Massive loss in Murrieta, listings for real?

[bsrsharma]

“so it’s $111 a sq ft”

Wow! If this pricing ever comes to nicer parts of SD county, it will be hard to resist moving! (from Rainland, Oregon). Does anyone have a guess on if/when this may happen to Carlsbad/Poway/Penasquitos?

[bsrsharma]

“so it’s $111 a sq ft”

Wow! If this pricing ever comes to nicer parts of SD county, it will be hard to resist moving! (from Rainland, Oregon). Does anyone have a guess on if/when this may happen to Carlsbad/Poway/Penasquitos?

[bsrsharma]

” I just looked at a brand new 2800 sq ft where I want it to be for 400k with all the upgrades”

temeculaguy,

Is this in Temecula or SD county? Would you mind telling the school district you referred to?

[bsrsharma]

” I just looked at a brand new 2800 sq ft where I want it to be for 400k with all the upgrades”

temeculaguy,

Is this in Temecula or SD county? Would you mind telling the school district you referred to?

[temeculaguy]

bsrsharma, it was in Temecula and it was the temecula valley school district, my personal handicap is that I need to be within the boundaries of specific schools within that district so as to not disrupt my teens lives and also because I prefer it here for a number of other personal reasons. There are plenty of high performing schools in the Temecula and Murietta districts. My comments were just the frustration that the prices seem to decline every mile or two as you travel North but I don’t want to move outside of a few square miles so I can’t take advantage of the more dramatic declines but I did admit I was turning into a greedy bastard and I want what i want in a specific area for prices that are in another area. It will get here, it’s just taking longer and there really isn’t enough of a reason it hasn’t moved south because it is essentially the same area. The $111 a sq has not been spotted yet where I want be (it’s still 125 to 150) and don’t hold you breath for that in nice suburbs of S.D., we are an exurb of S.D. and it only works for people with specific jobs that fortunately I have but most do not so it’s cheaper here.

Even in a year or two when S.D. starts to fold under the pressure it won’t ever reach these pricing levels in the nicer areas.

[temeculaguy]

bsrsharma, it was in Temecula and it was the temecula valley school district, my personal handicap is that I need to be within the boundaries of specific schools within that district so as to not disrupt my teens lives and also because I prefer it here for a number of other personal reasons. There are plenty of high performing schools in the Temecula and Murietta districts. My comments were just the frustration that the prices seem to decline every mile or two as you travel North but I don’t want to move outside of a few square miles so I can’t take advantage of the more dramatic declines but I did admit I was turning into a greedy bastard and I want what i want in a specific area for prices that are in another area. It will get here, it’s just taking longer and there really isn’t enough of a reason it hasn’t moved south because it is essentially the same area. The $111 a sq has not been spotted yet where I want be (it’s still 125 to 150) and don’t hold you breath for that in nice suburbs of S.D., we are an exurb of S.D. and it only works for people with specific jobs that fortunately I have but most do not so it’s cheaper here.

Even in a year or two when S.D. starts to fold under the pressure it won’t ever reach these pricing levels in the nicer areas.

[bsrsharma]

“when S.D. starts to fold”

I agree $111/sqft may be below the lower bound for nicer parts of SD even in a severe recession, but the other price you mentioned, $400K for 2800sqft ($143/sqft) is very probable in nicer neighborhoods. That combined with falling $ may make SD the New Miami for foreign investors. For the EURO folks and Canadians, our $143 today is already looking like $111 of last year.

[bsrsharma]

“when S.D. starts to fold”

I agree $111/sqft may be below the lower bound for nicer parts of SD even in a severe recession, but the other price you mentioned, $400K for 2800sqft ($143/sqft) is very probable in nicer neighborhoods. That combined with falling $ may make SD the New Miami for foreign investors. For the EURO folks and Canadians, our $143 today is already looking like $111 of last year.

[gn]

A year ago this is what I was hoping for, now that is has come down I am a little greedy for more but if it comes down another 50k on both examples above I doubt I'll be able to hold off.A year ago this is what I was hoping for, now that is has come down I am a little greedy for more but if it comes down another 50k on both examples above I doubt I'll be able to hold off.

Temeculaguy, I don't think that you are being greedy. It's about loss avoidance. If there's a house whose value/price is inline with rents, but if I think that the price will continue to go down significantly, it would be irresponsible of me to buy it. That's b/c I have a responsibility toward my family to make good financial decisions.

