Bubble bust and changing landscape

[peterb]

Interesting observations and analysis. However, I think that the RE market does not exist in it’s own universe. The overall economy plays and huge and dynamic role in the condition of the RE market. Rising unemployment is going to really kill it. IMO.
(I’d be curious to know how South Park and North Park are holding up?)

If you follow Mr. Mortgage, then you will see a huge number of larger dollar loans coming into the foreclosure arena. My thesis is that these loans are in the more coveted areas like RB, 4S, etc…
An economic contraction usually hits the low-end first because they’re often already financially stressed and have little back-up reserve. As this contraction persists, it starts to effect wealthier people that have been holding-out for the recovery that has not yet arrived.

One of the realtor’s on this site brought up the concept of seeing who’s behind on their property tax payments as in indicator of financial stress. I believe this may be better than NOD’s from lenders because I think it’s public record and not subject to the crap that lenders are pulling right now in a sorry effort to save themselves.
Anyone have feedback on this?

On areas changing:It has been my experience that a recession has the opposite effect of gentrification. That is, bad areas get worse and areas that were getting gentrified start going south fast as the recession continues.

[Eugene]

Where have you seen RB not having a lot of foreclosures when 4s, Del sur and Santaluz are considered RB West and has REOs/SSs/Fore’s everywhere?

There are some foreclosures everywhere. But the ratio of REOs to houses in RB and 4S is a lot lower than south of the 8. “Everywhere” is an exagerration. I see 28 single-family REOs in all of RB (92127). SANDAG estimates 7755 houses in the zip code. One in 275 is bank-owned. In National City, the ratio is 1 in 64.

Not having foreclosures is not a defining feature of the top tier. Desirability is.

I’m not very familiar with Golden Hill, I’m just using it as an example. There’s this 3-bedroom house listed for 124k west of 805, is it Golden Hill?

http://www.redfin.com/CA/San-Diego/3268-Mclarens-92102/home/5857745

[Eugene]

Where have you seen RB not having a lot of foreclosures when 4s, Del sur and Santaluz are considered RB West and has REOs/SSs/Fore’s everywhere?

There are some foreclosures everywhere. But the ratio of REOs to houses in RB and 4S is a lot lower than south of the 8. “Everywhere” is an exagerration. I see 28 single-family REOs in all of RB (92127). SANDAG estimates 7755 houses in the zip code. One in 275 is bank-owned. In National City, the ratio is 1 in 64.

Not having foreclosures is not a defining feature of the top tier. Desirability is.

I’m not very familiar with Golden Hill, I’m just using it as an example. There’s this 3-bedroom house listed for 124k west of 805, is it Golden Hill?

http://www.redfin.com/CA/San-Diego/3268-Mclarens-92102/home/5857745

[Eugene]

Where have you seen RB not having a lot of foreclosures when 4s, Del sur and Santaluz are considered RB West and has REOs/SSs/Fore’s everywhere?

There are some foreclosures everywhere. But the ratio of REOs to houses in RB and 4S is a lot lower than south of the 8. “Everywhere” is an exagerration. I see 28 single-family REOs in all of RB (92127). SANDAG estimates 7755 houses in the zip code. One in 275 is bank-owned. In National City, the ratio is 1 in 64.

Not having foreclosures is not a defining feature of the top tier. Desirability is.

I’m not very familiar with Golden Hill, I’m just using it as an example. There’s this 3-bedroom house listed for 124k west of 805, is it Golden Hill?

http://www.redfin.com/CA/San-Diego/3268-Mclarens-92102/home/5857745

[Eugene]

Where have you seen RB not having a lot of foreclosures when 4s, Del sur and Santaluz are considered RB West and has REOs/SSs/Fore’s everywhere?

There are some foreclosures everywhere. But the ratio of REOs to houses in RB and 4S is a lot lower than south of the 8. “Everywhere” is an exagerration. I see 28 single-family REOs in all of RB (92127). SANDAG estimates 7755 houses in the zip code. One in 275 is bank-owned. In National City, the ratio is 1 in 64.

