Are stocks attractive now?

[Anonymous]

[quote=Coronita][quote=deadzone]Opportunity of a Lifetime? Really?
Buying qualcomm stock in 1995 opportunity of a lifetime.
Bitcoin anytime before 2018 opportunity of a lifetime.
I missed those too. Oh woes me.[/quote]

In san diego, yes qualcomm was a pretty big miss. But that wasn’t my point. My point is that people that try to look for the absolutely bottom will end up missing the bottom. Those people would probably be better off if they just adopted a auto-pilot auto-invest option over 15-20 years….Looking back 20 years if one didn’t do that, it’s very likely they missed the boat. And chances are, it’s not just one type of opportunity, it’s pretty much any opportunity…

It reminds me of this commercial. Not that I believe in crypto. But, the Don’t Be Like Larry is so true in many cases…

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BH5-rSxilxo%5B/quote%5D

Well there are a lot of opportunities to make money on the downside too. I don’t have the risk appetite anymore to put serious money on the short side. But in the last crash I killed it shorting Subprime lenders. Especially New Century and Accredited Lending, both went bankrupt and I gained over 1000% on my deep out of the money puts. One could say that shorting subprime was the “opportunity of a lifetime”. But opportunities can and will continue to present themselves so no reason to kick yourself if you miss one.

[Coronita]

[quote=deadzone][quote=Coronita][quote=deadzone]Opportunity of a Lifetime? Really?
Buying qualcomm stock in 1995 opportunity of a lifetime.
Bitcoin anytime before 2018 opportunity of a lifetime.
I missed those too. Oh woes me.[/quote]

In san diego, yes qualcomm was a pretty big miss. But that wasn’t my point. My point is that people that try to look for the absolutely bottom will end up missing the bottom. Those people would probably be better off if they just adopted a auto-pilot auto-invest option over 15-20 years….Looking back 20 years if one didn’t do that, it’s very likely they missed the boat. And chances are, it’s not just one type of opportunity, it’s pretty much any opportunity…

It reminds me of this commercial. Not that I believe in crypto. But, the Don’t Be Like Larry is so true in many cases…

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BH5-rSxilxo%5B/quote%5D

Well there are a lot of opportunities to make money on the downside too. I don’t have the risk appetite anymore to put serious money on the short side. But in the last crash I killed it shorting Subprime lenders. Especially New Century and Accredited Lending, both went bankrupt and I gained over 1000% on my deep out of the money puts. One could say that shorting subprime was the “opportunity of a lifetime”. But opportunities can and will continue to present themselves so no reason to kick yourself if you miss one.[/quote]

But you haven’t made significant money on the downside….that’s the problem. Others have because they weren’t timing the exact bottom.But it seems like some folks here that tend to think in terms of absolutes do seem to consistently miss great opportunities a few times now, both in the stock and real estate markets.

[Anonymous]

[quote=Coronita]

But you haven’t made significant money on the downside….that’s the problem. Others have because they weren’t timing the exact bottom.But it seems like some folks here that tend to think in terms of absolutes do seem to consistently miss great opportunities a few times now, both in the stock and real estate markets.[/quote]

Well I made significant money in 07-08 on the downside. But you have to have balls of steel which I no longer have as a family man. Another obvious “opportunity of a lifetime” was to short the Covid stocks such as Zoom, Peloton, Pfizer/Moderna, Zillow, etc. It was beyond obvious that those would crash and burn when Covid ended, and they have. But you have to time it right. I bought some Puts on Zoom in 2020 betting on Covid being short lived, they expired worthless.

[sdrealtor]

[quote=scaredyclassic]Nobody really wants to invest at the real bottom because the bottom feels like everythings going to fall another 50 percent, like it’ll never stop crashing..[/quote]

You did when you took advantage of the opportunity of a lifetime and brought your estate

[sdrealtor]

[quote=deadzone][quote=Coronita]

But you haven’t made significant money on the downside….that’s the problem. Others have because they weren’t timing the exact bottom.But it seems like some folks here that tend to think in terms of absolutes do seem to consistently miss great opportunities a few times now, both in the stock and real estate markets.[/quote]

Well I made significant money in 07-08 on the downside. But you have to have balls of steel which I no longer have as a family man. Another obvious “opportunity of a lifetime” was to short the Covid stocks such as Zoom, Peloton, Pfizer/Moderna, Zillow, etc. It was beyond obvious that those would crash and burn when Covid ended, and they have. But you have to time it right. I bought some Puts on Zoom in 2020 betting on Covid being short lived, they expired worthless.[/quote]

As a family man what’s more important than a roof over one’s head? Buying one when the fixed cost was below current rent was the job of a lifetime missed

[scaredyclassic]

[quote=sdrealtor][quote=scaredyclassic]Nobody really wants to invest at the real bottom because the bottom feels like everythings going to fall another 50 percent, like it’ll never stop crashing..[/quote]

You did when you took advantage of the opportunity of a lifetime and brought your estate[/quote]

That wasn’t me. My wife pressured me. And it definitely didn’t feel good. Did I ever mention I brought alcohol to the closing? Not to celebrate. To drink while signing. Is that normal?

