[temeculaguy]

alarmclock, what happens when the formulas contradict each other or don’t line up. My case is a property that my knife hand has been contemplating while the other hand holds it back.

Formula #1 median 68k x 3 = 204k
Formula #2 rent 1800 x 150=270k
Formula #3 built in 2003 so it’s hard to tell the 2001 but 03 was 265k and early 06 was 450k

My gut tells me that 245k is a balanced price, about 15% less than the bank has it listed at. 2000 sq, 4/3 pretty much a median home for the area.

I use a formula for the balanced price as the rent vs the P&I using 0 down but not counting PMI because the 0 down is only for the formula, when they match, it’s even. I base it only on psychology, when people can buy for the same as rent plus taxes and insurance, they will buy (taking market psychology out of it). Taxes, insurance and maintenance are roughly offset by the tax deduction, the interest on their downpayment had it stayed in the bank will reduce the P&I in an equal amount so that’s a draw. Here’s how it fleshes out using the above scenario. All number are rounded.

borrowing 245k at 6% is 1500, hoa takes it to 1600. Borrowing 450k at 6% is 2700 (2800 w/hoa). So at 450k it was overvalued, at 245 it is undervalued or close to value. Add in hoa, taxes and insurance and it is 2k a month, factor the tax deduction and it is cheaper than rent or rent nuetral. The variables are obviously the wild card in any formula, R/E can overshoot and undershoot, there are no guarantees in life but rent nuetral is a pretty safe play. Rent vs buy is the biggest question any buyer asks themself. Should I rent for 1800 or buy for 2800, if the answer is buy, you were wrong and it results in a repo. When it gets to should I rent for 1800 or buy for 1500 (2k out the door) and get a tax deduction so it’s the same or cheaper to buy, then buy they will, maybe not now while the media is trashing the market but ultimately they will return, as will I. The trick that I haven’t figured out is how long to wait and my own formulas that prevented me at 450k aren’t convincing me at 245k because every week they drop further and like the FB’s were seduced by the ever increasing prices that made they feel they couldn’t lose, I am seduced by the constant reductions that make me feel at some point houses will be free.

[temeculaguy]

alarmclock, what happens when the formulas contradict each other or don’t line up. My case is a property that my knife hand has been contemplating while the other hand holds it back.

Formula #1 median 68k x 3 = 204k
Formula #2 rent 1800 x 150=270k
Formula #3 built in 2003 so it’s hard to tell the 2001 but 03 was 265k and early 06 was 450k

My gut tells me that 245k is a balanced price, about 15% less than the bank has it listed at. 2000 sq, 4/3 pretty much a median home for the area.

I use a formula for the balanced price as the rent vs the P&I using 0 down but not counting PMI because the 0 down is only for the formula, when they match, it’s even. I base it only on psychology, when people can buy for the same as rent plus taxes and insurance, they will buy (taking market psychology out of it). Taxes, insurance and maintenance are roughly offset by the tax deduction, the interest on their downpayment had it stayed in the bank will reduce the P&I in an equal amount so that’s a draw. Here’s how it fleshes out using the above scenario. All number are rounded.

borrowing 245k at 6% is 1500, hoa takes it to 1600. Borrowing 450k at 6% is 2700 (2800 w/hoa). So at 450k it was overvalued, at 245 it is undervalued or close to value. Add in hoa, taxes and insurance and it is 2k a month, factor the tax deduction and it is cheaper than rent or rent nuetral. The variables are obviously the wild card in any formula, R/E can overshoot and undershoot, there are no guarantees in life but rent nuetral is a pretty safe play. Rent vs buy is the biggest question any buyer asks themself. Should I rent for 1800 or buy for 2800, if the answer is buy, you were wrong and it results in a repo. When it gets to should I rent for 1800 or buy for 1500 (2k out the door) and get a tax deduction so it’s the same or cheaper to buy, then buy they will, maybe not now while the media is trashing the market but ultimately they will return, as will I. The trick that I haven’t figured out is how long to wait and my own formulas that prevented me at 450k aren’t convincing me at 245k because every week they drop further and like the FB’s were seduced by the ever increasing prices that made they feel they couldn’t lose, I am seduced by the constant reductions that make me feel at some point houses will be free.

[temeculaguy]

alarmclock, what happens when the formulas contradict each other or don’t line up. My case is a property that my knife hand has been contemplating while the other hand holds it back.

