Derby Hill in CV???

[Raybyrnes]

Never said you were bitter but there are plenty on the board who are wishing the worst for people. I don’t want to see people lose their homes. In fact if things were ever to get as negative as many beleive on this board it would be time for all to pick up and go becaue everyones job would be on the line. I personally do not see things going there.

Here is one other consideration. I gave a 20 year time hoizen and this was a petty safe bet. Probably safer than holding cash if you figured on inflation and taxes eating into more conservative holding such as cash or bonds. But how about the last month. S & P , the Dow etc are down 10% in a month. I don’t know about you but my 401k and investmetns have sure changed. So are you thinking that the home you are living in and using for shelter that volitile in the short run.

People will aregue the time horizon is either too long or too short and these are fair discussions but when you really boil down the purchase of your primary residence it should come down too, Can I be happy here and can I afford it. If both of those answers are yes and you see something now I am not going to go on a diatribe about why you shouldn’t buy. I probably will bring you a house warming gift and congratualte you for having developed yourself enough professionally to be able to afford your home.

The way I see it a home purchased at a bad time is still probably better than leasing the new Beamer or buying a rolex watch, buying a bottle of Cristal at a club downtown. A home also provides stability and sometimes takes that itch of moving jobs out of your blood when things get tough at work. Again these are all benefits when you know what you can afford before you purcahse.

[Bugs]

All the speculation about when will be the best time and how low it will go is really just a tangent to the real question a would-be buyer faces today:

Is now a good time to buy?

Virtually everyone who has been actively watching the market knows that now is a horrible time to buy from an economic standpoint. There are other reasons to buy a home and for a few people those reasons may outweigh their tolerance for losses, but they are a small minority.

Contrary to what a few of you are saying you don’t need to be a genius to recognize when inventory is vastly exceeding effective demand – you just need to be actively watching those numbers. The only reason many people don’t look for buy vs. sell periods is because they don’t understand the RE market runs in cycles and they don’t recognize the fact that behind every peak is a trough and beyond that there will always be another cycle.

$100,000 saved is about $200,000 earned. And vice versa. Losing $200k on a house is a loss that most people can never economically recover from without bankruptcy. That makes this decision a really big deal for most people.

I have no doubt that those people who are spending the time and effort to follow the RE markets will be in a position to recognize the right time for them to buy. Whether they’ll be in a position to do so at that time is a different story.

Between now and then, we Piggs are mainly just entertaining ourselves with the idle speculation about when and how much. Having answered the big question that now is not the time to buy, we’re just passing time.

We don’t have to be right for the next 20 years, we just have to be right for the next 30 days; and when that’s over, the next 30 days after that, and so on.

[Bugs]

All the speculation about when will be the best time and how low it will go is really just a tangent to the real question a would-be buyer faces today:

Is now a good time to buy?

Virtually everyone who has been actively watching the market knows that now is a horrible time to buy from an economic standpoint. There are other reasons to buy a home and for a few people those reasons may outweigh their tolerance for losses, but they are a small minority.

Contrary to what a few of you are saying you don’t need to be a genius to recognize when inventory is vastly exceeding effective demand – you just need to be actively watching those numbers. The only reason many people don’t look for buy vs. sell periods is because they don’t understand the RE market runs in cycles and they don’t recognize the fact that behind every peak is a trough and beyond that there will always be another cycle.

$100,000 saved is about $200,000 earned. And vice versa. Losing $200k on a house is a loss that most people can never economically recover from without bankruptcy. That makes this decision a really big deal for most people.

I have no doubt that those people who are spending the time and effort to follow the RE markets will be in a position to recognize the right time for them to buy. Whether they’ll be in a position to do so at that time is a different story.

Between now and then, we Piggs are mainly just entertaining ourselves with the idle speculation about when and how much. Having answered the big question that now is not the time to buy, we’re just passing time.

We don’t have to be right for the next 20 years, we just have to be right for the next 30 days; and when that’s over, the next 30 days after that, and so on.

[Bugs]

All the speculation about when will be the best time and how low it will go is really just a tangent to the real question a would-be buyer faces today:

Is now a good time to buy?

Virtually everyone who has been actively watching the market knows that now is a horrible time to buy from an economic standpoint. There are other reasons to buy a home and for a few people those reasons may outweigh their tolerance for losses, but they are a small minority.

