Dow flirting with 12,000 – the market has everyone’s attention…

[Duck]

Bond insurers like Ambac and MBIA are the next shoe to drop. If they default, and it’s looking highly likely, then the banks and other’s with bonds they insure on their books could be facing writedowns that I’v been told will make CDO’s look like child’s play.

My only saving grace is that BRK just got into that business and with no bad loans on their books they might own that market for the foreseeable future. BRK has been up for the last few days.

Look for the Fed. Govt to step in soon. That $500 billion we’re spending in Iraq would do wonders here.

[cashman]

Time to hunker down and go to cash. This is just the start of the bear market. Remember the 2000-2001 tech wreck? That took a couple of years to play out. According to Peter Schiff, we’re in for a really prolonged bear market this time. And both Roubini and Denninger say that for 2008, cash is king. There will probably be a bounce in the market here near term. Anyone long should take that opportunity to get the hell out of the market. You may not get another chance. My targets are about 10000 on the Dow, and 1000 on the S&P. We have a long ways yet to go. 2008 is all about capital preservation. If you can do 5 percent on your money this year, be grateful.

[cashman]

Time to hunker down and go to cash. This is just the start of the bear market. Remember the 2000-2001 tech wreck? That took a couple of years to play out. According to Peter Schiff, we’re in for a really prolonged bear market this time. And both Roubini and Denninger say that for 2008, cash is king. There will probably be a bounce in the market here near term. Anyone long should take that opportunity to get the hell out of the market. You may not get another chance. My targets are about 10000 on the Dow, and 1000 on the S&P. We have a long ways yet to go. 2008 is all about capital preservation. If you can do 5 percent on your money this year, be grateful.

[cashman]

Time to hunker down and go to cash. This is just the start of the bear market. Remember the 2000-2001 tech wreck? That took a couple of years to play out. According to Peter Schiff, we’re in for a really prolonged bear market this time. And both Roubini and Denninger say that for 2008, cash is king. There will probably be a bounce in the market here near term. Anyone long should take that opportunity to get the hell out of the market. You may not get another chance. My targets are about 10000 on the Dow, and 1000 on the S&P. We have a long ways yet to go. 2008 is all about capital preservation. If you can do 5 percent on your money this year, be grateful.

[cashman]

Time to hunker down and go to cash. This is just the start of the bear market. Remember the 2000-2001 tech wreck? That took a couple of years to play out. According to Peter Schiff, we’re in for a really prolonged bear market this time. And both Roubini and Denninger say that for 2008, cash is king. There will probably be a bounce in the market here near term. Anyone long should take that opportunity to get the hell out of the market. You may not get another chance. My targets are about 10000 on the Dow, and 1000 on the S&P. We have a long ways yet to go. 2008 is all about capital preservation. If you can do 5 percent on your money this year, be grateful.

[cashman]

Time to hunker down and go to cash. This is just the start of the bear market. Remember the 2000-2001 tech wreck? That took a couple of years to play out. According to Peter Schiff, we’re in for a really prolonged bear market this time. And both Roubini and Denninger say that for 2008, cash is king. There will probably be a bounce in the market here near term. Anyone long should take that opportunity to get the hell out of the market. You may not get another chance. My targets are about 10000 on the Dow, and 1000 on the S&P. We have a long ways yet to go. 2008 is all about capital preservation. If you can do 5 percent on your money this year, be grateful.

[LA_Renter]

“Look for the Fed. Govt to step in soon”

That is the wild card in the market right now. Cramer pitched an idea today and stated that he thought the govt should take MBIA and Ambac over, dispose of the assets selling the good ones to Buffett, and close the operations down. He said it was not a matter of….IF….they fail, but rather…When….they fail. The govt could then guarentee the $500 Bil of bad paper at .50 on the dollar with a tax payer cost of $250 Bil. He said the Dow would go up 2000 pts if this was enacted. Cramer has some extremely high level players feeding him this info so I would not dismiss this. Here is a post at Calculated Risk on the impact of the dissolution these companies

http://calculatedrisk.blogspot.com/2008/01/fitch-cuts-ambac-rating-to-aa.html

“The destruction of the bond insurers would likely bring write-downs at major banks and financial institutions that would put current write-downs to shame,” Tamara Kravec, an analyst at Banc of America Securities, wrote in a note Friday.”

This is turning into a very big story and is IMO the primary reason there has been no bounce…….NO BOUNCE…….in the stock market this week. If you are placing large bets shorting this market a large govt bailout of this type is your biggest risk, talk about a short squeeze. If such a bailout gets put in place the large players will know first long before it makes it across any newswire. Pay attention to the options of the financials. If you see heavy call activity start taking place cover any short position you have. On the other hand if these monolines go under you will see an equally large move down which may be the trigger for the govt to step in. I have a feeling it will be one or the other. This has the making of some extremely volitile swings in the market. It should be great for options trading as long as you are on the right side of the bet.

[LA_Renter]

“Look for the Fed. Govt to step in soon”

That is the wild card in the market right now. Cramer pitched an idea today and stated that he thought the govt should take MBIA and Ambac over, dispose of the assets selling the good ones to Buffett, and close the operations down. He said it was not a matter of….IF….they fail, but rather…When….they fail. The govt could then guarentee the $500 Bil of bad paper at .50 on the dollar with a tax payer cost of $250 Bil. He said the Dow would go up 2000 pts if this was enacted. Cramer has some extremely high level players feeding him this info so I would not dismiss this. Here is a post at Calculated Risk on the impact of the dissolution these companies

http://calculatedrisk.blogspot.com/2008/01/fitch-cuts-ambac-rating-to-aa.html

“The destruction of the bond insurers would likely bring write-downs at major banks and financial institutions that would put current write-downs to shame,” Tamara Kravec, an analyst at Banc of America Securities, wrote in a note Friday.”

