Easy money on next leg down, second Fool’s Rally progressing as expected

[stockstradr]

peterb writes: They feel there’s a very good chance we will test the lows from Octobers crash in the next 5 trading days.

They may be right about that! I’m a bit stunned markets dropped over 5% today.

Let’s hope they are also right about the rally to follow.

Today I’m rather worried I missed the top of this Fool’s Rally with my expectation it would go to 1,100 or higher. Maybe 1,000 (S&P500) WAS the top?

Here’s what I DO like about the projection for a 1-3 months rally: we won’t see 4th quarter GDP numbers until early next year. Those numbers will be horrible. I’m implying the economic data may be ONLY moderately bad for a couple months, until it gets MUCH MUCH WORSE about 1 to 3 months from now. Plus we got the credit markets continuing to unfreeze.

I still got my *fingers crossed* this Fool’s Rally resumes soon and continues to carry markets up higher.

[kewp]

[quote=Nor-LA-SD-guy]
Here is another one of my weird thoughts; If Gold gets to 3000 dollars per ounce,

That will solve the housing crisis and the unemployment problem all at once,

All the able bodied people will head north to pan/dredge for gold…

[/quote]

Hope they enjoy the walk, gas will be $100 if thats the case!

[kewp]

[quote=Nor-LA-SD-guy]
Here is another one of my weird thoughts; If Gold gets to 3000 dollars per ounce,

That will solve the housing crisis and the unemployment problem all at once,

All the able bodied people will head north to pan/dredge for gold…

[/quote]

Hope they enjoy the walk, gas will be $100 if thats the case!

[kewp]

[quote=Nor-LA-SD-guy]
Here is another one of my weird thoughts; If Gold gets to 3000 dollars per ounce,

That will solve the housing crisis and the unemployment problem all at once,

All the able bodied people will head north to pan/dredge for gold…

[/quote]

Hope they enjoy the walk, gas will be $100 if thats the case!

[kewp]

[quote=Nor-LA-SD-guy]
Here is another one of my weird thoughts; If Gold gets to 3000 dollars per ounce,

That will solve the housing crisis and the unemployment problem all at once,

All the able bodied people will head north to pan/dredge for gold…

[/quote]

Hope they enjoy the walk, gas will be $100 if thats the case!

[kewp]

[quote=Nor-LA-SD-guy]
Here is another one of my weird thoughts; If Gold gets to 3000 dollars per ounce,

That will solve the housing crisis and the unemployment problem all at once,

All the able bodied people will head north to pan/dredge for gold…

[/quote]

Hope they enjoy the walk, gas will be $100 if thats the case!

[afx114]

Friday is going to hurt, from Goldman Sachs:

We have deepened our forecast of the change in payroll employment for October to -300,000 from -250,000. … The drop in payrolls we are now forecasting would be one of the worst month-over-month declines in the past twenty years. … Unfortunately, there is no guarantee that the October decline in payroll employment will be the worst of this cycle. Real activity appears to have contracted sharply in October and … could well bleed into November and cause another large drop in payroll employment …

[afx114]

Friday is going to hurt, from Goldman Sachs:

We have deepened our forecast of the change in payroll employment for October to -300,000 from -250,000. … The drop in payrolls we are now forecasting would be one of the worst month-over-month declines in the past twenty years. … Unfortunately, there is no guarantee that the October decline in payroll employment will be the worst of this cycle. Real activity appears to have contracted sharply in October and … could well bleed into November and cause another large drop in payroll employment …

[afx114]

Friday is going to hurt, from Goldman Sachs:

We have deepened our forecast of the change in payroll employment for October to -300,000 from -250,000. … The drop in payrolls we are now forecasting would be one of the worst month-over-month declines in the past twenty years. … Unfortunately, there is no guarantee that the October decline in payroll employment will be the worst of this cycle. Real activity appears to have contracted sharply in October and … could well bleed into November and cause another large drop in payroll employment …

[afx114]

Friday is going to hurt, from Goldman Sachs:

We have deepened our forecast of the change in payroll employment for October to -300,000 from -250,000. … The drop in payrolls we are now forecasting would be one of the worst month-over-month declines in the past twenty years. … Unfortunately, there is no guarantee that the October decline in payroll employment will be the worst of this cycle. Real activity appears to have contracted sharply in October and … could well bleed into November and cause another large drop in payroll employment …

[afx114]

Friday is going to hurt, from Goldman Sachs:

We have deepened our forecast of the change in payroll employment for October to -300,000 from -250,000. … The drop in payrolls we are now forecasting would be one of the worst month-over-month declines in the past twenty years. … Unfortunately, there is no guarantee that the October decline in payroll employment will be the worst of this cycle. Real activity appears to have contracted sharply in October and … could well bleed into November and cause another large drop in payroll employment …

[davelj]

[quote=stockstradr]

Chris Scoreboard Johnston writes: (various whining and flaming, ranting posts)

Chris, either put up OR shut up. By “put up” I mean add some value by putting up YOUR PREDICTIONS. I’m sincerely interested in your predictions and analysis. I’m NOT interested in reading your ranting whining posts that flame other predictions.

