How low would you realistically go?

[sethdallob]

Let me start by saying I am a fellow bubble-ista…my only fault was selling out 18 months too early, thinking we were at the top in late 04…left almost 100k of theoretical money on the table…oh well.

Currently, I’m “hiding out” in my once vacation cabin in the SB Mountains that I bought for $95k and don’t have much to lose on — and, I love the place.

Just for kicks, I was looking at townhomes that happen to be located about 100 feet from my office.

http://www.redfin.com/stingray/do/printable-listing?listing-id=1232632

This sold 10/05 for $315k, and they are asking $215k. There are several similar condos in the same complex, with long listings and recent reductions, which leads me to think their will be motivated sellers. From what I’ve read, most blogs/pontificators suggest the market will go down 30-40% from peak. It looks like the “value” of this condo has already done that…

How much lower do you think it goes? We’re almost back at 2003 prices ($180k) —

I’m definitely in no rush to jump in, but from my readings, it looks like the bubble popped and a lot of the excess value has already disappeared – I don’t expect to have the value rise anytime soon, but I’m interested in losing my commute without losing my shorts.

[golfproz]

To get back to historical “norms” prices will need to drop to 2001 levels. I think the speed and depth of the drops we are already seeing in the IE would indicate that this might be worse than even the most bearish of us have imagined. I am already finding homes 50% off peak in some areas of the IE. 40% off peak (approx 2003 prices) is so easy to find that it’s not even news any more. I’ve already found nice homes selling for $80s/f some areas. It was only a few months ago that $100 s/f was making news. Now you can find hundreds of homes selling for around that. This snowball has just started rolling!

[golfproz]

To get back to historical “norms” prices will need to drop to 2001 levels. I think the speed and depth of the drops we are already seeing in the IE would indicate that this might be worse than even the most bearish of us have imagined. I am already finding homes 50% off peak in some areas of the IE. 40% off peak (approx 2003 prices) is so easy to find that it’s not even news any more. I’ve already found nice homes selling for $80s/f some areas. It was only a few months ago that $100 s/f was making news. Now you can find hundreds of homes selling for around that. This snowball has just started rolling!

[golfproz]

To get back to historical “norms” prices will need to drop to 2001 levels. I think the speed and depth of the drops we are already seeing in the IE would indicate that this might be worse than even the most bearish of us have imagined. I am already finding homes 50% off peak in some areas of the IE. 40% off peak (approx 2003 prices) is so easy to find that it’s not even news any more. I’ve already found nice homes selling for $80s/f some areas. It was only a few months ago that $100 s/f was making news. Now you can find hundreds of homes selling for around that. This snowball has just started rolling!

[golfproz]

To get back to historical “norms” prices will need to drop to 2001 levels. I think the speed and depth of the drops we are already seeing in the IE would indicate that this might be worse than even the most bearish of us have imagined. I am already finding homes 50% off peak in some areas of the IE. 40% off peak (approx 2003 prices) is so easy to find that it’s not even news any more. I’ve already found nice homes selling for $80s/f some areas. It was only a few months ago that $100 s/f was making news. Now you can find hundreds of homes selling for around that. This snowball has just started rolling!

[golfproz]

To get back to historical “norms” prices will need to drop to 2001 levels. I think the speed and depth of the drops we are already seeing in the IE would indicate that this might be worse than even the most bearish of us have imagined. I am already finding homes 50% off peak in some areas of the IE. 40% off peak (approx 2003 prices) is so easy to find that it’s not even news any more. I’ve already found nice homes selling for $80s/f some areas. It was only a few months ago that $100 s/f was making news. Now you can find hundreds of homes selling for around that. This snowball has just started rolling!

[paramount]

I think I understand your position, but can one time the market perfectly?

What’s it worth to reduce your commute? It’s only money, but time is something you can’t get back.

As I have said before, for the average person I would not sit around and waste my life trying to time the market like so many others on this forum.

If the reduction in commute is considerable, and you can afford the new house on conservative/realistic terms and it’s priced right, why not?

In 10 years it won’t really matter that much anyway.

[paramount]

I think I understand your position, but can one time the market perfectly?

What’s it worth to reduce your commute? It’s only money, but time is something you can’t get back.

As I have said before, for the average person I would not sit around and waste my life trying to time the market like so many others on this forum.

If the reduction in commute is considerable, and you can afford the new house on conservative/realistic terms and it’s priced right, why not?

In 10 years it won’t really matter that much anyway.

[paramount]

I think I understand your position, but can one time the market perfectly?

What’s it worth to reduce your commute? It’s only money, but time is something you can’t get back.

As I have said before, for the average person I would not sit around and waste my life trying to time the market like so many others on this forum.

If the reduction in commute is considerable, and you can afford the new house on conservative/realistic terms and it’s priced right, why not?

In 10 years it won’t really matter that much anyway.

[paramount]

I think I understand your position, but can one time the market perfectly?

What’s it worth to reduce your commute? It’s only money, but time is something you can’t get back.

As I have said before, for the average person I would not sit around and waste my life trying to time the market like so many others on this forum.

If the reduction in commute is considerable, and you can afford the new house on conservative/realistic terms and it’s priced right, why not?

In 10 years it won’t really matter that much anyway.

[paramount]

I think I understand your position, but can one time the market perfectly?

What’s it worth to reduce your commute? It’s only money, but time is something you can’t get back.

As I have said before, for the average person I would not sit around and waste my life trying to time the market like so many others on this forum.

If the reduction in commute is considerable, and you can afford the new house on conservative/realistic terms and it’s priced right, why not?

In 10 years it won’t really matter that much anyway.

[sethdallob]

Well, if it does go back to 2001 prices (roughly $125k), and I had reasonable knowledge of such fact, I’d be an idiot to waste $75k. I’m not trying to time the exact bottom here, but there is a big difference between $315k, $210k and $125k.

[sethdallob]

Well, if it does go back to 2001 prices (roughly $125k), and I had reasonable knowledge of such fact, I’d be an idiot to waste $75k. I’m not trying to time the exact bottom here, but there is a big difference between $315k, $210k and $125k.

[sethdallob]

Well, if it does go back to 2001 prices (roughly $125k), and I had reasonable knowledge of such fact, I’d be an idiot to waste $75k. I’m not trying to time the exact bottom here, but there is a big difference between $315k, $210k and $125k.

[sethdallob]

Well, if it does go back to 2001 prices (roughly $125k), and I had reasonable knowledge of such fact, I’d be an idiot to waste $75k. I’m not trying to time the exact bottom here, but there is a big difference between $315k, $210k and $125k.

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