I don’t know if we could qualify to buy it today.

Been dry for over 2 years now…

[Coronita]

[quote=deadzone][quote=Coronita]

But you haven’t made significant money on the downside….that’s the problem. Others have because they weren’t timing the exact bottom.But it seems like some folks here that tend to think in terms of absolutes do seem to consistently miss great opportunities a few times now, both in the stock and real estate markets.[/quote]

Well I made significant money in 07-08 on the downside. But you have to have balls of steel which I no longer have as a family man. Another obvious “opportunity of a lifetime” was to short the Covid stocks such as Zoom, Peloton, Pfizer/Moderna, Zillow, etc. It was beyond obvious that those would crash and burn when Covid ended, and they have. But you have to time it right. I bought some Puts on Zoom in 2020 betting on Covid being short lived, they expired worthless.[/quote]

um… Shorting a stock is a lot riskier than any sort of long term DRIP investment strategy, and it by definition is speculative short term speculation, not investing.

DRIP is an investment strategy.

Shorting for the short term is not an investment strategy, it’s speculation. Huge difference. I’m surprised we even need to discuss this here.

Unless you in the top 10% day trader, you can’t beat the markets in the long term with that alone. And if you can, you wouldn’t be posting here. You’d be working for Goldman Sachs or the likes using their money and collecting insane bonuses.

This is what I find really interesting. You mention about risk and investment for the long term, but everything you have mentioned about what you do appears to be short term speculation, no different than what most of the people on Instagram boasting about how much money they made on short term trades made…except you are on the opposite side of the trade….And this is the exact opposite of what the OP was seeking…

Also, most of these short term speculators love to talk about the kills they made, but gloss over the 9 other transactions that blew up in their face…That I’m pretty sure about….That or the money into those positions aren’t significant enough if they do blow up, that it would make a material impact in their finances (which the opposite is also true, if the stock fell to $0, it probably wouldn’t make a material impact too). It’s easy to speculate on a small hand because the possible losses are small. But if you’re doing this on a large pot of money, for example in a 401k (which I don’t think you can BTW in a 401k plan), then you’re 100x braver than me because I would never do something like this to my long term accounts. It’s just asking for trouble. and frankly, I don’t need quick speculative wins to get ahead.

So from a risk perspective, actually you’re speculation strategy is far more “risky” than what I am doing, fwiw. You essentially are one unexpected FED fiscal policy can kicking action away from getting house cleaned IF that were to happen and your short positions on individual stocks blow up if you still in them. I would never short a stock. I’ve learned my lessons decades ago. All my growth in my accounts where over 15-20 years+. I do do speculative trades in my schwab account, but to be honest over the same long period of time, I’ve underperformed the indexes… Part of me wonders why I still do speculative trades.. But I guess for me it’s more fun than going to Vegas….I’m serious……. my speculative account makes makes up less than 20% of my total net worth, so it does not make a material impact up or down..neither does my gold and precious metal such as platinum, which has been a dog…

[sdrealtor]

[quote=scaredyclassic][quote=sdrealtor][quote=scaredyclassic]Nobody really wants to invest at the real bottom because the bottom feels like everythings going to fall another 50 percent, like it’ll never stop crashing..[/quote]

You did when you took advantage of the opportunity of a lifetime and brought your estate[/quote]

That wasn’t me. My wife pressured me. And it definitely didn’t feel good. Did I ever mention I brought alcohol to the closing? Not to celebrate. To drink while signing. Is that normal?

I don’t know if we could qualify to buy it today.

Been dry for over 2 years now…[/quote]

Whatever it took you got there. Buying real estate here is like buying a car or a TV. It’s seldom feels good at the point of purchase

[Anonymous]

Back to the original Ops question, no the market is not down due to Russia. The downward trajectory started back in November and is due to the Fed announcing they are raising interest rates and possibly the end of their implied “Put”. So if you believe the Fed, now is not a good time to be dropping money in the stock market.

[carlsbadworker]

[quote=bibsoconner]
Where is info on Shiller PE10 Ratio? I was actually trying to determine if the P/E ratio was decent.
[/quote]

Here is the chart:
https://www.multpl.com/shiller-pe

So, yeah, not exactly “cheap”, but still probably cheaper than anytime in 2021.

