4% 30 Year Mortgage

[trex]

How long until it matters? Tons of cash chasing deals out there.

[Coronita]

10/1 rates are low.

[an]

Didn’t stop the price increase in the 70s.

[spdrun]

Didn’t stop the price increase in the 70s.

Rates were mostly 7-9% until 1979-80, when they shot up to 11%.

Under 3% to over 5% represents a bigger % variance than existed through much of the 70s.

[The-Shoveler]

One more coincidence or similarity to current times is the boomers were just hitting their 30’s. but come 89-early 90’s in LA at least when the cold war was winding down things went south fairly quickly. Took almost to 97-99 before the next bubble got really going and housing (in LA) to really recover.

[sdrealtor]

[quote=The-Shoveler]One more coincidence or similarity to current times is the boomers were just hitting their 30’s. but come 89-early 90’s in LA at least when the cold war was winding down things went south fairly quickly. Took almost to 97-99 before the next bubble got really going and housing (in LA) to really recover.[/quote]

I remember how rough things were in early 90s around here. I went back to grad school and then moved back east for a couple years to finish those degrees. Very fortunate to have come back in 97 ready to buy my first home. I’ve made many very smart decisions along the way but they were all made possible by the luck of that game changing timing that created the opportunity of a lifetime for me that I recognized and jumped at

[barnaby33]

Rates bottomed around 2.75% for a 30 year fixed? If so the move to 4% is massive in terms of % increase. Given how much greater our entire economy (not just housing) is levered to interest rates, I’ll be shocked if this doesn’t blunt to top appreciation.
Josh

[sdrealtor]

Im below 2.75% so I guess I beat it again:)

Again people keep missing the point Ive been trying to make. When rates were that low the lenders didnt offer anything but 30 yr and if hybrid adjustable (10/1, 7/1. 5/1) the rate was not all that different. We have all gotten used to only 30 yr rates.

Youve all forgotten about those hybrid products. When I bought my home in 1999 it was with a 5/1 ARM at 7.125%. Virtually no one keeps a loan for 30 years and few are still in place 10 years later. We are going to see the 10/1 and 7/1 come roaring back into favor very quickly. Its what the market always does when rates are no longer falling. Mark my words this market has more legs than you think. Im not saying more 20%+ years but we arent done going up and we are not falling appreciably anytime in the next few years. Feel free to bookmark this post. This will be yet another prediction I’ll be proven right on

[XBoxBoy]

[quote=sdrealtor]Virtually no one keeps a loan for 30 years and few are still in place 10 years later.[/quote]

I would bet that the percentage of people keeping their 30 year loans more than 10 years will increase in the coming decades. A lot of people with really low rates ain’t going no where, and probably won’t get a good opportunity to refinance. Just a hunch.

[sdrealtor]

I agree that more will but as they say life gets in the way for a lot of us

[Coronita]

[quote=XBoxBoy][quote=sdrealtor]Virtually no one keeps a loan for 30 years and few are still in place 10 years later.[/quote]

I would bet that the percentage of people keeping their 30 year loans more than 10 years will increase in the coming decades. A lot of people with really low rates ain’t going no where, and probably won’t get a good opportunity to refinance. Just a hunch.[/quote]

I think with low 30 year interest rates locked in 3% and below, that’s below where people say a 4% decent investment is. So yes, I’d think some folks even will eventually be a landlord even if they wanted to move elsewhere. New buyers however, I can seem getting 10/1 arms.

[spdrun]

10/1 rates are low.

Now that would be fun to watch … investors taking ARMs now, then being forced into shortsale when they re-adjust.

[The-Shoveler]

I remember my friend paying extra points to get an 11% fixed rate in the 80’s.

Housing was still going nuts in LA at that time, but there was a crazy amount of defense spending the cold war was on full steam.

[The-Shoveler]

There are probably going to be a lot of new mortgage products.

50 – 70 – 100 year mortgages
interest only
Maybe equity sharing.

Who knows, the issue this time is we are not overbuilt so a big housing crash is unlikely IMO.

[pencilneck]

Hypothetical:

Two contrasting rates and expectations:

30 year @ 2.75% – inflation at 2% annualized with long term expectations in the 2-3% range.

30 year @ 4% – inflation at 7% annualized with long term expectations in the 3-7% range.

Isn’t the second loan less expensive than the first?

[Anonymous]

MBS market continues to crap the bed, blowing past 52 week low today. And Fed still hasn’t even begun to unwind their MBS holdings.

[sdrealtor]

Oddly enough my house keeps going up around here just like the everyone else’s. Supply and Demand

[Anonymous]

Until it doesn’t. Rapidly rising interest rates definitely not going to increase demand in the long run.

[sdrealtor]

Who cares! My house is already worth double what my wildest dreams were and its still going. You dont understand how real estate works. Wait for the adjustable loan products to deal with those rising rates. Bookmark it!

And demand is 10X or more supply. Less demand not as big an issue as you beleive. This is probably the tightest market in the country! opportunity of a lifetime missed!

https://cdn.substack.com/image/fetch/f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F73f61974-f64c-4610-af7b-78ae7bbaa5f2_653x805.png

https://cdn.substack.com/image/fetch/f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F2e6b95e4-af5c-478d-b053-7183880f5703_513x680.png

[Anonymous]

[quote=sdrealtor]Who cares! My house is already worth double what my wildest dreams were and its still going. You dont understand how real estate works. Wait for the adjustable loan products to deal with those rising rates. Bookmark it!

And demand is 10X or more supply. Less demand not as big an issue as you beleive. This is probably the tightest market in the country! opportunity of a lifetime missed!

https://cdn.substack.com/image/fetch/f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F73f61974-f64c-4610-af7b-78ae7bbaa5f2_653x805.png

https://cdn.substack.com/image/fetch/f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F2e6b95e4-af5c-478d-b053-7183880f5703_513x680.png%5B/quote%5D

Who cares? Apparently you do, or else why would you comment on this? Seems to me that deep down you are worried, very worried about this whole bubble thing going POP.

But really there is no debating someone who truly believes RE isn’t interest rate sensitive, it is like trying to argue with a flat earther.

[sdrealtor]

Not worried in the least. I just met with a builder to add a 2BR/2BA unit on that will have a 5 to 6 year payback with an insane cap rate.

You do not understand how this all works which is why you missed out on the GOOAL! Its not that interest rates dont matter its that there are still lots of tools out there like hybrid adjustable rate mortgages as well as massive amounts of cash and buyers. Tightest market in the country! GOOAL!

[Anonymous]

[quote=sdrealtor]Not worried in the least. I just met with a builder to add a 2BR/2BA unit on that will have a 5 to 6 year payback with an insane cap rate.

You do not understand how this all works which is why you missed out on the GOOAL! Its not that interest rates dont matter its that there are still lots of tools out there like hybrid adjustable rate mortgages as well as massive amounts of cash and buyers. Tightest market in the country! GOOAL![/quote]

Okay we’ll see how many cash buyers are still out there later this year as interest rates keep ratcheting up.

[Coronita]

[quote=deadzone]

Okay we’ll see how many cash buyers are still out there later this year as interest rates keep ratcheting up.[/quote]

Huh? This makes no sense whatsoever…..

Higher loan rates, you would see more cash buyers. Lower loan rates, you would see more smart money that would want to put the least amount of money into their house because rates are so cheap.

With a 3% 30 year, why would you want to own outright, unless you simply had too much money than what you know to do with it?

What I’m more curious about is out of these $1million homes, how many of them are putting 20-25% down and what sort of demographics they are.

If I were to guess I would say the bulk of them are 20-25% or round up to a $1million loan @ around 3% …enginerds at a decent company, $20-25K monthly income, carrying a $5000/month mortgage… Easy peasy…

[sdrealtor]

Who said anything about cash buyers? Just did a run through recent sales in MM in the 1.2 to 1.5 range. Pretty much all of em put down 20 to 30%. Why would they put down more? A quick cross reference with LinkedIn shows lots of techy couples at QCOM, Apple, Amazon etc. Figure it costs about $5K/month to borrow $1M with rates above 4% which is not a stretch for folks with $20 to 35K monthly HH incomes. Well within ratios and most of these folks are pretty frugal otherwise. There are tons of folks like that

[Coronita]

[quote=sdrealtor]Who said anything about cash buyers? Just did a run through recent sales in MM in the 1.2 to 1.5 range. Pretty much all of em put down 20 to 30%. Why would they put down more? A quick cross reference with LinkedIn shows lots of techy couples at QCOM, Apple, Amazon etc. Figure it costs about $5K/month to borrow $1M which is not a stretch for folks with $20 to 35K monthly HH incomes. Well within ratios and most of these folks are pretty frugal otherwise. There are tons of folks like that[/quote]

Lol, I called it…

G….OOAL…….

