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sdrealtor
Participant[quote=sdrealtor]New listings 19 (23) – highest count all year but still havent hit 20 yet. This time last year we had hit 30.
New Pendings of 25 (36) –
Thats -6
Closed sales at 18 –
Total houses for sale 29 (49) with median of $2.3M ($1.709M). Cheapest SFR is $1.285M and its actually a detached condo not a true SFR. Inventory still off about 40% as my hovel inches every closer
Every once in a while I see something that makes me stand up and take notice. This week a friend listed a beautiful property in Leucadia for $7M and it sold the first day. That means someone was waiting out there with $7M or more burning a hole in their pocket looking to buy their dream home. We never had buyers like that before. The world continues changing here faster and faster![/quote]
A little update on this last one. Apparently there was not a buyer waiting out there with $7M or more burning a hole in their pocket looking to buy their dream home. There were several! There was a bidding war and its in escrow way over asking price and listing agent is still getting calls about it.
Of note all the buyers/potential buyers were local to SD and winner is from Encinitas. Among the bidders were a LJ local that is downsizing from a much more expensive home they recently sold and a retired pro athlete. The laters agent shared that they have a whole bunch of retired/soon to be retired athletes looking to retire here also. This of course makes perfect sense as we have a beautiful place with great climate, great schools and they can can live in relative anonymity here with their families relative to staying where they played their careers. Most of these guys retire with $5 to 50M after relatively short careers. They will never make close to that money again and need to make it last nicely for the rest of their lives. This place is a great landing spot.
Im not saying there will be enough of guys/gals like this to carry the whole market but it is one more example of a growing category of resident that exists few places and will continue to support what is happening here.
ParticipantWritten by a public sector lawyer so confirmation bias at play. There are always exceptions. All the big time private sector lawyers I know dress the part. It’s part of the deal
ParticipantFunny one of my best friend’s had a crazy old house that was formerly a town hall building or similar in Vermont. His youngest finished high school last year and he could finally get out of there and retire to Boca. It closed last week. The pictures aren’t much different minus the jail
ParticipantPublic sector lawyer vs Private Sector lawyer
ParticipantDoes that mean they are in the money;)
Participant[quote=svelte][quote=scaredyclassic]I feel the biggest gains come from just not spending money and investing that. How much have I saved over 20 years by not having a cleaning person. It’s staggering! 100k? No dry cleaning shirts ever, iron myself, hmm, 30k? Eating just cabbage and oats for a month? Cheapest vodka? I think one can get almost rich just being ridiculously frugal.
[/quote]How old will you and your wife be in 20 years? Will it really matter if you had saved that cleaning lady money? I have a feeling you’ve socked away quite a nest egg as it is.
[quote=scaredyclassic]
I did just break down and hire a cleaning person recently because my poor wife can’t take it anymore. Man, the place looks clean…but is it better to have money in the account or dust on the shelves?[/quote]We must be going on 20 years of having a house cleaner come in twice a month. 2 women x 2.5 hours x 2 times = 10 hours/month. We also have a gardener – 2 hours x 4 times = 8 hours/month. We feel it is well worth it.
Our free time is very valuable.
My goal is not to die with as big a pile of money as I can gather. it is to have enough to live comfortably the rest of my life and still leave a little something to the kids, not make them wealthy.[/quote]
I have never cleaned a bathroom or kitchen. I value having it done for me highly. My housekeeper has been with me for 21 years now and is like family. I paid her during covid and told her to stay home. I pay her when she is sick and cant come. I pay her an extra month each December as a bonus. When she can no longer come I have money set aside as a retirement gift. My goal is to leave a big pile of money and paid off real estate for my family but I can afford some conveniences and value those who provide them to me greatly.
ParticipantHeading up to LA for a concert so early update. Id expect a few more to go pending in the next few hours.
New listings 17 (34) – still havent hit 20 yet
New Pendings of 25 (41) –
Thats -8
Closed sales at 21 –
Total houses for sale 27 (57) with median of $2.3M ($1.9M)
Here’s todays observation which relates to a conversation I had with a friend a few weeks ago and wrote about here. I asked a dear friend/client that retired here from Silly Valley a few years ago what a market looks like when prices get so high that incomes just cant support them like what happens up in the Bay Area and people buy with stock option money. His answer was the cost of everything goes up (Hello $70 haircuts) and people make do with smaller, more densely packed spaces (Condo is the life for me).
