Are you looking to get in on the ground floor? Think again.

[patientlywaiting]

sdrealtor, sorry if I misunderstood you.

I listen to what the average person says. I talk to people whenever I can.

Piggs are ahead of the curve by at least 2 years.

There’s still a lot of optimism out there about a housing rebound and you see that in the prices people are listing their houses at.

By all accounts we are already in a recession. And even if we can pull of out of one, 1% to 2% growth rate feels like a recession.

Joe and Jane Homeowners are now exhausting their savings holding onto their houses. There will be a time when they say, “f— it. no house is worth the stress.” When that happens, the housing crash will occur in earnest.

The average person still thinks that we are in period of “adjustment” and the prices will move up again. When that doesn’t happen, the resistance will dissolve in chaos.

Everyone knows that “financing is the gasoline that fuels the market.” Financing is harder to come by, down payments are now required, and there’s no appreciation to be had. The new entrants are not coming in to support prices.

In my mind, new entrants are the foundation that supports the housing market. And the new entrants are all gone.

[Bugs]

The attribute about the Piggs that should stand out is not their predominant bearishness at this point, but their willingness to look forward. To analyze with our heads rather than our hearts.

We were able to predict what would eventually happen because we were willing to project the then-current trends to their logical conclusions. That trait shouldn’t end just because that end of the economic cycle ended.

I’m now hoping that when the reasonable opportunities finally do present themselves that those Piggs who are so inclined will be fully prepared to commit. Mentally as well as financially. I don’t think the time to start preparing for those opportunities is when the market bottoms out – I think you guys want to start getting your stuff together now, well in advance.

Another thing I’m trying to point out is that, just as sdr has been saying all along, most of the deals that come up between now and the midpoint of the next upcycle will be not be the properties that qualify as your dream house. The people who hold the truly great properties will tend to be those who are best prepared to hold them; they mostly won’t be the most marginal sellers who are forced to sell.

In order to recognize the opportunities that will come up you’ll want to orient your expectations as to what those opportunities will really look like. If you’re trying to get into the primo properties at the best discount I think you’re going to have to work your ass off and have a little luck on your side. I think you’ll have a lot of really savvy competition for those properties when they finally do come up, and you’ll have to be prepared to both commit to and execute those purchase decisions. That won’t happen if you’re at all uncertain about what you’re doing.

There’s no question that because of what some of you are looking for you’re going to have to wait until the bitter end before your target market gets to that inflection point. I think your window of opportunity will be briefest of all. However, for every legitimate $800k buyer, there are a dozen $400k buyers, and I think those folks will have a lot more choices in general so long as they keep an open mind.

I’m no realty agent and selling isn’t my thing, so I think it’s okay for me to say (without getting blasted) that being a bear is appropriate when there’s a lot of risk involved. It’s not so smart when the risks drop to bearable levels. Pun intended.

BTW, I was way too early on the timing of the bust, so I freely admit that the same possibility exists for my timing on this, too. Everyone needs to make their own decisions on this based on their own process.

[Bugs]

The attribute about the Piggs that should stand out is not their predominant bearishness at this point, but their willingness to look forward. To analyze with our heads rather than our hearts.

We were able to predict what would eventually happen because we were willing to project the then-current trends to their logical conclusions. That trait shouldn’t end just because that end of the economic cycle ended.

I’m now hoping that when the reasonable opportunities finally do present themselves that those Piggs who are so inclined will be fully prepared to commit. Mentally as well as financially. I don’t think the time to start preparing for those opportunities is when the market bottoms out – I think you guys want to start getting your stuff together now, well in advance.

Another thing I’m trying to point out is that, just as sdr has been saying all along, most of the deals that come up between now and the midpoint of the next upcycle will be not be the properties that qualify as your dream house. The people who hold the truly great properties will tend to be those who are best prepared to hold them; they mostly won’t be the most marginal sellers who are forced to sell.

