Carmel Valley Monitor

[Alex_angel]

Good points rustico. What people don’t get is that sure housing may be down 10-20% over the next few years but interest rates will be up couple percent so what happens? A complete wash. The decrease people will expect for their monthly payments due to a cheaper home won’t happen because the higher interest rates will bring the payments back up.

[Alex_angel]

Good points rustico. What people don’t get is that sure housing may be down 10-20% over the next few years but interest rates will be up couple percent so what happens? A complete wash. The decrease people will expect for their monthly payments due to a cheaper home won’t happen because the higher interest rates will bring the payments back up.

[Coronita]

Good points rustico. What people don't get is that sure housing may be down 10-20% over the next few years but interest rates will be up couple percent so what happens? A complete wash. The decrease people will expect for their monthly payments due to a cheaper home won't happen because the higher interest rates will bring the payments back up.

Yes, the clock is ticking. The issues that I see is that is that even though home prices are falling,inflation is creeping up pretty fast (despite what the gov is telling you). Also, mortgage rates aren't going to stay this low, especially when gov starts to tighten…That and the dollar keeps falling. So i think the idea of just "saving" to buy a home in the future might have issues unless you're also actively trying to keep your saved dollars above inflation and the dollar's decline.

[Coronita]

Good points rustico. What people don't get is that sure housing may be down 10-20% over the next few years but interest rates will be up couple percent so what happens? A complete wash. The decrease people will expect for their monthly payments due to a cheaper home won't happen because the higher interest rates will bring the payments back up.

Yes, the clock is ticking. The issues that I see is that is that even though home prices are falling,inflation is creeping up pretty fast (despite what the gov is telling you). Also, mortgage rates aren't going to stay this low, especially when gov starts to tighten…That and the dollar keeps falling. So i think the idea of just "saving" to buy a home in the future might have issues unless you're also actively trying to keep your saved dollars above inflation and the dollar's decline.

[sdrealtor]

Rustico,
It looks like a couple posters took your points out of context. Reading your post, it seems to me we conduct our business much the same way. While I dont think any of us can say our clients “will never be upside down”, I cant imagine any of my clients losing their homes based upon what they spent relative to their financial status. This goes for wealthy and not so wealthy. To me, extraordinary people can be so without being wealthy just as wealthy people can average. I don’t know where you got your ideas about me but I am anything but a marketing whore. Most of my business comes to via referals, my social network or people i simply run into who appreciate my honest straight forward approach. I have NEVER put commissions ahead of my clients interests and the day I am asked to is the day i leave the business which like you is far from my soul source of income. I try to help my clients make decisions for themselves the way I do for myself and I am very very fiscally conservative. My vehicle is modest/paid off and I wear my shoes until there are holes in the soles. The pseudonym was chosen so people would immendiately know who the comments were coming from and has never been an attempt to gain business. Our approach to adding clients is actually identical.

To me something special, is the best possible home someone can get for their money at that point in time. It is a home that will meet their needs well beyond the time they expect to live. It is a home purchased with the eye of seller in that you never know what type of market you will be selling into so you better have one that will sell relatively quickly even in bad times.

Hang around and contribute. You will find we are very similar in our beliefs.

BTW, I am an idealist also. I do not blame our industry because I have worked in enough industries to understand what happened here happens everywhere in a capitalist society.

[sdrealtor]

Rustico,
It looks like a couple posters took your points out of context. Reading your post, it seems to me we conduct our business much the same way. While I dont think any of us can say our clients “will never be upside down”, I cant imagine any of my clients losing their homes based upon what they spent relative to their financial status. This goes for wealthy and not so wealthy. To me, extraordinary people can be so without being wealthy just as wealthy people can average. I don’t know where you got your ideas about me but I am anything but a marketing whore. Most of my business comes to via referals, my social network or people i simply run into who appreciate my honest straight forward approach. I have NEVER put commissions ahead of my clients interests and the day I am asked to is the day i leave the business which like you is far from my soul source of income. I try to help my clients make decisions for themselves the way I do for myself and I am very very fiscally conservative. My vehicle is modest/paid off and I wear my shoes until there are holes in the soles. The pseudonym was chosen so people would immendiately know who the comments were coming from and has never been an attempt to gain business. Our approach to adding clients is actually identical.

