4S Ranch–Builders not negotiating

[EconProf]

BobS
5YearWaiter: Sorry, but I just can’t understand your posts. Please proofread before hitting send. We really do want to know your thoughts but can’t figure them out.

[4Sbuyer2002]

Yea . . . but the FACT remains 1) Himmel’s home is NOT part of 4S Ranch. It is perched (was perched) on a hillside surrounded by brush in all directions. A hill above and outside 4S Ranch. His home was not built by 4S builders and was not held to the strict standards touted (not by me) but by the Ranch Santa Fe Fire Marshall himself. Himmel’s home is a complete apples and oranges fallacious analogy. Second fact, the northern edge of 4S Ranch was in the direct path of the fire and YET . . . not one home was even damaged. Many beyond (50+) in Rancho Santa Fe burned to the ground. Third fact, the fire Marshall of Rancho Santa Fe advises people to NOT EVACUATE but to STAY IN YOUR HOME. IF . . . you live in a designated “Shelter in Place” community like 4S Ranch. Pine away all you want about “hot fires” . . . etc. 4S Ranch and the other communities built with the same standards are very well protected from wildfires. If they were in such danger of from wildfires you would think that a) when the worst wildfires in history hit So. California, and b) the homes in northern 4S are in the direct path of said “worst fire” that c) at least one home would be at least damaged . . . right??? But . . . none were. All the proof you need combined with the wise wisdom of a true wildfire expert (Rancho Santa Fe Fire Marshall) that 4S Ranch is as safe as you can be from wildfires AND that it is indeed safer to stay in your home than evacuate. Not my opinion but the facts born by history and the advice of the fire marshall.

grateful owner . . . .

[4Sbuyer2002]

Yea . . . but the FACT remains 1) Himmel’s home is NOT part of 4S Ranch. It is perched (was perched) on a hillside surrounded by brush in all directions. A hill above and outside 4S Ranch. His home was not built by 4S builders and was not held to the strict standards touted (not by me) but by the Ranch Santa Fe Fire Marshall himself. Himmel’s home is a complete apples and oranges fallacious analogy. Second fact, the northern edge of 4S Ranch was in the direct path of the fire and YET . . . not one home was even damaged. Many beyond (50+) in Rancho Santa Fe burned to the ground. Third fact, the fire Marshall of Rancho Santa Fe advises people to NOT EVACUATE but to STAY IN YOUR HOME. IF . . . you live in a designated “Shelter in Place” community like 4S Ranch. Pine away all you want about “hot fires” . . . etc. 4S Ranch and the other communities built with the same standards are very well protected from wildfires. If they were in such danger of from wildfires you would think that a) when the worst wildfires in history hit So. California, and b) the homes in northern 4S are in the direct path of said “worst fire” that c) at least one home would be at least damaged . . . right??? But . . . none were. All the proof you need combined with the wise wisdom of a true wildfire expert (Rancho Santa Fe Fire Marshall) that 4S Ranch is as safe as you can be from wildfires AND that it is indeed safer to stay in your home than evacuate. Not my opinion but the facts born by history and the advice of the fire marshall.

grateful owner . . . .

[4Sbuyer2002]

Yea . . . but the FACT remains 1) Himmel’s home is NOT part of 4S Ranch. It is perched (was perched) on a hillside surrounded by brush in all directions. A hill above and outside 4S Ranch. His home was not built by 4S builders and was not held to the strict standards touted (not by me) but by the Ranch Santa Fe Fire Marshall himself. Himmel’s home is a complete apples and oranges fallacious analogy. Second fact, the northern edge of 4S Ranch was in the direct path of the fire and YET . . . not one home was even damaged. Many beyond (50+) in Rancho Santa Fe burned to the ground. Third fact, the fire Marshall of Rancho Santa Fe advises people to NOT EVACUATE but to STAY IN YOUR HOME. IF . . . you live in a designated “Shelter in Place” community like 4S Ranch. Pine away all you want about “hot fires” . . . etc. 4S Ranch and the other communities built with the same standards are very well protected from wildfires. If they were in such danger of from wildfires you would think that a) when the worst wildfires in history hit So. California, and b) the homes in northern 4S are in the direct path of said “worst fire” that c) at least one home would be at least damaged . . . right??? But . . . none were. All the proof you need combined with the wise wisdom of a true wildfire expert (Rancho Santa Fe Fire Marshall) that 4S Ranch is as safe as you can be from wildfires AND that it is indeed safer to stay in your home than evacuate. Not my opinion but the facts born by history and the advice of the fire marshall.

grateful owner . . . .