[sdrealtor]

Yes you did!

[Coronita]

G…OOAL….!!!!

Greatest Opportunity of a Lifetime.

Just like soccer!!!

[Coronita]

https://www.redfin.com/CA/San-Diego/7785-Norcanyon-Way-92126/home/4557024?utm_source=android_share&utm_medium=share&utm_nooverride=1&utm_content=link&2010988919=variant&813945303=variant

G…OOAL…..

1.65m in Mira Mesa. lolol

[ucodegen]

On an earlier post

[quote=Coronita]https://www.redfin.com/CA/San-Diego/7785-Norcanyon-Way-92126/home/4557024?utm_source=android_share&utm_medium=share&utm_nooverride=1&utm_content=link&2010988919=variant&813945303=variant

G…OOAL…..

1.65m in Mira Mesa. lolol[/quote]
Something is really hinky on this one. Looked at sale history-including pattern of price changes, who owns, tax record.. and records of people involved… Not posting names – but if you know where to look. Names are unusual enough for uniqueness.

[Coronita]

So it would be interesting to see for a list of closings in MM over $1mil what sort of loan these people are getting and the type of buyers…

[Coronita]

But wait. Aren’t these buyers/borrowers remote workers that work for the bay area and now that everyone has to return back to work, don’t they need to sell?

I mean, they can’t possibly be working here locally in San Diego in one of them local offices since clearly we haven’t seen any meaningful job expansion in San Diego recently, right? I mean, these people who work at Amazon, Apple must all have to go back to work at Amazon and Apple headquarters not based out of San Diego, and it will be a firesale home prices, right?

I mean, their linkedin profile must be saying they are based out of Seattle and Bay Area, right?

[sdrealtor]

Lots of healthcare workers also. Physicians and PA’s abound! Research scientists, business owners too. Just not many defense guys

[an]

Dude, I can’t compete with all those peeps and their $$$! 2008 needs to happen again so that way everyone is miserable and has no job.

[Anonymous]

[quote=an]Dude, I can’t compete with all those peeps and their $$$! 2008 needs to happen again so that way everyone is miserable and has no job.[/quote]

Don’t worry, higher interest rates will pop the bubble just like they did in mid-2000s. Never in history has the economy been so dependent on near zero interest rates and Fed manipulating the markets (by literally printing money to purchase mortgage debt). If the Fed actually follows through on their words, it is game over. (Big If I know).

SDR doesn’t understand the mechanics of our Fed based economy, he’s too busy snooping on people’s linkedin profiles. Creepy MFer.

[sdrealtor]

[quote=deadzone][quote=an]Dude, I can’t compete with all those peeps and their $$$! 2008 needs to happen again so that way everyone is miserable and has no job.[/quote]

Don’t worry, higher interest rates will pop the bubble just like they did in mid-2000s. Never in history has the economy been so dependent on near zero interest rates and Fed manipulating the markets (by literally printing money to purchase mortgage debt). If the Fed actually follows through on their words, it is game over. (Big If I know).

SDR doesn’t understand the mechanics of our Fed based economy, he’s too busy snooping on people’s linkedin profiles. Creepy MFer.[/quote]

You’ll still never get one here.

[an]

[quote=deadzone][quote=an]Dude, I can’t compete with all those peeps and their $$$! 2008 needs to happen again so that way everyone is miserable and has no job.[/quote]

Don’t worry, higher interest rates will pop the bubble just like they did in mid-2000s. Never in history has the economy been so dependent on near zero interest rates and Fed manipulating the markets (by literally printing money to purchase mortgage debt). If the Fed actually follows through on their words, it is game over. (Big If I know).

SDR doesn’t understand the mechanics of our Fed based economy, he’s too busy snooping on people’s linkedin profiles. Creepy MFer.[/quote]I’m not worried. I would much rather we repeat the 70s and housing goes up 5-10x and savings rate goes up to 10%.

[Anonymous]

[quote=an][quote=deadzone][quote=an]Dude, I can’t compete with all those peeps and their $$$! 2008 needs to happen again so that way everyone is miserable and has no job.[/quote]

Don’t worry, higher interest rates will pop the bubble just like they did in mid-2000s. Never in history has the economy been so dependent on near zero interest rates and Fed manipulating the markets (by literally printing money to purchase mortgage debt). If the Fed actually follows through on their words, it is game over. (Big If I know).

SDR doesn’t understand the mechanics of our Fed based economy, he’s too busy snooping on people’s linkedin profiles. Creepy MFer.[/quote]I’m not worried. I would much rather we repeat the 70s and housing goes up 5-10x and savings rate goes up to 10%.[/quote]

Man what’s your fascination with the 70s dude? That level of inflation would decimate the finances of the majority of the population.

[sdrealtor]

As would the equity and housing crash you’ve been cheering for the last couple years. Pot meet kettle

[Anonymous]

[quote=sdrealtor]As would the equity and housing crash you’ve been cheering for the last couple years. Pot meet kettle[/quote]

Not even close. Housing “correction” of 30% or so would have minimal impact on the vast majority of the population that either don’t own real estate, or have significant equity built up. Would mainly impact the investor class. And for everyone else, prices of things would go down. Win/Win

[Anonymous]

Mortgage rates ripping higher again today. Getting close to 5% on the 30year fixed. The title of this thread is already obsolete.

[sdrealtor]

[quote=deadzone]Mortgage rates ripping higher again today. Getting close to 5% on the 30year fixed. The title of this thread is already obsolete.[/quote]

Uhhhh….no. Having coffee with lender friend 30 years experience over 10,000 loans. He’s at 4.25% no points right now. But he’s doing 10/1’s now anyway

[Anonymous]

[quote=sdrealtor][quote=deadzone]Mortgage rates ripping higher again today. Getting close to 5% on the 30year fixed. The title of this thread is already obsolete.[/quote]

Uhhhh….no. Having coffee with lender friend 30 years experience over 10,000 loans. He’s at 4.25% no points right now. But he’s doing 10/1’s now anyway[/quote]

I call BS on that. You and your imaginary friends.

[sdrealtor]

[quote=deadzone][quote=sdrealtor][quote=deadzone]Mortgage rates ripping higher again today. Getting close to 5% on the 30year fixed. The title of this thread is already obsolete.[/quote]

Uhhhh….no. Having coffee with lender friend 30 years experience over 10,000 loans. He’s at 4.25% no points right now. But he’s doing 10/1’s now anyway[/quote]

I call BS on that. You and your imaginary friends.[/quote]

Ummm…No. Here is an imaginary website. I’ve used them in past and rate is exactly what is posted

https://www.aimloan.com/home/e2ce626011167a6

[Coronita]

[quote=sdrealtor][quote=deadzone][quote=sdrealtor][quote=deadzone]Mortgage rates ripping higher again today. Getting close to 5% on the 30year fixed. The title of this thread is already obsolete.[/quote]

Uhhhh….no. Having coffee with lender friend 30 years experience over 10,000 loans. He’s at 4.25% no points right now. But he’s doing 10/1’s now anyway[/quote]

I call BS on that. You and your imaginary friends.[/quote]

Ummm…No. Here is an imaginary website. I’ve used them in past and rate is exactly what is posted

https://www.aimloan.com/home/e2ce626011167a6%5B/quote%5D

Double checked with an old lender I used a long time ago. Yup. These are slightly lower because you have to be a Aerospace Corp employee, but still..

https://aerofcu.mortgagewebcenter.com/

People that bought homes and/or refinanced before would know where to shop around for a loan, and see that these rates are fairly accurate. Key word, people that bought homes and/or refinanced before.

[sdrealtor]

The funniest part is I know exactly where dumbzone got that. he reads something on the internet and thinks hes an expert. Bill on Calculated Risk posted a lender sent him a rate sheet with rate close to 5% so he read it and ran with it without verifying that it was an extreme outlier. Silly dumbzone, real estate is for pros

[Anonymous]

[quote=sdrealtor] real estate is for pros[/quote]

Hah, funniest thing I’ve heard in a while. Any high school dropout can be a RE agent or mortgage broker, hardly a complex career field.

