[sdrebear]

It was mister happy himself, David Lereah from the NAR on that segment. Of course he was trying to put the “normal market” spin on it, but I did notice that he had very little spirit left in his voice. It was almose as though he could barely stand his own bulls!it anymore. To be challenged with such damaging evidence on a national stage seemed to rattle him a bit like finally someone was going to see that he was totally full of it.

It was fun!

[sdrebear]

SD Realtor…

 

Yes, this is the same Lee Sterling from Carlsbad Help-U-Sell.

[sdrebear]

An interesting thread. I’ve often wondered how many other people were annoyed by this. My mother gets literally furious when they try to take her plate. I think for her, it’s that she feels rushed to leave. I never really gave it a second thought.

For me personally, what I’ve never understood is when they want to come around and fill up your half full iced tea. I mean, many people put sugar (or substitute of choice) and/or lemon into their tea. You work so hard to get it just right and BAM! they dump a bunch of new tea and ice in there to ruin it. Usually, they don’t even ask, they just pop in and pour. Then you’re back to putting more sugar in as it’s too bitter again.

[sdrebear]

“bgates” quote – “I won’t embarass you by asking for evidence that anyone in the administration claimed any citizen was either for the war or a terrorist – wait, yes I will, put up or shut up”

Well, you didn’t ask me to “put up or shut up” (very Bush-like of you by the way) but here it is anyway.

You are either with us or against us

Admittedly, Bush wasn’t speaking directly to a “citizen” as you requested, but he did say the words and directed it to every government in the world (more or less). These governments, being the embodiment of it’s country’s citizens, is as close as I need for your silly “challenge”.

As a citizen, if you didn’t get the message loud and clear from statements like this, you were totally brain dead. This type of “cowboy” rhetoric resounded all over our country and was part of quite an impressive mental game to squash resistance to war both domestically and abroad.

[sdrebear]

Personally, I feel that debating on “if” Iraq was or was not a good idea in 2003 is completely NOT the point.

What IS the point here is HOW we got there and how we as Americans were manipulated into supporting the action.

For eight months Bush “could” have done something about Iraq (had he REALLY cared so much). Pretty much every argument used to support the war in this thread was present from the day he stepped into office. Yet it seems he knew there was no real support for such an effort. Heck, he didn’t even USE any of the arguments offered in this thread. He needed something more.

Oops, then 9/11 happened. Bush woke up from his vacation and whipped the nation into a war on “terror” (can’t get much more vague than that) with Osama bin Laden as the “number one priority”.

So we started in that direction with great purpose and determination. Somewhere along the way we became distracted. Very quickly and deliberately, attention was shifted elsewhere (Iraq) with express connections to al Qaeda reported by the White House as a principal reason.

To refresh our memory, here is a clip referencing the 9/11 commission who made a deep investigation on the matter:

In January, Cheney repeated his view that Iraq was tied to al Qaeda, saying that “there’s overwhelming evidence” of an Iraq-al Qaeda connection. He said he was “very confident there was an established relationship there.”

The commission staff, in yesterday’s report, said that while bin Laden was in Sudan between 1991 and 1996, a senior Iraqi intelligence officer made three visits to Sudan, and that he had a meeting with bin Laden in 1994. Bin Laden was reported to have sought training camps and assistance in getting weapons, “but Iraq never responded,” the staff said. The report said that bin Laden “at one time sponsored anti-Saddam Islamists in Iraqi Kurdistan.”

