4S ranch–Pienza Jan release

[Eugene]

So. Fast forward 8 months and what do we see?

Plan 2901 starting at $755,990
Plan 3079 starting at $762,660
Plan 3212 starting at $780,720

At this rate I’ll grow old and die before we see 3000 sqft houses in 4S for $500k again 🙁

[Eugene]

So. Fast forward 8 months and what do we see?

Plan 2901 starting at $755,990
Plan 3079 starting at $762,660
Plan 3212 starting at $780,720

At this rate I’ll grow old and die before we see 3000 sqft houses in 4S for $500k again 🙁

[Eugene]

So. Fast forward 8 months and what do we see?

Plan 2901 starting at $755,990
Plan 3079 starting at $762,660
Plan 3212 starting at $780,720

At this rate I’ll grow old and die before we see 3000 sqft houses in 4S for $500k again 🙁

[ocrenter]

but then we have this.

[ocrenter]

but then we have this.

[ocrenter]

but then we have this.

[ocrenter]

but then we have this.

[ocrenter]

but then we have this.

[SD Realtor]

Tough call on both sides guys. Personally I am in the middle of the road. I don’t think we will ever see some of the pricing suggestions that some have posted for 4S but that is my own simpleton opinion. As usual my caviot is jobs…. we get lots of layoffs then I will sing a different tune. That happens I have a feeling alot of posters and lurkers alike here may be kind of bummed.

Anyways I tried a little searching to see what the facts say. ocrenter you find gems man… I think I still owe you a title search of the cat with 9 lives. Post me that address if you can again.

So I went to the MLS and did a string search on solds in 92127. I searched for both lender and short in the remarks field and the confidential remarks field to see what came up. Not nearly as many properties as I thought would come up came up so I am wondering what I missed. Anyways here were the findings. I also only captured homes built since 1999.

Confidential Remarks = bank, lender, reo, short, foreclosure

9969 fieldthorn sold 12/07 498 purchased 2/07 558
10019 fieldthorn sold 8/06 535 purchased 3/06 605
10420 paradiso sold 600 11/07 purchased 5/06 706.5
15694 new park sold 680 7/07 purchased 11/06 824
17019 sienna ridge sold 870 9/07 purchased 1.064M 3/05
15225 dapple gray sold 905 6/07 purchased unknown
14416 rock rose sold 1.238m 4/07 purchased 1.244 9/06

Remarks = bank,lender,reo,short,foreclosure

9756 fieldthorn sold 485 5/07 purchased unknown
16546 Manassas sold 6/07 520 purchased 590 3/06
16413 Camelas sold 530 1/08 purchased 600 6/06
9741 Tallus Glen sold 559 10/07 purchased unknown
16744 Saintsbury Glen sold 552 11/07 purchased 765 8/06
16471 Calloway sold 569 8/07 purchased 615 4/06
16652 Honeybrook sold 597.5 6/07 purchased 750 10/05
10228 Lone Dove sold 789k 11/07 purchased 1.015M 4/06

**Recall this home was discussed here. It was the drug home and it went for full asking price.
7553 Via Vivaldi sold 825 10/07 purchased 642 7/03 (ATM)
10230 Sienna Hills sold 837 12/07 purchased 1.063 4/06
10219 Camino San Thomas sold 850 12/07 purchased unknown
14444 Rock Rose sold 905 10/07 purchased 1.365 4/06
9714 Fox Valley sold 920 8/07 purchased unknown
14445 Caminito Lazanja 1.089 8/07 purchased 1.5M 10/06
7371 Rancho Catalina 1.575 11/07 purchased 1.573 6/05

So what does this tell us? Well not much I guess… certainly not enough to draw major conclusions. I guess we will see in a few years. One thing to note… I did the search for homes back to 1999 but as you can see, all of the sales were in 2007 except for 1 transaction. So clearly 2007 was the year distress hit 92127. Let’s see if 2008 and beyond match the 07 numbers.

SD Realtor

[SD Realtor]

Tough call on both sides guys. Personally I am in the middle of the road. I don’t think we will ever see some of the pricing suggestions that some have posted for 4S but that is my own simpleton opinion. As usual my caviot is jobs…. we get lots of layoffs then I will sing a different tune. That happens I have a feeling alot of posters and lurkers alike here may be kind of bummed.

