Bubble bust and changing landscape

[patientlywaiting]

esmith, i remember about year ago, you dismissed large price drops in 4S. I think that you need to reconsider your position.

Everything is interconnected.

[Eugene]

I still very much doubt that we’ll see widespread large price drops in 4S. High end above 1 mil may suffer. Unless we go through a second Great Depression, there’s enough pent-up demand for 4S Ranch to absorb all REOs.

Maybeck plan 1 was starting at $702,000 1.5 years ago. Today they are asking $673,805.

Pienza plan 2901 lot 829 was offered for $707,890 in April ’07. Today the cheapest Pienza is $725,490.

[Eugene]

I still very much doubt that we’ll see widespread large price drops in 4S. High end above 1 mil may suffer. Unless we go through a second Great Depression, there’s enough pent-up demand for 4S Ranch to absorb all REOs.

Maybeck plan 1 was starting at $702,000 1.5 years ago. Today they are asking $673,805.

Pienza plan 2901 lot 829 was offered for $707,890 in April ’07. Today the cheapest Pienza is $725,490.

[Eugene]

I still very much doubt that we’ll see widespread large price drops in 4S. High end above 1 mil may suffer. Unless we go through a second Great Depression, there’s enough pent-up demand for 4S Ranch to absorb all REOs.

Maybeck plan 1 was starting at $702,000 1.5 years ago. Today they are asking $673,805.

Pienza plan 2901 lot 829 was offered for $707,890 in April ’07. Today the cheapest Pienza is $725,490.

[Eugene]

I still very much doubt that we’ll see widespread large price drops in 4S. High end above 1 mil may suffer. Unless we go through a second Great Depression, there’s enough pent-up demand for 4S Ranch to absorb all REOs.

Maybeck plan 1 was starting at $702,000 1.5 years ago. Today they are asking $673,805.

Pienza plan 2901 lot 829 was offered for $707,890 in April ’07. Today the cheapest Pienza is $725,490.

[Eugene]

I still very much doubt that we’ll see widespread large price drops in 4S. High end above 1 mil may suffer. Unless we go through a second Great Depression, there’s enough pent-up demand for 4S Ranch to absorb all REOs.

Maybeck plan 1 was starting at $702,000 1.5 years ago. Today they are asking $673,805.

Pienza plan 2901 lot 829 was offered for $707,890 in April ’07. Today the cheapest Pienza is $725,490.

[LAAFTERHOURS]

Regarding 4s ranch:

Recent sales on ralphs ranch road, silver pine, silver crest etc were down to 210 a sq ft. (all between 210 and 220)

So lets assume that we could easily hit 200 a sq ft by spring or at latest next fall if there are further price drops in 4s (Most assume san diego should see more of a decline).

So at 200 a sq ft, a 3000 sq ft home should go for 600K.

So assuming 200 per sq ft, Maybeck should sell for 560-740K.

It means that the Bank REOs that are frequenting my development at 500K should be going for under 400K. I think the maybeck prices breaching mid 5s isnt out of the question.

This is just my opinion and not an attack on yours. Imagine what happens if this financial mess continues..

[LAAFTERHOURS]

Regarding 4s ranch:

Recent sales on ralphs ranch road, silver pine, silver crest etc were down to 210 a sq ft. (all between 210 and 220)

So lets assume that we could easily hit 200 a sq ft by spring or at latest next fall if there are further price drops in 4s (Most assume san diego should see more of a decline).

So at 200 a sq ft, a 3000 sq ft home should go for 600K.

So assuming 200 per sq ft, Maybeck should sell for 560-740K.

It means that the Bank REOs that are frequenting my development at 500K should be going for under 400K. I think the maybeck prices breaching mid 5s isnt out of the question.

This is just my opinion and not an attack on yours. Imagine what happens if this financial mess continues..

[LAAFTERHOURS]

Regarding 4s ranch:

Recent sales on ralphs ranch road, silver pine, silver crest etc were down to 210 a sq ft. (all between 210 and 220)

So lets assume that we could easily hit 200 a sq ft by spring or at latest next fall if there are further price drops in 4s (Most assume san diego should see more of a decline).

