How low would you realistically go?

[temeculaguy]

alarmclock, what happens when the formulas contradict each other or don’t line up. My case is a property that my knife hand has been contemplating while the other hand holds it back.

Formula #1 median 68k x 3 = 204k
Formula #2 rent 1800 x 150=270k
Formula #3 built in 2003 so it’s hard to tell the 2001 but 03 was 265k and early 06 was 450k

My gut tells me that 245k is a balanced price, about 15% less than the bank has it listed at. 2000 sq, 4/3 pretty much a median home for the area.

I use a formula for the balanced price as the rent vs the P&I using 0 down but not counting PMI because the 0 down is only for the formula, when they match, it’s even. I base it only on psychology, when people can buy for the same as rent plus taxes and insurance, they will buy (taking market psychology out of it). Taxes, insurance and maintenance are roughly offset by the tax deduction, the interest on their downpayment had it stayed in the bank will reduce the P&I in an equal amount so that’s a draw. Here’s how it fleshes out using the above scenario. All number are rounded.

borrowing 245k at 6% is 1500, hoa takes it to 1600. Borrowing 450k at 6% is 2700 (2800 w/hoa). So at 450k it was overvalued, at 245 it is undervalued or close to value. Add in hoa, taxes and insurance and it is 2k a month, factor the tax deduction and it is cheaper than rent or rent nuetral. The variables are obviously the wild card in any formula, R/E can overshoot and undershoot, there are no guarantees in life but rent nuetral is a pretty safe play. Rent vs buy is the biggest question any buyer asks themself. Should I rent for 1800 or buy for 2800, if the answer is buy, you were wrong and it results in a repo. When it gets to should I rent for 1800 or buy for 1500 (2k out the door) and get a tax deduction so it’s the same or cheaper to buy, then buy they will, maybe not now while the media is trashing the market but ultimately they will return, as will I. The trick that I haven’t figured out is how long to wait and my own formulas that prevented me at 450k aren’t convincing me at 245k because every week they drop further and like the FB’s were seduced by the ever increasing prices that made they feel they couldn’t lose, I am seduced by the constant reductions that make me feel at some point houses will be free.

[alarmclock]

Just FYI, the irvine blog posted a similar analysis today: http://www.irvinehousingblog.com/2008/01/02/springflower/
(you have to scroll down to actually get to the meat of the article).

He is using an “interest-only” method — the probably cost if a comparable rent was instead an interest-only payment. He also suggests that the bottom rent multiplier for that area is 160.

[alarmclock]

Just FYI, the irvine blog posted a similar analysis today: http://www.irvinehousingblog.com/2008/01/02/springflower/
(you have to scroll down to actually get to the meat of the article).

He is using an “interest-only” method — the probably cost if a comparable rent was instead an interest-only payment. He also suggests that the bottom rent multiplier for that area is 160.

[alarmclock]

Just FYI, the irvine blog posted a similar analysis today: http://www.irvinehousingblog.com/2008/01/02/springflower/
(you have to scroll down to actually get to the meat of the article).

He is using an “interest-only” method — the probably cost if a comparable rent was instead an interest-only payment. He also suggests that the bottom rent multiplier for that area is 160.

[alarmclock]

Just FYI, the irvine blog posted a similar analysis today: http://www.irvinehousingblog.com/2008/01/02/springflower/
(you have to scroll down to actually get to the meat of the article).

He is using an “interest-only” method — the probably cost if a comparable rent was instead an interest-only payment. He also suggests that the bottom rent multiplier for that area is 160.

[alarmclock]

Just FYI, the irvine blog posted a similar analysis today: http://www.irvinehousingblog.com/2008/01/02/springflower/
(you have to scroll down to actually get to the meat of the article).

He is using an “interest-only” method — the probably cost if a comparable rent was instead an interest-only payment. He also suggests that the bottom rent multiplier for that area is 160.

[Author]

Posts