[temeculaguy]

aaaah no ziprealty, I can barely remember my atm password, do you have this on redfin or mrmls, can you throw up the address. free beer requires free viewing.

[temeculaguy]

aaaah no ziprealty, I can barely remember my atm password, do you have this on redfin or mrmls, can you throw up the address. free beer requires free viewing.

[temeculaguy]

As i understand it, this would fly in the face of trying to prop up the market and will do an incredible amount of damage to current values by making R/E less attractive, especially to investor sized homes (rentals), the very market that Rangel wants to protect, doesn’t he have staffers that look into this stuff for him. If you take away the possible tax free investment property or vacation home, I would be less inclined to buy one as would many others. Who needs fundamentals to cause the market to crash when we have the government to accelerate it. I’m taking back all of my 2009 predictions, I give it two weeks after all this legislation is passed. 50% off by the ides of march, final answer.

[temeculaguy]

As i understand it, this would fly in the face of trying to prop up the market and will do an incredible amount of damage to current values by making R/E less attractive, especially to investor sized homes (rentals), the very market that Rangel wants to protect, doesn’t he have staffers that look into this stuff for him. If you take away the possible tax free investment property or vacation home, I would be less inclined to buy one as would many others. Who needs fundamentals to cause the market to crash when we have the government to accelerate it. I’m taking back all of my 2009 predictions, I give it two weeks after all this legislation is passed. 50% off by the ides of march, final answer.

[temeculaguy]

I always thought the tax on a short sale was stupid, they didn’t net anything and most are in no position to pay at that point, I’m sure someone will point out an example but I can’t think of another scenario where you lose and you get taxed to boot. If I lose on stocks or blackjack for that matter, I don’t get taxed, I’m only taxed if I win. I wouldn’t worry about this causing people to walk away, that wasn’t always taxed and sometimes is not forgiven, depends on the loan, it was the person who worked with the bank and sold for less than the debt but maintained the property while listed that got taxed, often the “short” price would be equal to or greater than what it would end up going for as a brown lawn repo. This does quicken the decline if the banks allow the shorts, which isn’t guaranteed. Instead of waiting a year for the repos to supress the market, the shorts will do it next week.

The PMI part changes nothing, the 80/20 or 80/10 had found the loophole, this just eliminates the previous rule that neccesitated the work around, instead of eliminating the loophole, the eliminated the need for it.

I’m with contrarian on this one, this doesn’t save anyone and may accelerate the price drop. I’m for this one as I understand it, the tax didn’t make sense in the first place.

[temeculaguy]

I always thought the tax on a short sale was stupid, they didn’t net anything and most are in no position to pay at that point, I’m sure someone will point out an example but I can’t think of another scenario where you lose and you get taxed to boot. If I lose on stocks or blackjack for that matter, I don’t get taxed, I’m only taxed if I win. I wouldn’t worry about this causing people to walk away, that wasn’t always taxed and sometimes is not forgiven, depends on the loan, it was the person who worked with the bank and sold for less than the debt but maintained the property while listed that got taxed, often the “short” price would be equal to or greater than what it would end up going for as a brown lawn repo. This does quicken the decline if the banks allow the shorts, which isn’t guaranteed. Instead of waiting a year for the repos to supress the market, the shorts will do it next week.

The PMI part changes nothing, the 80/20 or 80/10 had found the loophole, this just eliminates the previous rule that neccesitated the work around, instead of eliminating the loophole, the eliminated the need for it.

I’m with contrarian on this one, this doesn’t save anyone and may accelerate the price drop. I’m for this one as I understand it, the tax didn’t make sense in the first place.