And those rates you quoted were BS. Show me evidence of an actual loan in SD that closed today with that rate? I dare you. Not happening.

Rates are currently 4.72% for 30year fixed. You can get this on any number of financial websites.

[Coronita]

[quote=deadzone][quote=sdrealtor] real estate is for pros[/quote]

Hah, funniest thing I’ve heard in a while. Any high school dropout can be a RE agent or mortgage broker, hardly a complex career field.

And those rates you quoted were BS. Show me evidence of an actual loan in SD that closed today with that rate? I dare you. Not happening.

Rates are currently 4.72% for 30year fixed. You can get this on any number of financial websites.[/quote]

Dude, you’re ax grinding mentality is starting to make sense. You think you are better and smarter than people, and yet despite that, apparently you missed out GOOOAL and can’t stand it… Am I right?

[Anonymous]

[quote=Coronita][quote=deadzone][quote=sdrealtor] real estate is for pros[/quote]

Hah, funniest thing I’ve heard in a while. Any high school dropout can be a RE agent or mortgage broker, hardly a complex career field.

And those rates you quoted were BS. Show me evidence of an actual loan in SD that closed today with that rate? I dare you. Not happening.

Rates are currently 4.72% for 30year fixed. You can get this on any number of financial websites.[/quote]

Dude, you’re ax grinding mentality is starting to make sense. You think you are better and smarter than people, and yet despite that, apparently you missed out GOOOAL and can’t stand it… Am I right?[/quote]

Whatever, now you are just turning into a douche like SDR.
Point is interest rates are going up substantially, very quickly. If you think RE prices are going to continue going up in this environment then I’ll leave you to your fantasy. That suggests that you don’t believe the historically low interest rates these last few years didn’t fuel the current RE boom in the first place. You can’t have it both ways.

[sdrealtor]

“And those rates you quoted were BS. Show me evidence of an actual loan in SD that closed today with that rate? I dare you. Not happening.”

No love for sdr? I have clients literally signing loan documents right now for what you said is not happening!

You seriously are the best set up man in the business. Will you be my wingman?

The point is you are consistently wrong. You should adopt the George Costanza mentality and do the exact opposite of whatever you think you should. Lots of things fueled the rise not just interest rates

[sdrealtor]

[quote=deadzone][quote=sdrealtor] real estate is for pros[/quote]

Hah, funniest thing I’ve heard in a while. Any high school dropout can be a RE agent or mortgage broker, hardly a complex career field.

And those rates you quoted were BS. Show me evidence of an actual loan in SD that closed today with that rate? I dare you. Not happening.

Rates are currently 4.72% for 30year fixed. You can get this on any number of financial websites.[/quote]

You mean like this condo closing today at 3.875?

And if you don’t think it’s real how about a bet? I’ll put up the deed to my house and you put up say $1000? I’ll be happy to take your $$$

I don’t care, it’s just fun teasing you

And I know tons of people who are benefitting that are far from the wealthy class. It’s doomer permabears like you cheering for a crash that are among the suffering

And yes if you look on the mass media sites you see higher rates but people that actually buy know where to look at actual lenders. Go to aimloan.com

Local lender. You can get the posted rate right now. Give ‘em a call. Operators are standing by!! Gooal!!!

[sdrealtor]

[quote=deadzone][quote=sdrealtor] real estate is for pros[/quote]

Hah, funniest thing I’ve heard in a while. Any high school dropout can be a RE agent or mortgage broker, hardly a complex career field.

And those rates you quoted were BS. Show me evidence of an actual loan in SD that closed today with that rate? I dare you. Not happening.

Rates are currently 4.72% for 30year fixed. You can get this on any number of financial websites.[/quote]

Operators standing by…

[gzz]

I see the 15 year went up much less. For a while you only saved like .3 with a 15 and <0.1% with a 20. SDR’s aimloan link shows a 0.75% savings with a 15 and .375 with a 20.

[sdrealtor]

[quote=deadzone][quote=sdrealtor]As would the equity and housing crash you’ve been cheering for the last couple years. Pot meet kettle[/quote]

Not even close. Housing “correction” of 30% or so would have minimal impact on the vast majority of the population that either don’t own real estate, or have significant equity built up. Would mainly impact the investor class. And for everyone else, prices of things would go down. Win/Win[/quote]

Uhhhh…..no and you are cheering for full on crash. Hypocrite

[Anonymous]

[quote=sdrealtor][quote=deadzone][quote=sdrealtor]As would the equity and housing crash you’ve been cheering for the last couple years. Pot meet kettle[/quote]

Not even close. Housing “correction” of 30% or so would have minimal impact on the vast majority of the population that either don’t own real estate, or have significant equity built up. Would mainly impact the investor class. And for everyone else, prices of things would go down. Win/Win[/quote]

Uhhhh…..no and you are cheering for full on crash. Hypocrite[/quote]

What’s a full on crash in your book? Yes lower prices in general are better for everyone except the investor class. What are you cheering for?
You are obviously a fan boy for the expansion of the wealth divide. Basically an elitist prick who masquerades as a liberal democrat.

[sdrealtor]

[quote=deadzone][quote=sdrealtor][quote=deadzone][quote=sdrealtor]As would the equity and housing crash you’ve been cheering for the last couple years. Pot meet kettle[/quote]

Not even close. Housing “correction” of 30% or so would have minimal impact on the vast majority of the population that either don’t own real estate, or have significant equity built up. Would mainly impact the investor class. And for everyone else, prices of things would go down. Win/Win[/quote]

Uhhhh…..no and you are cheering for full on crash. Hypocrite[/quote]

What’s a full on crash in your book? Yes lower prices in general are better for everyone except the investor class. What are you cheering for?
You are obviously a fan boy for the expansion of the wealth divide. Basically an elitist prick who masquerades as a liberal democrat.[/quote]

Now that’s funny! I would love lower prices and more affordability in my hood. Love seeing young happy positive families move in around me. I’m not cheering for anything. I just deliver reports on what I see with a side of misery for you lol

[Anonymous]

[quote=sdrealtor]

So why does any discussion of market corrections, crashes, etc. bother you so much? You are truly delusional. If you are so financially secure, why do you care? Just to spite me? I’m financially well off either way. I just prefer the market distortions correct themselves because it is truly hurting a great majority of people in this country and only benefiting the wealthy class.

[Coronita]

[quote=deadzone][quote=sdrealtor][quote=deadzone][quote=sdrealtor]As would the equity and housing crash you’ve been cheering for the last couple years. Pot meet kettle[/quote]

Not even close. Housing “correction” of 30% or so would have minimal impact on the vast majority of the population that either don’t own real estate, or have significant equity built up. Would mainly impact the investor class. And for everyone else, prices of things would go down. Win/Win[/quote]

Uhhhh…..no and you are cheering for full on crash. Hypocrite[/quote]

What’s a full on crash in your book? Yes lower prices in general are better for everyone except the investor class. What are you cheering for?
You are obviously a fan boy for the expansion of the wealth divide. Basically an elitist prick who masquerades as a liberal democrat.[/quote]

Uh, huh? Investor class can make money whether home prices are high or low, it depends on which kind of investor.

If prices are lower, more investors with lesser deep pockets have more opportunity to buy too. Personally if prices correct, count me in and I’ll be happy to jump right back into buying more.

I think that’s the difference dz between you and others. You have an ax to grind and somehow are hell bent on a crash in order for you to be made whole. I don’t think most people here really care if this do correct, because (1) we’ve already taken advantage of the GOOAL crash of 2008 and now have a much stronger financial base to build off of so that (2) if things do correct, were more financially equipped to jump on that too. We just think you’ll be disappointed.

But I do understand how you might need things to crash in order to feel made whole. Good luck to you on that one.

Politics and political parties have nothing to do with your financial well being. But a lot of people like to blame politicians for their own poor financial decisions. That’s the case on both side. Not sure why you would bring that up in this context, besides again trying to grind an ax.

[an]

[quote=deadzone]Man what’s your fascination with the 70s dude? That level of inflation would decimate the finances of the majority of the population.[/quote]
As Coronita like to say, not my problem. BTW, I did well and took advantage GOOAL during the last major crash. So, I’ll be super happy with that too. However, I’ll be making even more if we see the repeat of the 70s. Since I already experienced a crash, I want to experience stagflation next.

