I predict the rate cuts will lead to more inventory

[lendingbubblecontinues]

Let’s face it…a lot of homeowners who tell us they are doing okay are bluffing.

With the perception being that rate cuts will lead to more people being able to buy houses,(although 30 year fixed rates actually climbed over the past few days) I honestly believe that there are a good number of homeowners waking up to the fact that it is “now or never” and will try and beat their neighbors to the punch by listing this spring. Increased competition for an ever shrinking pool of qualifying buyers will further depress prices.

Stealing the mantra from the “be careful what you wish for” crowd, with regards to rate cuts, I dare say “you got what you wanted”. Now what?

[JWM in SD]

JWM in SD

“I honestly believe that there are a good number of homeowners waking up to the fact that it is “now or never” and will try and beat their neighbors to the punch by listing this spring. Increased competition for an ever shrinking pool of qualifying buyers will further depress prices.”

Precisely. That is one of the catalysts for the conversion from the Virtuous Cycle to the Vicious Cycle that is occuring right now. Bernanke is pushing on a rope at this point. Without wage inflation, the ability to service the debt levels just isn’t there. Without economic growth, you can’t get wage inflation…where is the true economic growth going to come from precisely? This is why RE asset prices are going to deflate severely in the bubble areas.

I watched the Republican Debate last night..it was ridiculuous. So much time was wasted on what John McCain or Mitt Romney said or didn’t say, meanwhile, the MSM is ignoring the only candidate on that stage that understands what if really happening in real time.

[JWM in SD]

JWM in SD

“I honestly believe that there are a good number of homeowners waking up to the fact that it is “now or never” and will try and beat their neighbors to the punch by listing this spring. Increased competition for an ever shrinking pool of qualifying buyers will further depress prices.”

Precisely. That is one of the catalysts for the conversion from the Virtuous Cycle to the Vicious Cycle that is occuring right now. Bernanke is pushing on a rope at this point. Without wage inflation, the ability to service the debt levels just isn’t there. Without economic growth, you can’t get wage inflation…where is the true economic growth going to come from precisely? This is why RE asset prices are going to deflate severely in the bubble areas.

I watched the Republican Debate last night..it was ridiculuous. So much time was wasted on what John McCain or Mitt Romney said or didn’t say, meanwhile, the MSM is ignoring the only candidate on that stage that understands what if really happening in real time.

[JWM in SD]

JWM in SD

“I honestly believe that there are a good number of homeowners waking up to the fact that it is “now or never” and will try and beat their neighbors to the punch by listing this spring. Increased competition for an ever shrinking pool of qualifying buyers will further depress prices.”

Precisely. That is one of the catalysts for the conversion from the Virtuous Cycle to the Vicious Cycle that is occuring right now. Bernanke is pushing on a rope at this point. Without wage inflation, the ability to service the debt levels just isn’t there. Without economic growth, you can’t get wage inflation…where is the true economic growth going to come from precisely? This is why RE asset prices are going to deflate severely in the bubble areas.

I watched the Republican Debate last night..it was ridiculuous. So much time was wasted on what John McCain or Mitt Romney said or didn’t say, meanwhile, the MSM is ignoring the only candidate on that stage that understands what if really happening in real time.

[JWM in SD]

JWM in SD

“I honestly believe that there are a good number of homeowners waking up to the fact that it is “now or never” and will try and beat their neighbors to the punch by listing this spring. Increased competition for an ever shrinking pool of qualifying buyers will further depress prices.”

Precisely. That is one of the catalysts for the conversion from the Virtuous Cycle to the Vicious Cycle that is occuring right now. Bernanke is pushing on a rope at this point. Without wage inflation, the ability to service the debt levels just isn’t there. Without economic growth, you can’t get wage inflation…where is the true economic growth going to come from precisely? This is why RE asset prices are going to deflate severely in the bubble areas.

I watched the Republican Debate last night..it was ridiculuous. So much time was wasted on what John McCain or Mitt Romney said or didn’t say, meanwhile, the MSM is ignoring the only candidate on that stage that understands what if really happening in real time.

[JWM in SD]

JWM in SD

“I honestly believe that there are a good number of homeowners waking up to the fact that it is “now or never” and will try and beat their neighbors to the punch by listing this spring. Increased competition for an ever shrinking pool of qualifying buyers will further depress prices.”

Precisely. That is one of the catalysts for the conversion from the Virtuous Cycle to the Vicious Cycle that is occuring right now. Bernanke is pushing on a rope at this point. Without wage inflation, the ability to service the debt levels just isn’t there. Without economic growth, you can’t get wage inflation…where is the true economic growth going to come from precisely? This is why RE asset prices are going to deflate severely in the bubble areas.

I watched the Republican Debate last night..it was ridiculuous. So much time was wasted on what John McCain or Mitt Romney said or didn’t say, meanwhile, the MSM is ignoring the only candidate on that stage that understands what if really happening in real time.

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

No doubt inventory will rise between now and late Spring. It always does starting in January. Add to that the fact that there are a significant number of foreclosures in the pipeline

So, regardless of the cause it is very likely based on seasonal patterns, as well as foreclosures in the pipeline that inventory will be higher a few months from now than it was in January.
How would one show causation between the FED rate cuts and the inventory in light of these other factors ?

Although you may be right, I don’t think it will be possible to demonstrate that these cuts were the cause.

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

No doubt inventory will rise between now and late Spring. It always does starting in January. Add to that the fact that there are a significant number of foreclosures in the pipeline

So, regardless of the cause it is very likely based on seasonal patterns, as well as foreclosures in the pipeline that inventory will be higher a few months from now than it was in January.
How would one show causation between the FED rate cuts and the inventory in light of these other factors ?

