How low will it go? Quick survey

[temeculaguy]

sdrealtor, if a 30% drop would bring your house to 2002/2003 price then that is probably the worst case scenario and I will adjust my guess and say that late 2002/early 2003 is where I see things going. For some houses that is a 50% drop and others that is 25% or 30%. I think a spot on the calendar is more likely that a percentage if one was to try and nail things down to a best guess. Areas built or heavily traded/financed during and after 2003 are the ones that I think have the most downside risk and will overcorrect the most.

[mixxalot]

My prediction: 20-30% decline over next five years

I am taking the approach of a slow decline between now and 2012. Then think it will stay flat a few years and then go back up slowly. Just my guess.

[mixxalot]

My prediction: 20-30% decline over next five years

I am taking the approach of a slow decline between now and 2012. Then think it will stay flat a few years and then go back up slowly. Just my guess.

[mixxalot]

My prediction: 20-30% decline over next five years

I am taking the approach of a slow decline between now and 2012. Then think it will stay flat a few years and then go back up slowly. Just my guess.

[GoUSC]

My prediction is a range of 20-50% nominally. In areas like La Jolla, RSF, etc. you will see the lowest drops. Let’s face facts, the richest people have only gotten richer in the past 6 years and can weather a storm like this and buy what they want. My mom lives in LJ and her neighbor’s house which is around 3000sf is in escrow for over $2.5 million to an all cash buyer from RSF (weekend home). These people aren’t going anywhere.

Flipside are the shacks near Euclid in east San Diego that sold for $350k. Those buyers are dried up and those homes will fall over 50% most likely. Finally areas that I am looking aka Hillcrest, Mission Hills (maybe), North Park, Ocean Beach, Bay Park will probably fall 30% nominally.

[GoUSC]

My prediction is a range of 20-50% nominally. In areas like La Jolla, RSF, etc. you will see the lowest drops. Let’s face facts, the richest people have only gotten richer in the past 6 years and can weather a storm like this and buy what they want. My mom lives in LJ and her neighbor’s house which is around 3000sf is in escrow for over $2.5 million to an all cash buyer from RSF (weekend home). These people aren’t going anywhere.

Flipside are the shacks near Euclid in east San Diego that sold for $350k. Those buyers are dried up and those homes will fall over 50% most likely. Finally areas that I am looking aka Hillcrest, Mission Hills (maybe), North Park, Ocean Beach, Bay Park will probably fall 30% nominally.

[GoUSC]

My prediction is a range of 20-50% nominally. In areas like La Jolla, RSF, etc. you will see the lowest drops. Let’s face facts, the richest people have only gotten richer in the past 6 years and can weather a storm like this and buy what they want. My mom lives in LJ and her neighbor’s house which is around 3000sf is in escrow for over $2.5 million to an all cash buyer from RSF (weekend home). These people aren’t going anywhere.

Flipside are the shacks near Euclid in east San Diego that sold for $350k. Those buyers are dried up and those homes will fall over 50% most likely. Finally areas that I am looking aka Hillcrest, Mission Hills (maybe), North Park, Ocean Beach, Bay Park will probably fall 30% nominally.

[GoUSC]

My prediction is a range of 20-50% nominally. In areas like La Jolla, RSF, etc. you will see the lowest drops. Let’s face facts, the richest people have only gotten richer in the past 6 years and can weather a storm like this and buy what they want. My mom lives in LJ and her neighbor’s house which is around 2500sf is in escrow for just under $3 million to an all cash buyer from RSF (weekend home). These people aren’t going anywhere.

Flipside are the shacks near Euclid in east San Diego that sold for $350k. Those buyers are dried up and those homes will fall over 50% most likely. Finally areas that I am looking aka Hillcrest, Mission Hills (maybe), North Park, Ocean Beach, Bay Park will probably fall 30% nominally.

[GoUSC]

My prediction is a range of 20-50% nominally. In areas like La Jolla, RSF, etc. you will see the lowest drops. Let’s face facts, the richest people have only gotten richer in the past 6 years and can weather a storm like this and buy what they want. My mom lives in LJ and her neighbor’s house which is around 2500sf is in escrow for just under $3 million to an all cash buyer from RSF (weekend home). These people aren’t going anywhere.

