Derby Hill in CV???

[PadreBrian]

Yeah, nice small homes with low taxes and low hoa. BUT, they are 200k too high for “starter homes”. Doctors and dentists aren’t going to pay high 800’s for a starter home. With the passing of stated income loans and zero down, those are the only people that can afford such a house now.

[sdcellar]

Ray– I don’t mean this antagonistically and it’s also personal, so please don’t answer unless you want to, but does the situation you describe apply to you? That is, did you first try to buy in 1999 and you were unable to or didn’t for some reason?

If so, then I can understand more of where you’re coming from with regard to timing. If not, that’s okay too. I don’t always use examples that apply directly to my life experience. Just curious.

[sdcellar]

Ray– I don’t mean this antagonistically and it’s also personal, so please don’t answer unless you want to, but does the situation you describe apply to you? That is, did you first try to buy in 1999 and you were unable to or didn’t for some reason?

If so, then I can understand more of where you’re coming from with regard to timing. If not, that’s okay too. I don’t always use examples that apply directly to my life experience. Just curious.

[sdcellar]

Ray– I don’t mean this antagonistically and it’s also personal, so please don’t answer unless you want to, but does the situation you describe apply to you? That is, did you first try to buy in 1999 and you were unable to or didn’t for some reason?

If so, then I can understand more of where you’re coming from with regard to timing. If not, that’s okay too. I don’t always use examples that apply directly to my life experience. Just curious.

[Raybyrnes]

sdcellar

The hypothetical does not pertain to my own experience. In 99 I moved out here and had no idea as to whether I was going to stay or go. The thought of buying a home really was not there. As pointed out by someone else on the board I was young and was focused on establishing myself in my carreer.

But with respect to timing, there seems to be a contingent on this board that keeps bringing up market cycles. As I see it, this argument seems extremely counter intuitive because a market cycle would always suggest that at some point if your holding time is long enough you come out ahead. This is true of the stock market aswell. I like the Americans Funds. It can be pointed out that there has never been a 20 year period of time where if you held your fund that you would have lost money.

World war 1 was a bad time to buy but those who bought and hold made money. WW11, Vietnam Black monday were all times that were the wrong time to buy. Now I challenge anyone to say that long period of time do not produce the same buying sckepticism with housing. It is the wrong time to buy because….

When is the right time to buy. How about when I am established in my carreer, I have a year reserve , I am able to max out my 401K, I can handle a 30 year fixed rate, I found a property I love, a school system that helps me avoid the high cost of private schools etc. If now is that time for people then so be it. Maybe a sellers panic is there buying opportunity. That doesn’t mean I am there yet but I am not bitter about that.

[Raybyrnes]

sdcellar

The hypothetical does not pertain to my own experience. In 99 I moved out here and had no idea as to whether I was going to stay or go. The thought of buying a home really was not there. As pointed out by someone else on the board I was young and was focused on establishing myself in my carreer.

But with respect to timing, there seems to be a contingent on this board that keeps bringing up market cycles. As I see it, this argument seems extremely counter intuitive because a market cycle would always suggest that at some point if your holding time is long enough you come out ahead. This is true of the stock market aswell. I like the Americans Funds. It can be pointed out that there has never been a 20 year period of time where if you held your fund that you would have lost money.

World war 1 was a bad time to buy but those who bought and hold made money. WW11, Vietnam Black monday were all times that were the wrong time to buy. Now I challenge anyone to say that long period of time do not produce the same buying sckepticism with housing. It is the wrong time to buy because….

When is the right time to buy. How about when I am established in my carreer, I have a year reserve , I am able to max out my 401K, I can handle a 30 year fixed rate, I found a property I love, a school system that helps me avoid the high cost of private schools etc. If now is that time for people then so be it. Maybe a sellers panic is there buying opportunity. That doesn’t mean I am there yet but I am not bitter about that.

[Raybyrnes]

sdcellar

The hypothetical does not pertain to my own experience. In 99 I moved out here and had no idea as to whether I was going to stay or go. The thought of buying a home really was not there. As pointed out by someone else on the board I was young and was focused on establishing myself in my carreer.

But with respect to timing, there seems to be a contingent on this board that keeps bringing up market cycles. As I see it, this argument seems extremely counter intuitive because a market cycle would always suggest that at some point if your holding time is long enough you come out ahead. This is true of the stock market aswell. I like the Americans Funds. It can be pointed out that there has never been a 20 year period of time where if you held your fund that you would have lost money.

World war 1 was a bad time to buy but those who bought and hold made money. WW11, Vietnam Black monday were all times that were the wrong time to buy. Now I challenge anyone to say that long period of time do not produce the same buying sckepticism with housing. It is the wrong time to buy because….

When is the right time to buy. How about when I am established in my carreer, I have a year reserve , I am able to max out my 401K, I can handle a 30 year fixed rate, I found a property I love, a school system that helps me avoid the high cost of private schools etc. If now is that time for people then so be it. Maybe a sellers panic is there buying opportunity. That doesn’t mean I am there yet but I am not bitter about that.

[peterk2001]

sdcellar –

thanks again for the insight…Just to clarify from your earlier post, I was saying that La Jolla is not all that it is cracked up to be…The schools are part of the San Diego Unified School District, thus are subject to busing and certain “liberal ideas” which dumb things down toward the mean, etc.(i won’t go into details”….But mainly I was saying that offers have been getting accepted well below the lower end of the value range..Plus I live in one of those stupid gated communities in La Jolla where homes are sitting on the market for more than a year…

I think upper middle class families are flocking to the CV and that is why the prices are holding up…Doctors and lawyers are essentially recession proof…people always get sick and there are always lawsuits…

I am just trying to figure out if the CV will be stable in the short term or get sucked down with the rest of the market….

