Are you looking to get in on the ground floor? Think again.

[Bugs]

Okay, I’ve noticed a certain little “Spring is in the air” sort of optimism around here lately, which is cool. A couple people are starting to notice that the thaw is starting to set in.

Since we like to look forward on this site, I don’t think now is too early to start opening a discussion about what kinds of expectations people should be having for when the market bottoms out.

A number of people on this board have commented – and I agree with them – that if one is buying a primary residence to live in they don’t have to time the market that closely in order to get a deal that works for them. I mean, the investors will want to stay out until they see a relatively short holding period with a good upside, but for the typical Joe Homeowner getting in while the market still has 10% more excess to bleed off isn’t such a bad scenario if they can otherwise get their satisfaction out of it.

If it wasn’t for the extended length of time the ARMs are resetting, I’d almost think that we could bottom out and possibly start the next cycle by late 2009. But the pricing can’t truly settle until the excess inventory is gone and it’s apparent that we’re just going to keep adding to it through 2011.

I think it’s possible that the current free-fall that we’re in right now could extend in many of the low-priced segments for the remainder of the year; and in so doing, could wind up settling at yr2001 pricing. It won’t represent the bottom of the market, but there won’t be all that much gas left to burn off, either.

For context, let’s look at one of these low-priced market segments. In El Cajon the median pricing for 2bd condos in early 2001 was ~$140,000 for the first quarter. That market segment peaked in mid 2006 (03-09) at $314,000. From 01/2008 to present it is now at ~$215,000, although that’s a really small sample.

My point here is that it’s possible this market segment may eventually retreat all the way back to the 1998 average of $96,000, but with rents for 2bd apartments in that area averaging around $1,000/month, I very much doubt it. I think that at about $120,000 or so, there will be some investors who will start to have some serious interest, so I’m GUESSING it probably won’t retreat much below that. About the only thing I can think of that would make it retreat much below that point would be if interest rates start to jack up, and it would probably only decrease to that extent and by that amount.

For the sake of argument, let’s suppose we expect the rents for this market segment to remain at about $1,000/month, and the pricing will eventually stabilize at $120k. At a 6.5% interest rate (100% financing), the PITI + HOA dues is equal to the market rent for that unit. Any renters who can do so would probably come out ahead by the time you include the tax writeoff.

With these assumptions, you could argue that a Joe Renter could decide to get in at $140,000 or so and not get horribly burned no matter what happens after that. Depending on what you think mortgage interest rates will do by the time the market really does settle, it’s possible that a $140k purchase at 6.5% interest rate will look a lot like a $120k purchase at 8.0%.

So in summary, if the current trend holds for the remainder of 2008 and this market did settle at $140,000 (which is another $70k off the current median), then it might make some sense for those who are willing to live in such a unit to pull the trigger.

In doing so, this buyer may be leaving $20k on the table, and they may be sitting in that unit for several years before they break even again, but at least they’re in and stable. It might save a marriage or two.

Obviously, this particular scenario won’t appeal to 95% of our regulars, but it will work for some people, like my kids.

With that said, I can envision a scenario where some of the bottom end drops to this 90% correction point by the end of 2008 and the remaining 10% bleeds off over 3 or 4 years before settling at rock bottom. Other market segments will move at different paces and settle at different times.

I don’t think the detached home markets in the most desireable areas will stabilize first this time around. For those who want to get in early, I think your best shot is the bottom end of the market.

Just my opinion. What’s yours?

[gdcox]

Quality thinking material there and hard to argue with your logic as someone not intimate with the area. A further 30 % is not assumed in Wall St by the way!!. Though the apartment sector there or in all of SD does not represent the whole country, it may represent the mortgage sectors whose negative dynamic is causing all the damage.

Bugs, would appreciate knowing where El Cajon sits in terms of the quality of typical mortgagees. Is it sub-prime boom walkers or Alt A long term sitters who don’t want to mess with their credit rating or……….?
Thanks
Graham

[gdcox]

Quality thinking material there and hard to argue with your logic as someone not intimate with the area. A further 30 % is not assumed in Wall St by the way!!. Though the apartment sector there or in all of SD does not represent the whole country, it may represent the mortgage sectors whose negative dynamic is causing all the damage.

Bugs, would appreciate knowing where El Cajon sits in terms of the quality of typical mortgagees. Is it sub-prime boom walkers or Alt A long term sitters who don’t want to mess with their credit rating or……….?
Thanks
Graham

[gdcox]

Quality thinking material there and hard to argue with your logic as someone not intimate with the area. A further 30 % is not assumed in Wall St by the way!!. Though the apartment sector there or in all of SD does not represent the whole country, it may represent the mortgage sectors whose negative dynamic is causing all the damage.

Bugs, would appreciate knowing where El Cajon sits in terms of the quality of typical mortgagees. Is it sub-prime boom walkers or Alt A long term sitters who don’t want to mess with their credit rating or……….?
Thanks
Graham

[gdcox]

Quality thinking material there and hard to argue with your logic as someone not intimate with the area. A further 30 % is not assumed in Wall St by the way!!. Though the apartment sector there or in all of SD does not represent the whole country, it may represent the mortgage sectors whose negative dynamic is causing all the damage.

Bugs, would appreciate knowing where El Cajon sits in terms of the quality of typical mortgagees. Is it sub-prime boom walkers or Alt A long term sitters who don’t want to mess with their credit rating or……….?
Thanks
Graham

[gdcox]

Quality thinking material there and hard to argue with your logic as someone not intimate with the area. A further 30 % is not assumed in Wall St by the way!!. Though the apartment sector there or in all of SD does not represent the whole country, it may represent the mortgage sectors whose negative dynamic is causing all the damage.

Bugs, would appreciate knowing where El Cajon sits in terms of the quality of typical mortgagees. Is it sub-prime boom walkers or Alt A long term sitters who don’t want to mess with their credit rating or……….?
Thanks
Graham

[cashflow]

Another good take on the market Bugs. I think your right on as I’ve been comparing where I’d like to buy (RB, Poway, Penasquitos), to less desirable areas (Vista, San Marcos, Escondido). The less desirable areas have recently been really moving downward, while the desirable is still resisting much downward momentum. If this trend stays the same then I do believe the less desirable will start to bottom out much earlier. Just makes logical sense as you compare neighboring communities if one is significantly less, or you can get so much more for your money, where are the few buyers that are out there going to put their money. By less desirable, it usually is one major factor, the school system isn’t ranked on top, but still the schools are good. Believe me this thought has crossed my mind, just send the kids to private school if I don’t like the schools….so we’ll see how it plays out. We are of the mindset that as soon as it makes sense for us, we are buying and will stop micro-watching the market as we’ll be in for the long haul.

I believe that by the end of this year-winter 08-09, there may be some homes that will be at a decent price point for some buyers. The unknown is how interest rates and the credit crunch will affect peoples ability to buy.

[cashflow]

Another good take on the market Bugs. I think your right on as I’ve been comparing where I’d like to buy (RB, Poway, Penasquitos), to less desirable areas (Vista, San Marcos, Escondido). The less desirable areas have recently been really moving downward, while the desirable is still resisting much downward momentum. If this trend stays the same then I do believe the less desirable will start to bottom out much earlier. Just makes logical sense as you compare neighboring communities if one is significantly less, or you can get so much more for your money, where are the few buyers that are out there going to put their money. By less desirable, it usually is one major factor, the school system isn’t ranked on top, but still the schools are good. Believe me this thought has crossed my mind, just send the kids to private school if I don’t like the schools….so we’ll see how it plays out. We are of the mindset that as soon as it makes sense for us, we are buying and will stop micro-watching the market as we’ll be in for the long haul.

I believe that by the end of this year-winter 08-09, there may be some homes that will be at a decent price point for some buyers. The unknown is how interest rates and the credit crunch will affect peoples ability to buy.

[cashflow]

Another good take on the market Bugs. I think your right on as I’ve been comparing where I’d like to buy (RB, Poway, Penasquitos), to less desirable areas (Vista, San Marcos, Escondido). The less desirable areas have recently been really moving downward, while the desirable is still resisting much downward momentum. If this trend stays the same then I do believe the less desirable will start to bottom out much earlier. Just makes logical sense as you compare neighboring communities if one is significantly less, or you can get so much more for your money, where are the few buyers that are out there going to put their money. By less desirable, it usually is one major factor, the school system isn’t ranked on top, but still the schools are good. Believe me this thought has crossed my mind, just send the kids to private school if I don’t like the schools….so we’ll see how it plays out. We are of the mindset that as soon as it makes sense for us, we are buying and will stop micro-watching the market as we’ll be in for the long haul.

I believe that by the end of this year-winter 08-09, there may be some homes that will be at a decent price point for some buyers. The unknown is how interest rates and the credit crunch will affect peoples ability to buy.

[cashflow]

Another good take on the market Bugs. I think your right on as I’ve been comparing where I’d like to buy (RB, Poway, Penasquitos), to less desirable areas (Vista, San Marcos, Escondido). The less desirable areas have recently been really moving downward, while the desirable is still resisting much downward momentum. If this trend stays the same then I do believe the less desirable will start to bottom out much earlier. Just makes logical sense as you compare neighboring communities if one is significantly less, or you can get so much more for your money, where are the few buyers that are out there going to put their money. By less desirable, it usually is one major factor, the school system isn’t ranked on top, but still the schools are good. Believe me this thought has crossed my mind, just send the kids to private school if I don’t like the schools….so we’ll see how it plays out. We are of the mindset that as soon as it makes sense for us, we are buying and will stop micro-watching the market as we’ll be in for the long haul.

I believe that by the end of this year-winter 08-09, there may be some homes that will be at a decent price point for some buyers. The unknown is how interest rates and the credit crunch will affect peoples ability to buy.

[cashflow]

Another good take on the market Bugs. I think your right on as I’ve been comparing where I’d like to buy (RB, Poway, Penasquitos), to less desirable areas (Vista, San Marcos, Escondido). The less desirable areas have recently been really moving downward, while the desirable is still resisting much downward momentum. If this trend stays the same then I do believe the less desirable will start to bottom out much earlier. Just makes logical sense as you compare neighboring communities if one is significantly less, or you can get so much more for your money, where are the few buyers that are out there going to put their money. By less desirable, it usually is one major factor, the school system isn’t ranked on top, but still the schools are good. Believe me this thought has crossed my mind, just send the kids to private school if I don’t like the schools….so we’ll see how it plays out. We are of the mindset that as soon as it makes sense for us, we are buying and will stop micro-watching the market as we’ll be in for the long haul.

I believe that by the end of this year-winter 08-09, there may be some homes that will be at a decent price point for some buyers. The unknown is how interest rates and the credit crunch will affect peoples ability to buy.

[nostradamus]

I’ve been wanting to get out of my condo and buy a house for some time now, and am financially prepared but know that now is not even close to being the time to do it. Sellers are still out of touch with the market but are starting to catch on. Some companies are shutting down and laying off. Stocks are doing the dead cat bounce. The dollar is in free-fall. Inflation is up. We are bombarded daily with deceptive, placating news trying to candy-coat what’s happening to our economy. Ya, for me this is a no-brainer: it’s not the time to buy. I can’t say that things won’t get better but I can say that the future is a big, black hole. Even for me, Nostradamus. Buying a house now is like playing roulette. I won’t play roulette with $5, definitely not with half a million or more.

Thus, I’m hunkering down and looking to hire some desperate-for-work contractors to remodel parts of my condo to make it even nicer since I’ll probably be here for another two years minimum. During this time I am able to save up money for the house, so hopefully what the interest rates are doing at the time I buy will not affect me much.

I’ve asked before but didn’t get any response: does anyone know of a good contractor to do bathroom remodels and such?

[jpinpb]

nostradamus –
Try calling Arthur-Bradley. 619-640-1410

Their website is not the best, but they are good. Hear they have ads on the radio (don’t listen to that particular station) and highly recommended by the people they work with.
I know Brad and he’s a nice young man, honest. I think he does the bathroom remodels. Tell him hi for me.

my nickname – jellybean

[SD Realtor]

Bugs I agree with your post. Based on my own thoughts, I am really leaning towards the back end of the depreciate cycle for substantial drops towards more desireable homes in more desireable areas. Of course a desireable home is in the eyes of the beholder.

The more I look at this cycle, the more I think it will indeed differ from the previous depreciation cycle. I see a much more wider variation in the timing of the bottom for various regions. Indeed I can envision the lower end areas dropping more… perhaps to the levels you mentioned and then they will stay flat or perhaps even move up while the higher end areas may indeed still be falling.

I also think there very well could be an underestimation about the stubborness of sellers with heavy equity stakes of yielding to price pressures and simply deciding to ride it out.

Of course we need to see what happens with employment and the 10 year.

SD Realtor

[pemeliza]

Great posts.

For me and DW it was easier just to come up with a price point for what we want and be ready for it if it comes.

As we see it there are only 3 possibly outcomes:

1.) The price point will arrive we will buy and just happen to have timed the bottom (extremely unlikley)
2.) The price point will arrive we will buy and the prices will continue to decrease or stay flat.
3.) Our price point will never arrive.

Our criteria are:

1.) Great Schools
2.) 2500+ ft single level 3000+ ft if double level
3.) price : 600-650k
4.) 4+ BR
5.) Good lot (decent size, quiet, no power lines)

After that we have a whole list of “like to haves”.

Rather than trying to predict the market, we based these
criteria on what it would take for us to move away from our current situation and be happy about it. We will be paying cash so are immune to financing issues.

Some areas we are looking at are probably 20% apart from us in price …

Frankly timing the bottom (or top) just isn’t something we are very good at.

[pemeliza]

Great posts.

For me and DW it was easier just to come up with a price point for what we want and be ready for it if it comes.

As we see it there are only 3 possibly outcomes:

1.) The price point will arrive we will buy and just happen to have timed the bottom (extremely unlikley)
2.) The price point will arrive we will buy and the prices will continue to decrease or stay flat.
3.) Our price point will never arrive.

Our criteria are:

1.) Great Schools
2.) 2500+ ft single level 3000+ ft if double level
3.) price : 600-650k
4.) 4+ BR
5.) Good lot (decent size, quiet, no power lines)

After that we have a whole list of “like to haves”.

Rather than trying to predict the market, we based these
criteria on what it would take for us to move away from our current situation and be happy about it. We will be paying cash so are immune to financing issues.

Some areas we are looking at are probably 20% apart from us in price …

Frankly timing the bottom (or top) just isn’t something we are very good at.

[pemeliza]

Great posts.

For me and DW it was easier just to come up with a price point for what we want and be ready for it if it comes.

As we see it there are only 3 possibly outcomes:

1.) The price point will arrive we will buy and just happen to have timed the bottom (extremely unlikley)
2.) The price point will arrive we will buy and the prices will continue to decrease or stay flat.
3.) Our price point will never arrive.

Our criteria are:

1.) Great Schools
2.) 2500+ ft single level 3000+ ft if double level
3.) price : 600-650k
4.) 4+ BR
5.) Good lot (decent size, quiet, no power lines)

After that we have a whole list of “like to haves”.

Rather than trying to predict the market, we based these
criteria on what it would take for us to move away from our current situation and be happy about it. We will be paying cash so are immune to financing issues.

Some areas we are looking at are probably 20% apart from us in price …

Frankly timing the bottom (or top) just isn’t something we are very good at.

[pemeliza]

Great posts.

For me and DW it was easier just to come up with a price point for what we want and be ready for it if it comes.

As we see it there are only 3 possibly outcomes:

1.) The price point will arrive we will buy and just happen to have timed the bottom (extremely unlikley)
2.) The price point will arrive we will buy and the prices will continue to decrease or stay flat.
3.) Our price point will never arrive.

Our criteria are:

1.) Great Schools
2.) 2500+ ft single level 3000+ ft if double level
3.) price : 600-650k
4.) 4+ BR
5.) Good lot (decent size, quiet, no power lines)

After that we have a whole list of “like to haves”.

Rather than trying to predict the market, we based these
criteria on what it would take for us to move away from our current situation and be happy about it. We will be paying cash so are immune to financing issues.

Some areas we are looking at are probably 20% apart from us in price …

Frankly timing the bottom (or top) just isn’t something we are very good at.

[pemeliza]

Great posts.

For me and DW it was easier just to come up with a price point for what we want and be ready for it if it comes.

As we see it there are only 3 possibly outcomes:

1.) The price point will arrive we will buy and just happen to have timed the bottom (extremely unlikley)
2.) The price point will arrive we will buy and the prices will continue to decrease or stay flat.
3.) Our price point will never arrive.

Our criteria are:

1.) Great Schools
2.) 2500+ ft single level 3000+ ft if double level
3.) price : 600-650k
4.) 4+ BR
5.) Good lot (decent size, quiet, no power lines)

After that we have a whole list of “like to haves”.

Rather than trying to predict the market, we based these
criteria on what it would take for us to move away from our current situation and be happy about it. We will be paying cash so are immune to financing issues.

Some areas we are looking at are probably 20% apart from us in price …

Frankly timing the bottom (or top) just isn’t something we are very good at.

[SD Realtor]

Bugs I agree with your post. Based on my own thoughts, I am really leaning towards the back end of the depreciate cycle for substantial drops towards more desireable homes in more desireable areas. Of course a desireable home is in the eyes of the beholder.

The more I look at this cycle, the more I think it will indeed differ from the previous depreciation cycle. I see a much more wider variation in the timing of the bottom for various regions. Indeed I can envision the lower end areas dropping more… perhaps to the levels you mentioned and then they will stay flat or perhaps even move up while the higher end areas may indeed still be falling.

I also think there very well could be an underestimation about the stubborness of sellers with heavy equity stakes of yielding to price pressures and simply deciding to ride it out.

Of course we need to see what happens with employment and the 10 year.

SD Realtor

[SD Realtor]

Bugs I agree with your post. Based on my own thoughts, I am really leaning towards the back end of the depreciate cycle for substantial drops towards more desireable homes in more desireable areas. Of course a desireable home is in the eyes of the beholder.

The more I look at this cycle, the more I think it will indeed differ from the previous depreciation cycle. I see a much more wider variation in the timing of the bottom for various regions. Indeed I can envision the lower end areas dropping more… perhaps to the levels you mentioned and then they will stay flat or perhaps even move up while the higher end areas may indeed still be falling.

I also think there very well could be an underestimation about the stubborness of sellers with heavy equity stakes of yielding to price pressures and simply deciding to ride it out.

Of course we need to see what happens with employment and the 10 year.

SD Realtor

[SD Realtor]

Bugs I agree with your post. Based on my own thoughts, I am really leaning towards the back end of the depreciate cycle for substantial drops towards more desireable homes in more desireable areas. Of course a desireable home is in the eyes of the beholder.

The more I look at this cycle, the more I think it will indeed differ from the previous depreciation cycle. I see a much more wider variation in the timing of the bottom for various regions. Indeed I can envision the lower end areas dropping more… perhaps to the levels you mentioned and then they will stay flat or perhaps even move up while the higher end areas may indeed still be falling.

I also think there very well could be an underestimation about the stubborness of sellers with heavy equity stakes of yielding to price pressures and simply deciding to ride it out.

Of course we need to see what happens with employment and the 10 year.

SD Realtor

[SD Realtor]

Bugs I agree with your post. Based on my own thoughts, I am really leaning towards the back end of the depreciate cycle for substantial drops towards more desireable homes in more desireable areas. Of course a desireable home is in the eyes of the beholder.

The more I look at this cycle, the more I think it will indeed differ from the previous depreciation cycle. I see a much more wider variation in the timing of the bottom for various regions. Indeed I can envision the lower end areas dropping more… perhaps to the levels you mentioned and then they will stay flat or perhaps even move up while the higher end areas may indeed still be falling.

I also think there very well could be an underestimation about the stubborness of sellers with heavy equity stakes of yielding to price pressures and simply deciding to ride it out.

Of course we need to see what happens with employment and the 10 year.

SD Realtor

[jpinpb]

nostradamus –
Try calling Arthur-Bradley. 619-640-1410

Their website is not the best, but they are good. Hear they have ads on the radio (don’t listen to that particular station) and highly recommended by the people they work with.
I know Brad and he’s a nice young man, honest. I think he does the bathroom remodels. Tell him hi for me.

my nickname – jellybean

[jpinpb]

nostradamus –
Try calling Arthur-Bradley. 619-640-1410

Their website is not the best, but they are good. Hear they have ads on the radio (don’t listen to that particular station) and highly recommended by the people they work with.
I know Brad and he’s a nice young man, honest. I think he does the bathroom remodels. Tell him hi for me.

my nickname – jellybean

[jpinpb]

nostradamus –
Try calling Arthur-Bradley. 619-640-1410

Their website is not the best, but they are good. Hear they have ads on the radio (don’t listen to that particular station) and highly recommended by the people they work with.
I know Brad and he’s a nice young man, honest. I think he does the bathroom remodels. Tell him hi for me.

my nickname – jellybean

[jpinpb]

nostradamus –
Try calling Arthur-Bradley. 619-640-1410

Their website is not the best, but they are good. Hear they have ads on the radio (don’t listen to that particular station) and highly recommended by the people they work with.
I know Brad and he’s a nice young man, honest. I think he does the bathroom remodels. Tell him hi for me.

my nickname – jellybean

[nostradamus]

I’ve been wanting to get out of my condo and buy a house for some time now, and am financially prepared but know that now is not even close to being the time to do it. Sellers are still out of touch with the market but are starting to catch on. Some companies are shutting down and laying off. Stocks are doing the dead cat bounce. The dollar is in free-fall. Inflation is up. We are bombarded daily with deceptive, placating news trying to candy-coat what’s happening to our economy. Ya, for me this is a no-brainer: it’s not the time to buy. I can’t say that things won’t get better but I can say that the future is a big, black hole. Even for me, Nostradamus. Buying a house now is like playing roulette. I won’t play roulette with $5, definitely not with half a million or more.

Thus, I’m hunkering down and looking to hire some desperate-for-work contractors to remodel parts of my condo to make it even nicer since I’ll probably be here for another two years minimum. During this time I am able to save up money for the house, so hopefully what the interest rates are doing at the time I buy will not affect me much.

I’ve asked before but didn’t get any response: does anyone know of a good contractor to do bathroom remodels and such?

[nostradamus]

I’ve been wanting to get out of my condo and buy a house for some time now, and am financially prepared but know that now is not even close to being the time to do it. Sellers are still out of touch with the market but are starting to catch on. Some companies are shutting down and laying off. Stocks are doing the dead cat bounce. The dollar is in free-fall. Inflation is up. We are bombarded daily with deceptive, placating news trying to candy-coat what’s happening to our economy. Ya, for me this is a no-brainer: it’s not the time to buy. I can’t say that things won’t get better but I can say that the future is a big, black hole. Even for me, Nostradamus. Buying a house now is like playing roulette. I won’t play roulette with $5, definitely not with half a million or more.

Thus, I’m hunkering down and looking to hire some desperate-for-work contractors to remodel parts of my condo to make it even nicer since I’ll probably be here for another two years minimum. During this time I am able to save up money for the house, so hopefully what the interest rates are doing at the time I buy will not affect me much.

I’ve asked before but didn’t get any response: does anyone know of a good contractor to do bathroom remodels and such?

[nostradamus]

I’ve been wanting to get out of my condo and buy a house for some time now, and am financially prepared but know that now is not even close to being the time to do it. Sellers are still out of touch with the market but are starting to catch on. Some companies are shutting down and laying off. Stocks are doing the dead cat bounce. The dollar is in free-fall. Inflation is up. We are bombarded daily with deceptive, placating news trying to candy-coat what’s happening to our economy. Ya, for me this is a no-brainer: it’s not the time to buy. I can’t say that things won’t get better but I can say that the future is a big, black hole. Even for me, Nostradamus. Buying a house now is like playing roulette. I won’t play roulette with $5, definitely not with half a million or more.

Thus, I’m hunkering down and looking to hire some desperate-for-work contractors to remodel parts of my condo to make it even nicer since I’ll probably be here for another two years minimum. During this time I am able to save up money for the house, so hopefully what the interest rates are doing at the time I buy will not affect me much.

I’ve asked before but didn’t get any response: does anyone know of a good contractor to do bathroom remodels and such?

[nostradamus]

I’ve been wanting to get out of my condo and buy a house for some time now, and am financially prepared but know that now is not even close to being the time to do it. Sellers are still out of touch with the market but are starting to catch on. Some companies are shutting down and laying off. Stocks are doing the dead cat bounce. The dollar is in free-fall. Inflation is up. We are bombarded daily with deceptive, placating news trying to candy-coat what’s happening to our economy. Ya, for me this is a no-brainer: it’s not the time to buy. I can’t say that things won’t get better but I can say that the future is a big, black hole. Even for me, Nostradamus. Buying a house now is like playing roulette. I won’t play roulette with $5, definitely not with half a million or more.

Thus, I’m hunkering down and looking to hire some desperate-for-work contractors to remodel parts of my condo to make it even nicer since I’ll probably be here for another two years minimum. During this time I am able to save up money for the house, so hopefully what the interest rates are doing at the time I buy will not affect me much.

I’ve asked before but didn’t get any response: does anyone know of a good contractor to do bathroom remodels and such?

[kewp]

I think you are missing two (big) things.

One, the coming tidal wave of option-ARM resets in the prime segment, which reach out into the 2011 time frame.

Two, the degree to which the US and SoCal economy has been dependent on the housing bubble as the engine for economic growth. As the median house price falls, median income is gonna fall right along with it.

So, if the housing bust is a ball game, it sounds like you think we are about in 4th-5th inning. I think we are still in the first.

A ‘black swan’ event that might help SD is the creative destruction of excess inventory attracts some big companies to the area, particularly in the IE. I can easily imagine a company like Google buying up an office complex in Temecula and offering a free house to any engineer that relocates to there. Could be very attractive to Bay Area renters with families.

[temeculaguy]

kewp, please don’t post ideas like that, if anyone can find obscure postings on the internet it will be the folks at google. I welcome any group or type of people to my humble hamlet, minorities, religious cults, hurricane refugees, even the Taliban are welcome but I do not want anyone from the Bay Area to even know where on the map we are, let alone relocate here. I might be able to tolerate their political and social views for short periods of time but if I were to wander into my favorite watering hole and hear the chant “Niners, Niners,” I would have to move immediately. Thank you in advance for your cooperation.

