Carmel Valley Monitor

[sdrealtor]

Rustico,
Just to be clear, my intent was not to rib you. You pushed me to challenge myself and my assumptions. I like that. I chose CV because many of the participants here follow that market and homes in the same class. I have a bad habit of using blanket statements and you have exposed that. Imagine the horro my wife goes through when I tell here everything is 5 minutes away when she asks.

I looked at San Carlos and have a few issues with using it. First the sample size is much smaller with only 61 actives and 28 pendings which btw is not stronger than the CV ratio. It is also a very homogenous range of homes with prices running from 400K to 700K (with prices higher being very rare). It could be a good measure for the entry level market.

When i look at CV I see an area with great schools close to the employement centers for the white collar professional workers that are so predominant around this blog. If I was addressing a different audience I would have chosen a different area.

[CAwireman]

sdr,

1) Thanks for focusing on CV. It is near and dear to
our (my wife’s and thus mine) hearts.

2) I completely get what you are saying about using CV
as a canary in a coal mine. I also get that there could be
or is a flight to better nieghborhoods, such as CV. But, I also believe that what goes around comes around. There could be instability in the CV area that has yet to begin visibly unraveling. Tracking this activity could show signs of unraveling. Or, it could should signs of stability. Either way, the numbers should help us to understand how that area is doing.

3) If you have the energy and time, please continue this thread despite any resistance you may receive. Thanks for aking for feedback to incorporate.

4) My feedback is this – in the Short Sale monitor, its cut and dried, last week was x and this week is y. The data presented in this thread contains about 10 elements. I have some comfort with them individually, but I don’t know how to interpret what the differences mean from post to post. So, if you could narrate the numbers so non-RE, non-finance dudes like myself can better understand any trends, that would be great.

Thanks and keep posting!

HiggyBaby

[CAwireman]

sdr,

1) Thanks for focusing on CV. It is near and dear to
our (my wife’s and thus mine) hearts.

2) I completely get what you are saying about using CV
as a canary in a coal mine. I also get that there could be
or is a flight to better nieghborhoods, such as CV. But, I also believe that what goes around comes around. There could be instability in the CV area that has yet to begin visibly unraveling. Tracking this activity could show signs of unraveling. Or, it could should signs of stability. Either way, the numbers should help us to understand how that area is doing.

3) If you have the energy and time, please continue this thread despite any resistance you may receive. Thanks for aking for feedback to incorporate.

4) My feedback is this – in the Short Sale monitor, its cut and dried, last week was x and this week is y. The data presented in this thread contains about 10 elements. I have some comfort with them individually, but I don’t know how to interpret what the differences mean from post to post. So, if you could narrate the numbers so non-RE, non-finance dudes like myself can better understand any trends, that would be great.

Thanks and keep posting!

HiggyBaby

[NotCranky]

Wive are a good thing.
I imagine, that in general I am going to let you have the last word on everything.I am sorry if you have heard that before. For me you are very slippery.It will become tiring to try to debate things to a significant level. I am simply not a frivolous person to put it in a favorable light,inspite of the fact that I have a strong irreverent streak and a big mouth.I do not wish to prove that I have insufficient social skills to participate on a blog as generally hospitable as this one is.I have some admiration for you. Lets see how it goes. Would you like to clean this mess up or leave it out here?

[NotCranky]

Wive are a good thing.
I imagine, that in general I am going to let you have the last word on everything.I am sorry if you have heard that before. For me you are very slippery.It will become tiring to try to debate things to a significant level. I am simply not a frivolous person to put it in a favorable light,inspite of the fact that I have a strong irreverent streak and a big mouth.I do not wish to prove that I have insufficient social skills to participate on a blog as generally hospitable as this one is.I have some admiration for you. Lets see how it goes. Would you like to clean this mess up or leave it out here?

[sdcellar]

sdrealtor– Frankly, I took your bellwether remark in the initial post to be more relevant to declines rather than some kind of uptick in the market. In other words, I thought you mostly meant that if we see CV go to heck, then that will confirm that the market in San Diego is generally getting worse.

I don’t find this inconsistent with the concept that it’s the less desirable areas are the true (or at least initial) indicator of a shift in the market.

There’s been a lot of discussion in various threads lately (and over time of course) regarding superior properties/areas and how they’ll be affected .

I like the idea of watching CV to get an idea when Del Mar, La Jolla and the like are (relatively) next in line (for the defecate to hit the oscillator).

[sdcellar]

sdrealtor– Frankly, I took your bellwether remark in the initial post to be more relevant to declines rather than some kind of uptick in the market. In other words, I thought you mostly meant that if we see CV go to heck, then that will confirm that the market in San Diego is generally getting worse.

I don’t find this inconsistent with the concept that it’s the less desirable areas are the true (or at least initial) indicator of a shift in the market.

There’s been a lot of discussion in various threads lately (and over time of course) regarding superior properties/areas and how they’ll be affected .

I like the idea of watching CV to get an idea when Del Mar, La Jolla and the like are (relatively) next in line (for the defecate to hit the oscillator).

[New_Renter]

sdrealtor,

Great job on the stats and glad you plan to update this weekly. Coupled with the Short Sales monitoring this is some really good data your providing. I don’t know if this is too much to ask, but it would be great each week to also see total CV SFR listings, rather than just the net change. I realize you did this for the period 5/8 to 5/14, but you didn’t for the prior week. Also, ideally the full set of stats would be broken-down into three categories: less than $1M, $1M-$2M, and $2M+. To me that would give some further useful insight. While your at it, how about Median Price per Sq. Ft.! 😉 Ha Ha, Just kidding, whatever you can provide on CV is great.

