How low will it go? Quick survey

[JES]

When I look at homes in an area like San Elijo Hills that are currently selling for 700k, my intuition tells me that they will drop to at least 500k during the next two years. My subconscious is comnbining the millions of facts that I have seen on this site and others and weighing the odds of a recession, layoffs, a continued housing crash, and heaven forbid a terrorist strike on this country, rate rises etc. Just as Nostradamus predicted ‘hisler’ and the soon to be revealed antichrist who will rise from the European Union, I am confident in 500k, if for no other reason than the fact that the average person in North County looks at those stucco boxes and says, “700k, are you kidding me! Maybe 500k, but no way I’d pay 700k.”

[Anonymous]

There are plenty of examples where sfr’s are at 20-30% declines already. Some condo conversions are already near 50%. Builders are throwing in all kinds of extras and incentives at new homes in order to inflate the prices to keep them level with what has already been sold in earlier phases.

50% in the next 1-2 years is very likely. Banks still think they are protected because they have their precious pmi. What happens when the insurance companies say enough and won’t pay?

BTW…just returned from vacation in Pueblo area of Colorado…new homes there are in the mid 100’s.

Swami

[Anonymous]

There are plenty of examples where sfr’s are at 20-30% declines already. Some condo conversions are already near 50%. Builders are throwing in all kinds of extras and incentives at new homes in order to inflate the prices to keep them level with what has already been sold in earlier phases.

50% in the next 1-2 years is very likely. Banks still think they are protected because they have their precious pmi. What happens when the insurance companies say enough and won’t pay?

BTW…just returned from vacation in Pueblo area of Colorado…new homes there are in the mid 100’s.

Swami

[Anonymous]

There are plenty of examples where sfr’s are at 20-30% declines already. Some condo conversions are already near 50%. Builders are throwing in all kinds of extras and incentives at new homes in order to inflate the prices to keep them level with what has already been sold in earlier phases.

50% in the next 1-2 years is very likely. Banks still think they are protected because they have their precious pmi. What happens when the insurance companies say enough and won’t pay?

BTW…just returned from vacation in Pueblo area of Colorado…new homes there are in the mid 100’s.

Swami

[NotCranky]

“I dont care about the rest.”

I feel just the opposite now. I don’t care what happens to the price of my property, because I have decided to keep it.Might as well forget it.

The rest concern me, both as a licensee and a prospective buyer. I don’t know what the end result will be in price terms. It will be the chunk after chunk scenario or a scenario of some chunks(happening now/soon) with inflation adjustment and perhaps more chunks. Slow inflation adjustment scenario with no crash element seems highly unlikely to me. In terms of relative weighted value in the economy houses change dramatically either way. 40%-50% before it improves again, if it does.

Disclaimer: This is just a mix of the ideas of other piggingtonians and the links you provide, combined with the “chunk” theory of your’s truly.

Another thing. I think that housing will track IRAN.

Best wishes,
Nostradipshit

[NotCranky]

“I dont care about the rest.”

I feel just the opposite now. I don’t care what happens to the price of my property, because I have decided to keep it.Might as well forget it.

The rest concern me, both as a licensee and a prospective buyer. I don’t know what the end result will be in price terms. It will be the chunk after chunk scenario or a scenario of some chunks(happening now/soon) with inflation adjustment and perhaps more chunks. Slow inflation adjustment scenario with no crash element seems highly unlikely to me. In terms of relative weighted value in the economy houses change dramatically either way. 40%-50% before it improves again, if it does.

Disclaimer: This is just a mix of the ideas of other piggingtonians and the links you provide, combined with the “chunk” theory of your’s truly.

Another thing. I think that housing will track IRAN.

Best wishes,
Nostradipshit

[NotCranky]

“I dont care about the rest.”

I feel just the opposite now. I don’t care what happens to the price of my property, because I have decided to keep it.Might as well forget it.

The rest concern me, both as a licensee and a prospective buyer. I don’t know what the end result will be in price terms. It will be the chunk after chunk scenario or a scenario of some chunks(happening now/soon) with inflation adjustment and perhaps more chunks. Slow inflation adjustment scenario with no crash element seems highly unlikely to me. In terms of relative weighted value in the economy houses change dramatically either way. 40%-50% before it improves again, if it does.