[temeculaguy]

kewp, please don’t post ideas like that, if anyone can find obscure postings on the internet it will be the folks at google. I welcome any group or type of people to my humble hamlet, minorities, religious cults, hurricane refugees, even the Taliban are welcome but I do not want anyone from the Bay Area to even know where on the map we are, let alone relocate here. I might be able to tolerate their political and social views for short periods of time but if I were to wander into my favorite watering hole and hear the chant “Niners, Niners,” I would have to move immediately. Thank you in advance for your cooperation.

[temeculaguy]

kewp, please don’t post ideas like that, if anyone can find obscure postings on the internet it will be the folks at google. I welcome any group or type of people to my humble hamlet, minorities, religious cults, hurricane refugees, even the Taliban are welcome but I do not want anyone from the Bay Area to even know where on the map we are, let alone relocate here. I might be able to tolerate their political and social views for short periods of time but if I were to wander into my favorite watering hole and hear the chant “Niners, Niners,” I would have to move immediately. Thank you in advance for your cooperation.

[temeculaguy]

kewp, please don’t post ideas like that, if anyone can find obscure postings on the internet it will be the folks at google. I welcome any group or type of people to my humble hamlet, minorities, religious cults, hurricane refugees, even the Taliban are welcome but I do not want anyone from the Bay Area to even know where on the map we are, let alone relocate here. I might be able to tolerate their political and social views for short periods of time but if I were to wander into my favorite watering hole and hear the chant “Niners, Niners,” I would have to move immediately. Thank you in advance for your cooperation.

[temeculaguy]

kewp, please don’t post ideas like that, if anyone can find obscure postings on the internet it will be the folks at google. I welcome any group or type of people to my humble hamlet, minorities, religious cults, hurricane refugees, even the Taliban are welcome but I do not want anyone from the Bay Area to even know where on the map we are, let alone relocate here. I might be able to tolerate their political and social views for short periods of time but if I were to wander into my favorite watering hole and hear the chant “Niners, Niners,” I would have to move immediately. Thank you in advance for your cooperation.

[dontfollowtheherd]

kewp,

I think you’re right on as far as this going on for a while. It’s been running in cycles for 100 years or so – as long as the government started keeping records it’s been averaging nine year cycles. Supply and demand along with market psychology play a large part in it. Getting the financing won’t be that easy after the billions lost this time around. Anyone betting on a much shorter time line might want to invest in a pair of these Kevlar babies:

[img_assist|nid=6659|title=Knife Catchers|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=466|height=356]

dfth

[4plexowner]

dontfollowtheherd – do you recommend the ‘slap the knife blade between two palms’ technique or do you prefer the ‘stop the knife point with your palm and grab the blade with your free hand’ method?

[Nor-LA-SD-guy]

Well I think I heard Sam Zell is buying … Hotels though

[JWM in SD]

JWM in SD

“Paying over $200,000 in rent over the next 4 years and then hoping the market in 2012 would be at 2000 prices seems highly unlikely to me, and in 2012 I’ll be looking to downsize.”

Sorry Ozzie, but some of your numbers don’t make sense. I strongly suspect that your house is already under water only you don’t know it yet. Like sdr said, go research some more recent comps…oh yeah, and you’ll also be damn lucky if prices are only at 2000 levels in 2012.

[JWM in SD]

JWM in SD

“Paying over $200,000 in rent over the next 4 years and then hoping the market in 2012 would be at 2000 prices seems highly unlikely to me, and in 2012 I’ll be looking to downsize.”

Sorry Ozzie, but some of your numbers don’t make sense. I strongly suspect that your house is already under water only you don’t know it yet. Like sdr said, go research some more recent comps…oh yeah, and you’ll also be damn lucky if prices are only at 2000 levels in 2012.

[JWM in SD]

JWM in SD

“Paying over $200,000 in rent over the next 4 years and then hoping the market in 2012 would be at 2000 prices seems highly unlikely to me, and in 2012 I’ll be looking to downsize.”

Sorry Ozzie, but some of your numbers don’t make sense. I strongly suspect that your house is already under water only you don’t know it yet. Like sdr said, go research some more recent comps…oh yeah, and you’ll also be damn lucky if prices are only at 2000 levels in 2012.

[JWM in SD]

JWM in SD

“Paying over $200,000 in rent over the next 4 years and then hoping the market in 2012 would be at 2000 prices seems highly unlikely to me, and in 2012 I’ll be looking to downsize.”

Sorry Ozzie, but some of your numbers don’t make sense. I strongly suspect that your house is already under water only you don’t know it yet. Like sdr said, go research some more recent comps…oh yeah, and you’ll also be damn lucky if prices are only at 2000 levels in 2012.

[JWM in SD]

JWM in SD

“Paying over $200,000 in rent over the next 4 years and then hoping the market in 2012 would be at 2000 prices seems highly unlikely to me, and in 2012 I’ll be looking to downsize.”

Sorry Ozzie, but some of your numbers don’t make sense. I strongly suspect that your house is already under water only you don’t know it yet. Like sdr said, go research some more recent comps…oh yeah, and you’ll also be damn lucky if prices are only at 2000 levels in 2012.

[Nor-LA-SD-guy]

Well I think I heard Sam Zell is buying … Hotels though

[Nor-LA-SD-guy]

Well I think I heard Sam Zell is buying … Hotels though

[Nor-LA-SD-guy]

Well I think I heard Sam Zell is buying … Hotels though

[Nor-LA-SD-guy]

Well I think I heard Sam Zell is buying … Hotels though

[dontfollowtheherd]

4plex,

LOL!

After today’s wonderful news from the Case-Shiller index, oil prices, consumer sentiment etc. etc., I think some might be inclined to try the “swallow it like a sword” technique…

[dontfollowtheherd]

4plex,

LOL!

After today’s wonderful news from the Case-Shiller index, oil prices, consumer sentiment etc. etc., I think some might be inclined to try the “swallow it like a sword” technique…

[dontfollowtheherd]

4plex,

LOL!

After today’s wonderful news from the Case-Shiller index, oil prices, consumer sentiment etc. etc., I think some might be inclined to try the “swallow it like a sword” technique…

[dontfollowtheherd]

4plex,

LOL!

After today’s wonderful news from the Case-Shiller index, oil prices, consumer sentiment etc. etc., I think some might be inclined to try the “swallow it like a sword” technique…

[dontfollowtheherd]

4plex,

LOL!

After today’s wonderful news from the Case-Shiller index, oil prices, consumer sentiment etc. etc., I think some might be inclined to try the “swallow it like a sword” technique…

[4plexowner]

dontfollowtheherd – do you recommend the ‘slap the knife blade between two palms’ technique or do you prefer the ‘stop the knife point with your palm and grab the blade with your free hand’ method?

[4plexowner]

dontfollowtheherd – do you recommend the ‘slap the knife blade between two palms’ technique or do you prefer the ‘stop the knife point with your palm and grab the blade with your free hand’ method?

[4plexowner]

dontfollowtheherd – do you recommend the ‘slap the knife blade between two palms’ technique or do you prefer the ‘stop the knife point with your palm and grab the blade with your free hand’ method?

[4plexowner]

dontfollowtheherd – do you recommend the ‘slap the knife blade between two palms’ technique or do you prefer the ‘stop the knife point with your palm and grab the blade with your free hand’ method?

[dontfollowtheherd]

kewp,

I think you’re right on as far as this going on for a while. It’s been running in cycles for 100 years or so – as long as the government started keeping records it’s been averaging nine year cycles. Supply and demand along with market psychology play a large part in it. Getting the financing won’t be that easy after the billions lost this time around. Anyone betting on a much shorter time line might want to invest in a pair of these Kevlar babies:

[img_assist|nid=6659|title=Knife Catchers|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=466|height=356]

dfth

[dontfollowtheherd]

kewp,

I think you’re right on as far as this going on for a while. It’s been running in cycles for 100 years or so – as long as the government started keeping records it’s been averaging nine year cycles. Supply and demand along with market psychology play a large part in it. Getting the financing won’t be that easy after the billions lost this time around. Anyone betting on a much shorter time line might want to invest in a pair of these Kevlar babies:

[img_assist|nid=6659|title=Knife Catchers|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=466|height=356]

dfth

[dontfollowtheherd]

kewp,

I think you’re right on as far as this going on for a while. It’s been running in cycles for 100 years or so – as long as the government started keeping records it’s been averaging nine year cycles. Supply and demand along with market psychology play a large part in it. Getting the financing won’t be that easy after the billions lost this time around. Anyone betting on a much shorter time line might want to invest in a pair of these Kevlar babies:

[img_assist|nid=6659|title=Knife Catchers|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=466|height=356]

dfth

[dontfollowtheherd]

kewp,

I think you’re right on as far as this going on for a while. It’s been running in cycles for 100 years or so – as long as the government started keeping records it’s been averaging nine year cycles. Supply and demand along with market psychology play a large part in it. Getting the financing won’t be that easy after the billions lost this time around. Anyone betting on a much shorter time line might want to invest in a pair of these Kevlar babies:

[img_assist|nid=6659|title=Knife Catchers|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=466|height=356]

dfth

[kewp]

I think you are missing two (big) things.

One, the coming tidal wave of option-ARM resets in the prime segment, which reach out into the 2011 time frame.

Two, the degree to which the US and SoCal economy has been dependent on the housing bubble as the engine for economic growth. As the median house price falls, median income is gonna fall right along with it.

So, if the housing bust is a ball game, it sounds like you think we are about in 4th-5th inning. I think we are still in the first.

A ‘black swan’ event that might help SD is the creative destruction of excess inventory attracts some big companies to the area, particularly in the IE. I can easily imagine a company like Google buying up an office complex in Temecula and offering a free house to any engineer that relocates to there. Could be very attractive to Bay Area renters with families.

[kewp]

I think you are missing two (big) things.

One, the coming tidal wave of option-ARM resets in the prime segment, which reach out into the 2011 time frame.

Two, the degree to which the US and SoCal economy has been dependent on the housing bubble as the engine for economic growth. As the median house price falls, median income is gonna fall right along with it.

So, if the housing bust is a ball game, it sounds like you think we are about in 4th-5th inning. I think we are still in the first.

A ‘black swan’ event that might help SD is the creative destruction of excess inventory attracts some big companies to the area, particularly in the IE. I can easily imagine a company like Google buying up an office complex in Temecula and offering a free house to any engineer that relocates to there. Could be very attractive to Bay Area renters with families.

[kewp]

I think you are missing two (big) things.

One, the coming tidal wave of option-ARM resets in the prime segment, which reach out into the 2011 time frame.

Two, the degree to which the US and SoCal economy has been dependent on the housing bubble as the engine for economic growth. As the median house price falls, median income is gonna fall right along with it.

So, if the housing bust is a ball game, it sounds like you think we are about in 4th-5th inning. I think we are still in the first.

A ‘black swan’ event that might help SD is the creative destruction of excess inventory attracts some big companies to the area, particularly in the IE. I can easily imagine a company like Google buying up an office complex in Temecula and offering a free house to any engineer that relocates to there. Could be very attractive to Bay Area renters with families.

[kewp]

I think you are missing two (big) things.

One, the coming tidal wave of option-ARM resets in the prime segment, which reach out into the 2011 time frame.

Two, the degree to which the US and SoCal economy has been dependent on the housing bubble as the engine for economic growth. As the median house price falls, median income is gonna fall right along with it.

So, if the housing bust is a ball game, it sounds like you think we are about in 4th-5th inning. I think we are still in the first.

A ‘black swan’ event that might help SD is the creative destruction of excess inventory attracts some big companies to the area, particularly in the IE. I can easily imagine a company like Google buying up an office complex in Temecula and offering a free house to any engineer that relocates to there. Could be very attractive to Bay Area renters with families.

[sdrealtor]

I tend to to agree with you Bugs one this one (though I dont always agree with you on everything). I think that the lower end is rapidly declining and will reach a level within the next year where there isnt much in the way of a meaningful decline left. I was trying to get to this point a week ago on one of the threads behind an article by Rich last week. At that point the key from a buyer perspective will be to find the one gem out there. There will be tons of crap out there and finding the one gem out there will be worth the risk of overpaying slightly IMO. When everyone acknowledges we have hit bottom and he have started heading up competition for that one gem will be much keener.

[patientlywaiting]

First off, thanks Bugs for sharing your industry insights.

I agree with Bugs but I take except to what sdrealtor wrote.

Now is not the time to look for the gem.

The low end will continue to drop and prices declines will start to infect the higher end all the way up. The contagion will take down even the best neighborhoods.

Wait two more years and there’ll be plenty of selection.

Joe Homeowner does not buy based on calculations like piggs would. He buys because the wife wants a house. They look at current payments vs. expected new payments. That’s all they care about. The lower the downpayment, the better. If they think they can make an easy $30,000 in equity they’ll take risks.

Since prices are set at the margins, the new entrants are the people we need to be concerned about.

[sdrealtor]

PW,
With all due respect where did I say “Now is not the time to look for the gem.”

IMO, the time to start looking will be after Summer passes. We have several months of big declines left and we really need to reach the off peak months to eek out the last of the major declines. If you can find a gem in Late Summer/Early Fall, watch it for a couple months you may be able to find something worthwhile to buy on the lower end in Late November/Early December. These opportunities will be few and far between. They will be limited to a few areas and mMost likely it will be an REO.

You may not find it but I believe it would be worth looking for the average buyer.

[sdrealtor]

PW,
With all due respect where did I say “Now is not the time to look for the gem.”

IMO, the time to start looking will be after Summer passes. We have several months of big declines left and we really need to reach the off peak months to eek out the last of the major declines. If you can find a gem in Late Summer/Early Fall, watch it for a couple months you may be able to find something worthwhile to buy on the lower end in Late November/Early December. These opportunities will be few and far between. They will be limited to a few areas and mMost likely it will be an REO.

You may not find it but I believe it would be worth looking for the average buyer.

[sdrealtor]

PW,
With all due respect where did I say “Now is not the time to look for the gem.”

IMO, the time to start looking will be after Summer passes. We have several months of big declines left and we really need to reach the off peak months to eek out the last of the major declines. If you can find a gem in Late Summer/Early Fall, watch it for a couple months you may be able to find something worthwhile to buy on the lower end in Late November/Early December. These opportunities will be few and far between. They will be limited to a few areas and mMost likely it will be an REO.

You may not find it but I believe it would be worth looking for the average buyer.

[sdrealtor]

PW,
With all due respect where did I say “Now is not the time to look for the gem.”

IMO, the time to start looking will be after Summer passes. We have several months of big declines left and we really need to reach the off peak months to eek out the last of the major declines. If you can find a gem in Late Summer/Early Fall, watch it for a couple months you may be able to find something worthwhile to buy on the lower end in Late November/Early December. These opportunities will be few and far between. They will be limited to a few areas and mMost likely it will be an REO.

You may not find it but I believe it would be worth looking for the average buyer.

[sdrealtor]

PW,
With all due respect where did I say “Now is not the time to look for the gem.”

IMO, the time to start looking will be after Summer passes. We have several months of big declines left and we really need to reach the off peak months to eek out the last of the major declines. If you can find a gem in Late Summer/Early Fall, watch it for a couple months you may be able to find something worthwhile to buy on the lower end in Late November/Early December. These opportunities will be few and far between. They will be limited to a few areas and mMost likely it will be an REO.

You may not find it but I believe it would be worth looking for the average buyer.

[Anonymous]

Joe Homeowner does not buy based on calculations like piggs would. He buys because the wife wants a house. They look at current payments vs. expected new payments. That’s all they care about. The lower the downpayment, the better. If they think they can make an easy $30,000 in equity they’ll take risks.

That’s why its a problematic assertion around here that if you wait long enough, your dream house at your dream price/per sq ft. will fall into your lap. It rests entirely on the presumption that thousands of non-piggs like your example from above (that could care less about all the charts and trending) do not exist in the world and won’t snag your dream house out from under you before it hits yours dream price.

[temeculaguy]

Decent point Yodle but I’ve been thinking about the non piggs lately. Between 2003 and 2006 who didn’t buy a house that wanted one? Who is left out there to compete with us? I’m starting to think that other than piggs (and others who objected to the prices/fundamentals) and people who were in comas, who are the fence sitters and is that fence very crowded? a few years ago you could get a loan for anything as long as you could breathe and with prices going up, very few sat on the fence. Now the loans are harder to come by and the margins are filled with people who possess even worse credit now but credit requirements are climbing. People who usually snap up bargains (people in the R/E industry) are all broke. Investors are going to want to be closer to 100 in the 100-150x rent multiplier before they get excited and how many are left? Our dream houses were already bought by the “others” and now they sit vacant. With all the vacant homes, is there a high school gym filled with people on cots who are the foreclosure refugees? Even the people looking to move up need buyers, the bottom end is getting hit the hardest. I’m starting to think the “pent up demand” is overplayed because it already feels like I went to disneyland and there are no lines.

When I see sdrealtor and bugs agree, I read that thread a few times and burn it into my memory because it is very likely that prediction will come to fruition.

[Bugs]

The attribute about the Piggs that should stand out is not their predominant bearishness at this point, but their willingness to look forward. To analyze with our heads rather than our hearts.

We were able to predict what would eventually happen because we were willing to project the then-current trends to their logical conclusions. That trait shouldn’t end just because that end of the economic cycle ended.

I’m now hoping that when the reasonable opportunities finally do present themselves that those Piggs who are so inclined will be fully prepared to commit. Mentally as well as financially. I don’t think the time to start preparing for those opportunities is when the market bottoms out – I think you guys want to start getting your stuff together now, well in advance.

Another thing I’m trying to point out is that, just as sdr has been saying all along, most of the deals that come up between now and the midpoint of the next upcycle will be not be the properties that qualify as your dream house. The people who hold the truly great properties will tend to be those who are best prepared to hold them; they mostly won’t be the most marginal sellers who are forced to sell.

In order to recognize the opportunities that will come up you’ll want to orient your expectations as to what those opportunities will really look like. If you’re trying to get into the primo properties at the best discount I think you’re going to have to work your ass off and have a little luck on your side. I think you’ll have a lot of really savvy competition for those properties when they finally do come up, and you’ll have to be prepared to both commit to and execute those purchase decisions. That won’t happen if you’re at all uncertain about what you’re doing.

There’s no question that because of what some of you are looking for you’re going to have to wait until the bitter end before your target market gets to that inflection point. I think your window of opportunity will be briefest of all. However, for every legitimate $800k buyer, there are a dozen $400k buyers, and I think those folks will have a lot more choices in general so long as they keep an open mind.

I’m no realty agent and selling isn’t my thing, so I think it’s okay for me to say (without getting blasted) that being a bear is appropriate when there’s a lot of risk involved. It’s not so smart when the risks drop to bearable levels. Pun intended.

BTW, I was way too early on the timing of the bust, so I freely admit that the same possibility exists for my timing on this, too. Everyone needs to make their own decisions on this based on their own process.

[patientlywaiting]

I think we need to define what a primo property is.

Sorry to say but a tract house that sells for $800k to $1.2 million is not primo. There are several thousand of those upscale suburban houses. When the market bottoms there’s be plenty of selection.

If you want to talk about really primo properties, my recollection is that in 1996 those went begging. Owners had staying power so they did not necessary put them on the market but you could rent a Del Mar oceanfront condo for $2500. Some sold. During racing season people from all over the world would come and rent. When appreciation took off, thanks to swelling stock portfolios they bought.

I don’t believe that most piggs are looking for truly unique properties.

If you’re looking at tract development such as Santa Luz, 4S, Derby Hill, Torrey Hills, San Elijo, La Costa Greens/Valley or whatever you have plenty of time and choices. I believe that prices will revert back to 2002 prices. We shall see.

[an]

To me, I think every area will have “primo” property. It might not be “primo” in comparison to other better areas, but it’s “primo” in their price range and area. For me, those “primo” houses are the one with large lot and a view.

[an]

To me, I think every area will have “primo” property. It might not be “primo” in comparison to other better areas, but it’s “primo” in their price range and area. For me, those “primo” houses are the one with large lot and a view.

[an]

To me, I think every area will have “primo” property. It might not be “primo” in comparison to other better areas, but it’s “primo” in their price range and area. For me, those “primo” houses are the one with large lot and a view.

[an]

To me, I think every area will have “primo” property. It might not be “primo” in comparison to other better areas, but it’s “primo” in their price range and area. For me, those “primo” houses are the one with large lot and a view.

[an]

To me, I think every area will have “primo” property. It might not be “primo” in comparison to other better areas, but it’s “primo” in their price range and area. For me, those “primo” houses are the one with large lot and a view.

[patientlywaiting]

It looks to me like examples of houses that most piggs would buy are featured on Jim’s blog.

Granted, most pigs are not wanting to buy in Oceanside but look at the prices drops on McMansions up there. Those price drops will be marching down south in short order. I’m pretty confident of that.

http://www.bubbleinfo.com/journal/2008/2/20/pacesetters-deluxe.html

Jim has a squish-down theory about how comp-killers cause prices to drop. I agree with theory but I believe that it needs to be complemented by a trickle up theory, where the ease of entry for new entrants caused prices to spike up.

So now we have both squish-down and removal of the foundation of the market. Prices are being pressured by distressed comp killers and the disappearance of the new entrants.

[gn]

Bugs, thanks for sharing your thoughts. Can you give me your opinion on the following:

the remaining 10% bleeds off over 3 or 4 years before settling at rock bottom

Do you think this is typical ? If so, why does it take that long for the "last 10%" to bleed off ?

[NeetaT]

I think the main problem in how slow prices are falling is the fact that people don’t buy what they can easily afford, but buy what they can barley afford thus keeping prices up longer.

[kewp]

I think the main problem in how slow prices are falling is the fact that people don’t buy what they can easily afford, but buy what they can barley afford thus keeping prices up longer.

I don’t think thats the case at all. Maybe its what ran prices up in the first place, but it’s certainly not keeping them there.

Prices are falling slowly because there are literally almost no buyers. The market has become illiquid and seized up.

Everyone that wanted a home in the last decade could get one with the loose lending standards. Now that prices are moving south the few buyers that are on the sidelines with cash & good credit are *not* willing to stretch to make mortgage payments. It doesn’t help that sellers aren’t being realistic with the pricing.

The only thing that is going to bring about a crash is if/when one of the big banks goes under (like Countrywide), whomever buys up their assets for ten cents on the dollar just dumps all the inventory at whatever price the market will bear.

[San Diego Native]

Lots of people I know, including myself, are waiting in the wings, with lots of cash, ready to pounce on properties when the time is right–so there will be competition for the “gems.”

You’d be surprised how many people in San Diego think like “Piggs,” and are ready and waiting to make the most of the downturn.

[San Diego Native]

Lots of people I know, including myself, are waiting in the wings, with lots of cash, ready to pounce on properties when the time is right–so there will be competition for the “gems.”

You’d be surprised how many people in San Diego think like “Piggs,” and are ready and waiting to make the most of the downturn.

[San Diego Native]

Lots of people I know, including myself, are waiting in the wings, with lots of cash, ready to pounce on properties when the time is right–so there will be competition for the “gems.”

You’d be surprised how many people in San Diego think like “Piggs,” and are ready and waiting to make the most of the downturn.

[San Diego Native]

Lots of people I know, including myself, are waiting in the wings, with lots of cash, ready to pounce on properties when the time is right–so there will be competition for the “gems.”

You’d be surprised how many people in San Diego think like “Piggs,” and are ready and waiting to make the most of the downturn.

[San Diego Native]

Lots of people I know, including myself, are waiting in the wings, with lots of cash, ready to pounce on properties when the time is right–so there will be competition for the “gems.”

You’d be surprised how many people in San Diego think like “Piggs,” and are ready and waiting to make the most of the downturn.

[kewp]

I think the main problem in how slow prices are falling is the fact that people don’t buy what they can easily afford, but buy what they can barley afford thus keeping prices up longer.

I don’t think thats the case at all. Maybe its what ran prices up in the first place, but it’s certainly not keeping them there.

Prices are falling slowly because there are literally almost no buyers. The market has become illiquid and seized up.

Everyone that wanted a home in the last decade could get one with the loose lending standards. Now that prices are moving south the few buyers that are on the sidelines with cash & good credit are *not* willing to stretch to make mortgage payments. It doesn’t help that sellers aren’t being realistic with the pricing.

The only thing that is going to bring about a crash is if/when one of the big banks goes under (like Countrywide), whomever buys up their assets for ten cents on the dollar just dumps all the inventory at whatever price the market will bear.

[kewp]

I think the main problem in how slow prices are falling is the fact that people don’t buy what they can easily afford, but buy what they can barley afford thus keeping prices up longer.

I don’t think thats the case at all. Maybe its what ran prices up in the first place, but it’s certainly not keeping them there.

Prices are falling slowly because there are literally almost no buyers. The market has become illiquid and seized up.

Everyone that wanted a home in the last decade could get one with the loose lending standards. Now that prices are moving south the few buyers that are on the sidelines with cash & good credit are *not* willing to stretch to make mortgage payments. It doesn’t help that sellers aren’t being realistic with the pricing.

The only thing that is going to bring about a crash is if/when one of the big banks goes under (like Countrywide), whomever buys up their assets for ten cents on the dollar just dumps all the inventory at whatever price the market will bear.

[kewp]

I think the main problem in how slow prices are falling is the fact that people don’t buy what they can easily afford, but buy what they can barley afford thus keeping prices up longer.

I don’t think thats the case at all. Maybe its what ran prices up in the first place, but it’s certainly not keeping them there.

Prices are falling slowly because there are literally almost no buyers. The market has become illiquid and seized up.

Everyone that wanted a home in the last decade could get one with the loose lending standards. Now that prices are moving south the few buyers that are on the sidelines with cash & good credit are *not* willing to stretch to make mortgage payments. It doesn’t help that sellers aren’t being realistic with the pricing.