[temeculaguy]

Bear, i posted before I saw your comment, good move on getting out when you did, and you are right about the O.C. commuter being unrealistic but the majority of the South Temecula residents commute to S.D. with North S.D. being more likely. As an almost two decade veteran of that drive, it’s usually less than an hour to most of the North County, still under 45 minutes to Esco, Vista, San Marcos and depending on location can be closer to 30 minutes. For anyone reading this, heed Bearvine’s advice, this may look like parts of O.C. but it is not a viable bedroom community of it, it shouldn’t attempted by downtown S.D. workers either. I am with you on the commute not being worth it since I don’t go very far but I have no fear of the high school’s location, in fact that school had the highest state test scores in all of Riverside and S.B. county, it’s really not a pedestrian gambling place like the Strip in Vegas so the proximity to Morgan and the route of your kids going to school does not cross the casino traffic, that wouldn’t have been a concern of mine, but I’ve been here a while and have seen many kids grow up around the area with none of them being adversly affected by the casino, the majority of the clients are asians from the O.C. and pretty well behaved overall. I’d be more worried about a biker bar to be honest. Plus you could easily hae sent them to TVHS from morgan it’s about the same distance and they allow the tranfer. I think that vizio is in my stars, I’m already paying for the hd box because I wanted the dvr, so what the hell, if that thing breaks I’m coming after all of you because my sdtv tubes work forever.

[temeculaguy]

Bear, i posted before I saw your comment, good move on getting out when you did, and you are right about the O.C. commuter being unrealistic but the majority of the South Temecula residents commute to S.D. with North S.D. being more likely. As an almost two decade veteran of that drive, it’s usually less than an hour to most of the North County, still under 45 minutes to Esco, Vista, San Marcos and depending on location can be closer to 30 minutes. For anyone reading this, heed Bearvine’s advice, this may look like parts of O.C. but it is not a viable bedroom community of it, it shouldn’t attempted by downtown S.D. workers either. I am with you on the commute not being worth it since I don’t go very far but I have no fear of the high school’s location, in fact that school had the highest state test scores in all of Riverside and S.B. county, it’s really not a pedestrian gambling place like the Strip in Vegas so the proximity to Morgan and the route of your kids going to school does not cross the casino traffic, that wouldn’t have been a concern of mine, but I’ve been here a while and have seen many kids grow up around the area with none of them being adversly affected by the casino, the majority of the clients are asians from the O.C. and pretty well behaved overall. I’d be more worried about a biker bar to be honest. Plus you could easily hae sent them to TVHS from morgan it’s about the same distance and they allow the tranfer. I think that vizio is in my stars, I’m already paying for the hd box because I wanted the dvr, so what the hell, if that thing breaks I’m coming after all of you because my sdtv tubes work forever.

[temeculaguy]

Happyrenter, it isn’t 2003 just yet, Temecula’s better areas would run you 200-250 in 1998 which was the low, by 2003 it was about 400k for a 2700 to 3500 sq ft on the golf course in a gated community in Redhawk. Here one street built in 2003. Look to the right and the original 2003 prices was 387 to 404, today, even the repo is almost 100k over 2003 and the resales are 160k to 170k over.

http://www.redfin.com/stingray/do/printable-listing?listing-id=852863

http://www.redfin.com/stingray/do/printable-listing?listing-id=1057955

http://www.redfin.com/stingray/do/printable-listing?listing-id=366161

You can’t find golf course, gated Redhawk 3500 sq for 404k, so were not there just yet, will we get there, I say so.

The builder quality is wolf is good, the pitfall would be proximity to the casino and Pechanga parkway, that will be a six lane road, being with a few hundred feet of it will hurt you in the long run. Also it was all built post 2004 so the repo’s will be high along with morgan. Wolf is also entirely flat, not a view to be had, doesn’t bother me but it bothers some and just because Wolf is pricing out at Redhawk’s 2003 doesn’t mean we are at 2003 prices, had wolf been built in 2003 it would have been more like 300k for 3500 sq ft. This is what 315k bought you in Redhawk in 2003, 2500 sq ft no view but in a gated, nice area a few streets away from those above and a non tandem 3 car garage. The wolf garages are mostly tandem.

http://www.redfin.com/stingray/do/printable-listing?listing-id=1133056

As far as 2001, 265k would have gotten you this and they are asking 465 on a short, If this get to 265, I’ll take three.

http://www.redfin.com/stingray/do/printable-listing?listing-id=818971

Wolf is nice and I may buy there but IMHO, Morgan and Redhawk will always command a premium, you will find examples of 2003 prices here and there but for the better tracts, we still have a ways to go.