To me something special, is the best possible home someone can get for their money at that point in time. It is a home that will meet their needs well beyond the time they expect to live. It is a home purchased with the eye of seller in that you never know what type of market you will be selling into so you better have one that will sell relatively quickly even in bad times.

Hang around and contribute. You will find we are very similar in our beliefs.

BTW, I am an idealist also. I do not blame our industry because I have worked in enough industries to understand what happened here happens everywhere in a capitalist society.

[JJGittes]

This thread is pathological, really, just plain wierd.

Regarding CV, its been a strong market since it was built and it is a safe bet to assume if blood starts running in the streets there, people in other neighborhoods will be flat out drowning. In fact, it seems to me that CV is basically, and very roughly, a lagging indicator for a cbad market, and a forward indicator for a coming good market. Is that a “bellweather”, I don’t know or care…semantics anyway.

[JJGittes]

This thread is pathological, really, just plain wierd.

Regarding CV, its been a strong market since it was built and it is a safe bet to assume if blood starts running in the streets there, people in other neighborhoods will be flat out drowning. In fact, it seems to me that CV is basically, and very roughly, a lagging indicator for a cbad market, and a forward indicator for a coming good market. Is that a “bellweather”, I don’t know or care…semantics anyway.

[NotCranky]

JJ the conversation sdr and i had for the most part should have been private …obviously. They must be extremely boring.We are both way too argumentative for the “common good”. I am sure he will refute that!

About your comments..
“Regarding CV, its been a strong market since it was built and it is a safe bet to assume if blood starts running in the streets there, people in other neighborhoods will be flat out drowning”

Yes indeed , what a prime location ,comparatively good housing stock..

“In fact, it seems to me that CV is basically, and very roughly, a lagging indicator for a cbad market, and a forward indicator for a coming good market.”

On this on I agree with lagging indicator remark and thanks for bringing that pertinent insight to the discussion.I am not sure I get the forward indicator part especially in light of what was brought up about “flight to quality” giving CV good support. I think what you said at first just makes Cv strong without making it be really that great of a reflection on 90% of other markets. IMHO

[NotCranky]

JJ the conversation sdr and i had for the most part should have been private …obviously. They must be extremely boring.We are both way too argumentative for the “common good”. I am sure he will refute that!

About your comments..
“Regarding CV, its been a strong market since it was built and it is a safe bet to assume if blood starts running in the streets there, people in other neighborhoods will be flat out drowning”

Yes indeed , what a prime location ,comparatively good housing stock..

“In fact, it seems to me that CV is basically, and very roughly, a lagging indicator for a cbad market, and a forward indicator for a coming good market.”

On this on I agree with lagging indicator remark and thanks for bringing that pertinent insight to the discussion.I am not sure I get the forward indicator part especially in light of what was brought up about “flight to quality” giving CV good support. I think what you said at first just makes Cv strong without making it be really that great of a reflection on 90% of other markets. IMHO

[JJGittes]

I think CV is a rough forward/leading indicator in the sense that I would bet that any ultimate sustained upturn for the rest of the county will be preceeded by significant identifiable strength in CV. But I don’t think my view is necessarily useful info because these things are often only obvious in a rearview mirror, well after the trend is in place. If it was easy, everybody would be Bill Gates.

[JJGittes]

I think CV is a rough forward/leading indicator in the sense that I would bet that any ultimate sustained upturn for the rest of the county will be preceeded by significant identifiable strength in CV. But I don’t think my view is necessarily useful info because these things are often only obvious in a rearview mirror, well after the trend is in place. If it was easy, everybody would be Bill Gates.

[sdrealtor]

I plant some seeds and watch what grows. Let’s follow this for a while and see what happens. Hopefully the data will provoke meaning discussion and discord if relevant.

[sdrealtor]

I plant some seeds and watch what grows. Let’s follow this for a while and see what happens. Hopefully the data will provoke meaning discussion and discord if relevant.

[North County Jim]

If you’ve been around here a while you would know I have been the most villified [sic] person on this board.

Would you care to reconsider this one?

I don’t think you can hold a candle to ps.:->

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