The only thing that is going to bring about a crash is if/when one of the big banks goes under (like Countrywide), whomever buys up their assets for ten cents on the dollar just dumps all the inventory at whatever price the market will bear.

[kewp]

I think the main problem in how slow prices are falling is the fact that people don’t buy what they can easily afford, but buy what they can barley afford thus keeping prices up longer.

I don’t think thats the case at all. Maybe its what ran prices up in the first place, but it’s certainly not keeping them there.

Prices are falling slowly because there are literally almost no buyers. The market has become illiquid and seized up.

Everyone that wanted a home in the last decade could get one with the loose lending standards. Now that prices are moving south the few buyers that are on the sidelines with cash & good credit are *not* willing to stretch to make mortgage payments. It doesn’t help that sellers aren’t being realistic with the pricing.

The only thing that is going to bring about a crash is if/when one of the big banks goes under (like Countrywide), whomever buys up their assets for ten cents on the dollar just dumps all the inventory at whatever price the market will bear.

[NeetaT]

I think the main problem in how slow prices are falling is the fact that people don’t buy what they can easily afford, but buy what they can barley afford thus keeping prices up longer.

[NeetaT]

I think the main problem in how slow prices are falling is the fact that people don’t buy what they can easily afford, but buy what they can barley afford thus keeping prices up longer.

[NeetaT]

I think the main problem in how slow prices are falling is the fact that people don’t buy what they can easily afford, but buy what they can barley afford thus keeping prices up longer.

[NeetaT]

I think the main problem in how slow prices are falling is the fact that people don’t buy what they can easily afford, but buy what they can barley afford thus keeping prices up longer.

[Bugs]

GN,

In reference to my “last 10% Bleeds off” remark.

Up until the beginning of this year, I was in the “long slow decline” camp, meaning I figured the slope of the decline would go to about 45 degree or so and it would take 5 or 6 years from the peak to settle down. In other words, I had projected a 1990s type of decline, albeit from a much higher starting point.

However, the big chuck losses over the last couple months – which caught me by surprise – has now resulted in a correction that has already covered a LOT of ground, pricewise. This rate of decline just isn’t sustainable over the long term for the simple reason that there isn’t enough gas to burn off to last that entire time period. Just as trees don’t grow to the sky the leaves can’t fall below ground level.

So instead of the Japan-style bleed off that takes several years, I have now come to the conclusion that if this current trend continues we might be looking at a downcycle that more closely resembles a “U” where the downstroke occurs quickly and the extended bottom bleeds off the rest over time.

I suppose we could get a bigger dead-cat bounce this spring, followed by a more moderate decline; or perhaps a series of more radical bounce-decline jogs on the way down.

I think a lot will depend on what happens over the next 3 or 4 months. If there is going to be a significant bounce then it follows that it will take longer to clear the suckers out. If the spring bounce is as weak this year as it was last year then I think 2008 will end up being the big year for declines. That’s because by the time you whack another 20% off the current prices you’re going to be getting within range of some of the rents.

And yes, I agree with the poster above (sorry, I forgot who it was) who said rents might decline, thereby moving that buy point even lower. The examples I used above were just for illustration; they weren’t intended to be a prediction of timing. I’ve learned my lesson on that one, thank you.

[Bugs]

GN,

In reference to my “last 10% Bleeds off” remark.

Up until the beginning of this year, I was in the “long slow decline” camp, meaning I figured the slope of the decline would go to about 45 degree or so and it would take 5 or 6 years from the peak to settle down. In other words, I had projected a 1990s type of decline, albeit from a much higher starting point.

However, the big chuck losses over the last couple months – which caught me by surprise – has now resulted in a correction that has already covered a LOT of ground, pricewise. This rate of decline just isn’t sustainable over the long term for the simple reason that there isn’t enough gas to burn off to last that entire time period. Just as trees don’t grow to the sky the leaves can’t fall below ground level.

So instead of the Japan-style bleed off that takes several years, I have now come to the conclusion that if this current trend continues we might be looking at a downcycle that more closely resembles a “U” where the downstroke occurs quickly and the extended bottom bleeds off the rest over time.

I suppose we could get a bigger dead-cat bounce this spring, followed by a more moderate decline; or perhaps a series of more radical bounce-decline jogs on the way down.

I think a lot will depend on what happens over the next 3 or 4 months. If there is going to be a significant bounce then it follows that it will take longer to clear the suckers out. If the spring bounce is as weak this year as it was last year then I think 2008 will end up being the big year for declines. That’s because by the time you whack another 20% off the current prices you’re going to be getting within range of some of the rents.

And yes, I agree with the poster above (sorry, I forgot who it was) who said rents might decline, thereby moving that buy point even lower. The examples I used above were just for illustration; they weren’t intended to be a prediction of timing. I’ve learned my lesson on that one, thank you.

[Bugs]

GN,

In reference to my “last 10% Bleeds off” remark.

Up until the beginning of this year, I was in the “long slow decline” camp, meaning I figured the slope of the decline would go to about 45 degree or so and it would take 5 or 6 years from the peak to settle down. In other words, I had projected a 1990s type of decline, albeit from a much higher starting point.

However, the big chuck losses over the last couple months – which caught me by surprise – has now resulted in a correction that has already covered a LOT of ground, pricewise. This rate of decline just isn’t sustainable over the long term for the simple reason that there isn’t enough gas to burn off to last that entire time period. Just as trees don’t grow to the sky the leaves can’t fall below ground level.

So instead of the Japan-style bleed off that takes several years, I have now come to the conclusion that if this current trend continues we might be looking at a downcycle that more closely resembles a “U” where the downstroke occurs quickly and the extended bottom bleeds off the rest over time.

I suppose we could get a bigger dead-cat bounce this spring, followed by a more moderate decline; or perhaps a series of more radical bounce-decline jogs on the way down.

I think a lot will depend on what happens over the next 3 or 4 months. If there is going to be a significant bounce then it follows that it will take longer to clear the suckers out. If the spring bounce is as weak this year as it was last year then I think 2008 will end up being the big year for declines. That’s because by the time you whack another 20% off the current prices you’re going to be getting within range of some of the rents.

And yes, I agree with the poster above (sorry, I forgot who it was) who said rents might decline, thereby moving that buy point even lower. The examples I used above were just for illustration; they weren’t intended to be a prediction of timing. I’ve learned my lesson on that one, thank you.

[Bugs]

GN,

In reference to my “last 10% Bleeds off” remark.

Up until the beginning of this year, I was in the “long slow decline” camp, meaning I figured the slope of the decline would go to about 45 degree or so and it would take 5 or 6 years from the peak to settle down. In other words, I had projected a 1990s type of decline, albeit from a much higher starting point.

However, the big chuck losses over the last couple months – which caught me by surprise – has now resulted in a correction that has already covered a LOT of ground, pricewise. This rate of decline just isn’t sustainable over the long term for the simple reason that there isn’t enough gas to burn off to last that entire time period. Just as trees don’t grow to the sky the leaves can’t fall below ground level.

So instead of the Japan-style bleed off that takes several years, I have now come to the conclusion that if this current trend continues we might be looking at a downcycle that more closely resembles a “U” where the downstroke occurs quickly and the extended bottom bleeds off the rest over time.

I suppose we could get a bigger dead-cat bounce this spring, followed by a more moderate decline; or perhaps a series of more radical bounce-decline jogs on the way down.

I think a lot will depend on what happens over the next 3 or 4 months. If there is going to be a significant bounce then it follows that it will take longer to clear the suckers out. If the spring bounce is as weak this year as it was last year then I think 2008 will end up being the big year for declines. That’s because by the time you whack another 20% off the current prices you’re going to be getting within range of some of the rents.

And yes, I agree with the poster above (sorry, I forgot who it was) who said rents might decline, thereby moving that buy point even lower. The examples I used above were just for illustration; they weren’t intended to be a prediction of timing. I’ve learned my lesson on that one, thank you.

[Bugs]

GN,

In reference to my “last 10% Bleeds off” remark.

Up until the beginning of this year, I was in the “long slow decline” camp, meaning I figured the slope of the decline would go to about 45 degree or so and it would take 5 or 6 years from the peak to settle down. In other words, I had projected a 1990s type of decline, albeit from a much higher starting point.

However, the big chuck losses over the last couple months – which caught me by surprise – has now resulted in a correction that has already covered a LOT of ground, pricewise. This rate of decline just isn’t sustainable over the long term for the simple reason that there isn’t enough gas to burn off to last that entire time period. Just as trees don’t grow to the sky the leaves can’t fall below ground level.

So instead of the Japan-style bleed off that takes several years, I have now come to the conclusion that if this current trend continues we might be looking at a downcycle that more closely resembles a “U” where the downstroke occurs quickly and the extended bottom bleeds off the rest over time.

I suppose we could get a bigger dead-cat bounce this spring, followed by a more moderate decline; or perhaps a series of more radical bounce-decline jogs on the way down.

I think a lot will depend on what happens over the next 3 or 4 months. If there is going to be a significant bounce then it follows that it will take longer to clear the suckers out. If the spring bounce is as weak this year as it was last year then I think 2008 will end up being the big year for declines. That’s because by the time you whack another 20% off the current prices you’re going to be getting within range of some of the rents.

And yes, I agree with the poster above (sorry, I forgot who it was) who said rents might decline, thereby moving that buy point even lower. The examples I used above were just for illustration; they weren’t intended to be a prediction of timing. I’ve learned my lesson on that one, thank you.

[gn]

Bugs, thanks for sharing your thoughts. Can you give me your opinion on the following:

the remaining 10% bleeds off over 3 or 4 years before settling at rock bottom

Do you think this is typical ? If so, why does it take that long for the "last 10%" to bleed off ?

[gn]

Bugs, thanks for sharing your thoughts. Can you give me your opinion on the following:

the remaining 10% bleeds off over 3 or 4 years before settling at rock bottom

Do you think this is typical ? If so, why does it take that long for the "last 10%" to bleed off ?

[gn]

Bugs, thanks for sharing your thoughts. Can you give me your opinion on the following:

the remaining 10% bleeds off over 3 or 4 years before settling at rock bottom

Do you think this is typical ? If so, why does it take that long for the "last 10%" to bleed off ?

[gn]

Bugs, thanks for sharing your thoughts. Can you give me your opinion on the following:

the remaining 10% bleeds off over 3 or 4 years before settling at rock bottom

Do you think this is typical ? If so, why does it take that long for the "last 10%" to bleed off ?

[patientlywaiting]

It looks to me like examples of houses that most piggs would buy are featured on Jim’s blog.

Granted, most pigs are not wanting to buy in Oceanside but look at the prices drops on McMansions up there. Those price drops will be marching down south in short order. I’m pretty confident of that.

http://www.bubbleinfo.com/journal/2008/2/20/pacesetters-deluxe.html

Jim has a squish-down theory about how comp-killers cause prices to drop. I agree with theory but I believe that it needs to be complemented by a trickle up theory, where the ease of entry for new entrants caused prices to spike up.

So now we have both squish-down and removal of the foundation of the market. Prices are being pressured by distressed comp killers and the disappearance of the new entrants.

[patientlywaiting]

It looks to me like examples of houses that most piggs would buy are featured on Jim’s blog.

Granted, most pigs are not wanting to buy in Oceanside but look at the prices drops on McMansions up there. Those price drops will be marching down south in short order. I’m pretty confident of that.

http://www.bubbleinfo.com/journal/2008/2/20/pacesetters-deluxe.html

Jim has a squish-down theory about how comp-killers cause prices to drop. I agree with theory but I believe that it needs to be complemented by a trickle up theory, where the ease of entry for new entrants caused prices to spike up.

So now we have both squish-down and removal of the foundation of the market. Prices are being pressured by distressed comp killers and the disappearance of the new entrants.

[patientlywaiting]

It looks to me like examples of houses that most piggs would buy are featured on Jim’s blog.

Granted, most pigs are not wanting to buy in Oceanside but look at the prices drops on McMansions up there. Those price drops will be marching down south in short order. I’m pretty confident of that.

http://www.bubbleinfo.com/journal/2008/2/20/pacesetters-deluxe.html

Jim has a squish-down theory about how comp-killers cause prices to drop. I agree with theory but I believe that it needs to be complemented by a trickle up theory, where the ease of entry for new entrants caused prices to spike up.

So now we have both squish-down and removal of the foundation of the market. Prices are being pressured by distressed comp killers and the disappearance of the new entrants.

[patientlywaiting]

It looks to me like examples of houses that most piggs would buy are featured on Jim’s blog.

Granted, most pigs are not wanting to buy in Oceanside but look at the prices drops on McMansions up there. Those price drops will be marching down south in short order. I’m pretty confident of that.

http://www.bubbleinfo.com/journal/2008/2/20/pacesetters-deluxe.html

Jim has a squish-down theory about how comp-killers cause prices to drop. I agree with theory but I believe that it needs to be complemented by a trickle up theory, where the ease of entry for new entrants caused prices to spike up.

So now we have both squish-down and removal of the foundation of the market. Prices are being pressured by distressed comp killers and the disappearance of the new entrants.

[patientlywaiting]

I think we need to define what a primo property is.

Sorry to say but a tract house that sells for $800k to $1.2 million is not primo. There are several thousand of those upscale suburban houses. When the market bottoms there’s be plenty of selection.

If you want to talk about really primo properties, my recollection is that in 1996 those went begging. Owners had staying power so they did not necessary put them on the market but you could rent a Del Mar oceanfront condo for $2500. Some sold. During racing season people from all over the world would come and rent. When appreciation took off, thanks to swelling stock portfolios they bought.

I don’t believe that most piggs are looking for truly unique properties.

If you’re looking at tract development such as Santa Luz, 4S, Derby Hill, Torrey Hills, San Elijo, La Costa Greens/Valley or whatever you have plenty of time and choices. I believe that prices will revert back to 2002 prices. We shall see.

[patientlywaiting]

I think we need to define what a primo property is.

Sorry to say but a tract house that sells for $800k to $1.2 million is not primo. There are several thousand of those upscale suburban houses. When the market bottoms there’s be plenty of selection.

If you want to talk about really primo properties, my recollection is that in 1996 those went begging. Owners had staying power so they did not necessary put them on the market but you could rent a Del Mar oceanfront condo for $2500. Some sold. During racing season people from all over the world would come and rent. When appreciation took off, thanks to swelling stock portfolios they bought.

I don’t believe that most piggs are looking for truly unique properties.

If you’re looking at tract development such as Santa Luz, 4S, Derby Hill, Torrey Hills, San Elijo, La Costa Greens/Valley or whatever you have plenty of time and choices. I believe that prices will revert back to 2002 prices. We shall see.

[patientlywaiting]

I think we need to define what a primo property is.

Sorry to say but a tract house that sells for $800k to $1.2 million is not primo. There are several thousand of those upscale suburban houses. When the market bottoms there’s be plenty of selection.

If you want to talk about really primo properties, my recollection is that in 1996 those went begging. Owners had staying power so they did not necessary put them on the market but you could rent a Del Mar oceanfront condo for $2500. Some sold. During racing season people from all over the world would come and rent. When appreciation took off, thanks to swelling stock portfolios they bought.

I don’t believe that most piggs are looking for truly unique properties.

If you’re looking at tract development such as Santa Luz, 4S, Derby Hill, Torrey Hills, San Elijo, La Costa Greens/Valley or whatever you have plenty of time and choices. I believe that prices will revert back to 2002 prices. We shall see.

[patientlywaiting]

I think we need to define what a primo property is.

Sorry to say but a tract house that sells for $800k to $1.2 million is not primo. There are several thousand of those upscale suburban houses. When the market bottoms there’s be plenty of selection.

If you want to talk about really primo properties, my recollection is that in 1996 those went begging. Owners had staying power so they did not necessary put them on the market but you could rent a Del Mar oceanfront condo for $2500. Some sold. During racing season people from all over the world would come and rent. When appreciation took off, thanks to swelling stock portfolios they bought.

I don’t believe that most piggs are looking for truly unique properties.

If you’re looking at tract development such as Santa Luz, 4S, Derby Hill, Torrey Hills, San Elijo, La Costa Greens/Valley or whatever you have plenty of time and choices. I believe that prices will revert back to 2002 prices. We shall see.

[Bugs]

The attribute about the Piggs that should stand out is not their predominant bearishness at this point, but their willingness to look forward. To analyze with our heads rather than our hearts.

We were able to predict what would eventually happen because we were willing to project the then-current trends to their logical conclusions. That trait shouldn’t end just because that end of the economic cycle ended.

I’m now hoping that when the reasonable opportunities finally do present themselves that those Piggs who are so inclined will be fully prepared to commit. Mentally as well as financially. I don’t think the time to start preparing for those opportunities is when the market bottoms out – I think you guys want to start getting your stuff together now, well in advance.

Another thing I’m trying to point out is that, just as sdr has been saying all along, most of the deals that come up between now and the midpoint of the next upcycle will be not be the properties that qualify as your dream house. The people who hold the truly great properties will tend to be those who are best prepared to hold them; they mostly won’t be the most marginal sellers who are forced to sell.

In order to recognize the opportunities that will come up you’ll want to orient your expectations as to what those opportunities will really look like. If you’re trying to get into the primo properties at the best discount I think you’re going to have to work your ass off and have a little luck on your side. I think you’ll have a lot of really savvy competition for those properties when they finally do come up, and you’ll have to be prepared to both commit to and execute those purchase decisions. That won’t happen if you’re at all uncertain about what you’re doing.

There’s no question that because of what some of you are looking for you’re going to have to wait until the bitter end before your target market gets to that inflection point. I think your window of opportunity will be briefest of all. However, for every legitimate $800k buyer, there are a dozen $400k buyers, and I think those folks will have a lot more choices in general so long as they keep an open mind.

I’m no realty agent and selling isn’t my thing, so I think it’s okay for me to say (without getting blasted) that being a bear is appropriate when there’s a lot of risk involved. It’s not so smart when the risks drop to bearable levels. Pun intended.

BTW, I was way too early on the timing of the bust, so I freely admit that the same possibility exists for my timing on this, too. Everyone needs to make their own decisions on this based on their own process.

[Bugs]

The attribute about the Piggs that should stand out is not their predominant bearishness at this point, but their willingness to look forward. To analyze with our heads rather than our hearts.

We were able to predict what would eventually happen because we were willing to project the then-current trends to their logical conclusions. That trait shouldn’t end just because that end of the economic cycle ended.

I’m now hoping that when the reasonable opportunities finally do present themselves that those Piggs who are so inclined will be fully prepared to commit. Mentally as well as financially. I don’t think the time to start preparing for those opportunities is when the market bottoms out – I think you guys want to start getting your stuff together now, well in advance.

Another thing I’m trying to point out is that, just as sdr has been saying all along, most of the deals that come up between now and the midpoint of the next upcycle will be not be the properties that qualify as your dream house. The people who hold the truly great properties will tend to be those who are best prepared to hold them; they mostly won’t be the most marginal sellers who are forced to sell.

In order to recognize the opportunities that will come up you’ll want to orient your expectations as to what those opportunities will really look like. If you’re trying to get into the primo properties at the best discount I think you’re going to have to work your ass off and have a little luck on your side. I think you’ll have a lot of really savvy competition for those properties when they finally do come up, and you’ll have to be prepared to both commit to and execute those purchase decisions. That won’t happen if you’re at all uncertain about what you’re doing.

There’s no question that because of what some of you are looking for you’re going to have to wait until the bitter end before your target market gets to that inflection point. I think your window of opportunity will be briefest of all. However, for every legitimate $800k buyer, there are a dozen $400k buyers, and I think those folks will have a lot more choices in general so long as they keep an open mind.

I’m no realty agent and selling isn’t my thing, so I think it’s okay for me to say (without getting blasted) that being a bear is appropriate when there’s a lot of risk involved. It’s not so smart when the risks drop to bearable levels. Pun intended.

BTW, I was way too early on the timing of the bust, so I freely admit that the same possibility exists for my timing on this, too. Everyone needs to make their own decisions on this based on their own process.

[Bugs]

The attribute about the Piggs that should stand out is not their predominant bearishness at this point, but their willingness to look forward. To analyze with our heads rather than our hearts.

We were able to predict what would eventually happen because we were willing to project the then-current trends to their logical conclusions. That trait shouldn’t end just because that end of the economic cycle ended.

I’m now hoping that when the reasonable opportunities finally do present themselves that those Piggs who are so inclined will be fully prepared to commit. Mentally as well as financially. I don’t think the time to start preparing for those opportunities is when the market bottoms out – I think you guys want to start getting your stuff together now, well in advance.

Another thing I’m trying to point out is that, just as sdr has been saying all along, most of the deals that come up between now and the midpoint of the next upcycle will be not be the properties that qualify as your dream house. The people who hold the truly great properties will tend to be those who are best prepared to hold them; they mostly won’t be the most marginal sellers who are forced to sell.

In order to recognize the opportunities that will come up you’ll want to orient your expectations as to what those opportunities will really look like. If you’re trying to get into the primo properties at the best discount I think you’re going to have to work your ass off and have a little luck on your side. I think you’ll have a lot of really savvy competition for those properties when they finally do come up, and you’ll have to be prepared to both commit to and execute those purchase decisions. That won’t happen if you’re at all uncertain about what you’re doing.

There’s no question that because of what some of you are looking for you’re going to have to wait until the bitter end before your target market gets to that inflection point. I think your window of opportunity will be briefest of all. However, for every legitimate $800k buyer, there are a dozen $400k buyers, and I think those folks will have a lot more choices in general so long as they keep an open mind.

I’m no realty agent and selling isn’t my thing, so I think it’s okay for me to say (without getting blasted) that being a bear is appropriate when there’s a lot of risk involved. It’s not so smart when the risks drop to bearable levels. Pun intended.

BTW, I was way too early on the timing of the bust, so I freely admit that the same possibility exists for my timing on this, too. Everyone needs to make their own decisions on this based on their own process.

[Bugs]

The attribute about the Piggs that should stand out is not their predominant bearishness at this point, but their willingness to look forward. To analyze with our heads rather than our hearts.

We were able to predict what would eventually happen because we were willing to project the then-current trends to their logical conclusions. That trait shouldn’t end just because that end of the economic cycle ended.

I’m now hoping that when the reasonable opportunities finally do present themselves that those Piggs who are so inclined will be fully prepared to commit. Mentally as well as financially. I don’t think the time to start preparing for those opportunities is when the market bottoms out – I think you guys want to start getting your stuff together now, well in advance.

Another thing I’m trying to point out is that, just as sdr has been saying all along, most of the deals that come up between now and the midpoint of the next upcycle will be not be the properties that qualify as your dream house. The people who hold the truly great properties will tend to be those who are best prepared to hold them; they mostly won’t be the most marginal sellers who are forced to sell.

In order to recognize the opportunities that will come up you’ll want to orient your expectations as to what those opportunities will really look like. If you’re trying to get into the primo properties at the best discount I think you’re going to have to work your ass off and have a little luck on your side. I think you’ll have a lot of really savvy competition for those properties when they finally do come up, and you’ll have to be prepared to both commit to and execute those purchase decisions. That won’t happen if you’re at all uncertain about what you’re doing.

There’s no question that because of what some of you are looking for you’re going to have to wait until the bitter end before your target market gets to that inflection point. I think your window of opportunity will be briefest of all. However, for every legitimate $800k buyer, there are a dozen $400k buyers, and I think those folks will have a lot more choices in general so long as they keep an open mind.

I’m no realty agent and selling isn’t my thing, so I think it’s okay for me to say (without getting blasted) that being a bear is appropriate when there’s a lot of risk involved. It’s not so smart when the risks drop to bearable levels. Pun intended.

BTW, I was way too early on the timing of the bust, so I freely admit that the same possibility exists for my timing on this, too. Everyone needs to make their own decisions on this based on their own process.

[temeculaguy]

Decent point Yodle but I’ve been thinking about the non piggs lately. Between 2003 and 2006 who didn’t buy a house that wanted one? Who is left out there to compete with us? I’m starting to think that other than piggs (and others who objected to the prices/fundamentals) and people who were in comas, who are the fence sitters and is that fence very crowded? a few years ago you could get a loan for anything as long as you could breathe and with prices going up, very few sat on the fence. Now the loans are harder to come by and the margins are filled with people who possess even worse credit now but credit requirements are climbing. People who usually snap up bargains (people in the R/E industry) are all broke. Investors are going to want to be closer to 100 in the 100-150x rent multiplier before they get excited and how many are left? Our dream houses were already bought by the “others” and now they sit vacant. With all the vacant homes, is there a high school gym filled with people on cots who are the foreclosure refugees? Even the people looking to move up need buyers, the bottom end is getting hit the hardest. I’m starting to think the “pent up demand” is overplayed because it already feels like I went to disneyland and there are no lines.

When I see sdrealtor and bugs agree, I read that thread a few times and burn it into my memory because it is very likely that prediction will come to fruition.

[temeculaguy]

Decent point Yodle but I’ve been thinking about the non piggs lately. Between 2003 and 2006 who didn’t buy a house that wanted one? Who is left out there to compete with us? I’m starting to think that other than piggs (and others who objected to the prices/fundamentals) and people who were in comas, who are the fence sitters and is that fence very crowded? a few years ago you could get a loan for anything as long as you could breathe and with prices going up, very few sat on the fence. Now the loans are harder to come by and the margins are filled with people who possess even worse credit now but credit requirements are climbing. People who usually snap up bargains (people in the R/E industry) are all broke. Investors are going to want to be closer to 100 in the 100-150x rent multiplier before they get excited and how many are left? Our dream houses were already bought by the “others” and now they sit vacant. With all the vacant homes, is there a high school gym filled with people on cots who are the foreclosure refugees? Even the people looking to move up need buyers, the bottom end is getting hit the hardest. I’m starting to think the “pent up demand” is overplayed because it already feels like I went to disneyland and there are no lines.

When I see sdrealtor and bugs agree, I read that thread a few times and burn it into my memory because it is very likely that prediction will come to fruition.