For that to happen we would need to have what I would consider a large scale SFR capitulation meaning folks who would typically buy an SFR would begin to shift en masse to attached homes and condos. My thought was thats gonna take some time thinking NCC buyers would head east to San Marcos and North toward Oside and Vista rather than spending close to or more than $1M for an attached home.
While I dont post it here weekly, I also track attached homes in 92009/92011 because I have a close family member whose interests are very dear to me.
This is what I saw this week when running the numbers. New listings were about double what they have been running. My first thought was uh-oh homeowners are starting to take the money and run and will soon blow past demand. Then I ran the pendings and they are more than triple what they have been running! While new listings are 30% above the prior high total this year, the pendings are double the prior high! These numbers scream large scale SFR Capitulation but its still early.
On top of that I saw this.
https://www.redfin.com/CA/Carlsbad/3026-Rancho-Del-Canon-92009/home/3855232
A twin home just closed for about $350K above asking. I dont think that was someone that came looking for a twin home but rather an SFR buyer that capitulated. And for it to get that high there has to be more than 2 or 3 capitulators. Its still early to call it a trend but this bears watching and following. The numbers to watch will be # of new attached listings to see if people are taking the money to run vis a vis # of attached pendings to see if SFR buyers are capitulating. I’ll keep y’all posted
ParticipantHeading up to LA for a concert so early update. If anything there may be another pending or 2 by my normal data collection time each Tuesday as at least 4 of 5 have multiple offers on them they are negotiaitng on
New listings 2 (7) – market watchers this is # to follow.
New Pendings of 2 (8) –
Closed sales at 4 (4) –
Inventory at 5 but at least 4 if not all 5 working through offers. It was 7 this time last year. The median list price is now $999K and was $829K this week last year.
Only 2 sfr listings this week is anemic. Thats a dead of Winter not a Spring peak selling season number. Anyone watching the market here needs to follow new listing numbers. Interest rates mean little in such a supply constrained market as there are plenty of high down buyers not overly impacted by rates.
Most houses seem to be closing between $50 and 100K over with the exception of the best of the best locations which can go much more.
ParticipantI believe it has to do with Fannie and Freddie Mac guidelines that keep them a little higher. Lenders doing portfolio (loans held in a portfolio and not sold off to a government intermediary ) jumbo loans are a little lower.
ParticipantHey, Im top 20 also LOL!
Except all I got was a lousy Accounting and Economics degree.ParticipantJust ran into my favorite lender over coffee. Here is latest, at least while we were having coffee as things are moving around quickly (up and down through out the day). Just some data points here as they are likely different by the time you read this.
Conventional 30 yr 4.5%
Jumbo 30 yr (portfolio loan) 4.125%
10/1 arm 3.625%ParticipantNot the end all be all but a strong local showing nonetheless
ParticipantIs it fair to say they have entered the bean counter zone?
Participant[quote=deadzone][quote=sdrealtor]Sour grapes plain and simple. You remind me of the old time locals who have been renting around here for decades whining and complaining. You’ve had numerous opportunities to step up and grab a piece of paradise but you have failed. You have no one to blame but yourself. Stop blaming others for your own poor choices. Get better[/quote]
I’m already living the dream, been for decades.
You are the one with sour grapes. You literally lack the intelligence to understand that the housing market (and entire economy) for the last 12 years is a house of cards created artificially by Fed involvement.. When I point out that this is appearing to come to an end, you get real defensive and always come back to attacking me. I’m just the messenger. I get that you don’t like me, I don’t like you either, you are an arrogant prick. But no reason to make it personal. You are using your dislike of me as a convenient scapegoat to ignore the situation at hand.
Using “opportunity of a lifetime” as a canned response to everything I say about the markets just makes you look lazy, un-informed and basically a Dick.[/quote]
Actually my grapes are perfectly ripe and well fermented. Had an amazing 100 point wine last night watching the sunset into the ocean with friends. You always fall back on the ad hominem attack. I lack for nothing materially or intelligence wise. You’ve been wrong over and over hoping someday Mr Market will rescue you. Well it’s time to buckle up butter cup , put on the big boy pants and take personal responsibility. If you’ve been here for decades you have zero excuses. There have been countless opportunities and you’ve failed.
Stupid me? In those last 25 years I’ve bought and sold seven different properties making a killing on every single one of them. How bout you? Show your cards. How much real estate have you ever bought or sold here?
Ok time to come back with another ad hominem attack
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