[temeculaguy]

Thanks CAR, the reason I was asking was at some point you have to figure out the investor support level, they aren’t tied to certain area, they don’t factor the commute so much since they only make the trip occasionally and not during peak traffic time. Large, expensive, large lot sfr’s with terrible rent multipliers will not bring the investors out of the woodwork (there are knuckleheads everywhere, so there will always be some) but they won’t become a large competing force.

Unfortunately we don’t know the pre bubble rent multiplier of the last down cycle, so we can’t compare it but it sounds like you have a sweet deal and something very sustainable, no wonder you don’t want to buy, I wouldn’t either. My market caught fire once renting became more expensive than buying, that was my sign, but it had happened during the last downturn which ended up being the bottom so I waited for that as the indication, if you can figure out what the lowest rent multipler was in your area’s last downturn, then you can figure out about where the bottom will be. That was my methodology, not sure if it is a transferable theory. My market overshot it’s 1996 numbers, but in these volatile times, overshooting was expected, your market wasn’t as volatile to the upside so logic says it wont be as volatile to the downside. There is also an interest rate consideration when looking at historical figures, monthly payment trumps actual sales price, so it get complicated.

You may also want to track the historical multiplier for traditional rental housing, like small places or condos, there’s more data and the numbers are more pure, higher end rentals are not as good for statistical purposes.

650k at 5% is $3500 P&I, rent parity would be reached at 475k, so that is as good as it will get IMO, that’s when the historical info comes in, my guess is that it will swing that number up if rent parity wasn’t reached during the last cycle.

In summary, I feel terrible for you, it’s as if your parents have set your curfew at 9pm while all your friends have a midnight curfew, you can’t get new parents, you can’t change their minds and all your friends are out having fun. With the recent activity and lack of inventory, it’s like you just had a birthday, expected your curfew to be extended to a more tolerable, yet not ideal 10pm and they dropped it to 8pm.

[temeculaguy]

Thanks CAR, the reason I was asking was at some point you have to figure out the investor support level, they aren’t tied to certain area, they don’t factor the commute so much since they only make the trip occasionally and not during peak traffic time. Large, expensive, large lot sfr’s with terrible rent multipliers will not bring the investors out of the woodwork (there are knuckleheads everywhere, so there will always be some) but they won’t become a large competing force.

Unfortunately we don’t know the pre bubble rent multiplier of the last down cycle, so we can’t compare it but it sounds like you have a sweet deal and something very sustainable, no wonder you don’t want to buy, I wouldn’t either. My market caught fire once renting became more expensive than buying, that was my sign, but it had happened during the last downturn which ended up being the bottom so I waited for that as the indication, if you can figure out what the lowest rent multipler was in your area’s last downturn, then you can figure out about where the bottom will be. That was my methodology, not sure if it is a transferable theory. My market overshot it’s 1996 numbers, but in these volatile times, overshooting was expected, your market wasn’t as volatile to the upside so logic says it wont be as volatile to the downside. There is also an interest rate consideration when looking at historical figures, monthly payment trumps actual sales price, so it get complicated.

You may also want to track the historical multiplier for traditional rental housing, like small places or condos, there’s more data and the numbers are more pure, higher end rentals are not as good for statistical purposes.

650k at 5% is $3500 P&I, rent parity would be reached at 475k, so that is as good as it will get IMO, that’s when the historical info comes in, my guess is that it will swing that number up if rent parity wasn’t reached during the last cycle.

In summary, I feel terrible for you, it’s as if your parents have set your curfew at 9pm while all your friends have a midnight curfew, you can’t get new parents, you can’t change their minds and all your friends are out having fun. With the recent activity and lack of inventory, it’s like you just had a birthday, expected your curfew to be extended to a more tolerable, yet not ideal 10pm and they dropped it to 8pm.

[temeculaguy]

Thanks CAR, the reason I was asking was at some point you have to figure out the investor support level, they aren’t tied to certain area, they don’t factor the commute so much since they only make the trip occasionally and not during peak traffic time. Large, expensive, large lot sfr’s with terrible rent multipliers will not bring the investors out of the woodwork (there are knuckleheads everywhere, so there will always be some) but they won’t become a large competing force.

