Are stocks attractive now?

[bibsoconner]

Anybody want to dust off their crystal ball and tell me if now is a good time to buy some stocks for the long term? As I write this, the major indices are off 2% for the day. VGK (a European index fund) is off ~3% and near 52 week low. The major US indices are somewhat near 52 week lows.

I have no specific stock in mind, just indices like VGK, VTI, VGT.

Again, I’m asking if prices and fundamentals are attractive for a long term investment. If everything is down primarily because of Ukraine, I’m tempted to invest. My own (possibly optimistic view) is that this resolves one way or the other. Or the world will be obliterated in which case it doesn’t really matter if I buy now or not.

Thoughts?

[XBoxBoy]

First thought: You are trying to time the market, always a dangerous strategy.

Second thought: If I had cash that I was looking to invest for the long haul, I would probably buy some etf that is a broad market investment. (Like SCHB) So, yeah I guess that means I think it’s as good a time as any to buy into the market. (Of course I’ve been wrong about that timing thing more than once in my life so take that advice as being worth what you paid for it.)

[Coronita]

I just did my monthly index investments today…

[carlsbadworker]

You answered your own question. It seems to be the best time to buy comparing to anytime in the last 52 weeks. No one knows whether it is still good in the next 52 weeks.

But long-term investment is always about buy low and sell high. The valuation is not the best. Shiller PE10 Ratio is 34.46 as we speak, but it is better than any time since Jan 2021.

[scaredyclassic]

it is a good time to set up a robot investment account and start putting in a comfortable weekly transfer. Wealthfront, betterment, vanguard, etc.

[The-Shoveler]

Not crazy about valuations yet IMO.
But then again Fed and congress are the real wild cards here, they may come riding to the rescue in spite of inflation.

[bibsoconner]

Thanks for the responses everyone.
For better or for worse, I didn’t get a a chance to invest today. The powers that be actually expected me to work today on various computer programming emergencies. The nerve of some bosses! :).

A couple more points….
Where is info on Shiller PE10 Ratio? I was actually trying to determine if the P/E ratio was decent.
Another reason I was looking was I noticed the NAV value of some of these funds (example VGK) seemed to be quite a bit higher than the asking price. I’m getting this from finance.yahoo.com which may or may not be the best source.

[Anonymous]

Clearly you are too young to have been invested during the .com crash. Try bringing up a chart of nasdaq from 1999-2001 timeframe. From a speculative bubble and over-valuation stand-point, the current stock market is very similar to that time period. So be careful.

[scaredyclassic]

[quote=bibsoconner]Thanks for the responses everyone.
For better or for worse, I didn’t get a a chance to invest today. The powers that be actually expected me to work today on various computer programming emergencies. The nerve of some bosses! :).

A couple more points….
Where is info on Shiller PE10 Ratio? I was actually trying to determine if the P/E ratio was decent.
Another reason I was looking was I noticed the NAV value of some of these funds (example VGK) seemed to be quite a bit higher than the asking price. I’m getting this from finance.yahoo.com which may or may not be the best source.[/quote]

do not try to guess when to buy. Just set up an automatic account. If you feel timid, make the first transfer $50. Increase the transfer as things crash. But keep buying. they don’t ring a bell at the bottom.

[Coronita]

We don’t know what will happen . But instead of taking the guesswork. I’d recommend just doing a regular $300-500/month drop investment into a simple domestic index fund , simply international index fund, and maybe a bond index fund. And later if you feel more comfortable bump that up to $1000/month or more.

In the long run, 15-20 years, you won’t care. The only thing you will care is if you never started.

my kids Vanguard 529k I started when she was born, just dripped 300-500, month and then it was $1000 month into indexes..And the same thing with a UMTA custodian account with indexes. Combined , both sits at $320k and it was effortless. Deposit and forget, up and down… who cares…

Disclaimer, Since we have 3 years to go, I’ve been reallocating things to a more short term cash focused allocation starting last year… only because we will need to start using it soon and it would be better to reduce some risk….otherwise I would have left it indexes longer.

In case you’re wondering the reason for doing a 529 and a umta custodial account was because the 529 can grow tax-free but is limited to college and private school use only whereas the umta is a custodian account that has no tax advantage but the money belongs to your kid and can be used for any purpose so the split for us was two to one

[Anonymous]

But seriously there are many signs that the stock market may be on the verge of a major crash. So if you insist on buying equities today, recommend you stick with high value (low PE) stock funds at least, not tech heavy or high PE stuff.

[Coronita]

[quote=deadzone]But seriously there are many signs that the stock market may be on the verge of a major crash. So if you insist on buying equities today, recommend you stick with high value (low PE) stock funds at least, not tech heavy or high PE stuff.[/quote]
The problem though is that if one is to fixated on trying to call the exact bottom before making any financial decision one often misses an opportunity of a lifetime just like in real estate at least for stocks you can always put a little in regularly so that you will never miss out the bottom unlike real estate in which for most people it’s impossible

[Anonymous]

Opportunity of a Lifetime? Really?
Buying qualcomm stock in 1995 opportunity of a lifetime.
Bitcoin anytime before 2018 opportunity of a lifetime.
I missed those too. Oh woes me.

[Coronita]

[quote=deadzone]Opportunity of a Lifetime? Really?
Buying qualcomm stock in 1995 opportunity of a lifetime.
Bitcoin anytime before 2018 opportunity of a lifetime.
I missed those too. Oh woes me.[/quote]

In san diego, yes qualcomm was a pretty big miss. But that wasn’t my point. My point is that people that try to look for the absolutely bottom will end up missing the bottom. Those people would probably be better off if they just adopted a auto-pilot auto-invest option over 15-20 years….Looking back 20 years if one didn’t do that, it’s very likely they missed the boat. And chances are, it’s not just one type of opportunity, it’s pretty much any opportunity…

It reminds me of this commercial. Not that I believe in crypto. But, the Don’t Be Like Larry is so true in many cases…

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BH5-rSxilxo

[scaredyclassic]

Nobody really wants to invest at the real bottom because the bottom feels like everythings going to fall another 50 percent, like it’ll never stop crashing..

[Author]

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