[Anonymous]

[quote=an][quote=deadzone]Man what’s your fascination with the 70s dude? That level of inflation would decimate the finances of the majority of the population.[/quote]
As Coronita like to say, not my problem. BTW, I did well and took advantage GOOAL during the last major crash. So, I’ll be super happy with that too. However, I’ll be making even more if we see the repeat of the 70s. Since I already experienced a crash, I want to experience stagflation next.[/quote]

Okay, to each his own. But that’s not going to happen. As pointed out, interest rates are shooting up and Fed is painted in the corner. If they let inflation get any more out of control, we would be looking at potential for mass civil disorder and riots. If you think George Floyd riled up the masses, wait till they find out a new iPhone costs $5000.

[gzz]

Interest rates are headed back down.

Already, real interest rates are -3% (7% inflation 4% mortgage).

Inflation is probably headed back down in a year or two. We’ll be back to 1.5-3% inflation and 2.5-3% rates.

But while inflation itself can be hard to predict, real interest rates are easier.

Rich people have more and more money they want to invest rather than purchase consumption items.

The pool of creditworthy borrowers, however, is in permanent demographic decline.

Places like Germany and Japan, where demographic decline is more advanced than the USA, have had deeply negative real rates for a long time.

[Coronita]

…

[Coronita]

Speaking of inflation… LOL…

[img_assist|nid=27550|title=costcogas|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=500]

Thank god I am fully remote and only need to fill up this SUV or any other car for that matter for leisure once every few weeks.

Not that I drive my SUV to work anyway when I had to go in person.

Hmm, had to go see my tenant yesterday while driving this car… Write off.

[Coronita]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BH5-rSxilxo

[sdrealtor]

A $7M house in Encinitas just sold the 1st day on market.

Buyer must be trying to get in before rates go up!!

[XBoxBoy]

[quote=sdrealtor]A $7M house in Encinitas just sold the 1st day on market.

Buyer must be trying to get in before rates go up!![/quote]

I realize you’re just poking fun, but wouldn’t most buyers of $7mil properties be paying cash? How often are loans even involved in 4mil+ purchases?

[sdrealtor]

[quote=XBoxBoy][quote=sdrealtor]A $7M house in Encinitas just sold the 1st day on market.

Buyer must be trying to get in before rates go up!![/quote]

I realize you’re just poking fun, but wouldn’t most buyers of $7mil properties be paying cash? How often are loans even involved in 4mil+ purchases?[/quote]

Of course they are. lol

Only exception I can think of is sometimes the big brokerages make big loans to clients based upon pledged assets

[The-Shoveler]

[quote=Coronita]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BH5-rSxilxo[/quote]

LOL I love that commercial, but that said I would not touch crypto or nft’s with a 10 foot pole.

IMO one day most everyone will wake up and say,

“this is just a bunch of numbers in a computer with nothing to back it up”

Same for digital RE IMHO.

[Coronita]

[quote=The-Shoveler][quote=Coronita]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BH5-rSxilxo[/quote]

LOL I love that commercial, but that said I would not touch crypto or nft’s with a 10 foot pole.

IMO one day most everyone will wake up and say,

“this is just a bunch of numbers in a computer with nothing to back it up”

Same for digital RE IMHO.[/quote]

I agree.

[gzz]

Zuckerberg had a mortgage on his $10 million house in Palo Alto, which represents less than 0.02% of his net worth.

[limkotir]

The Buy, Borrow and Die wealth planning strategy?:

[Coronita]

[quote=limkotir]The Buy, Borrow and Die wealth planning strategy?:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8pBPZMUcsh0%5B/quote%5D

Uh. Anyone can do this actually. Anyone with a home, even a primary home, can always borrow against the equity. It’s what people do with it that matters.

Lot’s of people in this country borrow against their equity and burn through it on worthless things.

[scaredyclassic]

Anyone else planning to dispose of all assets while alive, run up huge personal lines of credit at end of life and then die?

Is this commonly done?

[sdrealtor]

Planning to drink massive amounts of wine and bourbon I’ve collected the last 30 years, play golf and watch assets appreciate untouched before my death exit to a standing ovation! Enjoy me while I’m here!!!

[scaredyclassic]

[quote=sdrealtor]Planning to drink massive amounts of wine and bourbon I’ve collected the last 30 years, play golf and watch assets appreciate untouched before my death exit to a standing ovation! Enjoy me while I’m here!!![/quote]

Not bad, but there is a certain king lear beauty to becoming utterly penniless but also shafting creditors.

[sdrealtor]

[quote=scaredyclassic][quote=sdrealtor]Planning to drink massive amounts of wine and bourbon I’ve collected the last 30 years, play golf and watch assets appreciate untouched before my death exit to a standing ovation! Enjoy me while I’m here!!![/quote]

Not bad, but there is a certain king lear beauty to becoming utterly penniless but also shafting creditors.[/quote]

Having spent a lot of time, effort and foregone much income the last 30 years in the name of living a life of integrity thats not something Im willing to give up in death

[scaredyclassic]

[quote=sdrealtor][quote=scaredyclassic][quote=sdrealtor]Planning to drink massive amounts of wine and bourbon I’ve collected the last 30 years, play golf and watch assets appreciate untouched before my death exit to a standing ovation! Enjoy me while I’m here!!![/quote]

Not bad, but there is a certain king lear beauty to becoming utterly penniless but also shafting creditors.[/quote]

Having spent a lot of time, effort and foregone much income the last 30 years in the name of living a life of integrity thats not something Im willing to give up in death[/quote]

Some religions believe lending with interest is immoral and lacks integrity. It is illegal, but arguments could be made it’s not immoral.

[sdrealtor]

[quote=scaredyclassic][quote=sdrealtor][quote=scaredyclassic][quote=sdrealtor]Planning to drink massive amounts of wine and bourbon I’ve collected the last 30 years, play golf and watch assets appreciate untouched before my death exit to a standing ovation! Enjoy me while I’m here!!![/quote]

Not bad, but there is a certain king lear beauty to becoming utterly penniless but also shafting creditors.[/quote]

Having spent a lot of time, effort and foregone much income the last 30 years in the name of living a life of integrity thats not something Im willing to give up in death[/quote]

Some religions believe lending with interest is immoral and lacks integrity. It is illegal, but arguments could be made it’s not immoral.[/quote]

I don’t lend money. I say no or I gift it

[scaredyclassic]

[quote=sdrealtor][quote=scaredyclassic][quote=sdrealtor][quote=scaredyclassic][quote=sdrealtor]Planning to drink massive amounts of wine and bourbon I’ve collected the last 30 years, play golf and watch assets appreciate untouched before my death exit to a standing ovation! Enjoy me while I’m here!!![/quote]

Not bad, but there is a certain king lear beauty to becoming utterly penniless but also shafting creditors.[/quote]

Having spent a lot of time, effort and foregone much income the last 30 years in the name of living a life of integrity thats not something Im willing to give up in death[/quote]

Some religions believe lending with interest is immoral and lacks integrity. It is illegal, but arguments could be made it’s not immoral.[/quote]

I don’t lend money. I say no or I gift it[/quote]

I meant the whole usurious system might be immoral. If so, borrowing and not repaying might be no more immoral than the whole foundation of our economy, at least if youre anti usury

[sdrealtor]

[quote=scaredyclassic][quote=sdrealtor][quote=scaredyclassic][quote=sdrealtor][quote=scaredyclassic][quote=sdrealtor]Planning to drink massive amounts of wine and bourbon I’ve collected the last 30 years, play golf and watch assets appreciate untouched before my death exit to a standing ovation! Enjoy me while I’m here!!![/quote]

Not bad, but there is a certain king lear beauty to becoming utterly penniless but also shafting creditors.[/quote]

Having spent a lot of time, effort and foregone much income the last 30 years in the name of living a life of integrity thats not something Im willing to give up in death[/quote]

Some religions believe lending with interest is immoral and lacks integrity. It is illegal, but arguments could be made it’s not immoral.[/quote]

I don’t lend money. I say no or I gift it[/quote]

I meant the whole usurious system might be immoral. If so, borrowing and not repaying might be no more immoral than the whole foundation of our economy, at least if youre anti usury[/quote]

The key is pay now, consume later. Friends ask me how can I justify drinking a bottle of wine that is now worth so much. My answer is I bought it years ago and don’t remember paying for it. Tonight we are drinking it, tonight it’s free

[gzz]

“ run up huge personal lines of credit at end of life and then die?
Is this commonly done?”