Formula #1 median 68k x 3 = 204k
Formula #2 rent 1800 x 150=270k
Formula #3 built in 2003 so it’s hard to tell the 2001 but 03 was 265k and early 06 was 450k

My gut tells me that 245k is a balanced price, about 15% less than the bank has it listed at. 2000 sq, 4/3 pretty much a median home for the area.

I use a formula for the balanced price as the rent vs the P&I using 0 down but not counting PMI because the 0 down is only for the formula, when they match, it’s even. I base it only on psychology, when people can buy for the same as rent plus taxes and insurance, they will buy (taking market psychology out of it). Taxes, insurance and maintenance are roughly offset by the tax deduction, the interest on their downpayment had it stayed in the bank will reduce the P&I in an equal amount so that’s a draw. Here’s how it fleshes out using the above scenario. All number are rounded.

borrowing 245k at 6% is 1500, hoa takes it to 1600. Borrowing 450k at 6% is 2700 (2800 w/hoa). So at 450k it was overvalued, at 245 it is undervalued or close to value. Add in hoa, taxes and insurance and it is 2k a month, factor the tax deduction and it is cheaper than rent or rent nuetral. The variables are obviously the wild card in any formula, R/E can overshoot and undershoot, there are no guarantees in life but rent nuetral is a pretty safe play. Rent vs buy is the biggest question any buyer asks themself. Should I rent for 1800 or buy for 2800, if the answer is buy, you were wrong and it results in a repo. When it gets to should I rent for 1800 or buy for 1500 (2k out the door) and get a tax deduction so it’s the same or cheaper to buy, then buy they will, maybe not now while the media is trashing the market but ultimately they will return, as will I. The trick that I haven’t figured out is how long to wait and my own formulas that prevented me at 450k aren’t convincing me at 245k because every week they drop further and like the FB’s were seduced by the ever increasing prices that made they feel they couldn’t lose, I am seduced by the constant reductions that make me feel at some point houses will be free.

[temeculaguy]

alarmclock, what happens when the formulas contradict each other or don’t line up. My case is a property that my knife hand has been contemplating while the other hand holds it back.

Formula #1 median 68k x 3 = 204k
Formula #2 rent 1800 x 150=270k
Formula #3 built in 2003 so it’s hard to tell the 2001 but 03 was 265k and early 06 was 450k

My gut tells me that 245k is a balanced price, about 15% less than the bank has it listed at. 2000 sq, 4/3 pretty much a median home for the area.

I use a formula for the balanced price as the rent vs the P&I using 0 down but not counting PMI because the 0 down is only for the formula, when they match, it’s even. I base it only on psychology, when people can buy for the same as rent plus taxes and insurance, they will buy (taking market psychology out of it). Taxes, insurance and maintenance are roughly offset by the tax deduction, the interest on their downpayment had it stayed in the bank will reduce the P&I in an equal amount so that’s a draw. Here’s how it fleshes out using the above scenario. All number are rounded.

borrowing 245k at 6% is 1500, hoa takes it to 1600. Borrowing 450k at 6% is 2700 (2800 w/hoa). So at 450k it was overvalued, at 245 it is undervalued or close to value. Add in hoa, taxes and insurance and it is 2k a month, factor the tax deduction and it is cheaper than rent or rent nuetral. The variables are obviously the wild card in any formula, R/E can overshoot and undershoot, there are no guarantees in life but rent nuetral is a pretty safe play. Rent vs buy is the biggest question any buyer asks themself. Should I rent for 1800 or buy for 2800, if the answer is buy, you were wrong and it results in a repo. When it gets to should I rent for 1800 or buy for 1500 (2k out the door) and get a tax deduction so it’s the same or cheaper to buy, then buy they will, maybe not now while the media is trashing the market but ultimately they will return, as will I. The trick that I haven’t figured out is how long to wait and my own formulas that prevented me at 450k aren’t convincing me at 245k because every week they drop further and like the FB’s were seduced by the ever increasing prices that made they feel they couldn’t lose, I am seduced by the constant reductions that make me feel at some point houses will be free.

[temeculaguy]

alarmclock, what happens when the formulas contradict each other or don’t line up. My case is a property that my knife hand has been contemplating while the other hand holds it back.