Anyways I tried a little searching to see what the facts say. ocrenter you find gems man… I think I still owe you a title search of the cat with 9 lives. Post me that address if you can again.

So I went to the MLS and did a string search on solds in 92127. I searched for both lender and short in the remarks field and the confidential remarks field to see what came up. Not nearly as many properties as I thought would come up came up so I am wondering what I missed. Anyways here were the findings. I also only captured homes built since 1999.

Confidential Remarks = bank, lender, reo, short, foreclosure

9969 fieldthorn sold 12/07 498 purchased 2/07 558
10019 fieldthorn sold 8/06 535 purchased 3/06 605
10420 paradiso sold 600 11/07 purchased 5/06 706.5
15694 new park sold 680 7/07 purchased 11/06 824
17019 sienna ridge sold 870 9/07 purchased 1.064M 3/05
15225 dapple gray sold 905 6/07 purchased unknown
14416 rock rose sold 1.238m 4/07 purchased 1.244 9/06

Remarks = bank,lender,reo,short,foreclosure

9756 fieldthorn sold 485 5/07 purchased unknown
16546 Manassas sold 6/07 520 purchased 590 3/06
16413 Camelas sold 530 1/08 purchased 600 6/06
9741 Tallus Glen sold 559 10/07 purchased unknown
16744 Saintsbury Glen sold 552 11/07 purchased 765 8/06
16471 Calloway sold 569 8/07 purchased 615 4/06
16652 Honeybrook sold 597.5 6/07 purchased 750 10/05
10228 Lone Dove sold 789k 11/07 purchased 1.015M 4/06

**Recall this home was discussed here. It was the drug home and it went for full asking price.
7553 Via Vivaldi sold 825 10/07 purchased 642 7/03 (ATM)
10230 Sienna Hills sold 837 12/07 purchased 1.063 4/06
10219 Camino San Thomas sold 850 12/07 purchased unknown
14444 Rock Rose sold 905 10/07 purchased 1.365 4/06
9714 Fox Valley sold 920 8/07 purchased unknown
14445 Caminito Lazanja 1.089 8/07 purchased 1.5M 10/06
7371 Rancho Catalina 1.575 11/07 purchased 1.573 6/05

So what does this tell us? Well not much I guess… certainly not enough to draw major conclusions. I guess we will see in a few years. One thing to note… I did the search for homes back to 1999 but as you can see, all of the sales were in 2007 except for 1 transaction. So clearly 2007 was the year distress hit 92127. Let’s see if 2008 and beyond match the 07 numbers.

SD Realtor

[SD Realtor]

Tough call on both sides guys. Personally I am in the middle of the road. I don’t think we will ever see some of the pricing suggestions that some have posted for 4S but that is my own simpleton opinion. As usual my caviot is jobs…. we get lots of layoffs then I will sing a different tune. That happens I have a feeling alot of posters and lurkers alike here may be kind of bummed.

Anyways I tried a little searching to see what the facts say. ocrenter you find gems man… I think I still owe you a title search of the cat with 9 lives. Post me that address if you can again.

So I went to the MLS and did a string search on solds in 92127. I searched for both lender and short in the remarks field and the confidential remarks field to see what came up. Not nearly as many properties as I thought would come up came up so I am wondering what I missed. Anyways here were the findings. I also only captured homes built since 1999.

Confidential Remarks = bank, lender, reo, short, foreclosure

9969 fieldthorn sold 12/07 498 purchased 2/07 558
10019 fieldthorn sold 8/06 535 purchased 3/06 605
10420 paradiso sold 600 11/07 purchased 5/06 706.5
15694 new park sold 680 7/07 purchased 11/06 824
17019 sienna ridge sold 870 9/07 purchased 1.064M 3/05
15225 dapple gray sold 905 6/07 purchased unknown
14416 rock rose sold 1.238m 4/07 purchased 1.244 9/06

Remarks = bank,lender,reo,short,foreclosure

9756 fieldthorn sold 485 5/07 purchased unknown
16546 Manassas sold 6/07 520 purchased 590 3/06
16413 Camelas sold 530 1/08 purchased 600 6/06
9741 Tallus Glen sold 559 10/07 purchased unknown
16744 Saintsbury Glen sold 552 11/07 purchased 765 8/06
16471 Calloway sold 569 8/07 purchased 615 4/06
16652 Honeybrook sold 597.5 6/07 purchased 750 10/05
10228 Lone Dove sold 789k 11/07 purchased 1.015M 4/06