[temeculaguy]

Decent point Yodle but I’ve been thinking about the non piggs lately. Between 2003 and 2006 who didn’t buy a house that wanted one? Who is left out there to compete with us? I’m starting to think that other than piggs (and others who objected to the prices/fundamentals) and people who were in comas, who are the fence sitters and is that fence very crowded? a few years ago you could get a loan for anything as long as you could breathe and with prices going up, very few sat on the fence. Now the loans are harder to come by and the margins are filled with people who possess even worse credit now but credit requirements are climbing. People who usually snap up bargains (people in the R/E industry) are all broke. Investors are going to want to be closer to 100 in the 100-150x rent multiplier before they get excited and how many are left? Our dream houses were already bought by the “others” and now they sit vacant. With all the vacant homes, is there a high school gym filled with people on cots who are the foreclosure refugees? Even the people looking to move up need buyers, the bottom end is getting hit the hardest. I’m starting to think the “pent up demand” is overplayed because it already feels like I went to disneyland and there are no lines.

When I see sdrealtor and bugs agree, I read that thread a few times and burn it into my memory because it is very likely that prediction will come to fruition.

[temeculaguy]

Decent point Yodle but I’ve been thinking about the non piggs lately. Between 2003 and 2006 who didn’t buy a house that wanted one? Who is left out there to compete with us? I’m starting to think that other than piggs (and others who objected to the prices/fundamentals) and people who were in comas, who are the fence sitters and is that fence very crowded? a few years ago you could get a loan for anything as long as you could breathe and with prices going up, very few sat on the fence. Now the loans are harder to come by and the margins are filled with people who possess even worse credit now but credit requirements are climbing. People who usually snap up bargains (people in the R/E industry) are all broke. Investors are going to want to be closer to 100 in the 100-150x rent multiplier before they get excited and how many are left? Our dream houses were already bought by the “others” and now they sit vacant. With all the vacant homes, is there a high school gym filled with people on cots who are the foreclosure refugees? Even the people looking to move up need buyers, the bottom end is getting hit the hardest. I’m starting to think the “pent up demand” is overplayed because it already feels like I went to disneyland and there are no lines.

When I see sdrealtor and bugs agree, I read that thread a few times and burn it into my memory because it is very likely that prediction will come to fruition.

[barnaby33]

It rests entirely on the presumption that thousands of non-piggs like your example from above (that could care less about all the charts and trending) do not exist in the world and won’t snag your dream house out from under you before it hits yours dream price.

Actually it rests on the assumption that they won’t be able, which is why prices fell in the first place. People would still love to buy, they just cannot afford it. So piggs are the people who saw this coming and saved accordingly. Sure there are non-piggs doing the same, but not a lot.

Josh

[patientlywaiting]

sdrealtor, sorry if I misunderstood you.

I listen to what the average person says. I talk to people whenever I can.

Piggs are ahead of the curve by at least 2 years.

There’s still a lot of optimism out there about a housing rebound and you see that in the prices people are listing their houses at.

By all accounts we are already in a recession. And even if we can pull of out of one, 1% to 2% growth rate feels like a recession.

Joe and Jane Homeowners are now exhausting their savings holding onto their houses. There will be a time when they say, “f— it. no house is worth the stress.” When that happens, the housing crash will occur in earnest.

The average person still thinks that we are in period of “adjustment” and the prices will move up again. When that doesn’t happen, the resistance will dissolve in chaos.

Everyone knows that “financing is the gasoline that fuels the market.” Financing is harder to come by, down payments are now required, and there’s no appreciation to be had. The new entrants are not coming in to support prices.

In my mind, new entrants are the foundation that supports the housing market. And the new entrants are all gone.

[patientlywaiting]

sdrealtor, sorry if I misunderstood you.

I listen to what the average person says. I talk to people whenever I can.

Piggs are ahead of the curve by at least 2 years.

There’s still a lot of optimism out there about a housing rebound and you see that in the prices people are listing their houses at.

By all accounts we are already in a recession. And even if we can pull of out of one, 1% to 2% growth rate feels like a recession.

Joe and Jane Homeowners are now exhausting their savings holding onto their houses. There will be a time when they say, “f— it. no house is worth the stress.” When that happens, the housing crash will occur in earnest.

The average person still thinks that we are in period of “adjustment” and the prices will move up again. When that doesn’t happen, the resistance will dissolve in chaos.

Everyone knows that “financing is the gasoline that fuels the market.” Financing is harder to come by, down payments are now required, and there’s no appreciation to be had. The new entrants are not coming in to support prices.

In my mind, new entrants are the foundation that supports the housing market. And the new entrants are all gone.

[patientlywaiting]

sdrealtor, sorry if I misunderstood you.

I listen to what the average person says. I talk to people whenever I can.

Piggs are ahead of the curve by at least 2 years.

There’s still a lot of optimism out there about a housing rebound and you see that in the prices people are listing their houses at.

By all accounts we are already in a recession. And even if we can pull of out of one, 1% to 2% growth rate feels like a recession.

Joe and Jane Homeowners are now exhausting their savings holding onto their houses. There will be a time when they say, “f— it. no house is worth the stress.” When that happens, the housing crash will occur in earnest.

The average person still thinks that we are in period of “adjustment” and the prices will move up again. When that doesn’t happen, the resistance will dissolve in chaos.

Everyone knows that “financing is the gasoline that fuels the market.” Financing is harder to come by, down payments are now required, and there’s no appreciation to be had. The new entrants are not coming in to support prices.

In my mind, new entrants are the foundation that supports the housing market. And the new entrants are all gone.

[patientlywaiting]

sdrealtor, sorry if I misunderstood you.

I listen to what the average person says. I talk to people whenever I can.

Piggs are ahead of the curve by at least 2 years.

There’s still a lot of optimism out there about a housing rebound and you see that in the prices people are listing their houses at.

By all accounts we are already in a recession. And even if we can pull of out of one, 1% to 2% growth rate feels like a recession.

Joe and Jane Homeowners are now exhausting their savings holding onto their houses. There will be a time when they say, “f— it. no house is worth the stress.” When that happens, the housing crash will occur in earnest.

The average person still thinks that we are in period of “adjustment” and the prices will move up again. When that doesn’t happen, the resistance will dissolve in chaos.

Everyone knows that “financing is the gasoline that fuels the market.” Financing is harder to come by, down payments are now required, and there’s no appreciation to be had. The new entrants are not coming in to support prices.

In my mind, new entrants are the foundation that supports the housing market. And the new entrants are all gone.

[patientlywaiting]

sdrealtor, sorry if I misunderstood you.

I listen to what the average person says. I talk to people whenever I can.

Piggs are ahead of the curve by at least 2 years.

There’s still a lot of optimism out there about a housing rebound and you see that in the prices people are listing their houses at.

By all accounts we are already in a recession. And even if we can pull of out of one, 1% to 2% growth rate feels like a recession.

Joe and Jane Homeowners are now exhausting their savings holding onto their houses. There will be a time when they say, “f— it. no house is worth the stress.” When that happens, the housing crash will occur in earnest.

The average person still thinks that we are in period of “adjustment” and the prices will move up again. When that doesn’t happen, the resistance will dissolve in chaos.

Everyone knows that “financing is the gasoline that fuels the market.” Financing is harder to come by, down payments are now required, and there’s no appreciation to be had. The new entrants are not coming in to support prices.

In my mind, new entrants are the foundation that supports the housing market. And the new entrants are all gone.

[barnaby33]

It rests entirely on the presumption that thousands of non-piggs like your example from above (that could care less about all the charts and trending) do not exist in the world and won’t snag your dream house out from under you before it hits yours dream price.

Actually it rests on the assumption that they won’t be able, which is why prices fell in the first place. People would still love to buy, they just cannot afford it. So piggs are the people who saw this coming and saved accordingly. Sure there are non-piggs doing the same, but not a lot.

Josh

[barnaby33]

It rests entirely on the presumption that thousands of non-piggs like your example from above (that could care less about all the charts and trending) do not exist in the world and won’t snag your dream house out from under you before it hits yours dream price.

Actually it rests on the assumption that they won’t be able, which is why prices fell in the first place. People would still love to buy, they just cannot afford it. So piggs are the people who saw this coming and saved accordingly. Sure there are non-piggs doing the same, but not a lot.

Josh

[barnaby33]

It rests entirely on the presumption that thousands of non-piggs like your example from above (that could care less about all the charts and trending) do not exist in the world and won’t snag your dream house out from under you before it hits yours dream price.

Actually it rests on the assumption that they won’t be able, which is why prices fell in the first place. People would still love to buy, they just cannot afford it. So piggs are the people who saw this coming and saved accordingly. Sure there are non-piggs doing the same, but not a lot.

Josh

[barnaby33]

It rests entirely on the presumption that thousands of non-piggs like your example from above (that could care less about all the charts and trending) do not exist in the world and won’t snag your dream house out from under you before it hits yours dream price.

Actually it rests on the assumption that they won’t be able, which is why prices fell in the first place. People would still love to buy, they just cannot afford it. So piggs are the people who saw this coming and saved accordingly. Sure there are non-piggs doing the same, but not a lot.

Josh

[Anonymous]

Joe Homeowner does not buy based on calculations like piggs would. He buys because the wife wants a house. They look at current payments vs. expected new payments. That’s all they care about. The lower the downpayment, the better. If they think they can make an easy $30,000 in equity they’ll take risks.

That’s why its a problematic assertion around here that if you wait long enough, your dream house at your dream price/per sq ft. will fall into your lap. It rests entirely on the presumption that thousands of non-piggs like your example from above (that could care less about all the charts and trending) do not exist in the world and won’t snag your dream house out from under you before it hits yours dream price.

[Anonymous]

Joe Homeowner does not buy based on calculations like piggs would. He buys because the wife wants a house. They look at current payments vs. expected new payments. That’s all they care about. The lower the downpayment, the better. If they think they can make an easy $30,000 in equity they’ll take risks.

That’s why its a problematic assertion around here that if you wait long enough, your dream house at your dream price/per sq ft. will fall into your lap. It rests entirely on the presumption that thousands of non-piggs like your example from above (that could care less about all the charts and trending) do not exist in the world and won’t snag your dream house out from under you before it hits yours dream price.

[Anonymous]

Joe Homeowner does not buy based on calculations like piggs would. He buys because the wife wants a house. They look at current payments vs. expected new payments. That’s all they care about. The lower the downpayment, the better. If they think they can make an easy $30,000 in equity they’ll take risks.

That’s why its a problematic assertion around here that if you wait long enough, your dream house at your dream price/per sq ft. will fall into your lap. It rests entirely on the presumption that thousands of non-piggs like your example from above (that could care less about all the charts and trending) do not exist in the world and won’t snag your dream house out from under you before it hits yours dream price.

[Anonymous]

Joe Homeowner does not buy based on calculations like piggs would. He buys because the wife wants a house. They look at current payments vs. expected new payments. That’s all they care about. The lower the downpayment, the better. If they think they can make an easy $30,000 in equity they’ll take risks.

That’s why its a problematic assertion around here that if you wait long enough, your dream house at your dream price/per sq ft. will fall into your lap. It rests entirely on the presumption that thousands of non-piggs like your example from above (that could care less about all the charts and trending) do not exist in the world and won’t snag your dream house out from under you before it hits yours dream price.

[patientlywaiting]

First off, thanks Bugs for sharing your industry insights.

I agree with Bugs but I take except to what sdrealtor wrote.

Now is not the time to look for the gem.

The low end will continue to drop and prices declines will start to infect the higher end all the way up. The contagion will take down even the best neighborhoods.

Wait two more years and there’ll be plenty of selection.

Joe Homeowner does not buy based on calculations like piggs would. He buys because the wife wants a house. They look at current payments vs. expected new payments. That’s all they care about. The lower the downpayment, the better. If they think they can make an easy $30,000 in equity they’ll take risks.

Since prices are set at the margins, the new entrants are the people we need to be concerned about.

[patientlywaiting]

First off, thanks Bugs for sharing your industry insights.

I agree with Bugs but I take except to what sdrealtor wrote.

Now is not the time to look for the gem.

The low end will continue to drop and prices declines will start to infect the higher end all the way up. The contagion will take down even the best neighborhoods.

Wait two more years and there’ll be plenty of selection.

Joe Homeowner does not buy based on calculations like piggs would. He buys because the wife wants a house. They look at current payments vs. expected new payments. That’s all they care about. The lower the downpayment, the better. If they think they can make an easy $30,000 in equity they’ll take risks.

Since prices are set at the margins, the new entrants are the people we need to be concerned about.

[patientlywaiting]

First off, thanks Bugs for sharing your industry insights.

I agree with Bugs but I take except to what sdrealtor wrote.

Now is not the time to look for the gem.

The low end will continue to drop and prices declines will start to infect the higher end all the way up. The contagion will take down even the best neighborhoods.

Wait two more years and there’ll be plenty of selection.

Joe Homeowner does not buy based on calculations like piggs would. He buys because the wife wants a house. They look at current payments vs. expected new payments. That’s all they care about. The lower the downpayment, the better. If they think they can make an easy $30,000 in equity they’ll take risks.

Since prices are set at the margins, the new entrants are the people we need to be concerned about.

[patientlywaiting]

First off, thanks Bugs for sharing your industry insights.

I agree with Bugs but I take except to what sdrealtor wrote.

Now is not the time to look for the gem.

The low end will continue to drop and prices declines will start to infect the higher end all the way up. The contagion will take down even the best neighborhoods.

Wait two more years and there’ll be plenty of selection.

Joe Homeowner does not buy based on calculations like piggs would. He buys because the wife wants a house. They look at current payments vs. expected new payments. That’s all they care about. The lower the downpayment, the better. If they think they can make an easy $30,000 in equity they’ll take risks.

Since prices are set at the margins, the new entrants are the people we need to be concerned about.

[sdrealtor]

I tend to to agree with you Bugs one this one (though I dont always agree with you on everything). I think that the lower end is rapidly declining and will reach a level within the next year where there isnt much in the way of a meaningful decline left. I was trying to get to this point a week ago on one of the threads behind an article by Rich last week. At that point the key from a buyer perspective will be to find the one gem out there. There will be tons of crap out there and finding the one gem out there will be worth the risk of overpaying slightly IMO. When everyone acknowledges we have hit bottom and he have started heading up competition for that one gem will be much keener.

[sdrealtor]

I tend to to agree with you Bugs one this one (though I dont always agree with you on everything). I think that the lower end is rapidly declining and will reach a level within the next year where there isnt much in the way of a meaningful decline left. I was trying to get to this point a week ago on one of the threads behind an article by Rich last week. At that point the key from a buyer perspective will be to find the one gem out there. There will be tons of crap out there and finding the one gem out there will be worth the risk of overpaying slightly IMO. When everyone acknowledges we have hit bottom and he have started heading up competition for that one gem will be much keener.

[sdrealtor]

I tend to to agree with you Bugs one this one (though I dont always agree with you on everything). I think that the lower end is rapidly declining and will reach a level within the next year where there isnt much in the way of a meaningful decline left. I was trying to get to this point a week ago on one of the threads behind an article by Rich last week. At that point the key from a buyer perspective will be to find the one gem out there. There will be tons of crap out there and finding the one gem out there will be worth the risk of overpaying slightly IMO. When everyone acknowledges we have hit bottom and he have started heading up competition for that one gem will be much keener.

[sdrealtor]

I tend to to agree with you Bugs one this one (though I dont always agree with you on everything). I think that the lower end is rapidly declining and will reach a level within the next year where there isnt much in the way of a meaningful decline left. I was trying to get to this point a week ago on one of the threads behind an article by Rich last week. At that point the key from a buyer perspective will be to find the one gem out there. There will be tons of crap out there and finding the one gem out there will be worth the risk of overpaying slightly IMO. When everyone acknowledges we have hit bottom and he have started heading up competition for that one gem will be much keener.

[DWCAP]

I just have one observation for bugs on this post. Everyone here talks about house prices going down, and how over valued they were/are, and uses current rents as a multiplier to identify a current “market driven” price that excludes all the bubble mania. My point repeatedly (sorry, I know I harp on it too much) is that rents have risen faster than incomes and normal fundmentals too. Just not nearly as much as housing has.
So in my opnion the 1998 rents need to also be included in the picture and worked into the equation. The basement price wont be based on todays rents, but on past rents+ fundamental growth(population/income changes). In my unknowing mind, take between 5-10% off current rents and you have something more telling. 5% off 1000 is only $50, and wont mean a thing in the long run. But 10% off a $2500/month rent in SFR’s is $250 bucks and that will change bottom pricing. If peoples rents are not going up, or are going down, people will be less inclined to buy than if rents were still going up.

Rents move in real time and are even more based on preception than house prices. They are also more impacted by population changes than purchase prices are. In the last bust people fled Socal, reducing demand and consequently price. I personally know 5 people who have left the socal area for other states in the last 6 months, 3 of which was for the reason of being fired, 1 because she got married, and 1 because they graduated college and moved home to Boston. All 5 were college educated and in their mid to late 20’s with great jobs or futures. All left because oppertunities were greater elsewhere. These are your future entrants to the housing market, not permarenters like HS dropouts without a clue will be. Without them rents and entry level house demand gets killed. That will affect the higher priced houses every pig seems to be thinking about.
BTW, I personally have not met anyone new to the area in a while.

[patientlywaiting]

DWCAP, I agree with you. Thanks for a good post. I believe that we will see rents trending down in the fall. They are already stagnant and moving down in the downtown market.

[Eugene]

I’ve been looking at one particular house in San Marcos recently. It’s not bottom end by any means. It’s a nice big 5br house in a good community, 10 min drive from the 5. The catch is that it’s a REO fixer-upper. In my unprofessional opinion, it needs maybe 30k in repairs. And it has a peculiar dark-blue carpet that most potential buyers would want to replace with a “happier” color.

It’s been listed for 580k since September, to no avail. They’ve lowered the price to 535k a week ago. I don’t think it’s going to move at that price, either.

By my calculations, if I could get them to accept a low-ball offer of 450k (which does not seem to be out of the realm of possibility), I’d end up living in it for $2000/month (PITI less mortgage deduction) It’s impossible to rent a 5br 2700 sf house for $2000/month in San Diego.

Once all the sellers in that neighborhood come to terms with the new reality, I don’t think that prices could fall much further. (Unless there is a spike in unemployment or mortgage rates)

The best way to describe the situation (IMHO) is that there’s a “fortress” (Carlsbad to Coronado, 56 corridor to Scripps Ranch) and there’s everything else. Outside the fortress, there’s pain, there are subprime mortgages, there are ARM resets, and there are foreclosures. Inside the fortress, there’s no pain yet, but there is a lot of overbuilding, a lot of $1 mil tract houses on postage stamp lots, and a lot of ticking option ARMs. Most of the county could (optimistically) stabilize by 2009. The fortress will slowly shake down and deflate long after that.

[Eugene]

I’ve been looking at one particular house in San Marcos recently. It’s not bottom end by any means. It’s a nice big 5br house in a good community, 10 min drive from the 5. The catch is that it’s a REO fixer-upper. In my unprofessional opinion, it needs maybe 30k in repairs. And it has a peculiar dark-blue carpet that most potential buyers would want to replace with a “happier” color.

It’s been listed for 580k since September, to no avail. They’ve lowered the price to 535k a week ago. I don’t think it’s going to move at that price, either.

By my calculations, if I could get them to accept a low-ball offer of 450k (which does not seem to be out of the realm of possibility), I’d end up living in it for $2000/month (PITI less mortgage deduction) It’s impossible to rent a 5br 2700 sf house for $2000/month in San Diego.

Once all the sellers in that neighborhood come to terms with the new reality, I don’t think that prices could fall much further. (Unless there is a spike in unemployment or mortgage rates)

The best way to describe the situation (IMHO) is that there’s a “fortress” (Carlsbad to Coronado, 56 corridor to Scripps Ranch) and there’s everything else. Outside the fortress, there’s pain, there are subprime mortgages, there are ARM resets, and there are foreclosures. Inside the fortress, there’s no pain yet, but there is a lot of overbuilding, a lot of $1 mil tract houses on postage stamp lots, and a lot of ticking option ARMs. Most of the county could (optimistically) stabilize by 2009. The fortress will slowly shake down and deflate long after that.

[Eugene]

I’ve been looking at one particular house in San Marcos recently. It’s not bottom end by any means. It’s a nice big 5br house in a good community, 10 min drive from the 5. The catch is that it’s a REO fixer-upper. In my unprofessional opinion, it needs maybe 30k in repairs. And it has a peculiar dark-blue carpet that most potential buyers would want to replace with a “happier” color.

It’s been listed for 580k since September, to no avail. They’ve lowered the price to 535k a week ago. I don’t think it’s going to move at that price, either.

By my calculations, if I could get them to accept a low-ball offer of 450k (which does not seem to be out of the realm of possibility), I’d end up living in it for $2000/month (PITI less mortgage deduction) It’s impossible to rent a 5br 2700 sf house for $2000/month in San Diego.

Once all the sellers in that neighborhood come to terms with the new reality, I don’t think that prices could fall much further. (Unless there is a spike in unemployment or mortgage rates)

The best way to describe the situation (IMHO) is that there’s a “fortress” (Carlsbad to Coronado, 56 corridor to Scripps Ranch) and there’s everything else. Outside the fortress, there’s pain, there are subprime mortgages, there are ARM resets, and there are foreclosures. Inside the fortress, there’s no pain yet, but there is a lot of overbuilding, a lot of $1 mil tract houses on postage stamp lots, and a lot of ticking option ARMs. Most of the county could (optimistically) stabilize by 2009. The fortress will slowly shake down and deflate long after that.

[Eugene]

I’ve been looking at one particular house in San Marcos recently. It’s not bottom end by any means. It’s a nice big 5br house in a good community, 10 min drive from the 5. The catch is that it’s a REO fixer-upper. In my unprofessional opinion, it needs maybe 30k in repairs. And it has a peculiar dark-blue carpet that most potential buyers would want to replace with a “happier” color.

It’s been listed for 580k since September, to no avail. They’ve lowered the price to 535k a week ago. I don’t think it’s going to move at that price, either.

By my calculations, if I could get them to accept a low-ball offer of 450k (which does not seem to be out of the realm of possibility), I’d end up living in it for $2000/month (PITI less mortgage deduction) It’s impossible to rent a 5br 2700 sf house for $2000/month in San Diego.

Once all the sellers in that neighborhood come to terms with the new reality, I don’t think that prices could fall much further. (Unless there is a spike in unemployment or mortgage rates)

The best way to describe the situation (IMHO) is that there’s a “fortress” (Carlsbad to Coronado, 56 corridor to Scripps Ranch) and there’s everything else. Outside the fortress, there’s pain, there are subprime mortgages, there are ARM resets, and there are foreclosures. Inside the fortress, there’s no pain yet, but there is a lot of overbuilding, a lot of $1 mil tract houses on postage stamp lots, and a lot of ticking option ARMs. Most of the county could (optimistically) stabilize by 2009. The fortress will slowly shake down and deflate long after that.

[Eugene]

I’ve been looking at one particular house in San Marcos recently. It’s not bottom end by any means. It’s a nice big 5br house in a good community, 10 min drive from the 5. The catch is that it’s a REO fixer-upper. In my unprofessional opinion, it needs maybe 30k in repairs. And it has a peculiar dark-blue carpet that most potential buyers would want to replace with a “happier” color.

It’s been listed for 580k since September, to no avail. They’ve lowered the price to 535k a week ago. I don’t think it’s going to move at that price, either.

By my calculations, if I could get them to accept a low-ball offer of 450k (which does not seem to be out of the realm of possibility), I’d end up living in it for $2000/month (PITI less mortgage deduction) It’s impossible to rent a 5br 2700 sf house for $2000/month in San Diego.

Once all the sellers in that neighborhood come to terms with the new reality, I don’t think that prices could fall much further. (Unless there is a spike in unemployment or mortgage rates)

The best way to describe the situation (IMHO) is that there’s a “fortress” (Carlsbad to Coronado, 56 corridor to Scripps Ranch) and there’s everything else. Outside the fortress, there’s pain, there are subprime mortgages, there are ARM resets, and there are foreclosures. Inside the fortress, there’s no pain yet, but there is a lot of overbuilding, a lot of $1 mil tract houses on postage stamp lots, and a lot of ticking option ARMs. Most of the county could (optimistically) stabilize by 2009. The fortress will slowly shake down and deflate long after that.

[patientlywaiting]

DWCAP, I agree with you. Thanks for a good post. I believe that we will see rents trending down in the fall. They are already stagnant and moving down in the downtown market.

[patientlywaiting]

DWCAP, I agree with you. Thanks for a good post. I believe that we will see rents trending down in the fall. They are already stagnant and moving down in the downtown market.

[patientlywaiting]

DWCAP, I agree with you. Thanks for a good post. I believe that we will see rents trending down in the fall. They are already stagnant and moving down in the downtown market.

[patientlywaiting]

DWCAP, I agree with you. Thanks for a good post. I believe that we will see rents trending down in the fall. They are already stagnant and moving down in the downtown market.

[DWCAP]

I just have one observation for bugs on this post. Everyone here talks about house prices going down, and how over valued they were/are, and uses current rents as a multiplier to identify a current “market driven” price that excludes all the bubble mania. My point repeatedly (sorry, I know I harp on it too much) is that rents have risen faster than incomes and normal fundmentals too. Just not nearly as much as housing has.
So in my opnion the 1998 rents need to also be included in the picture and worked into the equation. The basement price wont be based on todays rents, but on past rents+ fundamental growth(population/income changes). In my unknowing mind, take between 5-10% off current rents and you have something more telling. 5% off 1000 is only $50, and wont mean a thing in the long run. But 10% off a $2500/month rent in SFR’s is $250 bucks and that will change bottom pricing. If peoples rents are not going up, or are going down, people will be less inclined to buy than if rents were still going up.

Rents move in real time and are even more based on preception than house prices. They are also more impacted by population changes than purchase prices are. In the last bust people fled Socal, reducing demand and consequently price. I personally know 5 people who have left the socal area for other states in the last 6 months, 3 of which was for the reason of being fired, 1 because she got married, and 1 because they graduated college and moved home to Boston. All 5 were college educated and in their mid to late 20’s with great jobs or futures. All left because oppertunities were greater elsewhere. These are your future entrants to the housing market, not permarenters like HS dropouts without a clue will be. Without them rents and entry level house demand gets killed. That will affect the higher priced houses every pig seems to be thinking about.
BTW, I personally have not met anyone new to the area in a while.