Not too often. The elderly aren’t big on extravagant living.

That’s why our aging society will tend toward deflation and low to negative rates: higher desired savings than creditworthy borrowers.

[scaredyclassic]

[quote=gzz]“ run up huge personal lines of credit at end of life and then die?
Is this commonly done?”

Not too often. The elderly aren’t big on extravagant living.

That’s why our aging society will tend toward deflation and low to negative rates: higher desired savings than creditworthy borrowers.[/quote]

Top of the line sr homes, hospice, high grade drugs…all on credit!!! Then fight the eviction when u stop paying…go big old man…

[sdrealtor]

FWIW after spiking last week rates have fallen back the last 2 days

[Anonymous]

[quote=sdrealtor]FWIW after spiking last week rates have fallen back the last 2 days[/quote]

Thank goodness, crisis averted.

[spdrun]

Average 30-yr was below 3% about 6 months ago. Now, it’s what, 4.25%? And the hikes are just beginning.

[Anonymous]

[quote=spdrun]Average 30-yr was below 3% about 6 months ago. Now, it’s what, 4.25%? And the hikes are just beginning.[/quote]

Actually 4.68% today. But who’s counting? Apparently interest rates don’t impact the local housing market according to the “Professionals” on this board.

[sdrealtor]

[quote=deadzone][quote=spdrun]Average 30-yr was below 3% about 6 months ago. Now, it’s what, 4.25%? And the hikes are just beginning.[/quote]

Actually 4.68% today. But who’s counting? Apparently interest rates don’t impact the local housing market according to the “Professionals” on this board.[/quote]

Clients closed at 3.875 yesterday. Another locked at 4% today. Still waiting for you to accept that bet, I’ve got the deed to my house ready to put up to your $1000. You continue making ignorant claims while I bring verified data making you look the fool.

Operators are standing by. Call to get yours too!

https://www.aimloan.com/home/84d5f76bbfa60cd

[JPJones]

[quote=deadzone][quote=spdrun]Average 30-yr was below 3% about 6 months ago. Now, it’s what, 4.25%? And the hikes are just beginning.[/quote]

Actually 4.68% today. But who’s counting? Apparently interest rates don’t impact the local housing market according to the “Professionals” on this board.[/quote]

What are your credentials? What is your source on that 4.68% number?

[sdrealtor]

[quote=JPJones][quote=deadzone][quote=spdrun]Average 30-yr was below 3% about 6 months ago. Now, it’s what, 4.25%? And the hikes are just beginning.[/quote]

Actually 4.68% today. But who’s counting? Apparently interest rates don’t impact the local housing market according to the “Professionals” on this board.[/quote]

What are your credentials? What is your source on that 4.68% number?[/quote]

The answer is when he enters his financial credentials he gets rates for sub prime loans

[XBoxBoy]

[quote=JPJones][quote=deadzone][quote=spdrun]Average 30-yr was below 3% about 6 months ago. Now, it’s what, 4.25%? And the hikes are just beginning.[/quote]

Actually 4.68% today. But who’s counting? Apparently interest rates don’t impact the local housing market according to the “Professionals” on this board.[/quote]

What are your credentials? What is your source on that 4.68% number?[/quote]

I suspect that deadzone is quoting the rate listed on Mortgage News Daily. https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/

3/23/2020 the stated rate is 4.68%. Keep in mind that is an average for loans available yesterday. When sdrealtor quotes that a client just closed at such and such, that loan was started a month or more ago when rates were lower. And with points you can always lower your rate.

From my experience Mortgage news daily is well worth following if you want to see what rates are doing. The question/issue isn’t what rates are today, the question is how will these increased rates impact real estate. So far inventory numbers tell me the answer is not so much. Of course, maybe it’s too soon to tell.

[an]

[quote=XBoxBoy]
I suspect that deadzone is quoting the rate listed on Mortgage News Daily. https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/

3/23/2020 the stated rate is 4.68%. Keep in mind that is an average for loans available yesterday. When sdrealtor quotes that a client just closed at such and such, that loan was started a month or more ago when rates were lower. And with points you can always lower your rate.

From my experience Mortgage news daily is well worth following if you want to see what rates are doing. The question/issue isn’t what rates are today, the question is how will these increased rates impact real estate. So far inventory numbers tell me the answer is not so much. Of course, maybe it’s too soon to tell.[/quote]
It’s not just points that can change the rate, loan amount and credit score play a huge role as well. I just checked 30 years fixed if I would refi today and I’m seeing rates @ 4% with 0 point.
Go here and check for yourself: https://www.zillow.com/mortgage-rates/

Just like in real estate, you don’t buy an average house, you buy a house. Same goes for loan, you don’t get an average loan, you get a loan (based on your condition).

[Anonymous]

[quote=XBoxBoy][quote=JPJones][quote=deadzone][quote=spdrun]Average 30-yr was below 3% about 6 months ago. Now, it’s what, 4.25%? And the hikes are just beginning.[/quote]

Actually 4.68% today. But who’s counting? Apparently interest rates don’t impact the local housing market according to the “Professionals” on this board.[/quote]

What are your credentials? What is your source on that 4.68% number?[/quote]

I suspect that deadzone is quoting the rate listed on Mortgage News Daily. https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/

3/23/2020 the stated rate is 4.68%. Keep in mind that is an average for loans available yesterday. When sdrealtor quotes that a client just closed at such and such, that loan was started a month or more ago when rates were lower. And with points you can always lower your rate.

From my experience Mortgage news daily is well worth following if you want to see what rates are doing. The question/issue isn’t what rates are today, the question is how will these increased rates impact real estate. So far inventory numbers tell me the answer is not so much. Of course, maybe it’s too soon to tell.[/quote]

That is correct. This is an average and mortgage news daily is a trusted source often quoted by CNBC and other financial media. Of course individual loans may vary, but all loans are going up significantly in rate based on just a few months ago. And it is only going to get worse. Fed is not only raising fed funds rate this year, they are also purchasing less MBS. With less Fed involvement, there will be a lot less interest in purchasing MBS and rates will go up due to increased risk. The market has been artificially propped up by the Fed for 12 years. The Fed fueled this housing boom and with them reversing course, you can’t logically believe it won’t have severe negative consequences to housing prices.

[sdrealtor]

[quote=XBoxBoy][quote=JPJones][quote=deadzone][quote=spdrun]Average 30-yr was below 3% about 6 months ago. Now, it’s what, 4.25%? And the hikes are just beginning.[/quote]

Actually 4.68% today. But who’s counting? Apparently interest rates don’t impact the local housing market according to the “Professionals” on this board.[/quote]

What are your credentials? What is your source on that 4.68% number?[/quote]

I suspect that deadzone is quoting the rate listed on Mortgage News Daily. https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/

3/23/2020 the stated rate is 4.68%. Keep in mind that is an average for loans available yesterday. When sdrealtor quotes that a client just closed at such and such, that loan was started a month or more ago when rates were lower. And with points you can always lower your rate.

From my experience Mortgage news daily is well worth following if you want to see what rates are doing. The question/issue isn’t what rates are today, the question is how will these increased rates impact real estate. So far inventory numbers tell me the answer is not so much. Of course, maybe it’s too soon to tell.[/quote]

You are correct and of course I knew that and was just working over deadzone because it’s yet another example of how he does not understand in the slightest how real estate works. For that matter no one buys an average house or takes out an average mortgage. Average rates quoted on a site like that are for the country not here. The quality of borrower here is generally substantially higher than most places. The loans are also much bigger While still in the conventional range so the rates /fees are lower.

[scaredyclassic]

Someone somewhere
Leads an average life
In the average house
With the average wife.

Drinks an average beer
Eats average food
Watches average shows
With his average brood.

But there’s only 1 of him.

Compare:

The Lake Wobegon effect
The characterization that “all the women are strong, all the men are good-looking, and all the children are above average” has been used to describe a real and pervasive human tendency to overestimate one’s achievements and capabilities in relation to others.

[Coronita]

[quote=scaredyclassic]Someone somewhere
Leads an average life
In the average house
With the average wife.

