularly when the jumbos go conforming) is going to be too much to pass up.

    I’m not saying inventory won’t rise, but I do believe it will be lower than if they didn’t cut.

    Stan

    January 31, 2008 at 4:52 PM #146496
    stansd
    Participant

    I think you’ve had a bit too much of the piggington Kool Aid. I would anticipate the effect being the opposite. The average San Diegan still thinks housing is a great investment, and a market that has dropped 15% in the last year combined with near record-low interest rates (particularly when the jumbos go conforming) is going to be too much to pass up.

    I’m not saying inventory won’t rise, but I do believe it will be lower than if they didn’t cut.

    Stan

    January 31, 2008 at 4:52 PM #146523
    stansd
    Participant

    I think you’ve had a bit too much of the piggington Kool Aid. I would anticipate the effect being the opposite. The average San Diegan still thinks housing is a great investment, and a market that has dropped 15% in the last year combined with near record-low interest rates (particularly when the jumbos go conforming) is going to be too much to pass up.

    I’m not saying inventory won’t rise, but I do believe it will be lower than if they didn’t cut.

    Stan

    January 31, 2008 at 4:52 PM #146534
    stansd
    Participant

    I think you’ve had a bit too much of the piggington Kool Aid. I would anticipate the effect being the opposite. The average San Diegan still thinks housing is a great investment, and a market that has dropped 15% in the last year combined with near record-low interest rates (particularly when the jumbos go conforming) is going to be too much to pass up.

    I’m not saying inventory won’t rise, but I do believe it will be lower than if they didn’t cut.

    Stan

    January 31, 2008 at 4:52 PM #146595
    stansd
    Participant

    I think you’ve had a bit too much of the piggington Kool Aid. I would anticipate the effect being the opposite. The average San Diegan still thinks housing is a great investment, and a market that has dropped 15% in the last year combined with near record-low interest rates (particularly when the jumbos go conforming) is going to be too much to pass up.

    I’m not saying inventory won’t rise, but I do believe it will be lower than if they didn’t cut.

    Stan

    February 1, 2008 at 12:25 PM #146622
    DaCounselor
    Participant

    I don’t think there is any doubt that the Fed’s massive easing and the concurrent nosedive of LIBOR is going to reduce what otherwise might have been a substantial increase in must-sell inventory due to ARM resets.

    I’m not sure I get the correlation between lower rates and an emerging “rush-to-the-exits” mentality.

    February 1, 2008 at 12:25 PM #146866
    DaCounselor
    Participant

    I don’t think there is any doubt that the Fed’s massive easing and the concurrent nosedive of LIBOR is going to reduce what otherwise might have been a substantial increase in must-sell inventory due to ARM resets.

    I’m not sure I get the correlation between lower rates and an emerging “rush-to-the-exits” mentality.

    February 1, 2008 at 12:25 PM #146893
    DaCounselor
    Participant

    I don’t think there is any doubt that the Fed’s massive easing and the concurrent nosedive of LIBOR is going to reduce what otherwise might have been a substantial increase in must-sell inventory due to ARM resets.

    I’m not sure I get the correlation between lower rates and an emerging “rush-to-the-exits” mentality.

    February 1, 2008 at 12:25 PM #146904
    DaCounselor
    Participant

    I don’t think there is any doubt that the Fed’s massive easing and the concurrent nosedive of LIBOR is going to reduce what otherwise might have been a substantial increase in must-sell inventory due to ARM resets.

    I’m not sure I get the correlation between lower rates and an emerging “rush-to-the-exits” mentality.

    February 1, 2008 at 12:25 PM #146965
    DaCounselor
    Participant

    I don’t think there is any doubt that the Fed’s massive easing and the concurrent nosedive of LIBOR is going to reduce what otherwise might have been a substantial increase in must-sell inventory due to ARM resets.

    I’m not sure I get the correlation between lower rates and an emerging “rush-to-the-exits” mentality.

    February 1, 2008 at 12:33 PM #146627
    lendingbubblecontinues
    Participant

    As always, time will tell…

    Massive easing does not necessarily stave off staggering job losses. It will be the loss of jobs and income that are the catalyst to bringing Southern California real estate to it’s knees.

    Think outside the box every once in awhile…it just might save your ass someday.

    February 1, 2008 at 12:33 PM #146871
    lendingbubblecontinues
    Participant

    As always, time will tell…

    Massive easing does not necessarily stave off staggering job losses. It will be the loss of jobs and income that are the catalyst to bringing Southern California real estate to it’s knees.

    Think outside the box every once in awhile…it just might save your ass someday.

    February 1, 2008 at 12:33 PM #146898
    lendingbubblecontinues
    Participant

    As always, time will tell…

    Massive easing does not necessarily stave off staggering job losses. It will be the loss of jobs and income that are the catalyst to bringing Southern California real estate to it’s knees.

    Think outside the box every once in awhile…it just might save your ass someday.

    February 1, 2008 at 12:33 PM #146909
    lendingbubblecontinues
    Participant

    As always, time will tell…

    Massive easing does not necessarily stave off staggering job losses. It will be the loss of jobs and income that are the catalyst to bringing Southern California real estate to it’s knees.

    Think outside the box every once in awhile…it just might save your ass someday.

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