Formula #1 median 68k x 3 = 204k
Formula #2 rent 1800 x 150=270k
Formula #3 built in 2003 so it’s hard to tell the 2001 but 03 was 265k and early 06 was 450k

My gut tells me that 245k is a balanced price, about 15% less than the bank has it listed at. 2000 sq, 4/3 pretty much a median home for the area.

I use a formula for the balanced price as the rent vs the P&I using 0 down but not counting PMI because the 0 down is only for the formula, when they match, it’s even. I base it only on psychology, when people can buy for the same as rent plus taxes and insurance, they will buy (taking market psychology out of it). Taxes, insurance and maintenance are roughly offset by the tax deduction, the interest on their downpayment had it stayed in the bank will reduce the P&I in an equal amount so that’s a draw. Here’s how it fleshes out using the above scenario. All number are rounded.

borrowing 245k at 6% is 1500, hoa takes it to 1600. Borrowing 450k at 6% is 2700 (2800 w/hoa). So at 450k it was overvalued, at 245 it is undervalued or close to value. Add in hoa, taxes and insurance and it is 2k a month, factor the tax deduction and it is cheaper than rent or rent nuetral. The variables are obviously the wild card in any formula, R/E can overshoot and undershoot, there are no guarantees in life but rent nuetral is a pretty safe play. Rent vs buy is the biggest question any buyer asks themself. Should I rent for 1800 or buy for 2800, if the answer is buy, you were wrong and it results in a repo. When it gets to should I rent for 1800 or buy for 1500 (2k out the door) and get a tax deduction so it’s the same or cheaper to buy, then buy they will, maybe not now while the media is trashing the market but ultimately they will return, as will I. The trick that I haven’t figured out is how long to wait and my own formulas that prevented me at 450k aren’t convincing me at 245k because every week they drop further and like the FB’s were seduced by the ever increasing prices that made they feel they couldn’t lose, I am seduced by the constant reductions that make me feel at some point houses will be free.

[temeculaguy]

Pizza, if you were to plot those data points and attempt to match them to something else in the natural world, guess what they would look exactly like……….fly fishing!!!

[temeculaguy]

Pizza, if you were to plot those data points and attempt to match them to something else in the natural world, guess what they would look exactly like……….fly fishing!!!

[temeculaguy]

Pizza, if you were to plot those data points and attempt to match them to something else in the natural world, guess what they would look exactly like……….fly fishing!!!

[temeculaguy]

Pizza, if you were to plot those data points and attempt to match them to something else in the natural world, guess what they would look exactly like……….fly fishing!!!

[temeculaguy]

Pizza, if you were to plot those data points and attempt to match them to something else in the natural world, guess what they would look exactly like……….fly fishing!!!

[temeculaguy]

The whole area will fall another 10-20% in 2008, right now there is huge disparity between the repos and the resales. I have posted some model matches on other threads for half off a neighbors exact house. Don’t pay in the 400’s for Crowne hill, get on redfin, it’s crawling with price drops and because it was built 2003-2005 it will get hit hard by the repos.

Hemingway has tandem garages but they have a great location so low 400’s is a fair price there but they are selling so slow and they have standing inventory and as Paramount pointed out, they haven’t really lowered the prices in line with the competition. They will get to the 300’s or they will fold, in a year they’ve built about 20 houses, probably sold 15, at this rate it will take them a decade to build out. They haven’t even dropped their prices 100k, around here that is considered out of touch with reality.

I disagree with paramount about the redhawk building codes, they have always been near the top echelon for design and qualilty, what you see that is below par is actually not Redhawk, don’t be fooled by realtors improperly representing a property in redhawk or using the phrase “redhawk area”. The areas that are sub par for the most part are in bridlevale, vail ranch and some other fill in tracts that are not part of the redhawk hoa. I was here when the area incorporated into the city and there is no change, in fact some of the pre-city developments were the best with a couple of exceptions (mostly things built by centex). Here’s an example of one of the dozens of redhawk/golf course view properties that have fallen below the 400 mark. These have true three car garages, not tandem.

http://www.redfin.com/stingray/do/printable-listing?listing-id=852863

This will continue into 2008 and properties like the one above will hit 300, while 400 will get you anything you want.

Morgan is already gone below 400k, here’s a 350k short but it’s a weird floorplan, 2300 sq ft 2 br, that has limited marketability, however if you don’t have kids it might be perfect.

