[temeculaguy]

Here’s an easy way to figure out all the little details, Just look at the P&I vs. rent. The principle and interest doesn’t take into account the hoa, taxes, maint, ins., etc, but the tax deduction is about equal to all that so just compare the principal and interest to the average rents. When it is an absolute tie with a 20% downpayment it is time to buy, this represents a 20% margin over rent. If rent is 1900/mo then 360k is the correct price using this formula, adjust up and down based on current rents in the chosen area and house size. a purchase price of 600k is justified if rent is $3160, if rent is cheaper, then rent.

[temeculaguy]

dave is right, the only exception is gated communities of SFR’s. Former owner is your community gated? I’m looking at some gated communities and noticed you get less bang for the buck and after looking into it I found out that many gated communities have to maintain their own roads, street lights, etc. And they have to insure those things and for liability. The city or county public works doesn’t help because the public has no access to it so the hoa has to set aside money to repave the streets every few years and you get the luxury of paying for the ungated tract next door’s street in your taxes because you can drive on that street. gated condos don’t get hit as bad because there is less street per residence.

[temeculaguy]

dave is right, the only exception is gated communities of SFR’s. Former owner is your community gated? I’m looking at some gated communities and noticed you get less bang for the buck and after looking into it I found out that many gated communities have to maintain their own roads, street lights, etc. And they have to insure those things and for liability. The city or county public works doesn’t help because the public has no access to it so the hoa has to set aside money to repave the streets every few years and you get the luxury of paying for the ungated tract next door’s street in your taxes because you can drive on that street. gated condos don’t get hit as bad because there is less street per residence.

[temeculaguy]

oops, I corrected a spelling error in my previous and it bumped my post down.

Everything you say is true with the exception of the demographics, you cannot use driveby analysis but you can use school API info taken from the state website to get a decent look at the demographics.

Great Oak High, the South Temecula high school numbers of 1844 students.

African American (not of Hispanic origin) 94
American Indian or Alaska Native 35
Asian 69
Filipino 110
Hispanic or Latino 323
Pacific Islander 16
White (not of Hispanic origin) 1127
Socioeconomically Disadvantaged 114
English Learners 80

While there are many races represented, the demographics are similar to S.D.’s best schools and while it is predominately white, they key stat is the low socioeconomic disadvantaged numbers similar to the the Poway district numbers. But white people lose their houses too so I have no argument that R/E will decline here but it is for reasons other than race.

You can get stats and performance for any school in the state here. An API of 800 or more is excellent and 650 sucks if you are keeping score at home.

http://api.cde.ca.gov/reports/page2.asp?subject=API&level=School&submit1=submit

[temeculaguy]

oops, I corrected a spelling error in my previous and it bumped my post down.

Everything you say is true with the exception of the demographics, you cannot use driveby analysis but you can use school API info taken from the state website to get a decent look at the demographics.

Great Oak High, the South Temecula high school numbers of 1844 students.

African American (not of Hispanic origin) 94
American Indian or Alaska Native 35
Asian 69
Filipino 110
Hispanic or Latino 323
Pacific Islander 16
White (not of Hispanic origin) 1127
Socioeconomically Disadvantaged 114
English Learners 80

While there are many races represented, the demographics are similar to S.D.’s best schools and while it is predominately white, they key stat is the low socioeconomic disadvantaged numbers similar to the the Poway district numbers. But white people lose their houses too so I have no argument that R/E will decline here but it is for reasons other than race.

You can get stats and performance for any school in the state here. An API of 800 or more is excellent and 650 sucks if you are keeping score at home.

http://api.cde.ca.gov/reports/page2.asp?subject=API&level=School&submit1=submit

[temeculaguy]

You may be right GN but there are a few things that I feel are accelerating the decline in my specific target neighborhoods. The artificially high number of forclosures hitting right now because of the Stonewood scam and the media jumping on it as a canary in a coal mine. All of the buildable land in my target area is under construction with about ten tracts in early or middle stages, the final two opened their models yesterday. D.R. horton just opened their development of 400+ homes and they look like they plan to build them all immediately (they are framing more than a 100 without buyers, it is likely they will slash the prices when they get to standing inventory. Resale inventory just hit record highs in my target zip code in my target price. It really feels like the perfect storm that will hit in the next six months, if it takes two years, so be it, but I am watching the clouds closely from here on out.

[temeculaguy]

You may be right GN but there are a few things that I feel are accelerating the decline in my specific target neighborhoods. The artificially high number of forclosures hitting right now because of the Stonewood scam and the media jumping on it as a canary in a coal mine. All of the buildable land in my target area is under construction with about ten tracts in early or middle stages, the final two opened their models yesterday. D.R. horton just opened their development of 400+ homes and they look like they plan to build them all immediately (they are framing more than a 100 without buyers, it is likely they will slash the prices when they get to standing inventory. Resale inventory just hit record highs in my target zip code in my target price. It really feels like the perfect storm that will hit in the next six months, if it takes two years, so be it, but I am watching the clouds closely from here on out.