Here is the full story

At BEST they were incompetent. At worst they were lying to us in order to push their war agenda through with the wave of blind patriotic support behind them. (Apparently, some have still not taken off the blinders)

So, what ever happened to good ole’ bin Laden? Well, according to Bush, he’s just not a priority these days. So, the very person they explicitly named as the mastermind of 9/11 (and have NEVER backed off that statement) which killed well over 2,000 innocent Americans (and many other nationality’s) is no longer a “priority”. Hey, we were then building up for war in Iraq when he said this, so I can understand he had other things on his mind, but just how insulting were these statements to the loved ones of those killed in 9/11. How much of an idiot do you have to be to actually let these words out of your mouth, not once, but twice! This man (bin Laden) was (as identified by Bush himself) “likely” behind the worst attack on American soil probably since the Revolutionary War and in less than a year later HE ISN’T EVEN A PRIORITY?!!!! (please excuse the shouting, it just gets so ridiculous, that I can’t believe people still make excuses for him)

In case anyone forgot what Bush said or when:

“The most important thing is for us to find Osama bin Laden. It is our number one priority and we will not rest until we find him.”
– G.W. Bush, 9/13/01

“I want justice…There’s an old poster out West, as I recall, that said, ‘Wanted: Dead or Alive,'”
– G.W. Bush, 9/17/01, UPI

“…Secondly, he is not escaping us. This is a guy, who, three months ago, was in control of a county [sic]. Now he’s maybe in control of a cave. He’s on the run. Listen, a while ago I said to the American people, our objective is more than bin Laden. But one of the things for certain is we’re going to get him running and keep him running, and bring him to justice. And that’s what’s happening. He’s on the run, if he’s running at all. So we don’t know whether he’s in cave with the door shut, or a cave with the door open — we just don’t know….”
– Bush, in remarks in a Press Availability with the Press Travel Pool,
The Prairie Chapel Ranch, Crawford TX, 12/28/01, as reported on
official White House site

“I don’t know where bin Laden is. I have no idea and really don’t care. It’s not that important. It’s not our priority.”
– G.W. Bush, 3/13/02

“I am truly not that concerned about him.”
– G.W. Bush, responding to a question about bin Laden’s whereabouts,
3/13/02

So I hear people say that the war on terror is being won (by Bush) because there haven’t been any terror attacks by al Qaeda since 2001. Umm, please forgive me for being jaded, but “so what?”. Before 2001, the last (major) attack was in 1993. That was 8 years. It’s only been 5 since 9/11. Are Neo-cons ready to say Clinton was “great” against terror during that span in the 90’s? I highly doubt it.

As long as we keep thinking of the “terrorists” as some country in the middle east that we can swoop in and squash with our military, we will NEVER win this “war”. It’s a joke. Your neighbor right now could be a terrorist and you’d never know it. These people don’t have a country or an army to beat with our military. They are an idea and a purpose (neither a good one mind you) and we’ve done nothing but fuel them both.

So, should we stop fighting terrorist? No, of course not. We just need a better strategy. No “bgates” I don’t have an exact detailed strategy for you to review. I actually agree with much of what’s being done currently, such as following their money (and blocking it) as well as infiltrating their ranks and blocking them when plans begin to come together (such as what happened in England). Those things actually seem to help. Dropping bombs on and around their “home” countries only seems to increase their recruitment efforts, so I don’t see that as a great addition to the real “war” on terror.

More than that, we should absolutely NEVER allow our leaders use our own fear of terror against us in order to push their personal agendas while stripping us of our personal liberties (whom MANY of our ancestors lost their lives to give to us) so they can further implant themselves in our personal lives and unfairly control America’s political system. When those things happen (you and I losing personal freedoms) then the objectives of the terrorists are being handed to them.

Supporting our troops and being a patriot has absolutely NOTHING to do with blindly following the leaders of the country. It has much more to do with questioning everything and demanding accountability for how they spend our money and much more-so, exactly why they are putting our best and brightest in harm’s way.

Is everything “wrong” with what we’re doing in Iraq? No, I don’t think so. It’s not about if things in Iraq were bad (they were) and “worthy” of our intervention (they are), it’s the way we were “sold” this war that I have issue with. If you had a list of the reasons we first went to war, I’d bet you’d find very few today that matched with why we are STILL at war there.

Poorly planned, poorly executed, and we were all duped into swallowing the whole thing.

Hey, look on the bright side, at least Halliburton made a little money on the deal!