Unfortunately we don’t know the pre bubble rent multiplier of the last down cycle, so we can’t compare it but it sounds like you have a sweet deal and something very sustainable, no wonder you don’t want to buy, I wouldn’t either. My market caught fire once renting became more expensive than buying, that was my sign, but it had happened during the last downturn which ended up being the bottom so I waited for that as the indication, if you can figure out what the lowest rent multipler was in your area’s last downturn, then you can figure out about where the bottom will be. That was my methodology, not sure if it is a transferable theory. My market overshot it’s 1996 numbers, but in these volatile times, overshooting was expected, your market wasn’t as volatile to the upside so logic says it wont be as volatile to the downside. There is also an interest rate consideration when looking at historical figures, monthly payment trumps actual sales price, so it get complicated.

You may also want to track the historical multiplier for traditional rental housing, like small places or condos, there’s more data and the numbers are more pure, higher end rentals are not as good for statistical purposes.

650k at 5% is $3500 P&I, rent parity would be reached at 475k, so that is as good as it will get IMO, that’s when the historical info comes in, my guess is that it will swing that number up if rent parity wasn’t reached during the last cycle.

In summary, I feel terrible for you, it’s as if your parents have set your curfew at 9pm while all your friends have a midnight curfew, you can’t get new parents, you can’t change their minds and all your friends are out having fun. With the recent activity and lack of inventory, it’s like you just had a birthday, expected your curfew to be extended to a more tolerable, yet not ideal 10pm and they dropped it to 8pm.

[temeculaguy]

Thanks CAR, the reason I was asking was at some point you have to figure out the investor support level, they aren’t tied to certain area, they don’t factor the commute so much since they only make the trip occasionally and not during peak traffic time. Large, expensive, large lot sfr’s with terrible rent multipliers will not bring the investors out of the woodwork (there are knuckleheads everywhere, so there will always be some) but they won’t become a large competing force.

Unfortunately we don’t know the pre bubble rent multiplier of the last down cycle, so we can’t compare it but it sounds like you have a sweet deal and something very sustainable, no wonder you don’t want to buy, I wouldn’t either. My market caught fire once renting became more expensive than buying, that was my sign, but it had happened during the last downturn which ended up being the bottom so I waited for that as the indication, if you can figure out what the lowest rent multipler was in your area’s last downturn, then you can figure out about where the bottom will be. That was my methodology, not sure if it is a transferable theory. My market overshot it’s 1996 numbers, but in these volatile times, overshooting was expected, your market wasn’t as volatile to the upside so logic says it wont be as volatile to the downside. There is also an interest rate consideration when looking at historical figures, monthly payment trumps actual sales price, so it get complicated.

You may also want to track the historical multiplier for traditional rental housing, like small places or condos, there’s more data and the numbers are more pure, higher end rentals are not as good for statistical purposes.

650k at 5% is $3500 P&I, rent parity would be reached at 475k, so that is as good as it will get IMO, that’s when the historical info comes in, my guess is that it will swing that number up if rent parity wasn’t reached during the last cycle.

In summary, I feel terrible for you, it’s as if your parents have set your curfew at 9pm while all your friends have a midnight curfew, you can’t get new parents, you can’t change their minds and all your friends are out having fun. With the recent activity and lack of inventory, it’s like you just had a birthday, expected your curfew to be extended to a more tolerable, yet not ideal 10pm and they dropped it to 8pm.

[temeculaguy]

Okay, freeway iceplant, aka, redspike ice plant, is pretty ugly, sparse and doesn’t hold back slopes that well. But these last few posts forced me to research it, the stuff i was pimping isn’t red spike (highway ice plant), it doesn’t really look like iceplant, it is currenlty listed on the living desert website of palm springs as one of their plants in their outdoor botanical gargens so it does well in heat, uses little water and makes a good fire break. The problem with native plants is they burn like the dickens. I’m with you treehugger on the pampuas grass as being devil spawn but go easy on my pretty purple carpet. I found my purple carpet on xeriscape websites as a lawn replacement option, you can’t walk on it but you don’t have to mow it or water it much and it’s pretty. It also wasn’t on the bad plant list, it’s not the iceplant they list. I did like that list, it listed eucalyptus as evil, I wholeheartedly agree.