[temeculaguy]

Nice post gary and some very well thought out advice. I agree that the rent/buy numbers are the most important because the expected appreciation cannot be considered for a few years. The one thing that will save this zip code is it’s demographics. You can get any demographic info you want for free at http://profilewarehouse.sandag.org/

92130’s dominant demographic was 200k+ income earners, nearly double the 150-200k crowd. The median household income is 120k, more than double the county average.

Another thing is that since 2000 it has added very few SFR’s (4% increase in it’s stock over six years) while it’s growth in population was 49.2% in that same period. The dominant growth was in 200k+ earners.

Not to knock El Cajon but it is important to know how much money the people you are competing with have. El Cajon’s dominant demographic was 15-30k household income with 30-45k in a close second, 50k is the median. All prices will suffer but where the residents can still afford to buy, the prices will have more support. Just food for thought but all other costs are constant (food, electricity, cars) so if one areas residents make 2-3x another’s then 2-3x the house prices are actually have more support. these are broad bruch strokes but a guy making 75k buying a house for 400k is in far worse shape than the guy making 200k buying a house for 800k.

[temeculaguy]

Nice post gary and some very well thought out advice. I agree that the rent/buy numbers are the most important because the expected appreciation cannot be considered for a few years. The one thing that will save this zip code is it’s demographics. You can get any demographic info you want for free at http://profilewarehouse.sandag.org/

92130’s dominant demographic was 200k+ income earners, nearly double the 150-200k crowd. The median household income is 120k, more than double the county average.

Another thing is that since 2000 it has added very few SFR’s (4% increase in it’s stock over six years) while it’s growth in population was 49.2% in that same period. The dominant growth was in 200k+ earners.

Not to knock El Cajon but it is important to know how much money the people you are competing with have. El Cajon’s dominant demographic was 15-30k household income with 30-45k in a close second, 50k is the median. All prices will suffer but where the residents can still afford to buy, the prices will have more support. Just food for thought but all other costs are constant (food, electricity, cars) so if one areas residents make 2-3x another’s then 2-3x the house prices are actually have more support. these are broad bruch strokes but a guy making 75k buying a house for 400k is in far worse shape than the guy making 200k buying a house for 800k.

[temeculaguy]

I was about to award round one one my scorecard to sdrealtor but there is a flag on the play. Upon booth review of the instant replay that last sentence about inventory being down and pendings up will cost you 15 yards for an illegal “Bagdhad Bob” comment. Play ball.

I could have taken the round with a three sport reference but I could not dish it up in the form of a haiku so no points for me.

[temeculaguy]

I was about to award round one one my scorecard to sdrealtor but there is a flag on the play. Upon booth review of the instant replay that last sentence about inventory being down and pendings up will cost you 15 yards for an illegal “Bagdhad Bob” comment. Play ball.

I could have taken the round with a three sport reference but I could not dish it up in the form of a haiku so no points for me.

[temeculaguy]

SD you are probably right, my bad. In the future, this is a fairly anonymous forum with mostly grown ups so if anyone wants community info feel free to use more specific terms so I don’t look like an idiot again for misinterpreting the word “diversity.”

In defense of my diatribe, what did socio-economic diversity mean? Or was that code for we will tolerate people with 3 series bmw’s or a c-class mercedes. I’m so bad with code.

[temeculaguy]

SD you are probably right, my bad. In the future, this is a fairly anonymous forum with mostly grown ups so if anyone wants community info feel free to use more specific terms so I don’t look like an idiot again for misinterpreting the word “diversity.”

In defense of my diatribe, what did socio-economic diversity mean? Or was that code for we will tolerate people with 3 series bmw’s or a c-class mercedes. I’m so bad with code.

[temeculaguy]

I am confused about the “only a side yard” from the overhead photo on the link they all look like they have back yards and quite few have pools. Is it that they don’t have much of a front yard? Who uses their front yard anyway?
If there’s no backyard at all then it does affect price because the pool of buyers is smaller for that particular lifestyle.

CV will be one of the last areas to decline and I doubt that will fully materialize in the next 6-12 months, we are still six months out from the height of the resets and even further before the desirable areas feel the effect of the shortage in move-up buyers. The planning commision with jurisdiction over that area is where you can find out what is going to be developed in the future but sdrealtor probably can answer questions about what is in the works for the near future.

[temeculaguy]

I am confused about the “only a side yard” from the overhead photo on the link they all look like they have back yards and quite few have pools. Is it that they don’t have much of a front yard? Who uses their front yard anyway?
If there’s no backyard at all then it does affect price because the pool of buyers is smaller for that particular lifestyle.

CV will be one of the last areas to decline and I doubt that will fully materialize in the next 6-12 months, we are still six months out from the height of the resets and even further before the desirable areas feel the effect of the shortage in move-up buyers. The planning commision with jurisdiction over that area is where you can find out what is going to be developed in the future but sdrealtor probably can answer questions about what is in the works for the near future.

[Author]

Posts