Bubble bust and changing landscape

[stockstradr]

I think it easy to predict what happens next for San Diego.

Unemployment rates climb ABOVE 10% during the next 12-18 months of recession.

So to the existing ramp-up in foreclosures due to subprime resets (and also well-employed homeowners walking away from upside-down mortgages), we now have the middle and upper-middle class losing their jobs. So we’ll finally see the previously strong upper-middle class real estate areas (Ex.: Carmel Valley) now lose significant value, but that could take twelve to eighteen months.

This analysis ignores the likely intervention of our government in writing down mortgages, as our government is now the major residential mortgage holder.

[Eugene]

I don’t know how useful that $/sq.ft. measure is. $210/sq.ft. for a 3200 sq.ft. house is one thing, $210 for a 2500 sq.ft. house is quite another. We should look at total prices.

Right now a basic 4S McMansion, a Chanteclair or a lightly optioned Silhouette, costs around 650K. You need 130K income to prequalify with 20% down. (I actually ran the numbers with a sales agent at Silhouette in early September, she told me that they’d want to see debt to income less than 40% based on 6.5% interest rate) That’s the biggest thing that keeps people out of 4S Ranch. Not many families make that kind of money, especially single-income families.

Maybeck can drop their largest plans to 200/sq.ft., but it won’t make much impact, because it does not lower the entry barrier.

Every 50k off the entry price lowers the income requirement by 10K and bring lots more potential buyers. At 200 per sq.ft., Silhouette 1 could be had with 100K income. There are probably hundreds of single-income engineer families in San Diego in 100K-130K income bracket. Fewer than 20 houses are left in remaining phases of Silhouette.

[Eugene]

I don’t know how useful that $/sq.ft. measure is. $210/sq.ft. for a 3200 sq.ft. house is one thing, $210 for a 2500 sq.ft. house is quite another. We should look at total prices.

Right now a basic 4S McMansion, a Chanteclair or a lightly optioned Silhouette, costs around 650K. You need 130K income to prequalify with 20% down. (I actually ran the numbers with a sales agent at Silhouette in early September, she told me that they’d want to see debt to income less than 40% based on 6.5% interest rate) That’s the biggest thing that keeps people out of 4S Ranch. Not many families make that kind of money, especially single-income families.

Maybeck can drop their largest plans to 200/sq.ft., but it won’t make much impact, because it does not lower the entry barrier.

Every 50k off the entry price lowers the income requirement by 10K and bring lots more potential buyers. At 200 per sq.ft., Silhouette 1 could be had with 100K income. There are probably hundreds of single-income engineer families in San Diego in 100K-130K income bracket. Fewer than 20 houses are left in remaining phases of Silhouette.

[Eugene]

I don’t know how useful that $/sq.ft. measure is. $210/sq.ft. for a 3200 sq.ft. house is one thing, $210 for a 2500 sq.ft. house is quite another. We should look at total prices.

Right now a basic 4S McMansion, a Chanteclair or a lightly optioned Silhouette, costs around 650K. You need 130K income to prequalify with 20% down. (I actually ran the numbers with a sales agent at Silhouette in early September, she told me that they’d want to see debt to income less than 40% based on 6.5% interest rate) That’s the biggest thing that keeps people out of 4S Ranch. Not many families make that kind of money, especially single-income families.

Maybeck can drop their largest plans to 200/sq.ft., but it won’t make much impact, because it does not lower the entry barrier.

Every 50k off the entry price lowers the income requirement by 10K and bring lots more potential buyers. At 200 per sq.ft., Silhouette 1 could be had with 100K income. There are probably hundreds of single-income engineer families in San Diego in 100K-130K income bracket. Fewer than 20 houses are left in remaining phases of Silhouette.

[Eugene]

I don’t know how useful that $/sq.ft. measure is. $210/sq.ft. for a 3200 sq.ft. house is one thing, $210 for a 2500 sq.ft. house is quite another. We should look at total prices.

Right now a basic 4S McMansion, a Chanteclair or a lightly optioned Silhouette, costs around 650K. You need 130K income to prequalify with 20% down. (I actually ran the numbers with a sales agent at Silhouette in early September, she told me that they’d want to see debt to income less than 40% based on 6.5% interest rate) That’s the biggest thing that keeps people out of 4S Ranch. Not many families make that kind of money, especially single-income families.

Maybeck can drop their largest plans to 200/sq.ft., but it won’t make much impact, because it does not lower the entry barrier.

Every 50k off the entry price lowers the income requirement by 10K and bring lots more potential buyers. At 200 per sq.ft., Silhouette 1 could be had with 100K income. There are probably hundreds of single-income engineer families in San Diego in 100K-130K income bracket. Fewer than 20 houses are left in remaining phases of Silhouette.

[Eugene]

I don’t know how useful that $/sq.ft. measure is. $210/sq.ft. for a 3200 sq.ft. house is one thing, $210 for a 2500 sq.ft. house is quite another. We should look at total prices.

Right now a basic 4S McMansion, a Chanteclair or a lightly optioned Silhouette, costs around 650K. You need 130K income to prequalify with 20% down. (I actually ran the numbers with a sales agent at Silhouette in early September, she told me that they’d want to see debt to income less than 40% based on 6.5% interest rate) That’s the biggest thing that keeps people out of 4S Ranch. Not many families make that kind of money, especially single-income families.

Maybeck can drop their largest plans to 200/sq.ft., but it won’t make much impact, because it does not lower the entry barrier.

