Housing Tracker update – prices about to go over the cliff in San Diego

[gandalf]

Surprised at you Piggs, blaming it all on land prices, permits and big bad CA government. Real estate is a regional business. This bubble is regional in many regards. Speculation in downtown San Diego, for example, results in skyrocketing real estate in — you guessed it, Antarctica. Not.

There are absolutely pockets in TX where prices got ahead of values. On balance, they didn’t appreciate as much as “Canary in the Coalmine” San Diego, and won’t suffer the same declines as a result. Compare with the S&L speculation and collapse in the 80’s which absolutely hammered the midwest. I can remember parts of Oklahoma with near ‘ghost towns’ due to S&L problems and the collapsing of oil prices (and associated speculation). Coastal regions were certainly affected, but less so.

[DWCAP]

[quote=asianautica][quote=EconProf]Texas is flat, no ocean, mountains, or TJ next door to inhibit building. Plus a low-tax, developer-friendly government. Throwing up houses is easy and cheap, dependent on labor costs and materials, which didn’t much go up.
With no bubble to pop, their house prices aren’t falling much, and are even rising in some areas. Having oil, natural gas, and ag. also helps. [/quote]
I don’t think flat, no ocean, mountains, or TJ will contribute to TX price vs SD price. Just look at areas like Fresno, Bakersfield, etc. They all are flat, no ocean, mountains, or TJ, yet price went through the roof. I think the biggest factor is the high property tax and developer-friendly government that’s the culprit. People wouldn’t want a higher price house because they know that next year, their property tax will be that much higher. Also, like you said, the developer-friendly government does make it a lot cheaper for builders to build. I don’t buy the argument of SD running out of land either. We have plenty of land to east that are undeveloped. We’re almost as big in term of land as LA, yet we haven’t even touch the eastern area of the county like LA has.[/quote]

The whole story isnt evident in places like Fresno, or Bakersfield just by saying it is flat, hot and no ocean. Those places boomed becuase of the unaffordable prices in SF or LA. People were willing to commute 90 minutes or more, each way, to own their houses. Those cities bubbled because of coastal unaffordability, which is in part due to mountains and oceans restricting building space.

[DWCAP]

[quote=asianautica][quote=EconProf]Texas is flat, no ocean, mountains, or TJ next door to inhibit building. Plus a low-tax, developer-friendly government. Throwing up houses is easy and cheap, dependent on labor costs and materials, which didn’t much go up.
With no bubble to pop, their house prices aren’t falling much, and are even rising in some areas. Having oil, natural gas, and ag. also helps. [/quote]
I don’t think flat, no ocean, mountains, or TJ will contribute to TX price vs SD price. Just look at areas like Fresno, Bakersfield, etc. They all are flat, no ocean, mountains, or TJ, yet price went through the roof. I think the biggest factor is the high property tax and developer-friendly government that’s the culprit. People wouldn’t want a higher price house because they know that next year, their property tax will be that much higher. Also, like you said, the developer-friendly government does make it a lot cheaper for builders to build. I don’t buy the argument of SD running out of land either. We have plenty of land to east that are undeveloped. We’re almost as big in term of land as LA, yet we haven’t even touch the eastern area of the county like LA has.[/quote]

The whole story isnt evident in places like Fresno, or Bakersfield just by saying it is flat, hot and no ocean. Those places boomed becuase of the unaffordable prices in SF or LA. People were willing to commute 90 minutes or more, each way, to own their houses. Those cities bubbled because of coastal unaffordability, which is in part due to mountains and oceans restricting building space.

[DWCAP]

[quote=asianautica][quote=EconProf]Texas is flat, no ocean, mountains, or TJ next door to inhibit building. Plus a low-tax, developer-friendly government. Throwing up houses is easy and cheap, dependent on labor costs and materials, which didn’t much go up.
With no bubble to pop, their house prices aren’t falling much, and are even rising in some areas. Having oil, natural gas, and ag. also helps. [/quote]
I don’t think flat, no ocean, mountains, or TJ will contribute to TX price vs SD price. Just look at areas like Fresno, Bakersfield, etc. They all are flat, no ocean, mountains, or TJ, yet price went through the roof. I think the biggest factor is the high property tax and developer-friendly government that’s the culprit. People wouldn’t want a higher price house because they know that next year, their property tax will be that much higher. Also, like you said, the developer-friendly government does make it a lot cheaper for builders to build. I don’t buy the argument of SD running out of land either. We have plenty of land to east that are undeveloped. We’re almost as big in term of land as LA, yet we haven’t even touch the eastern area of the county like LA has.[/quote]

The whole story isnt evident in places like Fresno, or Bakersfield just by saying it is flat, hot and no ocean. Those places boomed becuase of the unaffordable prices in SF or LA. People were willing to commute 90 minutes or more, each way, to own their houses. Those cities bubbled because of coastal unaffordability, which is in part due to mountains and oceans restricting building space.

