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sdrealtor
ParticipantWalmart is working on a big push into eHealth. They’ll be one of the biggest providers of primary care in a few years. Amazon is also
ParticipantCongrats! Great month for you. How have you fared since pandemic? Since Jan 2020. It’s been quite a ride!
Participant[quote=deadzone][quote=flyer]dz, I think you might underestimate the many sources of wealth some have, other than the obvious, and who have been living the lives they want to live for many years mostly independent of market conditions.
Per this discussion, whether this, or other demographics are large enough to sustain the continued acceleration of pricing in the real estate market remains to be seen, and should be interesting to watch.[/quote]
There is no doubt the primary source of wealth in the U.S. comes from RE and Stock appreciation. If those markets take a 30 or 40% haircut, the reverse wealth effect will be staggering.[/quote]
What is staggering and devastating is how big of a failure it was not to buy a home 20 or even 10 years ago. All you had to do was be responsible and make payments. As your salary increased add a little to the payment each month. As rates dropped, refi to lower your rate but keep paying the same monthly payment. Thats really all you had to do. Paid off home at retirement with low RE tax bill, no rent or monthly mortgage payment.
Other simple things. When electric bills spiked, add solar and get rid of electric bill. When drought came, get rid of lawn, put in xeriscape, cut water bill to next to nothing and fire landscaper. When gas got expensive get a hybrid or EV. The road map was simple and obvious to anyone paying attention. Then retire whenever you want with fixed monthly expenses well under $2K and social security almost double that. Pensions, 401K, IRA’s, passive income, dividends, driving Uber, working at In n Out? Whatever floats your boat but mostly gravy. FU$ was that easy!
Participant[quote=deadzone][quote=Coronita][quote=JPJones]Well, there it is:
Word is he walked back his full-time-in-the-office ultimatum, too, to just 2-3 days a week with first-come-first-served seating. This guy is scumbag, not a leader.[/quote]
Forcing people back to the office is going to work only
(1)for employees that want to come back to the office
and hate working at home all the time, like meOr
(2)for employees that are unemployable elsewhere and who do not have enough fuck you money yet and still need a job to pay for basic rent and living expenses.[/quote]
I think you greatly over-exaggerate how many people have “Fuck You money”. Fact is there will be industry wide layoffs this year, a lot of folks who were previously making big salaries will be on unemployment. That is not good for housing market.[/quote]
I think you greatly underestimate it as well as how many are comfortably seated in a great position without the need for FU$ to walk away. I see friend after friend saying I could keep doing this for another 5 to 10 years but Im done. Time to enjoy it all.
How come we didnt see you here yesterday?
ParticipantInteresting RSU conversation this weekend. One of my college buddies was in town for the weekend. He’s a C level biz dev guy in the digital world and has been for well over 2 decades. He makes a big salary but the equity is what drives him. He’s in digital health and has helped turn his current employer from near bankruptcy a few years ago to signing deals with some of the biggest players in the space. They have a $1B + valuation and should have a liquidity event (IPO or sale in next few years). He is 2 months from fully vesting in his equity and even if they wanted to get rid of him they couldnt before that anniversary. He just told the CEO you need to reload me with equity or Im leaving. I asked him why he would leave with the company on the verge of great things on his efforts. He said no more upside and he can take his show lots of places.
