[temeculaguy]

This will fizzle out because as I just posted on the recession thread, the recession will end and none of this will matter. Why you ask? Because of the Detroit Lions and the Detroit Tigers.

This isn’t a joke, the last bad economic times we felt were the late 1970’s and the 1980 US Olympic Hockey team ended that. It’s well documented, don’t watch the movie “miracle,” watch the documentary.

You people believe it was foreign policy, politics, Reagan. Hogwash, it was the hockey team. I cry every time I watch that documentary right when Al Michaels screams “do you believe in miracles.” Because they saved us from the russians and opec. College kids beat Russian pros, against all odds and energized a nation.

Tonight, the lions went to 5-0, the freaking lions, the worst team in football from the worst hit city in America. The crowd was galvanized and energized. they punked the bears in statistical ways never before done in the bears 92 year history. I thought I heard chants of “U S A” in the back of my mind circa 1980. The detroit tigers may go to the world series 9I can;t describe the games because baseball makes me fall asleep faster than tylenol PM).

But that’s it, the protests will end, the epitome of the working man, the detroit fan, has started the next real revolution. I’m not a detroit sports fan, but i am a student of the human collective psyche, that same psyche that propelled New Orleans to a superbowl post katrina and if all you do is read about politics and believe in politics, you are going to miss the truth as it happens. I still think the packers win the division, but I’m smart enough not to bet against the lions at home because the world just changed, just like it did in 1980. This revolution will start in the motor city and it wont be because of voting.

[temeculaguy]

I’m feeling a little saucy tonight. I’m too lazy to search for the threads but I believe I called bottom for R/E at the end of 08, early 09 and it’s been substantiated for the most part, so I’ve got some street credibility here. I also called the dow bottom so I think I can go out on a limb, trust my gut and I’m going to call the end of the recession as right now, specifically two days ago, on Saturday night. I do not expect any fantastic growth tomorrow, or even for the next year, but I think I felt that tickle, that turnaround, and I had this epiphany on Saturday. I also expect lagging indicators to do what they do best, and that is lag. Maybe it’s just me but here are my anecdotal reasons, all from this month or so.

I priced airline tickets to NYC a few months ago, pulled the trigger a few weeks ago, despite falling fuel prices, planes started filling up, I had to pay about $75 more per seat.

I made my hotel reservations, even though it’s three months away, price went up $75 a night for a very bland week January.

My work occasionally takes me to downtown SD, as it has for about a decade, in short spurts, right now I’ve had to go there a lot lately. Traffic is up, lunch is unbearable (sushi deli is 30 minutes for take out) and I go more toward 1 pm. My noon jog through seaport village and downtown is now more about carving my way through shoppers and workers than it was during my last stint there, reminds me of stints during 2003 and 2007, but nothing like six months ago, seaport village is packed and there are no cruise ships any more.

Two weeks ago, hit the local casino with the fellas, we couldn’t get a card table together, haven’t seen that in a while. I ended up playing blackjack just cause I could get a seat, I hate blackjack.

A little more than a month ago, went out with sdrealtor and friends in Temecula on a Sunday night. We got the last tickets to a Sunday jazz concert, $75 to stand in the back, the $300 seats were completely sold out, as was every seat, the restaurant we went to, late (after 9 pm), was also packed.

This last Saturday I went to that same restaurant, the Public house, nearly a two hour wait and they wont take reservations, and I got there at 6. They don’t even give you a buzzer thing and send you the bar, because you’ll be passed out by the time they have a table for you, they actually call your cell when they have a table.

Ran into the same thing in Encinitas three weeks ago at solace, was told the wait was more than an hour and 45 minutes. That’s not a wait, that’s the average length of a movie. I keep running into this, in multiple towns, where I can put my name on the wait list of a restaurant, go see a movie, and be back before they call my name.

If all I did was stay home and read piggington or other websites, the world is coming apart at the seams, if I leave my house, I feel like it’s 2006 and I’m the only guy with stock rims in a paid off car. Speaking of cars, my car shopping has yielded similar indications of consumer confidence, now that it’s getting to be about that time to take the plunge and get a new sled, I’m not finding the prices I was finding three months ago. I let a 2001 carrera cabrio garage queen with 50k miles go to some other schmuck for 20k, now I can’t find one this side of 24k that is in similar condition. 2006 vettes, 2003 XKR’s, same story, the liquidation of toys has ended. I’m going to end up driving a sonata and castrating myself with a butter knife out of frustration.