[4Sbuyer2002]

Yea . . . but the FACT remains 1) Himmel’s home is NOT part of 4S Ranch. It is perched (was perched) on a hillside surrounded by brush in all directions. A hill above and outside 4S Ranch. His home was not built by 4S builders and was not held to the strict standards touted (not by me) but by the Ranch Santa Fe Fire Marshall himself. Himmel’s home is a complete apples and oranges fallacious analogy. Second fact, the northern edge of 4S Ranch was in the direct path of the fire and YET . . . not one home was even damaged. Many beyond (50+) in Rancho Santa Fe burned to the ground. Third fact, the fire Marshall of Rancho Santa Fe advises people to NOT EVACUATE but to STAY IN YOUR HOME. IF . . . you live in a designated “Shelter in Place” community like 4S Ranch. Pine away all you want about “hot fires” . . . etc. 4S Ranch and the other communities built with the same standards are very well protected from wildfires. If they were in such danger of from wildfires you would think that a) when the worst wildfires in history hit So. California, and b) the homes in northern 4S are in the direct path of said “worst fire” that c) at least one home would be at least damaged . . . right??? But . . . none were. All the proof you need combined with the wise wisdom of a true wildfire expert (Rancho Santa Fe Fire Marshall) that 4S Ranch is as safe as you can be from wildfires AND that it is indeed safer to stay in your home than evacuate. Not my opinion but the facts born by history and the advice of the fire marshall.

grateful owner . . . .

[4Sbuyer2002]

Yea . . . but the FACT remains 1) Himmel’s home is NOT part of 4S Ranch. It is perched (was perched) on a hillside surrounded by brush in all directions. A hill above and outside 4S Ranch. His home was not built by 4S builders and was not held to the strict standards touted (not by me) but by the Ranch Santa Fe Fire Marshall himself. Himmel’s home is a complete apples and oranges fallacious analogy. Second fact, the northern edge of 4S Ranch was in the direct path of the fire and YET . . . not one home was even damaged. Many beyond (50+) in Rancho Santa Fe burned to the ground. Third fact, the fire Marshall of Rancho Santa Fe advises people to NOT EVACUATE but to STAY IN YOUR HOME. IF . . . you live in a designated “Shelter in Place” community like 4S Ranch. Pine away all you want about “hot fires” . . . etc. 4S Ranch and the other communities built with the same standards are very well protected from wildfires. If they were in such danger of from wildfires you would think that a) when the worst wildfires in history hit So. California, and b) the homes in northern 4S are in the direct path of said “worst fire” that c) at least one home would be at least damaged . . . right??? But . . . none were. All the proof you need combined with the wise wisdom of a true wildfire expert (Rancho Santa Fe Fire Marshall) that 4S Ranch is as safe as you can be from wildfires AND that it is indeed safer to stay in your home than evacuate. Not my opinion but the facts born by history and the advice of the fire marshall.

grateful owner . . . .

[LAAFTERHOURS]

4s Renter

http://sandiego.craigslist.org/nsd/rfs/635497937.html

Prarie Springs Corner lot up for 565K. People were trying to get 700 for these last year. Another critical sale for the general area over there, esp since Garden Gate has come close to breaking the 500K barrier.

Also, all the idiots on Fieldthorn still trying to sell those 1500 sq ft condos with mutual driveways for 550 need a reality check. Their neighbors have sold in the high 400s – I assume all of those will be owned by a bank at some point. Same goes for the ones on Manassas and the ones on tallus and saintsbury.