In order to recognize the opportunities that will come up you’ll want to orient your expectations as to what those opportunities will really look like. If you’re trying to get into the primo properties at the best discount I think you’re going to have to work your ass off and have a little luck on your side. I think you’ll have a lot of really savvy competition for those properties when they finally do come up, and you’ll have to be prepared to both commit to and execute those purchase decisions. That won’t happen if you’re at all uncertain about what you’re doing.

There’s no question that because of what some of you are looking for you’re going to have to wait until the bitter end before your target market gets to that inflection point. I think your window of opportunity will be briefest of all. However, for every legitimate $800k buyer, there are a dozen $400k buyers, and I think those folks will have a lot more choices in general so long as they keep an open mind.

I’m no realty agent and selling isn’t my thing, so I think it’s okay for me to say (without getting blasted) that being a bear is appropriate when there’s a lot of risk involved. It’s not so smart when the risks drop to bearable levels. Pun intended.

BTW, I was way too early on the timing of the bust, so I freely admit that the same possibility exists for my timing on this, too. Everyone needs to make their own decisions on this based on their own process.

[Bugs]

The attribute about the Piggs that should stand out is not their predominant bearishness at this point, but their willingness to look forward. To analyze with our heads rather than our hearts.

We were able to predict what would eventually happen because we were willing to project the then-current trends to their logical conclusions. That trait shouldn’t end just because that end of the economic cycle ended.

I’m now hoping that when the reasonable opportunities finally do present themselves that those Piggs who are so inclined will be fully prepared to commit. Mentally as well as financially. I don’t think the time to start preparing for those opportunities is when the market bottoms out – I think you guys want to start getting your stuff together now, well in advance.

Another thing I’m trying to point out is that, just as sdr has been saying all along, most of the deals that come up between now and the midpoint of the next upcycle will be not be the properties that qualify as your dream house. The people who hold the truly great properties will tend to be those who are best prepared to hold them; they mostly won’t be the most marginal sellers who are forced to sell.

In order to recognize the opportunities that will come up you’ll want to orient your expectations as to what those opportunities will really look like. If you’re trying to get into the primo properties at the best discount I think you’re going to have to work your ass off and have a little luck on your side. I think you’ll have a lot of really savvy competition for those properties when they finally do come up, and you’ll have to be prepared to both commit to and execute those purchase decisions. That won’t happen if you’re at all uncertain about what you’re doing.

There’s no question that because of what some of you are looking for you’re going to have to wait until the bitter end before your target market gets to that inflection point. I think your window of opportunity will be briefest of all. However, for every legitimate $800k buyer, there are a dozen $400k buyers, and I think those folks will have a lot more choices in general so long as they keep an open mind.

I’m no realty agent and selling isn’t my thing, so I think it’s okay for me to say (without getting blasted) that being a bear is appropriate when there’s a lot of risk involved. It’s not so smart when the risks drop to bearable levels. Pun intended.

BTW, I was way too early on the timing of the bust, so I freely admit that the same possibility exists for my timing on this, too. Everyone needs to make their own decisions on this based on their own process.

[Bugs]

The attribute about the Piggs that should stand out is not their predominant bearishness at this point, but their willingness to look forward. To analyze with our heads rather than our hearts.

We were able to predict what would eventually happen because we were willing to project the then-current trends to their logical conclusions. That trait shouldn’t end just because that end of the economic cycle ended.

I’m now hoping that when the reasonable opportunities finally do present themselves that those Piggs who are so inclined will be fully prepared to commit. Mentally as well as financially. I don’t think the time to start preparing for those opportunities is when the market bottoms out – I think you guys want to start getting your stuff together now, well in advance.

Another thing I’m trying to point out is that, just as sdr has been saying all along, most of the deals that come up between now and the midpoint of the next upcycle will be not be the properties that qualify as your dream house. The people who hold the truly great properties will tend to be those who are best prepared to hold them; they mostly won’t be the most marginal sellers who are forced to sell.