So I’m calling it, Let’s say October 8th, about 6 pm, recession ended officially.

[temeculaguy]

[quote=walterwhite]I like meadowview the very best but my wife wasn’t into it.

Check it out– right by the mall 1/2 acre lots, kind of hidden.

Still cheap.

I love it there.

i like this one:

http://www.redfin.com/CA/Temecula/29880-La-Corona-Ct-92591/home/6181344%5B/quote%5D

I like meadowview as well, but it’s another type of housing being that it is all half acres+ and customs, not really comparable to a tract house. It’s also rarely in the same price range. That one looks to be a steal, but it’s pending and we cannot be sure at what price it is pending, my guess is it is peding over list. It’s also bank owned, yet it’s staged. If the realtor went to the trouble of staging and sprucing up a repo, they are looking to maximize the price, not dump it to the first knucklehad that walks in. Further causing me to think it will go for over list (plus it’s zillow is 370k). But’s it’s a find, if it can be had for 350K, that is it’s 2002 price and only 100k over the 1999 price, if I wanted land (which I hate nearly as much as breast reduction surgeries) I would be all over that place in a second.

[temeculaguy]

I just re-read your post and see that you are mostly trying to decide between new vs. repo vs. short. vs. resale. I mostly hit on that but I think the inventory is tightening up again. Here is an old thread that may help strategy wise because I boguht when it was equally tight, albeit a little cheaper because the wheels were coming off the economy, but the game remains the same.

http://piggington.com/tg_closes_escrow

here’s some past morgan hill threads to chew on, some had an influence on my decision

http://piggington.com/morgan_hill_and_morgan_valley_stats

http://piggington.com/recap_on_temeclua_murrieta_french_valley_etc

[temeculaguy]

Are you trying to decide on Morgan Hill vs. other developments or specifically Standard Pacific’s Estates tract vs. other tracts in Morgan Hill?

I currently live in Morgan Hill, and two others who are infrequent posters now but were active in the past (TemekuT and Bearvine) both actually know more than I and did influence my decision three years ago. If you search for “morgan” in the search box on this site yo can read a lot of threads specifically dedicated to morgan or the differences between the tracts. I’ve lived in Redhawk for 9 years and will always love it. I have immediate family there and other family in Wolf Creek and they love it there. It’s just preference, benefits and cost. Redhawk has the lowest taxes of the three (about 1% +1k/yr), the lowest hoa ($35) but other than pretty landscaping and the waterfall, no clubhouse or pool. Wolf is on flat land and is close to stuff like mentioned above, but that sports park is one of the nicest in the country, all three levels of school are a walk away, soon to be some stores, some people dig that, plus it’s new. It has the middle level of HOA (I’m not exactly sure but maybe $75) and has a pool and clubhouse and stuff. The taxes are about 1% + 1800 or 2k/ yr. Morgan has a clubhouse nicer than most Marriots, multiple tennis courts, clubhouse that is wedding quality, pool tables, foosball, air hockey, kids art rooms and full schedules, yoga classes, and on and on. It’s always staffed, they let you check out basketballs, tennis rackets, even the pool floating noodle things. You don’t need to haul stuff there. fingerprint biometrics to enter, full gym and a pool that is epic and never crowded. But you pay, taxes are 1% +3k/yr and $110 for HOA. Other than the elementary school, walking to the middle school is a bear because while it’s only a mile, it’s all up hill getting home. The high school is a difficult hilly bike ride at best. It’s also more expensive, the view lots usually have small backyards. I like it, but I don’t dislike the other spots, or even quite a few other places in and around Temecula. Orange County and 4S type demographic transplants seem to gravitate to morgan. I kinda like it because it has a low ratio of monster trucks, but the hoa places tend to be nicer and stay nicer up here because the dirt people avoid them because of the restrictions on their toys so that’s not unique to morgan.

Now if you just want to know about that tract. Standard Pacific is a national builder, they use local subcontractors and people who who bought stan pac homes in wolf creek that I know really like their homes, so it should be similar. national builders build a variety of products in different places, I don’t think you can knock any builder for homes they build in a different market segment or another area, it’s just not like McDonalds, it’s not the same everywhere just because the name is the same.