Heres a nice one for 402k, very upgraded, if it wasnt the extreme east of Redhawk I’d throw a 300 or 350 offer at it. It’s not a short, it a true bank owned

http://www.redfin.com/stingray/do/printable-listing?listing-id=1360838

If you look around you will find that 200k off is the norm, with half off being the goal, even with the drops they are not selling, so there’s another 100k to go.

[temeculaguy]

The whole area will fall another 10-20% in 2008, right now there is huge disparity between the repos and the resales. I have posted some model matches on other threads for half off a neighbors exact house. Don’t pay in the 400’s for Crowne hill, get on redfin, it’s crawling with price drops and because it was built 2003-2005 it will get hit hard by the repos.

Hemingway has tandem garages but they have a great location so low 400’s is a fair price there but they are selling so slow and they have standing inventory and as Paramount pointed out, they haven’t really lowered the prices in line with the competition. They will get to the 300’s or they will fold, in a year they’ve built about 20 houses, probably sold 15, at this rate it will take them a decade to build out. They haven’t even dropped their prices 100k, around here that is considered out of touch with reality.

I disagree with paramount about the redhawk building codes, they have always been near the top echelon for design and qualilty, what you see that is below par is actually not Redhawk, don’t be fooled by realtors improperly representing a property in redhawk or using the phrase “redhawk area”. The areas that are sub par for the most part are in bridlevale, vail ranch and some other fill in tracts that are not part of the redhawk hoa. I was here when the area incorporated into the city and there is no change, in fact some of the pre-city developments were the best with a couple of exceptions (mostly things built by centex). Here’s an example of one of the dozens of redhawk/golf course view properties that have fallen below the 400 mark. These have true three car garages, not tandem.

http://www.redfin.com/stingray/do/printable-listing?listing-id=852863

This will continue into 2008 and properties like the one above will hit 300, while 400 will get you anything you want.

Morgan is already gone below 400k, here’s a 350k short but it’s a weird floorplan, 2300 sq ft 2 br, that has limited marketability, however if you don’t have kids it might be perfect.

Heres a nice one for 402k, very upgraded, if it wasnt the extreme east of Redhawk I’d throw a 300 or 350 offer at it. It’s not a short, it a true bank owned

http://www.redfin.com/stingray/do/printable-listing?listing-id=1360838

If you look around you will find that 200k off is the norm, with half off being the goal, even with the drops they are not selling, so there’s another 100k to go.

[temeculaguy]

The whole area will fall another 10-20% in 2008, right now there is huge disparity between the repos and the resales. I have posted some model matches on other threads for half off a neighbors exact house. Don’t pay in the 400’s for Crowne hill, get on redfin, it’s crawling with price drops and because it was built 2003-2005 it will get hit hard by the repos.

Hemingway has tandem garages but they have a great location so low 400’s is a fair price there but they are selling so slow and they have standing inventory and as Paramount pointed out, they haven’t really lowered the prices in line with the competition. They will get to the 300’s or they will fold, in a year they’ve built about 20 houses, probably sold 15, at this rate it will take them a decade to build out. They haven’t even dropped their prices 100k, around here that is considered out of touch with reality.

I disagree with paramount about the redhawk building codes, they have always been near the top echelon for design and qualilty, what you see that is below par is actually not Redhawk, don’t be fooled by realtors improperly representing a property in redhawk or using the phrase “redhawk area”. The areas that are sub par for the most part are in bridlevale, vail ranch and some other fill in tracts that are not part of the redhawk hoa. I was here when the area incorporated into the city and there is no change, in fact some of the pre-city developments were the best with a couple of exceptions (mostly things built by centex). Here’s an example of one of the dozens of redhawk/golf course view properties that have fallen below the 400 mark. These have true three car garages, not tandem.

http://www.redfin.com/stingray/do/printable-listing?listing-id=852863

This will continue into 2008 and properties like the one above will hit 300, while 400 will get you anything you want.

Morgan is already gone below 400k, here’s a 350k short but it’s a weird floorplan, 2300 sq ft 2 br, that has limited marketability, however if you don’t have kids it might be perfect.