[temeculaguy]

Happyrenter, it isn’t 2003 just yet, Temecula’s better areas would run you 200-250 in 1998 which was the low, by 2003 it was about 400k for a 2700 to 3500 sq ft on the golf course in a gated community in Redhawk. Here one street built in 2003. Look to the right and the original 2003 prices was 387 to 404, today, even the repo is almost 100k over 2003 and the resales are 160k to 170k over.

http://www.redfin.com/stingray/do/printable-listing?listing-id=852863

http://www.redfin.com/stingray/do/printable-listing?listing-id=1057955

http://www.redfin.com/stingray/do/printable-listing?listing-id=366161

You can’t find golf course, gated Redhawk 3500 sq for 404k, so were not there just yet, will we get there, I say so.

The builder quality is wolf is good, the pitfall would be proximity to the casino and Pechanga parkway, that will be a six lane road, being with a few hundred feet of it will hurt you in the long run. Also it was all built post 2004 so the repo’s will be high along with morgan. Wolf is also entirely flat, not a view to be had, doesn’t bother me but it bothers some and just because Wolf is pricing out at Redhawk’s 2003 doesn’t mean we are at 2003 prices, had wolf been built in 2003 it would have been more like 300k for 3500 sq ft. This is what 315k bought you in Redhawk in 2003, 2500 sq ft no view but in a gated, nice area a few streets away from those above and a non tandem 3 car garage. The wolf garages are mostly tandem.

http://www.redfin.com/stingray/do/printable-listing?listing-id=1133056

As far as 2001, 265k would have gotten you this and they are asking 465 on a short, If this get to 265, I’ll take three.

http://www.redfin.com/stingray/do/printable-listing?listing-id=818971

Wolf is nice and I may buy there but IMHO, Morgan and Redhawk will always command a premium, you will find examples of 2003 prices here and there but for the better tracts, we still have a ways to go.

[temeculaguy]

All these questions, I mostly tell jokes, hardly the sage but I’ll give it my all and start the press conference.

mgu, it’s sitting in the 280-310 range right now after incentives but including about 5 1/2 fixed, granite, fridge, w&d, a year of association, etc. Where it is going, I dunno but I placed a wager on it going down so I am biased. It was 340-380 about 6-9 months ago. Keep in mind these are for alley homes or cluster driveways in that size range, traditional sfr’s will add 30-50k more. There are attached ones but with 2 car garages that might be better for an investment that will be in the 200-250 range, I haven’t looked closely at them lately. It’s a bargain at 100-125x rent and rent for all these are 1500-2000, so it’s not there yet but it has hit 150x rent and in some cases slightly below, it seems the smaller the better the ratio, the rent market is a little weird, 3500 sq ft and 1500 sq ft have only about a 25% spread in rent here because there are tons of big houses and very few condos and apartments, speaking specifically of South Teme.

happy renter, welcome, the shadows are no fun so chime in whenever. Based on the size you are looking at sycamore, laurel or cottonwood. They haven’t got too much standing inventory but it’s worsening for them and the price drops pile on monthly. Wolf has a lot of foreclosures coming so early next year the pressure will mount and you should get what you want, peek at Morgan and Redhawk, lots of inventory piling up there and they have some advantages over wolf, but I like wolf too, 2008 is going to be a fun time to shop. And yes, when SD starts to fall, Temecula will get hit again, not sure about another 100k but there will be another hit. South Teme is your safest bet because it’s almost out of land and traffic North is brutal, if you get sub 2003 prices you are probably safe in the long run but that cannot be guaranteed by January. Look at it for personal affordability, if you can get a fixed rate and afford it easily, who cares.

