Help from Realtors: what’s my friend’s house worth now?

[sdrealtor]

Round One:

“There is a 5BR/3.5ba/3 car gar 3109 sf in escrow with a range of 950 to 1.05M after only 11 days. My guess would be $1M plus.”

House closed last week for $1,010,000.

I’ll give that round me.

BTW, The inventory of active listings in 92130 is less than half of what it was this time last year while pendings are up over 25%.

[Bugs]

Great, but it’s still not a comp as far as an appraisal would be concerned.

[Bugs]

Great, but it’s still not a comp as far as an appraisal would be concerned.

[SD Realtor]

Next time I have someone looking for a 3000 sq ft home with 5 bedrooms I will be sure to ask them is a 2600 sq ft home with 4 beds and a den will work.

SD Realtor

[SD Realtor]

Next time I have someone looking for a 3000 sq ft home with 5 bedrooms I will be sure to ask them is a 2600 sq ft home with 4 beds and a den will work.

SD Realtor

[temeculaguy]

I was about to award round one one my scorecard to sdrealtor but there is a flag on the play. Upon booth review of the instant replay that last sentence about inventory being down and pendings up will cost you 15 yards for an illegal “Bagdhad Bob” comment. Play ball.

I could have taken the round with a three sport reference but I could not dish it up in the form of a haiku so no points for me.

[temeculaguy]

I was about to award round one one my scorecard to sdrealtor but there is a flag on the play. Upon booth review of the instant replay that last sentence about inventory being down and pendings up will cost you 15 yards for an illegal “Bagdhad Bob” comment. Play ball.

I could have taken the round with a three sport reference but I could not dish it up in the form of a haiku so no points for me.

[Bugs]

sdr,

You can show those homes to whomever you want but there’s still going to be an appraisal and someone like me is either going to appraise it or (just as likely) review it.

The difference here ISN’T primarily in the 500SF size differential for the one house. Did you even look at the photos of that property to compare it to our original? Our property has 8ft ceilings and your “comp” appears to have 10ft ceilings. The interior is markedly nicer and the home is obviously of superior quality construction. I can see that just in the listings. The homes in this neighborhood are all larger, too.

If you run the sales from 01/2007 – 04/2007 for this neighborhood vs. our neighborhood you’ll find much higher pricing trends. Those trends hold up as far back as you’d care to look. That right there tells me that this neighborhood has significantly more appeal in the market.

This property simply isn’t a comp. It is not among the most similar sales, regardless of its bedroom count.

Something else: the data from this neoghborhood doesn’t conclusively support price differentials based on bedroom count. That’s pretty typical for the region. Overall size and quality tend to be bigger factors than bedroom count.

BTW, did you bother to track the trends that are being demonstrated in that neighborhood? Compare the sales from earlier this year to now. From what I’m seeing they demonstrate a declining market trend. That doesn’t support your theory that the more dated sales from our neighborhood (which are more similar) are irrelevant.

You’ve been ducking my “show me the increasing market” challenge that would make the most recent sales in the subject’s neighborhood irrelevant. Would you care to explain that?

Let’s see what your other pending does. It’s also located in a demonstrably superior appeal neighborhood, but at least the homes in that neighborhood are more similar in size to our neighborhood.

[Bugs]

sdr,

You can show those homes to whomever you want but there’s still going to be an appraisal and someone like me is either going to appraise it or (just as likely) review it.

The difference here ISN’T primarily in the 500SF size differential for the one house. Did you even look at the photos of that property to compare it to our original? Our property has 8ft ceilings and your “comp” appears to have 10ft ceilings. The interior is markedly nicer and the home is obviously of superior quality construction. I can see that just in the listings. The homes in this neighborhood are all larger, too.

If you run the sales from 01/2007 – 04/2007 for this neighborhood vs. our neighborhood you’ll find much higher pricing trends. Those trends hold up as far back as you’d care to look. That right there tells me that this neighborhood has significantly more appeal in the market.

This property simply isn’t a comp. It is not among the most similar sales, regardless of its bedroom count.

Something else: the data from this neoghborhood doesn’t conclusively support price differentials based on bedroom count. That’s pretty typical for the region. Overall size and quality tend to be bigger factors than bedroom count.

BTW, did you bother to track the trends that are being demonstrated in that neighborhood? Compare the sales from earlier this year to now. From what I’m seeing they demonstrate a declining market trend. That doesn’t support your theory that the more dated sales from our neighborhood (which are more similar) are irrelevant.

You’ve been ducking my “show me the increasing market” challenge that would make the most recent sales in the subject’s neighborhood irrelevant. Would you care to explain that?

Let’s see what your other pending does. It’s also located in a demonstrably superior appeal neighborhood, but at least the homes in that neighborhood are more similar in size to our neighborhood.

[sdrealtor]

Temecula Guy,
The flags need to be thrown on Bugs and SD Realtor.

Here is the listing text from when it his friends bought it.

“Spacious, tastefully decorated 5BR/3BA home, largest floor plan in Creek Park. 1BR/full BA downstairs, cul de sac street, close to Carmel Del Mar Elem & CV Middle. Vaulted ceilings, skylights, upgraded tile, plush carpeting throughout. Kitchen/eating area opens into charming family room with fireplace.”