In order to recognize the opportunities that will come up you’ll want to orient your expectations as to what those opportunities will really look like. If you’re trying to get into the primo properties at the best discount I think you’re going to have to work your ass off and have a little luck on your side. I think you’ll have a lot of really savvy competition for those properties when they finally do come up, and you’ll have to be prepared to both commit to and execute those purchase decisions. That won’t happen if you’re at all uncertain about what you’re doing.

There’s no question that because of what some of you are looking for you’re going to have to wait until the bitter end before your target market gets to that inflection point. I think your window of opportunity will be briefest of all. However, for every legitimate $800k buyer, there are a dozen $400k buyers, and I think those folks will have a lot more choices in general so long as they keep an open mind.

I’m no realty agent and selling isn’t my thing, so I think it’s okay for me to say (without getting blasted) that being a bear is appropriate when there’s a lot of risk involved. It’s not so smart when the risks drop to bearable levels. Pun intended.

BTW, I was way too early on the timing of the bust, so I freely admit that the same possibility exists for my timing on this, too. Everyone needs to make their own decisions on this based on their own process.

[Bugs]

The attribute about the Piggs that should stand out is not their predominant bearishness at this point, but their willingness to look forward. To analyze with our heads rather than our hearts.

We were able to predict what would eventually happen because we were willing to project the then-current trends to their logical conclusions. That trait shouldn’t end just because that end of the economic cycle ended.

I’m now hoping that when the reasonable opportunities finally do present themselves that those Piggs who are so inclined will be fully prepared to commit. Mentally as well as financially. I don’t think the time to start preparing for those opportunities is when the market bottoms out – I think you guys want to start getting your stuff together now, well in advance.

Another thing I’m trying to point out is that, just as sdr has been saying all along, most of the deals that come up between now and the midpoint of the next upcycle will be not be the properties that qualify as your dream house. The people who hold the truly great properties will tend to be those who are best prepared to hold them; they mostly won’t be the most marginal sellers who are forced to sell.

In order to recognize the opportunities that will come up you’ll want to orient your expectations as to what those opportunities will really look like. If you’re trying to get into the primo properties at the best discount I think you’re going to have to work your ass off and have a little luck on your side. I think you’ll have a lot of really savvy competition for those properties when they finally do come up, and you’ll have to be prepared to both commit to and execute those purchase decisions. That won’t happen if you’re at all uncertain about what you’re doing.

There’s no question that because of what some of you are looking for you’re going to have to wait until the bitter end before your target market gets to that inflection point. I think your window of opportunity will be briefest of all. However, for every legitimate $800k buyer, there are a dozen $400k buyers, and I think those folks will have a lot more choices in general so long as they keep an open mind.

I’m no realty agent and selling isn’t my thing, so I think it’s okay for me to say (without getting blasted) that being a bear is appropriate when there’s a lot of risk involved. It’s not so smart when the risks drop to bearable levels. Pun intended.

BTW, I was way too early on the timing of the bust, so I freely admit that the same possibility exists for my timing on this, too. Everyone needs to make their own decisions on this based on their own process.

[patientlywaiting]

I think we need to define what a primo property is.

Sorry to say but a tract house that sells for $800k to $1.2 million is not primo. There are several thousand of those upscale suburban houses. When the market bottoms there’s be plenty of selection.

If you want to talk about really primo properties, my recollection is that in 1996 those went begging. Owners had staying power so they did not necessary put them on the market but you could rent a Del Mar oceanfront condo for $2500. Some sold. During racing season people from all over the world would come and rent. When appreciation took off, thanks to swelling stock portfolios they bought.

I don’t believe that most piggs are looking for truly unique properties.

If you’re looking at tract development such as Santa Luz, 4S, Derby Hill, Torrey Hills, San Elijo, La Costa Greens/Valley or whatever you have plenty of time and choices. I believe that prices will revert back to 2002 prices. We shall see.

[patientlywaiting]

I think we need to define what a primo property is.