[/quote]

I’ll defend Chris for a moment here. In the past (2006/2007) he put up several trading predictions most of which played out pretty much as he predicted. I remember such things because I don’t see it too often and I’m actually a professional investor, although not a trader by any means (I’m in private equity). So, at least where the past is concerned, Chris has put up his predictions – and been correct enough for me to take note. Now, I haven’t seen any predictions this year, nor do I know if his previous predictions were more luck than strategy – that’s beyond the scope of this post. But he’s made some good calls in the past – calls that I thought at the time were unconventional.

Anyhow, I’m not a trader. I’m an arbiter of business value. I think trading is really hard. Determining the value of a business – if you understand that business extremely well – is a lot easier, to my way of thinking. And there are plenty of businesses out there that aren’t too hard to understand if you put the work in. And if you do your due diligence, buy the business right, and have a good bit of patience, things tend to work out well over time. That’s just an observation… worth exactly what you paid for it.

[davelj]

[quote=stockstradr]

Chris Scoreboard Johnston writes: (various whining and flaming, ranting posts)

Chris, either put up OR shut up. By “put up” I mean add some value by putting up YOUR PREDICTIONS. I’m sincerely interested in your predictions and analysis. I’m NOT interested in reading your ranting whining posts that flame other predictions.

[/quote]

I’ll defend Chris for a moment here. In the past (2006/2007) he put up several trading predictions most of which played out pretty much as he predicted. I remember such things because I don’t see it too often and I’m actually a professional investor, although not a trader by any means (I’m in private equity). So, at least where the past is concerned, Chris has put up his predictions – and been correct enough for me to take note. Now, I haven’t seen any predictions this year, nor do I know if his previous predictions were more luck than strategy – that’s beyond the scope of this post. But he’s made some good calls in the past – calls that I thought at the time were unconventional.

Anyhow, I’m not a trader. I’m an arbiter of business value. I think trading is really hard. Determining the value of a business – if you understand that business extremely well – is a lot easier, to my way of thinking. And there are plenty of businesses out there that aren’t too hard to understand if you put the work in. And if you do your due diligence, buy the business right, and have a good bit of patience, things tend to work out well over time. That’s just an observation… worth exactly what you paid for it.

[davelj]

[quote=stockstradr]

Chris Scoreboard Johnston writes: (various whining and flaming, ranting posts)

Chris, either put up OR shut up. By “put up” I mean add some value by putting up YOUR PREDICTIONS. I’m sincerely interested in your predictions and analysis. I’m NOT interested in reading your ranting whining posts that flame other predictions.

[/quote]

I’ll defend Chris for a moment here. In the past (2006/2007) he put up several trading predictions most of which played out pretty much as he predicted. I remember such things because I don’t see it too often and I’m actually a professional investor, although not a trader by any means (I’m in private equity). So, at least where the past is concerned, Chris has put up his predictions – and been correct enough for me to take note. Now, I haven’t seen any predictions this year, nor do I know if his previous predictions were more luck than strategy – that’s beyond the scope of this post. But he’s made some good calls in the past – calls that I thought at the time were unconventional.

Anyhow, I’m not a trader. I’m an arbiter of business value. I think trading is really hard. Determining the value of a business – if you understand that business extremely well – is a lot easier, to my way of thinking. And there are plenty of businesses out there that aren’t too hard to understand if you put the work in. And if you do your due diligence, buy the business right, and have a good bit of patience, things tend to work out well over time. That’s just an observation… worth exactly what you paid for it.

[davelj]

[quote=stockstradr]

Chris Scoreboard Johnston writes: (various whining and flaming, ranting posts)

Chris, either put up OR shut up. By “put up” I mean add some value by putting up YOUR PREDICTIONS. I’m sincerely interested in your predictions and analysis. I’m NOT interested in reading your ranting whining posts that flame other predictions.

[/quote]

I’ll defend Chris for a moment here. In the past (2006/2007) he put up several trading predictions most of which played out pretty much as he predicted. I remember such things because I don’t see it too often and I’m actually a professional investor, although not a trader by any means (I’m in private equity). So, at least where the past is concerned, Chris has put up his predictions – and been correct enough for me to take note. Now, I haven’t seen any predictions this year, nor do I know if his previous predictions were more luck than strategy – that’s beyond the scope of this post. But he’s made some good calls in the past – calls that I thought at the time were unconventional.

Anyhow, I’m not a trader. I’m an arbiter of business value. I think trading is really hard. Determining the value of a business – if you understand that business extremely well – is a lot easier, to my way of thinking. And there are plenty of businesses out there that aren’t too hard to understand if you put the work in. And if you do your due diligence, buy the business right, and have a good bit of patience, things tend to work out well over time. That’s just an observation… worth exactly what you paid for it.

[Author]

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