When will be a good time to buy in san diego?

[sdbubble]

Im a student of the markets, but not housing specifically. I want to get everyones opinion on what will be the earliest we will hit bottom in the san diego bubble burst.

The graphic I love the most on this site is the one that shows the historic median income to medium home price.

You can see how many years it took the previous bubbles to hit bottom (in the 7 year range). Not only that, but we hit the bottom of the trough after each bubble bust.

The magnitude of this bubble, however, is far greater, and it holds many additional risks.

If we grinded down at the same rate of previous bubbles it could easily take 15-20 years to hit bottom.

However, we are falling at record breaking rates, so I dont think it will take nearly as long. We may even see panic selling near the bottom where really cheap deals will show themselves with tons of fire sales out there.

Because of the fast rate of fall, im thinking that the Fall of 2009 may be a decent early buying opportunity, if things dont change and get even worse than they are. It may not be the bottom, but close enough that you wont lose your ass if you buy a home at the point.

Im in the market for a home, but there is no way in hell im buying any time soon.

What do you think? Still too risky by the end of 2009?

Question 2
What do you think is the probability that we hit the bottom of the median income to median home price trough during this bubble crash?

[DWCAP]

Who says that all areas will bottom together? Where are you looking. Places like MM are falling so fast that it is rediculus and fall 09 may be a great time to buy as nothing will happen for the next few years. (maybe not….)
On the other hand CV, 4$, and the costal communities in the North county are a very different animal. These places used 5 year arms and neg ams, and they dont reset till late 09 at the earliest. Give it 6-9 months for the trouble to be observed in NOD’s and NOT’s and you are looking at fall of 2010 before the real magic begins.
The economy matters, no matter what if the economy is going to hell, the bottom wont be seen. If we are in recession till 2009 all the forecasts and bets you see published are off. If we regain speed in the fall like it is foreseen, then you have a plan that may work out.

[DWCAP]

Who says that all areas will bottom together? Where are you looking. Places like MM are falling so fast that it is rediculus and fall 09 may be a great time to buy as nothing will happen for the next few years. (maybe not….)
On the other hand CV, 4$, and the costal communities in the North county are a very different animal. These places used 5 year arms and neg ams, and they dont reset till late 09 at the earliest. Give it 6-9 months for the trouble to be observed in NOD’s and NOT’s and you are looking at fall of 2010 before the real magic begins.
The economy matters, no matter what if the economy is going to hell, the bottom wont be seen. If we are in recession till 2009 all the forecasts and bets you see published are off. If we regain speed in the fall like it is foreseen, then you have a plan that may work out.

[DWCAP]

Who says that all areas will bottom together? Where are you looking. Places like MM are falling so fast that it is rediculus and fall 09 may be a great time to buy as nothing will happen for the next few years. (maybe not….)
On the other hand CV, 4$, and the costal communities in the North county are a very different animal. These places used 5 year arms and neg ams, and they dont reset till late 09 at the earliest. Give it 6-9 months for the trouble to be observed in NOD’s and NOT’s and you are looking at fall of 2010 before the real magic begins.
The economy matters, no matter what if the economy is going to hell, the bottom wont be seen. If we are in recession till 2009 all the forecasts and bets you see published are off. If we regain speed in the fall like it is foreseen, then you have a plan that may work out.

[DWCAP]

Who says that all areas will bottom together? Where are you looking. Places like MM are falling so fast that it is rediculus and fall 09 may be a great time to buy as nothing will happen for the next few years. (maybe not….)
On the other hand CV, 4$, and the costal communities in the North county are a very different animal. These places used 5 year arms and neg ams, and they dont reset till late 09 at the earliest. Give it 6-9 months for the trouble to be observed in NOD’s and NOT’s and you are looking at fall of 2010 before the real magic begins.
The economy matters, no matter what if the economy is going to hell, the bottom wont be seen. If we are in recession till 2009 all the forecasts and bets you see published are off. If we regain speed in the fall like it is foreseen, then you have a plan that may work out.

[DWCAP]

Who says that all areas will bottom together? Where are you looking. Places like MM are falling so fast that it is rediculus and fall 09 may be a great time to buy as nothing will happen for the next few years. (maybe not….)
On the other hand CV, 4$, and the costal communities in the North county are a very different animal. These places used 5 year arms and neg ams, and they dont reset till late 09 at the earliest. Give it 6-9 months for the trouble to be observed in NOD’s and NOT’s and you are looking at fall of 2010 before the real magic begins.
The economy matters, no matter what if the economy is going to hell, the bottom wont be seen. If we are in recession till 2009 all the forecasts and bets you see published are off. If we regain speed in the fall like it is foreseen, then you have a plan that may work out.

[sdbubble]

Point taken, even within a local area like san diego, real estate is still local, LOL. Just trying to zoom in on a general range.

I plan on buying something about 3 miles from the coast, dont want to pay too much premium. Something like west clairemont, or north park/south park, up to about carmel valley. Kinda in the middle and slightly east of the coast. Somewhere in that band, while avoiding too much air traffic noise.

Its surprisingly difficult. The san diego lay out is really quite a mess LOL

[sdbubble]

Point taken, even within a local area like san diego, real estate is still local, LOL. Just trying to zoom in on a general range.

I plan on buying something about 3 miles from the coast, dont want to pay too much premium. Something like west clairemont, or north park/south park, up to about carmel valley. Kinda in the middle and slightly east of the coast. Somewhere in that band, while avoiding too much air traffic noise.

Its surprisingly difficult. The san diego lay out is really quite a mess LOL

[sdbubble]

Point taken, even within a local area like san diego, real estate is still local, LOL. Just trying to zoom in on a general range.

I plan on buying something about 3 miles from the coast, dont want to pay too much premium. Something like west clairemont, or north park/south park, up to about carmel valley. Kinda in the middle and slightly east of the coast. Somewhere in that band, while avoiding too much air traffic noise.

Its surprisingly difficult. The san diego lay out is really quite a mess LOL

[sdbubble]

Point taken, even within a local area like san diego, real estate is still local, LOL. Just trying to zoom in on a general range.

I plan on buying something about 3 miles from the coast, dont want to pay too much premium. Something like west clairemont, or north park/south park, up to about carmel valley. Kinda in the middle and slightly east of the coast. Somewhere in that band, while avoiding too much air traffic noise.

Its surprisingly difficult. The san diego lay out is really quite a mess LOL

[sdbubble]

Point taken, even within a local area like san diego, real estate is still local, LOL. Just trying to zoom in on a general range.

I plan on buying something about 3 miles from the coast, dont want to pay too much premium. Something like west clairemont, or north park/south park, up to about carmel valley. Kinda in the middle and slightly east of the coast. Somewhere in that band, while avoiding too much air traffic noise.

Its surprisingly difficult. The san diego lay out is really quite a mess LOL

[j]

Watch the foreclosure data, because it will foretell the market.
http://www.foreclosureforum.com/stats.html

Remember we are only in year 3 of the correction; last time it took 7 years.

[j]

Watch the foreclosure data, because it will foretell the market.
http://www.foreclosureforum.com/stats.html

Remember we are only in year 3 of the correction; last time it took 7 years.

[j]

Watch the foreclosure data, because it will foretell the market.
http://www.foreclosureforum.com/stats.html

Remember we are only in year 3 of the correction; last time it took 7 years.

[j]

Watch the foreclosure data, because it will foretell the market.
http://www.foreclosureforum.com/stats.html

Remember we are only in year 3 of the correction; last time it took 7 years.

[Author]

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