Not having foreclosures is not a defining feature of the top tier. Desirability is.

I’m not very familiar with Golden Hill, I’m just using it as an example. There’s this 3-bedroom house listed for 124k west of 805, is it Golden Hill?

http://www.redfin.com/CA/San-Diego/3268-Mclarens-92102/home/5857745

[Eugene]

Where have you seen RB not having a lot of foreclosures when 4s, Del sur and Santaluz are considered RB West and has REOs/SSs/Fore’s everywhere?

There are some foreclosures everywhere. But the ratio of REOs to houses in RB and 4S is a lot lower than south of the 8. “Everywhere” is an exagerration. I see 28 single-family REOs in all of RB (92127). SANDAG estimates 7755 houses in the zip code. One in 275 is bank-owned. In National City, the ratio is 1 in 64.

Not having foreclosures is not a defining feature of the top tier. Desirability is.

I’m not very familiar with Golden Hill, I’m just using it as an example. There’s this 3-bedroom house listed for 124k west of 805, is it Golden Hill?

http://www.redfin.com/CA/San-Diego/3268-Mclarens-92102/home/5857745

[Tavo]

Fo someone not being familiar with Golden Hill, you certainly make assertions like you know it well.

“Now the interesting one is the low tier. Places like Golden Hill….No one really likes those. I think that people live there just because they happen to own a house (maybe they’ve inherited it…)”.

by the way, I would say your redfin example is in Logan Heights. True, same zip code, but pretty different market. Maybe you should visit Golden Hill sometime, it is pretty charming and very convenient to all of SD. Maybe not for you, though…

[Tavo]

Fo someone not being familiar with Golden Hill, you certainly make assertions like you know it well.

“Now the interesting one is the low tier. Places like Golden Hill….No one really likes those. I think that people live there just because they happen to own a house (maybe they’ve inherited it…)”.

by the way, I would say your redfin example is in Logan Heights. True, same zip code, but pretty different market. Maybe you should visit Golden Hill sometime, it is pretty charming and very convenient to all of SD. Maybe not for you, though…

[Tavo]

Fo someone not being familiar with Golden Hill, you certainly make assertions like you know it well.

“Now the interesting one is the low tier. Places like Golden Hill….No one really likes those. I think that people live there just because they happen to own a house (maybe they’ve inherited it…)”.

by the way, I would say your redfin example is in Logan Heights. True, same zip code, but pretty different market. Maybe you should visit Golden Hill sometime, it is pretty charming and very convenient to all of SD. Maybe not for you, though…

[Tavo]

Fo someone not being familiar with Golden Hill, you certainly make assertions like you know it well.

“Now the interesting one is the low tier. Places like Golden Hill….No one really likes those. I think that people live there just because they happen to own a house (maybe they’ve inherited it…)”.

by the way, I would say your redfin example is in Logan Heights. True, same zip code, but pretty different market. Maybe you should visit Golden Hill sometime, it is pretty charming and very convenient to all of SD. Maybe not for you, though…

[Tavo]

Fo someone not being familiar with Golden Hill, you certainly make assertions like you know it well.

“Now the interesting one is the low tier. Places like Golden Hill….No one really likes those. I think that people live there just because they happen to own a house (maybe they’ve inherited it…)”.

by the way, I would say your redfin example is in Logan Heights. True, same zip code, but pretty different market. Maybe you should visit Golden Hill sometime, it is pretty charming and very convenient to all of SD. Maybe not for you, though…

[Eugene]

I’m more familiar with Encanto. Let’s substitute Encanto for all occurrences of “Golden Hill” in this thread.

[Eugene]

I’m more familiar with Encanto. Let’s substitute Encanto for all occurrences of “Golden Hill” in this thread.

[Eugene]

I’m more familiar with Encanto. Let’s substitute Encanto for all occurrences of “Golden Hill” in this thread.

[Eugene]

I’m more familiar with Encanto. Let’s substitute Encanto for all occurrences of “Golden Hill” in this thread.

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