I’m afraid I’m not with you on the saltgrass, i took the link and looked at the pictures, it looks a lot like what I pay my kids to pick, my apologies for the senseless and ongoing murder, but at least i don’t spray them with roundup, well…not that I’ll admit to anyway. If you can outlaw pampas grass and blue gum eucalyptus, I’ll leave the salt grass alone, deal.

[temeculaguy]

Okay, freeway iceplant, aka, redspike ice plant, is pretty ugly, sparse and doesn’t hold back slopes that well. But these last few posts forced me to research it, the stuff i was pimping isn’t red spike (highway ice plant), it doesn’t really look like iceplant, it is currenlty listed on the living desert website of palm springs as one of their plants in their outdoor botanical gargens so it does well in heat, uses little water and makes a good fire break. The problem with native plants is they burn like the dickens. I’m with you treehugger on the pampuas grass as being devil spawn but go easy on my pretty purple carpet. I found my purple carpet on xeriscape websites as a lawn replacement option, you can’t walk on it but you don’t have to mow it or water it much and it’s pretty. It also wasn’t on the bad plant list, it’s not the iceplant they list. I did like that list, it listed eucalyptus as evil, I wholeheartedly agree.

I’m afraid I’m not with you on the saltgrass, i took the link and looked at the pictures, it looks a lot like what I pay my kids to pick, my apologies for the senseless and ongoing murder, but at least i don’t spray them with roundup, well…not that I’ll admit to anyway. If you can outlaw pampas grass and blue gum eucalyptus, I’ll leave the salt grass alone, deal.

[temeculaguy]

Okay, freeway iceplant, aka, redspike ice plant, is pretty ugly, sparse and doesn’t hold back slopes that well. But these last few posts forced me to research it, the stuff i was pimping isn’t red spike (highway ice plant), it doesn’t really look like iceplant, it is currenlty listed on the living desert website of palm springs as one of their plants in their outdoor botanical gargens so it does well in heat, uses little water and makes a good fire break. The problem with native plants is they burn like the dickens. I’m with you treehugger on the pampuas grass as being devil spawn but go easy on my pretty purple carpet. I found my purple carpet on xeriscape websites as a lawn replacement option, you can’t walk on it but you don’t have to mow it or water it much and it’s pretty. It also wasn’t on the bad plant list, it’s not the iceplant they list. I did like that list, it listed eucalyptus as evil, I wholeheartedly agree.

I’m afraid I’m not with you on the saltgrass, i took the link and looked at the pictures, it looks a lot like what I pay my kids to pick, my apologies for the senseless and ongoing murder, but at least i don’t spray them with roundup, well…not that I’ll admit to anyway. If you can outlaw pampas grass and blue gum eucalyptus, I’ll leave the salt grass alone, deal.

[temeculaguy]

Okay, freeway iceplant, aka, redspike ice plant, is pretty ugly, sparse and doesn’t hold back slopes that well. But these last few posts forced me to research it, the stuff i was pimping isn’t red spike (highway ice plant), it doesn’t really look like iceplant, it is currenlty listed on the living desert website of palm springs as one of their plants in their outdoor botanical gargens so it does well in heat, uses little water and makes a good fire break. The problem with native plants is they burn like the dickens. I’m with you treehugger on the pampuas grass as being devil spawn but go easy on my pretty purple carpet. I found my purple carpet on xeriscape websites as a lawn replacement option, you can’t walk on it but you don’t have to mow it or water it much and it’s pretty. It also wasn’t on the bad plant list, it’s not the iceplant they list. I did like that list, it listed eucalyptus as evil, I wholeheartedly agree.

I’m afraid I’m not with you on the saltgrass, i took the link and looked at the pictures, it looks a lot like what I pay my kids to pick, my apologies for the senseless and ongoing murder, but at least i don’t spray them with roundup, well…not that I’ll admit to anyway. If you can outlaw pampas grass and blue gum eucalyptus, I’ll leave the salt grass alone, deal.