**Recall this home was discussed here. It was the drug home and it went for full asking price.
7553 Via Vivaldi sold 825 10/07 purchased 642 7/03 (ATM)
10230 Sienna Hills sold 837 12/07 purchased 1.063 4/06
10219 Camino San Thomas sold 850 12/07 purchased unknown
14444 Rock Rose sold 905 10/07 purchased 1.365 4/06
9714 Fox Valley sold 920 8/07 purchased unknown
14445 Caminito Lazanja 1.089 8/07 purchased 1.5M 10/06
7371 Rancho Catalina 1.575 11/07 purchased 1.573 6/05

So what does this tell us? Well not much I guess… certainly not enough to draw major conclusions. I guess we will see in a few years. One thing to note… I did the search for homes back to 1999 but as you can see, all of the sales were in 2007 except for 1 transaction. So clearly 2007 was the year distress hit 92127. Let’s see if 2008 and beyond match the 07 numbers.

SD Realtor

[SD Realtor]

Tough call on both sides guys. Personally I am in the middle of the road. I don’t think we will ever see some of the pricing suggestions that some have posted for 4S but that is my own simpleton opinion. As usual my caviot is jobs…. we get lots of layoffs then I will sing a different tune. That happens I have a feeling alot of posters and lurkers alike here may be kind of bummed.

Anyways I tried a little searching to see what the facts say. ocrenter you find gems man… I think I still owe you a title search of the cat with 9 lives. Post me that address if you can again.

So I went to the MLS and did a string search on solds in 92127. I searched for both lender and short in the remarks field and the confidential remarks field to see what came up. Not nearly as many properties as I thought would come up came up so I am wondering what I missed. Anyways here were the findings. I also only captured homes built since 1999.

Confidential Remarks = bank, lender, reo, short, foreclosure

9969 fieldthorn sold 12/07 498 purchased 2/07 558
10019 fieldthorn sold 8/06 535 purchased 3/06 605
10420 paradiso sold 600 11/07 purchased 5/06 706.5
15694 new park sold 680 7/07 purchased 11/06 824
17019 sienna ridge sold 870 9/07 purchased 1.064M 3/05
15225 dapple gray sold 905 6/07 purchased unknown
14416 rock rose sold 1.238m 4/07 purchased 1.244 9/06

Remarks = bank,lender,reo,short,foreclosure

9756 fieldthorn sold 485 5/07 purchased unknown
16546 Manassas sold 6/07 520 purchased 590 3/06
16413 Camelas sold 530 1/08 purchased 600 6/06
9741 Tallus Glen sold 559 10/07 purchased unknown
16744 Saintsbury Glen sold 552 11/07 purchased 765 8/06
16471 Calloway sold 569 8/07 purchased 615 4/06
16652 Honeybrook sold 597.5 6/07 purchased 750 10/05
10228 Lone Dove sold 789k 11/07 purchased 1.015M 4/06

**Recall this home was discussed here. It was the drug home and it went for full asking price.
7553 Via Vivaldi sold 825 10/07 purchased 642 7/03 (ATM)
10230 Sienna Hills sold 837 12/07 purchased 1.063 4/06
10219 Camino San Thomas sold 850 12/07 purchased unknown
14444 Rock Rose sold 905 10/07 purchased 1.365 4/06
9714 Fox Valley sold 920 8/07 purchased unknown
14445 Caminito Lazanja 1.089 8/07 purchased 1.5M 10/06
7371 Rancho Catalina 1.575 11/07 purchased 1.573 6/05

So what does this tell us? Well not much I guess… certainly not enough to draw major conclusions. I guess we will see in a few years. One thing to note… I did the search for homes back to 1999 but as you can see, all of the sales were in 2007 except for 1 transaction. So clearly 2007 was the year distress hit 92127. Let’s see if 2008 and beyond match the 07 numbers.