Every 50k off the entry price lowers the income requirement by 10K and bring lots more potential buyers. At 200 per sq.ft., Silhouette 1 could be had with 100K income. There are probably hundreds of single-income engineer families in San Diego in 100K-130K income bracket. Fewer than 20 houses are left in remaining phases of Silhouette.

[peterb]

“I still very much doubt that we’ll see widespread large price drops in 4S. High end above 1 mil may suffer. Unless we go through a second Great Depression, there’s enough pent-up demand for 4S Ranch to absorb all REOs.”–

Do you know all the foreclosures coming to this area? Do you know all the people who want to buy in this area? Having some kind of numbers for these assumptions would probably help your analysis.
As well as some lay-offs that may be coming.

Pretty critical data to guess about it.

[peterb]

“I still very much doubt that we’ll see widespread large price drops in 4S. High end above 1 mil may suffer. Unless we go through a second Great Depression, there’s enough pent-up demand for 4S Ranch to absorb all REOs.”–

Do you know all the foreclosures coming to this area? Do you know all the people who want to buy in this area? Having some kind of numbers for these assumptions would probably help your analysis.
As well as some lay-offs that may be coming.

Pretty critical data to guess about it.

[peterb]

“I still very much doubt that we’ll see widespread large price drops in 4S. High end above 1 mil may suffer. Unless we go through a second Great Depression, there’s enough pent-up demand for 4S Ranch to absorb all REOs.”–

Do you know all the foreclosures coming to this area? Do you know all the people who want to buy in this area? Having some kind of numbers for these assumptions would probably help your analysis.
As well as some lay-offs that may be coming.

Pretty critical data to guess about it.

[peterb]

“I still very much doubt that we’ll see widespread large price drops in 4S. High end above 1 mil may suffer. Unless we go through a second Great Depression, there’s enough pent-up demand for 4S Ranch to absorb all REOs.”–

Do you know all the foreclosures coming to this area? Do you know all the people who want to buy in this area? Having some kind of numbers for these assumptions would probably help your analysis.
As well as some lay-offs that may be coming.

Pretty critical data to guess about it.

[peterb]

“I still very much doubt that we’ll see widespread large price drops in 4S. High end above 1 mil may suffer. Unless we go through a second Great Depression, there’s enough pent-up demand for 4S Ranch to absorb all REOs.”–

Do you know all the foreclosures coming to this area? Do you know all the people who want to buy in this area? Having some kind of numbers for these assumptions would probably help your analysis.
As well as some lay-offs that may be coming.

Pretty critical data to guess about it.

[Eugene]

[quote=peterb]
Do you know all the foreclosures coming to this area? Do you know all the people who want to buy in this area? Having some kind of numbers for these assumptions would probably help your analysis.
As well as some lay-offs that may be coming.

Pretty critical data to guess about it.[/quote]

If you could poll a number of young parents and ask them where they’d want to live, your top 5 would probably look like this:
– La Jolla
– Carmel Valley
– 4S Ranch
– Poway
– Carlsbad

There are far more young parents with desire to live in 4S Ranch and send their children to 4S Ranch schools, than there are available houses. The number of school-age children in San Diego County: 500,000. The number of lots remaining in four single-family developments in 4S Ranch: probably less than 100. The number of bank-owned houses in 4S Ranch: 15.

[Eugene]

[quote=peterb]
Do you know all the foreclosures coming to this area? Do you know all the people who want to buy in this area? Having some kind of numbers for these assumptions would probably help your analysis.
As well as some lay-offs that may be coming.

Pretty critical data to guess about it.[/quote]

If you could poll a number of young parents and ask them where they’d want to live, your top 5 would probably look like this:
– La Jolla
– Carmel Valley
– 4S Ranch
– Poway
– Carlsbad

There are far more young parents with desire to live in 4S Ranch and send their children to 4S Ranch schools, than there are available houses. The number of school-age children in San Diego County: 500,000. The number of lots remaining in four single-family developments in 4S Ranch: probably less than 100. The number of bank-owned houses in 4S Ranch: 15.

[Eugene]

[quote=peterb]
Do you know all the foreclosures coming to this area? Do you know all the people who want to buy in this area? Having some kind of numbers for these assumptions would probably help your analysis.
As well as some lay-offs that may be coming.

Pretty critical data to guess about it.[/quote]

If you could poll a number of young parents and ask them where they’d want to live, your top 5 would probably look like this:
– La Jolla
– Carmel Valley
– 4S Ranch
– Poway
– Carlsbad

There are far more young parents with desire to live in 4S Ranch and send their children to 4S Ranch schools, than there are available houses. The number of school-age children in San Diego County: 500,000. The number of lots remaining in four single-family developments in 4S Ranch: probably less than 100. The number of bank-owned houses in 4S Ranch: 15.

[Eugene]

[quote=peterb]
Do you know all the foreclosures coming to this area? Do you know all the people who want to buy in this area? Having some kind of numbers for these assumptions would probably help your analysis.
As well as some lay-offs that may be coming.

Pretty critical data to guess about it.[/quote]

If you could poll a number of young parents and ask them where they’d want to live, your top 5 would probably look like this:
– La Jolla
– Carmel Valley
– 4S Ranch
– Poway
– Carlsbad

There are far more young parents with desire to live in 4S Ranch and send their children to 4S Ranch schools, than there are available houses. The number of school-age children in San Diego County: 500,000. The number of lots remaining in four single-family developments in 4S Ranch: probably less than 100. The number of bank-owned houses in 4S Ranch: 15.

[Author]

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