[temeculaguy]

I don’t know the specifics, but from the website the sq footage spread is actually on 1,100. The plan 4 is only 3500 with a 4 car gar, it can get as high as 4400 if you add a bonus room above the garage and kill two of the four car garages. One story homes over 2400 sq ft are more marketable because they are difficult to find and it has a three car garage that is not tandem, the plan 4 is a 2×2 tandem, but still that doesn’t explain why they are the same price.

So what’s the plan Matt? Are you buying out there? After those tracts sell off I don’t think you are going to see any new construction out there for a while, they probably aren’t making much on these at these prices. Chaos is already happening in French Valley, those are almost Texas prices and under $100 a sq ft. Since the past declines in Temecula have appeared about six months after French Valley, I’ll expect those numbers here in March and I would pull the trigger if it was under $100 a square in the location I wanted. I know it will probably get worse but it’s hard to fathom it getting under 300k for over 4000 sq ft new house.

[temeculaguy]

Excellent take on the analogy, but I must say that any wait and any price would be worth it in your version so we really can’t use that version of the analogy it just doesn’t translate, it’s so wonderful it has a “if I won the lottery” feel to it.

Back to reality, while your wife may not accept the bargain areas don’t think for a minute there are enough like her to keep the market propped up. Most couples who have children in S.D. also have a working mom who is bombarded by Dr. Laura, et al, that she should not work and should be home with her kids even if it means a smaller home or a less desirable school district. The next time you have a couple with small kids shopping for R/E and they see an 800k scripps home and a 400k home elsewhere, look to see if there is a twinkle in the woman’s eyes, because she has run the numbers in her head and the numbers equal stay at home mom. Those moms would not live in the ghetto and dodge stray gunfire but they will drop down a notch or two to a decent suburb if the price is right. What happens when that 400k home elsewhere hits 300k, still think nobody will jump lines. They wouldn’t jump when the prices were close and it meant being a working mom and living in a marginal area but we are getting closer to having the middle drop and I know it will take the high with it.

I’m still laughing at a few of those quotes, “prime cuts” “upgrade” “the horror,” that was some of you best work. There was a time in the past I was sloshing around at the Beachcomber, but until they throw in a high speed rail line, my sloshing is confined within taxi range.

[temeculaguy]

More Cowbell, I need More Cowbell. Sundevil is who we thought he was, he poked the cats then left the room. I didn’t see any responses from him/her so all this post really did was affirm our common beliefs and give us someone to beat up collectively, nothing galvanizes a team more than a bench clearing brawl.

Thanks for remembering Rustico, I am not a raider fan but I am a fan of good football and good coaching and I like what Lane Kiffin is doing with the raiders (so does the rest of the country, his approval rating is 96% compared to Norv’s 8%). I am suprised at everyone’s memory, yes I attended SDSU with Allan and yes I slept through my econ classes, but what personal story do I have to defend this site apart from no longer needing real friends since my piggy friends are way cooler? This site gave me the strength and knowledge to postpone my re-entry into the housing market on two occasions in the last year, both times would have been a bad idea in retrospect. Having shifted some of my allocated daily internet time away from sports, internet dating and porn to this site I have saved about 100k in my potential housing price, so for that I thank all those who collectively contribute to my knowledge, trolls included.

[temeculaguy]

Yeah, how come Rustico and I didn’t get invited to the BBQ, I had to take all the sharp objects and rope out his house. After those attacks I cried for two hours then went to Target to buy more kleenex and asked what section they had a “life” in. The real reson I feel left out on Labor Day is that I don’t consider myself much of a laborer, I pay a someone to mow my lawn, clean my house, fix my car, so it seemed appropriate to pay someone to go to the BBQ for me.

[temeculaguy]

SDR it’s good and it’s overdue but now that it has started it will spread, it’s the invisible hand at work. I should have paid more attention in my economics classes but Adam Smith’s theories still hold true a few hundred years later. You may not want that house in Esco or condo in La Costa but one of you competitors for Old Scripps will, thus reducing the demand for your market, and less demand results in lower prices. I’ve skipped a couple of communities, the esco home isn’t in competition with Scripps, there are a few communities in between but you get the point.