Contrary to what a few of you are saying you don’t need to be a genius to recognize when inventory is vastly exceeding effective demand – you just need to be actively watching those numbers. The only reason many people don’t look for buy vs. sell periods is because they don’t understand the RE market runs in cycles and they don’t recognize the fact that behind every peak is a trough and beyond that there will always be another cycle.

$100,000 saved is about $200,000 earned. And vice versa. Losing $200k on a house is a loss that most people can never economically recover from without bankruptcy. That makes this decision a really big deal for most people.

I have no doubt that those people who are spending the time and effort to follow the RE markets will be in a position to recognize the right time for them to buy. Whether they’ll be in a position to do so at that time is a different story.

Between now and then, we Piggs are mainly just entertaining ourselves with the idle speculation about when and how much. Having answered the big question that now is not the time to buy, we’re just passing time.

We don’t have to be right for the next 20 years, we just have to be right for the next 30 days; and when that’s over, the next 30 days after that, and so on.

[Bugs]

BTW, most of the new home subdivisions in Carlsbad are already showing losses of 10% and more off their respective peaks. CV may not be cracking yet, but if the current trend continues it’s day will come too. If the region takes the 50% hit, CV may only take 35% because it does have that more central location to meaningful employment.

I daresay that 35% of $900k is a lot of money to most people, even those who live in CV.

[Bugs]

BTW, most of the new home subdivisions in Carlsbad are already showing losses of 10% and more off their respective peaks. CV may not be cracking yet, but if the current trend continues it’s day will come too. If the region takes the 50% hit, CV may only take 35% because it does have that more central location to meaningful employment.

I daresay that 35% of $900k is a lot of money to most people, even those who live in CV.

[Bugs]

BTW, most of the new home subdivisions in Carlsbad are already showing losses of 10% and more off their respective peaks. CV may not be cracking yet, but if the current trend continues it’s day will come too. If the region takes the 50% hit, CV may only take 35% because it does have that more central location to meaningful employment.

I daresay that 35% of $900k is a lot of money to most people, even those who live in CV.

[Reality]

Never said you were bitter but there are plenty on the board who are wishing the worst for people.

That’s a bunch of crap. I’ve seen no posts “wishing the worst for people”.

There’s a difference between wishing someone ill and expecting and betting on a return to economic sanity in the local real estate market.

That difference must be beyond your comprehension.

[Reality]

Never said you were bitter but there are plenty on the board who are wishing the worst for people.

That’s a bunch of crap. I’ve seen no posts “wishing the worst for people”.

There’s a difference between wishing someone ill and expecting and betting on a return to economic sanity in the local real estate market.

That difference must be beyond your comprehension.

[Reality]

Never said you were bitter but there are plenty on the board who are wishing the worst for people.

That’s a bunch of crap. I’ve seen no posts “wishing the worst for people”.

There’s a difference between wishing someone ill and expecting and betting on a return to economic sanity in the local real estate market.

That difference must be beyond your comprehension.

[Raybyrnes]

JohnAlt91941

Stop fooling yourself John, there are plenty of posters who will outright tell you that they are hoping for a bloodbath for people. This is not something that I am making up. Read the board . I have been on here for close to 2 years. Believe me ther are some bitter people. I won’t even waste my time pointing out the different threads.

[Raybyrnes]

JohnAlt91941

Stop fooling yourself John, there are plenty of posters who will outright tell you that they are hoping for a bloodbath for people. This is not something that I am making up. Read the board . I have been on here for close to 2 years. Believe me ther are some bitter people. I won’t even waste my time pointing out the different threads.

[Raybyrnes]

JohnAlt91941

Stop fooling yourself John, there are plenty of posters who will outright tell you that they are hoping for a bloodbath for people. This is not something that I am making up. Read the board . I have been on here for close to 2 years. Believe me ther are some bitter people. I won’t even waste my time pointing out the different threads.

[Reality]

A return to fundamentals (which I think is unavoidable eventually) will result in what could be termed a bloodbath (is it just the word you don’t like?).

Folks on the sidelines may be hoping for the drop in price in order for them to have a buying opportunity. Homeowners who really can’t afford their place will be hurt. Too bad.

Sorry we’re not all as compassionate as you.

[Reality]

A return to fundamentals (which I think is unavoidable eventually) will result in what could be termed a bloodbath (is it just the word you don’t like?).

Folks on the sidelines may be hoping for the drop in price in order for them to have a buying opportunity. Homeowners who really can’t afford their place will be hurt. Too bad.

Sorry we’re not all as compassionate as you.

[Author]

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