4S Ranch–Builders not negotiating

[Eugene]

The homes in 4S are in the middle pricing tier of the Case-Schiller index. The median pricing for that index is comprised of high and lows throughout the region. The homes in 4S and other nearby communities obviously represent the most desirable end of that pricing tier.

Some smaller homes in 4S may fall into the middle tier, but most of 4S is obviously high tier. Case-Shiller defines high tier as houses worth over $629470. Right now I see 7 listings below 600k, 43 listings in 600k-800k range, and 23 listings above 800k.

Being high tier, 4S is doing exactly what it’s supposed to do. Subprime was not a factor, neg-am time hasn’t come yet, and 100% financing was not widespread, therefore there aren’t that many foreclosures and distressed sales. Apparent stability of the market creates a (wrong) impression that there was no bubble in 4S and keeps the idea of homeownership in 4S attractive.

Mid-’07 jump in jumbo rates is the main reason why we’re seeing any high-tier depreciation. On top of that, collapsing prices of lower tiers reduce the pool of potential buyers and lead to slower sales. That is a slow mechanism. It may strengthen as the gap increases. By my calculations, we’ve crossed long-term equilibrium price ratios in late ’07. Further declines in lower tiers should create increasing drag on 4S.

We may see some interesting changes in buyer attitudes (and thus prices) if Mira Mesa sinks another 10% by the end of this spring buying season. Real fun will start by the end of ’09 as bubble neg-ams start to reset.

Feel free to substitute “Carmel Valley” and “Carlsbad” for “4S”.

[Werewolf]

Carmel Valley is a bit soul-less (I live in it). I think people who live here buy into the status quo and are affected by their neighbors…so you lease the Lexus (b/c you can
t buy it) and you join the healthclub and that is your life…

[Werewolf]

Carmel Valley is a bit soul-less (I live in it). I think people who live here buy into the status quo and are affected by their neighbors…so you lease the Lexus (b/c you can
t buy it) and you join the healthclub and that is your life…

[Werewolf]

Carmel Valley is a bit soul-less (I live in it). I think people who live here buy into the status quo and are affected by their neighbors…so you lease the Lexus (b/c you can
t buy it) and you join the healthclub and that is your life…

[Werewolf]

Carmel Valley is a bit soul-less (I live in it). I think people who live here buy into the status quo and are affected by their neighbors…so you lease the Lexus (b/c you can
t buy it) and you join the healthclub and that is your life…

[Werewolf]

Carmel Valley is a bit soul-less (I live in it). I think people who live here buy into the status quo and are affected by their neighbors…so you lease the Lexus (b/c you can
t buy it) and you join the healthclub and that is your life…

[Aecetia]

Foreclosure Ranch? Excerpts from “It’s not over…”

“Of course, all those people stuck between rising mortgages and falling prices are free to follow Paulson’s advice: Keep making payments on an outsized mortgage, and take a bullet for the greater economic good. Fortunately for them, and perhaps unfortunately for the economy, a lot of them will come to the realization that they just don’t have to.”

Mark Gimein is a New York-based writer.

Article URL: http://www.slate.com/id/2188982/

[Aecetia]

Foreclosure Ranch? Excerpts from “It’s not over…”

“Of course, all those people stuck between rising mortgages and falling prices are free to follow Paulson’s advice: Keep making payments on an outsized mortgage, and take a bullet for the greater economic good. Fortunately for them, and perhaps unfortunately for the economy, a lot of them will come to the realization that they just don’t have to.”

Mark Gimein is a New York-based writer.

Article URL: http://www.slate.com/id/2188982/

[Aecetia]

Foreclosure Ranch? Excerpts from “It’s not over…”

“Of course, all those people stuck between rising mortgages and falling prices are free to follow Paulson’s advice: Keep making payments on an outsized mortgage, and take a bullet for the greater economic good. Fortunately for them, and perhaps unfortunately for the economy, a lot of them will come to the realization that they just don’t have to.”

Mark Gimein is a New York-based writer.

Article URL: http://www.slate.com/id/2188982/

[Aecetia]

Foreclosure Ranch? Excerpts from “It’s not over…”

“Of course, all those people stuck between rising mortgages and falling prices are free to follow Paulson’s advice: Keep making payments on an outsized mortgage, and take a bullet for the greater economic good. Fortunately for them, and perhaps unfortunately for the economy, a lot of them will come to the realization that they just don’t have to.”

Mark Gimein is a New York-based writer.

Article URL: http://www.slate.com/id/2188982/

[Aecetia]

Foreclosure Ranch? Excerpts from “It’s not over…”

“Of course, all those people stuck between rising mortgages and falling prices are free to follow Paulson’s advice: Keep making payments on an outsized mortgage, and take a bullet for the greater economic good. Fortunately for them, and perhaps unfortunately for the economy, a lot of them will come to the realization that they just don’t have to.”

Mark Gimein is a New York-based writer.

