[temeculaguy]

Since the accuracy of a zestimate is akin to the self reported inches of a man’s manhood or a woman’s weight, I would worry what the comps are instead. But without knowing anything else about the purchase, if he bought a year ago, that 200k is toast. Bugs once wrote that you don’t make money in R/E when you sell, you make it when you buy. Those words have been ringing in my ear for weeks.

oops, I fixed a typo and it knocked my post down, making Padre’s post look out of order, my bad.

[temeculaguy]

Since the accuracy of a zestimate is akin to the self reported inches of a man’s manhood or a woman’s weight, I would worry what the comps are instead. But without knowing anything else about the purchase, if he bought a year ago, that 200k is toast. Bugs once wrote that you don’t make money in R/E when you sell, you make it when you buy. Those words have been ringing in my ear for weeks.

oops, I fixed a typo and it knocked my post down, making Padre’s post look out of order, my bad.

[temeculaguy]

Since the accuracy of a zestimate is akin to the self reported inches of a man’s manhood or a woman’s weight, I would worry what the comps are instead. But without knowing anything else about the purchase, if he bought a year ago, that 200k is toast. Bugs once wrote that you don’t make money in R/E when you sell, you make it when you buy. Those words have been ringing in my ear for weeks.

oops, I fixed a typo and it knocked my post down, making Padre’s post look out of order, my bad.

[temeculaguy]

Since the accuracy of a zestimate is akin to the self reported inches of a man’s manhood or a woman’s weight, I would worry what the comps are instead. But without knowing anything else about the purchase, if he bought a year ago, that 200k is toast. Bugs once wrote that you don’t make money in R/E when you sell, you make it when you buy. Those words have been ringing in my ear for weeks.

oops, I fixed a typo and it knocked my post down, making Padre’s post look out of order, my bad.

[temeculaguy]

I personally think late 2011/2012 is too conservative, maybe that will be a good time to buy or the bottom in the more resistant areas but I think the pain train makes it’s first full round trip of S.D. county before the end of 2009. That doesn’t mean it won’t be making regular stops but pain train service to all areas will be fully operational in under 18 months. I just can’t see how the market can hold on for more than three years the way things are going, the math says it can’t. Certain areas of S.D. don’t have pent up demand, they have pent up decline. I’m not one of the posters wringing their hands dealing with estropressure to buy, I kinda like this renting thing now, three or four years of not mowing or fixing anything would be welcome, but I just don’t see it, I see blood in the streets in under 2 years for S.D. since it is already a foot deep in my hood and it only took about 18 months to to get there.

[temeculaguy]

I personally think late 2011/2012 is too conservative, maybe that will be a good time to buy or the bottom in the more resistant areas but I think the pain train makes it’s first full round trip of S.D. county before the end of 2009. That doesn’t mean it won’t be making regular stops but pain train service to all areas will be fully operational in under 18 months. I just can’t see how the market can hold on for more than three years the way things are going, the math says it can’t. Certain areas of S.D. don’t have pent up demand, they have pent up decline. I’m not one of the posters wringing their hands dealing with estropressure to buy, I kinda like this renting thing now, three or four years of not mowing or fixing anything would be welcome, but I just don’t see it, I see blood in the streets in under 2 years for S.D. since it is already a foot deep in my hood and it only took about 18 months to to get there.

[temeculaguy]

I personally think late 2011/2012 is too conservative, maybe that will be a good time to buy or the bottom in the more resistant areas but I think the pain train makes it’s first full round trip of S.D. county before the end of 2009. That doesn’t mean it won’t be making regular stops but pain train service to all areas will be fully operational in under 18 months. I just can’t see how the market can hold on for more than three years the way things are going, the math says it can’t. Certain areas of S.D. don’t have pent up demand, they have pent up decline. I’m not one of the posters wringing their hands dealing with estropressure to buy, I kinda like this renting thing now, three or four years of not mowing or fixing anything would be welcome, but I just don’t see it, I see blood in the streets in under 2 years for S.D. since it is already a foot deep in my hood and it only took about 18 months to to get there.

[temeculaguy]

I personally think late 2011/2012 is too conservative, maybe that will be a good time to buy or the bottom in the more resistant areas but I think the pain train makes it’s first full round trip of S.D. county before the end of 2009. That doesn’t mean it won’t be making regular stops but pain train service to all areas will be fully operational in under 18 months. I just can’t see how the market can hold on for more than three years the way things are going, the math says it can’t. Certain areas of S.D. don’t have pent up demand, they have pent up decline. I’m not one of the posters wringing their hands dealing with estropressure to buy, I kinda like this renting thing now, three or four years of not mowing or fixing anything would be welcome, but I just don’t see it, I see blood in the streets in under 2 years for S.D. since it is already a foot deep in my hood and it only took about 18 months to to get there.

[temeculaguy]

I personally think late 2011/2012 is too conservative, maybe that will be a good time to buy or the bottom in the more resistant areas but I think the pain train makes it’s first full round trip of S.D. county before the end of 2009. That doesn’t mean it won’t be making regular stops but pain train service to all areas will be fully operational in under 18 months. I just can’t see how the market can hold on for more than three years the way things are going, the math says it can’t. Certain areas of S.D. don’t have pent up demand, they have pent up decline. I’m not one of the posters wringing their hands dealing with estropressure to buy, I kinda like this renting thing now, three or four years of not mowing or fixing anything would be welcome, but I just don’t see it, I see blood in the streets in under 2 years for S.D. since it is already a foot deep in my hood and it only took about 18 months to to get there.

