A couple of things this site needs …

[sdsundevil]

First of all, I have always failed to see the purpose of this site as it has predicted a fall in housing prices since ’03 I believe. Well, it took 3 years, but things eventually got there. It doesn’t take much to predict such things. Secondly, this is a nationwide phenomenon not isolated to San Diego. Might as well predict a recession and or a boom in the stock market. Predictions like this eventually come true.

Anyway, what I would like to see on this site in addition to the countywide housing prices are some more regionalized numbers (by zip code would be good). I theorize that it is places like Eastlake/Chula Vista and 4S Ranch (92127) that are being hit the hardest – distorting numbers from the rest of the county.

I think rents should also be tracked. I have always stated that rents never go down. That means the rent curve will catch up to the housing price curve at some point and end the correction. I believe this is what started the last housing boom. I know that’s the reason I ended up buying. It was cheaper to own than rent. The rent curve provides an idea of the absolute bottom for housing prices in my opinion.

Providing this type of data would help people figure out when a good time to buy may be. This would provide a valuable service. Otherwise, I think this site is only stating the obvious – we’re in a market correction.

Lastly, I think calling it a bubble implies a burst. I see no burst here. A burst would take some sudden event that reduced prices over the term of weeks, not months. See the internet bubble for an example. If your house goes down 20% over 2-3 years, it’s shouldn’t come as a surprise, and you will have had plenty of opportunity to get out.

[Arraya]

Translation: You guys are stupid and worthless and if you want me to grace you with my presence get me this information.

I can’t really tell which is greater your ignorance or arrogance.

[NotCranky]

Score: arraya 1 sundevil 0

Nest up for the piggs JWM….

[davelj]

sdsundevil, you stated that “I have always failed to see the purpose of this site as it has predicted a fall in housing prices since ’03 I believe. Well, it took 3 years, but things eventually got there.”

Where to begin… First of all, the purpose of this site is to discuss SD (and elsewhere) housing. Good, bad and other. I thought that was obvious. Logically, given its nature, most of the people here are housing bears to some degree or other. Yes, it took another two years (’03 to ’05) for prices to level off and begin to fall. Likewise, many stock market bears were complaining about the Nasdaq in ’97… it took another three years for valuations to start falling. Does that mean the early bears were wrong? Does it mean that their viewpoint was invalid? Does it mean that they were to be ignored? I think you see my point. Your argument here is a version of the Straw Man Fallacy.

Rents have been discussed here on many threads. Your statement, “I have always stated that rents never go down” is most unfortunate because it’s 100% incorrect. And to read this statement should logically make one question the validity of anything else you have to say, fairly or unfairly. In fact during the early 90s SD rents did fall – I can’t remember the peak-to-trough number (Rich, you know this number) – but I think I recall it being in the mid-single digit percentage range (maybe 4%-6%). Far less than house prices fell, to be sure, but they fell nonetheless.

Regarding the use of “bubble” and “bursting” this is all a matter of semantics. I could argue that prices falling by 20% over a 2-3 year period is a bursting and you could argue that it’s not. This is a tomato/tomahto issue. It’s probably not worth discussing. I will say this however… if you talk to the average person who bought a house in 2005 for $500K and asked them 3 years later after their house was appraised at $420K whether or not they felt a “bubble had burst” I’m going to bet they would say, “yes.”

[nostradamus]

I have made tens of thousands of dollars using information gleamed from this site. In addition, I’ve learned a lot about housing, mortgages, foreclosures, investing, renting, HOAs, NODs, NOTs, REOs, HELOCs, taxes, and the cyclical nature of real estate. Zip code specific areas are discussed FREQUENTLY and tables of rent, sales, prices, you name it are posted regularly. People even post stock ticker symbols for which I am eternally grateful.

I’ve also learned that irrational people who say things like “we are not in a bubble” or “rents never go down” cause a lot of unpredictable behavior on all markets. Forgive me if I sound slightly hostile, but I promise I have done my best to not say things like “you’re a friggin’ idiot” or “brainless buffoons like you got us into this mess”.

If all you’ve learned form this site is “we are in a correction” then you have not read enough or you’ve ignored what you’ve read because you’re in denial and nothing anyone says can convince you otherwise.

There is an entire blog on 4S Ranch, just search for it and read it, lazy.

[Ex-SD]

Uh, Carnac….(sdsundevil)……….If you really believe that this is not a bubble beginning to burst and is just a simple market correction…………….you need to quit thinking so much and start reading more facts about what’s really happening. Prices will fall much further over the next four to six years and if you don’t understand why, there is no reason to explain it to you.

[Coronita]

Wow,

I'm going to have to step out of my nice shell for a minute that I've been trying to fit.

 

IF YOU DON'T LIKE THIS FREE SITE THAT RICH T. GENEROUSLY SUPPORTS EITHER

1) GO AWAY

2) OFFER TO ADD CONTENT(USEFUL) CONTENT TO IT FOR FREE

 

I don't think Rich's makes significant income from this FREE site. and Some folks DO post useful information here (unfortunately, I'm not one of them).