Drinks an average beer
Eats average food
Watches average shows
With his average brood.

But there’s only 1 of him.[/quote]

Not me man.

I live in a way below average home in 92130 in the “Slums of Carmel Valley”

I can no longer afford Beverly Mira Mesa in today’s prices. Those pesky tech workers with much deeper pockets.

[scaredyclassic]

I am the mean.
You are the median.
Let us average out our differences.
A new mode.

[Coronita]

[quote=scaredyclassic]I am the mean.
You are the median.
Let us average out our differences.
A new mode.[/quote]

Real estate cost in San Diego is so brutal, I’m living 2 standard deviations above my means.

[sdrealtor]

[quote=Coronita][quote=scaredyclassic]Someone somewhere
Leads an average life
In the average house
With the average wife.

Drinks an average beer
Eats average food
Watches average shows
With his average brood.

But there’s only 1 of him.[/quote]

Not me man.

I live in a way below average home in 92130 in the “Slums of Carmel Valley”

I can no longer afford Beverly Mira Mesa in today’s prices. Those pesky tech workers with much deeper pockets.[/quote]

I’d be happy with an average tee time in the next few days. All these average WFH guys that moved here are making it tougher than ever to get one

[XBoxBoy]

[quote=scaredyclassic]
The Lake Wobegon effect
The characterization that “all the women are strong, all the men are good-looking, and all the children are above average” [/quote]

It’s fascinating to me that the characterization starts with, “all the women are strong” instead of something like “all the women are pretty” or some other stereotype of women. I’m not really sure what it says about gender stereotypes that the women are defined as strong and the men are good-looking, but I like it.

[sdrealtor]

And while National is important in the end all real estate is local. Driven by supply which is as low as anywhere here and demand which is as high as anywhere. You can follow inventory trends nationally on calculated risk among others who break it down by market. We are in the tightest market in the country.

So someday when things turn south as they inevitably will nationally and deadzone will try to claim victory from his rented hovel we will chuckle from our comfortable homes knowing we are both safely ensconced exactly where we’ve been all along. Just watching a market that is not reflective of the National market

[Anonymous]

[quote=sdrealtor]
You are correct and of course I knew that and was just working over deadzone because it’s yet another example of how he does not understand in the slightest how real estate works. For that matter no one buys an average house or takes out an average mortgage. Average rates quoted on a site like that are for the country not here. The quality of borrower here is generally substantially higher than most places. The loans are also much bigger While still in the conventional range so the rates /fees are lower.[/quote]

Ok got it, so interest rates aren’t going up in San Diego?

[an]

[quote=deadzone][quote=sdrealtor]
You are correct and of course I knew that and was just working over deadzone because it’s yet another example of how he does not understand in the slightest how real estate works. For that matter no one buys an average house or takes out an average mortgage. Average rates quoted on a site like that are for the country not here. The quality of borrower here is generally substantially higher than most places. The loans are also much bigger While still in the conventional range so the rates /fees are lower.[/quote]

Ok got it, so interest rates aren’t going up in San Diego?[/quote]
Reading comprehension is tough

[Anonymous]

[quote=an][quote=deadzone][quote=sdrealtor]
You are correct and of course I knew that and was just working over deadzone because it’s yet another example of how he does not understand in the slightest how real estate works. For that matter no one buys an average house or takes out an average mortgage. Average rates quoted on a site like that are for the country not here. The quality of borrower here is generally substantially higher than most places. The loans are also much bigger While still in the conventional range so the rates /fees are lower.[/quote]

Ok got it, so interest rates aren’t going up in San Diego?[/quote]
Reading comprehension is tough[/quote]

For you apparently. Like SDR perhaps math isn’t your strong suit. Do you also dispute that interest rates are going up? Who cares if SD rates are slightly lower or higher than the national average, that is irrelevant. They are going up everywhere at roughly the same rate. SDR thinks SD is isolated in some type of a utopian economic bubble. Sorry it doesn’t work that way. Everything is connected to the Fed.

[an]

[quote=deadzone]For you apparently. Like SDR perhaps math isn’t your strong suit. Do you also dispute that interest rates are going up? Who cares if SD rates are slightly lower or higher than the national average, that is irrelevant. They are going up everywhere at roughly the same rate. SDR thinks SD is isolated in some type of a utopian economic bubble. Sorry it doesn’t work that way. Everything is connected to the Fed.[/quote]
Nope, just you. No one ever said rates in San Diego is lower. You obviously have no idea what goes into getting a particular rate.

[Anonymous]

[quote=an][quote=deadzone]For you apparently. Like SDR perhaps math isn’t your strong suit. Do you also dispute that interest rates are going up? Who cares if SD rates are slightly lower or higher than the national average, that is irrelevant. They are going up everywhere at roughly the same rate. SDR thinks SD is isolated in some type of a utopian economic bubble. Sorry it doesn’t work that way. Everything is connected to the Fed.[/quote]
Nope, just you. No one ever said rates in San Diego is lower. You obviously have no idea what goes into getting a particular rate.[/quote]

Rates are UP across the board, and only going higher. There is no example for any type of loan, for any city, that rates have not gone up substantially in the last few months.

[sdrealtor]

[quote=deadzone][quote=an][quote=deadzone]For you apparently. Like SDR perhaps math isn’t your strong suit. Do you also dispute that interest rates are going up? Who cares if SD rates are slightly lower or higher than the national average, that is irrelevant. They are going up everywhere at roughly the same rate. SDR thinks SD is isolated in some type of a utopian economic bubble. Sorry it doesn’t work that way. Everything is connected to the Fed.[/quote]
Nope, just you. No one ever said rates in San Diego is lower. You obviously have no idea what goes into getting a particular rate.[/quote]

Rates are UP across the board, and only going higher. There is no example for any type of loan, for any city, that rates have not gone up substantially in the last few months.[/quote]

Actually I think 10/1 has not. A few months ago they barely existed and pricing was awful as no reason to take one. Now coming back with sharper pricing. Not saying they are down but definitely not up substantially. It doesn’t work how you think it works

[sdrealtor]

House in Encinitas just closed for $6M which is $300K above asking so a bidding war on it. It closed in 7 days! Wow those lenders are fast these days and congrats for locking in while rates are still low!

[Coronita]

[quote=sdrealtor]House in Encinitas just closed for $6M which is $300K above asking so a bidding war on it. It closed in 7 days! Wow those lenders are fast these days and congrats for locking in while rates are still low![/quote]

lol

[an]

[quote=deadzone]Rates are UP across the board, and only going higher. There is no example for any type of loan, for any city, that rates have not gone up substantially in the last few months.[/quote]
Strawman

[Anonymous]

[quote=an][quote=deadzone]Rates are UP across the board, and only going higher. There is no example for any type of loan, for any city, that rates have not gone up substantially in the last few months.[/quote]
Strawman[/quote]

So rates are not going up? Okay keep living in your fantasy land. Only a matter of time before it matters. San Diego RE is not immune to interest rates.

[sdrealtor]

Operators are standing by!

[limkotir]

Does anyone have historical data that highlights the correlation and causation effect of high interest rates to San Diego home sales volume and price. Maybe overlay interest rate over one of Rich’s graphs.

Simply put: how does high rate (e.g. 6% 30 year mortgage) affect sales volume, and sale price?

Home prices, like many complex real world Y-variable on a mathematical equation, probably are impacted by a handful of dynamic X variables (X1…X2…X3…etc.), it probably is never that simple and straight forward if X1 happens (interest rate), then Y will occur (sales price).

Looking to get educated by the smarter and more educated folks here! Thanks.

[sdrealtor]

[quote=limkotir]Does anyone have historical data that highlights the correlation and causation effect of high interest rates to San Diego home sales volume and price. Maybe overlay interest rate over one of Rich’s graphs.

Simply put: how does high rate (e.g. 6% 30 year mortgage) affect sales volume, and sale price?

Home prices, like many complex real world Y-variable on a mathematical equation, probably are impacted by a handful of dynamic X variables (X1…X2…X3…etc.), it probably is never that simple and straight forward if X1 happens (interest rate), then Y will occur (sales price).

Looking to get educated by the smarter and more educated folks here! Thanks.[/quote]

The challenge with that approach is rates dont rise in a vacuum. Often they rise in a booming economy or with inflation which is bullish for home prices.