SD Realtor

[SD Realtor]

Tough call on both sides guys. Personally I am in the middle of the road. I don’t think we will ever see some of the pricing suggestions that some have posted for 4S but that is my own simpleton opinion. As usual my caviot is jobs…. we get lots of layoffs then I will sing a different tune. That happens I have a feeling alot of posters and lurkers alike here may be kind of bummed.

Anyways I tried a little searching to see what the facts say. ocrenter you find gems man… I think I still owe you a title search of the cat with 9 lives. Post me that address if you can again.

So I went to the MLS and did a string search on solds in 92127. I searched for both lender and short in the remarks field and the confidential remarks field to see what came up. Not nearly as many properties as I thought would come up came up so I am wondering what I missed. Anyways here were the findings. I also only captured homes built since 1999.

Confidential Remarks = bank, lender, reo, short, foreclosure

9969 fieldthorn sold 12/07 498 purchased 2/07 558
10019 fieldthorn sold 8/06 535 purchased 3/06 605
10420 paradiso sold 600 11/07 purchased 5/06 706.5
15694 new park sold 680 7/07 purchased 11/06 824
17019 sienna ridge sold 870 9/07 purchased 1.064M 3/05
15225 dapple gray sold 905 6/07 purchased unknown
14416 rock rose sold 1.238m 4/07 purchased 1.244 9/06

Remarks = bank,lender,reo,short,foreclosure

9756 fieldthorn sold 485 5/07 purchased unknown
16546 Manassas sold 6/07 520 purchased 590 3/06
16413 Camelas sold 530 1/08 purchased 600 6/06
9741 Tallus Glen sold 559 10/07 purchased unknown
16744 Saintsbury Glen sold 552 11/07 purchased 765 8/06
16471 Calloway sold 569 8/07 purchased 615 4/06
16652 Honeybrook sold 597.5 6/07 purchased 750 10/05
10228 Lone Dove sold 789k 11/07 purchased 1.015M 4/06

**Recall this home was discussed here. It was the drug home and it went for full asking price.
7553 Via Vivaldi sold 825 10/07 purchased 642 7/03 (ATM)
10230 Sienna Hills sold 837 12/07 purchased 1.063 4/06
10219 Camino San Thomas sold 850 12/07 purchased unknown
14444 Rock Rose sold 905 10/07 purchased 1.365 4/06
9714 Fox Valley sold 920 8/07 purchased unknown
14445 Caminito Lazanja 1.089 8/07 purchased 1.5M 10/06
7371 Rancho Catalina 1.575 11/07 purchased 1.573 6/05

So what does this tell us? Well not much I guess… certainly not enough to draw major conclusions. I guess we will see in a few years. One thing to note… I did the search for homes back to 1999 but as you can see, all of the sales were in 2007 except for 1 transaction. So clearly 2007 was the year distress hit 92127. Let’s see if 2008 and beyond match the 07 numbers.

SD Realtor

[Eugene]

Most of sub-700k homes appear to be condos. Just last month someone paid 498k for a 1700 s.f. condo in 4S ranch. Does not inspire confidence in imminent major declines. 10228 Lone Dove (sold 789k 11/07) is the cheapest “real” big detached house.

What seems to be happening from your numbers is that there is some degree of contraction at the extreme upper end. So, houses that were outrageously expensive (900K+) are becoming simply too expensive (700-800K) but the magic 700K barrier can’t be broken.

I wonder what kinds of people are buying all those houses.

They can’t all be move-up buyers, can they?

Do we have enough people who can really afford 100K downpayments, 600K fixed-rate mortgages, 7K/year property taxes, and 5K/year mello-roos?

[Eugene]

Most of sub-700k homes appear to be condos. Just last month someone paid 498k for a 1700 s.f. condo in 4S ranch. Does not inspire confidence in imminent major declines. 10228 Lone Dove (sold 789k 11/07) is the cheapest “real” big detached house.

What seems to be happening from your numbers is that there is some degree of contraction at the extreme upper end. So, houses that were outrageously expensive (900K+) are becoming simply too expensive (700-800K) but the magic 700K barrier can’t be broken.

I wonder what kinds of people are buying all those houses.

They can’t all be move-up buyers, can they?

Do we have enough people who can really afford 100K downpayments, 600K fixed-rate mortgages, 7K/year property taxes, and 5K/year mello-roos?

[Author]

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