[DWCAP]

[quote=asianautica][quote=EconProf]Texas is flat, no ocean, mountains, or TJ next door to inhibit building. Plus a low-tax, developer-friendly government. Throwing up houses is easy and cheap, dependent on labor costs and materials, which didn’t much go up.
With no bubble to pop, their house prices aren’t falling much, and are even rising in some areas. Having oil, natural gas, and ag. also helps. [/quote]
I don’t think flat, no ocean, mountains, or TJ will contribute to TX price vs SD price. Just look at areas like Fresno, Bakersfield, etc. They all are flat, no ocean, mountains, or TJ, yet price went through the roof. I think the biggest factor is the high property tax and developer-friendly government that’s the culprit. People wouldn’t want a higher price house because they know that next year, their property tax will be that much higher. Also, like you said, the developer-friendly government does make it a lot cheaper for builders to build. I don’t buy the argument of SD running out of land either. We have plenty of land to east that are undeveloped. We’re almost as big in term of land as LA, yet we haven’t even touch the eastern area of the county like LA has.[/quote]

The whole story isnt evident in places like Fresno, or Bakersfield just by saying it is flat, hot and no ocean. Those places boomed becuase of the unaffordable prices in SF or LA. People were willing to commute 90 minutes or more, each way, to own their houses. Those cities bubbled because of coastal unaffordability, which is in part due to mountains and oceans restricting building space.

[DWCAP]

[quote=asianautica][quote=EconProf]Texas is flat, no ocean, mountains, or TJ next door to inhibit building. Plus a low-tax, developer-friendly government. Throwing up houses is easy and cheap, dependent on labor costs and materials, which didn’t much go up.
With no bubble to pop, their house prices aren’t falling much, and are even rising in some areas. Having oil, natural gas, and ag. also helps. [/quote]
I don’t think flat, no ocean, mountains, or TJ will contribute to TX price vs SD price. Just look at areas like Fresno, Bakersfield, etc. They all are flat, no ocean, mountains, or TJ, yet price went through the roof. I think the biggest factor is the high property tax and developer-friendly government that’s the culprit. People wouldn’t want a higher price house because they know that next year, their property tax will be that much higher. Also, like you said, the developer-friendly government does make it a lot cheaper for builders to build. I don’t buy the argument of SD running out of land either. We have plenty of land to east that are undeveloped. We’re almost as big in term of land as LA, yet we haven’t even touch the eastern area of the county like LA has.[/quote]

The whole story isnt evident in places like Fresno, or Bakersfield just by saying it is flat, hot and no ocean. Those places boomed becuase of the unaffordable prices in SF or LA. People were willing to commute 90 minutes or more, each way, to own their houses. Those cities bubbled because of coastal unaffordability, which is in part due to mountains and oceans restricting building space.

[gandalf]

Lending institutions tend be somewhat regional as well, and CA, FL, NV, AZ, etc. had some of the worst culprits in this whole debacle, Countrywide, IndyMax, Wamu, etc.

[gandalf]

Lending institutions tend be somewhat regional as well, and CA, FL, NV, AZ, etc. had some of the worst culprits in this whole debacle, Countrywide, IndyMax, Wamu, etc.

[gandalf]

Lending institutions tend be somewhat regional as well, and CA, FL, NV, AZ, etc. had some of the worst culprits in this whole debacle, Countrywide, IndyMax, Wamu, etc.

[gandalf]

Lending institutions tend be somewhat regional as well, and CA, FL, NV, AZ, etc. had some of the worst culprits in this whole debacle, Countrywide, IndyMax, Wamu, etc.

[gandalf]

Lending institutions tend be somewhat regional as well, and CA, FL, NV, AZ, etc. had some of the worst culprits in this whole debacle, Countrywide, IndyMax, Wamu, etc.