[an]

[quote=sdrealtor][quote=limkotir]Does anyone have historical data that highlights the correlation and causation effect of high interest rates to San Diego home sales volume and price. Maybe overlay interest rate over one of Rich’s graphs.

Simply put: how does high rate (e.g. 6% 30 year mortgage) affect sales volume, and sale price?

Home prices, like many complex real world Y-variable on a mathematical equation, probably are impacted by a handful of dynamic X variables (X1…X2…X3…etc.), it probably is never that simple and straight forward if X1 happens (interest rate), then Y will occur (sales price).

Looking to get educated by the smarter and more educated folks here! Thanks.[/quote]

The challenge with that approach is rates dont rise in a vacuum. Often they rise in a booming economy or with inflation which is bullish for home prices.[/quote]
Exactly, which is why I keep on bringing up the 70s, because that gives us an extreme where rate went up drastically and housing price went up drastically too. So, I see no causation between rate vs prices.

[Coronita]

Ok, let’s dissect this…

[quote=deadzone]
So rates are not going up? Okay keep living in your fantasy land. Only a matter of time before it matters. San Diego RE is not immune to interest rates.
[/quote]

Part 1
[quote=deadzone]
So rates are not going up?
[/quote]

Who on this thread is arguing that rates aren’t going up? Name one person on this thread….

Part 2
[quote]
Okay keep living in your fantasy land. Only a matter of time before it matters. San Diego RE is not immune to interest rates.
[/quote]

No one, except you, is making any predictions on when rates will start affecting purchases. You, however, are hell bent on “proving” it’s soon.

Let’s hypothetically say that it’s 10 years (length of a 10/1 arm) before rates really matter. Did you win? Yes, from an argument perspective. From a financial/home purchase perspective, you probably lost. If you’re going to be waiting 10 years before your first home purchase, ouch. Again, the only person you are arguing with is yourself.

Hope it’s worth it for you.

[an]

[quote=Coronita]…Again, the only person you are arguing with is yourself.

Hope it’s worth it for you.[/quote]
Yep, which is why I keep staying strawman…

[Anonymous]

[quote=an][quote=Coronita]…Again, the only person you are arguing with is yourself.

Hope it’s worth it for you.[/quote]
Yep, which is why I keep staying strawman…[/quote]

No you guys seem to want to argue with me whatever I say, hope that is fun for you. But back to the topic at hand, the thread was about impact of 4% interest rates. On a national level we’ve blown past that already.
This morning, mortgage market is taking an absolute crap, again. At this rate, we will be over 5% (on mortgage daily news national average) any day now.

[sdrealtor]

Mortgage still available at 4.25% on a national level. 10/1 ARM much lower!
Operators are standing by!

[Anonymous]

[quote=sdrealtor]Mortgage still available at 4.25% on a national level. 10/1 ARM much lower!
Operators are standing by![/quote]

Not for long

[sdrealtor]

[quote=deadzone][quote=sdrealtor]Mortgage still available at 4.25% on a national level. 10/1 ARM much lower!
Operators are standing by![/quote]

Not for long[/quote]

Don’t make haste! Limited time offer! Opportunity of a lifetime!

[Anonymous]

[quote=sdrealtor][quote=deadzone][quote=sdrealtor]Mortgage still available at 4.25% on a national level. 10/1 ARM much lower!
Operators are standing by![/quote]

Not for long[/quote]

Don’t make haste! Limited time offer! Opportunity of a lifetime![/quote]

30yr fixed up to 4.95% according to MND.
Better jump on it quick. Opportunity of a Lifetime!

[sdrealtor]

[quote=deadzone][quote=sdrealtor][quote=deadzone][quote=sdrealtor]Mortgage still available at 4.25% on a national level. 10/1 ARM much lower!
Operators are standing by![/quote]

Not for long[/quote]

Don’t make haste! Limited time offer! Opportunity of a lifetime![/quote]

30yr fixed up to 4.95% according to MND.
Better jump on it quick. Opportunity of a Lifetime![/quote]

Sorry locked in at 2.625% which was TRULY the GOOAL missed by you!!!

[an]

[quote=sdrealtor][quote=deadzone][quote=sdrealtor][quote=deadzone][quote=sdrealtor]Mortgage still available at 4.25% on a national level. 10/1 ARM much lower!
Operators are standing by![/quote]

Not for long[/quote]

Don’t make haste! Limited time offer! Opportunity of a lifetime![/quote]

30yr fixed up to 4.95% according to MND.
Better jump on it quick. Opportunity of a Lifetime![/quote]Sorry locked in at 2.625% which was TRULY the GOOAL missed by you!!![/quote]
I missed that absolute bottom as well, but luckily, I was able to locked in @3.125% for 30 years. Based on deadzone, I’m almost 2% below current rate, yay!

[Anonymous]

Then you guys should be loving this interest rate movement, embrace it.

[sdrealtor]

What a silly comment! I neither like nor dislike an interest rate. I am ambivalent. They are what they are and I will just pay attention and figure out how to take advantage of whatever happens with that. If they go down we buy more property. If they go up we invest in fixed-income. Whatever will be will be because we took advantage of the opportunity of a lifetime!

[an]

[quote=sdrealtor]What a silly comment! I neither like nor dislike an interest rate. I am ambivalent. They are what they are and I will just pay attention and figure out how to take advantage of whatever happens with that. If they go down we buy more property. If they go up we invest in fixed-income. Whatever will be will be because we took advantage of the opportunity of a lifetime![/quote]
Exactly! There’s opportunity when rate goes up and there’s opportunity when rate goes down. Like you, I neither like or hate interest rise.

[Anonymous]

[quote=sdrealtor]What a silly comment! I neither like nor dislike an interest rate. I am ambivalent. They are what they are and I will just pay attention and figure out how to take advantage of whatever happens with that. If they go down we buy more property. If they go up we invest in fixed-income. Whatever will be will be because we took advantage of the opportunity of a lifetime![/quote]

Right…. so why do you get defensive when I bring up the fact that interest rates are skyrocketing? Make excuses like “RE is local”. That is lame. Rising interest rates are bad for RE values everywhere, you know that.

[sdrealtor]

Defensive? Are you kidding? I am factual! I am presenting what is actually going on out there not your hopes and dreams

[Anonymous]

[quote=sdrealtor]Defensive? Are you kidding? I am factual! I am presenting what is actually going on out there not your hopes and dreams[/quote]

Well good. Then just stick with the facts and before long you will be able to report 5% mortgages and falling prices.

[sdrealtor]

[quote=deadzone][quote=sdrealtor]Defensive? Are you kidding? I am factual! I am presenting what is actually going on out there not your hopes and dreams[/quote]

Well good. Then just stick with the facts and before long you will be able to report 5% mortgages and falling prices.[/quote]

When they do I will but until then operators are still standing by. Of course whenever I bring facts you deny they are real so there’s that

[Anonymous]

[quote=sdrealtor][quote=deadzone][quote=sdrealtor]Defensive? Are you kidding? I am factual! I am presenting what is actually going on out there not your hopes and dreams[/quote]

Well good. Then just stick with the facts and before long you will be able to report 5% mortgages and falling prices.[/quote]

When they do I will but until then operators are still standing by. Of course whenever I bring facts you deny they are real so there’s that[/quote]

Operators will be standing by when rates go to 6% and 7% too, they’ll just be fielding a lot less calls.

[sdrealtor]

Then maybe just maybe you will finally be able to get them to take your call

[sdrealtor]

Just ran into my favorite lender over coffee. Here is latest, at least while we were having coffee as things are moving around quickly (up and down through out the day). Just some data points here as they are likely different by the time you read this.

Conventional 30 yr 4.5%
Jumbo 30 yr (portfolio loan) 4.125%
10/1 arm 3.625%

[Coronita]

[quote=sdrealtor]Just ran into my favorite lender over coffee. Here is latest, at least while we were having coffee as things are moving around quickly (up and down through out the day). Just some data points here as they are likely different by the time you read this.

Conventional 30 yr 4.5%
Jumbo 30 yr (portfolio loan) 4.125%
10/1 arm 3.625%[/quote]

Interesting. Why are jumbos lower than conventional. I think for many purchases out here, especially MM, that would be Jumbo.