Keep up the good work.

New_Renter

[New_Renter]

sdrealtor,

Great job on the stats and glad you plan to update this weekly. Coupled with the Short Sales monitoring this is some really good data your providing. I don’t know if this is too much to ask, but it would be great each week to also see total CV SFR listings, rather than just the net change. I realize you did this for the period 5/8 to 5/14, but you didn’t for the prior week. Also, ideally the full set of stats would be broken-down into three categories: less than $1M, $1M-$2M, and $2M+. To me that would give some further useful insight. While your at it, how about Median Price per Sq. Ft.! 😉 Ha Ha, Just kidding, whatever you can provide on CV is great.

Keep up the good work.

New_Renter

[gn]

“I like the idea of watching CV to get an idea when Del Mar, La Jolla and the like are (relatively) next in line (for the defecate to hit the oscillator).”

I didn’t realize that there is an assumption by sdrealtor that most folks at Piggington are PRIMARILY interested in North County Coastal. IMHO, it’s not a good assumption.

Yes, it’s true that CV is the least expensive area in NCC. So, one can say that CV is the “canary in the coal mine” for NCC.

Since this is a public forum, I think it’s important for the posters to attempt to communicate clearly & state your “not-so-obvious” assumptions.

[gn]

“I like the idea of watching CV to get an idea when Del Mar, La Jolla and the like are (relatively) next in line (for the defecate to hit the oscillator).”

I didn’t realize that there is an assumption by sdrealtor that most folks at Piggington are PRIMARILY interested in North County Coastal. IMHO, it’s not a good assumption.

Yes, it’s true that CV is the least expensive area in NCC. So, one can say that CV is the “canary in the coal mine” for NCC.

Since this is a public forum, I think it’s important for the posters to attempt to communicate clearly & state your “not-so-obvious” assumptions.

[NotCranky]

gn I think some people are just glad to have free information and don’t care about ..the details..keeping relevant and clear,as best as is possible is un-important to them. It appears you would like to use your mind? That’s difficult with all the starstruck, CV hopefuls and other future buyers chirping in.
Excuse me, that irreverent streak just won’t go away.
I am sure I will be banned.Somebody do it and get me out of my misery!

My wife, who is smarter than me , would say that this thread is hopeless because the premise wasn’t sincere.

[NotCranky]

gn I think some people are just glad to have free information and don’t care about ..the details..keeping relevant and clear,as best as is possible is un-important to them. It appears you would like to use your mind? That’s difficult with all the starstruck, CV hopefuls and other future buyers chirping in.
Excuse me, that irreverent streak just won’t go away.
I am sure I will be banned.Somebody do it and get me out of my misery!

My wife, who is smarter than me , would say that this thread is hopeless because the premise wasn’t sincere.

[drunkle]

carmel valley is a nice area. it’s close to town, new in development, good freeway access… but it’s overpriced. cv is the least expensive in ncc? compared to oceanside?

i would say that cv is far more desireable than carlsbad, encinitas, del mar, etc for the given reasons excluding price. being inland is obviously going to affect price so i dont think it’s a far comparison.

given the choice for a very upper middle class family, cv is far and away more attractive than poway, rancho whatever, north tijuana (chula east lake), etc. that should be obvious to anyone. given that, it should stand to reason that cv will hold out longer against the tide than everywhere else. ergo, “flight to quality”, although i’d stand to reason that there is no “flight”, that demand for quality always exists. just that the demand for crap dies as speculation dies and therefore you “see” a relative “flight”.

but as far as market bellweathers are concerned, i speculate that the high end marks the market. that demand for better and better properties is sparked by “move ups”. when the supply of move-ups dwindles/dies, the high end gets hit first. the “cant-move-up-anymore” either stay still or fall down, but like a weak foundation, they no longer support the top.

evidence: median prices. if the bottom dropped while the top stayed up (in terms of sales volume and price), median prices would creep up. more evidence: biggest cuts in current prices are at the top while the bottom is still holding out.

[drunkle]

carmel valley is a nice area. it’s close to town, new in development, good freeway access… but it’s overpriced. cv is the least expensive in ncc? compared to oceanside?

i would say that cv is far more desireable than carlsbad, encinitas, del mar, etc for the given reasons excluding price. being inland is obviously going to affect price so i dont think it’s a far comparison.

given the choice for a very upper middle class family, cv is far and away more attractive than poway, rancho whatever, north tijuana (chula east lake), etc. that should be obvious to anyone. given that, it should stand to reason that cv will hold out longer against the tide than everywhere else. ergo, “flight to quality”, although i’d stand to reason that there is no “flight”, that demand for quality always exists. just that the demand for crap dies as speculation dies and therefore you “see” a relative “flight”.

but as far as market bellweathers are concerned, i speculate that the high end marks the market. that demand for better and better properties is sparked by “move ups”. when the supply of move-ups dwindles/dies, the high end gets hit first. the “cant-move-up-anymore” either stay still or fall down, but like a weak foundation, they no longer support the top.

evidence: median prices. if the bottom dropped while the top stayed up (in terms of sales volume and price), median prices would creep up. more evidence: biggest cuts in current prices are at the top while the bottom is still holding out.

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