[peterk2001]

sdcellar –

thanks again for the insight…Just to clarify from your earlier post, I was saying that La Jolla is not all that it is cracked up to be…The schools are part of the San Diego Unified School District, thus are subject to busing and certain “liberal ideas” which dumb things down toward the mean, etc.(i won’t go into details”….But mainly I was saying that offers have been getting accepted well below the lower end of the value range..Plus I live in one of those stupid gated communities in La Jolla where homes are sitting on the market for more than a year…

I think upper middle class families are flocking to the CV and that is why the prices are holding up…Doctors and lawyers are essentially recession proof…people always get sick and there are always lawsuits…

I am just trying to figure out if the CV will be stable in the short term or get sucked down with the rest of the market….

[peterk2001]

sdcellar –

thanks again for the insight…Just to clarify from your earlier post, I was saying that La Jolla is not all that it is cracked up to be…The schools are part of the San Diego Unified School District, thus are subject to busing and certain “liberal ideas” which dumb things down toward the mean, etc.(i won’t go into details”….But mainly I was saying that offers have been getting accepted well below the lower end of the value range..Plus I live in one of those stupid gated communities in La Jolla where homes are sitting on the market for more than a year…

I think upper middle class families are flocking to the CV and that is why the prices are holding up…Doctors and lawyers are essentially recession proof…people always get sick and there are always lawsuits…

I am just trying to figure out if the CV will be stable in the short term or get sucked down with the rest of the market….

[sdcellar]

Thanks for the answer, Ray. I hear what you’re saying about the long term, but keep in mind that a lot of folks don’t hold on for 20 year, especially first time buyers. Frankly, it’s a lot easier to hold on to a stock for 20 years than it is to hold on to a home (stock certificates being just a bit more mobile).

Also, I don’t see cautioning people about the risks of buying at the present time as a display of bitterness. I know I come off as strong as anyone with my “don’t buy now” sentiment, but I am anything but bitter. Rather, I don’t want to see good people get stuck with a home they *have* to hold on to just to break even some number of years down the road.

[sdcellar]

Thanks for the answer, Ray. I hear what you’re saying about the long term, but keep in mind that a lot of folks don’t hold on for 20 year, especially first time buyers. Frankly, it’s a lot easier to hold on to a stock for 20 years than it is to hold on to a home (stock certificates being just a bit more mobile).

Also, I don’t see cautioning people about the risks of buying at the present time as a display of bitterness. I know I come off as strong as anyone with my “don’t buy now” sentiment, but I am anything but bitter. Rather, I don’t want to see good people get stuck with a home they *have* to hold on to just to break even some number of years down the road.

[sdcellar]

Thanks for the answer, Ray. I hear what you’re saying about the long term, but keep in mind that a lot of folks don’t hold on for 20 year, especially first time buyers. Frankly, it’s a lot easier to hold on to a stock for 20 years than it is to hold on to a home (stock certificates being just a bit more mobile).

Also, I don’t see cautioning people about the risks of buying at the present time as a display of bitterness. I know I come off as strong as anyone with my “don’t buy now” sentiment, but I am anything but bitter. Rather, I don’t want to see good people get stuck with a home they *have* to hold on to just to break even some number of years down the road.

[Raybyrnes]

Never said you were bitter but there are plenty on the board who are wishing the worst for people. I don’t want to see people lose their homes. In fact if things were ever to get as negative as many beleive on this board it would be time for all to pick up and go becaue everyones job would be on the line. I personally do not see things going there.

Here is one other consideration. I gave a 20 year time hoizen and this was a petty safe bet. Probably safer than holding cash if you figured on inflation and taxes eating into more conservative holding such as cash or bonds. But how about the last month. S & P , the Dow etc are down 10% in a month. I don’t know about you but my 401k and investmetns have sure changed. So are you thinking that the home you are living in and using for shelter that volitile in the short run.

People will aregue the time horizon is either too long or too short and these are fair discussions but when you really boil down the purchase of your primary residence it should come down too, Can I be happy here and can I afford it. If both of those answers are yes and you see something now I am not going to go on a diatribe about why you shouldn’t buy. I probably will bring you a house warming gift and congratualte you for having developed yourself enough professionally to be able to afford your home.

The way I see it a home purchased at a bad time is still probably better than leasing the new Beamer or buying a rolex watch, buying a bottle of Cristal at a club downtown. A home also provides stability and sometimes takes that itch of moving jobs out of your blood when things get tough at work. Again these are all benefits when you know what you can afford before you purcahse.

[Raybyrnes]

Never said you were bitter but there are plenty on the board who are wishing the worst for people. I don’t want to see people lose their homes. In fact if things were ever to get as negative as many beleive on this board it would be time for all to pick up and go becaue everyones job would be on the line. I personally do not see things going there.

Here is one other consideration. I gave a 20 year time hoizen and this was a petty safe bet. Probably safer than holding cash if you figured on inflation and taxes eating into more conservative holding such as cash or bonds. But how about the last month. S & P , the Dow etc are down 10% in a month. I don’t know about you but my 401k and investmetns have sure changed. So are you thinking that the home you are living in and using for shelter that volitile in the short run.

People will aregue the time horizon is either too long or too short and these are fair discussions but when you really boil down the purchase of your primary residence it should come down too, Can I be happy here and can I afford it. If both of those answers are yes and you see something now I am not going to go on a diatribe about why you shouldn’t buy. I probably will bring you a house warming gift and congratualte you for having developed yourself enough professionally to be able to afford your home.

The way I see it a home purchased at a bad time is still probably better than leasing the new Beamer or buying a rolex watch, buying a bottle of Cristal at a club downtown. A home also provides stability and sometimes takes that itch of moving jobs out of your blood when things get tough at work. Again these are all benefits when you know what you can afford before you purcahse.

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