I gave a friend and his wife a tour of the morgan tracts last weekend. The dropped me off and went to the models for a few of the new ones without me so I haven’t seen them. I spoke to them afterwards and the prices seemed a little high, in the 400’s for the size they wanted and those were about 350k in the 2005-2008 built tracts as repos or resales, so it seemed high to me. They also look kinda plain, but those might not be the stan pac ones, there are multiple builders in morgan, even multiple new builders so I may be mixing them up. My worry is that they might be cutting corners because margins are slimmer, but they also might not be because they bought the remaining lots at a discount. The 2005-2008 built resales were built when money was growing on trees and were selling for 500-700k, so most of them are heavily upgraded and have lots of money put into them in hardscape and stuff by the bubble buyers who took no equity second mortgages. There are some steals to be had but pickings are slim because it is one of the nicest developments. Everyone we looked at on Saturday was in escrow if it was reasonably priced. The majority of the bubble bought ones have turned over so there will be no tsunami, yet it should be fairly steady. Morgan valley is not part of the morgan hill hoa or the clubhouse, it’s a different category of housing, 1/2 acre lots and 4k sq feet, 4 car garages in some, rear garage doors so you can drive trough into your backyard, I’m not comparing those, that’s another category, here’s a morgan valley example

http://www.redfin.com/CA/Temecula/34100-Center-Stone-Cir-92592/home/12275290

morgan hill is primarily tract homes with the exception of frogs leap and arietta streets which are within morgan hill but a class above a tract home. here’s a frogs leap morgan hill example

http://www.redfin.com/CA/Temecula/44752-Frogs-Leap-St-92592/home/12504441

I just checked and the plain ones I was referencing are richmond homes. But my comparison of a 350k home new looks like this

http://www.redfin.com/CA/Temecula/34164-San-Simeon-St-92592/home/22545896

youll notice its 2100 sq ft, minimal view and a 2 car garage.

but the west side of butterfield looks more like this for 350k

http://www.redfin.com/CA/Temecula/44819-Mumm-St-92592/home/6570516

you cant see the view because there no pictures of it but its really nice, it’s six years old but 1/3 larger and 1/3 more garages for the same money.

This next one is the same size as the new one, same garages but listed for 100k less, Page 2 of the pictures has some pics of the clubhouse, but not great pics, yet worth a look

http://www.redfin.com/CA/Temecula/44821-Destino-St-92592/home/12507040

So my assessment is why pay 350k for a new house with no view or landscaping when for 250k you can get a view. I just think the new ones are priced too high, but they are selling. And truth be told, that 250k went pending instantly, my guess is that it went for 300k, if not more, that was a bidding war listing price, it’s fair price is 300-325k, but still, the view is awesome and I know the 3000k sq ft resales are going for 350k, so what makes a 2100 sq ft unlandscaped one worth 350k?

Now my buddy said the stan pac ones had big yards and views and he said they were nice, so I can’t give an opinion until I go look at them personally. As far as the neighborhood, I love it. In 20 years in this valley I’ve owned or rented 7 places, a north temecula, a murrieta, 3 redhawks and now a morgan, I’ve been in morgan three years and can honestly say, this is my favorite, but the redhawks were a close second in my mind. Lower taxes and lower hoa. Between the three major developments of south temecula, I see it as a personal decision, each has a drawback and a benefit, just pick the things important to you and you can’t lose.

[temeculaguy]

[quote=walterwhite]A good double feature would be the 2009 claymation feature MAry and Max about a guy w aspergers who hates change. Really funny. Might be called max and Mary. Instant view on netflix.[/quote]

Sometimes I’ll write something late at night and then re-read it and realize that it didn’t make much sense. Thankfully I have walter to come in and make my ramblings look clear and concise by comparison. Thanks for the save walter.

[temeculaguy]

Thanks for the props sduuuude, the egomaniac inside of me is gushing. But I think the OP will be fine, as of this moment he beat all of his neighbors, maybe one, maybe two come in after him and beat him, but maybe not. For all the bashing 4S gets, people love it, people with money especially love it. I concur, get some sleep, you did good holding out and you only get so many years on the planet so enjoy some of them.

