Housing Tracker update – prices about to go over the cliff in San Diego

[gdcox]

Good point Querty, hence need CS.
EconProf. What I find really curious is how and why prices in places like Texas did not explode in line with SD and hence are stable now. In fact Texas is cheap. Compare say SD with San Antonio: quite similar except for the coast and industries. The same financial infrastructure with al its imperfections were as much in place there as in SD or any other of the blow-out locations. Does Texas have recource mortgages by any chance?

[EconProf]

Don’t know about Texas recourse or nonrecourse mortgages.
But one factor best explains why Texas did not have a bubble comparable to ours: cheap land.
Texas is flat, no ocean, mountains, or TJ next door to inhibit building. Plus a low-tax, developer-friendly government. Throwing up houses is easy and cheap, dependent on labor costs and materials, which didn’t much go up.
With no bubble to pop, their house prices aren’t falling much, and are even rising in some areas. Having oil, natural gas, and ag. also helps.

[EconProf]

Don’t know about Texas recourse or nonrecourse mortgages.
But one factor best explains why Texas did not have a bubble comparable to ours: cheap land.
Texas is flat, no ocean, mountains, or TJ next door to inhibit building. Plus a low-tax, developer-friendly government. Throwing up houses is easy and cheap, dependent on labor costs and materials, which didn’t much go up.
With no bubble to pop, their house prices aren’t falling much, and are even rising in some areas. Having oil, natural gas, and ag. also helps.

[EconProf]

Don’t know about Texas recourse or nonrecourse mortgages.
But one factor best explains why Texas did not have a bubble comparable to ours: cheap land.
Texas is flat, no ocean, mountains, or TJ next door to inhibit building. Plus a low-tax, developer-friendly government. Throwing up houses is easy and cheap, dependent on labor costs and materials, which didn’t much go up.
With no bubble to pop, their house prices aren’t falling much, and are even rising in some areas. Having oil, natural gas, and ag. also helps.

[EconProf]

Don’t know about Texas recourse or nonrecourse mortgages.
But one factor best explains why Texas did not have a bubble comparable to ours: cheap land.
Texas is flat, no ocean, mountains, or TJ next door to inhibit building. Plus a low-tax, developer-friendly government. Throwing up houses is easy and cheap, dependent on labor costs and materials, which didn’t much go up.
With no bubble to pop, their house prices aren’t falling much, and are even rising in some areas. Having oil, natural gas, and ag. also helps.

[EconProf]

Don’t know about Texas recourse or nonrecourse mortgages.
But one factor best explains why Texas did not have a bubble comparable to ours: cheap land.
Texas is flat, no ocean, mountains, or TJ next door to inhibit building. Plus a low-tax, developer-friendly government. Throwing up houses is easy and cheap, dependent on labor costs and materials, which didn’t much go up.
With no bubble to pop, their house prices aren’t falling much, and are even rising in some areas. Having oil, natural gas, and ag. also helps.

[an]

[quote=EconProf]Texas is flat, no ocean, mountains, or TJ next door to inhibit building. Plus a low-tax, developer-friendly government. Throwing up houses is easy and cheap, dependent on labor costs and materials, which didn’t much go up.
With no bubble to pop, their house prices aren’t falling much, and are even rising in some areas. Having oil, natural gas, and ag. also helps. [/quote]
I don’t think flat, no ocean, mountains, or TJ will contribute to TX price vs SD price. Just look at areas like Fresno, Bakersfield, etc. They all are flat, no ocean, mountains, or TJ, yet price went through the roof. I think the biggest factor is the high property tax and developer-friendly government that’s the culprit. People wouldn’t want a higher price house because they know that next year, their property tax will be that much higher. Also, like you said, the developer-friendly government does make it a lot cheaper for builders to build. I don’t buy the argument of SD running out of land either. We have plenty of land to east that are undeveloped. We’re almost as big in term of land as LA, yet we haven’t even touch the eastern area of the county like LA has.

[an]

[quote=EconProf]Texas is flat, no ocean, mountains, or TJ next door to inhibit building. Plus a low-tax, developer-friendly government. Throwing up houses is easy and cheap, dependent on labor costs and materials, which didn’t much go up.
With no bubble to pop, their house prices aren’t falling much, and are even rising in some areas. Having oil, natural gas, and ag. also helps. [/quote]
I don’t think flat, no ocean, mountains, or TJ will contribute to TX price vs SD price. Just look at areas like Fresno, Bakersfield, etc. They all are flat, no ocean, mountains, or TJ, yet price went through the roof. I think the biggest factor is the high property tax and developer-friendly government that’s the culprit. People wouldn’t want a higher price house because they know that next year, their property tax will be that much higher. Also, like you said, the developer-friendly government does make it a lot cheaper for builders to build. I don’t buy the argument of SD running out of land either. We have plenty of land to east that are undeveloped. We’re almost as big in term of land as LA, yet we haven’t even touch the eastern area of the county like LA has.