[sdrebear]

Just a thought, and I could be completely missing something, but before the past two years, these Option-ARM’s had an excellent performance history. Primarily, because they were only used by financially secure “investor types” who were only using them to increase the leverage of their cash. These types of people NEVER went into default as they did have the money to cover the loan and resets never truly affected them.

So, the track record on these loans don’t look scary at all. These loans have NEVER been tested on the general public like they have lately. I’m quite sure those ratings will change when the new numbers start to filter in.

[sdrebear]

Did it even air?

My DVR was messed up and I only caught literally the last 10 seconds where she was thanking her guests. She mentioned two names, but neither one was Rich’s.

She also said that next week they’d be taking “another look at real estate”, but didn’t say who would be on the show.

[sdrebear]

For a listing agent with impeccable integrity, a track record of strong sales and a specialist in the $800k and under market, I’d go with George Lorimer. He’s located in Downtown, but regularly takes listings outside of that area and I’ve seen him sell homes in Mira Mesa.

Please shop around and wait for that “good feeling” about the agent you choose. I’m sure George would be in the running. He’s absolutely a realist about today’s market and will not BS you about the price he thinks he can sell your home for. If you don’t agree with his estimate, then he probably won’t even take your listing. He doesn’t want to waste your time or his money on unrealistic expectations.

Check him out during your search and compare him closely with others who claim to be good listing agents. He definitely has the track record to back up my recommendation.

Check here to see his listing program
Check here to see all of his sold listings (it’s quite a list)
Check here for all of his current listings

(For those of you wondering) No, I’m not George, but he is a close friend whom I’ve never mentioned on this board before as I don’t want him hassled in any way. He’s definitely one of the good ones and works incredibly hard. Despite my overall feelings about our horrendous market, I still have tremendous respect for the job many Realtors do. George was around well before this latest boom and knows very well how to move property in any kind of market.

[sdrebear]

I can’t get too specific about the “who” as all our clients have NDA’s for their results, but I guess I can come up with some general results by category.

Keep in mind these results are for individual companies over time with the same marketing mix in place.
Over the past 6 months lead volume has dropped as follows:

* Flooring is down 70%
* Kitchen Remodeling is down 55%
* Window Treatment is down 23%
* Driveway Paving is down 10%

I wasn’t sure about the summer months either, but actually thought they’d increase some as (nationally) more remodel jobs are completed in the warmer months. However, I don’t have hard evidence for this and I wasn’t on these accounts last summer, so I don’t have direct comparison data to compare to.

There are certainly other factors that contribute to these particular results, but as a whole, things are slowing considerably for our clients.

[sdrebear]

Be real careful to watch the number of days these rentals are on the market. I started renting in March and have recently helped a friend rent and quickly noticed some of the exact same rentals from when I was searching with lowered pricing on some. That’s a long time on the market for a rental. There are many people who absolutely can not afford to have their home unrented for more than a couple of months.

I believe many people are new to the rental market for their property (more out of necessity rather than desire) and are either unclear of what reasonable rents are, or simply can’t afford to lower their rent due to such a large servicing cost for their property. They can ask for the rental price all day long, but rents are much more closely tied to salaries than mortgages and as was mentioned previously, there is absolutely no financial incentive to getting into a larger rent payment than you are comfortable with (unless you use your home for very important business meetings, but good luck finding THAT renter!)

I don’t really believe that the rental market can be pushed up anywhere close to covering the mortgage costs of recent sales. There are currently forces on both sides of rents and even if the side pushing up wins, the rate of increase will always be measured.

[sdrebear]

It’s unfortunate that people such as this think it’s a good time to buy and believe they “can’t go wrong”. Maybe they will be fine, but I think I’d put a little more thought into it.

This particular person is 27 with what sounds like a good career. He’s moving into a downtown condo with is girlfriend. I don’t know if it’s a 1 or 2 bedroom place, but it’s very likely that his life could change very drastically in the near future. Marriage, children, and many other things all seem to happen right around this time for most people. Is downtown the best place for that? Maybe, but your perception changes very quickly when you have to lug a bunch of baby stuff to the top of a condo complex.