[DWCAP]

I just have one observation for bugs on this post. Everyone here talks about house prices going down, and how over valued they were/are, and uses current rents as a multiplier to identify a current “market driven” price that excludes all the bubble mania. My point repeatedly (sorry, I know I harp on it too much) is that rents have risen faster than incomes and normal fundmentals too. Just not nearly as much as housing has.
So in my opnion the 1998 rents need to also be included in the picture and worked into the equation. The basement price wont be based on todays rents, but on past rents+ fundamental growth(population/income changes). In my unknowing mind, take between 5-10% off current rents and you have something more telling. 5% off 1000 is only $50, and wont mean a thing in the long run. But 10% off a $2500/month rent in SFR’s is $250 bucks and that will change bottom pricing. If peoples rents are not going up, or are going down, people will be less inclined to buy than if rents were still going up.

Rents move in real time and are even more based on preception than house prices. They are also more impacted by population changes than purchase prices are. In the last bust people fled Socal, reducing demand and consequently price. I personally know 5 people who have left the socal area for other states in the last 6 months, 3 of which was for the reason of being fired, 1 because she got married, and 1 because they graduated college and moved home to Boston. All 5 were college educated and in their mid to late 20’s with great jobs or futures. All left because oppertunities were greater elsewhere. These are your future entrants to the housing market, not permarenters like HS dropouts without a clue will be. Without them rents and entry level house demand gets killed. That will affect the higher priced houses every pig seems to be thinking about.
BTW, I personally have not met anyone new to the area in a while.

[DWCAP]

I just have one observation for bugs on this post. Everyone here talks about house prices going down, and how over valued they were/are, and uses current rents as a multiplier to identify a current “market driven” price that excludes all the bubble mania. My point repeatedly (sorry, I know I harp on it too much) is that rents have risen faster than incomes and normal fundmentals too. Just not nearly as much as housing has.
So in my opnion the 1998 rents need to also be included in the picture and worked into the equation. The basement price wont be based on todays rents, but on past rents+ fundamental growth(population/income changes). In my unknowing mind, take between 5-10% off current rents and you have something more telling. 5% off 1000 is only $50, and wont mean a thing in the long run. But 10% off a $2500/month rent in SFR’s is $250 bucks and that will change bottom pricing. If peoples rents are not going up, or are going down, people will be less inclined to buy than if rents were still going up.

Rents move in real time and are even more based on preception than house prices. They are also more impacted by population changes than purchase prices are. In the last bust people fled Socal, reducing demand and consequently price. I personally know 5 people who have left the socal area for other states in the last 6 months, 3 of which was for the reason of being fired, 1 because she got married, and 1 because they graduated college and moved home to Boston. All 5 were college educated and in their mid to late 20’s with great jobs or futures. All left because oppertunities were greater elsewhere. These are your future entrants to the housing market, not permarenters like HS dropouts without a clue will be. Without them rents and entry level house demand gets killed. That will affect the higher priced houses every pig seems to be thinking about.
BTW, I personally have not met anyone new to the area in a while.

[DWCAP]

I just have one observation for bugs on this post. Everyone here talks about house prices going down, and how over valued they were/are, and uses current rents as a multiplier to identify a current “market driven” price that excludes all the bubble mania. My point repeatedly (sorry, I know I harp on it too much) is that rents have risen faster than incomes and normal fundmentals too. Just not nearly as much as housing has.
So in my opnion the 1998 rents need to also be included in the picture and worked into the equation. The basement price wont be based on todays rents, but on past rents+ fundamental growth(population/income changes). In my unknowing mind, take between 5-10% off current rents and you have something more telling. 5% off 1000 is only $50, and wont mean a thing in the long run. But 10% off a $2500/month rent in SFR’s is $250 bucks and that will change bottom pricing. If peoples rents are not going up, or are going down, people will be less inclined to buy than if rents were still going up.

Rents move in real time and are even more based on preception than house prices. They are also more impacted by population changes than purchase prices are. In the last bust people fled Socal, reducing demand and consequently price. I personally know 5 people who have left the socal area for other states in the last 6 months, 3 of which was for the reason of being fired, 1 because she got married, and 1 because they graduated college and moved home to Boston. All 5 were college educated and in their mid to late 20’s with great jobs or futures. All left because oppertunities were greater elsewhere. These are your future entrants to the housing market, not permarenters like HS dropouts without a clue will be. Without them rents and entry level house demand gets killed. That will affect the higher priced houses every pig seems to be thinking about.
BTW, I personally have not met anyone new to the area in a while.

[jpinpb]

patiently – I think you are right. There is more optimism out there than I anticipated. I’ve seen some places for sale w/price increases. Defiant almost.

I was at the dentist waiting, flipping through a Times magazine. Don’t remember what issue, somewhat recent. Toward the end, a bullish article titled something like “Ignore the headlines,” touting buy when there’s blood in the streets – now.

Bugs – I’m a little confused. Talk about catching falling knives and dead cat bounce. If prices are expected to continue to decline, then it’s best to wait. Some properties may look like deals now at 15 to 20% discount. But if there is anticipated inventory on the way by year’s end, would it be too unrealistic to see another 10% chop?

Seems the lower end places will have more people interested, but wouldn’t it be true at most price ranges. The people interested in lower priced homes will be scramble to get something they can afford, as the median is trying to get a deal on the median and the higher priced homes will attract many higher income people looking for a deal on higher priced homes.

FWIW – I haven’t met anyone new to the area – living here, there is. Plenty of tourists. My engaged cousin 20 something just got a job offer in O.C. One less renter or potential entry level homebuyer in S.D.

[jpinpb]

patiently – I think you are right. There is more optimism out there than I anticipated. I’ve seen some places for sale w/price increases. Defiant almost.

I was at the dentist waiting, flipping through a Times magazine. Don’t remember what issue, somewhat recent. Toward the end, a bullish article titled something like “Ignore the headlines,” touting buy when there’s blood in the streets – now.

Bugs – I’m a little confused. Talk about catching falling knives and dead cat bounce. If prices are expected to continue to decline, then it’s best to wait. Some properties may look like deals now at 15 to 20% discount. But if there is anticipated inventory on the way by year’s end, would it be too unrealistic to see another 10% chop?

Seems the lower end places will have more people interested, but wouldn’t it be true at most price ranges. The people interested in lower priced homes will be scramble to get something they can afford, as the median is trying to get a deal on the median and the higher priced homes will attract many higher income people looking for a deal on higher priced homes.

FWIW – I haven’t met anyone new to the area – living here, there is. Plenty of tourists. My engaged cousin 20 something just got a job offer in O.C. One less renter or potential entry level homebuyer in S.D.

[jpinpb]

patiently – I think you are right. There is more optimism out there than I anticipated. I’ve seen some places for sale w/price increases. Defiant almost.

I was at the dentist waiting, flipping through a Times magazine. Don’t remember what issue, somewhat recent. Toward the end, a bullish article titled something like “Ignore the headlines,” touting buy when there’s blood in the streets – now.

Bugs – I’m a little confused. Talk about catching falling knives and dead cat bounce. If prices are expected to continue to decline, then it’s best to wait. Some properties may look like deals now at 15 to 20% discount. But if there is anticipated inventory on the way by year’s end, would it be too unrealistic to see another 10% chop?

Seems the lower end places will have more people interested, but wouldn’t it be true at most price ranges. The people interested in lower priced homes will be scramble to get something they can afford, as the median is trying to get a deal on the median and the higher priced homes will attract many higher income people looking for a deal on higher priced homes.

FWIW – I haven’t met anyone new to the area – living here, there is. Plenty of tourists. My engaged cousin 20 something just got a job offer in O.C. One less renter or potential entry level homebuyer in S.D.

[jpinpb]

patiently – I think you are right. There is more optimism out there than I anticipated. I’ve seen some places for sale w/price increases. Defiant almost.

I was at the dentist waiting, flipping through a Times magazine. Don’t remember what issue, somewhat recent. Toward the end, a bullish article titled something like “Ignore the headlines,” touting buy when there’s blood in the streets – now.

Bugs – I’m a little confused. Talk about catching falling knives and dead cat bounce. If prices are expected to continue to decline, then it’s best to wait. Some properties may look like deals now at 15 to 20% discount. But if there is anticipated inventory on the way by year’s end, would it be too unrealistic to see another 10% chop?

Seems the lower end places will have more people interested, but wouldn’t it be true at most price ranges. The people interested in lower priced homes will be scramble to get something they can afford, as the median is trying to get a deal on the median and the higher priced homes will attract many higher income people looking for a deal on higher priced homes.

FWIW – I haven’t met anyone new to the area – living here, there is. Plenty of tourists. My engaged cousin 20 something just got a job offer in O.C. One less renter or potential entry level homebuyer in S.D.

[jpinpb]

patiently – I think you are right. There is more optimism out there than I anticipated. I’ve seen some places for sale w/price increases. Defiant almost.

I was at the dentist waiting, flipping through a Times magazine. Don’t remember what issue, somewhat recent. Toward the end, a bullish article titled something like “Ignore the headlines,” touting buy when there’s blood in the streets – now.

Bugs – I’m a little confused. Talk about catching falling knives and dead cat bounce. If prices are expected to continue to decline, then it’s best to wait. Some properties may look like deals now at 15 to 20% discount. But if there is anticipated inventory on the way by year’s end, would it be too unrealistic to see another 10% chop?

Seems the lower end places will have more people interested, but wouldn’t it be true at most price ranges. The people interested in lower priced homes will be scramble to get something they can afford, as the median is trying to get a deal on the median and the higher priced homes will attract many higher income people looking for a deal on higher priced homes.

FWIW – I haven’t met anyone new to the area – living here, there is. Plenty of tourists. My engaged cousin 20 something just got a job offer in O.C. One less renter or potential entry level homebuyer in S.D.

[DWCAP]

“Lots of people I know, including myself, are waiting in the wings, with lots of cash, ready to pounce on properties when the time is right–so there will be competition for the “gems.”

You’d be surprised how many people in San Diego think like “Piggs,” and are ready and waiting to make the most of the downturn.” – SD native

This is exactly why the argument that “the time to buy is when no one else wants to buy, so now must be the time to buy since sedement is so bad right now” is bullplucky. The mentality of profit has switched from “buy now”, to “buy soon when the market bottoms”, to get rich. Same mentality, different timeline. The real time to buy if you use this train of thought (I think baseing my actions on what other people are saying is retarded) is when people ask “why buy”. We are many years of poor to negative returns away from that.

[DWCAP]

“Lots of people I know, including myself, are waiting in the wings, with lots of cash, ready to pounce on properties when the time is right–so there will be competition for the “gems.”

You’d be surprised how many people in San Diego think like “Piggs,” and are ready and waiting to make the most of the downturn.” – SD native

This is exactly why the argument that “the time to buy is when no one else wants to buy, so now must be the time to buy since sedement is so bad right now” is bullplucky. The mentality of profit has switched from “buy now”, to “buy soon when the market bottoms”, to get rich. Same mentality, different timeline. The real time to buy if you use this train of thought (I think baseing my actions on what other people are saying is retarded) is when people ask “why buy”. We are many years of poor to negative returns away from that.

[DWCAP]

“Lots of people I know, including myself, are waiting in the wings, with lots of cash, ready to pounce on properties when the time is right–so there will be competition for the “gems.”

You’d be surprised how many people in San Diego think like “Piggs,” and are ready and waiting to make the most of the downturn.” – SD native

This is exactly why the argument that “the time to buy is when no one else wants to buy, so now must be the time to buy since sedement is so bad right now” is bullplucky. The mentality of profit has switched from “buy now”, to “buy soon when the market bottoms”, to get rich. Same mentality, different timeline. The real time to buy if you use this train of thought (I think baseing my actions on what other people are saying is retarded) is when people ask “why buy”. We are many years of poor to negative returns away from that.

[DWCAP]

“Lots of people I know, including myself, are waiting in the wings, with lots of cash, ready to pounce on properties when the time is right–so there will be competition for the “gems.”

You’d be surprised how many people in San Diego think like “Piggs,” and are ready and waiting to make the most of the downturn.” – SD native

This is exactly why the argument that “the time to buy is when no one else wants to buy, so now must be the time to buy since sedement is so bad right now” is bullplucky. The mentality of profit has switched from “buy now”, to “buy soon when the market bottoms”, to get rich. Same mentality, different timeline. The real time to buy if you use this train of thought (I think baseing my actions on what other people are saying is retarded) is when people ask “why buy”. We are many years of poor to negative returns away from that.

[DWCAP]

“Lots of people I know, including myself, are waiting in the wings, with lots of cash, ready to pounce on properties when the time is right–so there will be competition for the “gems.”

You’d be surprised how many people in San Diego think like “Piggs,” and are ready and waiting to make the most of the downturn.” – SD native

This is exactly why the argument that “the time to buy is when no one else wants to buy, so now must be the time to buy since sedement is so bad right now” is bullplucky. The mentality of profit has switched from “buy now”, to “buy soon when the market bottoms”, to get rich. Same mentality, different timeline. The real time to buy if you use this train of thought (I think baseing my actions on what other people are saying is retarded) is when people ask “why buy”. We are many years of poor to negative returns away from that.

[4plexowner]

excellent post, Bugs

I agree with you that, in general, prices are not likely to drop to 1998 levels – people looking for a place to live in (assuming that there are loans available and they qualify) are going to buy at a higher price than investors will – the unknown for me in the rent vs buy equation is where rents are headed – I expect nominal rents to decline so I couldn’t make a purchase today based on current rents

In a sensible market (let’s equate ‘sensible’ with 2001 prices for this discussion), an investor makes their money by being more knowledgeable than his competition – being able to spot a property that has upside potential or has been mis-priced becomes key – this knowledge is how the smart shopper will find the 1998 values even if prices are at 2001 levels – also, the investor has to spot these properties quickly and move on them before other buyers do (of the properties I purchased, I was usually the first offer on the first day of the new listing and my offers were full price or better)

As you point out, it is important to become familiar with the areas of town that you are interested in – that is how you will learn to recognize a good property when it comes along – having this knowledge will save you time when you are looking at MLS listings – in my areas of interest for rental property, for example, I know which streets are narrow and have cars lining both sides (which gives the whole block a very cramped feeling and indicates that parking is an issue) – when I see a listing on one of those streets I don’t have to waste my time driving by it and I don’t get all excited thinking, “this is the one!”, only to be disappointed by reality – at one point I even made a list of specific street addresses that I was interested in if they ever became available (engineers are weird!) – knowledge you might want to have for your area of interest: where are the parks / schools / bus stops, traffic / noise issues, future development or re-development plans, etc

~

Is the lower end of the market coming to a buy point? That is one tough question to answer – there are so many variables involved and lots of unknowns – because of the unknowns risk is high – as an investor buying rental property I can sit on the fence when risk is high and not try to differentiate market segments – someone who needs to put a roof over their family’s head has a different perspective on making a purchase decision

If I were drinking a beer with the potential low-end house buyer and they asked me about buying a house in 2008 I would probably encourage them to rent unless they found their own personal Shangri-la at a price that was well within their means

[patientlywaiting]

good post, 4plex.. you wrote what I was thinking.

I agree that in a “sensible” market, local knowledge is key. That’s when a Realtor with years of local experience is most valuable (if you don’t know the market yourself).

[patientlywaiting]

For those of you looking for a primo property, here’s one featured on OCrenter’s blog. Except for the location, it’s not bad.

And the owner provided fraud management software! I guess his vaporware didn’t not work at all!!
——–

http://bubbletracking.blogspot.com/2008/02/half-million-loss-and-still-no-sale.html

And while the homeowner is not a realtor, he was the CIO of a company that provided mortgage fraud management solutions to lenders and brokers. He is also currently the CEO of a company that specialize in electronic mortgage document preparation and loan servicing.

But despite that insider track, a MBA degree, education at Harvard and Oxford School of Business, and 20 plus years of senior executive leadership experience, our homeowner here still managed to buy at the peak and chase the market down.

[Eugene]

Might be a good choice if you’re a CIO. If market turns sufficiently bad, it might fall within reach of a neurosurgeon.

For the rest of us who are neither CIOS nor neurosurgeons, here is a couple of possible primo properties (I’m considering buying in that neighborhood eventually if my stock options turn around):

http://www.sdlookup.com/MLS-086011587-4150_Vista_Bonita_Ln_Escondido_CA_92025
http://www.sdlookup.com/MLS-076096696-3026_Don_Rolando_Rd_Escondido_CA_92025

All that for the price of a 3br condo in Carmel Valley.

[Eugene]

Might be a good choice if you’re a CIO. If market turns sufficiently bad, it might fall within reach of a neurosurgeon.

For the rest of us who are neither CIOS nor neurosurgeons, here is a couple of possible primo properties (I’m considering buying in that neighborhood eventually if my stock options turn around):

http://www.sdlookup.com/MLS-086011587-4150_Vista_Bonita_Ln_Escondido_CA_92025
http://www.sdlookup.com/MLS-076096696-3026_Don_Rolando_Rd_Escondido_CA_92025

All that for the price of a 3br condo in Carmel Valley.

[Eugene]

Might be a good choice if you’re a CIO. If market turns sufficiently bad, it might fall within reach of a neurosurgeon.

For the rest of us who are neither CIOS nor neurosurgeons, here is a couple of possible primo properties (I’m considering buying in that neighborhood eventually if my stock options turn around):

http://www.sdlookup.com/MLS-086011587-4150_Vista_Bonita_Ln_Escondido_CA_92025
http://www.sdlookup.com/MLS-076096696-3026_Don_Rolando_Rd_Escondido_CA_92025

All that for the price of a 3br condo in Carmel Valley.

[Eugene]

Might be a good choice if you’re a CIO. If market turns sufficiently bad, it might fall within reach of a neurosurgeon.

For the rest of us who are neither CIOS nor neurosurgeons, here is a couple of possible primo properties (I’m considering buying in that neighborhood eventually if my stock options turn around):

http://www.sdlookup.com/MLS-086011587-4150_Vista_Bonita_Ln_Escondido_CA_92025
http://www.sdlookup.com/MLS-076096696-3026_Don_Rolando_Rd_Escondido_CA_92025

All that for the price of a 3br condo in Carmel Valley.

[Eugene]

Might be a good choice if you’re a CIO. If market turns sufficiently bad, it might fall within reach of a neurosurgeon.

For the rest of us who are neither CIOS nor neurosurgeons, here is a couple of possible primo properties (I’m considering buying in that neighborhood eventually if my stock options turn around):

http://www.sdlookup.com/MLS-086011587-4150_Vista_Bonita_Ln_Escondido_CA_92025
http://www.sdlookup.com/MLS-076096696-3026_Don_Rolando_Rd_Escondido_CA_92025

All that for the price of a 3br condo in Carmel Valley.

[sdrealtor]

PW,
You are missing the point any property that price will look great to most but is it a great property for the price range and the general area. maybe, maybe not.

The right 1BR condo in Chulajuana roperty could be a primo property for someone looking in that area in that price range. Its all relative.

[sdrealtor]

PW,
You are missing the point any property that price will look great to most but is it a great property for the price range and the general area. maybe, maybe not.

The right 1BR condo in Chulajuana roperty could be a primo property for someone looking in that area in that price range. Its all relative.

[sdrealtor]

PW,
You are missing the point any property that price will look great to most but is it a great property for the price range and the general area. maybe, maybe not.

The right 1BR condo in Chulajuana roperty could be a primo property for someone looking in that area in that price range. Its all relative.

[sdrealtor]

PW,
You are missing the point any property that price will look great to most but is it a great property for the price range and the general area. maybe, maybe not.

The right 1BR condo in Chulajuana roperty could be a primo property for someone looking in that area in that price range. Its all relative.

[sdrealtor]

PW,
You are missing the point any property that price will look great to most but is it a great property for the price range and the general area. maybe, maybe not.

The right 1BR condo in Chulajuana roperty could be a primo property for someone looking in that area in that price range. Its all relative.

[djc]

Thursday, February 21, 2008
Half a Million Loss and Still No Sale?
A lawsuit has been threatened against this blog by the owner of this property currently with NOD filed. Comments are disabled and the post removed.

[djc]

Thursday, February 21, 2008
Half a Million Loss and Still No Sale?
A lawsuit has been threatened against this blog by the owner of this property currently with NOD filed. Comments are disabled and the post removed.

[djc]

Thursday, February 21, 2008
Half a Million Loss and Still No Sale?
A lawsuit has been threatened against this blog by the owner of this property currently with NOD filed. Comments are disabled and the post removed.

[djc]

Thursday, February 21, 2008
Half a Million Loss and Still No Sale?
A lawsuit has been threatened against this blog by the owner of this property currently with NOD filed. Comments are disabled and the post removed.

[djc]

Thursday, February 21, 2008
Half a Million Loss and Still No Sale?
A lawsuit has been threatened against this blog by the owner of this property currently with NOD filed. Comments are disabled and the post removed.

[patientlywaiting]

For those of you looking for a primo property, here’s one featured on OCrenter’s blog. Except for the location, it’s not bad.

And the owner provided fraud management software! I guess his vaporware didn’t not work at all!!
——–

http://bubbletracking.blogspot.com/2008/02/half-million-loss-and-still-no-sale.html

And while the homeowner is not a realtor, he was the CIO of a company that provided mortgage fraud management solutions to lenders and brokers. He is also currently the CEO of a company that specialize in electronic mortgage document preparation and loan servicing.

But despite that insider track, a MBA degree, education at Harvard and Oxford School of Business, and 20 plus years of senior executive leadership experience, our homeowner here still managed to buy at the peak and chase the market down.

[patientlywaiting]

For those of you looking for a primo property, here’s one featured on OCrenter’s blog. Except for the location, it’s not bad.

And the owner provided fraud management software! I guess his vaporware didn’t not work at all!!
——–

http://bubbletracking.blogspot.com/2008/02/half-million-loss-and-still-no-sale.html

And while the homeowner is not a realtor, he was the CIO of a company that provided mortgage fraud management solutions to lenders and brokers. He is also currently the CEO of a company that specialize in electronic mortgage document preparation and loan servicing.

But despite that insider track, a MBA degree, education at Harvard and Oxford School of Business, and 20 plus years of senior executive leadership experience, our homeowner here still managed to buy at the peak and chase the market down.

[patientlywaiting]

For those of you looking for a primo property, here’s one featured on OCrenter’s blog. Except for the location, it’s not bad.

And the owner provided fraud management software! I guess his vaporware didn’t not work at all!!
——–

http://bubbletracking.blogspot.com/2008/02/half-million-loss-and-still-no-sale.html

And while the homeowner is not a realtor, he was the CIO of a company that provided mortgage fraud management solutions to lenders and brokers. He is also currently the CEO of a company that specialize in electronic mortgage document preparation and loan servicing.

But despite that insider track, a MBA degree, education at Harvard and Oxford School of Business, and 20 plus years of senior executive leadership experience, our homeowner here still managed to buy at the peak and chase the market down.

[patientlywaiting]

For those of you looking for a primo property, here’s one featured on OCrenter’s blog. Except for the location, it’s not bad.

And the owner provided fraud management software! I guess his vaporware didn’t not work at all!!
——–

http://bubbletracking.blogspot.com/2008/02/half-million-loss-and-still-no-sale.html

And while the homeowner is not a realtor, he was the CIO of a company that provided mortgage fraud management solutions to lenders and brokers. He is also currently the CEO of a company that specialize in electronic mortgage document preparation and loan servicing.

But despite that insider track, a MBA degree, education at Harvard and Oxford School of Business, and 20 plus years of senior executive leadership experience, our homeowner here still managed to buy at the peak and chase the market down.

[patientlywaiting]

good post, 4plex.. you wrote what I was thinking.

I agree that in a “sensible” market, local knowledge is key. That’s when a Realtor with years of local experience is most valuable (if you don’t know the market yourself).

[patientlywaiting]

good post, 4plex.. you wrote what I was thinking.

I agree that in a “sensible” market, local knowledge is key. That’s when a Realtor with years of local experience is most valuable (if you don’t know the market yourself).

[patientlywaiting]

good post, 4plex.. you wrote what I was thinking.

I agree that in a “sensible” market, local knowledge is key. That’s when a Realtor with years of local experience is most valuable (if you don’t know the market yourself).

[patientlywaiting]

good post, 4plex.. you wrote what I was thinking.

I agree that in a “sensible” market, local knowledge is key. That’s when a Realtor with years of local experience is most valuable (if you don’t know the market yourself).

