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February 21, 2007 at 4:06 PM in reply to: Realtor Buddy wants to list my home at an inflated price to meet potential clients #45960
uncle_git
ParticipantWhats especially sickening about this is I bet NEW were well aware of the situation for the last 3 qtrs.
CFO and CTO’s don’t have to sign off on quarterly reports – now is their end of year report, that due to Sarbanes Oxley has to be signed off by the CFO and CEO under penalty of law.
They hid their situation from the shareholders for 3 qtrs and only let it slip when they could face criminal charges for hiding it longer.
ParticipantConsidering we are dropping thus far at alsmot 1% a month – no I don’t think it’s likely.
Bear in mind these falls have been happening in primo selling season where sellers are still in denial – now we are into the winter wind down and panic will be starting to settle in for many people who have the sword of Damocles hanging over their heads in the form of ARM adjustments.
Add into that the first waves of ARM adjustments coming this winter / next spring – I think this thing is going to snowball – I suspect it’ll drop 10% YOY by December and accelerate down in the spring.
Also the Japanese had these things called “Savings” that are lacking in US financial culture – no wiggle room here to try and ride out the wave that’s coming.
ParticipantIt’s a plea to stop the fed raising rates.
All of it’s geared towards saying “Voters will lose their homes unless rates stop rising”
They are trying to get political pressure applied to the Fed to stop the rate hikes.
ParticipantGiven we are 6% down from peak in less around 7 or 8 months I suspect this bust will be significantly larger / more brutal than history shows busts being.
If we continue to drop at this rate it’ll be 10% down in year one alone – and suicide mortgages have only started to adjust.
Previous corrections took 3 years to drop that much….
ParticipantThat’s pretty ironic in it’s timing – Pulte just warned and reduced outlook by 25% for the year….
ParticipantPersonally I think the speed at which the market is turning is a telling sign of how fast it’s going to fall. I’m pretty bearinsh – but I’ve been surprised at how quickly inventory has built and how fast people’s opinions are changing on the topic of housing.
The 50 year isn’t really going to help – the payment will still be substantially higher than the I/O ARM that people are already struggling with – and the longer people put off getting into a fixed the higher the pain – for some it’s already way too late – foreclosure is inevitable – they just don’t know it yet.
Participant“Kristian Cabuago, a 27-year-old dentist in Tierrasanta, hopes to spend his first night in the first home of his own, a 950-square-foot top-floor condo at 777 Sixth Ave. in the Gaslamp Quarter. It cost him $550,000 and he thinks he timed his purchase just right”
Oh really ?
“For my age group, there’s no way I can lose,” he said. “You can’t ask for more.”
OH REALLY ?????
Don’t look now – re-education in the post.
ParticipantJim – it’s just data.
If you have some local data from your area feel free to post it – the more the merrier IMHO.
ParticipantRather than post cryptic clues to his name – just go ahead and post it.
That way we can avoid dealing with pricks like this.
Once sales continue to plunge realtors will be begging for buyers – let’s make sure people know which ones are honest and which ones are not – as a buyer I don’t want anything to do with someone who won’t show me every house available that meets my criteria.
ParticipantIt seems to dip after the weekend and pickup later in the week – probably people letting listings expire and relisting to get the all important “New on market” tag.
Overall the trend is up and fast.
ParticipantControlling inflation is easy – you just change the inflation basket to include housing instead of rent equivalents in the next year.
Housing will be taking that fast that everything else can be screaming upwards and the basket will still show benign inflation.
Rents when housing is expanding, RE when housing is tanking – that way they can print their way out of this mess and still show inflation as “benign”
ParticipantKeep the updates flowing sdrealtor – it’s fascinating stuff.
To be honest I’m not *that* suprised at the market’s resiliance this early in the cycle.
Right now a lot of people still don’t believe in the bubble and are buying houses – buyers are standing firm on their prices and waiting on the “spring market” to sell their houses.
Which is fine – but it’s not going to clear that inventory before winter that’s for sure – and as the median YOY price trickles down towards 0 or negative it’s going to make more and more buyers hold off.
I suspect panic will start towards the winter slowdown when all that inventory sitting there realize that the market is down YOY and they “have” to get out before winter or more then likely they’ll be waiting for next spring – when prices are constantly falling.
April 17, 2006 at 2:55 PM in reply to: UT Sunday Home Section article “Is there a buble? Do the math” #24299ParticipantWhat sectors of telecomms are you seeing an expansion in at this point BostonAndOC_RE ?
I assume you work for IBM…
ParticipantI can’t see us taking the Japan path for various reasons.
We are significantly more leveraged and open to interest rate shock with the volume of adjustable rate mortgages.
Also the japanese where net savers – we’ve been net debtors for a while now – they had significant reserves to ride out any downturn in their market – most people here have little or none.
I think this bust is going to surprise most people with it’s speed and ferocity – certainly substantially faster than the previous few here in California.
I think the first 3 years will be the most brutal – no idea on when the bottom will be – but the big losses will happen in the first 3 years.
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