Sorry to say but a tract house that sells for $800k to $1.2 million is not primo. There are several thousand of those upscale suburban houses. When the market bottoms there’s be plenty of selection.

If you want to talk about really primo properties, my recollection is that in 1996 those went begging. Owners had staying power so they did not necessary put them on the market but you could rent a Del Mar oceanfront condo for $2500. Some sold. During racing season people from all over the world would come and rent. When appreciation took off, thanks to swelling stock portfolios they bought.

I don’t believe that most piggs are looking for truly unique properties.

If you’re looking at tract development such as Santa Luz, 4S, Derby Hill, Torrey Hills, San Elijo, La Costa Greens/Valley or whatever you have plenty of time and choices. I believe that prices will revert back to 2002 prices. We shall see.

[patientlywaiting]

I think we need to define what a primo property is.

Sorry to say but a tract house that sells for $800k to $1.2 million is not primo. There are several thousand of those upscale suburban houses. When the market bottoms there’s be plenty of selection.

If you want to talk about really primo properties, my recollection is that in 1996 those went begging. Owners had staying power so they did not necessary put them on the market but you could rent a Del Mar oceanfront condo for $2500. Some sold. During racing season people from all over the world would come and rent. When appreciation took off, thanks to swelling stock portfolios they bought.

I don’t believe that most piggs are looking for truly unique properties.

If you’re looking at tract development such as Santa Luz, 4S, Derby Hill, Torrey Hills, San Elijo, La Costa Greens/Valley or whatever you have plenty of time and choices. I believe that prices will revert back to 2002 prices. We shall see.

[patientlywaiting]

I think we need to define what a primo property is.

Sorry to say but a tract house that sells for $800k to $1.2 million is not primo. There are several thousand of those upscale suburban houses. When the market bottoms there’s be plenty of selection.

If you want to talk about really primo properties, my recollection is that in 1996 those went begging. Owners had staying power so they did not necessary put them on the market but you could rent a Del Mar oceanfront condo for $2500. Some sold. During racing season people from all over the world would come and rent. When appreciation took off, thanks to swelling stock portfolios they bought.

I don’t believe that most piggs are looking for truly unique properties.

If you’re looking at tract development such as Santa Luz, 4S, Derby Hill, Torrey Hills, San Elijo, La Costa Greens/Valley or whatever you have plenty of time and choices. I believe that prices will revert back to 2002 prices. We shall see.

[patientlywaiting]

I think we need to define what a primo property is.

Sorry to say but a tract house that sells for $800k to $1.2 million is not primo. There are several thousand of those upscale suburban houses. When the market bottoms there’s be plenty of selection.

If you want to talk about really primo properties, my recollection is that in 1996 those went begging. Owners had staying power so they did not necessary put them on the market but you could rent a Del Mar oceanfront condo for $2500. Some sold. During racing season people from all over the world would come and rent. When appreciation took off, thanks to swelling stock portfolios they bought.

I don’t believe that most piggs are looking for truly unique properties.

If you’re looking at tract development such as Santa Luz, 4S, Derby Hill, Torrey Hills, San Elijo, La Costa Greens/Valley or whatever you have plenty of time and choices. I believe that prices will revert back to 2002 prices. We shall see.

[an]

To me, I think every area will have “primo” property. It might not be “primo” in comparison to other better areas, but it’s “primo” in their price range and area. For me, those “primo” houses are the one with large lot and a view.

[an]

To me, I think every area will have “primo” property. It might not be “primo” in comparison to other better areas, but it’s “primo” in their price range and area. For me, those “primo” houses are the one with large lot and a view.

[an]

To me, I think every area will have “primo” property. It might not be “primo” in comparison to other better areas, but it’s “primo” in their price range and area. For me, those “primo” houses are the one with large lot and a view.

[an]

To me, I think every area will have “primo” property. It might not be “primo” in comparison to other better areas, but it’s “primo” in their price range and area. For me, those “primo” houses are the one with large lot and a view.

[Author]

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