How low will it go? Quick survey

[SD Realtor]

I agree that the “new and nice” tract home settings are susceptible to bigger falls due to the fact that there was a high degree of aggressive financing in these homes. Also these places will get superwhacked if the employment picture changes dramatically.

SD Realtor

[HereWeGo]

I suspect we see some price stability at 417K or maybe 417K + 10%. In the less or even modestly desirable areas, though, I can’t see how prices will bottom until that line is crossed.

[HereWeGo]

I suspect we see some price stability at 417K or maybe 417K + 10%. In the less or even modestly desirable areas, though, I can’t see how prices will bottom until that line is crossed.

[HereWeGo]

I suspect we see some price stability at 417K or maybe 417K + 10%. In the less or even modestly desirable areas, though, I can’t see how prices will bottom until that line is crossed.

[Rockemsock]

“At 100K, you can easily support the mortgage on a 350K house. I don’t see the decline going beyond 30% from today, and I think 20% is more likely.”

In 2002, we were first time buyers of a 320k home, and we were making around the median. It wasn’t easy to support the mortgage even thought we had a small amount of debt. The only reason we jumped on the bus was because the rates were low and it seemed like we just had to get on board.

What if rates don’t come down as much…will it not force the prices down even further. In 2-3 years, my bet is that the average joe will look at home ownership as a risky proposition…in 2002 the opposite was true.

So if you are talking about fundamentals, I would say that negative sentiment and higher rates would make a 350k home much more difficult of a purchase for someone making 100k.

[Rockemsock]

“At 100K, you can easily support the mortgage on a 350K house. I don’t see the decline going beyond 30% from today, and I think 20% is more likely.”

In 2002, we were first time buyers of a 320k home, and we were making around the median. It wasn’t easy to support the mortgage even thought we had a small amount of debt. The only reason we jumped on the bus was because the rates were low and it seemed like we just had to get on board.

What if rates don’t come down as much…will it not force the prices down even further. In 2-3 years, my bet is that the average joe will look at home ownership as a risky proposition…in 2002 the opposite was true.

So if you are talking about fundamentals, I would say that negative sentiment and higher rates would make a 350k home much more difficult of a purchase for someone making 100k.

[Rockemsock]

“At 100K, you can easily support the mortgage on a 350K house. I don’t see the decline going beyond 30% from today, and I think 20% is more likely.”

In 2002, we were first time buyers of a 320k home, and we were making around the median. It wasn’t easy to support the mortgage even thought we had a small amount of debt. The only reason we jumped on the bus was because the rates were low and it seemed like we just had to get on board.

What if rates don’t come down as much…will it not force the prices down even further. In 2-3 years, my bet is that the average joe will look at home ownership as a risky proposition…in 2002 the opposite was true.

So if you are talking about fundamentals, I would say that negative sentiment and higher rates would make a 350k home much more difficult of a purchase for someone making 100k.

[trex]

Here are survey results. Forgive me if I misrepresent you. My initial question was vague (real versus nominal, timeframe, overall median versus specific areas), so I’ve taken some poetic license to try and place everyone on the same scale. There seems to be a pretty solid consensus on the 50% point, with some more optimistic.

Me: 30% nominal, 50% real
bsrshaw: 50%
bugs: 50%
Exsd: 50%
kev374 50%+
PerryChase: 50%
FormerSanDiegan: 34-41%
sdnatve: x less than 50%
stansd: 20%
herewego: 25%

Ambiguous:
sdrealtor
rustico (btw, tell us when you buy…)

[trex]

Here are survey results. Forgive me if I misrepresent you. My initial question was vague (real versus nominal, timeframe, overall median versus specific areas), so I’ve taken some poetic license to try and place everyone on the same scale. There seems to be a pretty solid consensus on the 50% point, with some more optimistic.

Me: 30% nominal, 50% real
bsrshaw: 50%
bugs: 50%
Exsd: 50%
kev374 50%+
PerryChase: 50%
FormerSanDiegan: 34-41%
sdnatve: x less than 50%
stansd: 20%
herewego: 25%

Ambiguous:
sdrealtor
rustico (btw, tell us when you buy…)

[trex]

Here are survey results. Forgive me if I misrepresent you. My initial question was vague (real versus nominal, timeframe, overall median versus specific areas), so I’ve taken some poetic license to try and place everyone on the same scale. There seems to be a pretty solid consensus on the 50% point, with some more optimistic.

Me: 30% nominal, 50% real
bsrshaw: 50%
bugs: 50%
Exsd: 50%
kev374 50%+
PerryChase: 50%
FormerSanDiegan: 34-41%
sdnatve: x less than 50%
stansd: 20%
herewego: 25%

Ambiguous:
sdrealtor
rustico (btw, tell us when you buy…)

[SD Realtor]

Hi Trex –

Go ahead and put me down for 20-30 in some neighborhoods and 35-50 in others.

SD Realtor (not sdr as he has not posted on this yet)

[SD Realtor]

Hi Trex –

Go ahead and put me down for 20-30 in some neighborhoods and 35-50 in others.

SD Realtor (not sdr as he has not posted on this yet)

[SD Realtor]

Hi Trex –

Go ahead and put me down for 20-30 in some neighborhoods and 35-50 in others.

SD Realtor (not sdr as he has not posted on this yet)

[PerryChase]

Another thing. I think that housing will track Iraq.

Whatever the percentage housing decline is, we won’t see a bottom until we’re out of iraq.

Also, there won’t be a bottom until we experience a recession. We’re now due for a recession, and I don’t believe that the Fed will, want to, or are capable, of engineering a safe landing of the general economy.

I’m not buying until:
1) recession hits (job losses will kill the new areas),
2) some Iraq resolution is worked out (so energy costs and risks are stabilized).

[PerryChase]

Another thing. I think that housing will track Iraq.

Whatever the percentage housing decline is, we won’t see a bottom until we’re out of iraq.

Also, there won’t be a bottom until we experience a recession. We’re now due for a recession, and I don’t believe that the Fed will, want to, or are capable, of engineering a safe landing of the general economy.

I’m not buying until:
1) recession hits (job losses will kill the new areas),
2) some Iraq resolution is worked out (so energy costs and risks are stabilized).

[Author]

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