Since it’s late and I have a penchant for analogies, let me make one about holding out for the best possible price and the best possible woman. For 8 years I held out for the perfect woman (not that dating imperfect ones was any great chore, no pity party needed) but I found myself finding flaws or forecasting problems and ending relationships. Then it hits me, just find one that makes you happy, hold on and enjoy the ride. There is no perfect house, there is no absolute bottom, there are no guarantees that there will never be a drop in value or a rise in value, just get you what you want at a price you can afford and enjoy the ride. Because there is no perfect woman, there will be bad days, there will be a difference of opinion, there will be bigger boobs, their will be a prettier face and there will be a more pleasant disposition, but never at the same time or for very long and how fun is it watching life go by without you when in the end all that stuff doesn’t really matter, just be happy and find what works for you and enjoy the ride.

I’ll quote a movie, Parenthood, with Steve martin from a few years back. In it Steve martin and his wife are frazzled and want their life to be simple and predictable. Then grandma say “I always hated the merry-go-round, it just goes round and round. I like the roller coaster, it goes up and down, it’s exciting.”

Welcome to the roller coaster 9 year renter, you’ll like it!

[temeculaguy]

Wait! Before I go curl up in the fetal position and cry myself to sleep because of my financial misteps of the past, I have one more observation.

If this is 1995, we have about two more years of slow and flat pricing, most piggies have bought their primary home, but are we the type to shed the constant fear and get a rental before time runs out? Will we see the signs? I know I won’t, I’ve missed that boat so many times I own my own chair on the docks. But some of you have to be reading this and look at the next two years as the time to make a killing, I’ll probably just send my kids to college, buy a convertible and write stories about how i missed out on the 2011-2012 missed opportunity, but that what i do, and of course use too many commas and not capatilize certain words, why change now, its my style and I’m comfortable with it.

[temeculaguy]

[quote=Rich Toscano][quote=ctr70]1991-1996 was another time people though California real estate was finished and would never come back. I think 1996 was more like the bottom. But it was still really cheap in San Diego even up to 2000. If we say 2008 was year 1 of crash, that puts us at about late 1994 right now.[/quote]

If memory serves, 1996 was the nominal bottom and 1997 was the bottom in real terms. That’s in aggregate, of course it could differ by area.

Home prices peaked in late 05/early 06, so I don’t think it’s correct to use 2008 as year 1 of the crash. The 1990 market peaked in spring, so I’d say 2006 is equivalent to 1990. That puts us equivalent to 1995, for what it’s worth.[/quote]

I think rich is correct, but ctr’s observation of 2000 being still cheap, some areas had already began a steady climb by then. I remember 1998 in particular up here as being a banner year. I put money down in early 1998 or late 1997 and by the time the home was built in the summer of 1998, I could have sold it at a sizable profit (maybe 20-30%). I remember thinking I wouldn’t have been able to afford that house had I not locked in the price 8 months or so earlier, it was going up 5-10% per phase back then for new construction and the phases seemed to be every 2 months.

I also remember my house before that which I bought about 1992 and was underwater until about 1997, sold it to buy the bigger house mentioned above and pretty much broke even. Only to watch that house triple or quadruple in value over the next decade, which I still kick myself for selling it since it was rent nuetral even at it’s lowpoint, but i feared it would still go down (there was barely an internet then so I can only blame newspaper articles for my fear). But even today, as bad as things are, that old place is worth between double and triple what I sold it for in 1997 and it rents for more than double what the mortgage was (which would only have 11 years left on it today). God dammit!!!! I freaking hate this memory lane stuff, this is worse than my high school reuinion where the girls i blew off in high school turned out to be the hottest mid forties gals on the planet, with good jobs to boot. I’m going to bed.

[temeculaguy]

[quote=walterwhite]Have any of you guys ever had sex on tempurpedic?[/quote]

The mattress doesn’t matter because you should be sporting a liberator, start with the wedge/ramp combo, spend the extra on the black label line just for the options. Do I have to do everything? Where would you people be without me? Your wives can thank me later, you guys need to stoke the home fire now and again.

My place is furnished by liberator and craigslist (however don’t buy used liberator stuff, icky).

The Chaise lounge is next on my furniture shopping list, now that’s a designer piece of furniture, I believe they would call that in artistic circles as the perfect blend of art and function.

I provided no link on purpose, you will understand after you search for it. The stuff is pricy, but worth it, trust me on this one.