[4plexowner]

excellent post, Bugs

I agree with you that, in general, prices are not likely to drop to 1998 levels – people looking for a place to live in (assuming that there are loans available and they qualify) are going to buy at a higher price than investors will – the unknown for me in the rent vs buy equation is where rents are headed – I expect nominal rents to decline so I couldn’t make a purchase today based on current rents

In a sensible market (let’s equate ‘sensible’ with 2001 prices for this discussion), an investor makes their money by being more knowledgeable than his competition – being able to spot a property that has upside potential or has been mis-priced becomes key – this knowledge is how the smart shopper will find the 1998 values even if prices are at 2001 levels – also, the investor has to spot these properties quickly and move on them before other buyers do (of the properties I purchased, I was usually the first offer on the first day of the new listing and my offers were full price or better)

As you point out, it is important to become familiar with the areas of town that you are interested in – that is how you will learn to recognize a good property when it comes along – having this knowledge will save you time when you are looking at MLS listings – in my areas of interest for rental property, for example, I know which streets are narrow and have cars lining both sides (which gives the whole block a very cramped feeling and indicates that parking is an issue) – when I see a listing on one of those streets I don’t have to waste my time driving by it and I don’t get all excited thinking, “this is the one!”, only to be disappointed by reality – at one point I even made a list of specific street addresses that I was interested in if they ever became available (engineers are weird!) – knowledge you might want to have for your area of interest: where are the parks / schools / bus stops, traffic / noise issues, future development or re-development plans, etc

~

Is the lower end of the market coming to a buy point? That is one tough question to answer – there are so many variables involved and lots of unknowns – because of the unknowns risk is high – as an investor buying rental property I can sit on the fence when risk is high and not try to differentiate market segments – someone who needs to put a roof over their family’s head has a different perspective on making a purchase decision

If I were drinking a beer with the potential low-end house buyer and they asked me about buying a house in 2008 I would probably encourage them to rent unless they found their own personal Shangri-la at a price that was well within their means

[4plexowner]

excellent post, Bugs

I agree with you that, in general, prices are not likely to drop to 1998 levels – people looking for a place to live in (assuming that there are loans available and they qualify) are going to buy at a higher price than investors will – the unknown for me in the rent vs buy equation is where rents are headed – I expect nominal rents to decline so I couldn’t make a purchase today based on current rents

In a sensible market (let’s equate ‘sensible’ with 2001 prices for this discussion), an investor makes their money by being more knowledgeable than his competition – being able to spot a property that has upside potential or has been mis-priced becomes key – this knowledge is how the smart shopper will find the 1998 values even if prices are at 2001 levels – also, the investor has to spot these properties quickly and move on them before other buyers do (of the properties I purchased, I was usually the first offer on the first day of the new listing and my offers were full price or better)

As you point out, it is important to become familiar with the areas of town that you are interested in – that is how you will learn to recognize a good property when it comes along – having this knowledge will save you time when you are looking at MLS listings – in my areas of interest for rental property, for example, I know which streets are narrow and have cars lining both sides (which gives the whole block a very cramped feeling and indicates that parking is an issue) – when I see a listing on one of those streets I don’t have to waste my time driving by it and I don’t get all excited thinking, “this is the one!”, only to be disappointed by reality – at one point I even made a list of specific street addresses that I was interested in if they ever became available (engineers are weird!) – knowledge you might want to have for your area of interest: where are the parks / schools / bus stops, traffic / noise issues, future development or re-development plans, etc

~

Is the lower end of the market coming to a buy point? That is one tough question to answer – there are so many variables involved and lots of unknowns – because of the unknowns risk is high – as an investor buying rental property I can sit on the fence when risk is high and not try to differentiate market segments – someone who needs to put a roof over their family’s head has a different perspective on making a purchase decision

If I were drinking a beer with the potential low-end house buyer and they asked me about buying a house in 2008 I would probably encourage them to rent unless they found their own personal Shangri-la at a price that was well within their means

[4plexowner]

excellent post, Bugs

I agree with you that, in general, prices are not likely to drop to 1998 levels – people looking for a place to live in (assuming that there are loans available and they qualify) are going to buy at a higher price than investors will – the unknown for me in the rent vs buy equation is where rents are headed – I expect nominal rents to decline so I couldn’t make a purchase today based on current rents

In a sensible market (let’s equate ‘sensible’ with 2001 prices for this discussion), an investor makes their money by being more knowledgeable than his competition – being able to spot a property that has upside potential or has been mis-priced becomes key – this knowledge is how the smart shopper will find the 1998 values even if prices are at 2001 levels – also, the investor has to spot these properties quickly and move on them before other buyers do (of the properties I purchased, I was usually the first offer on the first day of the new listing and my offers were full price or better)

As you point out, it is important to become familiar with the areas of town that you are interested in – that is how you will learn to recognize a good property when it comes along – having this knowledge will save you time when you are looking at MLS listings – in my areas of interest for rental property, for example, I know which streets are narrow and have cars lining both sides (which gives the whole block a very cramped feeling and indicates that parking is an issue) – when I see a listing on one of those streets I don’t have to waste my time driving by it and I don’t get all excited thinking, “this is the one!”, only to be disappointed by reality – at one point I even made a list of specific street addresses that I was interested in if they ever became available (engineers are weird!) – knowledge you might want to have for your area of interest: where are the parks / schools / bus stops, traffic / noise issues, future development or re-development plans, etc

~

Is the lower end of the market coming to a buy point? That is one tough question to answer – there are so many variables involved and lots of unknowns – because of the unknowns risk is high – as an investor buying rental property I can sit on the fence when risk is high and not try to differentiate market segments – someone who needs to put a roof over their family’s head has a different perspective on making a purchase decision

If I were drinking a beer with the potential low-end house buyer and they asked me about buying a house in 2008 I would probably encourage them to rent unless they found their own personal Shangri-la at a price that was well within their means

[4plexowner]

excellent post, Bugs

I agree with you that, in general, prices are not likely to drop to 1998 levels – people looking for a place to live in (assuming that there are loans available and they qualify) are going to buy at a higher price than investors will – the unknown for me in the rent vs buy equation is where rents are headed – I expect nominal rents to decline so I couldn’t make a purchase today based on current rents

In a sensible market (let’s equate ‘sensible’ with 2001 prices for this discussion), an investor makes their money by being more knowledgeable than his competition – being able to spot a property that has upside potential or has been mis-priced becomes key – this knowledge is how the smart shopper will find the 1998 values even if prices are at 2001 levels – also, the investor has to spot these properties quickly and move on them before other buyers do (of the properties I purchased, I was usually the first offer on the first day of the new listing and my offers were full price or better)

As you point out, it is important to become familiar with the areas of town that you are interested in – that is how you will learn to recognize a good property when it comes along – having this knowledge will save you time when you are looking at MLS listings – in my areas of interest for rental property, for example, I know which streets are narrow and have cars lining both sides (which gives the whole block a very cramped feeling and indicates that parking is an issue) – when I see a listing on one of those streets I don’t have to waste my time driving by it and I don’t get all excited thinking, “this is the one!”, only to be disappointed by reality – at one point I even made a list of specific street addresses that I was interested in if they ever became available (engineers are weird!) – knowledge you might want to have for your area of interest: where are the parks / schools / bus stops, traffic / noise issues, future development or re-development plans, etc

~

Is the lower end of the market coming to a buy point? That is one tough question to answer – there are so many variables involved and lots of unknowns – because of the unknowns risk is high – as an investor buying rental property I can sit on the fence when risk is high and not try to differentiate market segments – someone who needs to put a roof over their family’s head has a different perspective on making a purchase decision

If I were drinking a beer with the potential low-end house buyer and they asked me about buying a house in 2008 I would probably encourage them to rent unless they found their own personal Shangri-la at a price that was well within their means

[Ozzie]

The RE market here has me confused. My wife has been reading the dismal headlines for the last year and thinks that we need to sell our home in South Carlsbad and either buy a foreclosure or short sale “steal” or rent a similar property for 30-50% less than our mortgage. Ran into a couple problems and selling our home isn’t one of them. In fact, we have two parties that would buy our house if we were to move. Based on a couple recent sales nearby it would be a great price. The problem is finding a replacement property that is anywhere near as nice as what we have for a price that we consider a bargain. Rents for decent, newer SFD homes are running $1.20 – $1.30 a sq foot and that’s what we pay for our mortgage so renting gets us nothing and we’d have to move to a new neighborhood whereas we love the area we’re in so the rental path does not work. Finding a foreclosure would mean we would have to sell, rent, and then be ready to pounce on something when we see it. That means two moves, storing our furnishings for a while, and not being assured we’d find something that comes close to the lifestyle we currently enjoy. Again it just doesn’t make sense. The big surprise to me was how much rents have increased. I expected lots of empty houses in 92009 and 92024, but we’re not there yet. Maybe in 2009 after more resets or will everyone inlcuding the banks be bailed out by then?

[SD Realtor]

Oz your strategy works ONLY if you are prepared to NOT buy for awhile. I have a client who just did what you are thinking about. They live in Olde Carlsbad and they priced aggressively and sold quickly at below the asking price. They are going to rent but they will not be returning to buy a home until at least 2010-2011. You cannot expect to make the plan you have worthwhile by being able to make a purchase in the short term. To be able to enjoy a rise in equity due to a price reduction, a lower tax base, and a similar lifestyle you will have to be prepared sell now and then simply wait…wait…wait.

SD Realtor

[Bugs]

Oz, if this was your plan, the time to sell would have been in mid-2006 and you would have been sitting on the sidelines for however long it took for your target market to settle.

Remember what I said about the different markets moving at different paces. When it comes to the big pricing declines, most of the price segments in Carlsbad/Encinitas/Solana Bch will be among the last “joiners”, along with CV and Scripps. That means you’ll have have even more patience in those areas than in others.

It’ll be the least desirable areas and property types that will reach that re-entry point soonest. From there, everyone else will just have to wait.

[Bugs]

Oz, if this was your plan, the time to sell would have been in mid-2006 and you would have been sitting on the sidelines for however long it took for your target market to settle.

Remember what I said about the different markets moving at different paces. When it comes to the big pricing declines, most of the price segments in Carlsbad/Encinitas/Solana Bch will be among the last “joiners”, along with CV and Scripps. That means you’ll have have even more patience in those areas than in others.

It’ll be the least desirable areas and property types that will reach that re-entry point soonest. From there, everyone else will just have to wait.

[Bugs]

Oz, if this was your plan, the time to sell would have been in mid-2006 and you would have been sitting on the sidelines for however long it took for your target market to settle.

Remember what I said about the different markets moving at different paces. When it comes to the big pricing declines, most of the price segments in Carlsbad/Encinitas/Solana Bch will be among the last “joiners”, along with CV and Scripps. That means you’ll have have even more patience in those areas than in others.

It’ll be the least desirable areas and property types that will reach that re-entry point soonest. From there, everyone else will just have to wait.

[Bugs]

Oz, if this was your plan, the time to sell would have been in mid-2006 and you would have been sitting on the sidelines for however long it took for your target market to settle.

Remember what I said about the different markets moving at different paces. When it comes to the big pricing declines, most of the price segments in Carlsbad/Encinitas/Solana Bch will be among the last “joiners”, along with CV and Scripps. That means you’ll have have even more patience in those areas than in others.

It’ll be the least desirable areas and property types that will reach that re-entry point soonest. From there, everyone else will just have to wait.

[Bugs]

Oz, if this was your plan, the time to sell would have been in mid-2006 and you would have been sitting on the sidelines for however long it took for your target market to settle.

Remember what I said about the different markets moving at different paces. When it comes to the big pricing declines, most of the price segments in Carlsbad/Encinitas/Solana Bch will be among the last “joiners”, along with CV and Scripps. That means you’ll have have even more patience in those areas than in others.

It’ll be the least desirable areas and property types that will reach that re-entry point soonest. From there, everyone else will just have to wait.

[Ozzie]

Well as I said it was my wife’s “plan” not mine. The problem with the renting idea is that it’s a substandard lifestyle for us. My wife is a habitual decorator and very good at it, but there’s no way a landlord would let her make a bunch of changes and no way I’d let her pay to upgrade someone else’s property. Secondly, it’s just not a big savings even though I have a damn big mortgage. I can’t wait another 3 years because my kids will be out of high school in 5-6 years so I’m not going to deprive them of a great environment in the meantinem to save a few bucks. If it were already 2014 and the kids were at college it would be a much different story.

[patientrenter]

Ozzie, How is the potential payoff “not a big savings”? If you sell your home now for $1 million, and buy something just as good in 2012 for $600K, wouldn’t that save you almost $400K? You can use investment earnings on the $1 million to offset the rent until you buy.

For me, $400K represents a “big savings”. I guess I am poorer than I thought.

Patient renter in OC

[Ozzie]

A comparable house would cost about $4500/month to rent right now and that would involve moving my family to a new neighborhood and hoping the lifestyle is comparable which I doubt it would be. Paying over $200,000 in rent over the next 4 years and then hoping the market in 2012 would be at 2000 prices seems highly unlikely to me, and in 2012 I’ll be looking to downsize.

There’s an interesting new product from Rex & Co. that lets you take out equity on your house in exchange for giving up a percentage of future equity gains which I think I might do. It’s not a loan that you pay interest on and it’s not a reverse mortgage. It’s basically an option based on a current appraisal. There are some issues that I need legal advice on but it seems like it might be a good hedge against future declines

[sdrealtor]

Ozzie
A few months ago you were the ultimate La Costa Valley bull. You said it would NEVER happen there. Now you are planning your flight. Sorry bud but that train already left the station. You sound awful hypocritical to me today.

sdr

[Ozzie]

sdr,

A bull to me is someone who believes a certain asset is going to rise in price in the near future which I don’t believe I ever said. I did say that LCV has not lost value like all the headlines would lead you to believe. That’s still the case today. It’s has basically been flat for going on 3.5 years. You’ll find a foreclosure or two every couple months, but there are still no real deals.

If you actually read my post you would see that I said it would be stupid to sell because renting is not a viable alternative in term of both lifestyle and the rising cost of renting a decent home. If the train has left the station as you say then why did a house here just sell for the 2nd highest price ever in LCV? And it wasn’t even listed in the MLS. And it had a backup offer. But of course you know everything. Just ask you.

[sdrealtor]

Ozzie,
Dont try to compare your house or any others to the one at the end of your street. That was a unique situation and one of less than 5 in LCV that could garner that type of attention. When the house 3 doors down sells you will see the market has not been flat for 3.5 years. Why dont you compare the current value of any of the other homes you sold there in the last couple years with what they could go for today?

sdr

[sdrealtor]

Ozzie,
Dont try to compare your house or any others to the one at the end of your street. That was a unique situation and one of less than 5 in LCV that could garner that type of attention. When the house 3 doors down sells you will see the market has not been flat for 3.5 years. Why dont you compare the current value of any of the other homes you sold there in the last couple years with what they could go for today?

sdr

[sdrealtor]

Ozzie,
Dont try to compare your house or any others to the one at the end of your street. That was a unique situation and one of less than 5 in LCV that could garner that type of attention. When the house 3 doors down sells you will see the market has not been flat for 3.5 years. Why dont you compare the current value of any of the other homes you sold there in the last couple years with what they could go for today?

sdr

[sdrealtor]

Ozzie,
Dont try to compare your house or any others to the one at the end of your street. That was a unique situation and one of less than 5 in LCV that could garner that type of attention. When the house 3 doors down sells you will see the market has not been flat for 3.5 years. Why dont you compare the current value of any of the other homes you sold there in the last couple years with what they could go for today?

sdr

[sdrealtor]

Ozzie,
Dont try to compare your house or any others to the one at the end of your street. That was a unique situation and one of less than 5 in LCV that could garner that type of attention. When the house 3 doors down sells you will see the market has not been flat for 3.5 years. Why dont you compare the current value of any of the other homes you sold there in the last couple years with what they could go for today?

sdr

[sdrealtor]

[quote=Ozzie]sdr,

A bull to me is someone who believes a certain asset is going to rise in price in the near future which I don’t believe I ever said. I did say that LCV has not lost value like all the headlines would lead you to believe. That’s still the case today. It’s has basically been flat for going on 3.5 years. You’ll find a foreclosure or two every couple months, but there are still no real deals.

If you actually read my post you would see that I said it would be stupid to sell because renting is not a viable alternative in term of both lifestyle and the rising cost of renting a decent home. If the train has left the station as you say then why did a house here just sell for the 2nd highest price ever in LCV? And it wasn’t even listed in the MLS. And it had a backup offer. But of course you know everything. Just ask you.[/quote]

For those of you whop havent been around long enough to know I was once very bearish on things here is an oldie but goodie. The house he mentioned that sold for the 2nd highest price ever in LCV? It closed as a short sale almost 3 years to day the later at a loss of about $400K. The buyer was a friend of mine who sold one of the smallest houses in the community at the peak, sat on the sidelines for 3 years and then picked up a gem. Winning!!!

And what became of my foil-ozzie? Instead of selling and moving into a “substandard lifestyle rental home” he stayed put. His house is now on the market and he will likely lose close to $400K on his 2006 purchase wiping out all the equity he had when he sold his prior home and moved up. Losing!!!

[pemeliza]

Looks like LCV is finally taking a pretty substantial hit. Seems like the people who moved up at the peak with big down payments are all going to end up losing everything. Makes you start to wonder just how many people actually had the discipline to cash out in 2004-2006 and sit on the sidelines in a rental ready to pounce on the current “deals”. Probably not too many.

[sdrealtor]

Actually the big hits are exactly where I said they would be in LCV. The high end homes which were unique when built have lots of comeptition now. There is a 4,000 sq ft beautiful newer home on every corner around here now while there wasnt in 2002/2003. The bottom half of LCV is holding up extremely well as there are very few newer 4 or 5BR homes between 2000 and 2800 sq ft around here. Its price compression at its finest here.

[sdrealtor]

Actually the big hits are exactly where I said they would be in LCV. The high end homes which were unique when built have lots of comeptition now. There is a 4,000 sq ft beautiful newer home on every corner around here now while there wasnt in 2002/2003. The bottom half of LCV is holding up extremely well as there are very few newer 4 or 5BR homes between 2000 and 2800 sq ft around here. Its price compression at its finest here.

[sdrealtor]

Actually the big hits are exactly where I said they would be in LCV. The high end homes which were unique when built have lots of comeptition now. There is a 4,000 sq ft beautiful newer home on every corner around here now while there wasnt in 2002/2003. The bottom half of LCV is holding up extremely well as there are very few newer 4 or 5BR homes between 2000 and 2800 sq ft around here. Its price compression at its finest here.

[sdrealtor]

Actually the big hits are exactly where I said they would be in LCV. The high end homes which were unique when built have lots of comeptition now. There is a 4,000 sq ft beautiful newer home on every corner around here now while there wasnt in 2002/2003. The bottom half of LCV is holding up extremely well as there are very few newer 4 or 5BR homes between 2000 and 2800 sq ft around here. Its price compression at its finest here.

[sdrealtor]

Actually the big hits are exactly where I said they would be in LCV. The high end homes which were unique when built have lots of comeptition now. There is a 4,000 sq ft beautiful newer home on every corner around here now while there wasnt in 2002/2003. The bottom half of LCV is holding up extremely well as there are very few newer 4 or 5BR homes between 2000 and 2800 sq ft around here. Its price compression at its finest here.

[pemeliza]

Looks like LCV is finally taking a pretty substantial hit. Seems like the people who moved up at the peak with big down payments are all going to end up losing everything. Makes you start to wonder just how many people actually had the discipline to cash out in 2004-2006 and sit on the sidelines in a rental ready to pounce on the current “deals”. Probably not too many.

[pemeliza]

Looks like LCV is finally taking a pretty substantial hit. Seems like the people who moved up at the peak with big down payments are all going to end up losing everything. Makes you start to wonder just how many people actually had the discipline to cash out in 2004-2006 and sit on the sidelines in a rental ready to pounce on the current “deals”. Probably not too many.

[pemeliza]

Looks like LCV is finally taking a pretty substantial hit. Seems like the people who moved up at the peak with big down payments are all going to end up losing everything. Makes you start to wonder just how many people actually had the discipline to cash out in 2004-2006 and sit on the sidelines in a rental ready to pounce on the current “deals”. Probably not too many.

[pemeliza]

Looks like LCV is finally taking a pretty substantial hit. Seems like the people who moved up at the peak with big down payments are all going to end up losing everything. Makes you start to wonder just how many people actually had the discipline to cash out in 2004-2006 and sit on the sidelines in a rental ready to pounce on the current “deals”. Probably not too many.

[pemeliza]

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[pemeliza]

–deleted–

[pemeliza]

–deleted–

[pemeliza]

–deleted–

[pemeliza]

–deleted–

[sdrealtor]

[quote=Ozzie]sdr,

A bull to me is someone who believes a certain asset is going to rise in price in the near future which I don’t believe I ever said. I did say that LCV has not lost value like all the headlines would lead you to believe. That’s still the case today. It’s has basically been flat for going on 3.5 years. You’ll find a foreclosure or two every couple months, but there are still no real deals.

If you actually read my post you would see that I said it would be stupid to sell because renting is not a viable alternative in term of both lifestyle and the rising cost of renting a decent home. If the train has left the station as you say then why did a house here just sell for the 2nd highest price ever in LCV? And it wasn’t even listed in the MLS. And it had a backup offer. But of course you know everything. Just ask you.[/quote]

For those of you whop havent been around long enough to know I was once very bearish on things here is an oldie but goodie. The house he mentioned that sold for the 2nd highest price ever in LCV? It closed as a short sale almost 3 years to day the later at a loss of about $400K. The buyer was a friend of mine who sold one of the smallest houses in the community at the peak, sat on the sidelines for 3 years and then picked up a gem. Winning!!!

And what became of my foil-ozzie? Instead of selling and moving into a “substandard lifestyle rental home” he stayed put. His house is now on the market and he will likely lose close to $400K on his 2006 purchase wiping out all the equity he had when he sold his prior home and moved up. Losing!!!

[sdrealtor]

[quote=Ozzie]sdr,

A bull to me is someone who believes a certain asset is going to rise in price in the near future which I don’t believe I ever said. I did say that LCV has not lost value like all the headlines would lead you to believe. That’s still the case today. It’s has basically been flat for going on 3.5 years. You’ll find a foreclosure or two every couple months, but there are still no real deals.

If you actually read my post you would see that I said it would be stupid to sell because renting is not a viable alternative in term of both lifestyle and the rising cost of renting a decent home. If the train has left the station as you say then why did a house here just sell for the 2nd highest price ever in LCV? And it wasn’t even listed in the MLS. And it had a backup offer. But of course you know everything. Just ask you.[/quote]

For those of you whop havent been around long enough to know I was once very bearish on things here is an oldie but goodie. The house he mentioned that sold for the 2nd highest price ever in LCV? It closed as a short sale almost 3 years to day the later at a loss of about $400K. The buyer was a friend of mine who sold one of the smallest houses in the community at the peak, sat on the sidelines for 3 years and then picked up a gem. Winning!!!

And what became of my foil-ozzie? Instead of selling and moving into a “substandard lifestyle rental home” he stayed put. His house is now on the market and he will likely lose close to $400K on his 2006 purchase wiping out all the equity he had when he sold his prior home and moved up. Losing!!!

[sdrealtor]

[quote=Ozzie]sdr,

A bull to me is someone who believes a certain asset is going to rise in price in the near future which I don’t believe I ever said. I did say that LCV has not lost value like all the headlines would lead you to believe. That’s still the case today. It’s has basically been flat for going on 3.5 years. You’ll find a foreclosure or two every couple months, but there are still no real deals.

If you actually read my post you would see that I said it would be stupid to sell because renting is not a viable alternative in term of both lifestyle and the rising cost of renting a decent home. If the train has left the station as you say then why did a house here just sell for the 2nd highest price ever in LCV? And it wasn’t even listed in the MLS. And it had a backup offer. But of course you know everything. Just ask you.[/quote]

For those of you whop havent been around long enough to know I was once very bearish on things here is an oldie but goodie. The house he mentioned that sold for the 2nd highest price ever in LCV? It closed as a short sale almost 3 years to day the later at a loss of about $400K. The buyer was a friend of mine who sold one of the smallest houses in the community at the peak, sat on the sidelines for 3 years and then picked up a gem. Winning!!!

And what became of my foil-ozzie? Instead of selling and moving into a “substandard lifestyle rental home” he stayed put. His house is now on the market and he will likely lose close to $400K on his 2006 purchase wiping out all the equity he had when he sold his prior home and moved up. Losing!!!

[sdrealtor]

[quote=Ozzie]sdr,

A bull to me is someone who believes a certain asset is going to rise in price in the near future which I don’t believe I ever said. I did say that LCV has not lost value like all the headlines would lead you to believe. That’s still the case today. It’s has basically been flat for going on 3.5 years. You’ll find a foreclosure or two every couple months, but there are still no real deals.

If you actually read my post you would see that I said it would be stupid to sell because renting is not a viable alternative in term of both lifestyle and the rising cost of renting a decent home. If the train has left the station as you say then why did a house here just sell for the 2nd highest price ever in LCV? And it wasn’t even listed in the MLS. And it had a backup offer. But of course you know everything. Just ask you.[/quote]

For those of you whop havent been around long enough to know I was once very bearish on things here is an oldie but goodie. The house he mentioned that sold for the 2nd highest price ever in LCV? It closed as a short sale almost 3 years to day the later at a loss of about $400K. The buyer was a friend of mine who sold one of the smallest houses in the community at the peak, sat on the sidelines for 3 years and then picked up a gem. Winning!!!

And what became of my foil-ozzie? Instead of selling and moving into a “substandard lifestyle rental home” he stayed put. His house is now on the market and he will likely lose close to $400K on his 2006 purchase wiping out all the equity he had when he sold his prior home and moved up. Losing!!!

[Ozzie]

sdr,

A bull to me is someone who believes a certain asset is going to rise in price in the near future which I don’t believe I ever said. I did say that LCV has not lost value like all the headlines would lead you to believe. That’s still the case today. It’s has basically been flat for going on 3.5 years. You’ll find a foreclosure or two every couple months, but there are still no real deals.

If you actually read my post you would see that I said it would be stupid to sell because renting is not a viable alternative in term of both lifestyle and the rising cost of renting a decent home. If the train has left the station as you say then why did a house here just sell for the 2nd highest price ever in LCV? And it wasn’t even listed in the MLS. And it had a backup offer. But of course you know everything. Just ask you.

[Ozzie]

sdr,

A bull to me is someone who believes a certain asset is going to rise in price in the near future which I don’t believe I ever said. I did say that LCV has not lost value like all the headlines would lead you to believe. That’s still the case today. It’s has basically been flat for going on 3.5 years. You’ll find a foreclosure or two every couple months, but there are still no real deals.

If you actually read my post you would see that I said it would be stupid to sell because renting is not a viable alternative in term of both lifestyle and the rising cost of renting a decent home. If the train has left the station as you say then why did a house here just sell for the 2nd highest price ever in LCV? And it wasn’t even listed in the MLS. And it had a backup offer. But of course you know everything. Just ask you.

[Ozzie]

sdr,

A bull to me is someone who believes a certain asset is going to rise in price in the near future which I don’t believe I ever said. I did say that LCV has not lost value like all the headlines would lead you to believe. That’s still the case today. It’s has basically been flat for going on 3.5 years. You’ll find a foreclosure or two every couple months, but there are still no real deals.