[an]

[quote=EconProf]Texas is flat, no ocean, mountains, or TJ next door to inhibit building. Plus a low-tax, developer-friendly government. Throwing up houses is easy and cheap, dependent on labor costs and materials, which didn’t much go up.
With no bubble to pop, their house prices aren’t falling much, and are even rising in some areas. Having oil, natural gas, and ag. also helps. [/quote]
I don’t think flat, no ocean, mountains, or TJ will contribute to TX price vs SD price. Just look at areas like Fresno, Bakersfield, etc. They all are flat, no ocean, mountains, or TJ, yet price went through the roof. I think the biggest factor is the high property tax and developer-friendly government that’s the culprit. People wouldn’t want a higher price house because they know that next year, their property tax will be that much higher. Also, like you said, the developer-friendly government does make it a lot cheaper for builders to build. I don’t buy the argument of SD running out of land either. We have plenty of land to east that are undeveloped. We’re almost as big in term of land as LA, yet we haven’t even touch the eastern area of the county like LA has.

[an]

[quote=EconProf]Texas is flat, no ocean, mountains, or TJ next door to inhibit building. Plus a low-tax, developer-friendly government. Throwing up houses is easy and cheap, dependent on labor costs and materials, which didn’t much go up.
With no bubble to pop, their house prices aren’t falling much, and are even rising in some areas. Having oil, natural gas, and ag. also helps. [/quote]
I don’t think flat, no ocean, mountains, or TJ will contribute to TX price vs SD price. Just look at areas like Fresno, Bakersfield, etc. They all are flat, no ocean, mountains, or TJ, yet price went through the roof. I think the biggest factor is the high property tax and developer-friendly government that’s the culprit. People wouldn’t want a higher price house because they know that next year, their property tax will be that much higher. Also, like you said, the developer-friendly government does make it a lot cheaper for builders to build. I don’t buy the argument of SD running out of land either. We have plenty of land to east that are undeveloped. We’re almost as big in term of land as LA, yet we haven’t even touch the eastern area of the county like LA has.

[an]

[quote=EconProf]Texas is flat, no ocean, mountains, or TJ next door to inhibit building. Plus a low-tax, developer-friendly government. Throwing up houses is easy and cheap, dependent on labor costs and materials, which didn’t much go up.
With no bubble to pop, their house prices aren’t falling much, and are even rising in some areas. Having oil, natural gas, and ag. also helps. [/quote]
I don’t think flat, no ocean, mountains, or TJ will contribute to TX price vs SD price. Just look at areas like Fresno, Bakersfield, etc. They all are flat, no ocean, mountains, or TJ, yet price went through the roof. I think the biggest factor is the high property tax and developer-friendly government that’s the culprit. People wouldn’t want a higher price house because they know that next year, their property tax will be that much higher. Also, like you said, the developer-friendly government does make it a lot cheaper for builders to build. I don’t buy the argument of SD running out of land either. We have plenty of land to east that are undeveloped. We’re almost as big in term of land as LA, yet we haven’t even touch the eastern area of the county like LA has.

[Bugs]

Unless we start getting our water from the ocean we probably won’t be stretching that much farther east.

Then too, there’s the freeway situation.

As for the upper end, I think the luxury home market is skewing those numbers up. They never did slow down that much on the development of the home in the $3mil+ ranges, even though the sales volumes dropped. It’s been a while since last I looked, but we did have a 2+ year supply of standing inventory at that time and I’d imagine those numbers have probably gone up.

Given the overall sales volumes, it doesn’t take that many additional $3mil listings to skew the listing price median up.

[Bugs]

Unless we start getting our water from the ocean we probably won’t be stretching that much farther east.

Then too, there’s the freeway situation.

As for the upper end, I think the luxury home market is skewing those numbers up. They never did slow down that much on the development of the home in the $3mil+ ranges, even though the sales volumes dropped. It’s been a while since last I looked, but we did have a 2+ year supply of standing inventory at that time and I’d imagine those numbers have probably gone up.

Given the overall sales volumes, it doesn’t take that many additional $3mil listings to skew the listing price median up.

[Bugs]

Unless we start getting our water from the ocean we probably won’t be stretching that much farther east.

Then too, there’s the freeway situation.

As for the upper end, I think the luxury home market is skewing those numbers up. They never did slow down that much on the development of the home in the $3mil+ ranges, even though the sales volumes dropped. It’s been a while since last I looked, but we did have a 2+ year supply of standing inventory at that time and I’d imagine those numbers have probably gone up.

Given the overall sales volumes, it doesn’t take that many additional $3mil listings to skew the listing price median up.

[Bugs]

Unless we start getting our water from the ocean we probably won’t be stretching that much farther east.

Then too, there’s the freeway situation.

As for the upper end, I think the luxury home market is skewing those numbers up. They never did slow down that much on the development of the home in the $3mil+ ranges, even though the sales volumes dropped. It’s been a while since last I looked, but we did have a 2+ year supply of standing inventory at that time and I’d imagine those numbers have probably gone up.

Given the overall sales volumes, it doesn’t take that many additional $3mil listings to skew the listing price median up.

[Author]

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