Heres a nice one for 402k, very upgraded, if it wasnt the extreme east of Redhawk I’d throw a 300 or 350 offer at it. It’s not a short, it a true bank owned

http://www.redfin.com/stingray/do/printable-listing?listing-id=1360838

If you look around you will find that 200k off is the norm, with half off being the goal, even with the drops they are not selling, so there’s another 100k to go.

[temeculaguy]

The whole area will fall another 10-20% in 2008, right now there is huge disparity between the repos and the resales. I have posted some model matches on other threads for half off a neighbors exact house. Don’t pay in the 400’s for Crowne hill, get on redfin, it’s crawling with price drops and because it was built 2003-2005 it will get hit hard by the repos.

Hemingway has tandem garages but they have a great location so low 400’s is a fair price there but they are selling so slow and they have standing inventory and as Paramount pointed out, they haven’t really lowered the prices in line with the competition. They will get to the 300’s or they will fold, in a year they’ve built about 20 houses, probably sold 15, at this rate it will take them a decade to build out. They haven’t even dropped their prices 100k, around here that is considered out of touch with reality.

I disagree with paramount about the redhawk building codes, they have always been near the top echelon for design and qualilty, what you see that is below par is actually not Redhawk, don’t be fooled by realtors improperly representing a property in redhawk or using the phrase “redhawk area”. The areas that are sub par for the most part are in bridlevale, vail ranch and some other fill in tracts that are not part of the redhawk hoa. I was here when the area incorporated into the city and there is no change, in fact some of the pre-city developments were the best with a couple of exceptions (mostly things built by centex). Here’s an example of one of the dozens of redhawk/golf course view properties that have fallen below the 400 mark. These have true three car garages, not tandem.

http://www.redfin.com/stingray/do/printable-listing?listing-id=852863

This will continue into 2008 and properties like the one above will hit 300, while 400 will get you anything you want.

Morgan is already gone below 400k, here’s a 350k short but it’s a weird floorplan, 2300 sq ft 2 br, that has limited marketability, however if you don’t have kids it might be perfect.

Heres a nice one for 402k, very upgraded, if it wasnt the extreme east of Redhawk I’d throw a 300 or 350 offer at it. It’s not a short, it a true bank owned

http://www.redfin.com/stingray/do/printable-listing?listing-id=1360838

If you look around you will find that 200k off is the norm, with half off being the goal, even with the drops they are not selling, so there’s another 100k to go.

[temeculaguy]

The whole area will fall another 10-20% in 2008, right now there is huge disparity between the repos and the resales. I have posted some model matches on other threads for half off a neighbors exact house. Don’t pay in the 400’s for Crowne hill, get on redfin, it’s crawling with price drops and because it was built 2003-2005 it will get hit hard by the repos.

Hemingway has tandem garages but they have a great location so low 400’s is a fair price there but they are selling so slow and they have standing inventory and as Paramount pointed out, they haven’t really lowered the prices in line with the competition. They will get to the 300’s or they will fold, in a year they’ve built about 20 houses, probably sold 15, at this rate it will take them a decade to build out. They haven’t even dropped their prices 100k, around here that is considered out of touch with reality.

I disagree with paramount about the redhawk building codes, they have always been near the top echelon for design and qualilty, what you see that is below par is actually not Redhawk, don’t be fooled by realtors improperly representing a property in redhawk or using the phrase “redhawk area”. The areas that are sub par for the most part are in bridlevale, vail ranch and some other fill in tracts that are not part of the redhawk hoa. I was here when the area incorporated into the city and there is no change, in fact some of the pre-city developments were the best with a couple of exceptions (mostly things built by centex). Here’s an example of one of the dozens of redhawk/golf course view properties that have fallen below the 400 mark. These have true three car garages, not tandem.

http://www.redfin.com/stingray/do/printable-listing?listing-id=852863

This will continue into 2008 and properties like the one above will hit 300, while 400 will get you anything you want.

Morgan is already gone below 400k, here’s a 350k short but it’s a weird floorplan, 2300 sq ft 2 br, that has limited marketability, however if you don’t have kids it might be perfect.

Heres a nice one for 402k, very upgraded, if it wasnt the extreme east of Redhawk I’d throw a 300 or 350 offer at it. It’s not a short, it a true bank owned

http://www.redfin.com/stingray/do/printable-listing?listing-id=1360838

If you look around you will find that 200k off is the norm, with half off being the goal, even with the drops they are not selling, so there’s another 100k to go.

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