BTW, did I mention this is a FREE site?

 

FREE FREE FREE FREEE FREEE FREE FREEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE

 

note to self: I've been frantically trying to put a webcrawler together that agregates all bankowned properties from different websites, but like so many others here, I have a regular day job too, with possibly the exception of Rustico, which has the means to contract everything out to everyone else :).

 

You're starting to sound like a union member. You want something for doing nothing. 

—– Sour grapes for everyone!

[stansd]

I’ve thought for some time it would be cool to have a spreadsheet somehow hosted on this site, or somewhere else with a link here that would have a lot of the pertinent data we all care about: median prices, prices/sqare foot, NOD’s/NOT’s, average mortgage rates, etc.

I’m ambitious enough to set a format up with the data suggestions of others. I’m not ambitous enough to populate it by myself.

If there was a quorum that would volunteer to help populate such a thing, and possibly and idea on how it could be hosted and edited like an excel wiki, I’d be game to do a little work.

Another idea would be a wiki style page with links to good data sources: foreclosure forum, fed reserve data, bankrate.com, etc.

Stan

[CDMA ENG]

CDMA ENG…

By the name… SD Sundevil… I am assuming this is another fine alumni of ASU. Him and Poway Seller make want to stick my degree in the mail to ASU with no return address.

What the heck…

C.E.

[Allan from Fallbrook]

CDMA ENG: Hey, I’ve been to some great parties at ASU! Be proud of your alma mater. Hell, I went to SDSU, and constantly have to put up with my buddies who matriculated at Stanford and Bezerkley demeaning my fine CalState education.

As far as SD Sundevil goes: We are looking at the largest credit bubble in financial history. His (or her) referring to it as a housing bubble does indeed underscore his (or her) ignorance as the housing bubble is simply one component of the larger credit bubble driven by years of the Fed’s excessively loose monetary policy.

Anyone who lacks even a passing familiarity with basic Econ101 type principles shouldn’t be bloviating about this site’s inability to properly call the bust.

SD Sundevil: Next time you are at Barnes & Noble picking up your copy of the Utne Reader, add The Economist, The Financial Times and a Wall Street Journal to your reading selection. Bring a dictionary for the hard words and spend a weekend educating yourself.

Get back to us following.

[Rich Toscano]

So let me just see if I’ve got all this…

You open up by making two provably wrong statements, that this site was started in 2003 and that price declines didn’t happen until 3 years after they were predicted here. In fact the site was started in spring of 2004. The Case-Shiller HPI peaked the following year, although by spring 2004 the bulk of the price increases were behind us, and in terms of euphoric sentiment and panic buying the market was already at or past its peak. At the time, sentiment towards housing was ubiquitously bullish and the purpose of this site — since you are apparently having trouble figuring it out — was (and still is) to provide some rational analysis of the market to counter all the cheerleading from the legions of housing bubble apologists.

You then go on to insult me and everyone who posts here by saying “It doesn’t take much to predict such things.” (I somehow doubt that you predicted anything of the sort back in 2004).

Then you say something else provably wrong, that rents never decline. As davelj pointed out, they did decline here in the 1990s — a fact that you could easily verify yourself if you cared to.

Then, you attempt some tortured logic which as far as I can tell ends up with the ridiculous assertion that because prices didn’t crash in the space of a few weeks, there was never a bubble.

Somewhere in there among three falsehoods, an insult, and the most inept re-definition of “bubble” that I’ve ever heard, you to suggest a number of labor intensive data collection tasks that you apparently think that I — the guy you just insulted — should undertake because, despite their apparent importance, you are insufficiently motivated to do them yourself.

Good luck with all that.

[cr]

I don’t think he’ll be back.

[SD Realtor]

wow looks like I missed some fun today…

sdsundevil this is a blog….it is for people to have fun, sound off… speak their minds… bitch and moan… and call each other out. pretty much all of the factual stats you asked for can be found in a matter of seconds… all you have to do is look for it…

as for predictions… i think a few things will happen… the sun will come up tomorrow… and the broncos will hand the chargers their fifth loss of the season AND I believe they will cover.

how is that?

ps – take the over in the steelers game. now go make some money.

SD Realtor

[NotCranky]

Allan I think Temeculaguy went to SDSU too. He is also a Raider’s fan. You two have a lot in common.

[Coronita]

Since this thread is so jacked anyway, I'm going to hijack it and talk about football. (Sorry Rich, I know you don't like people hijacking threads).

 

Ok, I like the Raiders, especially when they moved to L.A. BUT, can some raider fan explain to me why

1) When the Raiders lose, Raiders fans riot

2) When the Raiders win, Raiders  fans riot

I mean, it was frickin scary when I was in Oakland for a few games in the past.

[Author]

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