[EconProf]

I’m seeing a lot of theories to explain the different prices of housing San Diego vs. Texas. I still claim it is mostly land and lot prices, + a hostile government here that loves to skewer developers. You guys need to talk to some builders to see what they have to pay for lots.
A quick look at Craigslist for Dallas real estate immediately turned up, for under $30k, a big lot allegedly 20 minutes from Dallas downtown, 20 minutes from Fort Worth downtown. Allowing for some exageration by the seller, and this example’s admittedly anecdotal nature, it supports my thesis. I didn’t take the time to drum up more examples, but they seemed to be there.
What would a building lot 20 minutes from downtown San Diego cost? Here’s a start: $300k for a scraper in Scripps Ranch after their fire 4 or so years ago. (SD Realtor: you live in Scripps…is this about right?).
Another example I was involved in 3 years ago. 50 x 140 standard lot in North Park, so-so neighborhood, sold for $600k with scraper house on it. In fairness, I think the same lot now would go for $400k. But even with the current pullback, land and lots here are incredibly expensive.
We’ve got canyons, an ocean, an international border, military bases, and NIMBY’S throughout.

[EconProf]

I’m seeing a lot of theories to explain the different prices of housing San Diego vs. Texas. I still claim it is mostly land and lot prices, + a hostile government here that loves to skewer developers. You guys need to talk to some builders to see what they have to pay for lots.
A quick look at Craigslist for Dallas real estate immediately turned up, for under $30k, a big lot allegedly 20 minutes from Dallas downtown, 20 minutes from Fort Worth downtown. Allowing for some exageration by the seller, and this example’s admittedly anecdotal nature, it supports my thesis. I didn’t take the time to drum up more examples, but they seemed to be there.
What would a building lot 20 minutes from downtown San Diego cost? Here’s a start: $300k for a scraper in Scripps Ranch after their fire 4 or so years ago. (SD Realtor: you live in Scripps…is this about right?).
Another example I was involved in 3 years ago. 50 x 140 standard lot in North Park, so-so neighborhood, sold for $600k with scraper house on it. In fairness, I think the same lot now would go for $400k. But even with the current pullback, land and lots here are incredibly expensive.
We’ve got canyons, an ocean, an international border, military bases, and NIMBY’S throughout.

[EconProf]

I’m seeing a lot of theories to explain the different prices of housing San Diego vs. Texas. I still claim it is mostly land and lot prices, + a hostile government here that loves to skewer developers. You guys need to talk to some builders to see what they have to pay for lots.
A quick look at Craigslist for Dallas real estate immediately turned up, for under $30k, a big lot allegedly 20 minutes from Dallas downtown, 20 minutes from Fort Worth downtown. Allowing for some exageration by the seller, and this example’s admittedly anecdotal nature, it supports my thesis. I didn’t take the time to drum up more examples, but they seemed to be there.
What would a building lot 20 minutes from downtown San Diego cost? Here’s a start: $300k for a scraper in Scripps Ranch after their fire 4 or so years ago. (SD Realtor: you live in Scripps…is this about right?).
Another example I was involved in 3 years ago. 50 x 140 standard lot in North Park, so-so neighborhood, sold for $600k with scraper house on it. In fairness, I think the same lot now would go for $400k. But even with the current pullback, land and lots here are incredibly expensive.
We’ve got canyons, an ocean, an international border, military bases, and NIMBY’S throughout.

[EconProf]

I’m seeing a lot of theories to explain the different prices of housing San Diego vs. Texas. I still claim it is mostly land and lot prices, + a hostile government here that loves to skewer developers. You guys need to talk to some builders to see what they have to pay for lots.
A quick look at Craigslist for Dallas real estate immediately turned up, for under $30k, a big lot allegedly 20 minutes from Dallas downtown, 20 minutes from Fort Worth downtown. Allowing for some exageration by the seller, and this example’s admittedly anecdotal nature, it supports my thesis. I didn’t take the time to drum up more examples, but they seemed to be there.
What would a building lot 20 minutes from downtown San Diego cost? Here’s a start: $300k for a scraper in Scripps Ranch after their fire 4 or so years ago. (SD Realtor: you live in Scripps…is this about right?).
Another example I was involved in 3 years ago. 50 x 140 standard lot in North Park, so-so neighborhood, sold for $600k with scraper house on it. In fairness, I think the same lot now would go for $400k. But even with the current pullback, land and lots here are incredibly expensive.
We’ve got canyons, an ocean, an international border, military bases, and NIMBY’S throughout.

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