So at 200 a sq ft, a 3000 sq ft home should go for 600K.

So assuming 200 per sq ft, Maybeck should sell for 560-740K.

It means that the Bank REOs that are frequenting my development at 500K should be going for under 400K. I think the maybeck prices breaching mid 5s isnt out of the question.

This is just my opinion and not an attack on yours. Imagine what happens if this financial mess continues..

[LAAFTERHOURS]

Regarding 4s ranch:

Recent sales on ralphs ranch road, silver pine, silver crest etc were down to 210 a sq ft. (all between 210 and 220)

So lets assume that we could easily hit 200 a sq ft by spring or at latest next fall if there are further price drops in 4s (Most assume san diego should see more of a decline).

So at 200 a sq ft, a 3000 sq ft home should go for 600K.

So assuming 200 per sq ft, Maybeck should sell for 560-740K.

It means that the Bank REOs that are frequenting my development at 500K should be going for under 400K. I think the maybeck prices breaching mid 5s isnt out of the question.

This is just my opinion and not an attack on yours. Imagine what happens if this financial mess continues..

[LAAFTERHOURS]

Regarding 4s ranch:

Recent sales on ralphs ranch road, silver pine, silver crest etc were down to 210 a sq ft. (all between 210 and 220)

So lets assume that we could easily hit 200 a sq ft by spring or at latest next fall if there are further price drops in 4s (Most assume san diego should see more of a decline).

So at 200 a sq ft, a 3000 sq ft home should go for 600K.

So assuming 200 per sq ft, Maybeck should sell for 560-740K.

It means that the Bank REOs that are frequenting my development at 500K should be going for under 400K. I think the maybeck prices breaching mid 5s isnt out of the question.

This is just my opinion and not an attack on yours. Imagine what happens if this financial mess continues..

[stockstradr]

I think it easy to predict what happens next for San Diego.

Unemployment rates climb ABOVE 10% during the next 12-18 months of recession.

So to the existing ramp-up in foreclosures due to subprime resets (and also well-employed homeowners walking away from upside-down mortgages), we now have the middle and upper-middle class losing their jobs. So we’ll finally see the previously strong upper-middle class real estate areas (Ex.: Carmel Valley) now lose significant value, but that could take twelve to eighteen months.

This analysis ignores the likely intervention of our government in writing down mortgages, as our government is now the major residential mortgage holder.

[stockstradr]

I think it easy to predict what happens next for San Diego.

Unemployment rates climb ABOVE 10% during the next 12-18 months of recession.

So to the existing ramp-up in foreclosures due to subprime resets (and also well-employed homeowners walking away from upside-down mortgages), we now have the middle and upper-middle class losing their jobs. So we’ll finally see the previously strong upper-middle class real estate areas (Ex.: Carmel Valley) now lose significant value, but that could take twelve to eighteen months.

This analysis ignores the likely intervention of our government in writing down mortgages, as our government is now the major residential mortgage holder.

[stockstradr]

I think it easy to predict what happens next for San Diego.

Unemployment rates climb ABOVE 10% during the next 12-18 months of recession.

So to the existing ramp-up in foreclosures due to subprime resets (and also well-employed homeowners walking away from upside-down mortgages), we now have the middle and upper-middle class losing their jobs. So we’ll finally see the previously strong upper-middle class real estate areas (Ex.: Carmel Valley) now lose significant value, but that could take twelve to eighteen months.

This analysis ignores the likely intervention of our government in writing down mortgages, as our government is now the major residential mortgage holder.

[stockstradr]

I think it easy to predict what happens next for San Diego.

Unemployment rates climb ABOVE 10% during the next 12-18 months of recession.

So to the existing ramp-up in foreclosures due to subprime resets (and also well-employed homeowners walking away from upside-down mortgages), we now have the middle and upper-middle class losing their jobs. So we’ll finally see the previously strong upper-middle class real estate areas (Ex.: Carmel Valley) now lose significant value, but that could take twelve to eighteen months.

This analysis ignores the likely intervention of our government in writing down mortgages, as our government is now the major residential mortgage holder.

[Author]

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