Although you may be right, I don’t think it will be possible to demonstrate that these cuts were the cause.

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

No doubt inventory will rise between now and late Spring. It always does starting in January. Add to that the fact that there are a significant number of foreclosures in the pipeline

So, regardless of the cause it is very likely based on seasonal patterns, as well as foreclosures in the pipeline that inventory will be higher a few months from now than it was in January.
How would one show causation between the FED rate cuts and the inventory in light of these other factors ?

Although you may be right, I don’t think it will be possible to demonstrate that these cuts were the cause.

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

No doubt inventory will rise between now and late Spring. It always does starting in January. Add to that the fact that there are a significant number of foreclosures in the pipeline

So, regardless of the cause it is very likely based on seasonal patterns, as well as foreclosures in the pipeline that inventory will be higher a few months from now than it was in January.
How would one show causation between the FED rate cuts and the inventory in light of these other factors ?

Although you may be right, I don’t think it will be possible to demonstrate that these cuts were the cause.

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

No doubt inventory will rise between now and late Spring. It always does starting in January. Add to that the fact that there are a significant number of foreclosures in the pipeline

So, regardless of the cause it is very likely based on seasonal patterns, as well as foreclosures in the pipeline that inventory will be higher a few months from now than it was in January.
How would one show causation between the FED rate cuts and the inventory in light of these other factors ?

Although you may be right, I don’t think it will be possible to demonstrate that these cuts were the cause.

[SD Realtor]

In theory you could be right lending. I do agree that a good number of homeowners are waking up… unfortunately I still encounter the ostriches. I still run into listing appointments for many homeowners who are looking for that special buyer who will “appreciate this home”. I am serious guys. If I had a buck for how many times I hear that line I would be rich. Most of these sellers also live in the more desireable areas. Big surprise there yeah? So they still cling to unrealistic prices.

Yes some are getting it and yes the rise in the sheer numbers of those people will push the inventory numbers but I don’t believe that factor will push the inventory. I think the simple realization that things are not getting better sooner and will get much worse is much more of a driving reason.

The best part of the original statement was the “perception of rate cuts”

what rate cuts?

Seriously…the 10 year had already priced in the fed moves for the past several weeks. HLS had a pretty telling post recently about a VERY brief spike in the rate sheets that was vaporized in a less then a few hours. So what rate cuts are we talking about?

Also predicting a rampant rise in inventory during spring is not making headlines. I know the post topic had no choice because this is when the rate cuts happened.

SD Realtor

[SD Realtor]

In theory you could be right lending. I do agree that a good number of homeowners are waking up… unfortunately I still encounter the ostriches. I still run into listing appointments for many homeowners who are looking for that special buyer who will “appreciate this home”. I am serious guys. If I had a buck for how many times I hear that line I would be rich. Most of these sellers also live in the more desireable areas. Big surprise there yeah? So they still cling to unrealistic prices.

Yes some are getting it and yes the rise in the sheer numbers of those people will push the inventory numbers but I don’t believe that factor will push the inventory. I think the simple realization that things are not getting better sooner and will get much worse is much more of a driving reason.

The best part of the original statement was the “perception of rate cuts”

what rate cuts?

Seriously…the 10 year had already priced in the fed moves for the past several weeks. HLS had a pretty telling post recently about a VERY brief spike in the rate sheets that was vaporized in a less then a few hours. So what rate cuts are we talking about?

Also predicting a rampant rise in inventory during spring is not making headlines. I know the post topic had no choice because this is when the rate cuts happened.

SD Realtor

[SD Realtor]

In theory you could be right lending. I do agree that a good number of homeowners are waking up… unfortunately I still encounter the ostriches. I still run into listing appointments for many homeowners who are looking for that special buyer who will “appreciate this home”. I am serious guys. If I had a buck for how many times I hear that line I would be rich. Most of these sellers also live in the more desireable areas. Big surprise there yeah? So they still cling to unrealistic prices.

Yes some are getting it and yes the rise in the sheer numbers of those people will push the inventory numbers but I don’t believe that factor will push the inventory. I think the simple realization that things are not getting better sooner and will get much worse is much more of a driving reason.

The best part of the original statement was the “perception of rate cuts”

what rate cuts?

Seriously…the 10 year had already priced in the fed moves for the past several weeks. HLS had a pretty telling post recently about a VERY brief spike in the rate sheets that was vaporized in a less then a few hours. So what rate cuts are we talking about?

Also predicting a rampant rise in inventory during spring is not making headlines. I know the post topic had no choice because this is when the rate cuts happened.

SD Realtor

[SD Realtor]

In theory you could be right lending. I do agree that a good number of homeowners are waking up… unfortunately I still encounter the ostriches. I still run into listing appointments for many homeowners who are looking for that special buyer who will “appreciate this home”. I am serious guys. If I had a buck for how many times I hear that line I would be rich. Most of these sellers also live in the more desireable areas. Big surprise there yeah? So they still cling to unrealistic prices.

Yes some are getting it and yes the rise in the sheer numbers of those people will push the inventory numbers but I don’t believe that factor will push the inventory. I think the simple realization that things are not getting better sooner and will get much worse is much more of a driving reason.

The best part of the original statement was the “perception of rate cuts”

what rate cuts?

Seriously…the 10 year had already priced in the fed moves for the past several weeks. HLS had a pretty telling post recently about a VERY brief spike in the rate sheets that was vaporized in a less then a few hours. So what rate cuts are we talking about?

Also predicting a rampant rise in inventory during spring is not making headlines. I know the post topic had no choice because this is when the rate cuts happened.

SD Realtor

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