lonestar-good tip, never even heard of laser t.v.’s but you know what will happen, i’ll wait on those for years to come down too. I am clueless to your market and the current prices but you may have to adjust your wish list if you are looking for another 50% off, most of the I.E. has already corrected 25%, maybe 25% more left in the tank at best. I agree with you about hitting the deal button, the point of my earlier post was that when it gets to whatever you wished for it’s still hard to hit it.

golf-I am probably going to do what you did and get the costco vizio special to tide me over and I agree that much below $100 a square can be wishful and gets into the building cost area, there is a floor and it’s just not worth the cost of materials at $50 or maybe $75 a square.

Vo-I already do that regularly and it doesn’t work, while the latest one was above the usual crowd, they usually don’t know what “quoting” means let alone the content, but nice zinger anyway. Truth be told I’m not looking to change my bachelor status anyway, I have way to many faults that I rather like and don’t feel like being scolded for.

Matt-I can be a bear and still think there is a bottom, my diatribe was about not waiting this out too long, at some point in my situation renting for 2k and being able to buy for 1500 after taxes makes sense and it will to others as well, it won’t find support at current prices but eventually it will.

Patient renter- thanks for the love, I always dig your stuff too and it’s comments like that that keep me finding the tangents wherever possible.

[temeculaguy]

All these questions, I mostly tell jokes, hardly the sage but I’ll give it my all and start the press conference.

mgu, it’s sitting in the 280-310 range right now after incentives but including about 5 1/2 fixed, granite, fridge, w&d, a year of association, etc. Where it is going, I dunno but I placed a wager on it going down so I am biased. It was 340-380 about 6-9 months ago. Keep in mind these are for alley homes or cluster driveways in that size range, traditional sfr’s will add 30-50k more. There are attached ones but with 2 car garages that might be better for an investment that will be in the 200-250 range, I haven’t looked closely at them lately. It’s a bargain at 100-125x rent and rent for all these are 1500-2000, so it’s not there yet but it has hit 150x rent and in some cases slightly below, it seems the smaller the better the ratio, the rent market is a little weird, 3500 sq ft and 1500 sq ft have only about a 25% spread in rent here because there are tons of big houses and very few condos and apartments, speaking specifically of South Teme.

happy renter, welcome, the shadows are no fun so chime in whenever. Based on the size you are looking at sycamore, laurel or cottonwood. They haven’t got too much standing inventory but it’s worsening for them and the price drops pile on monthly. Wolf has a lot of foreclosures coming so early next year the pressure will mount and you should get what you want, peek at Morgan and Redhawk, lots of inventory piling up there and they have some advantages over wolf, but I like wolf too, 2008 is going to be a fun time to shop. And yes, when SD starts to fall, Temecula will get hit again, not sure about another 100k but there will be another hit. South Teme is your safest bet because it’s almost out of land and traffic North is brutal, if you get sub 2003 prices you are probably safe in the long run but that cannot be guaranteed by January. Look at it for personal affordability, if you can get a fixed rate and afford it easily, who cares.

lonestar-good tip, never even heard of laser t.v.’s but you know what will happen, i’ll wait on those for years to come down too. I am clueless to your market and the current prices but you may have to adjust your wish list if you are looking for another 50% off, most of the I.E. has already corrected 25%, maybe 25% more left in the tank at best. I agree with you about hitting the deal button, the point of my earlier post was that when it gets to whatever you wished for it’s still hard to hit it.

golf-I am probably going to do what you did and get the costco vizio special to tide me over and I agree that much below $100 a square can be wishful and gets into the building cost area, there is a floor and it’s just not worth the cost of materials at $50 or maybe $75 a square.