[LAAFTERHOURS]

4s Renter

http://sandiego.craigslist.org/nsd/rfs/635497937.html

Prarie Springs Corner lot up for 565K. People were trying to get 700 for these last year. Another critical sale for the general area over there, esp since Garden Gate has come close to breaking the 500K barrier.

Also, all the idiots on Fieldthorn still trying to sell those 1500 sq ft condos with mutual driveways for 550 need a reality check. Their neighbors have sold in the high 400s – I assume all of those will be owned by a bank at some point. Same goes for the ones on Manassas and the ones on tallus and saintsbury.

[LAAFTERHOURS]

4s Renter

http://sandiego.craigslist.org/nsd/rfs/635497937.html

Prarie Springs Corner lot up for 565K. People were trying to get 700 for these last year. Another critical sale for the general area over there, esp since Garden Gate has come close to breaking the 500K barrier.

Also, all the idiots on Fieldthorn still trying to sell those 1500 sq ft condos with mutual driveways for 550 need a reality check. Their neighbors have sold in the high 400s – I assume all of those will be owned by a bank at some point. Same goes for the ones on Manassas and the ones on tallus and saintsbury.

[LAAFTERHOURS]

4s Renter

http://sandiego.craigslist.org/nsd/rfs/635497937.html

Prarie Springs Corner lot up for 565K. People were trying to get 700 for these last year. Another critical sale for the general area over there, esp since Garden Gate has come close to breaking the 500K barrier.

Also, all the idiots on Fieldthorn still trying to sell those 1500 sq ft condos with mutual driveways for 550 need a reality check. Their neighbors have sold in the high 400s – I assume all of those will be owned by a bank at some point. Same goes for the ones on Manassas and the ones on tallus and saintsbury.

[LAAFTERHOURS]

4s Renter

http://sandiego.craigslist.org/nsd/rfs/635497937.html

Prarie Springs Corner lot up for 565K. People were trying to get 700 for these last year. Another critical sale for the general area over there, esp since Garden Gate has come close to breaking the 500K barrier.

Also, all the idiots on Fieldthorn still trying to sell those 1500 sq ft condos with mutual driveways for 550 need a reality check. Their neighbors have sold in the high 400s – I assume all of those will be owned by a bank at some point. Same goes for the ones on Manassas and the ones on tallus and saintsbury.

[Eugene]

The homes in 4S are in the middle pricing tier of the Case-Schiller index. The median pricing for that index is comprised of high and lows throughout the region. The homes in 4S and other nearby communities obviously represent the most desirable end of that pricing tier.

Some smaller homes in 4S may fall into the middle tier, but most of 4S is obviously high tier. Case-Shiller defines high tier as houses worth over $629470. Right now I see 7 listings below 600k, 43 listings in 600k-800k range, and 23 listings above 800k.

Being high tier, 4S is doing exactly what it’s supposed to do. Subprime was not a factor, neg-am time hasn’t come yet, and 100% financing was not widespread, therefore there aren’t that many foreclosures and distressed sales. Apparent stability of the market creates a (wrong) impression that there was no bubble in 4S and keeps the idea of homeownership in 4S attractive.

Mid-’07 jump in jumbo rates is the main reason why we’re seeing any high-tier depreciation. On top of that, collapsing prices of lower tiers reduce the pool of potential buyers and lead to slower sales. That is a slow mechanism. It may strengthen as the gap increases. By my calculations, we’ve crossed long-term equilibrium price ratios in late ’07. Further declines in lower tiers should create increasing drag on 4S.

We may see some interesting changes in buyer attitudes (and thus prices) if Mira Mesa sinks another 10% by the end of this spring buying season. Real fun will start by the end of ’09 as bubble neg-ams start to reset.

Feel free to substitute “Carmel Valley” and “Carlsbad” for “4S”.

[Eugene]

The homes in 4S are in the middle pricing tier of the Case-Schiller index. The median pricing for that index is comprised of high and lows throughout the region. The homes in 4S and other nearby communities obviously represent the most desirable end of that pricing tier.

Some smaller homes in 4S may fall into the middle tier, but most of 4S is obviously high tier. Case-Shiller defines high tier as houses worth over $629470. Right now I see 7 listings below 600k, 43 listings in 600k-800k range, and 23 listings above 800k.