This is turning into a very big story and is IMO the primary reason there has been no bounce…….NO BOUNCE…….in the stock market this week. If you are placing large bets shorting this market a large govt bailout of this type is your biggest risk, talk about a short squeeze. If such a bailout gets put in place the large players will know first long before it makes it across any newswire. Pay attention to the options of the financials. If you see heavy call activity start taking place cover any short position you have. On the other hand if these monolines go under you will see an equally large move down which may be the trigger for the govt to step in. I have a feeling it will be one or the other. This has the making of some extremely volitile swings in the market. It should be great for options trading as long as you are on the right side of the bet.

[LA_Renter]

“Look for the Fed. Govt to step in soon”

That is the wild card in the market right now. Cramer pitched an idea today and stated that he thought the govt should take MBIA and Ambac over, dispose of the assets selling the good ones to Buffett, and close the operations down. He said it was not a matter of….IF….they fail, but rather…When….they fail. The govt could then guarentee the $500 Bil of bad paper at .50 on the dollar with a tax payer cost of $250 Bil. He said the Dow would go up 2000 pts if this was enacted. Cramer has some extremely high level players feeding him this info so I would not dismiss this. Here is a post at Calculated Risk on the impact of the dissolution these companies

http://calculatedrisk.blogspot.com/2008/01/fitch-cuts-ambac-rating-to-aa.html

“The destruction of the bond insurers would likely bring write-downs at major banks and financial institutions that would put current write-downs to shame,” Tamara Kravec, an analyst at Banc of America Securities, wrote in a note Friday.”

This is turning into a very big story and is IMO the primary reason there has been no bounce…….NO BOUNCE…….in the stock market this week. If you are placing large bets shorting this market a large govt bailout of this type is your biggest risk, talk about a short squeeze. If such a bailout gets put in place the large players will know first long before it makes it across any newswire. Pay attention to the options of the financials. If you see heavy call activity start taking place cover any short position you have. On the other hand if these monolines go under you will see an equally large move down which may be the trigger for the govt to step in. I have a feeling it will be one or the other. This has the making of some extremely volitile swings in the market. It should be great for options trading as long as you are on the right side of the bet.

[LA_Renter]

“Look for the Fed. Govt to step in soon”

That is the wild card in the market right now. Cramer pitched an idea today and stated that he thought the govt should take MBIA and Ambac over, dispose of the assets selling the good ones to Buffett, and close the operations down. He said it was not a matter of….IF….they fail, but rather…When….they fail. The govt could then guarentee the $500 Bil of bad paper at .50 on the dollar with a tax payer cost of $250 Bil. He said the Dow would go up 2000 pts if this was enacted. Cramer has some extremely high level players feeding him this info so I would not dismiss this. Here is a post at Calculated Risk on the impact of the dissolution these companies

http://calculatedrisk.blogspot.com/2008/01/fitch-cuts-ambac-rating-to-aa.html

“The destruction of the bond insurers would likely bring write-downs at major banks and financial institutions that would put current write-downs to shame,” Tamara Kravec, an analyst at Banc of America Securities, wrote in a note Friday.”

This is turning into a very big story and is IMO the primary reason there has been no bounce…….NO BOUNCE…….in the stock market this week. If you are placing large bets shorting this market a large govt bailout of this type is your biggest risk, talk about a short squeeze. If such a bailout gets put in place the large players will know first long before it makes it across any newswire. Pay attention to the options of the financials. If you see heavy call activity start taking place cover any short position you have. On the other hand if these monolines go under you will see an equally large move down which may be the trigger for the govt to step in. I have a feeling it will be one or the other. This has the making of some extremely volitile swings in the market. It should be great for options trading as long as you are on the right side of the bet.

[LA_Renter]

“Look for the Fed. Govt to step in soon”

That is the wild card in the market right now. Cramer pitched an idea today and stated that he thought the govt should take MBIA and Ambac over, dispose of the assets selling the good ones to Buffett, and close the operations down. He said it was not a matter of….IF….they fail, but rather…When….they fail. The govt could then guarentee the $500 Bil of bad paper at .50 on the dollar with a tax payer cost of $250 Bil. He said the Dow would go up 2000 pts if this was enacted. Cramer has some extremely high level players feeding him this info so I would not dismiss this. Here is a post at Calculated Risk on the impact of the dissolution these companies

http://calculatedrisk.blogspot.com/2008/01/fitch-cuts-ambac-rating-to-aa.html

“The destruction of the bond insurers would likely bring write-downs at major banks and financial institutions that would put current write-downs to shame,” Tamara Kravec, an analyst at Banc of America Securities, wrote in a note Friday.”

This is turning into a very big story and is IMO the primary reason there has been no bounce…….NO BOUNCE…….in the stock market this week. If you are placing large bets shorting this market a large govt bailout of this type is your biggest risk, talk about a short squeeze. If such a bailout gets put in place the large players will know first long before it makes it across any newswire. Pay attention to the options of the financials. If you see heavy call activity start taking place cover any short position you have. On the other hand if these monolines go under you will see an equally large move down which may be the trigger for the govt to step in. I have a feeling it will be one or the other. This has the making of some extremely volitile swings in the market. It should be great for options trading as long as you are on the right side of the bet.

[drunkle]

seems perfect for a straddle… such large swings either way could make your losing straddle a pittance relative to the gains…

[drunkle]

seems perfect for a straddle… such large swings either way could make your losing straddle a pittance relative to the gains…

[drunkle]

seems perfect for a straddle… such large swings either way could make your losing straddle a pittance relative to the gains…

[drunkle]

seems perfect for a straddle… such large swings either way could make your losing straddle a pittance relative to the gains…

[Author]

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