He’s coming up on 60 and held big equity positions in 5 different ehealth start ups that he acquired the last 13 years through employment or as an advisor. Last year he was able to cash in on 2 of them and has learned the value of spreading his chips around. He has been in the biz since the 80’s and founded an internet company he sold. The acquirer was on the verge of a merger with a major Telco that the CEO blocked because he wanted to be CEO of merged company only for the Internet bubble to burst and my friend along with his co-founders and employees each lost over $10M. So now he will only work someplace 3 to 4 years to fully vest unless they reload his equity. He’s got one maybe two more chances and when he’s done he’ll be coming here. Looking forward to it. great guy, great friend
ParticipantI’ll PM you the answer
Participant[quote=sdduuuude][quote=Coronita][quote=sdduuuude][quote=sdrealtor]… this place has been reborn the last few years with young families.[/quote]
Interesting to hear you say that. Around Carmel Valley, people are talking about the fact that enrollment is dropping at the local schools because this is NOT happening. People moved to the area with their kids back in the 2000’s and not leaving now that their kids are college aged or older.[/quote]
Is enrollment really dropping? If so, not sure why they are opening a new elementary school near PTMS and CCA.[/quote]
Because they were slated to build those to support all the new development in CV Ranch. Solana Highlands, Carmel Creek, Solana Pacific are seeing smaller enrollment and are trying to change structure (i.e. which grades are at which schools) amid the reductions and it is a little messy.[/quote]
I don’t know that it happened there but this is what kinda happened here. We all moved in the late 90s as young families when things were affordable. Prices spiked and a bunch of families took the mid 6 figure gains and moved back to their hometowns elsewhere to live in some of the nicest homes where they were from for all or mostly cash. That happened during the bubble era. With prices high young families couldn’t afford homes around us as easily and most were sold to families with high school age kids and empty nesters. With low interest rates the last decade highly paid young professionals could buy here again and came in droves. The neighborhoods are full of young kids again which has been nice. Now prices are high again and lowest rates past. I’d expect the influx of young families to slow for a while
Participant[quote=sdduuuude][quote=sdrealtor]… this place has been reborn the last few years with young families.[/quote]
Interesting to hear you say that. Around Carmel Valley, people are talking about the fact that enrollment is dropping at the local schools because this is NOT happening. People moved to the area with their kids back in the 2000’s and not leaving now that their kids are college aged or older.[/quote]
We went through that in the bubble era and burst but this time we are getting lots of young families. Our enrollment dropped then also.
ParticipantUpdate time. Got a doozy this week and an example of why anyone who thinks the outcome is predetermined is kidding themselves. Not only do we put the Canary on hold but perhaps we just return it to the petshop altogether.
New listings 7 (23) – you read that right! Only 7! Thats a December holiday season number not a peak listing week number.
New Pendings of 21 (32) – solid number given levels this year indicating relative balance
Thats -14
Closed sales at 26 –
Total houses for sale 71 (57) with median of $2.145M ($2M). Thats a good size drop from last week and would not be surprised to see us negative y-o-y again in another 2 to 3 weeks
I do think the 7 new listings was a bit of an outlier and see a bunch queued up in Coming Soon status. Wouldnt be shocked to see 30+ this week. I think we will get back to more typical numbers quickly but just the same it was an eye opener. We get 2 or 3 weeks like this and we can get down to strong sellers market territory again quickly. Not saying its gonna but it could as we just saw.
Pendings are slow and steady with crazy bidding wars done but its far from a buyers market here. Looking at the market about 20% is what I would consider high end and not part of the everyday market. With tract homes now selling into the $3M’s I consider the high end here starting around $4M. Still a head scratcher for me
After this week it could be a struggle to get inventory over 100. Im thinking over 120 is unlikely this year and 150 outside the realm given recent activity. So expect things to remain in sellers favor this year
ParticipantMM still in balance thus far.
New listings 8 (10) –
New Pendings of 11 (15) – this was one of the biggest pending weeks of the last year and it is again this year
Closed sales at 10 (3) –
Inventory at 22 with median of 1.085M. Last year it was 16 with median of 885K.
Market seems well balanced. Some optimitic sellers still out there overpriced but also some doing a good job adjusting until they find market level. Overall this feels like a market that is not going much down or up. Nice and steady
May 31, 2022 at 8:27 PM in reply to: SF city RE prices down to 2017 prices due to crime wave and WFH #825808Participant[quote=Escoguy][quote=Coronita][quote=Escoguy][quote=Coronita]Living in the city sucks. I don’t know why my sibling insists in staying in SF and not moving to the burbs. They are paying an arm an a leg for something slightly smaller than my old house in Pac. Heights and then on top of that has to send both their kids to private schools because most public schools suck in the city. The amount they spend on private K-12 will be on the order of how much people would be spending sending them to a private college on the east coast.