Flipside are the shacks near Euclid in east San Diego that sold for $350k. Those buyers are dried up and those homes will fall over 50% most likely. Finally areas that I am looking aka Hillcrest, Mission Hills (maybe), North Park, Ocean Beach, Bay Park will probably fall 30% nominally.

[GoUSC]

My prediction is a range of 20-50% nominally. In areas like La Jolla, RSF, etc. you will see the lowest drops. Let’s face facts, the richest people have only gotten richer in the past 6 years and can weather a storm like this and buy what they want. My mom lives in LJ and her neighbor’s house which is around 2500sf is in escrow for just under $3 million to an all cash buyer from RSF (weekend home). These people aren’t going anywhere.

Flipside are the shacks near Euclid in east San Diego that sold for $350k. Those buyers are dried up and those homes will fall over 50% most likely. Finally areas that I am looking aka Hillcrest, Mission Hills (maybe), North Park, Ocean Beach, Bay Park will probably fall 30% nominally.

[gandalf]

Market will start to rebound in 2012, with real housing prices off 50-60% when all is said and done. Next 2-3 years are going to be tumultuous. Nominally, losses will present themselves somewhere in the 20-30% range. Five-year window, I’m also factoring in high probability of significant devaluation of the dollar relative to other currencies.

[gandalf]

Market will start to rebound in 2012, with real housing prices off 50-60% when all is said and done. Next 2-3 years are going to be tumultuous. Nominally, losses will present themselves somewhere in the 20-30% range. Five-year window, I’m also factoring in high probability of significant devaluation of the dollar relative to other currencies.

[gandalf]

Market will start to rebound in 2012, with real housing prices off 50-60% when all is said and done. Next 2-3 years are going to be tumultuous. Nominally, losses will present themselves somewhere in the 20-30% range. Five-year window, I’m also factoring in high probability of significant devaluation of the dollar relative to other currencies.

[JES]

Prices have already gone down, in some cases 15-20%, and yet unlike the lurkers here, most people in SD county have no clue about the true condition of the market. They see the median price leveling or even going up, but they pay no attention to the other ways to measure prices that are taught here. Far more accurate measures. They read the UT and NCTimes and find false encouragement that we are near the bottom, but they don’t take the time to read the Voice of San Diego. And overall, they spend about 1/100th the time that we all do analyzing the market. If they live, or want to buy, in Carlsbad or Encintas, they likely think that the crash hasn’t affected them and that prices will soon rise again now that the worst is over.

Living in the middle of this bubble does one of two things to a man. He either gains insight into the insanity, removes himself from it and takes appropriate action, or he gets so deeply involved in the action that he is forever seduced by the game itself. It is not that far removed from gambling. Start with $100, throw some craps, win $1,000, and I cash out while the guy next to me decides that the hand will turn hot again soon and lets it roll. Only in this case, instead of the odds being slightly worse than even, they are probably entirely stacked against the better with very little gain to be expected for so much risk. And yet new buyers continually come to the table thinking “700 k is alot of money, but it used to be 775k, so this is a real baragin and it is not like prices here are really going to go down that miuch further. Besides, since we make 110k a year, we need the tax write off…”

[JES]

Prices have already gone down, in some cases 15-20%, and yet unlike the lurkers here, most people in SD county have no clue about the true condition of the market. They see the median price leveling or even going up, but they pay no attention to the other ways to measure prices that are taught here. Far more accurate measures. They read the UT and NCTimes and find false encouragement that we are near the bottom, but they don’t take the time to read the Voice of San Diego. And overall, they spend about 1/100th the time that we all do analyzing the market. If they live, or want to buy, in Carlsbad or Encintas, they likely think that the crash hasn’t affected them and that prices will soon rise again now that the worst is over.

Living in the middle of this bubble does one of two things to a man. He either gains insight into the insanity, removes himself from it and takes appropriate action, or he gets so deeply involved in the action that he is forever seduced by the game itself. It is not that far removed from gambling. Start with $100, throw some craps, win $1,000, and I cash out while the guy next to me decides that the hand will turn hot again soon and lets it roll. Only in this case, instead of the odds being slightly worse than even, they are probably entirely stacked against the better with very little gain to be expected for so much risk. And yet new buyers continually come to the table thinking “700 k is alot of money, but it used to be 775k, so this is a real baragin and it is not like prices here are really going to go down that miuch further. Besides, since we make 110k a year, we need the tax write off…”

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