If you actually read my post you would see that I said it would be stupid to sell because renting is not a viable alternative in term of both lifestyle and the rising cost of renting a decent home. If the train has left the station as you say then why did a house here just sell for the 2nd highest price ever in LCV? And it wasn’t even listed in the MLS. And it had a backup offer. But of course you know everything. Just ask you.

[Ozzie]

sdr,

A bull to me is someone who believes a certain asset is going to rise in price in the near future which I don’t believe I ever said. I did say that LCV has not lost value like all the headlines would lead you to believe. That’s still the case today. It’s has basically been flat for going on 3.5 years. You’ll find a foreclosure or two every couple months, but there are still no real deals.

If you actually read my post you would see that I said it would be stupid to sell because renting is not a viable alternative in term of both lifestyle and the rising cost of renting a decent home. If the train has left the station as you say then why did a house here just sell for the 2nd highest price ever in LCV? And it wasn’t even listed in the MLS. And it had a backup offer. But of course you know everything. Just ask you.

[sdrealtor]

Ozzie
A few months ago you were the ultimate La Costa Valley bull. You said it would NEVER happen there. Now you are planning your flight. Sorry bud but that train already left the station. You sound awful hypocritical to me today.

sdr

[sdrealtor]

Ozzie
A few months ago you were the ultimate La Costa Valley bull. You said it would NEVER happen there. Now you are planning your flight. Sorry bud but that train already left the station. You sound awful hypocritical to me today.

sdr

[sdrealtor]

Ozzie
A few months ago you were the ultimate La Costa Valley bull. You said it would NEVER happen there. Now you are planning your flight. Sorry bud but that train already left the station. You sound awful hypocritical to me today.

sdr

[sdrealtor]

Ozzie
A few months ago you were the ultimate La Costa Valley bull. You said it would NEVER happen there. Now you are planning your flight. Sorry bud but that train already left the station. You sound awful hypocritical to me today.

sdr

[patientrenter]

Ozzie, if rent for a home like yours is $4,500 / month, then your home can be sold for well over a million dollars. If you sold, I am pretty sure you could get at least $3,000 / month in tax-free munis on that million dollars over the next 4 years. You’d also save on property taxes and maintenance. That means your net cost for renting for the next 4 years would be less than $70K. This seems small compared to the likely depreciation you’ll suffer if you stay.

Saving a few hundred grand doesn’t seem important compared to the depreciation you’ll avoid if you sell? You must be very well off to not care about saving a few hundred grand. I’ll give you my address so you can mail me a refund check when my tax dollars are used to bail you out!

The only reason not to sell, besides not needing to care about money, is if you’re already almost underwater on your mortgages. Then you may as well hold on and bail for free if prices keep going down.

Patient renter in OC

[sdrealtor]

Ozman,
What happened to all your buddies lining up to snap up office space in South Carlsbad to move their rapidly growig tech businesses?

[sdrealtor]

Ozman,
What happened to all your buddies lining up to snap up office space in South Carlsbad to move their rapidly growig tech businesses?

[sdrealtor]

Ozman,
What happened to all your buddies lining up to snap up office space in South Carlsbad to move their rapidly growig tech businesses?

[sdrealtor]

Ozman,
What happened to all your buddies lining up to snap up office space in South Carlsbad to move their rapidly growig tech businesses?

[sdrealtor]

Ozman,
What happened to all your buddies lining up to snap up office space in South Carlsbad to move their rapidly growig tech businesses?

[patientlywaiting]

patientrenter, I was thinking the same thing but you said it best.

[patientlywaiting]

patientrenter, I was thinking the same thing but you said it best.

[patientlywaiting]

patientrenter, I was thinking the same thing but you said it best.

[patientlywaiting]

patientrenter, I was thinking the same thing but you said it best.

[patientlywaiting]

patientrenter, I was thinking the same thing but you said it best.

[Ozzie]

Patient renter,

I don’t own it free and clear as indicated in my previous post comparing rental prices to my mortgage so I’m not going to bank $1,000,000+ and stick it into muni’s. I guess I could make about $1500 on my equity, but I could also get a decent return by taking the Rex and Co. payout and sticking that in a CD. If I was convinced that prices were headed way down for a protracted period I would do that Rex and Co. payout immediately. It’s a great hedge, but the people behind the company are smarter than me and I’m wondering why they want to send me a $200k interest free non-taxable check to get a portion of my future equity gains which everyone here is certain does not exist.

Don’t worry, you won’t be bailing me out.

[patientrenter]

If you can get Rex and Co to pay you $200K for some future gains on your property, go for it. It may be a good deal for you.

The people behind Rex and Co may be very smart, just as Mr Mozilo was. I doubt that $200K they’re promising you is coming from them. Are the investors putting up that $200K very smart? Haha! Were the investors putting up $2 trillion in the last few years to lend against buying homes all over California and Florida and Nevada smart? Just because you can get someone to pay you $200k for future home appreciation doesn’t mean it’s worth that much. It may just mean there are a few dumb investors left, falling for the next bait.

Patient renter in OC

[patientrenter]

If you can get Rex and Co to pay you $200K for some future gains on your property, go for it. It may be a good deal for you.

The people behind Rex and Co may be very smart, just as Mr Mozilo was. I doubt that $200K they’re promising you is coming from them. Are the investors putting up that $200K very smart? Haha! Were the investors putting up $2 trillion in the last few years to lend against buying homes all over California and Florida and Nevada smart? Just because you can get someone to pay you $200k for future home appreciation doesn’t mean it’s worth that much. It may just mean there are a few dumb investors left, falling for the next bait.

Patient renter in OC

[patientrenter]

If you can get Rex and Co to pay you $200K for some future gains on your property, go for it. It may be a good deal for you.

The people behind Rex and Co may be very smart, just as Mr Mozilo was. I doubt that $200K they’re promising you is coming from them. Are the investors putting up that $200K very smart? Haha! Were the investors putting up $2 trillion in the last few years to lend against buying homes all over California and Florida and Nevada smart? Just because you can get someone to pay you $200k for future home appreciation doesn’t mean it’s worth that much. It may just mean there are a few dumb investors left, falling for the next bait.

Patient renter in OC

[patientrenter]

If you can get Rex and Co to pay you $200K for some future gains on your property, go for it. It may be a good deal for you.

The people behind Rex and Co may be very smart, just as Mr Mozilo was. I doubt that $200K they’re promising you is coming from them. Are the investors putting up that $200K very smart? Haha! Were the investors putting up $2 trillion in the last few years to lend against buying homes all over California and Florida and Nevada smart? Just because you can get someone to pay you $200k for future home appreciation doesn’t mean it’s worth that much. It may just mean there are a few dumb investors left, falling for the next bait.

Patient renter in OC

[patientrenter]

If you can get Rex and Co to pay you $200K for some future gains on your property, go for it. It may be a good deal for you.

The people behind Rex and Co may be very smart, just as Mr Mozilo was. I doubt that $200K they’re promising you is coming from them. Are the investors putting up that $200K very smart? Haha! Were the investors putting up $2 trillion in the last few years to lend against buying homes all over California and Florida and Nevada smart? Just because you can get someone to pay you $200k for future home appreciation doesn’t mean it’s worth that much. It may just mean there are a few dumb investors left, falling for the next bait.

Patient renter in OC

[Ozzie]

Patient renter,

I don’t own it free and clear as indicated in my previous post comparing rental prices to my mortgage so I’m not going to bank $1,000,000+ and stick it into muni’s. I guess I could make about $1500 on my equity, but I could also get a decent return by taking the Rex and Co. payout and sticking that in a CD. If I was convinced that prices were headed way down for a protracted period I would do that Rex and Co. payout immediately. It’s a great hedge, but the people behind the company are smarter than me and I’m wondering why they want to send me a $200k interest free non-taxable check to get a portion of my future equity gains which everyone here is certain does not exist.

Don’t worry, you won’t be bailing me out.

[Ozzie]

Patient renter,

I don’t own it free and clear as indicated in my previous post comparing rental prices to my mortgage so I’m not going to bank $1,000,000+ and stick it into muni’s. I guess I could make about $1500 on my equity, but I could also get a decent return by taking the Rex and Co. payout and sticking that in a CD. If I was convinced that prices were headed way down for a protracted period I would do that Rex and Co. payout immediately. It’s a great hedge, but the people behind the company are smarter than me and I’m wondering why they want to send me a $200k interest free non-taxable check to get a portion of my future equity gains which everyone here is certain does not exist.

Don’t worry, you won’t be bailing me out.

[Ozzie]

Patient renter,

I don’t own it free and clear as indicated in my previous post comparing rental prices to my mortgage so I’m not going to bank $1,000,000+ and stick it into muni’s. I guess I could make about $1500 on my equity, but I could also get a decent return by taking the Rex and Co. payout and sticking that in a CD. If I was convinced that prices were headed way down for a protracted period I would do that Rex and Co. payout immediately. It’s a great hedge, but the people behind the company are smarter than me and I’m wondering why they want to send me a $200k interest free non-taxable check to get a portion of my future equity gains which everyone here is certain does not exist.

Don’t worry, you won’t be bailing me out.

[Ozzie]

Patient renter,

I don’t own it free and clear as indicated in my previous post comparing rental prices to my mortgage so I’m not going to bank $1,000,000+ and stick it into muni’s. I guess I could make about $1500 on my equity, but I could also get a decent return by taking the Rex and Co. payout and sticking that in a CD. If I was convinced that prices were headed way down for a protracted period I would do that Rex and Co. payout immediately. It’s a great hedge, but the people behind the company are smarter than me and I’m wondering why they want to send me a $200k interest free non-taxable check to get a portion of my future equity gains which everyone here is certain does not exist.

Don’t worry, you won’t be bailing me out.

[patientrenter]

Ozzie, if rent for a home like yours is $4,500 / month, then your home can be sold for well over a million dollars. If you sold, I am pretty sure you could get at least $3,000 / month in tax-free munis on that million dollars over the next 4 years. You’d also save on property taxes and maintenance. That means your net cost for renting for the next 4 years would be less than $70K. This seems small compared to the likely depreciation you’ll suffer if you stay.

Saving a few hundred grand doesn’t seem important compared to the depreciation you’ll avoid if you sell? You must be very well off to not care about saving a few hundred grand. I’ll give you my address so you can mail me a refund check when my tax dollars are used to bail you out!

The only reason not to sell, besides not needing to care about money, is if you’re already almost underwater on your mortgages. Then you may as well hold on and bail for free if prices keep going down.

Patient renter in OC

[patientrenter]

Ozzie, if rent for a home like yours is $4,500 / month, then your home can be sold for well over a million dollars. If you sold, I am pretty sure you could get at least $3,000 / month in tax-free munis on that million dollars over the next 4 years. You’d also save on property taxes and maintenance. That means your net cost for renting for the next 4 years would be less than $70K. This seems small compared to the likely depreciation you’ll suffer if you stay.

Saving a few hundred grand doesn’t seem important compared to the depreciation you’ll avoid if you sell? You must be very well off to not care about saving a few hundred grand. I’ll give you my address so you can mail me a refund check when my tax dollars are used to bail you out!

The only reason not to sell, besides not needing to care about money, is if you’re already almost underwater on your mortgages. Then you may as well hold on and bail for free if prices keep going down.

Patient renter in OC

[patientrenter]

Ozzie, if rent for a home like yours is $4,500 / month, then your home can be sold for well over a million dollars. If you sold, I am pretty sure you could get at least $3,000 / month in tax-free munis on that million dollars over the next 4 years. You’d also save on property taxes and maintenance. That means your net cost for renting for the next 4 years would be less than $70K. This seems small compared to the likely depreciation you’ll suffer if you stay.

Saving a few hundred grand doesn’t seem important compared to the depreciation you’ll avoid if you sell? You must be very well off to not care about saving a few hundred grand. I’ll give you my address so you can mail me a refund check when my tax dollars are used to bail you out!

The only reason not to sell, besides not needing to care about money, is if you’re already almost underwater on your mortgages. Then you may as well hold on and bail for free if prices keep going down.

Patient renter in OC

[patientrenter]

Ozzie, if rent for a home like yours is $4,500 / month, then your home can be sold for well over a million dollars. If you sold, I am pretty sure you could get at least $3,000 / month in tax-free munis on that million dollars over the next 4 years. You’d also save on property taxes and maintenance. That means your net cost for renting for the next 4 years would be less than $70K. This seems small compared to the likely depreciation you’ll suffer if you stay.

Saving a few hundred grand doesn’t seem important compared to the depreciation you’ll avoid if you sell? You must be very well off to not care about saving a few hundred grand. I’ll give you my address so you can mail me a refund check when my tax dollars are used to bail you out!

The only reason not to sell, besides not needing to care about money, is if you’re already almost underwater on your mortgages. Then you may as well hold on and bail for free if prices keep going down.

Patient renter in OC

[Ozzie]

A comparable house would cost about $4500/month to rent right now and that would involve moving my family to a new neighborhood and hoping the lifestyle is comparable which I doubt it would be. Paying over $200,000 in rent over the next 4 years and then hoping the market in 2012 would be at 2000 prices seems highly unlikely to me, and in 2012 I’ll be looking to downsize.

There’s an interesting new product from Rex & Co. that lets you take out equity on your house in exchange for giving up a percentage of future equity gains which I think I might do. It’s not a loan that you pay interest on and it’s not a reverse mortgage. It’s basically an option based on a current appraisal. There are some issues that I need legal advice on but it seems like it might be a good hedge against future declines

[Ozzie]

A comparable house would cost about $4500/month to rent right now and that would involve moving my family to a new neighborhood and hoping the lifestyle is comparable which I doubt it would be. Paying over $200,000 in rent over the next 4 years and then hoping the market in 2012 would be at 2000 prices seems highly unlikely to me, and in 2012 I’ll be looking to downsize.

There’s an interesting new product from Rex & Co. that lets you take out equity on your house in exchange for giving up a percentage of future equity gains which I think I might do. It’s not a loan that you pay interest on and it’s not a reverse mortgage. It’s basically an option based on a current appraisal. There are some issues that I need legal advice on but it seems like it might be a good hedge against future declines

[Ozzie]

A comparable house would cost about $4500/month to rent right now and that would involve moving my family to a new neighborhood and hoping the lifestyle is comparable which I doubt it would be. Paying over $200,000 in rent over the next 4 years and then hoping the market in 2012 would be at 2000 prices seems highly unlikely to me, and in 2012 I’ll be looking to downsize.

There’s an interesting new product from Rex & Co. that lets you take out equity on your house in exchange for giving up a percentage of future equity gains which I think I might do. It’s not a loan that you pay interest on and it’s not a reverse mortgage. It’s basically an option based on a current appraisal. There are some issues that I need legal advice on but it seems like it might be a good hedge against future declines

[Ozzie]

A comparable house would cost about $4500/month to rent right now and that would involve moving my family to a new neighborhood and hoping the lifestyle is comparable which I doubt it would be. Paying over $200,000 in rent over the next 4 years and then hoping the market in 2012 would be at 2000 prices seems highly unlikely to me, and in 2012 I’ll be looking to downsize.

There’s an interesting new product from Rex & Co. that lets you take out equity on your house in exchange for giving up a percentage of future equity gains which I think I might do. It’s not a loan that you pay interest on and it’s not a reverse mortgage. It’s basically an option based on a current appraisal. There are some issues that I need legal advice on but it seems like it might be a good hedge against future declines

[patientrenter]

Ozzie, How is the potential payoff “not a big savings”? If you sell your home now for $1 million, and buy something just as good in 2012 for $600K, wouldn’t that save you almost $400K? You can use investment earnings on the $1 million to offset the rent until you buy.

For me, $400K represents a “big savings”. I guess I am poorer than I thought.

Patient renter in OC

[patientrenter]

Ozzie, How is the potential payoff “not a big savings”? If you sell your home now for $1 million, and buy something just as good in 2012 for $600K, wouldn’t that save you almost $400K? You can use investment earnings on the $1 million to offset the rent until you buy.

For me, $400K represents a “big savings”. I guess I am poorer than I thought.

Patient renter in OC

[patientrenter]

Ozzie, How is the potential payoff “not a big savings”? If you sell your home now for $1 million, and buy something just as good in 2012 for $600K, wouldn’t that save you almost $400K? You can use investment earnings on the $1 million to offset the rent until you buy.

For me, $400K represents a “big savings”. I guess I am poorer than I thought.

Patient renter in OC

[patientrenter]

Ozzie, How is the potential payoff “not a big savings”? If you sell your home now for $1 million, and buy something just as good in 2012 for $600K, wouldn’t that save you almost $400K? You can use investment earnings on the $1 million to offset the rent until you buy.

For me, $400K represents a “big savings”. I guess I am poorer than I thought.

Patient renter in OC

[Ozzie]

Well as I said it was my wife’s “plan” not mine. The problem with the renting idea is that it’s a substandard lifestyle for us. My wife is a habitual decorator and very good at it, but there’s no way a landlord would let her make a bunch of changes and no way I’d let her pay to upgrade someone else’s property. Secondly, it’s just not a big savings even though I have a damn big mortgage. I can’t wait another 3 years because my kids will be out of high school in 5-6 years so I’m not going to deprive them of a great environment in the meantinem to save a few bucks. If it were already 2014 and the kids were at college it would be a much different story.

[Ozzie]

Well as I said it was my wife’s “plan” not mine. The problem with the renting idea is that it’s a substandard lifestyle for us. My wife is a habitual decorator and very good at it, but there’s no way a landlord would let her make a bunch of changes and no way I’d let her pay to upgrade someone else’s property. Secondly, it’s just not a big savings even though I have a damn big mortgage. I can’t wait another 3 years because my kids will be out of high school in 5-6 years so I’m not going to deprive them of a great environment in the meantinem to save a few bucks. If it were already 2014 and the kids were at college it would be a much different story.

[Ozzie]

Well as I said it was my wife’s “plan” not mine. The problem with the renting idea is that it’s a substandard lifestyle for us. My wife is a habitual decorator and very good at it, but there’s no way a landlord would let her make a bunch of changes and no way I’d let her pay to upgrade someone else’s property. Secondly, it’s just not a big savings even though I have a damn big mortgage. I can’t wait another 3 years because my kids will be out of high school in 5-6 years so I’m not going to deprive them of a great environment in the meantinem to save a few bucks. If it were already 2014 and the kids were at college it would be a much different story.

[Ozzie]

Well as I said it was my wife’s “plan” not mine. The problem with the renting idea is that it’s a substandard lifestyle for us. My wife is a habitual decorator and very good at it, but there’s no way a landlord would let her make a bunch of changes and no way I’d let her pay to upgrade someone else’s property. Secondly, it’s just not a big savings even though I have a damn big mortgage. I can’t wait another 3 years because my kids will be out of high school in 5-6 years so I’m not going to deprive them of a great environment in the meantinem to save a few bucks. If it were already 2014 and the kids were at college it would be a much different story.

[SD Realtor]

Oz your strategy works ONLY if you are prepared to NOT buy for awhile. I have a client who just did what you are thinking about. They live in Olde Carlsbad and they priced aggressively and sold quickly at below the asking price. They are going to rent but they will not be returning to buy a home until at least 2010-2011. You cannot expect to make the plan you have worthwhile by being able to make a purchase in the short term. To be able to enjoy a rise in equity due to a price reduction, a lower tax base, and a similar lifestyle you will have to be prepared sell now and then simply wait…wait…wait.

SD Realtor

[SD Realtor]

Oz your strategy works ONLY if you are prepared to NOT buy for awhile. I have a client who just did what you are thinking about. They live in Olde Carlsbad and they priced aggressively and sold quickly at below the asking price. They are going to rent but they will not be returning to buy a home until at least 2010-2011. You cannot expect to make the plan you have worthwhile by being able to make a purchase in the short term. To be able to enjoy a rise in equity due to a price reduction, a lower tax base, and a similar lifestyle you will have to be prepared sell now and then simply wait…wait…wait.

SD Realtor

[SD Realtor]

Oz your strategy works ONLY if you are prepared to NOT buy for awhile. I have a client who just did what you are thinking about. They live in Olde Carlsbad and they priced aggressively and sold quickly at below the asking price. They are going to rent but they will not be returning to buy a home until at least 2010-2011. You cannot expect to make the plan you have worthwhile by being able to make a purchase in the short term. To be able to enjoy a rise in equity due to a price reduction, a lower tax base, and a similar lifestyle you will have to be prepared sell now and then simply wait…wait…wait.

SD Realtor

[SD Realtor]

Oz your strategy works ONLY if you are prepared to NOT buy for awhile. I have a client who just did what you are thinking about. They live in Olde Carlsbad and they priced aggressively and sold quickly at below the asking price. They are going to rent but they will not be returning to buy a home until at least 2010-2011. You cannot expect to make the plan you have worthwhile by being able to make a purchase in the short term. To be able to enjoy a rise in equity due to a price reduction, a lower tax base, and a similar lifestyle you will have to be prepared sell now and then simply wait…wait…wait.

SD Realtor

[Ozzie]

The RE market here has me confused. My wife has been reading the dismal headlines for the last year and thinks that we need to sell our home in South Carlsbad and either buy a foreclosure or short sale “steal” or rent a similar property for 30-50% less than our mortgage. Ran into a couple problems and selling our home isn’t one of them. In fact, we have two parties that would buy our house if we were to move. Based on a couple recent sales nearby it would be a great price. The problem is finding a replacement property that is anywhere near as nice as what we have for a price that we consider a bargain. Rents for decent, newer SFD homes are running $1.20 – $1.30 a sq foot and that’s what we pay for our mortgage so renting gets us nothing and we’d have to move to a new neighborhood whereas we love the area we’re in so the rental path does not work. Finding a foreclosure would mean we would have to sell, rent, and then be ready to pounce on something when we see it. That means two moves, storing our furnishings for a while, and not being assured we’d find something that comes close to the lifestyle we currently enjoy. Again it just doesn’t make sense. The big surprise to me was how much rents have increased. I expected lots of empty houses in 92009 and 92024, but we’re not there yet. Maybe in 2009 after more resets or will everyone inlcuding the banks be bailed out by then?

[Ozzie]

The RE market here has me confused. My wife has been reading the dismal headlines for the last year and thinks that we need to sell our home in South Carlsbad and either buy a foreclosure or short sale “steal” or rent a similar property for 30-50% less than our mortgage. Ran into a couple problems and selling our home isn’t one of them. In fact, we have two parties that would buy our house if we were to move. Based on a couple recent sales nearby it would be a great price. The problem is finding a replacement property that is anywhere near as nice as what we have for a price that we consider a bargain. Rents for decent, newer SFD homes are running $1.20 – $1.30 a sq foot and that’s what we pay for our mortgage so renting gets us nothing and we’d have to move to a new neighborhood whereas we love the area we’re in so the rental path does not work. Finding a foreclosure would mean we would have to sell, rent, and then be ready to pounce on something when we see it. That means two moves, storing our furnishings for a while, and not being assured we’d find something that comes close to the lifestyle we currently enjoy. Again it just doesn’t make sense. The big surprise to me was how much rents have increased. I expected lots of empty houses in 92009 and 92024, but we’re not there yet. Maybe in 2009 after more resets or will everyone inlcuding the banks be bailed out by then?

[Ozzie]

The RE market here has me confused. My wife has been reading the dismal headlines for the last year and thinks that we need to sell our home in South Carlsbad and either buy a foreclosure or short sale “steal” or rent a similar property for 30-50% less than our mortgage. Ran into a couple problems and selling our home isn’t one of them. In fact, we have two parties that would buy our house if we were to move. Based on a couple recent sales nearby it would be a great price. The problem is finding a replacement property that is anywhere near as nice as what we have for a price that we consider a bargain. Rents for decent, newer SFD homes are running $1.20 – $1.30 a sq foot and that’s what we pay for our mortgage so renting gets us nothing and we’d have to move to a new neighborhood whereas we love the area we’re in so the rental path does not work. Finding a foreclosure would mean we would have to sell, rent, and then be ready to pounce on something when we see it. That means two moves, storing our furnishings for a while, and not being assured we’d find something that comes close to the lifestyle we currently enjoy. Again it just doesn’t make sense. The big surprise to me was how much rents have increased. I expected lots of empty houses in 92009 and 92024, but we’re not there yet. Maybe in 2009 after more resets or will everyone inlcuding the banks be bailed out by then?

[Ozzie]

The RE market here has me confused. My wife has been reading the dismal headlines for the last year and thinks that we need to sell our home in South Carlsbad and either buy a foreclosure or short sale “steal” or rent a similar property for 30-50% less than our mortgage. Ran into a couple problems and selling our home isn’t one of them. In fact, we have two parties that would buy our house if we were to move. Based on a couple recent sales nearby it would be a great price. The problem is finding a replacement property that is anywhere near as nice as what we have for a price that we consider a bargain. Rents for decent, newer SFD homes are running $1.20 – $1.30 a sq foot and that’s what we pay for our mortgage so renting gets us nothing and we’d have to move to a new neighborhood whereas we love the area we’re in so the rental path does not work. Finding a foreclosure would mean we would have to sell, rent, and then be ready to pounce on something when we see it. That means two moves, storing our furnishings for a while, and not being assured we’d find something that comes close to the lifestyle we currently enjoy. Again it just doesn’t make sense. The big surprise to me was how much rents have increased. I expected lots of empty houses in 92009 and 92024, but we’re not there yet. Maybe in 2009 after more resets or will everyone inlcuding the banks be bailed out by then?

[faterikcartman]

Note to self: don’t get on sdr’s bad side. He’s like an elephant — he won’t forget!

[sdrealtor]

😉

welcome back faterik

[temeculaguy]

I remember those posts, Good times! I see it math vs. vocabulary. sdr was one of many “math” bears here on piggington pre-2007. Now he’s a “math” bull, yet his valuations have remained essentially the same. Most of the math bears bought houses and chose not to fight with those showing up late to the game, sdr, weel, he is what I call “likes to fight guy.”

For instance, if in 2006 he felt property x was worth 700k and it was selling for 1.1 million, he’d say so, they called him a bear. If in 2011 it is for sale at 650k and he thinks it’s slightly undervalued, he’d say so, they call him a bull. He hasn’t changed, but the label he gets has.