Vo-I already do that regularly and it doesn’t work, while the latest one was above the usual crowd, they usually don’t know what “quoting” means let alone the content, but nice zinger anyway. Truth be told I’m not looking to change my bachelor status anyway, I have way to many faults that I rather like and don’t feel like being scolded for.

Matt-I can be a bear and still think there is a bottom, my diatribe was about not waiting this out too long, at some point in my situation renting for 2k and being able to buy for 1500 after taxes makes sense and it will to others as well, it won’t find support at current prices but eventually it will.

Patient renter- thanks for the love, I always dig your stuff too and it’s comments like that that keep me finding the tangents wherever possible.

[temeculaguy]

Standard Pacific will end up in bankruptcy within six months, final answer.

Forget their balance sheet, stock price, etc. Has anyone ever liked their product. In a Motley Fool, don’t buy the stock if you wouldn’t buy the product analysis, I hate their product. It’s not that they are bad, they just aren’t impressive and cost more than the competition. I’ve toured four of their developments and only one model impressed me as being well designed. They seem slow to cut prices and have the worst inventory situation in my neck of the woods, yet they have no urgency about them while the other builders have their hair on fire.

[temeculaguy]

Standard Pacific will end up in bankruptcy within six months, final answer.

Forget their balance sheet, stock price, etc. Has anyone ever liked their product. In a Motley Fool, don’t buy the stock if you wouldn’t buy the product analysis, I hate their product. It’s not that they are bad, they just aren’t impressive and cost more than the competition. I’ve toured four of their developments and only one model impressed me as being well designed. They seem slow to cut prices and have the worst inventory situation in my neck of the woods, yet they have no urgency about them while the other builders have their hair on fire.

[temeculaguy]

Matt, the problem with the acceleration of decline in our market is that when you set a strike price, like you did, what happens when it gets there way ahead of schedule. You are only about 50-75k off in your desires and that could very well hit inside of six months, what then? Your mind sees all these indicators that it hasn’t hit bottom but at the same time you got your wish and the affordable price for the house you wanted arrived.

I’m with you on the not wanting to maintain 4000 sq ft., been there, done that and can’t say I enjoyed $500 electric bills. My plans are a bit fuzzy, my strike price that I set a year ago already arrived and I chose to renew my lease for another 6 months so I am renting through Feb. 08 and will have to decide again in Jan/Feb. I was looking at unattached 2000-2200 sq ft 3br 3ba but with as small a lot as possible and preferred association maintained front landscaping (I never want to own a mower again) and a community pool. Something in the condo lifestyle without the shared walls. I would also like a three or four car garage. Since there is nothing like that in existence I will be making some compromises but I’ve found some new ones that come close and they are already below what I set my strike price at. At each drop I keep thinking there are more drops in store but at some point in 2008 I’m sure I’ll just do it, my income to housing ratio will be close to 20% and that’s getting silly, plus my after tax price to buy is equal to my rent and the place I will buy will be 25% bigger, for these reasons I don’t think I’ll wait until 2009.

I am a procrastinator, I am currently playing chicken with flat panel t.v.’s. When they were 3,000 I said I would wait until they were half that. When they dropped to 1500 I told myself that I wanted one of the better brands. I went to costco the other day and there were off brands in the $500 range and $1000 gets you a nice one but still i say no, they will be better and cheaper in six months, yet i pay $100 in cable to watch on a $200 T.V. and I have lots of money, I make no sense even to myslef. If I could only extend my level of restraint to my love life, I’d be set. But alas, my achilles heel, each time telling myself that I should not involve myself with a particular woman knowing full well that her lack of intelligence or some other issue will in a month be driving me nuts and i will be on wikipedia looking up new diseases to pretend to have so she will go away. Yet as i type I have a window open to wikipedia and another on web md. I could always just go with the default of fibromyalga, but I think I need to mix it up a little because after reading The Secret i’m afraid I’ll end up with it if I keep using it.

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