[temeculaguy]

Okay, freeway iceplant, aka, redspike ice plant, is pretty ugly, sparse and doesn’t hold back slopes that well. But these last few posts forced me to research it, the stuff i was pimping isn’t red spike (highway ice plant), it doesn’t really look like iceplant, it is currenlty listed on the living desert website of palm springs as one of their plants in their outdoor botanical gargens so it does well in heat, uses little water and makes a good fire break. The problem with native plants is they burn like the dickens. I’m with you treehugger on the pampuas grass as being devil spawn but go easy on my pretty purple carpet. I found my purple carpet on xeriscape websites as a lawn replacement option, you can’t walk on it but you don’t have to mow it or water it much and it’s pretty. It also wasn’t on the bad plant list, it’s not the iceplant they list. I did like that list, it listed eucalyptus as evil, I wholeheartedly agree.

I’m afraid I’m not with you on the saltgrass, i took the link and looked at the pictures, it looks a lot like what I pay my kids to pick, my apologies for the senseless and ongoing murder, but at least i don’t spray them with roundup, well…not that I’ll admit to anyway. If you can outlaw pampas grass and blue gum eucalyptus, I’ll leave the salt grass alone, deal.

[temeculaguy]

sdr, what would a house like that sell for? I’m guessing it would be over 500k? I get into so many discussions with CAR and a few others that it would help me in future advice/opinions to get a handle on the rent/price ratio, it also helps to understand why they are freaking mad. It would be nice to find a couple of examples that have been rentals for a long time and see what the rent to purchase ratio has been for the last 10-15 years. Has it always been over 200x? If it’s always been that way, that is one thing, but if the rent multiplier has only been recently out of whack, it might be a telling stat.

[temeculaguy]

sdr, what would a house like that sell for? I’m guessing it would be over 500k? I get into so many discussions with CAR and a few others that it would help me in future advice/opinions to get a handle on the rent/price ratio, it also helps to understand why they are freaking mad. It would be nice to find a couple of examples that have been rentals for a long time and see what the rent to purchase ratio has been for the last 10-15 years. Has it always been over 200x? If it’s always been that way, that is one thing, but if the rent multiplier has only been recently out of whack, it might be a telling stat.

[temeculaguy]

sdr, what would a house like that sell for? I’m guessing it would be over 500k? I get into so many discussions with CAR and a few others that it would help me in future advice/opinions to get a handle on the rent/price ratio, it also helps to understand why they are freaking mad. It would be nice to find a couple of examples that have been rentals for a long time and see what the rent to purchase ratio has been for the last 10-15 years. Has it always been over 200x? If it’s always been that way, that is one thing, but if the rent multiplier has only been recently out of whack, it might be a telling stat.

[temeculaguy]

sdr, what would a house like that sell for? I’m guessing it would be over 500k? I get into so many discussions with CAR and a few others that it would help me in future advice/opinions to get a handle on the rent/price ratio, it also helps to understand why they are freaking mad. It would be nice to find a couple of examples that have been rentals for a long time and see what the rent to purchase ratio has been for the last 10-15 years. Has it always been over 200x? If it’s always been that way, that is one thing, but if the rent multiplier has only been recently out of whack, it might be a telling stat.

[temeculaguy]

sdr, what would a house like that sell for? I’m guessing it would be over 500k? I get into so many discussions with CAR and a few others that it would help me in future advice/opinions to get a handle on the rent/price ratio, it also helps to understand why they are freaking mad. It would be nice to find a couple of examples that have been rentals for a long time and see what the rent to purchase ratio has been for the last 10-15 years. Has it always been over 200x? If it’s always been that way, that is one thing, but if the rent multiplier has only been recently out of whack, it might be a telling stat.

[temeculaguy]

[quote=jimmyle]yes, i sold my stocks in 2008 after owning them for more than one year and lost $12K. Then I bought some stocks in June and just sold them for a $10K profit hence short term gain.[/quote]

Well jimmy, fsd has the answer, even before you clarified, he’s a smartie. Now that you know the trick, use the strategy and avoid selling into a loss greater than 3k unless you have a winner to offset it. There was no way to know you were going to hit a 10k winner so in hindsight, you should have spread that 12k loser over 4 years unless you had a gain and after a gain, then lose the matching amount. You got lucky this time, next time, you wont need as much luck, you can make your own. Who say’s math isn’t fun.

[Author]

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