[scaredyclassic]

I feel the biggest gains come from just not spending money and investing that. How much have I saved over 20 years by not having a cleaning person. It’s staggering! 100k? No dry cleaning shirts ever, iron myself, hmm, 30k? Eating just cabbage and oats for a month? Cheapest vodka? I think one can get almost rich just being ridiculously frugal.

I did just break down and hire a cleaning person recently because my poor wife can’t take it anymore. Man, the place looks clean…but is it better to have money in the account or dust on the shelves?

[Coronita]

[quote=deadzone]Back to the original Ops question, no the market is not down due to Russia. The downward trajectory started back in November and is due to the Fed announcing they are raising interest rates and possibly the end of their implied “Put”. So if you believe the Fed, now is not a good time to be dropping money in the stock market.[/quote]

You didn’t answer my question. Why are you speculating trading via short selling and thinking that is less risky than a DRIP investment strategy over 15-20+ years?

[Coronita]

[quote=scaredyclassic]I feel the biggest gains come from just not spending money and investing that. How much have I saved over 20 years by not having a cleaning person. It’s staggering! 100k? No dry cleaning shirts ever, iron myself, hmm, 30k? Eating just cabbage and oats for a month? Cheapest vodka? I think one can get almost rich just being ridiculously frugal.

I did just break down and hire a cleaning person recently because my poor wife can’t take it anymore. Man, the place looks clean…but is it better to have money in the account or dust on the shelves?[/quote]

$1000/month invested every month for 20 years with 4% average rate of return is roughly $368,997.

$1000/month invested every month for 20 years with 5% average rate of return is roughly $413,746.

$1000/month invested every month for 20 years with 6% average rate of return is roughly $465,351.

Plenty of calculators to do this…

https://smartasset.com/investing/investment-calculator

I mean, speculative trading is fun and like going to Vegas, but seriously building a financial nest for kid or spouse, I wouldn’t count on speculative trading for that purpose. One-shot one hit wonders rarely work for the majority of the people out there…

DRIP is exactly how I built my kid’s 529 college savings account and her UMTA custodian account. It doesn’t all have to be domestic stock. There’s international stock and bonds and fixed income too. And for that safety net, I split things into 4 baskets to spread the risk, domestic, international stock, bonds, and short term cash. When she was younger, larger percentage was allocated to domestic and international stocks, but as we are getting closer to college, that allocation went less stock and more bond-ish, short term cash, and when she start to use it, it will be mostly short term cash to factor out risk of a decline while the money is needed….She’ll have more money for good use than most adults in this country and it was effortless do to this.

If I put her on payroll for a small business, she would have earned income and could start contributing to a Roth IRA every year starting now….A Roth IRA from when she’s 16 to when she’s 56, making regular contributions…$6000/annual Roth IRA contributions 4% average return over 40 years= $622k

And my kid’s 529 plan is roughly 15 years old and the account value is pretty consistent with what the calculators said they would be.

It doesn’t take coming from a really uber rich family to setup your kid for success. It just takes small contributions (that you will barely notice) every month over a long period of time in a tax advantage account and let compounding work for you.

Besides my own 401k, I put most of wage income into after tax accounts, of varying risk. I barely have any debt now, and don’t spend a lot on myself personally, mainly my kid’s education and maybe her school, that’s it.

People are making this way more complicated than it is imho….

[Anonymous]

[quote=Coronita][quote=deadzone]Back to the original Ops question, no the market is not down due to Russia. The downward trajectory started back in November and is due to the Fed announcing they are raising interest rates and possibly the end of their implied “Put”. So if you believe the Fed, now is not a good time to be dropping money in the stock market.[/quote]

You didn’t answer my question. Why are you speculating trading via short selling and thinking that is less risky than a DRIP investment strategy over 15-20+ years?[/quote]

I speculated back in 2006 timeframe because I saw the “opportunity of a lifetime” with the impending housing crash. But I never was into day trading, mostly buying out of the money leap Puts and then just waiting patiently. I don’t day trade today either, but certainly you can’t deny the stock market is a casino and many of the moves are quite predictable.

[Coronita]

[quote=deadzone]

I speculated back in 2006 timeframe because I saw the “opportunity of a lifetime” with the impending housing crash. But I never was into day trading, mostly buying out of the money leap Puts and then just waiting patiently. I don’t day trade today either, but certainly you can’t deny the stock market is a casino and many of the moves are quite predictable.[/quote]

O really ? 🙂

[Author]

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