I see both 5 BEDROOMS and VAULTED Ceilings. The new property is definitely NOT markedly nicer and the current owners have put in substantial improvements per the vrud.

SD R also knows (maybe he doesnt and that would be sad) that many people looking for 5BR’s really want 4 BR’s and an office/den/guest room etc.

I’m penalizing both for Unsportsmanlike Conduct!

As for Bugs increasing trend challenge I think I can handle that one. While sales are sparse in this specific neighborhood, I will take a look at this general area of CV to see if there is enough data to show what has happened to prices of like for like properties.

[sdrealtor]

Temecula Guy,
The flags need to be thrown on Bugs and SD Realtor.

Here is the listing text from when it his friends bought it.

“Spacious, tastefully decorated 5BR/3BA home, largest floor plan in Creek Park. 1BR/full BA downstairs, cul de sac street, close to Carmel Del Mar Elem & CV Middle. Vaulted ceilings, skylights, upgraded tile, plush carpeting throughout. Kitchen/eating area opens into charming family room with fireplace.”

I see both 5 BEDROOMS and VAULTED Ceilings. The new property is definitely NOT markedly nicer and the current owners have put in substantial improvements per the vrud.

SD R also knows (maybe he doesnt and that would be sad) that many people looking for 5BR’s really want 4 BR’s and an office/den/guest room etc.

I’m penalizing both for Unsportsmanlike Conduct!

As for Bugs increasing trend challenge I think I can handle that one. While sales are sparse in this specific neighborhood, I will take a look at this general area of CV to see if there is enough data to show what has happened to prices of like for like properties.

[Bugs]

Mate, I already pointed you to the sales IN YOUR NEIGHBORHOOD that demonstrate a slightly decreasing price trend over the last 6 months. If you’re going to rebut that you’re going to need to bring a lot of data.

I have location (same subdivision) on my side of the data and you don’t. I have relatively paired datasets from both neighborhoods as well as others that demonstrate the price differentials between these neighborhoods, and you don’t. I have DEMONSTRATED trends for decrease in your “comp” neighborhood using sales from late last year and early this year – it doesn’t appear to me that you’ve even been looking at those trends. You’ve got nothing here beyond the fact that this other property has the same number of bedrooms and the transaction is a little more recent.

Think about what you’re saying here. We already have sales in the subject’s immediate neighborhood and which are part of the subject’s subdivision from earlier this year. We have data from neighborhoods surrounding the subject’s neighborhood that demonstrate decreasing pricing trends. now you’re attempting to tell us that the current market is so great in that area that pricing is increasing – not by a little, but by over 10% in the last 4 months. That assertion is not only not credible, it’s not even in the same zip code as credible.

One more data point here for our other regulars – there’s been a LOT of commentary about prices for the new homes in CV showing pricing weakness and minor decreases. Before you seriously take sdr’s assertion that prices in this 20-year old neighborhood are quickly increasing you might want to keep that in mind.

[Bugs]

Mate, I already pointed you to the sales IN YOUR NEIGHBORHOOD that demonstrate a slightly decreasing price trend over the last 6 months. If you’re going to rebut that you’re going to need to bring a lot of data.

I have location (same subdivision) on my side of the data and you don’t. I have relatively paired datasets from both neighborhoods as well as others that demonstrate the price differentials between these neighborhoods, and you don’t. I have DEMONSTRATED trends for decrease in your “comp” neighborhood using sales from late last year and early this year – it doesn’t appear to me that you’ve even been looking at those trends. You’ve got nothing here beyond the fact that this other property has the same number of bedrooms and the transaction is a little more recent.

Think about what you’re saying here. We already have sales in the subject’s immediate neighborhood and which are part of the subject’s subdivision from earlier this year. We have data from neighborhoods surrounding the subject’s neighborhood that demonstrate decreasing pricing trends. now you’re attempting to tell us that the current market is so great in that area that pricing is increasing – not by a little, but by over 10% in the last 4 months. That assertion is not only not credible, it’s not even in the same zip code as credible.

One more data point here for our other regulars – there’s been a LOT of commentary about prices for the new homes in CV showing pricing weakness and minor decreases. Before you seriously take sdr’s assertion that prices in this 20-year old neighborhood are quickly increasing you might want to keep that in mind.

[PerryChase]

Bugs is one of my favorite poster. He’s very balanced in his analysis and he draws from experience. Bugs has never shown any kind of crash bias. He’s a realist who understands that sometimes prices will appreciate simply because of psychology — and that’s the market. But as prices go up, they eventually come down.

Realtors, on the other hand, have a vested interest in promoting real estate as safe “investments.” Many truly believe it, many others are self promoters.

[PerryChase]

Bugs is one of my favorite poster. He’s very balanced in his analysis and he draws from experience. Bugs has never shown any kind of crash bias. He’s a realist who understands that sometimes prices will appreciate simply because of psychology — and that’s the market. But as prices go up, they eventually come down.

Realtors, on the other hand, have a vested interest in promoting real estate as safe “investments.” Many truly believe it, many others are self promoters.

[Author]

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