Point being that he seems to think being young gives him time to wait out anything that happens. It’s probably the opposite as his life is more likely to change in the next few years than someone who’s 45.

He also said the following: “At that time the news was forecasting condos in downtown and everywhere were suffering,” Cabuago said. “I thought that was a perfect time to buy.” I’m a little confused as to his thinking. They weren’t saying that the condos were at the bottom now. They were “forecasting” that in the near future these condos could tank. The “suffering” had JUST started. How does that make buying NOW a good choice? He knocked $40k off the asking price, which is very good, but that should have been a sign to him so shortly after such a large boom market. Seemed a little too easy, right?

I’m also very curious what kind of loan this person took out. If you’re in a position to buy and hold long on a fixed rate loan, by all means buy that house and live in it. I’m just very scared for the people who really want to, or have to get out of a place in the next 1-7 years.

[sdrebear]

RightSide,

There are actually so many factors that are personal to you in making that decision, that I hesitate to recomend any one place over another. If you really love off-road racing, rodeos, etc. then Santee/Lakeside is your thing. Where you work can have a huge impact on where you want to “sanely” live here. I personally love some of the small homes in Hillcrest north of Adams Ave, but from where my wife and I live, it would just be horrible traffic every day (both ways), so its charm could never overcome that reality. Plus, there are better schools around that I’d like our son to attend, so for me and my family (despite loving the unique homes and interesting area) it just doesn’t work.

There are many other examples of issues you need to consider, but I’d honestly suggest making a list of all the major needs/desires you have for your family and put together a small scoring system for each; weighing the most important factors the most and then getting as many of the other things in as possible. San Diego has so many awesome communities to choose from, that there is no way I could personally recommend just one (or three!). Carlsbad/Encinitas are excellent choices for many reasons, but if you work downtown, it will be quite a difficult commute every day and could be a major factor against those areas.

Anyway, if you really want good advice on San Diego areas, feel free to provide more information about your situation and likes/dislikes and you will no doubt get many great ideas from people on this board that are directly relevant to your needs.

Good Luck!

[sdrebear]

Funny…

They say they don’t want to try to “predict” home prices, saying “if you’re a flipper, we’re not talking to you!”

Instead, they are trying to predict rent prices. Ummm… what’s the difference really?

They may have forgotten that this is pretty much a zero sum game too. If we have record home owners in this country, then where are all the renters going to come from to justify the rent they think they are going to get on a specific home? What happens to their model if rent prices sink (relatively speaking)?

There are many more points, but who has time to waste on flawed logic.

[sdrebear]

It’s too bad that Blanche Evans seems to be drinking some of the same kool-aid that the other Realtors are. She’s actually a very respected journalist in the Real Estate field and is usually more objective than this. It seems she is bowing to her constituents now however.

I wonder if she saw the news where economist have just raised the chance of a 1/4 point interest increase and another 1/4 point increase after that to (about) 84% after a recent Fed meeting? I don’t see the inflation free expansion she’s talking about. I don’t think anyone (other than the guy in OC) is really recognizing the impact of zero savings at a time when all these Baby Boomers should be maximizing their savings due to the cash-out equity effect. Once that ends (which will be very shortly), this “expansion” will be thrown in reverse before anyone even knows what’s going on.

Will there be a complete real estate “bust” this spring. I kind of doubt it, but ask me about spring 2007 and I’d have a much darker prediction.

[sdrebear]

Almost forgot to touch on the one stat that NAR considered more important than any other; The Mortgage Servicing Cost to Income Ratio.

They said it was a little high, but not as high as in the early 1980’s (like it was a GOOD thing!) Unless they were only referring to the one spike in 1981 when the Prime Rate was pegged at 20%+, then we are now in fact well above any other point on their nice little graph. We are well above even though we have historically low interest rates and loan points! Ah, but home prices are not too high. If rates and points (the other small factors in calculating the mortgage servicing cost) return to more “normal” levels, then I’m sure those home prices will hold firm, right? Not.

[Author]

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