Disclaimer: This is just a mix of the ideas of other piggingtonians and the links you provide, combined with the “chunk” theory of your’s truly.

Another thing. I think that housing will track IRAN.

Best wishes,
Nostradipshit

[bsrsharma]

they will drop to at least 500k during the next two years

Two years? Anyone who offers much more than 500K right now for anything (other than multimillion $ palaces) is a moron. With mortgage applications failing all around, there is simply no competition.

 

[bsrsharma]

they will drop to at least 500k during the next two years

Two years? Anyone who offers much more than 500K right now for anything (other than multimillion $ palaces) is a moron. With mortgage applications failing all around, there is simply no competition.

 

[bsrsharma]

they will drop to at least 500k during the next two years

Two years? Anyone who offers much more than 500K right now for anything (other than multimillion $ palaces) is a moron. With mortgage applications failing all around, there is simply no competition.

 

[sdrealtor]

Good point R,
I chose my words poorly. What I should have said was I know the relative value of my house very well and that is what I base many of my opinions on. I know what it took to carry it when i bought it and what it would take to carry it through early 2003 as I still had a very good idea of what it was like to be a corporate worker bee. By 2003 prices lost all semblance of a basis on reality and what people actually earned. After several years away from that world, my frame of reference is not nearly as sharp as it was. I know houses like mine were expensive yet within reach of professionals with traditional financing in early 2003.

I believe it will fare better than most and will be a relative bright spot value wise. I think it will be far worse in many other areas and I just lack a proper frame of reference to hypothesize on those areas with any level of comfort.

Sometimes I shoot before I aim.

BTW, I dont really care about mine either as I never intend to sell it.

sdr

[sdrealtor]

Good point R,
I chose my words poorly. What I should have said was I know the relative value of my house very well and that is what I base many of my opinions on. I know what it took to carry it when i bought it and what it would take to carry it through early 2003 as I still had a very good idea of what it was like to be a corporate worker bee. By 2003 prices lost all semblance of a basis on reality and what people actually earned. After several years away from that world, my frame of reference is not nearly as sharp as it was. I know houses like mine were expensive yet within reach of professionals with traditional financing in early 2003.

I believe it will fare better than most and will be a relative bright spot value wise. I think it will be far worse in many other areas and I just lack a proper frame of reference to hypothesize on those areas with any level of comfort.

Sometimes I shoot before I aim.

BTW, I dont really care about mine either as I never intend to sell it.

sdr

[sdrealtor]

Good point R,
I chose my words poorly. What I should have said was I know the relative value of my house very well and that is what I base many of my opinions on. I know what it took to carry it when i bought it and what it would take to carry it through early 2003 as I still had a very good idea of what it was like to be a corporate worker bee. By 2003 prices lost all semblance of a basis on reality and what people actually earned. After several years away from that world, my frame of reference is not nearly as sharp as it was. I know houses like mine were expensive yet within reach of professionals with traditional financing in early 2003.

I believe it will fare better than most and will be a relative bright spot value wise. I think it will be far worse in many other areas and I just lack a proper frame of reference to hypothesize on those areas with any level of comfort.

Sometimes I shoot before I aim.

BTW, I dont really care about mine either as I never intend to sell it.

sdr

[temeculaguy]

sdrealtor, if a 30% drop would bring your house to 2002/2003 price then that is probably the worst case scenario and I will adjust my guess and say that late 2002/early 2003 is where I see things going. For some houses that is a 50% drop and others that is 25% or 30%. I think a spot on the calendar is more likely that a percentage if one was to try and nail things down to a best guess. Areas built or heavily traded/financed during and after 2003 are the ones that I think have the most downside risk and will overcorrect the most.

[temeculaguy]

sdrealtor, if a 30% drop would bring your house to 2002/2003 price then that is probably the worst case scenario and I will adjust my guess and say that late 2002/early 2003 is where I see things going. For some houses that is a 50% drop and others that is 25% or 30%. I think a spot on the calendar is more likely that a percentage if one was to try and nail things down to a best guess. Areas built or heavily traded/financed during and after 2003 are the ones that I think have the most downside risk and will overcorrect the most.

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