The best analogy I’ve heard is the line at a brothel. Imagine there are ten prostitutes working at a brothel and on a scale of 1-10 there is a woman working whose beauty could be scored from 1-10, with one woman representing each rating. The price is $10 multiplied by the number of men in line when it’s your turn (2 people in line=$20, 30 people in line=$300) You are in the line for the woman who is a ten, along with 50 other guys, there are ten guys in line for the 5 and nobody is in line for the 1. At some point one of the guys in the line for the 3 decides he will just switch to the 1 and wait less and pay less, then another switches from the 4 line to the 2. Ultimately there is no waiting at many of the lines rated 7 and under and the line you are in starts to fall apart, with guys switching to all sorts of lines. You can downgrade and wait/pay less or hold your ground and still wait/pay less since 30 or 40 guys got out of your line and nobody is getting in line behind you, you still wait longer but you benefit from the impatience and frugality of others.

Get it now, economics and markets can always be simplified buy using analogies involving women, alcohol or gambling, because when you boil it down that’s what we understand.

[temeculaguy]

I am not going to take a stance on the article just give you some info on it’s origin, it’s from the Philadelphia Church of God. This is not some non denominational outfit but an offshoot of Armstrongism. After the death of this church leader his church splintered into a bunch of different churches. They don’t appear to be lunatics (I don’t know of any followers personally so I’m guessing) but they are quite different from the run of the mill churches. 10% tithing, no pork or shellfish, no christmas or easter and above all, the church will take over the government

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Armstrongism

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Philadelphia_Church_of_God

Just like I cannot accept information from the National Association of Realtors without being skeptical I cannot accept this information because their doctrine needs the collapse of society and government in order for their predictions to come true.

[temeculaguy]

Former, nice win/win post, loved it.

Schizo, the deck is never stacked against you as long as you are proactive, don’t set yourself up for situations where you need the stars to align, just figure out what you can control and control it. Buy some Tony Robbins tapes on E-bay, get some power back.

Here’s what the lever pullers can’t do:

They can’t bring back wacky financing
They can’t stop the decline in prices or sales immediately

Here’s what they can and might do:

Lower the discount rate to lessen the blow to resets and helocs.

Try and keep the 30 yr as low as they can (although their power is limited) so some buyers can still buy and they can stop the bleeding or prevent a collapse.

You won’t get a house for 30 or 40 cents on the dollar, if that’s your only plan, get a new plan, if it happens great but don’t count on it. You will get 25-50% off peak depending on the market, you will need 20% down and you will need to qualify and you may need to be ready to take advantage of that in the next 6 to 36 months, if you need more time you may miss it. If long rates go up 1 or 2 points, prices will come down an equivalent amount, people buy on payments not prices, if it does, don’t pay any discount points and refi your smaller debt when the rates come down. If they stay the same, you will want to fix because they won’t stay that way forever, but either way it’s a win/win for you if you are prepared to take advantage of it.

Nothing is good for irresponsible borrowers, they always lose.

[temeculaguy]

Can I play too, is there a handicap formula we can use like I have to give up 10% to make it fair. That would be too easy, maybe 20% would be fair.

02/06 760K
repo’s back for 402k
listed for 498k

33% off if it sells at list.

http://www.redfin.com/stingray/do/printable-listing?listing-id=1089382

580k 02/06
listed for 375k but it’s a short sale, still 205k off.

http://www.redfin.com/stingray/do/printable-listing?listing-id=1125872

This one is only 20k over it’s 2002 price

http://www.redfin.com/stingray/do/printable-listing?listing-id=1181307

Come to think of it, I shouldn’t be allowed to play, I found these in five minutes and they were in one square mile, never left the same page on redfin, it’s like taking candy from a baby.

[temeculaguy]

Bobby D, Good for you. You have a great attittude and while there might be better deals to be found next year that doesn’t take anything away from your play. Sell in 2005, buy standing inventory two years later with a large down payment at a huge discount, I give you a B+ and an A for sportsmanship. Assuming you aren’t leveraged too heavily and have a fixed and comfortable payment, playing the bottom for a rental property is a good plan, when it’s all said and done and you look at your balance sheet, your two years as a renter may end up netting you the rental for free. Even if you jumped back in too early, your exit was timed perfectly, had you jumped out in 2003 then waited until 2009 to get back in the margin would have been the same so timing the top correctly gives you leeway in timing the bottom incorrectly, it’s all about margin, baby.

[temeculaguy]

Sd I’m here but I fresh out of zoloft and the last 48 hours in sports has me feeling so low I have to look up to see down. I have drifted from disbelief, to anger to blame to numb, all in two days.