While I think S.D. has a year or two to unwind, here in the outskirts it is in full swing and the rent to buy numbers get closer every day

I agree that Temecula will reach the "bottom" before SD. But I think that it's Temecula that has 2 years to unwind. For SD, it's at least 3 years.

 

[gn]

A year ago this is what I was hoping for, now that is has come down I am a little greedy for more but if it comes down another 50k on both examples above I doubt I'll be able to hold off.A year ago this is what I was hoping for, now that is has come down I am a little greedy for more but if it comes down another 50k on both examples above I doubt I'll be able to hold off.

Temeculaguy, I don't think that you are being greedy. It's about loss avoidance. If there's a house whose value/price is inline with rents, but if I think that the price will continue to go down significantly, it would be irresponsible of me to buy it. That's b/c I have a responsibility toward my family to make good financial decisions.

While I think S.D. has a year or two to unwind, here in the outskirts it is in full swing and the rent to buy numbers get closer every day

I agree that Temecula will reach the "bottom" before SD. But I think that it's Temecula that has 2 years to unwind. For SD, it's at least 3 years.

 

[FormerOwner]

Once Temecula hits bottom, I think it will stay low for a lot longer than San Diego will. Other than the advantages San Diego has in jobs, climate, and proximity to the airport and ocean, I’ve been noticing that you see of lot of what appear to be wealthy Europeans and Asians in the nicer parts of San Diego. This trend seems to be increasing – just from my personal observation.

In Temecula/Murrieta, more and more, you see minority families that appear to be barely scraping by.

[FormerOwner]

Once Temecula hits bottom, I think it will stay low for a lot longer than San Diego will. Other than the advantages San Diego has in jobs, climate, and proximity to the airport and ocean, I’ve been noticing that you see of lot of what appear to be wealthy Europeans and Asians in the nicer parts of San Diego. This trend seems to be increasing – just from my personal observation.

In Temecula/Murrieta, more and more, you see minority families that appear to be barely scraping by.

[temeculaguy]

You may be right GN but there are a few things that I feel are accelerating the decline in my specific target neighborhoods. The artificially high number of forclosures hitting right now because of the Stonewood scam and the media jumping on it as a canary in a coal mine. All of the buildable land in my target area is under construction with about ten tracts in early or middle stages, the final two opened their models yesterday. D.R. horton just opened their development of 400+ homes and they look like they plan to build them all immediately (they are framing more than a 100 without buyers, it is likely they will slash the prices when they get to standing inventory. Resale inventory just hit record highs in my target zip code in my target price. It really feels like the perfect storm that will hit in the next six months, if it takes two years, so be it, but I am watching the clouds closely from here on out.

[temeculaguy]

You may be right GN but there are a few things that I feel are accelerating the decline in my specific target neighborhoods. The artificially high number of forclosures hitting right now because of the Stonewood scam and the media jumping on it as a canary in a coal mine. All of the buildable land in my target area is under construction with about ten tracts in early or middle stages, the final two opened their models yesterday. D.R. horton just opened their development of 400+ homes and they look like they plan to build them all immediately (they are framing more than a 100 without buyers, it is likely they will slash the prices when they get to standing inventory. Resale inventory just hit record highs in my target zip code in my target price. It really feels like the perfect storm that will hit in the next six months, if it takes two years, so be it, but I am watching the clouds closely from here on out.

[temeculaguy]

oops, I corrected a spelling error in my previous and it bumped my post down.

Everything you say is true with the exception of the demographics, you cannot use driveby analysis but you can use school API info taken from the state website to get a decent look at the demographics.

Great Oak High, the South Temecula high school numbers of 1844 students.

African American (not of Hispanic origin) 94
American Indian or Alaska Native 35
Asian 69
Filipino 110
Hispanic or Latino 323
Pacific Islander 16
White (not of Hispanic origin) 1127
Socioeconomically Disadvantaged 114
English Learners 80

While there are many races represented, the demographics are similar to S.D.’s best schools and while it is predominately white, they key stat is the low socioeconomic disadvantaged numbers similar to the the Poway district numbers. But white people lose their houses too so I have no argument that R/E will decline here but it is for reasons other than race.

You can get stats and performance for any school in the state here. An API of 800 or more is excellent and 650 sucks if you are keeping score at home.

http://api.cde.ca.gov/reports/page2.asp?subject=API&level=School&submit1=submit

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