Article URL: http://www.slate.com/id/2188982/

[jpinpb]

I was on SPH mailing list from way back when they first started developing in 4$. Checked my mailbox and found a flyer they sent to me which said (tried not to panic, cause it’s your last chance, you know), “Your chance to live in 4S Ranch. Don’t miss your chance….blah, blah….top selling communities…blah, blah, stylish designer upgrades, Gianni’s low monthly payments, low maintenance lifestyle, blah, blah.”
15k credit towards interest rate buydown, closing costs, designer upgrades when finance w/Standard Pacific Mortgage.

Also said, “Ask about 0 down payment program (FHA loan w/NEHEMIAH gift funds)”

Fine print, in lieu of 15k, FHA 97% w/3% down through Nehemiah.

Sounds like the builders are coming around some. The interest rate buydown sounds vaguely familiar to back in 1989/90 when developers were doing that.

Also got a very similar flyer for Standard Pacific Homes for Del Servitude, same deal 15k or 0 down FHA/Nehemiah, this for Bridgewalk.

BTW, is it just me, or does 588,900k seem high for those claustrophic Bridgewalk row houses out in the sticks?

I understand many are interested in 4S and Del Sur and at one time I checked there(can’t believe it) (still getting flyers) but IMO still way too high, low 400k for Gianni/Joke townhomes, not to mention HOA and MR.

[jpinpb]

I was on SPH mailing list from way back when they first started developing in 4$. Checked my mailbox and found a flyer they sent to me which said (tried not to panic, cause it’s your last chance, you know), “Your chance to live in 4S Ranch. Don’t miss your chance….blah, blah….top selling communities…blah, blah, stylish designer upgrades, Gianni’s low monthly payments, low maintenance lifestyle, blah, blah.”
15k credit towards interest rate buydown, closing costs, designer upgrades when finance w/Standard Pacific Mortgage.

Also said, “Ask about 0 down payment program (FHA loan w/NEHEMIAH gift funds)”

Fine print, in lieu of 15k, FHA 97% w/3% down through Nehemiah.

Sounds like the builders are coming around some. The interest rate buydown sounds vaguely familiar to back in 1989/90 when developers were doing that.

Also got a very similar flyer for Standard Pacific Homes for Del Servitude, same deal 15k or 0 down FHA/Nehemiah, this for Bridgewalk.

BTW, is it just me, or does 588,900k seem high for those claustrophic Bridgewalk row houses out in the sticks?

I understand many are interested in 4S and Del Sur and at one time I checked there(can’t believe it) (still getting flyers) but IMO still way too high, low 400k for Gianni/Joke townhomes, not to mention HOA and MR.

[jpinpb]

I was on SPH mailing list from way back when they first started developing in 4$. Checked my mailbox and found a flyer they sent to me which said (tried not to panic, cause it’s your last chance, you know), “Your chance to live in 4S Ranch. Don’t miss your chance….blah, blah….top selling communities…blah, blah, stylish designer upgrades, Gianni’s low monthly payments, low maintenance lifestyle, blah, blah.”
15k credit towards interest rate buydown, closing costs, designer upgrades when finance w/Standard Pacific Mortgage.

Also said, “Ask about 0 down payment program (FHA loan w/NEHEMIAH gift funds)”

Fine print, in lieu of 15k, FHA 97% w/3% down through Nehemiah.

Sounds like the builders are coming around some. The interest rate buydown sounds vaguely familiar to back in 1989/90 when developers were doing that.

Also got a very similar flyer for Standard Pacific Homes for Del Servitude, same deal 15k or 0 down FHA/Nehemiah, this for Bridgewalk.

BTW, is it just me, or does 588,900k seem high for those claustrophic Bridgewalk row houses out in the sticks?

I understand many are interested in 4S and Del Sur and at one time I checked there(can’t believe it) (still getting flyers) but IMO still way too high, low 400k for Gianni/Joke townhomes, not to mention HOA and MR.

[jpinpb]

I was on SPH mailing list from way back when they first started developing in 4$. Checked my mailbox and found a flyer they sent to me which said (tried not to panic, cause it’s your last chance, you know), “Your chance to live in 4S Ranch. Don’t miss your chance….blah, blah….top selling communities…blah, blah, stylish designer upgrades, Gianni’s low monthly payments, low maintenance lifestyle, blah, blah.”
15k credit towards interest rate buydown, closing costs, designer upgrades when finance w/Standard Pacific Mortgage.

Also said, “Ask about 0 down payment program (FHA loan w/NEHEMIAH gift funds)”

Fine print, in lieu of 15k, FHA 97% w/3% down through Nehemiah.

Sounds like the builders are coming around some. The interest rate buydown sounds vaguely familiar to back in 1989/90 when developers were doing that.

Also got a very similar flyer for Standard Pacific Homes for Del Servitude, same deal 15k or 0 down FHA/Nehemiah, this for Bridgewalk.

BTW, is it just me, or does 588,900k seem high for those claustrophic Bridgewalk row houses out in the sticks?

I understand many are interested in 4S and Del Sur and at one time I checked there(can’t believe it) (still getting flyers) but IMO still way too high, low 400k for Gianni/Joke townhomes, not to mention HOA and MR.

[Author]

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