Being high tier, 4S is doing exactly what it’s supposed to do. Subprime was not a factor, neg-am time hasn’t come yet, and 100% financing was not widespread, therefore there aren’t that many foreclosures and distressed sales. Apparent stability of the market creates a (wrong) impression that there was no bubble in 4S and keeps the idea of homeownership in 4S attractive.

Mid-’07 jump in jumbo rates is the main reason why we’re seeing any high-tier depreciation. On top of that, collapsing prices of lower tiers reduce the pool of potential buyers and lead to slower sales. That is a slow mechanism. It may strengthen as the gap increases. By my calculations, we’ve crossed long-term equilibrium price ratios in late ’07. Further declines in lower tiers should create increasing drag on 4S.

We may see some interesting changes in buyer attitudes (and thus prices) if Mira Mesa sinks another 10% by the end of this spring buying season. Real fun will start by the end of ’09 as bubble neg-ams start to reset.

Feel free to substitute “Carmel Valley” and “Carlsbad” for “4S”.

[Eugene]

The homes in 4S are in the middle pricing tier of the Case-Schiller index. The median pricing for that index is comprised of high and lows throughout the region. The homes in 4S and other nearby communities obviously represent the most desirable end of that pricing tier.

Some smaller homes in 4S may fall into the middle tier, but most of 4S is obviously high tier. Case-Shiller defines high tier as houses worth over $629470. Right now I see 7 listings below 600k, 43 listings in 600k-800k range, and 23 listings above 800k.

Being high tier, 4S is doing exactly what it’s supposed to do. Subprime was not a factor, neg-am time hasn’t come yet, and 100% financing was not widespread, therefore there aren’t that many foreclosures and distressed sales. Apparent stability of the market creates a (wrong) impression that there was no bubble in 4S and keeps the idea of homeownership in 4S attractive.

Mid-’07 jump in jumbo rates is the main reason why we’re seeing any high-tier depreciation. On top of that, collapsing prices of lower tiers reduce the pool of potential buyers and lead to slower sales. That is a slow mechanism. It may strengthen as the gap increases. By my calculations, we’ve crossed long-term equilibrium price ratios in late ’07. Further declines in lower tiers should create increasing drag on 4S.

We may see some interesting changes in buyer attitudes (and thus prices) if Mira Mesa sinks another 10% by the end of this spring buying season. Real fun will start by the end of ’09 as bubble neg-ams start to reset.

Feel free to substitute “Carmel Valley” and “Carlsbad” for “4S”.

[Eugene]

The homes in 4S are in the middle pricing tier of the Case-Schiller index. The median pricing for that index is comprised of high and lows throughout the region. The homes in 4S and other nearby communities obviously represent the most desirable end of that pricing tier.

Some smaller homes in 4S may fall into the middle tier, but most of 4S is obviously high tier. Case-Shiller defines high tier as houses worth over $629470. Right now I see 7 listings below 600k, 43 listings in 600k-800k range, and 23 listings above 800k.

Being high tier, 4S is doing exactly what it’s supposed to do. Subprime was not a factor, neg-am time hasn’t come yet, and 100% financing was not widespread, therefore there aren’t that many foreclosures and distressed sales. Apparent stability of the market creates a (wrong) impression that there was no bubble in 4S and keeps the idea of homeownership in 4S attractive.

Mid-’07 jump in jumbo rates is the main reason why we’re seeing any high-tier depreciation. On top of that, collapsing prices of lower tiers reduce the pool of potential buyers and lead to slower sales. That is a slow mechanism. It may strengthen as the gap increases. By my calculations, we’ve crossed long-term equilibrium price ratios in late ’07. Further declines in lower tiers should create increasing drag on 4S.

We may see some interesting changes in buyer attitudes (and thus prices) if Mira Mesa sinks another 10% by the end of this spring buying season. Real fun will start by the end of ’09 as bubble neg-ams start to reset.

Feel free to substitute “Carmel Valley” and “Carlsbad” for “4S”.

[Author]

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