I guess it could be worse. At least they don’t live in NYC anymore. What an armpit.Makes no sense.[/quote]
Was out ubering a few days ago, picked up a SF transplant, he and his spouse paid $5700/month in San Francisco for $700 sf, now live in Santaluz, probably a $2.5M house.
As he has roots here and has been back two years, he was bemoaning all the other Bay Area people coming in. Apparently, there is still a wave incoming as prices are still so much higher and they come see SD, and never want to go back.[/quote]
I have to admit, escoguy….
It is so fvcking awesome you Uber drive…. Most of the people who you pick up don’t even know how well off you are.I swear, you should consider doing a “Cash Cab” like game show.
Can I trade free DIY auto repair/service with free rides to the airport?? :)[/quote]
My wife thinks I’m crazy to Uber in a Model S, but passengers do get kicks out of it.
A dad took a selfie with his son in front of the car Sunday, they were so excited.
Another guy did a video call with his son in Cozumel to show the car.One can learn a lot from passengers, they share so much about their lives and probably 95% are great. Occasionally, a few can be a touch pretentious.
I’d like to think it helps me refine my people skills and keeps me grounded.
Have to admit, after not being out there during the pandemic, it’s nice to be out driving again and seeing the vibe of San Diego, really so much to do here.Oddly, I’ve managed to get to know a few neighbors this way, within half an hour had a family of Russian refugees coming from TJ, then a group coming from a wedding in Rancho Santa Fe. Kind of wakes you up to what is going on around us.
As far as money, no I don’t bring that up, if so in indirect terms about appreciating things in life. Some people need a little direction and really listen. It’s odd but one can have an impact in unexpected places.[/quote]
One of my college buddies son’s got married at the Inn at Rancho Santa Fe on Sunday. I think the brides family might live here. A bunch of friends came in for it this weekend. If it was any of them Id guess you had a car full of very nice folks. I actually had another college buddy in town to entertain. We thought about popping in to say hi but were busy with plans ourselves
Participant[quote=Pbranding][quote=sdrealtor]As someone living in a community with a large and amazing HOA this couldnt be more wrong. My HOA adds tons of value to my and many neighbors lives.[/quote]
Sdr sounds like you get a lot for your 100/month and in your situation I agree but 600/month for no pool, no gate, and the trails are open to anyone? I think that’s harder to swallow and I think it will discourage would be buyers in the future when it’s not shiny and new.[/quote]
Yes I agree we get a lot and are probably on the far end of that. Our parks and traisl are not restricted nor is there a gate. A decade or so ago we dedicated the trails to become part of the Carlsbad trail system. The city now maintains them for us in return for us opening them to public though they always kinda were anyway. It saves us some money and they can include us on their trail maps.
Just pointing out that an HOA does not automatically devalue a property. As for the one you are describing how it impacts it in the future depends upon market conditions. In a buyers market it could be a significant drag. In a sellers market it gets larely ignored.
ParticipantAs someone living in a community with a large and amazing HOA this couldnt be more wrong. My HOA adds tons of value to my and many neighbors lives. We have amazing parks for our kids to play in. Its my swim club. Its my tennis/pickleball club. Its my gym. Its my running trails. Its the catered Memorial day BBQ/Chili cook off that I took friends to yesterday for no charge. Its the beautiful grounds and landscaping I marvel at on my walks to get coffee each morning. For just over $100/month I get incredible value. There would have been no way to estimate the water and landscaping bill for the massive space we take care. The invention of the game pickle ball. The cost for redoing our swim club next year which will be around $1M and we have the reserves set aside to do. The clubhouse which has hosted thousands of birthday parties, weddings, bar mitzvahs and company meetings/parties over the years. This only begins to scracth the surface. There is no discounte dpresent value there is additional value and it is a big reason our home prices are higher than surrounding non-hoa communties
May 31, 2022 at 1:26 PM in reply to: SF city RE prices down to 2017 prices due to crime wave and WFH #825794ParticipantI understand how tough it can be up there. One of my childhood friends lives up in Woodside and wanted to build a 2nd tennis court on his 5 acre property but was not allowed. He was gonna move but bought the property next to him so now they have 2 courts
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