[temeculaguy]

You are correct about zillow and bogus listings, it’s completely worthless for that purpose. Redfin has the best map and immrls is the most accurate. I did see a closed sale for the same exact square feet a few streets away on Fox Rd for 365k from two months ago

http://www.redfin.com/stingray/do/printable-property?external_id=12263438

Consider yourself lucky or smart, almost all of the sales in crowne over the last three months have been in the 300’s, and they are trending downwards into the low 3’s as the more recent they are. Almost all of the listings are in the 3’s, look for closings in september to be primarily $100 a square, the bigger ones are already there.

http://www.redfin.com/stingray/do/printable-listing?listing-id=1475515

The sub 3000 sq fters are asking closer to $135 a square, when gas hits $4.50 in July and August, we will see another 10% chunk come out of the local market. I only toured some of the models when they were building crown hill and can’t remember which ones were built by KB, but those were built rather cheaply and should be worth less than the others up there.

[temeculaguy]

You are correct about zillow and bogus listings, it’s completely worthless for that purpose. Redfin has the best map and immrls is the most accurate. I did see a closed sale for the same exact square feet a few streets away on Fox Rd for 365k from two months ago

http://www.redfin.com/stingray/do/printable-property?external_id=12263438

Consider yourself lucky or smart, almost all of the sales in crowne over the last three months have been in the 300’s, and they are trending downwards into the low 3’s as the more recent they are. Almost all of the listings are in the 3’s, look for closings in september to be primarily $100 a square, the bigger ones are already there.

http://www.redfin.com/stingray/do/printable-listing?listing-id=1475515

The sub 3000 sq fters are asking closer to $135 a square, when gas hits $4.50 in July and August, we will see another 10% chunk come out of the local market. I only toured some of the models when they were building crown hill and can’t remember which ones were built by KB, but those were built rather cheaply and should be worth less than the others up there.

[temeculaguy]

You are correct about zillow and bogus listings, it’s completely worthless for that purpose. Redfin has the best map and immrls is the most accurate. I did see a closed sale for the same exact square feet a few streets away on Fox Rd for 365k from two months ago

http://www.redfin.com/stingray/do/printable-property?external_id=12263438

Consider yourself lucky or smart, almost all of the sales in crowne over the last three months have been in the 300’s, and they are trending downwards into the low 3’s as the more recent they are. Almost all of the listings are in the 3’s, look for closings in september to be primarily $100 a square, the bigger ones are already there.

http://www.redfin.com/stingray/do/printable-listing?listing-id=1475515

The sub 3000 sq fters are asking closer to $135 a square, when gas hits $4.50 in July and August, we will see another 10% chunk come out of the local market. I only toured some of the models when they were building crown hill and can’t remember which ones were built by KB, but those were built rather cheaply and should be worth less than the others up there.

[temeculaguy]

You are correct about zillow and bogus listings, it’s completely worthless for that purpose. Redfin has the best map and immrls is the most accurate. I did see a closed sale for the same exact square feet a few streets away on Fox Rd for 365k from two months ago

http://www.redfin.com/stingray/do/printable-property?external_id=12263438

Consider yourself lucky or smart, almost all of the sales in crowne over the last three months have been in the 300’s, and they are trending downwards into the low 3’s as the more recent they are. Almost all of the listings are in the 3’s, look for closings in september to be primarily $100 a square, the bigger ones are already there.

http://www.redfin.com/stingray/do/printable-listing?listing-id=1475515

The sub 3000 sq fters are asking closer to $135 a square, when gas hits $4.50 in July and August, we will see another 10% chunk come out of the local market. I only toured some of the models when they were building crown hill and can’t remember which ones were built by KB, but those were built rather cheaply and should be worth less than the others up there.

[temeculaguy]

You are correct about zillow and bogus listings, it’s completely worthless for that purpose. Redfin has the best map and immrls is the most accurate. I did see a closed sale for the same exact square feet a few streets away on Fox Rd for 365k from two months ago

http://www.redfin.com/stingray/do/printable-property?external_id=12263438

Consider yourself lucky or smart, almost all of the sales in crowne over the last three months have been in the 300’s, and they are trending downwards into the low 3’s as the more recent they are. Almost all of the listings are in the 3’s, look for closings in september to be primarily $100 a square, the bigger ones are already there.

http://www.redfin.com/stingray/do/printable-listing?listing-id=1475515

The sub 3000 sq fters are asking closer to $135 a square, when gas hits $4.50 in July and August, we will see another 10% chunk come out of the local market. I only toured some of the models when they were building crown hill and can’t remember which ones were built by KB, but those were built rather cheaply and should be worth less than the others up there.

[temeculaguy]

There may be more than a triple whammy. At every point in history when a normal cycle hit bottom, the majority could just sit tight. Now it is not the case. Forget sub-prime, it was rampant in prime. At no time in history has even 20% of the mortgages been adjustable, neg am, teaser, etc. During the bubble in S.D. the number of non traditional mortgages exceeded 80% of new purchase financing in the county. Never before have we seen this dynamic, where time is against people attempting to ride it out. I’ve never seen anyone release data as specific as I need to illustrate this point, but buyers in 2004,2005,2006 and their percentage of underwater, distress and resetting mortgages with no viable escape and no ability to ride it out, what is their foreclosure rate? I’ll bet it breaks 50% for that specific group before we are all done. At no time has the average Southern California been so ill equipped to ride out the bottom, not even close, so anything that happens wont suprise me.

[Author]

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