[temeculaguy]

I’m not sure the Pat and Oscars closing is a local barometer. They closed their Carlsbad and El Cajon locations as well, even read their carmel valley location is closed. I found some articles and those may have been the only ones that weren’t franchised and part of a Chapter 7 by the corporation. But places come and go for a variety of reasons, however I’ve seen more places open than I’ve seen close so maybe that’s why I have a rosy view. I also think that Carlsbad has a bright future, yet for whatever reason, places close there as well.

http://www.nctimes.com/business/article_ccb766d4-dcaf-5dfc-ad1a-5954b21fdb7a.html

http://temecula.patch.com/articles/pat-oscars-closes-amidst-layoffs

I’ll bet something else goes in, they have a great location, could use a bigger parking lot though. I really think there is more to the story as far as the company goes, because of all the times I’ve been there, you have trouble finding a parking spot and even though it’s huge inside, sometimes getting a table is a problem.

[temeculaguy]

I just signed docs tonight. My scenario is unique, so your results may vary. I originally bought with 5% down FHA 6% no points, then about a year later refi’d for 5% with no points, still FHA. My reasoning at the time was I needed my cash because my trashed repo needed me to put cash into it to make it livable and I was scared about the coming apocolypse due to the many wing nut posters here talking about spam and ammo.

Well despite all the prognostications of the wasteland and overbuilt Temecula that I was buying in, the opposite occured. We churned through the inventory and the bubble purchases folded before the moratoriums and the prices have risen slowly since. So much so that despite putting 5% down about 2 1/2 years ago and about the equivalent of another 5-10% in repairs, my appraisal came in showing I had 30% equity. So my refi was conventional and a no points 4 3/8 but I got out of the PMI and a pro rated MIP refund. I figure the the drop in payment is between 15 and 20% (mostly because of the PMI), effectively the difference between a 30 and a 15 year loan. If I make the same payment as I had been making the refi can effectively bring me close to a 15 year loan. At a minimum, I shaved 10 years off my mortgage. I’m lucky with respects to the increase in value and because I have a childhood friend in the loan biz, but I didn’t do anything anyone else couldn’t do. In fact i could have gotten a better rate, but I always choose the cheapest option, in fact I’m getting a bunch of money back because of the bloated escrow account, the higher than market rate, skipping a payment and the MIP rebate. I’m against paying points, always have been, life is too fluid. Now I don’t have a view of T.J. mind you, but I digress.

Now I have to go get some ice for my arm, it’s sore from patting myself on the back.

P.S., it’s still non recourse

[temeculaguy]

Follow BG’s advice and come rent. Unfortunately 200k is not an SFR budget in this county, it is a downpayment. From your name I’m guessing you are coming from possibly Canada. The locations where you can pay under 200k cash for an SFR will require locals to make some “adjustments,” coming from Canada, you will likely have seizures. I’m not attacking specific town, more so specific neighborhoods. Every town has dicey areas and the r/e prices reflect that, but the sub 200k sfr’s will probably have to be the diciest street of the diciest neighborhood of the diciest town. Sub 200 condo and you’ve got options, lots of them, sub 200k sfr, and that’s bunker prices.

[temeculaguy]

Forget asian markets, that house in El Cajon is one of the ugliest houses I’ve ever seen. I thought I clicked on the “worst of the mls” thread. I would drive 4 hours a day to work to not live in that house. I did some calculations, a house over 400k, using my 1/3 of annual income affordability theory, means the income of the potential buyer is 140k. People who make 140k would rather rent somewhere else than live in 1960’s hell. Why even fix it up, your neighbors aren’t going to fix theirs. Your coctail party conversations will include topics such as “why nascar is better than formula 1” “or how meth isn’t that bad for you, it’s all media hype.”

I would be willing to put up some cash if a few thousands others joined in, and buy that place for brian, with the condition that he cant sell it for 30 years and he has to live there. In fact, I think I could sell that as a reality tv show to a studio.

BG, you are a nice gal, but you have to admit that your tastes do not jive with the vast majority of the population. You should take advantage of the fact that you won’t have to compete for things with everyone else.

Personally, I see my house as a place that makes me happy, it’s also a reflection of me, not unlike cars are to some people. But one of the things it needs to do, other than provide shelter, is that it is a component in the ovrall art of seduction. If I lived there, I wouldn’t even allow myself to take my own clothes off, let alone reach any of the bases.

[temeculaguy]

[quote=svelte][quote=sdrealtor]Its a unicorn.[/quote]

A single female?[/quote]

Oh no, there are litlerally flocks of those, always will be, but this is a banner year.

[Author]

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