[sdrealtor]

I believe it has to do with Fannie and Freddie Mac guidelines that keep them a little higher. Lenders doing portfolio (loans held in a portfolio and not sold off to a government intermediary ) jumbo loans are a little lower.

[an]

.

[sdrealtor]

[quote=an][quote=deadzone][quote=sdrealtor]
You are correct and of course I knew that and was just working over deadzone because it’s yet another example of how he does not understand in the slightest how real estate works. For that matter no one buys an average house or takes out an average mortgage. Average rates quoted on a site like that are for the country not here. The quality of borrower here is generally substantially higher than most places. The loans are also much bigger While still in the conventional range so the rates /fees are lower.[/quote]

Ok got it, so interest rates aren’t going up in San Diego?[/quote]
Reading comprehension is tough[/quote]

He lives in a dark hole unaware all real estate is local. Some places it was flat during the bubble while others doubled. Some places are up a little during the pandemic expansion some are up a lot. No place is average except scardey’s kitchen but even that is underconstruction and being remodeled! Gooal!

[Coronita]

I think the other angle is people just simply move into a different loan product for example 10/1 arms. This might seem like a bad product but is it? For example I took out a 30 year loan originally refinanced 30-year a few times and then refinance to a 15 year at the end of it I paid off my loan in 10 years. 10/1 probably would have been okay for me, might have been better

[Coronita]

San Diego County:

Conforming loans – up to $647,200.
Super Conforming loans – between $647,201 and $879,750.
Jumbo loans – Over $879,750

For the rest of CA:

[quote]
Some of the high-cost areas of California include:

Alameda – $970,800
Contra Costa – $970,800
El Dorado – $675,050
Los Angeles – $970,800
Marin – $970,800
Monterey – $854,450
Napa – $897,000
Orange – $970,800
Placer – $675,050
Sacramento – $675,050
San Benito – $970,800
San Diego – $879,750
San Francisco – $970,800
San Luis Obispo – $805,000
San Mateo – $970,800
Santa Barbara – $783,150
Santa Clara – $970,800
Santa Cruz – $970,800
Solano – $647,200
Sonoma – $764,750
Ventura – $851,000
Yolo – $675,050
[/quote]

2023 California Conforming and FHA County Loan Limits

Riverside is $647k

[evolusd]

Selling my mom’s townhome up in LA. Buyer’s loan has a rate of 4.875%. Ouch.

[sdrealtor]

[quote=evolusd]Selling my mom’s townhome up in LA. Buyer’s loan has a rate of 4.875%. Ouch.[/quote]

Yup condo rates are higher and must not have great credit or good down. Thats about 0.5% above current market for good buyers

[scaredyclassic]

I paid .5 perc more for a jumbo 10 years ago. We still joke about how fucked we felt we were for having a jumbo loan. My wife was so happy when we refined out of a jumb.

Don’t like the word jumbo attached to a debt. Why not humongous? Gargantuan? Gifuckinormous? Couldn’t tptb just go with regular and large?

[trex]

Plus size!

[scaredyclassic]

Megadebt. Band name, potential copyright infringement of megadeath

[Anonymous]

30 year fixed over 5% today according to Mortgage News Daily.

[sdrealtor]

Hooray!! Now what?

[Anonymous]

For years interest rates near zero created the current housing and asset bubble. Now with interest rates rising, rapidly, it’s going to crush that bubble.
You can’t seriously argue that interest rates don’t matter.

[XBoxBoy]

[quote=deadzone]30 year fixed over 5% today according to Mortgage News Daily.[/quote]

When the pandemic first hit I thought, “Boy, that will clobber the housing market.” After all, the economy was likely to go into recession, and people would become cautious. No way people would start buying houses like crazy. Of course, I was about as wrong as I could be.

A year ago, when interest rates started rising, I thought, “Boy, if interest rates get to 5%, that will cause the housing market to slam on the brakes. People won’t be able to afford these crazy prices with 5% loans.” Yet here we are with a housing market that is still rocking. Inventory in the area I watch (La Jolla) has dropped in the last couple of weeks from its already incredibly low level. So it seems I was wrong about 5% interest rates slowing the market.

Now I don’t know what to think. It seems hard to imagine that the pace of price increases will continue. But I’ve thought that for a long time and prices just keep going up at an astounding rate. Inflation will help justify some of the increases, but until inventory increases a lot I doubt we see price drops. Then again, I’ve been wrong before, maybe I am again.

[sdrealtor]

People want to buy houses and there are enough sufficiently motivated to do so around here to at least keep things close to where they are for the foreseeable future. There are plenty of adjustable loan products that were unnecessary with rates at 3 and lower. Those products will come back into mainstream favor just you wait. Just you wait

[Anonymous]

[quote=XBoxBoy][quote=deadzone]30 year fixed over 5% today according to Mortgage News Daily.[/quote]

When the pandemic first hit I thought, “Boy, that will clobber the housing market.” After all, the economy was likely to go into recession, and people would become cautious. No way people would start buying houses like crazy. Of course, I was about as wrong as I could be.

A year ago, when interest rates started rising, I thought, “Boy, if interest rates get to 5%, that will cause the housing market to slam on the brakes. People won’t be able to afford these crazy prices with 5% loans.” Yet here we are with a housing market that is still rocking. Inventory in the area I watch (La Jolla) has dropped in the last couple of weeks from its already incredibly low level. So it seems I was wrong about 5% interest rates slowing the market.

Now I don’t know what to think. It seems hard to imagine that the pace of price increases will continue. But I’ve thought that for a long time and prices just keep going up at an astounding rate. Inflation will help justify some of the increases, but until inventory increases a lot I doubt we see price drops. Then again, I’ve been wrong before, maybe I am again.[/quote]

Prices went up during Covid primarily because the Fed printed over 4 trillion dollars and doubled their balance sheet in less than 2 years. If the Fed follows through with their threats to tighten, prices have nowhere to go but down.

[scaredyclassic]

Animal spirits …

[sdrealtor]

[quote=deadzone][quote=XBoxBoy][quote=deadzone]30 year fixed over 5% today according to Mortgage News Daily.[/quote]

When the pandemic first hit I thought, “Boy, that will clobber the housing market.” After all, the economy was likely to go into recession, and people would become cautious. No way people would start buying houses like crazy. Of course, I was about as wrong as I could be.

A year ago, when interest rates started rising, I thought, “Boy, if interest rates get to 5%, that will cause the housing market to slam on the brakes. People won’t be able to afford these crazy prices with 5% loans.” Yet here we are with a housing market that is still rocking. Inventory in the area I watch (La Jolla) has dropped in the last couple of weeks from its already incredibly low level. So it seems I was wrong about 5% interest rates slowing the market.

Now I don’t know what to think. It seems hard to imagine that the pace of price increases will continue. But I’ve thought that for a long time and prices just keep going up at an astounding rate. Inflation will help justify some of the increases, but until inventory increases a lot I doubt we see price drops. Then again, I’ve been wrong before, maybe I am again.[/quote]

Prices went up during Covid primarily because the Fed printed over 4 trillion dollars and doubled their balance sheet in less than 2 years. If the Fed follows through with their threats to tighten, prices have nowhere to go but down.[/quote]

Darn I missed the bonfire where they torched that 4 trillion

[The-Shoveler]

XXL

[sdrealtor]

Not really. Owner took over house from parents who are still in area. Looks like owner got himself in a bit of trouble several years ago but now has career with high level position in biotech. Its first time house was on market. Listed at 1.3 and bid up to current level. Maybe you know something I dont?

[sdrealtor]

I’ve been saying this was gonna happen for a year. Now media is recognizing it also. Higher rates will hurt as much as help

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/mortgage-rate-trap-housing-market-203108693.html

[limkotir]

[quote=sdrealtor]I’ve been saying this was gonna happen for a year. Now media is recognizing it also. Higher rates will hurt as much as help

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/mortgage-rate-trap-housing-market-203108693.html%5B/quote%5D

Prop 13 in the form and name of historical low 30-year fixed mortgage rate — for those that are benefitting from it, perhaps even more profoundly impactful, since it’s likely their biggest overhead cost, mortgage, is FIXED for the next 28-30 years.

[sdrealtor]

But taxes have long been basically fixed. In a declining rate environment people refinance or moved and could get another sub 3% loan. With those no longer available many with them will stay put while inflation does the heavy lifting. Higher rates hurt as much as they help the balance of supply and demand

[Author]

Posts