I know all too well that Cowher won’t come work for A.J., not only is Cowher too strong a coach for A.J., he was a protege of Marty’s and they are still close friends. My only hope is that Spanos contacts Cowher and Cowher agrees if A.J. is fired, then in a Lakers sort of way, people are sent packing to keep the stars happy, the tail wags the dog, the Chargers talent is saved, Marty is vindicated and Cowher can take the reigns with marty’s blessing and grattitude for offing his old nemesis. Marty may even take the front office or be a special advisor in a Bill Walsh kinda way. It’s all so perfect, I miss Cowher (he is one of may favorite all time coaches, plus he spits inadvertantly and gets into the game more than I do) and the Chargers need a coach. Plus Bill has three good looking daughters all in college, if you were a young, attractive rich girl, where would you want to spend your summer back from Princeton? Pittsburg, North Carolina or San Diego, these girls were made to be La Jolla girls.

On the Padres, they were trending downward and the Rockies have been getting hotter, it’s almost for the best that the Rockies move on, at least they have a chance. I hope Trevor stays with it, he was just too good to think he doesn’t have a Favre comeback season still in him.

[temeculaguy]

The reason you see a lot of market comments is that a lot of the housing bears invest their surplus cash in various places that in the past and in the future will likely be back in housing, plus were bored in our rentals. Watching the housing market decline can feel like watching paint dry. Sure there are quite a few people who were shorting the builder and mortgage stocks but on average I bet most of us are not bearish on everything, just housing in certain bubble markets like Southern California. Do I understand why the market is hitting new highs while we are on the verge of a recession, no I don’t. I think the weak dollar helps but I don’t understand it all and thankfully I have some long positions and mutual funds that are doing quite nicely, still doesn’t mean I know exactly why. What I do know is that housing has less moving parts as was stated above, the fundamentals are simple for my small brain to grasp, so I can make predictions and they will likely come true. I still use a full service stock broker so you won’t hear me tell anyone what to do with regards to stocks because I still pay a guy to tell me.

[temeculaguy]

Actually I like the first one but on mapquest it looks real close to the freeway, go there at about 10 p.m. and see if you can hear the freeway, if not it represents the best value of the group and I’ve stayed at that doubletree it is next to, cool area and the kids can sneak on the course at twilight.

The second one doesn’t have a single interior picture but has seven pictures of the outside, that’s curious. Since it was built in the seventies and they don’t show the interior you have to wonder how dated it must be. They really love to show all the scrub and surrounding open space, that’s nice but that is also a serious wildfire hazard, nice tile roof but still a hazard. The driveway is paved but I can’t tell if the road is.

The fourth is 1.5 mil, not really in the same ballpark as the other three.

#3 is much more my style but with a December COE, wait for standing inventory to see if that doesn’t find itself in the 600’s, Del Sur will be one of the last stops for the pain train and it won’t be in that station for very long, I’m afraid you have to wait another year for the train to pull into that station.

[temeculaguy]

It’s all good Radelow, we appreciate the info and even with the false beer alarm, it’s one of the best posts of stats in a while because it involved many properties and huge chunks downward.

Allan, we hijacked SD Realtors thread “two things I learned this weekend” it has erupted into a Norv Turner lovefest.

[temeculaguy]

VoZangre, don’t take this the wrong way but lose the walking through the fire signature line, we welcome new posters but that is an e-mail thing. Feel free to punch things up with philosiphy, I throw down some Lao Tzu here and there but never use the same line twice and mix it in where it is relevent.

So endeth the lesson and welcome aboard

So we’ve heard from people in every town where Norv and Ted have been before and not one has said anything positive, at this point they might as well go 4 and 12 so A.J. can’t show his face in public and we remember this the next time we get into the playoffs and complain that we didn’t win the Superbowl, bridesmaids at least get to wear the dress, we aren’t even going to get to go to the wedding at this rate.

[temeculaguy]

Nice jab, I am going to pull the race card on that one Neeta. I am bi-racial, half caucasion and half sarcast, so it wasn’t me being sarcastic it was you being racially and culturally unsensitive. I can reccomend some sensitivity training so you won’t be so biased against sarcasts. All in all it was a good thing, my uniformed reaction brought out some good responses and now you are better off for it. Remember, next month is sarcast heritage month.

[Author]

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