Then there are the vocabulary bulls and bears, math means nothing to them. No matter the price or the math, they have their rhetoric and it won’t change.

[sdrealtor]

And he’ll be fightin up in Temecula tomorrow. Golf at Temeku Hills (or whateverits called now) in the am, Lee Ritenour at Thornton in the pm, dinner at where ever TG recommends with a couple big bottles and then golf at Fallbrook CC monday morning. Its all good..come on out and play with us

[temeculaguy]

Don’t leave me hanging, I can make the afternoon part or the evening, however I don’t have a ticket to the concert (I assume it’s jazz if it’s at thortons).

Dinner? What time is the show? The crowd you all rolling with? The attire? It’s a real town now brother, we got options (notice I said “we” that the art of inviting oneself. At first glance I’d say The Public House in old town, a personal fave. But post concert, based on the time the show ends, it might be limiting, late night work nights tend to be more angled toward the casino. Pre concert, while still in golf attire, perhaps some pub grub at Killarneys. I’ll send you private message and remind you of my cell #, however it doesn’t bother me to post the specifics and and allow any fellow temecula piggs to jump in, so I’m not left holding my $%^^ after you all roll to the concert without me. I can’t make either golf session, sunday morn is tied up till noon and Monday morning I have to work, but your local guide is free sunday afternoon/evening.

[sdrealtor]

I’m heading up with one of my best friends who I have known since the day I was born. We are golfing at 10:45 and should be done around 3ish. We usually drink 2 bottles on the course so we will have a good headstart on the day.

We have a room and will run over to check in and take showers. We’ll probably have some wine and cheese to get us through the concert which starts at 5. Attire for us is always pretty casual.

We didnt buy advance tickets for the concert knowing we could get them at the door and maybe get lucky buying some cheap extras from someone that got stuck with them (I’m still a Pigg after all).

Plan is to go out for dinner after the concert which will probably be 7:30 or 8:00ish.

I will call you when we hit the 14th or 15th hole to check in.

We always travel with Go Vino glasses, good wine and plenty of it.

[sdrealtor]

[quote=sdrealtor]I’m heading up with one of my best friends who I have known since the day I was born. We are golfing at 10:45 and should be done around 3ish. We usually drink 2 bottles on the course so we will have a good headstart on the day.

We have a room and will run over to check in and take showers. We’ll probably have some wine and cheese to get us through the concert which starts at 5. Attire for us is always pretty casual.

We didnt buy advance tickets for the concert knowing we could get them at the door and maybe get lucky buying some cheap extras from someone that got stuck with them (I’m still a Pigg after all).

Plan is to go out for dinner after the concert which will probably be 7:30 or 8:00ish.

I will call you when we hit the 14th or 15th hole to check in.

We always travel with Go Vino glasses, good wine and plenty of it.[/quote]

What happens in Pechanga, stays in Pechanga;)

[bearishgurl]

[quote=sdrealtor]I’m heading up with one of my best friends who I have known since the day I was born. We are golfing at 10:45 and should be done around 3ish. We usually drink 2 bottles on the course so we will have a good headstart on the day.

We have a room and will run over to check in and take showers. We’ll probably have some wine and cheese to get us through the concert which starts at 5. Attire for us is always pretty casual.

We didnt buy advance tickets for the concert knowing we could get them at the door and maybe get lucky buying some cheap extras from someone that got stuck with them (I’m still a Pigg after all).

Plan is to go out for dinner after the concert which will probably be 7:30 or 8:00ish.

I will call you when we hit the 14th or 15th hole to check in.

We always travel with Go Vino glasses, good wine and plenty of it.[/quote]

Well, sdr, it took you awhile to stumble in here at the party on Pigg on a Monday and get into the swing of things! You’re late! It’s already Tuesday!

Suffered from a bit of a “hangover,” perhaps? ;=]

Were those two bottles on the course “we usually drink” two bottles to share or two bottles each??

Just wondering . . . ;=]

[quote=sdrealtor]What happens in Pechanga, stays in Pechanga;)[/quote]

Care to share? :=0

[sdrealtor]

It turned out to be 3 bottles on the course between my friend and I. Once we hooked up with TG we went through 5 more between the 3 of us. I think there were some drinks and/or beer mixed in too. We are pros at this so we were fine today. Played another 18 holes of golf today (2 more bottles on the course) and was back home around 3.

TG was a great host and a good time was had by all. Thats all your getting.

[sdrealtor]

It turned out to be 3 bottles on the course between my friend and I. Once we hooked up with TG we went through 5 more between the 3 of us. I think there were some drinks and/or beer mixed in too. We are pros at this so we were fine today. Played another 18 holes of golf today (2 more bottles on the course) and was back home around 3.

TG was a great host and a good time was had by all. Thats all your getting.

[sdrealtor]

It turned out to be 3 bottles on the course between my friend and I. Once we hooked up with TG we went through 5 more between the 3 of us. I think there were some drinks and/or beer mixed in too. We are pros at this so we were fine today. Played another 18 holes of golf today (2 more bottles on the course) and was back home around 3.

TG was a great host and a good time was had by all. Thats all your getting.

[sdrealtor]

It turned out to be 3 bottles on the course between my friend and I. Once we hooked up with TG we went through 5 more between the 3 of us. I think there were some drinks and/or beer mixed in too. We are pros at this so we were fine today. Played another 18 holes of golf today (2 more bottles on the course) and was back home around 3.

TG was a great host and a good time was had by all. Thats all your getting.

[sdrealtor]

It turned out to be 3 bottles on the course between my friend and I. Once we hooked up with TG we went through 5 more between the 3 of us. I think there were some drinks and/or beer mixed in too. We are pros at this so we were fine today. Played another 18 holes of golf today (2 more bottles on the course) and was back home around 3.

TG was a great host and a good time was had by all. Thats all your getting.

[bearishgurl]

[quote=sdrealtor]I’m heading up with one of my best friends who I have known since the day I was born. We are golfing at 10:45 and should be done around 3ish. We usually drink 2 bottles on the course so we will have a good headstart on the day.

We have a room and will run over to check in and take showers. We’ll probably have some wine and cheese to get us through the concert which starts at 5. Attire for us is always pretty casual.

We didnt buy advance tickets for the concert knowing we could get them at the door and maybe get lucky buying some cheap extras from someone that got stuck with them (I’m still a Pigg after all).

Plan is to go out for dinner after the concert which will probably be 7:30 or 8:00ish.

I will call you when we hit the 14th or 15th hole to check in.

We always travel with Go Vino glasses, good wine and plenty of it.[/quote]

Well, sdr, it took you awhile to stumble in here at the party on Pigg on a Monday and get into the swing of things! You’re late! It’s already Tuesday!

Suffered from a bit of a “hangover,” perhaps? ;=]

Were those two bottles on the course “we usually drink” two bottles to share or two bottles each??

Just wondering . . . ;=]

[quote=sdrealtor]What happens in Pechanga, stays in Pechanga;)[/quote]

Care to share? :=0

[bearishgurl]

[quote=sdrealtor]I’m heading up with one of my best friends who I have known since the day I was born. We are golfing at 10:45 and should be done around 3ish. We usually drink 2 bottles on the course so we will have a good headstart on the day.

We have a room and will run over to check in and take showers. We’ll probably have some wine and cheese to get us through the concert which starts at 5. Attire for us is always pretty casual.

We didnt buy advance tickets for the concert knowing we could get them at the door and maybe get lucky buying some cheap extras from someone that got stuck with them (I’m still a Pigg after all).

Plan is to go out for dinner after the concert which will probably be 7:30 or 8:00ish.

I will call you when we hit the 14th or 15th hole to check in.

We always travel with Go Vino glasses, good wine and plenty of it.[/quote]

Well, sdr, it took you awhile to stumble in here at the party on Pigg on a Monday and get into the swing of things! You’re late! It’s already Tuesday!

Suffered from a bit of a “hangover,” perhaps? ;=]

Were those two bottles on the course “we usually drink” two bottles to share or two bottles each??

Just wondering . . . ;=]

[quote=sdrealtor]What happens in Pechanga, stays in Pechanga;)[/quote]

Care to share? :=0

[bearishgurl]

[quote=sdrealtor]I’m heading up with one of my best friends who I have known since the day I was born. We are golfing at 10:45 and should be done around 3ish. We usually drink 2 bottles on the course so we will have a good headstart on the day.

We have a room and will run over to check in and take showers. We’ll probably have some wine and cheese to get us through the concert which starts at 5. Attire for us is always pretty casual.

We didnt buy advance tickets for the concert knowing we could get them at the door and maybe get lucky buying some cheap extras from someone that got stuck with them (I’m still a Pigg after all).

Plan is to go out for dinner after the concert which will probably be 7:30 or 8:00ish.

I will call you when we hit the 14th or 15th hole to check in.

We always travel with Go Vino glasses, good wine and plenty of it.[/quote]

Well, sdr, it took you awhile to stumble in here at the party on Pigg on a Monday and get into the swing of things! You’re late! It’s already Tuesday!

Suffered from a bit of a “hangover,” perhaps? ;=]

Were those two bottles on the course “we usually drink” two bottles to share or two bottles each??

Just wondering . . . ;=]

[quote=sdrealtor]What happens in Pechanga, stays in Pechanga;)[/quote]

Care to share? :=0

[bearishgurl]

[quote=sdrealtor]I’m heading up with one of my best friends who I have known since the day I was born. We are golfing at 10:45 and should be done around 3ish. We usually drink 2 bottles on the course so we will have a good headstart on the day.

We have a room and will run over to check in and take showers. We’ll probably have some wine and cheese to get us through the concert which starts at 5. Attire for us is always pretty casual.

We didnt buy advance tickets for the concert knowing we could get them at the door and maybe get lucky buying some cheap extras from someone that got stuck with them (I’m still a Pigg after all).

Plan is to go out for dinner after the concert which will probably be 7:30 or 8:00ish.

I will call you when we hit the 14th or 15th hole to check in.

We always travel with Go Vino glasses, good wine and plenty of it.[/quote]

Well, sdr, it took you awhile to stumble in here at the party on Pigg on a Monday and get into the swing of things! You’re late! It’s already Tuesday!

Suffered from a bit of a “hangover,” perhaps? ;=]

Were those two bottles on the course “we usually drink” two bottles to share or two bottles each??

Just wondering . . . ;=]

[quote=sdrealtor]What happens in Pechanga, stays in Pechanga;)[/quote]

Care to share? :=0

[sdrealtor]

[quote=sdrealtor]I’m heading up with one of my best friends who I have known since the day I was born. We are golfing at 10:45 and should be done around 3ish. We usually drink 2 bottles on the course so we will have a good headstart on the day.

We have a room and will run over to check in and take showers. We’ll probably have some wine and cheese to get us through the concert which starts at 5. Attire for us is always pretty casual.

We didnt buy advance tickets for the concert knowing we could get them at the door and maybe get lucky buying some cheap extras from someone that got stuck with them (I’m still a Pigg after all).

Plan is to go out for dinner after the concert which will probably be 7:30 or 8:00ish.

I will call you when we hit the 14th or 15th hole to check in.

We always travel with Go Vino glasses, good wine and plenty of it.[/quote]

What happens in Pechanga, stays in Pechanga;)

[sdrealtor]

[quote=sdrealtor]I’m heading up with one of my best friends who I have known since the day I was born. We are golfing at 10:45 and should be done around 3ish. We usually drink 2 bottles on the course so we will have a good headstart on the day.

We have a room and will run over to check in and take showers. We’ll probably have some wine and cheese to get us through the concert which starts at 5. Attire for us is always pretty casual.

We didnt buy advance tickets for the concert knowing we could get them at the door and maybe get lucky buying some cheap extras from someone that got stuck with them (I’m still a Pigg after all).

Plan is to go out for dinner after the concert which will probably be 7:30 or 8:00ish.

I will call you when we hit the 14th or 15th hole to check in.

We always travel with Go Vino glasses, good wine and plenty of it.[/quote]

What happens in Pechanga, stays in Pechanga;)

[sdrealtor]

[quote=sdrealtor]I’m heading up with one of my best friends who I have known since the day I was born. We are golfing at 10:45 and should be done around 3ish. We usually drink 2 bottles on the course so we will have a good headstart on the day.

We have a room and will run over to check in and take showers. We’ll probably have some wine and cheese to get us through the concert which starts at 5. Attire for us is always pretty casual.

We didnt buy advance tickets for the concert knowing we could get them at the door and maybe get lucky buying some cheap extras from someone that got stuck with them (I’m still a Pigg after all).

Plan is to go out for dinner after the concert which will probably be 7:30 or 8:00ish.

I will call you when we hit the 14th or 15th hole to check in.

We always travel with Go Vino glasses, good wine and plenty of it.[/quote]

What happens in Pechanga, stays in Pechanga;)

[sdrealtor]

[quote=sdrealtor]I’m heading up with one of my best friends who I have known since the day I was born. We are golfing at 10:45 and should be done around 3ish. We usually drink 2 bottles on the course so we will have a good headstart on the day.

We have a room and will run over to check in and take showers. We’ll probably have some wine and cheese to get us through the concert which starts at 5. Attire for us is always pretty casual.

We didnt buy advance tickets for the concert knowing we could get them at the door and maybe get lucky buying some cheap extras from someone that got stuck with them (I’m still a Pigg after all).

Plan is to go out for dinner after the concert which will probably be 7:30 or 8:00ish.

I will call you when we hit the 14th or 15th hole to check in.

We always travel with Go Vino glasses, good wine and plenty of it.[/quote]

What happens in Pechanga, stays in Pechanga;)

[sdrealtor]

I’m heading up with one of my best friends who I have known since the day I was born. We are golfing at 10:45 and should be done around 3ish. We usually drink 2 bottles on the course so we will have a good headstart on the day.

We have a room and will run over to check in and take showers. We’ll probably have some wine and cheese to get us through the concert which starts at 5. Attire for us is always pretty casual.

We didnt buy advance tickets for the concert knowing we could get them at the door and maybe get lucky buying some cheap extras from someone that got stuck with them (I’m still a Pigg after all).

Plan is to go out for dinner after the concert which will probably be 7:30 or 8:00ish.

I will call you when we hit the 14th or 15th hole to check in.

We always travel with Go Vino glasses, good wine and plenty of it.

[sdrealtor]

I’m heading up with one of my best friends who I have known since the day I was born. We are golfing at 10:45 and should be done around 3ish. We usually drink 2 bottles on the course so we will have a good headstart on the day.

We have a room and will run over to check in and take showers. We’ll probably have some wine and cheese to get us through the concert which starts at 5. Attire for us is always pretty casual.

We didnt buy advance tickets for the concert knowing we could get them at the door and maybe get lucky buying some cheap extras from someone that got stuck with them (I’m still a Pigg after all).

Plan is to go out for dinner after the concert which will probably be 7:30 or 8:00ish.

I will call you when we hit the 14th or 15th hole to check in.

We always travel with Go Vino glasses, good wine and plenty of it.

[sdrealtor]

I’m heading up with one of my best friends who I have known since the day I was born. We are golfing at 10:45 and should be done around 3ish. We usually drink 2 bottles on the course so we will have a good headstart on the day.

We have a room and will run over to check in and take showers. We’ll probably have some wine and cheese to get us through the concert which starts at 5. Attire for us is always pretty casual.

We didnt buy advance tickets for the concert knowing we could get them at the door and maybe get lucky buying some cheap extras from someone that got stuck with them (I’m still a Pigg after all).

Plan is to go out for dinner after the concert which will probably be 7:30 or 8:00ish.

I will call you when we hit the 14th or 15th hole to check in.

We always travel with Go Vino glasses, good wine and plenty of it.

[sdrealtor]

I’m heading up with one of my best friends who I have known since the day I was born. We are golfing at 10:45 and should be done around 3ish. We usually drink 2 bottles on the course so we will have a good headstart on the day.

We have a room and will run over to check in and take showers. We’ll probably have some wine and cheese to get us through the concert which starts at 5. Attire for us is always pretty casual.

We didnt buy advance tickets for the concert knowing we could get them at the door and maybe get lucky buying some cheap extras from someone that got stuck with them (I’m still a Pigg after all).

Plan is to go out for dinner after the concert which will probably be 7:30 or 8:00ish.

I will call you when we hit the 14th or 15th hole to check in.

We always travel with Go Vino glasses, good wine and plenty of it.

[temeculaguy]

Don’t leave me hanging, I can make the afternoon part or the evening, however I don’t have a ticket to the concert (I assume it’s jazz if it’s at thortons).

Dinner? What time is the show? The crowd you all rolling with? The attire? It’s a real town now brother, we got options (notice I said “we” that the art of inviting oneself. At first glance I’d say The Public House in old town, a personal fave. But post concert, based on the time the show ends, it might be limiting, late night work nights tend to be more angled toward the casino. Pre concert, while still in golf attire, perhaps some pub grub at Killarneys. I’ll send you private message and remind you of my cell #, however it doesn’t bother me to post the specifics and and allow any fellow temecula piggs to jump in, so I’m not left holding my $%^^ after you all roll to the concert without me. I can’t make either golf session, sunday morn is tied up till noon and Monday morning I have to work, but your local guide is free sunday afternoon/evening.

[temeculaguy]

Don’t leave me hanging, I can make the afternoon part or the evening, however I don’t have a ticket to the concert (I assume it’s jazz if it’s at thortons).

Dinner? What time is the show? The crowd you all rolling with? The attire? It’s a real town now brother, we got options (notice I said “we” that the art of inviting oneself. At first glance I’d say The Public House in old town, a personal fave. But post concert, based on the time the show ends, it might be limiting, late night work nights tend to be more angled toward the casino. Pre concert, while still in golf attire, perhaps some pub grub at Killarneys. I’ll send you private message and remind you of my cell #, however it doesn’t bother me to post the specifics and and allow any fellow temecula piggs to jump in, so I’m not left holding my $%^^ after you all roll to the concert without me. I can’t make either golf session, sunday morn is tied up till noon and Monday morning I have to work, but your local guide is free sunday afternoon/evening.

[temeculaguy]

Don’t leave me hanging, I can make the afternoon part or the evening, however I don’t have a ticket to the concert (I assume it’s jazz if it’s at thortons).

Dinner? What time is the show? The crowd you all rolling with? The attire? It’s a real town now brother, we got options (notice I said “we” that the art of inviting oneself. At first glance I’d say The Public House in old town, a personal fave. But post concert, based on the time the show ends, it might be limiting, late night work nights tend to be more angled toward the casino. Pre concert, while still in golf attire, perhaps some pub grub at Killarneys. I’ll send you private message and remind you of my cell #, however it doesn’t bother me to post the specifics and and allow any fellow temecula piggs to jump in, so I’m not left holding my $%^^ after you all roll to the concert without me. I can’t make either golf session, sunday morn is tied up till noon and Monday morning I have to work, but your local guide is free sunday afternoon/evening.

[temeculaguy]

Don’t leave me hanging, I can make the afternoon part or the evening, however I don’t have a ticket to the concert (I assume it’s jazz if it’s at thortons).

Dinner? What time is the show? The crowd you all rolling with? The attire? It’s a real town now brother, we got options (notice I said “we” that the art of inviting oneself. At first glance I’d say The Public House in old town, a personal fave. But post concert, based on the time the show ends, it might be limiting, late night work nights tend to be more angled toward the casino. Pre concert, while still in golf attire, perhaps some pub grub at Killarneys. I’ll send you private message and remind you of my cell #, however it doesn’t bother me to post the specifics and and allow any fellow temecula piggs to jump in, so I’m not left holding my $%^^ after you all roll to the concert without me. I can’t make either golf session, sunday morn is tied up till noon and Monday morning I have to work, but your local guide is free sunday afternoon/evening.

[sdrealtor]

And he’ll be fightin up in Temecula tomorrow. Golf at Temeku Hills (or whateverits called now) in the am, Lee Ritenour at Thornton in the pm, dinner at where ever TG recommends with a couple big bottles and then golf at Fallbrook CC monday morning. Its all good..come on out and play with us

[sdrealtor]

And he’ll be fightin up in Temecula tomorrow. Golf at Temeku Hills (or whateverits called now) in the am, Lee Ritenour at Thornton in the pm, dinner at where ever TG recommends with a couple big bottles and then golf at Fallbrook CC monday morning. Its all good..come on out and play with us

[sdrealtor]

And he’ll be fightin up in Temecula tomorrow. Golf at Temeku Hills (or whateverits called now) in the am, Lee Ritenour at Thornton in the pm, dinner at where ever TG recommends with a couple big bottles and then golf at Fallbrook CC monday morning. Its all good..come on out and play with us

[sdrealtor]

And he’ll be fightin up in Temecula tomorrow. Golf at Temeku Hills (or whateverits called now) in the am, Lee Ritenour at Thornton in the pm, dinner at where ever TG recommends with a couple big bottles and then golf at Fallbrook CC monday morning. Its all good..come on out and play with us

[temeculaguy]

I remember those posts, Good times! I see it math vs. vocabulary. sdr was one of many “math” bears here on piggington pre-2007. Now he’s a “math” bull, yet his valuations have remained essentially the same. Most of the math bears bought houses and chose not to fight with those showing up late to the game, sdr, weel, he is what I call “likes to fight guy.”

For instance, if in 2006 he felt property x was worth 700k and it was selling for 1.1 million, he’d say so, they called him a bear. If in 2011 it is for sale at 650k and he thinks it’s slightly undervalued, he’d say so, they call him a bull. He hasn’t changed, but the label he gets has.

Then there are the vocabulary bulls and bears, math means nothing to them. No matter the price or the math, they have their rhetoric and it won’t change.

[temeculaguy]

I remember those posts, Good times! I see it math vs. vocabulary. sdr was one of many “math” bears here on piggington pre-2007. Now he’s a “math” bull, yet his valuations have remained essentially the same. Most of the math bears bought houses and chose not to fight with those showing up late to the game, sdr, weel, he is what I call “likes to fight guy.”

For instance, if in 2006 he felt property x was worth 700k and it was selling for 1.1 million, he’d say so, they called him a bear. If in 2011 it is for sale at 650k and he thinks it’s slightly undervalued, he’d say so, they call him a bull. He hasn’t changed, but the label he gets has.

Then there are the vocabulary bulls and bears, math means nothing to them. No matter the price or the math, they have their rhetoric and it won’t change.

[temeculaguy]

I remember those posts, Good times! I see it math vs. vocabulary. sdr was one of many “math” bears here on piggington pre-2007. Now he’s a “math” bull, yet his valuations have remained essentially the same. Most of the math bears bought houses and chose not to fight with those showing up late to the game, sdr, weel, he is what I call “likes to fight guy.”

For instance, if in 2006 he felt property x was worth 700k and it was selling for 1.1 million, he’d say so, they called him a bear. If in 2011 it is for sale at 650k and he thinks it’s slightly undervalued, he’d say so, they call him a bull. He hasn’t changed, but the label he gets has.

Then there are the vocabulary bulls and bears, math means nothing to them. No matter the price or the math, they have their rhetoric and it won’t change.

[temeculaguy]

I remember those posts, Good times! I see it math vs. vocabulary. sdr was one of many “math” bears here on piggington pre-2007. Now he’s a “math” bull, yet his valuations have remained essentially the same. Most of the math bears bought houses and chose not to fight with those showing up late to the game, sdr, weel, he is what I call “likes to fight guy.”

For instance, if in 2006 he felt property x was worth 700k and it was selling for 1.1 million, he’d say so, they called him a bear. If in 2011 it is for sale at 650k and he thinks it’s slightly undervalued, he’d say so, they call him a bull. He hasn’t changed, but the label he gets has.

Then there are the vocabulary bulls and bears, math means nothing to them. No matter the price or the math, they have their rhetoric and it won’t change.

[sdrealtor]

😉

welcome back faterik

[sdrealtor]

😉

welcome back faterik

[sdrealtor]

😉

welcome back faterik

[sdrealtor]

😉

welcome back faterik

[faterikcartman]

Note to self: don’t get on sdr’s bad side. He’s like an elephant — he won’t forget!

[faterikcartman]

Note to self: don’t get on sdr’s bad side. He’s like an elephant — he won’t forget!

[faterikcartman]

Note to self: don’t get on sdr’s bad side. He’s like an elephant — he won’t forget!

[faterikcartman]

Note to self: don’t get on sdr’s bad side. He’s like an elephant — he won’t forget!

[patb]

“In doing so, this buyer may be leaving $20k on the table, and they may be sitting in that unit for several years before they break even again, but at least they’re in and stable. It might save a marriage or two. ”

being underwater and in financial stress usually destroys marriages.

i’ve been renting for 3 years with my GF, far better to be paying cheap rent then a expensive mortgage,
and we went and built a raised bed garden in the backyard.

[patb]

“In doing so, this buyer may be leaving $20k on the table, and they may be sitting in that unit for several years before they break even again, but at least they’re in and stable. It might save a marriage or two. ”

being underwater and in financial stress usually destroys marriages.

i’ve been renting for 3 years with my GF, far better to be paying cheap rent then a expensive mortgage,
and we went and built a raised bed garden in the backyard.

[patb]

“In doing so, this buyer may be leaving $20k on the table, and they may be sitting in that unit for several years before they break even again, but at least they’re in and stable. It might save a marriage or two. ”

being underwater and in financial stress usually destroys marriages.

i’ve been renting for 3 years with my GF, far better to be paying cheap rent then a expensive mortgage,
and we went and built a raised bed garden in the backyard.

[patb]

“In doing so, this buyer may be leaving $20k on the table, and they may be sitting in that unit for several years before they break even again, but at least they’re in and stable. It might save a marriage or two. ”

being underwater and in financial stress usually destroys marriages.

i’ve been renting for 3 years with my GF, far better to be paying cheap rent then a expensive mortgage,
and we went and built a raised bed garden in the backyard.

[patb]

“In doing so, this buyer may be leaving $20k on the table, and they may be sitting in that unit for several years before they break even again, but at least they’re in and stable. It might save a marriage or two. ”

being underwater and in financial stress usually destroys marriages.

i’ve been renting for 3 years with my GF, far better to be paying cheap rent then a expensive mortgage,
and we went and built a raised bed garden in the backyard.

[Author]

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